YouSaid · the spoken record

Fin Moorhouse

lines on the record: 147
first: 2022-07-27
most recent: 2022-07-27
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

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“Which I made very difficult for you, I guess cutting off answers what is the interesting thing that's been said and the elaboration or like the caveats on the meat of the answer are often just like way less worth hearing. I think trying to ask questions which a person has no hope of knowing the answer to even though it'd be great if they knew the answer to like so what should we do about this policy is pretty bad move Also If you speak to people who are like familiar with asking questions about like their book for instance in some sense you need to like flush out the kind of pre-prepared like spiel that they have in their heads”
2022-07-27 · Dwarkesh Podcast · Fin Moorhouse - Longtermism, Space, & Entrepreneurship · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, exactly. Yeah, tell us about yourself. This is what I love conversations with Tyler. It's one of the many reasons I love it. He always like launch with, you know, like the first question will be like about some footnote in this person's like undergrad dissertation that just sets the tone so well. Also, I think cutting.”
2022-07-27 · Dwarkesh Podcast · Fin Moorhouse - Longtermism, Space, & Entrepreneurship · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I've observed that it's a really hard skill. I still feel like kind of Still feel like it's really difficult. I also at least like to think that we've got a bit better. First thing I thought there was this example you gave of like, what was it like growing up in the Midwest? We always ask those kinds of questions. So, you know, like, how did you get into behavioral economics? And why do you think it was so important? These are just like guaranteed to be kind of uninspiring answers. So specificity seems like a really good.”
2022-07-27 · Dwarkesh Podcast · Fin Moorhouse - Longtermism, Space, & Entrepreneurship · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Something I'm curious to ask you, like, I know, I want to know what you feel like you've learned from doing podcasting. So I don't know. Maybe one question here is like, yeah, what's some kind of... Underappreciated difficulty of trying to ask good questions. I mean, obviously, currently asking excellent questions. So what have you learned?”
2022-07-27 · Dwarkesh Podcast · Fin Moorhouse - Longtermism, Space, & Entrepreneurship · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I mentioned earlier, or maybe it's a different thing, which is you can take perfect speech, like recordings, and then you can insert ums and az and like make it worse. And then you can do a comprehension test where people listen to the different versions and kind of remember it. And they do better with the versions which are like less perfect.”
2022-07-27 · Dwarkesh Podcast · Fin Moorhouse - Longtermism, Space, & Entrepreneurship · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So, if you like overlay what someone says with a bit of noise, or you turn on the volume, very often people have better comprehension of it because the thing you just said, which is like you're paying more attention. Also, I think maybe I was misremembering the...”
2022-07-27 · Dwarkesh Podcast · Fin Moorhouse - Longtermism, Space, & Entrepreneurship · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“But that pattern of speech, like you point out, is in fact easier to. Digest, or at least it requires less kind of stamina or effort.”
2022-07-27 · Dwarkesh Podcast · Fin Moorhouse - Longtermism, Space, & Entrepreneurship · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, a few things this makes me think of one is there's some experiment where I guess you can just do it yourself when if you force people not to use disfluences like ums and ahs those people just get like much worse at reading words In some sense like disfluencies like help us I guess I'm using the word like right now communicate thoughts for some reason and then if you take I guess I can speak for myself. And then you word for word transcribe what you were saying when I say you, I mean me. It's like hot garbage. It's like I've just learned how to talk.”
2022-07-27 · Dwarkesh Podcast · Fin Moorhouse - Longtermism, Space, & Entrepreneurship · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Is that the best kind of Poncy scheme, though? Podcasts as a form of media are just like incredibly special. There's something about just the incentives between guest and host, just like aligned so much better than like, I know, if this was like some journalistic interview, it'd be like way kind of uncomfortable. There's something about the fact that it's still kind of hard to search transcripts. So there's less of a worry about like forming all your words in the right way. So it's just like more relaxed.”
2022-07-27 · Dwarkesh Podcast · Fin Moorhouse - Longtermism, Space, & Entrepreneurship · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“If someone who is like well known is gracious enough to say yes despite not really knowing what you're about. Then you do an interview, and then like it's a pretty good interview. When you're emailing the next person, you don't have to sell yourself. You can just be like, hey, I spoke to this other impressive person.”
2022-07-27 · Dwarkesh Podcast · Fin Moorhouse - Longtermism, Space, & Entrepreneurship · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Email them saying we're doing a podcast and wanted to interview them. That could be a pretty good excuse to talk to them. So let's see how easy it is to do this. Turns out startup costs on doing a podcast are like pretty low if you want to do like a scrappy version of it, right? Did that it turns out that academics especially but just like tons of people really love being asked to talk about the things they think about all day, right? It's just like a complete win-win where you're like, you're trying to boost the ideas of someone or some actual person who you think deserves more airtime that person gets to like talk about their work and you know spread their ideas. So it's like there's like no downsides to doing this other than the time. Also I should say the kind of yes rates on our emails was like considerably higher than we thought we were like two random undergrads with microphones. But this is a really nice like kind of snowball effect where”
2022-07-27 · Dwarkesh Podcast · Fin Moorhouse - Longtermism, Space, & Entrepreneurship · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So, story is Luca, who's a close friend of mine who I do this podcast with. We're both at university together, and we were like both podcast nerds. And I think I remember we were in our last year, and we had this conversation like... We're like surrounded by all these people who just seem like incredibly interesting, like all these, you know, like academics who'd really love to talk about or talk to. And if we just”
2022-07-27 · Dwarkesh Podcast · Fin Moorhouse - Longtermism, Space, & Entrepreneurship · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I think you could just imagine there being no decision maker, right? So, like the thing could be let's agree to have some time to reflect on what is best. And we might come to some... At the end, one version of this is just let things happen, there's no final decision when someone that time between doing the thing and thinking about it, just like extending that time for a bit seems good.”
2022-07-27 · Dwarkesh Podcast · Fin Moorhouse - Longtermism, Space, & Entrepreneurship · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Know there's like a very weak analogy to progress in other fields where we don't make progress in mathematics or science by taking enormous votes on what's true. But we can by just giving people who are interested in making progress the space and time to do that. And then at the end, it's often pretty obvious what turns out. That's like very begging the question because it's like way more obvious what's right and wrong if you're like doing maths compared to doing this kind of thing.”
2022-07-27 · Dwarkesh Podcast · Fin Moorhouse - Longtermism, Space, & Entrepreneurship · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, yeah, yeah. I think maybe some of what's going on here is I'd want to resist the, and it's my fault for, I think, like suggesting this framing, that it's like you just, you spend a bunch of time thinking and like having this conversation, and then you take this like international vote on what we should do. And I think maybe another framing is something like, let's just give the time for the people who want to be involved in this to make the progress that could be possible on thinking about these things and then just like see where we end up.”
2022-07-27 · Dwarkesh Podcast · Fin Moorhouse - Longtermism, Space, & Entrepreneurship · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“If I want to talk about maybe one last kind of trailing thought on what you said is, I think Popper has this thought and also David Deutsch did a really good job at kind of explaining it about one underrated value of democracy, not just in some sense having this function to combine people's views into some kind of optimal path which is like some mishmash of what everyone thinks. It's also like having the ability for people who are being governed to just like cancel this current experiment in governance and try again. So it's something, you know, it's like, we'll give you freedom to, you know, implement this kind of governance plan that seems really exciting. And then we're just going to like pull the brakes when it goes wrong. And that kind of that option to start again in general just feels like really important as some kind of tool.”
2022-07-27 · Dwarkesh Podcast · Fin Moorhouse - Longtermism, Space, & Entrepreneurship · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Maybe like a disagreement here is a disagreement about how much scope there is to just get better at thinking about these things. I mean, one reason I can give, I guess I kind of mentioned this earlier, is this project here of thinking about what's best to do, maybe kind of thinking better about ethics, is not the thing, it's like maybe more relevant to think that this is like on the order of kind of 30 years old rather than on the order of 2,000 years old You might call it like secular ethics Parfit writes about this right he's like talks about this kind of there are at least reasons for hope. We haven't ruled out that we can make not make a lot of progress because the thing we were doing before like we were trying to think systematically about what's best to do was just very unlike the thing that we should be interested in I'm sorry that was like a huge ramble but hopefully there's something there”
2022-07-27 · Dwarkesh Podcast · Fin Moorhouse - Longtermism, Space, & Entrepreneurship · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Can we actually make progress in thinking better about what's best to do in the same way that we can make progress in science separately from the fact that like People's views about science are influenced.”
