YouSaid · the spoken record

Fabrice Grinda

lines on the record: 98
first: 2024-06-20
most recent: 2024-06-20
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

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“Combination of the GPUs plus the AI is going to lead to a plethora of new applications that people haven't thought of and figure.ai is one such example.”
2024-06-20 · Forward Guidance · Venture Capitalist Who Called 2021 “Everything Bubble” Thinks VC Valuations Are “Reasonable” | Fabrice Grinda, Super Angel Investor, on Geopolitical Threats, AI, and Yield-Bearing Stablecoins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Demonstration on YouTube of the robot that basically identifies correctly through voice interface that this is an Apple, gives the Apple to the person asking for it, cleans the dishes, explains why it's doing what it's doing, understands the context. And what a figure is building is basically humanoid robots to replace humans and last mile picking and packing factories. So replacing humans and all like the Amazon type warehouses, which makes sense, right? At the end of the day, humans should be doing tasks that require empathy and human emotion. We're not meant to be like either doing things like screwing a bolt or carrying heavy boxes. It just is not what we were built for. And so I can see things like that, which don't exist today. Robotics today is a tiny category. Could I see it being a multi-trillion category in the next few decades? Absolutely. And I think the”
2024-06-20 · Forward Guidance · Venture Capitalist Who Called 2021 “Everything Bubble” Thinks VC Valuations Are “Reasonable” | Fabrice Grinda, Super Angel Investor, on Geopolitical Threats, AI, and Yield-Bearing Stablecoins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Well, so you have two beneficiaries, actually. You had Microsoft and the application makers on Microsoft, but you also had Intel. So it was called the Wintel duopoly for a long time. And so the losers were IBM and all the PC makers, right? Like Gateway, Dell, et cetera. I mean, what Dell does today has nothing to like the PC maker was back in the day. So I can see the beneficiaries here being the GPU makers. Nvidia, though, NVIDIA could also be displaced by someone else in the future, though they're in massive network effects and benefits of scale and the AI makers like OpenAI for sure. Well, actually, I can see other beneficiaries. I mean, we're investors in a robotics company called Figure. Figure.ai is genius. I encourage all of you to look at their”
2024-06-20 · Forward Guidance · Venture Capitalist Who Called 2021 “Everything Bubble” Thinks VC Valuations Are “Reasonable” | Fabrice Grinda, Super Angel Investor, on Geopolitical Threats, AI, and Yield-Bearing Stablecoins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Answered the same way that in the 80s and 90s, the beneficiaries of computers really was Microsoft designing the software instead of Dell making the hardware, even though Dell now is publicly traded and is on quite a ride because of perceived AI beneficiaries. But you think that the true beneficiaries will be designing the software instead of the car companies like Ford or GM?”
2024-06-20 · Forward Guidance · Venture Capitalist Who Called 2021 “Everything Bubble” Thinks VC Valuations Are “Reasonable” | Fabrice Grinda, Super Angel Investor, on Geopolitical Threats, AI, and Yield-Bearing Stablecoins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Things like line of sight on a pilot, which makes no sense, right? You want to be autonomous and infinite range, otherwise it doesn't work or requiring buying air rights over certain reasons. All these things are dumb and massively limiting development. We could totally have drone deliveries working effectively today if it wasn't for a regulatory space.”
2024-06-20 · Forward Guidance · Venture Capitalist Who Called 2021 “Everything Bubble” Thinks VC Valuations Are “Reasonable” | Fabrice Grinda, Super Angel Investor, on Geopolitical Threats, AI, and Yield-Bearing Stablecoins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“High end computers like the silicon graphics of the world versus the PCs, and the PCs just getting more powerful, better, faster, and remaining cheap. And ultimately, that world worked. But the thing is, talking about like the underlying companies that are selling these things is probably less compelling than like who are who is building interesting self-driving car applications that you can see in the market today. And the leader is currently a Chinese company called We Ride that is the leader in China and is currently training the UAE. Now, I think we are at the technological point where it could actually work in the US as well. And we have, but it's more regulatory regime changed these happen. Same thing with drones, by the way. Like drone delivery is completely viable. It's just the FAA required.”
2024-06-20 · Forward Guidance · Venture Capitalist Who Called 2021 “Everything Bubble” Thinks VC Valuations Are “Reasonable” | Fabrice Grinda, Super Angel Investor, on Geopolitical Threats, AI, and Yield-Bearing Stablecoins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“It's a question of what do you define as market leaders? You're saying the market leader is the company that's building the underlying tech that is then used in the cars to make self-driving, of which there are a number of players. In fact, there's two big fights going on from a technology perspective, like LIDAR-based systems versus webcam-based systems. And Tesla's big bet. And in fact, the only way I think you can justify the Tesla valuation is if you believe that they win self-driving, basically. So Tesla's a big bet is a combination of AI GPU plus webcam, which is way cheaper, wins against LIDAR-based systems. And the answer is it may very well. I mean, if you think of the 1980s, you had the...”
