YouSaid · the spoken record

Eddy Elfenbein

lines on the record: 53
first: 2023-01-27
most recent: 2023-01-27
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

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“And so we're just growing, thriving, getting more converts out there. So it's been at a great learning experience. Now, we can also have, I'm on Twitter at Eddie Elfenbein at Eddie Elfenbein. And then at SubStack, it's cws.com where I have my newsletters, the free newsletter if you just want to try that out. That comes out every Tuesday. And then if you want to join us for the premium letter, that's $20 a month or $200 for a whole year. And that comes out. I date it for Friday morning. And I've been doing that for a couple years now. And I really enjoy it.”
2023-01-27 · We Study Billionaires · TIP518: The "Buy" List for 2023 w/ Eddy Elfenbein · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“We do well, I do well, if we don't do well, I don't do well. So my interests are aligned with yours. We're this tiny fund and we were the first ones. They're open-ended funds, but we were the first ETF to do that. I never chose a ticker symbol before, so that was something a unique experience. So CWS was open. So we jumped on that. It's traded onto New York. It's called the New York Arca. So those of you may remember, that was the archipelago, which was bought by the NYSE, which is owned by ICE, which is another buy-list stock. If you were to buy one share of each of the 25 stocks on the buy list, that would run about $4,500. But you can get the whole thing in one package. I think it's right now about $47,000, $48 per share. We started at $25 back in September of 20.”
2023-01-27 · We Study Billionaires · TIP518: The "Buy" List for 2023 w/ Eddy Elfenbein · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I promise I won't give you the hard sell on the ETF, but the ticker symbol is CWS. And I started this with my business partner. I never thought, how do you just start an ETF? But we did if we were able to get, and I think I looked at the latest numbers and I think every year hundreds of ETFs close up shop were in our seventh year. I looked for the numbers earlier today. I think we're going to close at an all-time high for AUM assets under management. We are growing and thriving. We beat the market. We just got our fifth star from Morningstar. We were also in the first ETF in the history of the world to have a fulcrum fee. So the fee, if we don't beat the market, then the fees go down. If we do beat the market, then I get a little bonus. The fees go up. So it all depends basically. If I do.”
2023-01-27 · We Study Billionaires · TIP518: The "Buy" List for 2023 w/ Eddy Elfenbein · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“But the AMAS family that runs AFLAC. These are people I really have a high degree of faith in. I remember when the terrible earthquake happened in Japan, and Dan Amos, the CEO, said, on Monday morning, when we go to work, we plan for exactly what is happening now. So we have this covered. And having that is such an enormous benefit when you go about investing the level of trust that you can place in management like that.”
2023-01-27 · We Study Billionaires · TIP518: The "Buy" List for 2023 w/ Eddy Elfenbein · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“How would you replace Silgan tomorrow? It would be very, very difficult. I like to look for companies with management I trust. So I like to hear companies do not have to give earnings forecasts. There's nothing in the rules that say they have to do that. But I like companies that do and I like companies that you know that these earnings forecasts are reasonably accurate. I don't need them to be right. I just need them to understand the problems. I like to hear companies talk about the problems that they're having. Also, if you just reiterate earnings, that's often dismissed, but I think that's a good news to say companies saying things are going to plan as planned this year. And they still are going planned. So I never overlook a reiteration of earnings. I want to just have a great deal of trust in the management. You can never be 100% perfect.”
2023-01-27 · We Study Billionaires · TIP518: The "Buy" List for 2023 w/ Eddy Elfenbein · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Would say mostly what I do is I like to look at the annual reports, the 10 Qs, the 10Ks, look at what they're doing, and look at their competitors. Whenever I talk with officers of a company, I always like to ask, what do they think of their competitors? That's always an interesting line of inquiry. And I talked to management, talk to the people in investor relations, see what the company is doing. I also pay a lot of attention to the stability of the business. I pay a lot of attention to their market position. For example, SAIC, if you're in the Pentagon, you're going to have to deal with them at some point because they're just so important to what the mission is of the Pentagon. It's companies like that that you want to find that it will be very difficult to replace them. I think I talked about how.”
2023-01-27 · We Study Billionaires · TIP518: The "Buy" List for 2023 w/ Eddy Elfenbein · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“You know, people ask, they treat the rules of the bylist as if it's a hindrance. And in many ways, I see it as a benefit because so 25 stocks we turn over five each year. So that means the average holding period of five years. So when you add a Selenese or a Middleby, you think, okay, if the stock market were to shut down for the next five years on average, will I be comfortable owning Middlebe five years from now? Yes, I would. It forces you to think that way because you know you are going to be married to this stock for quite some time. Affleck, it's on for its 18th year, Pfizer. That's also on for its 18th year. Truly makes them valuable? Will they continue to be around in five years or ten years?”
2023-01-27 · We Study Billionaires · TIP518: The "Buy" List for 2023 w/ Eddy Elfenbein · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Want to know, oh, it's involved in artificial intelligence, or it's involved in something with DNA technology or cybersecurity or blockchain. They want to get into the concept. That's not so important. A company can be as dull as dirt and American Waterworks certainly is, and it's been a huge, huge winner over the last 14 years. And in fact, to your point, it's pretty pricey now. I think it's 34 times trailing earnings or maybe forward earnings as well. Also, the earnings line, or the operating earnings, is nice and smooth. I really like to see that as an investment analyst. It really helps out seeing with the complete opposite would be selling ease, where it's all over the map. But it's a cool company, just too expensive right now. I probably should have said that in the newsletter.”
2023-01-27 · We Study Billionaires · TIP518: The "Buy" List for 2023 w/ Eddy Elfenbein · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I'm thinking $160, I think, is where they are now. So up nearly eightfold. It's been a huge winner. As you said, it's been up handsomely since October. So boring stocks can be great investments. And companies that nobody had any interest in, once they're cut loose from the mothership, they're free to do what they want. In many ways, they're much better at managing themselves. So the point I wanted to make to investors is that there's always a place where you could find good stocks. And the thing is when people are told, oh, here's a company to invest in, the first question to ask is, well, what do they do? And that's actually not the most important question. The most important question is how well do they do whatever it is they do? And I almost feel so many novice investors that”
2023-01-27 · We Study Billionaires · TIP518: The "Buy" List for 2023 w/ Eddy Elfenbein · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I said such nice things about it, and I did. So in the Tuesday newsletter, I like to highlight stocks and I want to draw lessons from that. And this is an interesting company because it's completely boring. It's a water utility company. And nobody had any hopes for this stock whatsoever. It was spun off by a European subsidiary in 2008. And when they were going to do the IPO, there was no interest in. They talked about, would it be 25, $26 per share? No. It finally went off at $21.50. This was in 2008 and the conglomerate got rid of it because they thought it was a no growth area and it was an anchor to them. Nobody on Wall Street was interested in them. And it has been a fantastic success story.”
2023-01-27 · We Study Billionaires · TIP518: The "Buy" List for 2023 w/ Eddy Elfenbein · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“How the Fed responds? Is it the broadness? But my fear is that unemployment in the housing sector stand right between the Federal Reserve and its goals for inflation. So they are sort of the collateral damage, but we almost always know that's going to happen. My fear is that unemployment rate will rise this year and almost will have to rise this year.”
2023-01-27 · We Study Billionaires · TIP518: The "Buy" List for 2023 w/ Eddy Elfenbein · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Oh boy, that is a really good question. I just don't know exactly. I would probably think, you know, around 5% or so to see that real. There is the SOM rule for the economist, which is seeing, I think, interest rates go up by half a percent from their low or an average of the low. So that would bring us up to 4% or so. I think that's very possible. Now the issue that could put a hamper into that is this disjointed nature of the economy where we're seeing housing hit hard, but other areas of the economy are doing just well. In fact, there was just an article in the New York Times talking about how this recession may fall harshly or unevenly on white-collar workers compared to blue-collar workers. I don't know if that will be true. So that could impact”
2023-01-27 · We Study Billionaires · TIP518: The "Buy" List for 2023 w/ Eddy Elfenbein · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Mr. Bostick was very, very forthright on this comments earlier this week. I just don't see it happening. And we see it's not just me, but it's in the future's market. It's in those analysts that you just quoted. The Fed is here and the market is here.”
2023-01-27 · We Study Billionaires · TIP518: The "Buy" List for 2023 w/ Eddy Elfenbein · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Of Fed officials coming out with strong rhetoric, tough talk that they're going to keep rates high. They're not worried about the after effects of it, and they're going to fight inflation until inflation is defeated. It's very easy for them to speak that way, to issue tough talk, but to follow through on that is much more difficult. If the economy continues to weaken through this year, which I think is very likely, I think the Federal Reserve will hold off on its interest rate increases. And in fact, the futures market thinks that the Fed will be cutting interest rates before the end of this year. In fact, interest rates will probably be at the same place they are right now, one year from now. There'll be some minor increases and then some minor decreases. But the Fed, particularly...”
2023-01-27 · We Study Billionaires · TIP518: The "Buy" List for 2023 w/ Eddy Elfenbein · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Will be 6.517 four six two. I don't know, but as I said, more important is that trend. So it's been going, the peak was 7.1, and we're talking about the year-over-year rate has declined for the last five months in a row. And I think it's very likely that will be number six we'll learn tomorrow. I'm not worried about the specific numbers, but it's the trend that inflation appears to be receding. I'm not saying it's fully receded or we're in the safe zone yet, but the trend is going in the right direction. Part of that is due to some problems with the economy, most particularly in the housing sector. This is due to the Federal Reserve's higher interest rates. So the context of the bit that you read before was a number”
2023-01-27 · We Study Billionaires · TIP518: The "Buy" List for 2023 w/ Eddy Elfenbein · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“They don't do any trading. I understand what you're saying. Okay, you're calling me lazy. I understand newsletter through SubStack. I started writing the newsletter back in 2010. And it's basically the same thing. I would send it out. So there are two newsletters I do. There's a free one that goes out every Tuesday. And then there's the premium paid one that goes out late Thursday night. I date it for Friday. And every once in a while I'll have special newsletters as something important has happened that I want to talk about. The Tuesday letter is more of a general discussion about the markets and the economy where the premium version talks more about exactly how we should go about investing and what areas look good right now. And I sort of break down the companies what I like. And I enjoy it. It's a lot of fun. And it keeps me busy.”
2023-01-27 · We Study Billionaires · TIP518: The "Buy" List for 2023 w/ Eddy Elfenbein · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Deal closed in November. They announced it in February, just closed it in November. It's an interesting company, and I think this deal will make them even stronger.”
2023-01-27 · We Study Billionaires · TIP518: The "Buy" List for 2023 w/ Eddy Elfenbein · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, we're interested and they did a massive deal for the DuPont unit. And it cost $11 billion. So if you see on the balance sheet right now, you see a huge cash position, I think, of nine and a half billion. And this is a not just an acquisition, but they're merging with a company about their same size. So it's a huge, huge deal that they're doing. And the stock did not do well at all last year. And I think some of that was a reaction. As I look at the numbers, I think it's a good deal. But let's just say Warren Buffett is sitting on a big loss right now in Selenese. But I like it. And I think this deal can be a game changer. Again, I think they said it's going to be accretive to earning something like $4 per share this year. So the”
2023-01-27 · We Study Billionaires · TIP518: The "Buy" List for 2023 w/ Eddy Elfenbein · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“They make acetic acid, and that is something that has a huge number of applications within industry. It goes from paint to adhesives. It's a hugely important part of the chemical industry. And they have a 25% market share. It's very, very, I wouldn't say dominant, but very strong position within the market. They also make many other chemicals as well. Now, this has been an important year for them.”
2023-01-27 · We Study Billionaires · TIP518: The "Buy" List for 2023 w/ Eddy Elfenbein · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“They call us, thank you. They call us midcap growth. And I remember when I first went, really, we are, it means nothing to me. It's just the 25 stocks, they put it in their computer and they said, this is mid-cap growth. But in no way, doesn't mean anything to me. But I like to get a couple, like I said, off-road companies. I don't know if I'd call Miller small cap or microcap, something that nobody knows about. I think you always want to, you know, it's a simple game. You turn over rocks and look for diamonds. And whoever turns over the most rocks wins the game. And that's really what it's about. So I'm willing to look in an unusual non-traditional place if I think there's a good bargain to be had. Not only that, but I'll ride it with a 20% loss in one year.”
2023-01-27 · We Study Billionaires · TIP518: The "Buy" List for 2023 w/ Eddy Elfenbein · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Fis It's always cold to get something that nobody else knows about, to get that. So I will go, I'll get an unusual stock that if I think, especially I like companies that nobody else follows. And that's a great way to find values. I saw that Morningstar, which, by the way, just had our, we just got our fifth star from Morningstar.”
2023-01-27 · We Study Billionaires · TIP518: The "Buy" List for 2023 w/ Eddy Elfenbein · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“320 million. It just seems such an obvious hold this and wait for the market to come to its senses. I think it's a really neat company.”
2023-01-27 · We Study Billionaires · TIP518: The "Buy" List for 2023 w/ Eddy Elfenbein · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I still see it in play, my thesis is that it's a company that was wrecked and is doing well. And a lot of people just don't see it yet. I wouldn't be surprised if Miller is our top performer for this year. But getting back to your larger point, and that is a good example of a 20% loser last year, not bothered at all by it. In fact, it's probably maybe in the last two or three months it's up 30 odd percent. It's actually been moving up steadily. But as long as I see that continuous increase, I'm trying to think this year or so we'll get the Q4 report. They'll do earnings sales of around 900 million. In 2019, their earnings before interest, before taxes was about 50 million. And so now the market cap is about 600.”
2023-01-27 · We Study Billionaires · TIP518: The "Buy" List for 2023 w/ Eddy Elfenbein · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“When you say what are earnings expectations, we just don't know. What happened with Miller is that the business was very much hurt by the lockdown and the period following the lockdowns. But if you look at the 2019 numbers, I think that earnings were 343 per share. Recently, really a few weeks ago, the stock was going for $21 per share. So the PE ratio of a couple years off is what, six times earnings, seven times earnings. But it's just getting up to the full potential of where it had been. The revenue has already got there. The last earnings report was quite good. I think revenue was up maybe 25% and net income was up 35%. So they're recovering very, very strongly.”
2023-01-27 · We Study Billionaires · TIP518: The "Buy" List for 2023 w/ Eddy Elfenbein · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“For this stock Well, let me say that if you have a well diversified portfolio, it's always a good idea to have one off-road stock, one that's kind of different from everybody else. And that's Miller. Miller is by far the smallest company. So step in is maybe two and a half billion. That's our second smallest. Miller is probably $320 million. I mean, it's one eighth the size of our 29th largest company. That's how small it is. And then you compare it to like Thermo Fisher or Danaher company like that. It's barely, it's a tiny, tiny drop. It's a cool company. And I really like it. And my thesis is a longer-term turnaround. So they make towing and recovery equipment. No analysts follow it. No Wall Street. And I mean, there are people who follow it, but no major Wall Street firms.”
2023-01-27 · We Study Billionaires · TIP518: The "Buy" List for 2023 w/ Eddy Elfenbein · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Would say with Polaris is a turnaround element, with Stepan not just that I see it as a continuum, I mean it has 55 years consecutive of increasing earnings. It's a small company. Maybe $2.5 billion in market cap. A lot of people don't even know about this company. It's a wonderful, wonderfully run company. And I think that I see as more as the long-term grower. And even though I had a difficult year, but I'm optimistic for it.”