2022-07-27 · Dwarkesh Podcast · Fin Moorhouse - Longtermism, Space, & Entrepreneurship · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“The space of what we could possibly do, different views which look kind of similar right now, or at least come to similar conclusions. They just like go all over the shop. And so that is not responding to your point, but I think it's maybe worth saying this is a reason for expecting reflecting on what the right view is to be quite important. I guess that leads into a second thought, which is something like there's two things going on. One is a thing you mentioned, which is there are basically just a bunch of political dynamics where you can just reason about where you should expect values to head for political reasons, in some senses now better than the default. And what is that default?”
2022-07-27 · Dwarkesh Podcast · Fin Moorhouse - Longtermism, Space, & Entrepreneurship · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I guess I'll try saying some things and maybe it will respond to that. Kind of two things are going through my head. One is something like you should expect these questions about like, what should we do when we have the capacity to do like a far larger range of things than we currently have the capacity to do? That question is going to hinge much more importantly on theories people have and like worldviews and very kind of particular details much more than it does now and I'm going to do a bad job at trying to articulate this but there's some kind of analogy here where if you're like fitting a curve to some points you can like overfit it and in fact you can overfit it in various ways and they all look pretty similar but then if you like extend the axes so you like see what happens to the curves like beyond the points those different ways of fitting it can like go all over the place and so like there's some analogy here where when you kind of expand the like”
2022-07-27 · Dwarkesh Podcast · Fin Moorhouse - Longtermism, Space, & Entrepreneurship · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I don't know. I think that turned out pretty well, but ALEC private version of that would have happened in some sense a lot more effectively. I guess I'm not like the Elon example is kind of a good one because it's not obvious why that's like super worrying. The thing I have in mind in the long reflection example is maybe like a bit more kind of wild, but it's really hard to make it concrete. So yeah, somewhat floundering.”
2022-07-27 · Dwarkesh Podcast · Fin Moorhouse - Longtermism, Space, & Entrepreneurship · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, that's a good question. And I mean, one obvious point is not always, right? Like, there are certainly cases where the consensus view is just like somewhat worse. I think you limit the downside with a consensus view, right? Because you give people space to express why they just don't think there's like one idea is bad. I don't know if this answers your question, but like it's a really good one. You can imagine they're kind of the UN-led thing is going to be like way slower. It's going to probably be way more expensive. The International Space Station is a good example where...”
2022-07-27 · Dwarkesh Podcast · Fin Moorhouse - Longtermism, Space, & Entrepreneurship · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Reach some kind of COSIN solution, and we'd like to go and do our own things. There's a bunch of projects which kind of go off at once. I don't know, that feels like really great to me compared to whoever gets there first determining how things turn out. But yeah, I mean, it's hard to talk about stuff, right? Because it's like somewhat speculative, but I think it's just like a useful North Star or something to try pointing towards.”
2022-07-27 · Dwarkesh Podcast · Fin Moorhouse - Longtermism, Space, & Entrepreneurship · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Enjoy the parts where. So one thought here is if you're worried about the future, like the course of the future being determined by some single actor, I mean, that worries is just symmetrical with the worry of letting whoever wins some race first go and do the thing, the like project where they. More or less kind of determine what happens to the rest of humanity. So the option where you kind of deliberately wait and let people have some global conversation. I don't know, it seems like that. Less worrying even if the worry is still there. I should also say I can imagine the outcome is not unanimity. In fact, it'd be like pretty wild if it was, right? But you want the outcome to be some kind of like. Stable friendly disagreement where now we can kind of like”
2022-07-27 · Dwarkesh Podcast · Fin Moorhouse - Longtermism, Space, & Entrepreneurship · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, yeah, yeah. I should say that, like, I am, in fact, pretty uncertain. I just kind of, I know it's more enjoyable to give this thing its hearing.”
2022-07-27 · Dwarkesh Podcast · Fin Moorhouse - Longtermism, Space, & Entrepreneurship · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, yeah. Okay. I think I kind of just agree with a lot of what you said. So I think the best framing of this is the version when you're preventing something which most people can agree is negative, which is to say some actor unilaterally deciding to do this huge irreversible or set out on this. Something you said was that the outcome is going to reflect the values of whoever is in charge.”
2022-07-27 · Dwarkesh Podcast · Fin Moorhouse - Longtermism, Space, & Entrepreneurship · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Aiming for a bit more reflection rather than less that's like the conservative option. That's like doing what we've already been doing just a bit longer rather than some like radical option. So I agree. It's like pretty hard to imagine some kind of super long period where everyone's like perfectly agreed on doing this. But yeah, I think framing it as like a directional ideal seems pretty worthwhile. And I guess I don't know maybe I'm kind of naively hopeful about the possibility of coordinating better around things like that.”
2022-07-27 · Dwarkesh Podcast · Fin Moorhouse - Longtermism, Space, & Entrepreneurship · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“From escaping the reflection. Okay, so there's a continuum here, and I basically agree that some kind of Panopticon-like thing not only is impossible, but actually sounds pretty bad, but something where you're just like pushing in the direction of being more coordinated on the international level about things that matter seems desirable and possible. And in particular, like preventing really bad things rather than try to get people to all do the same thing. So the biological weapons convention strikes me as an example, which is imperfect and underfunded, but nonetheless kind of directionally good. And maybe an extra point here is that there's like a sense in which the long reflection option, or I guess the better framing is like...”
2022-07-27 · Dwarkesh Podcast · Fin Moorhouse - Longtermism, Space, & Entrepreneurship · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Imagining that the world is like perfectly coordinated, would it be a good idea to spend some time, maybe a long period of time, kind of deliberately holding back from embarking on these huge irreversible projects which maybe involve leaving Earth in kind of certain scenarios or other ways just like doing things which are hard to undo? Should we spend some time thinking before then? Yeah, sounds good. And then I guess the very obvious response is, okay, that's a pretty huge assumption that we can just like coordinate around that. And I think the answer is, yep, it is, but as a kind of directional ideal, should we push towards or away from the idea of like taking our time, holding our horses, getting people together who haven't really been part of this conversation and hearing them? Yeah, definitely seems worthwhile.”
2022-07-27 · Dwarkesh Podcast · Fin Moorhouse - Longtermism, Space, & Entrepreneurship · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And okay, why should we think this? I think one thought here is it's very plausible, I guess this kind of links to what we were talking about earlier, that the way we think about, you know, like. Really positive features, like one of the best features, it's just really kind of incomplete. Almost certainly, we're just getting a bunch of things wrong by this kind of pessimistic induction on the past. Like a bunch of smart people thought really reprehensible things like 100 years ago. So we're getting things wrong. And then it's like second thought is, I don't know, seems possible to actually make progress here in thinking about what's good. There's this kind of interesting point that most like work in, I guess you might call it like moral philosophy has focused on the negatives. So, you know, avoiding doing things wrong, fixing harms, avoiding bad outcomes. But this idea of studying the positive, studying what we should do, if we can kind of do many different things, this is just super, super early. And so we should expect to be able to make a ton of progress. And so, hey, again.”
2022-07-27 · Dwarkesh Podcast · Fin Moorhouse - Longtermism, Space, & Entrepreneurship · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“We might notice that Scope for what we could achieve is really extraordinarily large, like maybe kind of larger than most people kind of typically entertain. We could just do a ton of really exceptional things, but also this is kind of a feature that maybe in the future and not especially long-term future, we might more or less for the first time be able to embark on these really kind of ambitious projects that are in some important sense really hard to reverse. And that might make you think, okay, at some point it'd be great to achieve that potential that we have and just like for instance a kind of lower band on this is lifting everyone out of poverty who remains in poverty and then like going even further just making everyone even wealthier able to do more things that they want to do making more scientific discoveries whatever so we want to do that but maybe something should come in between these two things which is like figuring out what is actually good”
2022-07-27 · Dwarkesh Podcast · Fin Moorhouse - Longtermism, Space, & Entrepreneurship · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So, if you were to zoom out really far over time Consider our place now, like in history, and you could ask this question suppose in some sense, humanity just became perfectly coordinated. What's the plan? What kind of in general should we be prioritizing? In what stages? And you might say something like this. Looks like this moment in history, which is to say maybe this century or so, just looks kind of wildly and like unsustainably dangerous. So many things are happening at once. It's really hard to know how things are going to pan out, but it's like possible to imagine things panning out really badly and badly enough to just like more or less end history. Okay, so before we can worry about some kind of longer-term considerations. But then, okay, suppose that you succeed in that, and we're in a significantly safer kind of time. What”
2022-07-27 · Dwarkesh Podcast · Fin Moorhouse - Longtermism, Space, & Entrepreneurship · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I'm so glad you asked. Yeah, I want to say no. I think in some sense I've come around with it as an idea. But yeah, okay, maybe it's worth like.”
2022-07-27 · Dwarkesh Podcast · Fin Moorhouse - Longtermism, Space, & Entrepreneurship · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I think my guess is that on net these efforts are still just like overwhelmingly positive. But yeah, I think it's pretty interesting that people have the experience you describe as well. Yeah, and interesting to think about ways to kind of like get around that.”
2022-07-27 · Dwarkesh Podcast · Fin Moorhouse - Longtermism, Space, & Entrepreneurship · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“More peripheral, then you know one, yeah, like this could push towards wanting to have just a specific group for people who are just like, you know, this ASR seems cool, other stuff, not my like cup of tea. So yeah, I mean, in the future is like things get scaled up, as well as kind of scaling out, I think also maybe having this differentiation and kind of diversification of like different groups. I mean, seems pretty good, but just like more of everything also seems good.”
2022-07-27 · Dwarkesh Podcast · Fin Moorhouse - Longtermism, Space, & Entrepreneurship · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, interesting. I feel like I really don't want to underwrite the job that Community Builders are doing. I think, in fact, it's turned out to have been like, and still is just incredibly valuable, especially just looking at the numbers of like what you can achieve as a group organizer at your university, like maybe you could just change the course of more than one person's career over the course of a year of your time. That's pretty incredible. But yeah, I guess part of what's going on is that the difference between going to your like local group or like engaging with stuff online is that you get to kind of choose the stuff you engage with. And like maybe one upshot here is that they're like kind of set of ideas that might get associated with EA. It's like very big and you don't need to buy into all of it or just like be passionate about all of it. If this kind of AI stuff just like really seems interesting, but maybe other stuff is just.”
2022-07-27 · Dwarkesh Podcast · Fin Moorhouse - Longtermism, Space, & Entrepreneurship · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“But rather just like being quite honest about what this thing is about. So you just attract the people who really sort it out because that's just quite a good feature. I think another thing that, again, this is not a very interesting point to make, but something I've really realized the value of is having physical hubs. And so there's this model of running like fellowships, for instance, where you just like find really promising people. And then there's just so much to be said for like putting those people in the same place and, you know, surrounding them with maybe people who are a bit more senior and just kind of like letting this natural process happen where people just get really excited that there is this like community of people working on stuff that previously you've just been kind of reading about in your bedroom on like some blogs that like as a source of motivation i know it's like less tangible than other things but yeah just like so so powerful and like probably the i don't know one of the reasons i'm like”
2022-07-27 · Dwarkesh Podcast · Fin Moorhouse - Longtermism, Space, & Entrepreneurship · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“A very wide net. There's just kind of very legibly prestigious. And then filtering through thousands of applications. Or in some sense, like putting out the bat signal that in the first instance, just like attracts the really promising people and maybe actually drives away people who will be a better fit for something else. So like an example is if you were to hypothetically write a quite a wonky economics blog like every day for however many years and then run some fellowship program you're just like automatically selecting for people who read that book and that's like a pretty good kind of starting population to begin with. So I really like that kind of thought of just like not needing to be like incredibly loud and like prestigious sounding.”
2022-07-27 · Dwarkesh Podcast · Fin Moorhouse - Longtermism, Space, & Entrepreneurship · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, I mean, it's a very good question. And I think what you point out there is right, Nick Whittaker has this blog post to something like the, it's called The Lamplight Model of Talent Curation. He draws this distinction between casting”
2022-07-27 · Dwarkesh Podcast · Fin Moorhouse - Longtermism, Space, & Entrepreneurship · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And yeah, there's something really powerful about this fact that this business of finding really smart driven people and connecting them with opportunities to do the things they really want to do, this is really kind of still inefficient. And there are just still so many people out there who aren't kind of getting those opportunities. I actually don't know if I have much more insight to add there other than this is just a big deal. And it's like There's a sense of which it is an important consideration for this like project of trying to do the most good like you really want to find people who can like put these ideas in practice and I think there's a special premium on that kind of person now given that there's like a lot of philanthropic kind of funding ready to like be deployed there's also a sense in which this is just like in some sense like a cause in its own right it's kind of analogous to open borders in that sense at least in my mind hadn't really like appreciated”
2022-07-27 · Dwarkesh Podcast · Fin Moorhouse - Longtermism, Space, & Entrepreneurship · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“All right. Yeah, it's a great question. And yeah, to be clear, I just won the lottery on things going right to kind of be lucky enough to do what I'm doing now. So, yeah, in some sense, the question is, how do you print more winning lottery tickets? And indeed, find those people who really deserve them, but like currently not being identified. A lot of this comes from, I read that book, Talent, Tyler Cohen and Daniel Gross recently.”
2022-07-27 · Dwarkesh Podcast · Fin Moorhouse - Longtermism, Space, & Entrepreneurship · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, so I don't really know if I have a good answer. My best guess is that things just shake out to kind of where they started, as obviously started off in this kind of relatively risk neutral place, I suspect that if many wells is true, this might have make it much harder to hold on to kind of intuitive views about personal identity for the reason that there isn't this one person who you're like continuous with throughout time and no other people, which is how people tend to think about what it is to be a person. And then there's this kind of like vague thing, which is occasionally remember every other month or so that maybe many worlds is true. And it's kind of like blows my mind that I don't know what to do about it. And I just go on with my day. That's about where I am.”
2022-07-27 · Dwarkesh Podcast · Fin Moorhouse - Longtermism, Space, & Entrepreneurship · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Comes from him, which is just like really cool, maybe just to kind of round this off if you're like a 100 over 100 and wanna on examples like this and you think there's any chance that like the universe is infinite in size then you should think that the chance you're in a universe that is infinite in extent is just like one or close to one if that makes sense”
2022-07-27 · Dwarkesh Podcast · Fin Moorhouse - Longtermism, Space, & Entrepreneurship · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yes, amazing. He's really going to talk to you about it. I don't want to, okay, I don't want to scoop him, but one thought that”
2022-07-27 · Dwarkesh Podcast · Fin Moorhouse - Longtermism, Space, & Entrepreneurship · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I should say, actually, I should plug someone who does know what they're talking about on this, which is Joe Carl Smith, who has like a series of really excellent blog posts.”
2022-07-27 · Dwarkesh Podcast · Fin Moorhouse - Longtermism, Space, & Entrepreneurship · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, you might think of it like this. How shall I reason about where I am? Well, maybe it's something like this. I'm just a random observer, right? Of all the possible observers that could have come out of this. And there are 101 possible observers. And you can just imagine that I've been randomly drawn. And if I'm randomly drawn from all the possible observers, then it's overwhelmingly likely that I'm in the big world.”
2022-07-27 · Dwarkesh Podcast · Fin Moorhouse - Longtermism, Space, & Entrepreneurship · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And it feels like there's a kind of really intuitive reasons for both 50% and one third. Here's a related question, which is maybe a bit simpler, at least in my head. I flip a coin. If it comes up heads, I just make a world with one observer in it. And if it comes up tails, I make a world with 100 observers in it. Maybe it could be like running simulations with 100 people. You wake up in one of these worlds, you don't know how many other people are there in the world. You just know that someone has flipped a coin and decided to make a world with either one or 100 people in it. What is the chance that you're in the world with 100 people? And like there's a reason for thinking it's half and there's a reason for thinking that it's like, I don't know, 100 over 101. Does that make sense?”
2022-07-27 · Dwarkesh Podcast · Fin Moorhouse - Longtermism, Space, & Entrepreneurship · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It's only a vaguely remembered example, but let's try it. So, in your original sleeping beauty problem, you go to sleep. Okay, and then I flip a coin, or whoever someone flips a coin. It comes up tails, they wake you up once. If it comes up heads, they wake you up once, and then you go back to sleep and your memory is wiped, and then you're woken up again, as if you're being woken up in the other world. And, okay, so you go to sleep, you wake up, and you ask, what is the chance that the coin came up heads up tails?”
2022-07-27 · Dwarkesh Podcast · Fin Moorhouse - Longtermism, Space, & Entrepreneurship · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Or DM me, or something. I'm very interested. So, yeah, you mentioned like it is obviously there is a measure over worlds and this like lets you talk about things being sensible again. Also maybe one minor thing to comment on is talking about probabilities is kind of hard because on many worlds just everything happens that can happen and so it's like difficult to get the language exactly right. But anyway, so I totally get the point and then the question of how it maps on to simulation type thoughts are, I don't know, like maybe a thought which kind of connects to this do you know like sleeping beauty type problems?”
2022-07-27 · Dwarkesh Podcast · Fin Moorhouse - Longtermism, Space, & Entrepreneurship · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, okay, there's a lot, I get a lot going on. I feel like there are people who actually know what they're talking about here, just tearing their hair out. Like, you might see this obvious thing. So you mentioned.”
2022-07-27 · Dwarkesh Podcast · Fin Moorhouse - Longtermism, Space, & Entrepreneurship · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source