2024-06-20 · Forward Guidance · Venture Capitalist Who Called 2021 “Everything Bubble” Thinks VC Valuations Are “Reasonable” | Fabrice Grinda, Super Angel Investor, on Geopolitical Threats, AI, and Yield-Bearing Stablecoins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, technology often cancels a decrease in GDP. And so I think GDP is undermeasuring the quality of life improvement and the quality of the improvements in productivity. And so I think we're mismasuring productivity improvement in GDP calculations because we're not seeing the deflationary power. We're miscalculating the deflationary power of technology. But that said, before AI seeps into the real world, so in startups, is it having productivity improvements? Absolutely. But again, as we discussed at the very beginning, startups are like 2% of employment. And so it's not going to show up in overall productivity stats, I think, for a decade because you need like general electric and you need whatever Exxon to be using it effectively and to improve productivity. And I don't see it happening for like a decade. But ultimately, it will revolutionize our world in ways we can't even begin to imagine today.”
2024-06-20 · Forward Guidance · Venture Capitalist Who Called 2021 “Everything Bubble” Thinks VC Valuations Are “Reasonable” | Fabrice Grinda, Super Angel Investor, on Geopolitical Threats, AI, and Yield-Bearing Stablecoins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I don't think we see it in the productivity sets and the GDP sets for at least five years, most likely 10 years onwards. That said, so in five years, I think there's going to be the value of disillusionment or disappointment where everyone's going to be like, oh my God, everyone made such a big deal out of it and nothing happens. But actually little by little, they'll be seeping into the underlying infrastructure of the companies and everything will become cheaper, faster, and better. 10 years, 15 years in the future, you're going to see the outcomes of it. And by the way, it may not be measured in the GDP sets. I mean, GDP, think of a product that think of computers. Computers, it computers that costs $2,000, that is now $1,000 for twice as fireful. Actually, that cancers are decrease in GDP of $1,000, right? So deflationary powers.”
2024-06-20 · Forward Guidance · Venture Capitalist Who Called 2021 “Everything Bubble” Thinks VC Valuations Are “Reasonable” | Fabrice Grinda, Super Angel Investor, on Geopolitical Threats, AI, and Yield-Bearing Stablecoins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“In fact, more profoundly than the most optimistic people believe will happen today, but it also is going to take a lot longer. So I think you're not going to start seeing it in the underlying real productivity stats for 10, 20 years. And the big company and government's like, when do I think governments are going to use it effectively to lower costs? And probably they're going to be the last mover because public service, they”
2024-06-20 · Forward Guidance · Venture Capitalist Who Called 2021 “Everything Bubble” Thinks VC Valuations Are “Reasonable” | Fabrice Grinda, Super Angel Investor, on Geopolitical Threats, AI, and Yield-Bearing Stablecoins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So, when do you think a company like whatever, Mercer, is going to be using AI to like improve, to do claims processing? I mean, because of the liability, they can't have hallucination. They're going to wait until it's, I mean, they need 99.99% certainty. And it's way harder to get the last 0.01, let alone the last 20%, the first 80%. And so before I see it, so I am hoping it is going to lead to a productivity revolution. It is going to change the face of the earth.”
2024-06-20 · Forward Guidance · Venture Capitalist Who Called 2021 “Everything Bubble” Thinks VC Valuations Are “Reasonable” | Fabrice Grinda, Super Angel Investor, on Geopolitical Threats, AI, and Yield-Bearing Stablecoins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“More efficient because they use AI. So everyone's lowering costs through AI in startups. And at the same time, we're also using AI to possibly improve the user experience. So for instance, we're investors in a handbag marketplace company called Rebag. And the old way you would sell a handbag on eBay is take your phone, you take 20 photos, you write a title, you write a description, you set a price, you select a category. It's a lot of work. Rebag, you take a few photos, the AI, they have all the data because they're the handbag marketplace. They're the Kelly Blue book of the category. They pick, they write the title, the category, the condition, tell you if it's real or not, and they sell the price and sold in five minutes, right? It's completely revolutionary. But if you think of when does it actually impact the main economy? The main economy in the world is public services, so government, and B2B, like petrochemicals, like multi-trillion dollars accounts.”
2024-06-20 · Forward Guidance · Venture Capitalist Who Called 2021 “Everything Bubble” Thinks VC Valuations Are “Reasonable” | Fabrice Grinda, Super Angel Investor, on Geopolitical Threats, AI, and Yield-Bearing Stablecoins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Million food drone deliveries in Shenzhen to date. And Shenzhen is one of the highest density cities in the world. If you can do drone delivery by food, which means marginal cost delivery of zero in Shenzhen, you can do it anywhere. We're starting to see the self-driving taxis in China coming to the fore. So we're actually getting to the point that technology is good enough that it's going to come to the fore. AI, what right now NVIDIA is seeing profits and growth, et cetera, because people are buying the AI chips and they're using AI. When does it actually show up in the underlying company P&L? I think it's going to take a long, long time, right? Like, so my tech startups are early adopters of technology. All of our startups are using AI for three things. We're definitely replacing customer care and or adding customer care. We're making our engineers more efficient. Or engineers who now at least 30%, if not 50%.”
2024-06-20 · Forward Guidance · Venture Capitalist Who Called 2021 “Everything Bubble” Thinks VC Valuations Are “Reasonable” | Fabrice Grinda, Super Angel Investor, on Geopolitical Threats, AI, and Yield-Bearing Stablecoins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Which sets in and lasts a fair amount of time. And let me take you back to like 1980, 1998, 1999. People were believing in like, you know, pets.com or web van or actually. There was a company called, I think, that's doing like 15 minute or 20 minute, 30 minute delivery. All these went under, but actually the ideas were sound. It's just it was too early. Penetration is too low. You didn't have geolocalization with smartphones. So right now we have Chewy. We can buy toys online on whatever on Amazon and you have like all the food delivery companies. All these are viable. In the early 2010s, you had like a massive overhype on self-driving cars. And self-driving basically is completely ignored right now. It's gone either wayside. People believe it's not going to happen. Maybe never. And yet we're actually finally seeing things like we're seeing a million.”
2024-06-20 · Forward Guidance · Venture Capitalist Who Called 2021 “Everything Bubble” Thinks VC Valuations Are “Reasonable” | Fabrice Grinda, Super Angel Investor, on Geopolitical Threats, AI, and Yield-Bearing Stablecoins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, so 23 Waller is describing the median seed raise of like three at nine pre, 12 posts, and the median A of like seven at 23 pre-3D posts, the mean is way higher because what was happening is you were seeing like AI companies are raising seeds of like 20 at 80 pre and A's of like whatever 100 at 300 pre, something completely ludicrous and I found that most of them were interesting and really interesting products where they were like using non-differentiated data using non-differentiated LMs with not clear business models. And I thought most of these are going to be zero definitely not going to love up to the hype. So what happens in all technologies is it comes out, people are extremely excited and there's a hype cycle. You know, the Gardner hype cycle where you're at the top of the hype cycle where everyone's like, it's going to change the world, et cetera. And then there's a period of disillusionment and disappointment.”
2024-06-20 · Forward Guidance · Venture Capitalist Who Called 2021 “Everything Bubble” Thinks VC Valuations Are “Reasonable” | Fabrice Grinda, Super Angel Investor, on Geopolitical Threats, AI, and Yield-Bearing Stablecoins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And how bullish are you on the specific subsector of AI based companies? Observers in the public markets will note that it is only a relatively small number of stocks that are the market perceives as AI beneficiaries. And if you look at actually net income and revenue that gets even smaller and really less the magnificent seven is more magnificent one NVIDIA, whose, I mean, whose growth has just been incredible, I believe, unprecedented for any company sufficiently large. But in the private markets, I don't really know what it's looking like. So you just described that environment a little bit earlier. You said that the AI sector was extremely hot and maybe slightly less hot. So yeah, describe the scenario as well as your views on it.”
2024-06-20 · Forward Guidance · Venture Capitalist Who Called 2021 “Everything Bubble” Thinks VC Valuations Are “Reasonable” | Fabrice Grinda, Super Angel Investor, on Geopolitical Threats, AI, and Yield-Bearing Stablecoins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Are focusing on burn and unit economics, trying to solve big problems. So I'm beyond profoundly bullish on the venture space. And even if recession happens, we gain share. We take share away from the less efficient offline world and you grow maybe you grow less fast, but you still grow. So I'm beyond bullish.”
2024-06-20 · Forward Guidance · Venture Capitalist Who Called 2021 “Everything Bubble” Thinks VC Valuations Are “Reasonable” | Fabrice Grinda, Super Angel Investor, on Geopolitical Threats, AI, and Yield-Bearing Stablecoins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Soft landing 10% somehow were okay. And now I'm 10, 20% recession and more likely just chug along as like the majority case in like soft landing and like 20-30% probability. So it's definitely changed my perspective. But with this Demokley sword of geopolitics, which I think could surprise us negatively at any time, but who knows when, why, et cetera. And you can't live life worrying about it. And so I just keep chugging me along and executing. And again, the business cycle I care about the most is not the one I'm investing in today. It's the exits in five, 10, 7, 10 years when these companies mature. So in the venture space specifically, I actually think now is the very best time to be investing in venture. Less competition, reasonable valuations, founders.”
2024-06-20 · Forward Guidance · Venture Capitalist Who Called 2021 “Everything Bubble” Thinks VC Valuations Are “Reasonable” | Fabrice Grinda, Super Angel Investor, on Geopolitical Threats, AI, and Yield-Bearing Stablecoins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“A geopolitical accident, I think we just keep chugging along. I don't think we're going to have extraordinary growth, but I don't see a recession either. That said, do I think there's a real risk of an exogenous shock to the system from whatever China blockheating Taiwan to what happens if Trump is elected to whatever? Yes. And those are exogenous, but ultimately employment remains strong. wage growth remains strong and it seems to be overbalancing all the negatives we have in the system and maybe we end up clearing the bank balance sheets and the commercial real estate debt etc it's going to take a while by the way but i think i look at the world in probabilistic terms as you do and in 22 i think i was like 66 recession you know and and like uh or let's say 60 recession 30”
2024-06-20 · Forward Guidance · Venture Capitalist Who Called 2021 “Everything Bubble” Thinks VC Valuations Are “Reasonable” | Fabrice Grinda, Super Angel Investor, on Geopolitical Threats, AI, and Yield-Bearing Stablecoins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“There will eventually be a recession, but it doesn't need to be related this cycle specifically. It looks like right now, should we end up with price more under control, that we're more likely to be heading for rate decreases, the rate increases. And so, I mean, I'm not underwriting many rate decreases, but in small rate decreases in the future, but I could see us in a year's time.”
2024-06-20 · Forward Guidance · Venture Capitalist Who Called 2021 “Everything Bubble” Thinks VC Valuations Are “Reasonable” | Fabrice Grinda, Super Angel Investor, on Geopolitical Threats, AI, and Yield-Bearing Stablecoins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Deposits SVP fell, but frankly, deposits everywhere have been falling pretty dramatically because you're better off being in T-bills and money market funds than in your bank checking account.”
2024-06-20 · Forward Guidance · Venture Capitalist Who Called 2021 “Everything Bubble” Thinks VC Valuations Are “Reasonable” | Fabrice Grinda, Super Angel Investor, on Geopolitical Threats, AI, and Yield-Bearing Stablecoins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Exactly. Yeah. And by the way, banks in general, I mean, going back to macro point, part of the reason I was worried about the macro is as rates go up, people just move money out of banks into T-bills and money market funds. And so the bank deposits reason it would go down, which is the companies are burning capital. We're not raising any more money. So obviously deposits are going down. But bank deposits were at large have been falling pretty dramatically. At the same time as commercial real estate debt have been defaulting. And so banks also on their balance sheet is being ballooned by like these commercial real estate companies that they're taking over. And that's why I was worried because I'm like, oh, lending is going to fall. And so it's one of the reasons I thought maybe we would have a recession because the higher rate environment, but consumer, because employment has remained strong and wage growth has remained strong, it hasn't happened. So it's been more than overcome stated. But yeah, you explain why.”
2024-06-20 · Forward Guidance · Venture Capitalist Who Called 2021 “Everything Bubble” Thinks VC Valuations Are “Reasonable” | Fabrice Grinda, Super Angel Investor, on Geopolitical Threats, AI, and Yield-Bearing Stablecoins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Could see that looking at Silicon Valley banks filings and investor presentations, the enormous amount of fundraising that occurred in 2020 and 2021 caused deposits to surge as money flooded into the bank accounts of VCs and VC-back companies. Then when the fundraising slowed down, there still was an influx, but just a lot less. And the deposits went down so much because venture cap, as you said, they are often or almost all the time burning money and losing money. So their deposits would go down.”
2024-06-20 · Forward Guidance · Venture Capitalist Who Called 2021 “Everything Bubble” Thinks VC Valuations Are “Reasonable” | Fabrice Grinda, Super Angel Investor, on Geopolitical Threats, AI, and Yield-Bearing Stablecoins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“To employees, et cetera, we can be losing the assets we have under management. We're not speculating with that money. It's literally it's in cash because we need to be writing checks every day. Multiple checks every day and wires, et cetera. So we just want banks that we can send money with easily. And the traditional banks meet sending wires too painful. It means that simple.”
2024-06-20 · Forward Guidance · Venture Capitalist Who Called 2021 “Everything Bubble” Thinks VC Valuations Are “Reasonable” | Fabrice Grinda, Super Angel Investor, on Geopolitical Threats, AI, and Yield-Bearing Stablecoins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“That is accurate, but with a wrinkle that before look, we never saw a job as like, should we be doing credit checks on the banks that we bank with? No, we assume the banks are sad, right? And so we had all of our assets in one bank and we were not multi-banks. Now everyone in the venture world and everyone of our portfolio companies as multiple banking relationships. And so we bank with JPMorgan Chase and Morgan Sandley. I mean, we have now we have many bank accounts because we don't want what happened here to happen ever again. And I'm glad that the FDIC decided to ensure the entire all the deposits because the reality is, again, I don't think it's our business to be looking at the balance sheet of banks to decide whether or not they're sound. We just want a place to park money that's safe. Because again, we're using it for cash management. We're not doing any, we're money losing companies, right? And as a result, we're writing checks.”