2023-01-27 · We Study Billionaires · TIP518: The "Buy" List for 2023 w/ Eddy Elfenbein · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Are going to cut back on those sorts of good example of a consumer cyclical stock. And that can be difficult to look at under conventional metrics. And so you always want to adjust for where you are in the economic cycle. So that's just for people doing securities analysis, that can be very tricky because you can get false negatives by just following regular PE or EBDOT or enterprise value or something like that. So I always want to take a more expansive view on that. Polaris,”
2023-01-27 · We Study Billionaires · TIP518: The "Buy" List for 2023 w/ Eddy Elfenbein · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“The number for 2020 was very high. And in fact, I believe it had really been creeping up in the late teens. So the 2020 number was significantly compared to all their previous trends. And you're right, it completely tanked in 2021. And I believe a decent rebound last year as well. Now also, if you look at the operating income, the adjusted operating income, that's pretty stable. And it has been, and I think we'll continue to be. So it's sort of just want to add those other variables to what I look at. The thing about Polaris is by conventional metrics, it's a cheap stock. And there's a strong cyclical factor to the industry. I mean, snowmobiles and playthings. And obviously that's going to go better when the economy, you know,”
2023-01-27 · We Study Billionaires · TIP518: The "Buy" List for 2023 w/ Eddy Elfenbein · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, I would say so. They said that EPS for this year would be $1.56 to a buck 70, something around that. And then that was lowered once, and then it was lowered again to around $1.30 per share. So the Q4 numbers will be out later this month or maybe early February. So it was that not one, but two downgrades that really had me concerned about what was going on. And I didn't feel that it was turning around the way my thesis was. And that's really a key to selling a stock when it's no longer the company that your original thesis was. And I had to come to the realization that my reasons for buying the stock were not panning out, even though the loss wasn't that bad.”
2023-01-27 · We Study Billionaires · TIP518: The "Buy" List for 2023 w/ Eddy Elfenbein · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I have every reason to believe that treks will get better. There's nothing implicit within the business that is a problem for trek. So that's the key. And whereas we were talking about was it Reynolds, the ones that I thought there was greater problems in the performance of the execution of their business that had me more concerned.”
2023-01-27 · We Study Billionaires · TIP518: The "Buy" List for 2023 w/ Eddy Elfenbein · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“All performance related or right. So one of the things when you look at the company, you want to say, are the problems internal or the problems external? If the problems are external, like a good example is Afflac. They always have to deal with the Yen dollar exchange rate. But the thing about that factor is it comes and goes. So if it works against you one quarter, it may work against you in the future. But if there's a problem with the business, something endemic to them, that's a much bigger issue. So with Trex, they make the fake wooden decks, they were blindsided by the housing industry or knocked down due to the weakness in the housing sector. It's not really due to their failings as a business once the housing sector revives and gets better.”
2023-01-27 · We Study Billionaires · TIP518: The "Buy" List for 2023 w/ Eddy Elfenbein · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, I think it was a good example of revenue growth does not always equal volume growth. So I think they did a good job of balancing the higher prices and getting to their customers as well. So that was a key issue last year for them. And I was impressed by the way the company performed.”
2023-01-27 · We Study Billionaires · TIP518: The "Buy" List for 2023 w/ Eddy Elfenbein · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Purposely, we're going to avoid them, that would be very evident in your business decisions. They're just a part of the industry that you need to deal with. They service the sector and they do a really good job of what they do. So it's a cool little company.”
2023-01-27 · We Study Billionaires · TIP518: The "Buy" List for 2023 w/ Eddy Elfenbein · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“This, I have to say, is one of my favorite stocks, and I have a soft spot for it. And it's a very boring company, but I think of it this way, whatever their market cap is, I don't know, $5 billion or so. If someone said, here's a check for $4 billion and recreate, go off and do what Silgan does. I don't think you'd be able to do it. You'd need a lot more money to be able to do this. They have production facilities all over the place, so it's very close by to whatever you want to do. It's not just metal. They do all sorts of containers. Remember, any business needs a container needs something to ship it in. And they're the kind of company that if you're going to be in business that involves containers, it's hard to avoid silver. I mean, if you wanted to, if you said,”
2023-01-27 · We Study Billionaires · TIP518: The "Buy" List for 2023 w/ Eddy Elfenbein · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I like their business model. They make chocolate and then they sell it for more than they make it. And then they repeat that. And there's nothing high-tech about it whatsoever, but it's very profitable business.”
2023-01-27 · We Study Billionaires · TIP518: The "Buy" List for 2023 w/ Eddy Elfenbein · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“That the company said this was not hidden anywhere. The company said, we are having productivity problems. We cannot keep up with demand. And there are multiple articles about this. It's sort of like they were advertising anyone who just bothered to pay attention would see that the company was doing very well and their problem that they were dealing with was managing growth and they have since increased capacity to keep up with business. It's so odd that this is a name everybody knows. As I said, there's no city in America called low fat Pennsylvania, but for her Schaefer chocolate, they're absolutely is. And they were basically telling us right to our faces. It was a bargain hidden in plain sight. So I just wanted to add that bit about Hershey.”
2023-01-27 · We Study Billionaires · TIP518: The "Buy" List for 2023 w/ Eddy Elfenbein · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Can I say something about Hershey? And this is a good lesson for investors, people listening out there, is that so often the best year to own a stock, you really don't see your gains until the third year. And with Urshi was really our fourth year. So we had had it on the buy list for three years and if it had done well, nothing great, but then it outperforms by, what, 50% this year. It really turned into a rock star this year, and it's on the bylist for the fifth year. So that is people want to see immediate gains. When you do a lot of focused stock picking, it takes a while before you really see that huge payoff. And, you know, a lot of times they say the best stock to own is one you already know. Another thing with her, she is.”
2023-01-27 · We Study Billionaires · TIP518: The "Buy" List for 2023 w/ Eddy Elfenbein · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“They have close to a monopoly in Japan. So that's always going to be a large part of their business. But they do a significant business and a growing business in the United States. I don't know how well that's going to be balanced in the long term. But when you look at the business and they're known for the famous ads with the Afflac Duck, America is pretty small in their universe. I think Japan will continue to be a major source and the dominant source of their business.”
2023-01-27 · We Study Billionaires · TIP518: The "Buy" List for 2023 w/ Eddy Elfenbein · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Wow. And so was that 40 points better than the SB 500. And it's supplemental insurance. It's nothing really. But also I think that going back to the previous point, it shows you the effect of, you know, it did a lot better. It had a better year than Mark Zuckerberg.”
2023-01-27 · We Study Billionaires · TIP518: The "Buy" List for 2023 w/ Eddy Elfenbein · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Oh boy, maybe Aflac. It's just, you know, it's such a steady, steady business. They do what they do so well. And I had, do you have the numbers in front of you? I don't know”
2023-01-27 · We Study Billionaires · TIP518: The "Buy" List for 2023 w/ Eddy Elfenbein · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So, the story of 2022 was we completely unspoiled that and all the high risk areas I thought Facebook meta platforms, it fell by what, 60, 70%. Tesla was down. The stars of the lockdowns really fell significantly. And then a lot of the value, I wouldn't call the ETF a value one, but it was value high quality and those did well. So it was the resurgence. And that was, when interest rates are at zero, who cares about a PE ratio? I mean, it doesn't matter. But suddenly when rates are at up or three or four.”
2023-01-27 · We Study Billionaires · TIP518: The "Buy" List for 2023 w/ Eddy Elfenbein · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Balance between return and risk and what the Federal Reserve did was it said we're going to take risk off the table. We're going to basically, if you prefer, we're going to nationalize risk. That completely warped the market. It's like putting a magnet near a compass because all of these areas that are much riskier, they had a free ride. They had a backstop. So all of these sectors, places like Peloton and Zoom, and they just took off to the moon. We saw these enormous rallies in this. And also in the crypto world, also in the NFT world, just all those high-risk areas. Meanwhile, the boring areas, the value areas, the low volatility areas were really left behind.”
2023-01-27 · We Study Billionaires · TIP518: The "Buy" List for 2023 w/ Eddy Elfenbein · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“The short answer is no, but the longer answer is that even by not doing that, it helped us very much. And I think that was the key driver to our outperformance last year. But I can't take any credit for that whatsoever. But this is how I would describe it. And filler for a lot of listeners. But when COVID came, the market got very scared and the government, particularly the federal government and the Federal Reserve, responded massively. In many ways, I think they were trying to not do what had happened during the financial crisis where the response was somewhat slow only as they saw more and more evidence did the response get more dramatic. This time they responded dramatically and very early. So you have to understand that the stock market is a deal.”
2023-01-27 · We Study Billionaires · TIP518: The "Buy" List for 2023 w/ Eddy Elfenbein · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Is continuing to look good this year, and the price went down. And so I figured, hey, this is a good time to get back in. Maybe we could have the same magic with it. But I really like this company.”
2023-01-27 · We Study Billionaires · TIP518: The "Buy" List for 2023 w/ Eddy Elfenbein · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I said, okay, this is too much. Let's take some profits off the table on this. Then, so this year, it fell again. It fell back to from 200 to about 120. And I was looking at the earnings reports. And the last one, the bottom line missed, but the numbers were quite good. I think the EBITDA growth was 23.5. It's odd what numbers you can remember. I think that's what they did. So they were still showing impressive numbers and I'm trying to think it was around $10 per share is what we're looking for earnings, give or take. And it's around $140. That's not bad for this environment. And also, I just like the long-term growth of their operating income. It's a nice grower. It's a good business to be in. So I saw that the number”
2023-01-27 · We Study Billionaires · TIP518: The "Buy" List for 2023 w/ Eddy Elfenbein · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Well, I mean, I have to talk about this was one of the most incredible rollercoaster rides we had because they make sort of industrial kitchen supplies, big ovens and conveyor belt kind of things. When the lockdowns came in March of 2020, the stock got absolutely clubbed. You see hotels, businesses. This is what is going to impact them. The stock fell, I'm trying to think it was around 120 and it fell to 40 within days. I mean, it was so fast and so hard. And then the company put on one of the most spectacular rallies and it got to 200 by the end of the year, right around there. I may be off some, but it vaulted from its march low.”
2023-01-27 · We Study Billionaires · TIP518: The "Buy" List for 2023 w/ Eddy Elfenbein · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I mean, it's both, but I would say that in the sense it was management was blindsided by the macro environment, particularly sales, the cost, passing on the cost of goods in a sector that's very competitive as far as cost. And they had a difficulty doing that, trying to look through. They said their organic sales would be negative. I'm trying to recall what they said earnings growth would be something like four to eight percent. That got cut. And then they said basically it would be flat. That happened all throughout the year. And so that sort of led me to, instinctively, I tend to like it if it gets into a little trouble. But ultimately, I thought, and also it wasn't really wild about the recent growth numbers. A similar story with Reynolds Consumer Product.”
2023-01-27 · We Study Billionaires · TIP518: The "Buy" List for 2023 w/ Eddy Elfenbein · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Or I realize. And so I had to let that go. And oh, not church and dwyt. I like that stock so much. But also we have more than once we've had companies that we've cut and rejoined us. And that even happened this year with a cool company, Middleby, which did very well for us. We didn't have it in 2022. I'm not a good market timer, but boy, we got that right because the stock got flattened last year. And then I looked at the right back. And so, you know, that can happen. A lot of times maybe that will happen with Church and Dwight down the line. So it's always nice. Another one that did very well for us.”
2023-01-27 · We Study Billionaires · TIP518: The "Buy" List for 2023 w/ Eddy Elfenbein · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Actually, believe it or not, I was tempted to do less than five. Sometimes it gets harder. And we've always said five stocks each year and my business partner says there's no reason you can do four or three and that's true. But we've never done that. And sometimes I do have difficulty selecting which one I want to get rid of. And you become just naturally you sort of become attached to them. And you have to fight that urge. You need to be as rational and businesslike as possible. But for example, one of the stocks, Church and Dwight, I like a lot about it. There's a lot of things I like about this company. And ultimately, I made the decision to drop it this year. They just had a number of issues crop up during the year as far as managing expenses and dealing with supply problems and inflation. I think hurt them more than they really.”
2023-01-27 · We Study Billionaires · TIP518: The "Buy" List for 2023 w/ Eddy Elfenbein · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Better in those strong years and string together many years with that. It results in long-term outperformance. So it is odd saying, you know, the ETF was flat or we didn't get those returns. That's actually good news considering the environment. And also when we, at the end of each year, we rebalance all of the positions. So many aspects were getting good prices once we do that rebalancing.”
2023-01-27 · We Study Billionaires · TIP518: The "Buy" List for 2023 w/ Eddy Elfenbein · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT