YouSaid · the spoken record

Edward Chancellor

lines on the record: 79
first: 2022-11-04
most recent: 2022-11-04
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

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“Speculate on danger. The Goths of the Hill. Particularly when you get into what financial markets the capitalist world Always trying to anticipate what's going on. So in that sense, even people who describe themselves as investors. Are also necessarily speculators. But when we talk about Speculation, we often talk about sort of unfounded or irrational or dangerous gambling type tendencies.”
2022-11-04 · Masters in Business · Edward Chancellor on the Real Story of Interest · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, I mean, the act of speculation is to look out into the future. The word speculator is Latin and was a Roman military guard whose job was to look out and see whether the”
2022-11-04 · Masters in Business · Edward Chancellor on the Real Story of Interest · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I mean, only by, I think it was Jim Walker who did the thing, but at least I got Jeremy. You got him in front of him. Yeah. And that sort of, I suppose I used to say that.”
2022-11-04 · Masters in Business · Edward Chancellor on the Real Story of Interest · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“CLSA Asian economist called Jim Walker. I don't know if you've ever came across him. A sort of Gotsman with the sort of voice like a Presbyterian minister, he was also on the sort of anti-decoupling story and he was bearish on EM. I dragged Jeremy to Jim Walker and he said that this Scotsman with his gloomy voice was more effective at persuading him than I with my languid English drool. And then Jeremy went out and sold all the emerging positions.”
2022-11-04 · Masters in Business · Edward Chancellor on the Real Story of Interest · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“They had the equity allocation. I mean, I don't want to blame my own trumpet too much because most of the positions were in place. Quality funds which more defensive and less leveraged and low allocation to a relatively low allocation to equities. And then the hedge funds, sort of long short positions that benefited in the financial crisis. My only real contribution that year was right at the beginning when I the first week I joined GMO I'd written a piece in an FT column I had at the time saying don't believe this story that emerging markets can decouple from the rest of the world and GMA was still sitting on a massive emerging market position in the asset allocation team and I tried to sort of chip away at that with Jeremy and not having much success and then a this”
2022-11-04 · Masters in Business · Edward Chancellor on the Real Story of Interest · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Why, I said known initially And then went back to England, then he called again. And because these investors sometimes say lights froff offers around their nervous. And then he called a couple months later, and then I decided, yeah, I would take it. And Jeremy wanted a, obviously I'd done a lot of work on the credit boom. But he also wanted sort of I'm not a quant and GMO is, so to speak, a quant shop.”
2022-11-04 · Masters in Business · Edward Chancellor on the Real Story of Interest · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, he sort of thought about it and then I went home. I went, we have a house in Cape Cod and I went home. Jeremy called and said, would you like to join the allocation team?”
2022-11-04 · Masters in Business · Edward Chancellor on the Real Story of Interest · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Hedge funds started blowing up, and Jeremy said, Well, at least there's enough structural redundancy in the banking system. And I said, what the hell makes you think that?”
2022-11-04 · Masters in Business · Edward Chancellor on the Real Story of Interest · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And I said, yeah, I agree. And he said, Well, why didn't I just pay you to write a report and to analyze what's going on? So I spent next sort of nine months looking what was going on in the US and the UK and the credit boom and real estate boom and development of securitized lending and subprime and so forth. And then I put that out. I did that for Crispin, but I also sold it as a report, but not for wide distribution, sort of $1,000 a shot. And that went to sort of a few people. I gave a copy to Jeremy as a present. And then I was having lunch, Jeremy in Boston. I was working for Breaking Views in New York and we were returning to England after a couple of years. I was having lunch with Jeremy in summer of 2007, just after the Bearstones.”
2022-11-04 · Masters in Business · Edward Chancellor on the Real Story of Interest · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And then they looked that the dot com bubble looks a lot like these historical bubbles. So all of them independently, Jeremy, Rob, Cliff read the book and got in touch with me. And Jeremy became, I became more of a friend, but I didn't go straight to GMO. I was doing journalism for breaking views, which was the sort of dot-com startup FX FT people. Known by Reuters and started doing some, then I did some research for Chris Binodi, who's a London hedge fund. And so Crispin and I were having lunch in late two thousand three. Crispin said we were talking about what was going on in the markets and the world. And Crispin's. Said it's really all about credit”
2022-11-04 · Masters in Business · Edward Chancellor on the Real Story of Interest · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“They were in trouble. They were not buying into the TMT bubble, they were buying their beloved value stocks. And everyone just saying they were idiotic quants and that that approach was no longer to work. So then they found that they saw this book came out saying, look, you'll be right.”
2022-11-04 · Masters in Business · Edward Chancellor on the Real Story of Interest · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“But then if you look at the valuation, the market at the time, Market was the US market at the end of last year, as you're probably aware, on what we call the Shillip PE ratio, the cyclically adjusted price earnings ratio, which is the sort of most reliable long-term valuation measure. It was at its highest level at the end of last year than at any point, apart from the last stages of the dot-com bubble, so higher than in 1929. And Hayden in the 1950s, the market was very expensive. And what we also know, those of us who worked in investment, is that your future returns are inversely related to the valuation level. So perhaps every time we get to DAIO 36,000, you can expect a long period of decline. In the end, inflation and accrued earnings will mean that we'll get to 36,000 one day on a sustained basis.”
2022-11-04 · Masters in Business · Edward Chancellor on the Real Story of Interest · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“But the other point is that when people saying, oh, well, I think Wall Street Journal had an editorial of DAIA 30,000, 36,000.”
2022-11-04 · Masters in Business · Edward Chancellor on the Real Story of Interest · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“For the talk, it was completely, I felt completely blank. But actually, I'm later met one of the DAIA 36,000 people. Kevin has kids. I met him later. He's actually a very nice fellow, and he did, when I met him, let's say in 2010, he acknowledged that. Got things wrong”
2022-11-04 · Masters in Business · Edward Chancellor on the Real Story of Interest · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Bearish message at a bullish investment conference and no one listens to you. Not a single one of the partners or anyone like that thanked me or”
2022-11-04 · Masters in Business · Edward Chancellor on the Real Story of Interest · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“The first thing I spoke at was a Goldman Sachs asset management conference. Strange enough, in a place called Carefree, Arizona. And the DAIO 36,000 people were there. I was saying, you know, this is a great bubble, which is about to burst. This would have been in late 1999. And I said, we're hearing carefree Arizona, but around the corner is a place called truth or consequences. And perhaps we should really be meeting there. You can imagine you give...”
2022-11-04 · Masters in Business · Edward Chancellor on the Real Story of Interest · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, as you know, bearish messages often type it early. Was it better to have left the publication date later? I don't know. I mean, do you remember a bit later Robert Siller's irrational exuberance came out?”
2022-11-04 · Masters in Business · Edward Chancellor on the Real Story of Interest · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So it came out with Farah Strauss and Shirou here. And I said to Jonathan Klass, the editor. You've got to get this out quickly. And FSG to their credit reduce the publication time from their normal one year to six months.”
2022-11-04 · Masters in Business · Edward Chancellor on the Real Story of Interest · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“You could see these parallels. So I was writing about the British Railway Mania of the 1840s. Now, railways were this revolutionary technology that was going to change the world, going to change civilization, the speed with which people. And roughly at the same time, remember Mary Meeker at Morgan Stanley came out with the internet report that was being sold in Barnes& Noble in 1996. And I wrote the book, but also some journalism in 1996 in the FT saying, hey, this internet stuff looks a lot like the railway mania of the 1840s and 96 hadn't really started getting going. As a reminder,”
2022-11-04 · Masters in Business · Edward Chancellor on the Real Story of Interest · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So, in some ways, I was sort of writing, and then obviously Mackay writing, he only covered Tudipmania, South Sea Bubble, and Mississippi bubble. So I thought one could write a sort of arc of financial speculation up to the current day. and then in the course of writing it the dot-com bubble started to form so that made it more pressing and in a way more interesting because you could you know when i write you'd see it in real time exactly but also”
2022-11-04 · Masters in Business · Edward Chancellor on the Real Story of Interest · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“A sailor coming along and mistaking a tulip bald for an onion and eating in it and it turning out to be a rare tulip bar worth the value of hundreds of thousands of dollars. Amsterdam townhouse. And Mackay is also from a sort of investment perspective. You don't really get a proper picture of what's going on”
2022-11-04 · Masters in Business · Edward Chancellor on the Real Story of Interest · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I think Kendallberg is very good, but if you remember, he's writing a sort of taxonomy of the bubble. And as an historian, I wanted to write the narrative of the bubble. Now, you're probably aware, you know, Charles Mackay's extraordinary popular. I mean, that's your 1840s narrative, and it's highly inaccurate. Really? Yeah, it's full of sort of legend talks about the black tulip and stories of people biting, you know, with the tulip bell, he talks about...”
2022-11-04 · Masters in Business · Edward Chancellor on the Real Story of Interest · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It wasn't a straight path. While I was at Lazarus, I heard, you can't work in finance without people talking about the great speculat Bubbles of the past, so people would mention the sort of British railway mania of the 1840s and tulip mania and so forth. And I left, with no more money than I had when I came in, and I decided I would write a history of financial speculation of my own bat. I'd read the other stuff, you know, Kindleberger, Guy Braith and that sort of stuff. And I still felt there was room to write a new book.”
2022-11-04 · Masters in Business · Edward Chancellor on the Real Story of Interest · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, and I was sort of grunt level. Sure And I came to the point where I thought, well, I'd sooner be driving a bus than continuing this career.”
2022-11-04 · Masters in Business · Edward Chancellor on the Real Story of Interest · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I was actually in a sort of subgroup there which was called corporate strategy. We were sort of doing, our job, our job was basically to give sort of Strategic advice to Lazard Klaus, which would generate capital raising mergers and debt financing for these companies. It was sort of self-interested advice. But I didn't last very long there because I didn't like corporate finance. I felt they were sort of ruthless, cynical, always looking for a deal. And I remember once one of my colleagues said that one of the French Lazard Fre partners was asked by a sort of junior, how much should we tell our client to bid? And the French partner said the price is right which hurts our client. This is sort of cynicism in corporate finance. I didn't find it intellectually interesting. You had all those deal books, you can imagine.”
2022-11-04 · Masters in Business · Edward Chancellor on the Real Story of Interest · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, yeah, no, they're all, they call it Lazar Brothers in London, Lazard Frere in Paris and Lazar Fre here. So they've now all been drawn together. But when I was there, there was sort of interconnected shareholdings that were joining the different branches together. I went into what's called corporate finance. People would see now as sort of M&A department.”
2022-11-04 · Masters in Business · Edward Chancellor on the Real Story of Interest · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“If I needed a living, I might as well make money from money, which is what Aristotle disapproved of. It was a sort of anti-Aristotelian act of going into the city.”
2022-11-04 · Masters in Business · Edward Chancellor on the Real Story of Interest · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I thought about it, and then I was invited with the other graduate students to history professor's house on the outskirts of Cambridge. And I thought, well, this is where the guy who's got to the top at Oxford Liz, I'm going to go and get a job in the City of London. So that's what I did. And I sort of didn't, my thinking on leaving academia is that...”
2022-11-04 · Masters in Business · Edward Chancellor on the Real Story of Interest · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“American, what we call it M, Phil is a shorter version of a doctorate or defil. I wrote a research paper and one had exams at the same time. And it was originally created as a sort of academic teaching degree but then got somewhat usurped by the PhD.”
2022-11-04 · Masters in Business · Edward Chancellor on the Real Story of Interest · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source