YouSaid · the spoken record

Felix

lines on the record: 54
first: 2024-10-09
most recent: 2024-10-09
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

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“That's what I'm doing. And in terms of hedge on wines, like, yeah, If we get a bunch of hedge on wines, and there's this explosive melt upwards in the equity markets and Bitcoin, like do you chase it? If it's Bitcoin on a Trump win, yes. If it's equities on a hedge on wine before the election, probably not.”
2024-10-09 · Forward Guidance · LIVE From Permissionless | Forward Guidance & 1000x Collab Stream · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“SP 500 ETF because I think that sort of the magnificent seven have run quite a lot and I think it's time to invest in other American companies, a diversified portfolio. I'm not an equities expert, but I do think it's time to diversify away from NVIDIA and Meta, you know, and Google.”
2024-10-09 · Forward Guidance · LIVE From Permissionless | Forward Guidance & 1000x Collab Stream · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I don't, well, put it this way. Let's start with crypto and then let's go to equities. For crypto, I agree with Avi. Impossible to trade the short term. What I'm looking to do is stay up all night on election night if Trump wins. I'm going to buy a breakout. Even if it's 63K Bitcoin going into the... Going into the sort of polling, and then it trades up to 75 on a Trump win. I'm buying 75s, right? If Kamala wins, I'm just going to sit on my hands and wait for it to new.”
2024-10-09 · Forward Guidance · LIVE From Permissionless | Forward Guidance & 1000x Collab Stream · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Right now, I'm wondering what you guys think about this. But when I look at just the amount of hedges on right now, like if you look at like the VIX contracts for next month, the next couple months, people are so hedge right now that I feel like this is a work in theory. But regardless of the election outcome, it's going to be an incredible rally just from the hedge on lines. What do you guys think?”
2024-10-09 · Forward Guidance · LIVE From Permissionless | Forward Guidance & 1000x Collab Stream · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Low time frame, guys. I don't know. I have no literally no idea. And the reason I have literally no idea is because heading into the election, you're going to see a lot of chop, in my personal opinion. I don't think anyone is able or capable of taking strong positions ahead of the election because the outcome is for all of crypto is so divergent pre-election that what you're probably going to see is a lot of chop. And it might, you know, some of it might actually look like momentum. You might get faked out. We might go up 15% because a bunch of shorts pile in and they get squeezed. I think the true of equities as well. I do genuinely do genuinely believe that there's probably... Just a we're in a waiting period right now”
2024-10-09 · Forward Guidance · LIVE From Permissionless | Forward Guidance & 1000x Collab Stream · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And to your point about TikTok and seeing other people's wealth until that ends, which it probably won't cash as trash, no government is going to have the mandate to go into austerity. Like you have to be long leveraged risk assets of which crypto is one of them.”
2024-10-09 · Forward Guidance · LIVE From Permissionless | Forward Guidance & 1000x Collab Stream · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Just about half. Yeah, there is no concept of balancing the budget. Of not spending too much. What are we going to direct our efforts towards? And I think it's, I mean, if you really think about it, it's the culture of the states that is the crux and the focus of everyone right now. It's not about what we're doing with our money. It's about how we interact with each other. That's become the governing philosophy of politics.”
2024-10-09 · Forward Guidance · LIVE From Permissionless | Forward Guidance & 1000x Collab Stream · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And that's not getting to the election outcome thing. Yes, there's slight differences in terms of policy, but the vast majority is going to be the same thing, which is we're going to print. We're going to run a deficit. It's just about half.”
2024-10-09 · Forward Guidance · LIVE From Permissionless | Forward Guidance & 1000x Collab Stream · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“It's going to go one of two ways. Either we're going to get Tons of it, and we're going to have communists in charge, or we're going to, or the capitalists are going to basically take it away because the budget doesn't work out when you leave it in there. I mean,”
2024-10-09 · Forward Guidance · LIVE From Permissionless | Forward Guidance & 1000x Collab Stream · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Any money. This is actually an interesting incentive, right? What are your incentives? He knew that he was guaranteed a pension of a certain amount until he died. So he never had to invest any money, right? He would spend, he would just spend his money on things or put it in a bank account and he didn't, we didn't worry if that bank account lost money because he knew he was getting a pension. Nobody in our generation has that luxury. We might not even get social.”
2024-10-09 · Forward Guidance · LIVE From Permissionless | Forward Guidance & 1000x Collab Stream · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I mean, it's funny when I look at my dad and how he made his money. I mean, he's retired and he has a pension. I don't think I'm going to get a pension. I don't think that's really going to exist when I'm successful in the meetings. He never invested.”
2024-10-09 · Forward Guidance · LIVE From Permissionless | Forward Guidance & 1000x Collab Stream · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“When all of our parents advised us like that, and then we watched them get rich off of their real estate. And then we had buy houses in the hills on government salaries for 70 grand that suddenly become worth one, two, three, four million dollars. And then our generation inherits that. We're going to say, well, what worked for them and what's going to work for me? Is it going to be Saving money in cash while the money printer runs overtime, or should I invest in the real estate of our generation, which is overwhelmingly digital in terms of what people spend their time? To your point, Avi, I really do think that wealth transfer is something important to be monitored for our space.”
2024-10-09 · Forward Guidance · LIVE From Permissionless | Forward Guidance & 1000x Collab Stream · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Super illiquid. What I would say about this massive wealth transfer that Avi pointed to and alluded to is that when it does take place and it's already starting, you know, boomers to millennials and Gen Z. That wealth transfer. How old are you, Fijo? 30. Okay. I'm 39 I want to ask you a follow up question to that. My parents advised me a penny save is a penny earned, keep it safe, don't invest in risky stuff like stocks. Just save your cash. It was the worst friggin' advice I've ever gotten in my life. Did your parents advise you of that too?”
2024-10-09 · Forward Guidance · LIVE From Permissionless | Forward Guidance & 1000x Collab Stream · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“It is a bubble that hasn't died. And when a bubble doesn't die and roars and comes back to life, it is your job if you are a rational investor to at least take it seriously. You don't have to, your conclusion doesn't have to be the same as mine, but you do have to take it. Do the work.”
2024-10-09 · Forward Guidance · LIVE From Permissionless | Forward Guidance & 1000x Collab Stream · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Did you know the same thing happened with railroads and the same thing happened with airline stocks in the early 1900s? Every company became the Long Island airline company instead of Long Island blockchain. Oh my god, like, and guess what? All of those technologies turned out to be pretty good. I mean, you know, the Erie, well, actually the Erie Canal was railroaded by railroads, but yeah, you know.”
2024-10-09 · Forward Guidance · LIVE From Permissionless | Forward Guidance & 1000x Collab Stream · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Oh my god, it's the most annoying thing in the world. They always bring up the tulips as if that's the only financial bubble that's ever existed in the history of financial bubbles. No, you guys are cherry-picking the one that didn't work. Come on. I mean, not to get annoyed about this, but did you know that in the 1800s there was a canal stock bubble? I actually did know that. After they built they built the Erie Canal, it was so exciting to people, the concept of a canal to move goods that hundreds of different companies popped up to raise money to build their own canal. And it buoyed the stock market. And it went up in a straight line until they all collapsed because nobody actually built the canal.”
2024-10-09 · Forward Guidance · LIVE From Permissionless | Forward Guidance & 1000x Collab Stream · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“After you read the Soros book, I think the Bitcoin will be the reflexive asset once we break through new highs. I think there'll be a lot of chasing. And frankly, even if you don't believe that, Bitcoin is the most performant asset of this millennium. It is impossible to ignore the stellar performance of... This thing called Bitcoin. And I think that the next leg higher, again, like it's going to, the tulip analogies will fall by the wayside”
2024-10-09 · Forward Guidance · LIVE From Permissionless | Forward Guidance & 1000x Collab Stream · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Even if that weren't the case, just access alone is too bottlenecked for traditional, let's call it, debasement hedges like gold. And the next debasement sort of adventure that the governments of the world decide to embark upon, you know, I think crypto, specifically Bitcoin, to your point, you talk a lot about reflexivity, Avi”
2024-10-09 · Forward Guidance · LIVE From Permissionless | Forward Guidance & 1000x Collab Stream · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“These are global phenomena, right? Like in the US, Gen Z has the option to buy iBit or GLD, so Bitcoin or gold, if you live, you know, if you're a younger person in Mexico or Bolivia or something, I'm not sure if you have that GLD option, but you can certainly buy Bitcoin on Binance, right? So even if it weren't for the fact that young people overwhelmingly prefer to gamble on crypto versus other assets like gold.”
2024-10-09 · Forward Guidance · LIVE From Permissionless | Forward Guidance & 1000x Collab Stream · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“There's an appetite. I think it's rational in a way Look, I don't know if it's necessarily rational. I want to hear you out, but just I think it's It's a function of feeling like you don't have what you need to have. I do happen to think that a lot of people in this world are much better off than they were 30 years ago. And so it's still a comparison game, not necessarily a rational thought process. Maybe logical is more the word.”
2024-10-09 · Forward Guidance · LIVE From Permissionless | Forward Guidance & 1000x Collab Stream · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“There are people that are going to do this for basically their entire 20s. They're going to inherit what their parents have and then they're going to do it at an even greater scale. And that's why, again, so even if you throw out, like, let's pretend the Bitcoin is completely useless, there's a tremendous wealth transfer that's about to occur over the next 20 to 25 years. And based on the culture that we've established for ourselves, there's an appetite for gambling.”
2024-10-09 · Forward Guidance · LIVE From Permissionless | Forward Guidance & 1000x Collab Stream · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“You would see maybe in the newspaper, but you couldn't go on TikTok and watch videos of people taking crazy vacations and feel to yourself, oh my God, I'm never going to make it. And so there's this idea of I need to get out of where I am to get to where I need to be that has never really existed before in such a large scale because it's so easy to see the other side. And that's what leads to the gambling. That's what leads to the investing in meme coins. That's a lead to the draft kings of the world taking off in such a big way. It's that FOMO, it's that culture. And so I do think that what you see here is you're going to see a lot more money spent on these types of activities. And these are harder and habits.”
2024-10-09 · Forward Guidance · LIVE From Permissionless | Forward Guidance & 1000x Collab Stream · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“That you bring up is going back to the original question what happens when there's a bifurcation in an economy of haves and have-nots? Is you get the world right now, it's so easy to see the other half. A hundred years ago, you couldn't see the other half that either. If you were of the have nots, you maybe didn't feel that way in a tremendous portion of your life because you wouldn't see them. You simply would not interact with them.”
2024-10-09 · Forward Guidance · LIVE From Permissionless | Forward Guidance & 1000x Collab Stream · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Buying crypto, and it is like you said, there is a bifurcation going on, there's inequality increasing under either a Trump administration or a Harris administration. Neither of those politicians seems to have proposed anything that would arrest the inequality trajectory that we're on. So I think... When we start to get this next phase of liftoff in crypto, which I'm convinced is happening, I think you're going to see some massive Gen Z and younger millennial pile in to try and ride that wave because we've all learned what happens when you get left behind.”
2024-10-09 · Forward Guidance · LIVE From Permissionless | Forward Guidance & 1000x Collab Stream · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I think it's a generational thing as well. Like, you know, I think your Trad Fi listeners and my sort of TradFi suit wearing former colleagues wouldn't be paying attention to memes like the one I'm about to describe, but there's a popular meme in crypto, which is, you know, you have a few years to hyper gamble your way into elite status. Otherwise, and I'm not going to use the four-letter word associated with this. Otherwise, you're basically a wage slave for the rest of your life. And I think that meme holds a lot of water for younger generations because having worked with young people, younger people now, I'm almost 40. I'm kind of the old man in the trading world. I'm a dinosaur. When I talk to younger people, they're not buying gold.”
2024-10-09 · Forward Guidance · LIVE From Permissionless | Forward Guidance & 1000x Collab Stream · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I think Bitcoin, I mean, I remember in 2020, I was long gold. I was long Bitcoin and gold was just killing it every day. And I was pretty frustrated. I was like, why isn't crypto going up? And it just had to wait a few months. Maybe that's what's happening again. But again, I do think if this is actually how transpires, the Fed's credibility is going to be at significant risk. So, you know, you want to own those type of assets, I think.”
2024-10-09 · Forward Guidance · LIVE From Permissionless | Forward Guidance & 1000x Collab Stream · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“If that happens, we start to see inflationary concerns. I'm pretty concerned about who's going to actually buy the long end bond during this next phase here because their magic trick of getting the recession scared to get that rotation in is effectively it just it just finished, you know, long, long months have been going up higher. So if these dynamics all happen at the same time, the Fed's credibility is going to be at risk. It could be pretty significant, and you know, tying that into some of the assets that we own. I think that's the reason why you're seeing gold get up.”
2024-10-09 · Forward Guidance · LIVE From Permissionless | Forward Guidance & 1000x Collab Stream · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Coming out of, we obviously saw TLT just absolutely crater during the rate hiking cycle, just due to basic bond math. But coming out of that, they're starting to be concerned that, okay, if the Fed's not doing QE, other foreign central banks are not, they're actually net sellers of debt. Who's going to buy the debt? Well, if we get a recession scare, that's going to bring in a flood of money to buy in the long end bond. So that's fine. At the same time, that Yellen is limiting the amount of issuance on the long end. So that's all well and good. We've been in this little Goldilocks environment. What happens if we keep cutting and we get an economy that starts to soar and we see nominal GDP just start to go vertical even though it's been very resilient?”
2024-10-09 · Forward Guidance · LIVE From Permissionless | Forward Guidance & 1000x Collab Stream · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Simple framework for cutting your rates into an economy that is growing and not in a recession. Going to accelerate things. And so there's been a lot of talk about how this question of who's going to buy the debt, who's going to buy the bonds”
2024-10-09 · Forward Guidance · LIVE From Permissionless | Forward Guidance & 1000x Collab Stream · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Does great for asset holders, but it does nothing, you know, at the same time during QE, they're buying MBS, right? They're buying up mortgage-backed securities. That's going to make housing more unaffordable. So these policies are not great for the lower income classes. So tying that into what we could see in the future here, I think the Fed's credibility is at risk from a few different vectors, the wealth disparity one, for sure. As we move into like a continued rate cutting cycle, even though parts of the rate cuts are more sensitive to either like smaller companies, smaller income classes, you know, car loads and that sort of thing. And also a lot of smaller companies are on floating rate debt versus fixed rate. Somebody like Apple can just have a stupidly low yield on their issuance versus like a smaller company. They have to go fix. So that's more sensitive to rate cut. So there's some validity to it, but overall, if we're cutting rates, again, going back to this.”
2024-10-09 · Forward Guidance · LIVE From Permissionless | Forward Guidance & 1000x Collab Stream · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Honestly, I think the biggest thing is the risk for the sanctity of the Fed in terms of its credibility. A lot of the Fed policy creates all disparity. QE is a policy that ensures that asset prices can rise without it trickling out into the broad economy. Because again, like I said earlier, QE is a swap of assets, really. Some people call it money printing probably, but in reality, mechanically, what happens is that the Fed goes out and buys something that is a lot more liquid, like bonds, and swaps it for central bank reserves that get caught up in the financial system that only banks can hold it on their balance sheet. So that's slowing down the velocity of money, removing duration from the market and lifting up asset prices. It's a pretty impressive mechanism.”
2024-10-09 · Forward Guidance · LIVE From Permissionless | Forward Guidance & 1000x Collab Stream · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Like, where do you put your money? Because of that. And I'll pose the question to you. Give my take, but I'm curious, you know. If we all agree, we're all sitting here and we say, This is the case, the economy is bifurcating into asset holders and non-asset holders. What does that mean?”
2024-10-09 · Forward Guidance · LIVE From Permissionless | Forward Guidance & 1000x Collab Stream · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“100%. And one thing that I know there are a bunch of smart. Up something Jonas said and Thinking to themselves You get dividends from the SP. So obviously you can't compare that against gold. And I'm here to tell you go look at the charts if you reinvest your dividends. It's still flat since 2000.”
2024-10-09 · Forward Guidance · LIVE From Permissionless | Forward Guidance & 1000x Collab Stream · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Happen. I mean, it's this K shaped economy thing. It is true. Like, I don't want to belittle it. There's people in the lower income classes that are in a version of a recession, and a lot of it has to do with affordability. We haven't seen a classic. Inflationary recession, whatever you want to call it, a cost of living crisis. We haven't seen one of these in a long time, so it's a bit confusing. We're used to deflationary credits shocks that sort of unwind the financial markets. We're sort of seeing the opposite. Asset holders are doing really well. Asset markets are doing great, but people in the lower income classes are getting squeezed. The problem is that they're not the asset holders as much, so we don't see it as much.”
2024-10-09 · Forward Guidance · LIVE From Permissionless | Forward Guidance & 1000x Collab Stream · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I live in London, and when I moved to London 10 years ago, London felt like the most expensive place I'd ever visited. Now it feels literally half the price of living in the United States. So I'm not like daily life. I'm not talking about central London real estate or anything. It's crazy how”
2024-10-09 · Forward Guidance · LIVE From Permissionless | Forward Guidance & 1000x Collab Stream · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Specifically those related to what inflation has done to everybody's balance sheet. Like even just out there, we were speaking to the baristo and we were getting coffees here. We had sticker shock. Utah is supposed to be cheap.”
2024-10-09 · Forward Guidance · LIVE From Permissionless | Forward Guidance & 1000x Collab Stream · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“It's close to the lows of this millennium. Only during COVID did it go lower. Okay, you could say, well, Jonah Gold has ripped. So that's sort of all you're saying is that gold is up a lot. But the dollar's down a lot. And if you look at what equities are doing versus something that like a precious metal that's technically a store of value, it tells you that the stock market is not in a bull market, that it's actually in a bear market. And I think it's important to make that distinction because it basically tells you that all of this sort of froth and asset inflation that has everybody all giddy and looking at larger and larger numbers in their brokerage accounts is really a mirage. And I think that there's some pretty sinister underlying factors in the economy that need to be addressed.”
2024-10-09 · Forward Guidance · LIVE From Permissionless | Forward Guidance & 1000x Collab Stream · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I think we might, you know, I know there are some people out there who say we are in a shadow recession right now because of those revisions that you cite. I'm not quite in that camp, but I think we're in a shadow bear market. And I think that's why it's such a good time to dip by. Now, how could that be with stocks and Bitcoin at or near all-time highs? Well, one thing I did recently was I went and denominated the S&P 500 chart in gold.”
2024-10-09 · Forward Guidance · LIVE From Permissionless | Forward Guidance & 1000x Collab Stream · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“In some way, I mean, he's definitely not a fan of crypto. I'll say that much. But he's a smart, intelligent person. And that's what matters is when he, even though I disagree with it, I do listen to it. And to your point, there is downside revisions. You know, we had negative 800K,000 downside revisions to the jobs that over the last year. But look, it's fairly linear the downside revisions because it has to do with just the confidence interval of how they calculate it and then how that actually comes into existence through basically tax data. So it's not as noisy as you think. It's not convex. It's quite linear. So there's some smart folks out there who have just basically baked the revision into the current data. So even though we got a gangbaster jaws report last week, just take a 50% haircut on that.”
2024-10-09 · Forward Guidance · LIVE From Permissionless | Forward Guidance & 1000x Collab Stream · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I think the theme right now they're getting on is just yeah the amount of uncertainty and confusion like there's confusion on election outcomes on policy decisions there's a lot of confusion in the economic data there's a lot of very smart people that you know think we're about to go into a recession and I want to respect that even though I don't think we're going to be in a recession There's some guys out there. There's, you know, Mike Green, who's a very intelligent person, is pretty strongly in the recession camp. And I'll just quickly lay out his perspective and what some of the more articulate recession views are is a lot of it comes down to just bad economic data coming out of COVID and how that gets reflected in revisions. You know, there's a lot of talk about non-farm payroll revisions. We've seen some major downside revisions. So, you know, the simplified and distill the thesis is that things are a lot worse than they appear in the data. I agree with that.”
2024-10-09 · Forward Guidance · LIVE From Permissionless | Forward Guidance & 1000x Collab Stream · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And so there's kind of no way to make a bet on it. It's possible that it's a lot better than it was under Biden. It's possible that it's the same. I actually think it's kind of hard pressed for it to be worse because I think people have woken up to the idea that crypto is actually important and it does drive votes But obviously, Trump would be very good.”
2024-10-09 · Forward Guidance · LIVE From Permissionless | Forward Guidance & 1000x Collab Stream · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“That's a shame. I was told that I was kind of excited You know, far that as a catastrophic event, it turns out that they uncovered Satoshi and the wallets start to move. Know they start to offload BTC”
2024-10-09 · Forward Guidance · LIVE From Permissionless | Forward Guidance & 1000x Collab Stream · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Not totally, but basically it was like there's a couple foreign posts from this guy where he looked like Satoshi had changed into a different Bitcoin form account that was this guy and it looked like he was concealing his sentence on it. This paired with a few other things. I mean, he's a renowned guy. There has been thoughts. I'm not too well versed on the whole who is Satoshi, you know, theses, but...”
2024-10-09 · Forward Guidance · LIVE From Permissionless | Forward Guidance & 1000x Collab Stream · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“When you talk about the concept of crypto companies Anything outside of Bitcoin. But with Bitcoin, that regulatory uncertainty is actually good because what it does is if you're allocating in crypto that by definition makes your allocation to Bitcoin larger. So that's actually”
2024-10-09 · Forward Guidance · LIVE From Permissionless | Forward Guidance & 1000x Collab Stream · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Good for the companies, they're not good for cash producing companies, they're not necessarily good for. Something like Bitcoin until you get to the point of excess, until you get to a point of complete euphoria. I have a question for you, Avi. Could it be that the sort of parachute that Bitcoin that's attached to Bitcoin, that's slowing it down is regulatory policy uncertainty? I think that one thing that crypto needs to rally is adoption. And a lot of companies from my former employers to name your traditional finance institution who's interested in either tokenizing assets or settling things on Ethereum, they're kind of in a holding pattern until they can get some regulatory clarity. I agree. I agree with.”
2024-10-09 · Forward Guidance · LIVE From Permissionless | Forward Guidance & 1000x Collab Stream · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Governments basically backstop and underwrite all risk that goes out in the economy at any time there's a recession it's going to be V-shaped because they're just gonna sweep all that risk onto their balance sheet. So that's my framework. Do you agree with that? Do you disagree with it? What's your interest rate of mine tell you about that perspective?”
2024-10-09 · Forward Guidance · LIVE From Permissionless | Forward Guidance & 1000x Collab Stream · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“My framework right now is own risk assets, stocks, Bitcoin, especially Bitcoin, until one of two things happens. Number one, Bitcoin gets overvalued by your sort of, let's call it hyper white hot bull market metric, MVRVZ going above five or six. That's probably when you take profit. But even if that doesn't happen, I think the other time when you sell Bitcoin is if you see a redistributionary political shift like Bernie Sanders or an AOC, you know, have a legitimate shot at the presidency or if that movement takes charge in governments across the world, especially the United States, then you're probably supposed to sell. Otherwise, if that doesn't happen, then we're probably still in the kind of 2008 post-2008 regime of”
2024-10-09 · Forward Guidance · LIVE From Permissionless | Forward Guidance & 1000x Collab Stream · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I'm confused. I'm glad you broke it down there because to me, the interest rate picture is the part of the macro asset kind of puzzle that I understand the least. And like Avi, I just think, you know, rates high, Bitcoin bad, rates low, Bitcoin good. But I think it's more nuanced than that. I think for me, the framework, I want to get your take on this.”
2024-10-09 · Forward Guidance · LIVE From Permissionless | Forward Guidance & 1000x Collab Stream · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Well, maybe what we could do here is do a little host swap and open up to you guys just to hear a bit about what you guys wanted to talk a bit about. I know you had a couple questions for me. Happy to talk about anything macro. But yo, what's on your guys' mind and what are you wondering about?”
2024-10-09 · Forward Guidance · LIVE From Permissionless | Forward Guidance & 1000x Collab Stream · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Want to ask you a little bit, you know, Johnny, you were actually on the forward guidance podcast a couple months ago when Jack interviewed you and you laid out your long-term fundamental views on Bitcoin and the crypto space, especially how it relates to macro in terms of a reserve collateral. But I want to ask you both just to get your one page reviews on, you know, for our audience on the four guidance side of things that maybe are crypto skeptics and mostly focus in on macro. Why do you guys care about crypto being both guys who have also been on the TradFi side of things? Maybe starting with you, Jonah.”
2024-10-09 · Forward Guidance · LIVE From Permissionless | Forward Guidance & 1000x Collab Stream · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT