YouSaid · the spoken record

Eric Kaufmann

lines on the record: 82
first: 2019-07-03
most recent: 2019-07-03
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

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“An opinion on this But you. Yeah, I mean, that would certainly make sense to me. I mean, when you're oriented around family and extended family in that way, and that's sort of the worldview that you acquire, then yes, that is obviously the opposite of a kind of liberal individualistic worldview. So it makes sense to me, but again, I would have no data on that.”
2019-07-03 · Conversations with Tyler · Eric Kaufmann on Immigration, Identity, and the Limits of Individualism · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“A kind of rude standard. Yeah, so the first thing they're probably selected, so Pakistan has a kind of relatively educated urban elite in the cities, and then it has sort of, let's say, not tribal, but sort of areas of the country, particularly in the border with Afghanistan, but Balochistan and other areas where people are more traditional, agricultural. This is the issue with cousin marriage that we have here in Britain amongst a subset of the Pakistani population. My impression is that so Silhet would be a region where people were, or was it Mirpur? I keep getting it mixed up. People were recruited into the textile factories, and you have these familial cousin marriage links. My impression is the American Pakistanis wouldn't... have been drawn from that same subpopulation. So that might explain the difference.”
2019-07-03 · Conversations with Tyler · Eric Kaufmann on Immigration, Identity, and the Limits of Individualism · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, yeah, and I would have to sort of know the intermarriage race there. I mean, there are different meanings of assimilation. One is acquiring the language and doing well in the economy. The other would be sort of intermarrying in and essentially becoming part of the ethnic majority.”
2019-07-03 · Conversations with Tyler · Eric Kaufmann on Immigration, Identity, and the Limits of Individualism · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Can the Syrians are not? I mean they're not a sort of strongly Salafist group that's, you know, so I would think groups from South Asia, Pakistanis in particular tend to be more very unlikely to intermarry. In this country, for example, there's a very low. Whereas I would have thought the Syrians would have a higher intermarriage rate and a higher secularization rate long term. So I do think they will, I believe, assimilate. Maybe it takes a couple of two, three generations, but that would be, again, a prediction I would make, yeah.”
2019-07-03 · Conversations with Tyler · Eric Kaufmann on Immigration, Identity, and the Limits of Individualism · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, I would have thought I guess I would think that long term they will intermarry. I mean, if you look at Turkey itself, it's actually a reasonably secular country. And, you know, the birth rates have come down quite a bit. Once the intermarriage starts. Intermarriage is going to be the root. It's not going to be Turks within the Turkish community moving away from Islam, but I think intermarriage is a route through which the offspring will then be relatively secular. And I do think even though those rights are not high now, I think they probably will increase. That would be my projection.”
2019-07-03 · Conversations with Tyler · Eric Kaufmann on Immigration, Identity, and the Limits of Individualism · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I think it is the Berber factor. I don't think there's anything magical that the French are doing that the Dutch are not in terms of integration policy. I think there's much, much too much is made of that.”
2019-07-03 · Conversations with Tyler · Eric Kaufmann on Immigration, Identity, and the Limits of Individualism · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Right, right. Or man, and this is, I think part of this stems from Algeria in its history, you know, so you have a large Berber population in Algeria, many of whom are anti the regime. They're anti the kind of Arab-Islamist regime. And so they're actually quite secular in many ways. So that's part of it. But even amongst the Moroccans in France, there's quite a high outmarriage rate, like 40% even. So, yeah, the French Muslims do seem to be melting in better than Muslims, even of the same ethnicity. So compared to Moroccans in the Netherlands, for example, there's a much higher outmarriage in France.”
2019-07-03 · Conversations with Tyler · Eric Kaufmann on Immigration, Identity, and the Limits of Individualism · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, the Algerian, the outmarriage rate is almost 50% for French Algerian men. But even across the Franco-Algerian community, I think it's in the 40 to 50 percent outmarriage.”
2019-07-03 · Conversations with Tyler · Eric Kaufmann on Immigration, Identity, and the Limits of Individualism · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“had quite a high chance of moving from saying I'm a Muslim to saying I have no religion and there are certain groups like the Bosnians who have a quite high I would say a kind of fall off from religion so I think there's sort of secularization potential through intermarriage and also the immigration flow is just not Muslim enough to produce this majority so I don't think it'll ever be more than about 20-25%”
2019-07-03 · Conversations with Tyler · Eric Kaufmann on Immigration, Identity, and the Limits of Individualism · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I don't think we're going to head to much more than about twenty, twenty five at the most percent, and there's a number of reasons I say that. Number one, even if the European population consisted only of immigrants, if the immigration flow is only minority Muslim, and I think the average is only about 20, 25%, then that's going to be your population. The other thing is the birth rates for Muslims are really not that different. including if we go into the Muslim world, particularly the Arab world, the birth rates have really come down dramatically in the last two decades. Added to that is that intermarriage is a route through which Muslims or their children lose religion. So in this, I've looked at individual level census data in this country where we can see that the offspring of people who are part, say, Pakistani or Arab and part white British, that that kind of person between 2001 and 2009.”
2019-07-03 · Conversations with Tyler · Eric Kaufmann on Immigration, Identity, and the Limits of Individualism · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I guess I'm one of these people who thinks the theology can be kind of tweaked to give you any interpretation so that the Christians and Jews could come up with something similar in a pinch. So I guess that would be a good idea.”
2019-07-03 · Conversations with Tyler · Eric Kaufmann on Immigration, Identity, and the Limits of Individualism · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I agree. So, if the religious leaders say so, then I think they can bring the birth rates down very quickly, as we saw in Iran in the space of what was it, 20 years from 6 to 1.8, you know, per woman. Yeah, that is a scenario. So you could have leaders who would say, we just can't sustain this runaway population growth. We have to bring the birth rate down. And by the way, God says it's the right thing to do. And so that is certainly a scenario that I can imagine occurring. But by then, they've taken power. And I think for the seculars, you'd have to ask the question, do you want that?”
2019-07-03 · Conversations with Tyler · Eric Kaufmann on Immigration, Identity, and the Limits of Individualism · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, if you go back to Komei, I mean, they actually issued fatwas that endorsed the family policies of the Mullahs themselves, the religious authorities themselves actually endorsed family planning and contraception. So this is not a secular thing necessarily in Iran. But getting back to the”
2019-07-03 · Conversations with Tyler · Eric Kaufmann on Immigration, Identity, and the Limits of Individualism · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I'm the gradient between very conservative and sort of secular and liberal is not as strong in Islam as it is in Judaism or Christianity, but it's about a two to one twice higher fertility for women who are most in favor of Sharia compared to those who are most opposed to Sharia. So in the cities. So I do think there is also this dynamic within Islam, yes.”
2019-07-03 · Conversations with Tyler · Eric Kaufmann on Immigration, Identity, and the Limits of Individualism · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Possibly, you know, I mean, we're already seeing that the wealthiest and the best educated women actually are now having more kids than those with just a BA or of moderate wealth. So some of what you're saying has already kicked in in the last, say, 10, 20 years, but it's still below replacement, even amongst that wealthy, high-educated group. But it's certainly possible. I mean, if, as you say, we get some cheap childcare, but I still fundamentally think there's something there in the theology about go forth and multiply and women having a traditional role that tends to be associated with higher fertility. The other part of this is participation in a congregation kind of gives a support network around childminding childcare and creates more pronatalist atmosphere. To some extent in Israel even because of the sort of high birth rate amongst the religious, it seems to have sort of bled into the secular population as well.”
2019-07-03 · Conversations with Tyler · Eric Kaufmann on Immigration, Identity, and the Limits of Individualism · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I think it's pretty baked in. I mean, if you look worldwide next to women's education, religiosity is the next predictor of strongest predictor of total fertility rate. There's almost no country in the world where committed religious women have a below replacement fertility. The difference in Western, it developed countries, the religiosity actually matters more than women's education. So I don't see that factor going away. I think it's going to be a key factor driving fertility differences going forward”
2019-07-03 · Conversations with Tyler · Eric Kaufmann on Immigration, Identity, and the Limits of Individualism · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, I mean, I think it depends whether you're talking about the core in Utah and perhaps spilling into Idaho versus Mormons who live outside the core. I think Mormons outside the core have a higher intermarriage rate and perhaps are more likely to assimilate into the mainstream. But if you take that kind of core settlement area, I think the intermarriage would be pretty low”
2019-07-03 · Conversations with Tyler · Eric Kaufmann on Immigration, Identity, and the Limits of Individualism · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“More Mormons than Amish. That's right, 6 million versus 300,000 in America. Their fertility rate is almost twice that of the rest of the population. And if the American fertility rate continues to go down, it could be that the Mormon one actually goes up to about twice as much. Yeah, I mean, when you're maintaining twice the fertility rate as the rest of the population and you've got fairly high retention, you multiply that over generations and it rises exponentially. So we should expect the Mormons to be more influential in future generations in the United States.”
2019-07-03 · Conversations with Tyler · Eric Kaufmann on Immigration, Identity, and the Limits of Individualism · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, I think these world-denying fundamentalist sects really are not that motivated by economic incentives. I mean, one of the reasons their populations have exploded is partly because they reject modern, not modern contraceptions so much, well, contraception, but also limiting family size. They're sort of really setting their face against the modern trend towards secularism, liberalism, low fertility. And so they're kind of inoculated from a lot of these pressures, particularly the material pressures, which really drove fertility in the past, now that we have contraception, you don't need to have a lot of kids to work the land anymore. The material incentives are no longer the driver fertility. It's cultural and religious. So I think we shouldn't expect their fertility to come down even if they run out of land.”
2019-07-03 · Conversations with Tyler · Eric Kaufmann on Immigration, Identity, and the Limits of Individualism · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, this is an interesting question because I don't see the limiting factor yet. You could imagine in an authoritarian country like China they would just impose a sort of two.”
2019-07-03 · Conversations with Tyler · Eric Kaufmann on Immigration, Identity, and the Limits of Individualism · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, what happened is the Protestants went through the demographic transition first. In Northern Ireland eighty years before the Catholics did, but then the Catholics entered into that, so they started reducing their fertility. By 1980 in the US, the two fertility rates were pretty much identical. Yeah, so this is just a convergence as groups that enter into the demographic mature phase of demographic transition. But some groups are lagging a little bit behind.”
2019-07-03 · Conversations with Tyler · Eric Kaufmann on Immigration, Identity, and the Limits of Individualism · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“wearing it could they might ask innocuous questions like which school did you go to and if it starts with a saint you know that's Catholic right so these are the signs that they pick up on”
2019-07-03 · Conversations with Tyler · Eric Kaufmann on Immigration, Identity, and the Limits of Individualism · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“What's the empirical correlation? That they will show well, I mean, they're very good at reading the signs. It could be what clothing color you.”
2019-07-03 · Conversations with Tyler · Eric Kaufmann on Immigration, Identity, and the Limits of Individualism · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It is a few percent, it is very, very small, extremely low, and it has not no statistics I've seen have shown that unfreezing, so it's extremely rare. Many come over to Britain who, you know, if they marry across the sectarian divide, they might just come over to Britain because life will be less complicated for them.”
2019-07-03 · Conversations with Tyler · Eric Kaufmann on Immigration, Identity, and the Limits of Individualism · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Where I don't think it is a form of white identity politics, actually, and that's why you're right, that in West Africa, and actually, by the way, there are native Indian lodges in Canada, for example, as well, which thrive. So it's mainly about being Protestant. So it's a Protestant identity. But of course, depends on the setting. In Northern Ireland, for a long time, the Protestants were the dominant ethnic group as well. And so it functioned as a sort of association and fraternity for that group. Similarly, in Canada or in Newfoundland, both of which were very strong Orange jurisdictions, the Orange Order also functioned as a kind of association for the dominant ethnic group. But it doesn't have to be that way.”
2019-07-03 · Conversations with Tyler · Eric Kaufmann on Immigration, Identity, and the Limits of Individualism · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“For many orangemen, it's the, you know, many of them won't really attend these large meetings, which are quite boring, and what they're really in it for is that once a year spectacle. And if you take that away, that's a big reason why they joined in the first place. So it's very emotional. Also, these roots are, in some cases, hundreds of years old. So there is that symbolic attachment. It is also about power, certainly in the older days. This was about showing who was in control, particularly in areas where the Protestants were parading through Catholic areas. But now most of those roots have been rerouted or closed. Yeah, it's very much a symbolic issue in the sense amongst the unionists is that their culture is being taken away from them in a way that, in a sense, only Protestant culture is being targeted in other forms of cultural expression such as the Irish language are supported. So I think that's part of the...”
2019-07-03 · Conversations with Tyler · Eric Kaufmann on Immigration, Identity, and the Limits of Individualism · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, you get to take part in an annual spectacle, which is the july twelfth parades, where you're parading in front of your community. I actually don't think there are a whole lot of material benefits. I just don't think that's the reason people are drawn into it. I think it's a family tradition, it's a communal thing, a historical symbolic thing. Now, that was different in the past when really that was the ticket to getting into the police force, the mayor's office, a whole series of jobs at the aircraft factory or the shipyards. That's no longer the case. So the incentives are different now.”
2019-07-03 · Conversations with Tyler · Eric Kaufmann on Immigration, Identity, and the Limits of Individualism · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Really? It does. You obviously haven't been to East Belfast and seen all of the Union Jacks, you know, or down the shankle. You should visit the Orange Orders headquarters, I think, in East Belfast. I think that would cure you of that.”
2019-07-03 · Conversations with Tyler · Eric Kaufmann on Immigration, Identity, and the Limits of Individualism · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I think the most plausible scenario is that, I mean, Northern Ireland Protestants don't have the same hostility to the Republic that they have traditionally had. So maybe a kind of charm offensive and perhaps, I mean, in a way, the unionist population is the one they have to win over. They are kind of four square against reunification. Somehow the Irish Republic has to find a way to reassure them. That's going to be the ticket to reunification, but it'll never really happen just through economic integration. I think there's got to be something symbolic that will win over the unionists.”
2019-07-03 · Conversations with Tyler · Eric Kaufmann on Immigration, Identity, and the Limits of Individualism · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Because I think for a long time essentially the security situation kept investors away. Republic of Ireland drew a lot of the investment in. It remained a kind of dependency situation in relation to the UK. So for those reasons, I think there just hasn't been the investment. But you're right. I think it has a lot of potential and the people are very smart, so I can't see a reason why not.”
2019-07-03 · Conversations with Tyler · Eric Kaufmann on Immigration, Identity, and the Limits of Individualism · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I don't necessarily think it is wrong other than the fact that right now the economy is about eighty five percent government, and so unless there is some sort of private investment, then it's going to be a government run essentially an economy funded from the mainland Britain. So I'm just not sure it has the dynamism yet, but tourism's increasing, and like you say, it's a very pleasant place with a lot of advantages.”
2019-07-03 · Conversations with Tyler · Eric Kaufmann on Immigration, Identity, and the Limits of Individualism · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, it depends. Maybe it's only about five or six days of sunshine a year. No, I'm just kidding. Yeah, I agree with you there's some lovely parts of Northern Ireland. And I mean, one of the other things is the sectarian real estate market, which is another wrinkle that we could talk about.”
2019-07-03 · Conversations with Tyler · Eric Kaufmann on Immigration, Identity, and the Limits of Individualism · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source