2024-06-20 · Forward Guidance · Venture Capitalist Who Called 2021 “Everything Bubble” Thinks VC Valuations Are “Reasonable” | Fabrice Grinda, Super Angel Investor, on Geopolitical Threats, AI, and Yield-Bearing Stablecoins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“How quickly do you open a bank account? How quickly, if you need a wire to have it, how quickly do they wire it? If you ask a question, do they pick up the phone? Try to go open a bank account at Citibank. And it's like a painful process of days and paperwork and like try to talk to someone there. No one ever replies. I mean, it's like an anonymous person in India somewhere in a call center may talk to you, but I mean just someone who's consumer-centric and friendly. We didn't bank with them because they gave us better rates. We bank with them because they were customer friendly. Their NPS score, the experience was high. And in fact, I think we still bank with them because they're so friendly and great to work with.”
2024-06-20 · Forward Guidance · Venture Capitalist Who Called 2021 “Everything Bubble” Thinks VC Valuations Are “Reasonable” | Fabrice Grinda, Super Angel Investor, on Geopolitical Threats, AI, and Yield-Bearing Stablecoins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Now, worthy SED guys prudent? No, they should have been way more prudent. That said, I happy SV customer? Yes. And I wasn't happy with them because they were giving me higher rates on my checking average savings, et cetera. No, they're just easier to work with. We all banked at SVB because they're friendly and they're easier to work with.”
2024-06-20 · Forward Guidance · Venture Capitalist Who Called 2021 “Everything Bubble” Thinks VC Valuations Are “Reasonable” | Fabrice Grinda, Super Angel Investor, on Geopolitical Threats, AI, and Yield-Bearing Stablecoins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Is ready because it takes three, four, five, six months to raise money. So it was pretty harrowing set of hours. And by the way, all of that didn't need to happen, right? What happened is the accounting rules for banks was changed such that if you intend to hold the security maturity, you don't need to write a market. And so that's what kept creating as rates grow went up in the valley bonds went down that ever bigger increase in the difference between book value and market value. And that was all driven by, I think, an accounting law change approved by Congress in 2017 to 2018. If we just kept mark to market, that massive delta and gap would not have happened, nor were that incentive to buy higher riskier rate bonds have existed in the first place. And so it was that basic.”
2024-06-20 · Forward Guidance · Venture Capitalist Who Called 2021 “Everything Bubble” Thinks VC Valuations Are “Reasonable” | Fabrice Grinda, Super Angel Investor, on Geopolitical Threats, AI, and Yield-Bearing Stablecoins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So we immediately pulled our funds. So we actually, because obviously we had more than 250K, the FDIC limit, and we were aware that doing that was an effort everyone else did that was likely to, you know, the bank runners were going to lead the bank to fail. But if we didn't do it, obviously it's a basic game theoretical problem where the Nash equilibrium is a negative outcome where everyone pulls the money and as a result. So if no one pulled the money, it would survive. But if anyone, if people do and you don't, you lose your money. So everyone does it and the national equilibrium is a negative outcome. So we pull the money immediately. So we were okay. But then we realized a lot of our portfolio companies had not pulled it on time. And by the time they tried, and so we had a few portfolio companies that had like 100% of the balances there. So we had like emergency board meetings on like Sunday for like, what do we do? We have to make payroll and we don't have any money and we can't.”
2024-06-20 · Forward Guidance · Venture Capitalist Who Called 2021 “Everything Bubble” Thinks VC Valuations Are “Reasonable” | Fabrice Grinda, Super Angel Investor, on Geopolitical Threats, AI, and Yield-Bearing Stablecoins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Oh, yeah, there are a lot of things that would be good for America. We should have way more open immigration policy for both low skill and high skilled because it increases actually our national welfare and shrink and improves our demographics dramatically. We should have a much simpler tax system with a flat tie. I mean, there's so many things you should have that we don't have. There's a difference between wishful thinking, what I think will happen. I don't think it'll happen anytime soon.”
2024-06-20 · Forward Guidance · Venture Capitalist Who Called 2021 “Everything Bubble” Thinks VC Valuations Are “Reasonable” | Fabrice Grinda, Super Angel Investor, on Geopolitical Threats, AI, and Yield-Bearing Stablecoins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Right, just because you think you're saying it would be a good thing for America if we had a UPI, but you think it would be a good thing doesn't mean that that's necessarily what's going to happen in the U.S.”
2024-06-20 · Forward Guidance · Venture Capitalist Who Called 2021 “Everything Bubble” Thinks VC Valuations Are “Reasonable” | Fabrice Grinda, Super Angel Investor, on Geopolitical Threats, AI, and Yield-Bearing Stablecoins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I'm definitely not short in the short term neither of these, but I wouldn't be an investor of their stock anyway. I prefer the stuff that goes from zero to a thousand, that stuff that's already established.”
2024-06-20 · Forward Guidance · Venture Capitalist Who Called 2021 “Everything Bubble” Thinks VC Valuations Are “Reasonable” | Fabrice Grinda, Super Angel Investor, on Geopolitical Threats, AI, and Yield-Bearing Stablecoins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Well, they are not necessarily because they have a lot of regulatory capture and power. And I'm sure they're going to fight this to the nail, right? Like this is the last thing they want to have happen. And the places where it happened, the penetration of credit cards was low, right? So the reason I don't think they fought it all that hard ultimately in Brazil and India is not that many people were wealthy enough to have credit cards and have good credit scores to justify having credit cards. And so you could build a completely brand new independent credit payment rails. Here where there's an incumbent to incumbents, I suspect it's going to be very, very hard. So I'm not, if I was to take a bet, I'd say there remain they were that it doesn't happen in the next decade and they remain the primary payment rule. So I wouldn't be.”
2024-06-20 · Forward Guidance · Venture Capitalist Who Called 2021 “Everything Bubble” Thinks VC Valuations Are “Reasonable” | Fabrice Grinda, Super Angel Investor, on Geopolitical Threats, AI, and Yield-Bearing Stablecoins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, I mean, UPI, yeah. UPI, if we could copy and paste UPI or picks for that matter, I'd be extraordinarily delighted and happy. And the Fed has been kind of trying them, a product called Fed Now, but it's only supported by regional banks because obviously a lot of the banks don't want to lose the interchange, which is a big chunk of the business model and hasn't reached public awareness yet. And it's not consumer facing really yet. So there are efforts in that direction, but I think it will take a decade or more to happen in the West.”
2024-06-20 · Forward Guidance · Venture Capitalist Who Called 2021 “Everything Bubble” Thinks VC Valuations Are “Reasonable” | Fabrice Grinda, Super Angel Investor, on Geopolitical Threats, AI, and Yield-Bearing Stablecoins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“The Chinese equivalent, the big ones, which are actually private or we pay. Crimson and Alipay from Alibaba. But the government hated them. And so they obviously shut down the IPO and financial means. So I'm an Austrian ant, very disappointed investor in. So in China, it came back from the private side that the government hated them and has like been trying to do its best to kill them and replace them with their internal equivalent. Yeah. I would like something like that to exist in the US.”
2024-06-20 · Forward Guidance · Venture Capitalist Who Called 2021 “Everything Bubble” Thinks VC Valuations Are “Reasonable” | Fabrice Grinda, Super Angel Investor, on Geopolitical Threats, AI, and Yield-Bearing Stablecoins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Exactly. So, do I think it's possible? I think the answer is absolutely yes. And it's just when I think through what are governments willing to give control up of and what I think is most likely to happen, I suspect that the more likely answer in terms of the outcome is that something like UPI or PICS, which is ultimately government controlled and regulated, is what happens in payments rather than a crypto rail payment system. I'm not saying it can happen. I'm just saying probabilistically, I suspect that's not what's going to happen, even though they will have a role to play and a meaningful role, especially when it comes to inter-country payments and exchanges and intra-currency systems. I mean, Dollar App, if you haven't played, it's 1L, DOLAR, APP, is extraordinary. And by the way, the entire crypto rails is obfuscated. You're not aware that there's a crypto component to it. It's just done.”
2024-06-20 · Forward Guidance · Venture Capitalist Who Called 2021 “Everything Bubble” Thinks VC Valuations Are “Reasonable” | Fabrice Grinda, Super Angel Investor, on Geopolitical Threats, AI, and Yield-Bearing Stablecoins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Suspect that if you can move that to a world where zero, it would unleash extraordinary value. And there are two examples of countries where it's happened. Now, could I build that on crypto, especially if I use something very cheap like Solana? Like, could Solana pay become an amazing payment mechanism? The answer is yes.”
2024-06-20 · Forward Guidance · Venture Capitalist Who Called 2021 “Everything Bubble” Thinks VC Valuations Are “Reasonable” | Fabrice Grinda, Super Angel Investor, on Geopolitical Threats, AI, and Yield-Bearing Stablecoins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“No, I'm not saying that, right? Like your amazing crypto adjacent payment applications like DollarApp, Dollar App has a crypto rail and they allow you, they're doing like over a billion in payments and they allow you to like transfer money from the US to Mexico and Peso to Dollar, et cetera, like the cheapest by far and cheaper than everything else from transfer-wise, et cetera. And from that perspective, it's revolutionary. I'm saying, but within country. So more things. Payment drills, what I don't like in the West is everyone's paying on credit cards with Visa and MasterCard and American Express with a effective tax, the interchange rate of like, let's say 0.8% to 3%, depending on the country, the category, the merchant, the acquiring, et cetera.”
2024-06-20 · Forward Guidance · Venture Capitalist Who Called 2021 “Everything Bubble” Thinks VC Valuations Are “Reasonable” | Fabrice Grinda, Super Angel Investor, on Geopolitical Threats, AI, and Yield-Bearing Stablecoins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Creating tokenized assets as a means of transforming the financial world to world that is digital, digitized, and happening on a real-time basis, I think is the long-term vision. We could easily tokenize bonds. We can easily tokenize stocks. Now, does it actually make sense given in the West? You can easily, you know, go to Robinhood or E-Trade, not necessarily. So I'm not saying, but from a long-term vision perspective, we need to reinvent the rails of the traditional financial system such that it's digital and operating 24-7 without all these layers of intermediaries and fees. And crypto rails are a way to do it. Now, payments, I suspect, we're not going to go down the crypto route. And I think we're going to copy the examples of Brazil and Russia with picks and UPI, Russia, India. So India with UPI as a completely free real-time payment system that works between consumer and”
2024-06-20 · Forward Guidance · Venture Capitalist Who Called 2021 “Everything Bubble” Thinks VC Valuations Are “Reasonable” | Fabrice Grinda, Super Angel Investor, on Geopolitical Threats, AI, and Yield-Bearing Stablecoins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, look, I think we're at the very beginning of a transformation of the financial markets. The traditional financial markets need to be reinvented, right? Like the way, imagine. It doesn't make sense to me that in 2024, if I want to buy Apple stock and you want to sell Apple sock, we call her bankers. They execute the trade. A broker, a banker, and the settlement is T plus seventy two. And it only happens during business hours. I mean, That makes no sense, right? Like, why can't you be doing it 24-7 with no intermediaries in real time? If I wire money to someone, there's no real-time tracking. And so”
2024-06-20 · Forward Guidance · Venture Capitalist Who Called 2021 “Everything Bubble” Thinks VC Valuations Are “Reasonable” | Fabrice Grinda, Super Angel Investor, on Geopolitical Threats, AI, and Yield-Bearing Stablecoins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So, you have multiple ways of designing your token. You could be something called rebasing. So meaning you buy, it's always worth one and the interest just means you get more of it, or it could be accumulating, which means that the interest accrues little by little and keeps compounding. So we've for a number of reasons, we've chosen to be accumulating. So the value just keeps accruing. You have a dollar, it becomes $1.5, it becomes $1.11, and it keeps going up, basically. So it's increasing in value, accumulating in value.”
2024-06-20 · Forward Guidance · Venture Capitalist Who Called 2021 “Everything Bubble” Thinks VC Valuations Are “Reasonable” | Fabrice Grinda, Super Angel Investor, on Geopolitical Threats, AI, and Yield-Bearing Stablecoins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And you keep looping it, so you do a 10 to 1 leverage, let's say, or at 90%. And you're five and a quarter becomes 15 or 20. So that's one use case. And you can get a lovered long trade that's extraordinarily profitable. Another use case is if you want to be a collateral for something instead of you posting USDC or USD as collateral, putting the MT bill as collateral is better because the value of your collateral is increasing over time because you're getting the interest. So if you're collateral for borrowing, whatever BDC, ETH, whatever, you're still better off putting MTBL than USDC as collateral.”
2024-06-20 · Forward Guidance · Venture Capitalist Who Called 2021 “Everything Bubble” Thinks VC Valuations Are “Reasonable” | Fabrice Grinda, Super Angel Investor, on Geopolitical Threats, AI, and Yield-Bearing Stablecoins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So it depends what you want to be doing, right? Like if you're super long on Ether BDC, what you could do is you instead of you deposit your MT, well, if you're the right vault. So if we have the right liquidity vault, depending on the rates, the easiest thing to do is you go to Morpho. Let's say that people were in a bearish environment where DeFi rates are low. You deposit MT bill, you borrow USDC or Tether at let's say 2%. And then you buy MT bill at five and a quarter and then you keep and you can because the US government, the volatility on T-bills is zero. And so you can do an LTV of maybe 90%. So you put $1,000, you borrow $900 at two. I'm making up the rates because currently they're high, but at 2%. With that, you buy in T-bill that's leading 5.4%. You deposit $900, and then you borrow $800.”
2024-06-20 · Forward Guidance · Venture Capitalist Who Called 2021 “Everything Bubble” Thinks VC Valuations Are “Reasonable” | Fabrice Grinda, Super Angel Investor, on Geopolitical Threats, AI, and Yield-Bearing Stablecoins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Well, in crypto, many of the protocols either are not are just not bankruptcy remote. And so the protocol goes under, you lose your assets. And so we've made sure that you own your own assets, regardless of what happens to us. And you're not doing margin with us, right? Like, so you may be borrowing on a third party like Morpho, but you're not doing it with us. We're a primary issure. Like you come to us for primary assurance or redemption.”
2024-06-20 · Forward Guidance · Venture Capitalist Who Called 2021 “Everything Bubble” Thinks VC Valuations Are “Reasonable” | Fabrice Grinda, Super Angel Investor, on Geopolitical Threats, AI, and Yield-Bearing Stablecoins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yes. So bankruptcy remote, what that means is if we go under your assets or yours and because we own the underlying assets or T-bills, you have your own assets. So even if the company went under, you sold access to, you still own the underlying assets and you can recoup them. So the only risk you're taking is US government default, right? So the actual T-bill risk. So we're not commingling, you know, the funds are not in our own name. They were actually at your own wallet. It's not like SBF, if you want. And what they were doing FTX, where they basically were, they were playing with the client's money. And if they weren't under, they lost the money of their clients. So Banker CRO is something that's reasonably rare still in the crypto world, but should be, I think, the norm where even if you go under the clients own their underlying assets and they can recoup them.”
2024-06-20 · Forward Guidance · Venture Capitalist Who Called 2021 “Everything Bubble” Thinks VC Valuations Are “Reasonable” | Fabrice Grinda, Super Angel Investor, on Geopolitical Threats, AI, and Yield-Bearing Stablecoins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Prevent fraudulent use cases and yet allow for innovation. And I hope that that comes at some point. Historically, the US has been the HEPI center.”
2024-06-20 · Forward Guidance · Venture Capitalist Who Called 2021 “Everything Bubble” Thinks VC Valuations Are “Reasonable” | Fabrice Grinda, Super Angel Investor, on Geopolitical Threats, AI, and Yield-Bearing Stablecoins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Oh, for sure. I mean, the fact that what we've done in Europe completely regulatory compliant, et cetera, is actually an illustration of that. What we're offering, I mean, think of it, we're buying UST bills. This is great for the US government. We're financing its debt. You would think this is the one product they would love and yet illegal in the US. I mean, it's like ridiculous. So the US has been extraordinarily conservative and backwards. And I would like them and I hope that at some point they become more forward thinking. Now admittedly, has there been a lot of fraud in crypto over the years? Absolutely. I see ICOs, meme coins, things that have zero underlying value. But that doesn't mean regularly the entire category out of existence. It means be a smart regulator. The problem is sadly the regulators have not been particularly competent or smart. So I would like smarter regulation in the U.S. where you can actually have very, you know.”
2024-06-20 · Forward Guidance · Venture Capitalist Who Called 2021 “Everything Bubble” Thinks VC Valuations Are “Reasonable” | Fabrice Grinda, Super Angel Investor, on Geopolitical Threats, AI, and Yield-Bearing Stablecoins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Any country other than you ask the sanctioned country? So we're European regulated, which means you can bias anywhere from Latin America to Africa. I mean, anywhere unless you're sanctioned or U.S.”
2024-06-20 · Forward Guidance · Venture Capitalist Who Called 2021 “Everything Bubble” Thinks VC Valuations Are “Reasonable” | Fabrice Grinda, Super Angel Investor, on Geopolitical Threats, AI, and Yield-Bearing Stablecoins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, way more sound, but they cannot give you yield because they gave you yield. It'd be a security token and they want to be a registered security in the US. It would actually defeat the purpose of everything they've built. Now we are not available in the US because for that exact reason, we're a solution that is regulated in a social grade, but it's non-US. And given what Circle would like to do, I don't think that's a path they can go under or into unless their US regulatory regime changes dramatically, in which case, yes, or the incumbent's better position to do this than we are. In theory, the answer is yes, but regulatorly, I don't think they can change the structure to which either of those are and they cannot be yield-bearing, right? And the SEC has been going, anyone who's been trying to give yield-bearing counts pretty aggressively from Coinbase to Block 50.”
2024-06-20 · Forward Guidance · Venture Capitalist Who Called 2021 “Everything Bubble” Thinks VC Valuations Are “Reasonable” | Fabrice Grinda, Super Angel Investor, on Geopolitical Threats, AI, and Yield-Bearing Stablecoins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“If there was ever a hole in the Tether bank account balance sheet because of the money they've been printing of late, I bet they've plugged it.”
2024-06-20 · Forward Guidance · Venture Capitalist Who Called 2021 “Everything Bubble” Thinks VC Valuations Are “Reasonable” | Fabrice Grinda, Super Angel Investor, on Geopolitical Threats, AI, and Yield-Bearing Stablecoins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT