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Frans Timmermans

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2025-02-24
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2025-02-24
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  1. If you are a European and you have the opportunity to travel, travel to Asia, travel to Africa, you'll find optimism in quantities that you do not suspect exist. The global South is going through a transformation, is finding its destiny, it's working. You have millions and millions of young people with better education. You have growth in income. You have growth in optimism in so many parts of the world. And they all see Europe as an example of where they would like to be as a society. We are still to many, many people in the global south an example that deserves to be followed. We have lost a lot of credibility because of our dual standards. We've lost a lot of credibility because of our stance on the Middle East. We've lost a lot of credibility by asking their support against Putin without responding when they ask.

    2025-02-24 · The Rest Is Politics: Leading · 122. How Europe can survive Trump (Frans Timmermans) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  2. Bread and butter issues. And at the time when also British security is threatened by what Putin and Trump are doing, are you really going to talk about cultural wars? Are you not going to talk about how the Conservative Party is going to help protect the UK, strengthen the UK, look for European allies to make sure that we help Ukraine overcome this incredible crisis? You want to talk about culture wars and what does that do to your credibility as one of the most important European parties historically? You know, I'm a labor politician, but I do recognize the huge importance of the Conservative Party in the history of the United Kingdom. It's the Conservative Party in an alliance with Labour that got us out of the Second World War victoriously. We still have quite a lot of British soldiers in our Dutch soil who fought for our freedom. Keep that in mind.

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  3. I'm still proud of the fact that Farage called me once the most dangerous man in Europe. What I don't understand, what I don't really don't understand with my experience in the Netherlands is why the leader of the Conservative Party keeps banging on about these cultural wars that are only helping Farage and not helping ordinary conservative voters and people who just want to make sure they can pay their rent, they can have a decent job, they can pay the bills, they can look forward to a conservative party that has their concerns as their prime focus. I just don't get it. If you want to beat Farage, go and see what the people are worried about. And they're not worried about these cultural wars. You can tie them to these cultural wars. In my experience, care about

    2025-02-24 · The Rest Is Politics: Leading · 122. How Europe can survive Trump (Frans Timmermans) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  4. Comes and the difficulty they have to pay the bills, etc., he said he would not form a coalition with a radical right and he won the election. And the radical right lost a support in the last couple of days before the election. Compare what happened in the Netherlands to what happened in Belgium, which is in many ways a comparable country and see what happened in Germany. The out of day is losing slightly losing, not in the East sadly, but in the West is losing support because math has been clear about this, also because they have quite a hopeless leader of the party with Ms. Weidel, who actually doesn't even live in Germany, and who's profiting from them not growing anymore in the polls. It's Dlinka, strange enough, who are now at 9% of the polls. But the positive news is a grand coalition, whether it's between Metz and Scholz or Merz and Habeck, is now a real possibility.

    2025-02-24 · The Rest Is Politics: Leading · 122. How Europe can survive Trump (Frans Timmermans) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  5. The centre-right said we will not exclude governing with him. And by the way, his agenda is our agenda. That made him a potential leader of the country. And that drew a lot of people towards his party. Now, interesting election, you might want to follow is the Belgian election that came afterwards. The now new prime minister of Belgium is a man who is very pro-Dutch. He follows the carve up Belgium, as you know, which is funny. He just swore allegiance to the king, which is ironic, let's put it this way. But anyway, he is a man who saw the Dutch election. He was on the same agenda of migration. He saw that the radical right Flemish party was bigger in the polls than his party was because of this agenda. You saw what happened in the Netherlands. He immediately changed tracks. He stopped talking about migration altogether. He only talked about people's income.

    2025-02-24 · The Rest Is Politics: Leading · 122. How Europe can survive Trump (Frans Timmermans) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  6. The first thing I always say, and I keep saying it, take them seriously, but also take them literally. They're actually going to do what they say if they get the position to do it. Take them literally, stop thinking it's just bluster it. It's what they will do if they get the power to do it. Look at what Trump's doing with Agenda 2025. This is what AVD will do. They will deport even Germans. They have introduced this horrible thing called Biodeutsche, which is another word for Aryan. This is back in the public debate in Germany. Don't think this is without danger. And stand up and speak up because the vast majority, the vast majority, don't want this and are abhorred about this. And, you know, the fact that Kirby de Wilders became the biggest party is because

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  7. And let's not vilify each other and cancel each other, cancel culture as one of the worst, worst effects of this populism. And the fact that the left and people who see themselves as

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  8. Could perhaps lead the way and say we can take care of these populists and the concerns they represent, which are real concerns of real people. We can take care of these concerns of the people without allowing the populists into the government. And in that sense, Germany can be an example. They failed in Austria, as you know very well, because they made outrageous demands that even the center-right couldn't accept. This is an opportunity in the Germanic world for the center to reclaim its place. This is the offer I give to the center parties in the Netherlands. We are a left-wing party. And we will extend our hand to the center. But then you have to come back to the center. If you stay where you are, my extended hand will never be far enough for us to reach a coalition. But if you come back to the center, we can have sensible policies in the center. I will not get everything I need. You will not get everything you need. But that's how you find the compromise.

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  9. Is where the center-right who are affording him a position as de facto leader of this country because they thought they could beat him by taking over his agenda. And I simply don't understand why this center-right keeps making the same bloody mistake over and over again. Merz made the mistake, but he made it early enough to be able to correct it. So Merz made the same mistake in saying, okay, I'll take the votes of the RFD. Huge public outroll. People, I mean, the sad thing is Germans go into the streets. The Dutch don't do that. But Germans went to do the streets, which is obviously their history. And Merz was smart enough to correct his course. And at the last debate with the four candidates, he thrashed the AFD candidate because he needed to, not because he loved to, but because he needed to. So I hope this means that Germany will have some form of a grand coalition.

    2025-02-24 · The Rest Is Politics: Leading · 122. How Europe can survive Trump (Frans Timmermans) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  10. feel strange to you. You can imagine how it feels to us. It's very peculiar. And the government is not able to do anything. I mean, we have complete standstill of policies. Nothing's happening on this issue of migration. You know, it's typical for the one issue they want to tackle is migration. But because the leading party on migration is a populist radical right party, they apply the same rules as they all do. So they make impossible promises. Then it turns out they can't deliver on them and then they blame somebody else for not being able to deliver. It's the same thing everywhere. It's the same spiel in Trump country. It's what they do here. It's what Orban does and others do. But since we have a need of a coalition, whatever happens in this country, Wilson is not on his own. And my problem is not with Wilders. He would have done this always. My problem is...

    2025-02-24 · The Rest Is Politics: Leading · 122. How Europe can survive Trump (Frans Timmermans) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  11. Because they know that government can then not no longer control them. And bringing back control by democracies on economic actors like we did in the 19th century, like we had to do after the first half of the 20th century, is one of the biggest tasks of politics left, right, and center. And I think the left should take a lead in this. I think if we cannot get the biggest conglomerates in the world under democratic control, yes, they can make money. Wonderful if they are successful, but they cannot control our societies the way they want to control them. They cannot have algorithms deciding on how our societies are structured without public authorities having the right to see what these algorithms are doing, etc. And if they are too big, they have to be cut up. They have to be carved up. That's what we did in the past if they became too big. That's an instrument we will have to use in the future. If we don't do that, we will.

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  12. I'm afraid it is, and even at the risk of losing some of your voters initially, once the system becomes more just, the problem is we can no longer do this only on a national scale. You know, our societies were built on a national scale dating from the 19th century, where you controlled taxes on a national scale because those industries paying the taxes could not afford to just walk away. And now the biggest industries in the world are foot loose. They can go wherever they like in a millisecond. And that's why you have difficulty taxing them. But they still want to sell their products on your market and they want to be active on your market. So controlling the tech mobiles is going to be the first biggest challenge. And this is what Trump is going to try, bully Europeans in not controlling the tech mobiles. And the fact that these tech modules, like the governance that Trump is offering,

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  13. Which has led to an explosion of what you can make with capital without hardly any gains of what you can make with. Really hope that this is what's going to happen to the Labour Party in the UK. But we will all have to go through that process not want to please people, but to want to make sure that the injustices in our society are addressed much better than we've done in the last 20 years.

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  14. I believe if I look back at our election in November 23, it was more like a Brexit referendum than an election because people were so fed up with the government not performing, with the government being in a number of real horrible scandals about social security, about ethnically profiling people who had a right to social security. A horrible scandals. And people were so fed up with the government. And they took it out on the establishment. And, you know, even if we are not the elite in economic terms and financial terms, far from it, we are seen as the elite in cultural and political terms. And they really took it out on us. And that is a phenomenon you see everywhere in the Western world. And it's also a consequence of a whole range of financial crises, of the really big downside of thatch right economics.

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  15. And in my view, very astute politician with whom I profoundly disagree. But when I tried in a debate with his methods, he beat me so easily because he's so much better at it. And I felt really bad about myself doing this. And people could, because I have a very expressive face, people could see it that I was feeling bad about myself. And so I stopped. And now I address them in my own way. And that feels a lot better. Is it effective politically? I don't know. But I know one thing for sure. Don't try and be somebody or not because people see it and people will not like you for it. And you certainly not add yourself for it.

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  16. Well, I tried and it certainly didn't work for me, it didn't work for me at all. And I struggled for six months in this parliament before finding my own voice again and just no longer trying to be like them and just be myself. And that works better. It's not perfect yet. We're doing okay in the polls, but we're not growing yet in the polls. So I have a lot, a lot of work to do. I was reminded of something Bill Clinton once said to me many, many years ago when these populists came up, how do we deal with it? And he said, well, I know one thing for sure. Never get into a mod fight with a pig because a pig feels really comfortable and you look really bad. And he was so right because it happened to me. When I tried to match George Wilds, I'm not calling him a pig. It's just a figure of speech. Certainly not calling him a pig because he's a very, very smart.

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  17. And I think this is working well for me on a personal level. I have no idea whether it works well politically. It might not work well politically, but that's not my main concern.

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  18. To it. I was used to be criticized about my policy, the Green Deal, etc., but I wasn't used to this being directed at me as a person. And at some point I decided to just not care about that so much. It's like crossing a Rubicon. I'm not sure this will work for me politically. I'm not sure, but personally it works well. Personally, I sleep better because of this and I care a bit less. Interestingly enough, Once the people who know it hurts you see that it doesn't hurt you so much anymore. They relent a bit. They don't continue in the same way. And I've been very open about my personal life in the last couple of months. I couldn't get my weight under control anymore, so I had a gastric bypass operation. And I decided to be very open about that so that, you know, people knew what I was struggling with and how I dealt with it.

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  19. Yeah, that's fine. I don't mind. I am explicit today because I have a sense of urgency today. And if I were just thinking about what could be used against me once I would be in a position of governing, then I might have missed the opportunity to warn people about the things I feel today are topical and urgent. When I came back to Dutch politics, I wasn't prepared for the fact that things had gotten so rough in Dutch politics. It's very personal. It's not as rough as in the UK, but it's also a lot more personal the attacks, especially from people who disagree with me on the right and especially on the radical right are really very, very personal. I struggle to deal with that for quite some time because I wasn't used.

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  20. Well, I didn't win the election. I'm in the opposition. That makes things easier. I couldn't be saying these things if I were prime minister. And I wouldn't be saying them if I were prime minister. Let's be honest. You can't expect prime ministers to say these things. I didn't win the election.

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  21. And Trump said of Jean Claude Juncker he's a brutal killer, literal quote, I heard him say it. You have to have this deference to a man who sees himself as a great leader or who needs the confirmation that he's a great leader. But at the same time, you have to be tough against a man who sees himself as a tough negotiator and has respect for other tough negotiators. And as long as he can portray whatever he negotiates as a good deal for him, then he will let you have a victory as long as it's not seen as a victory.

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  22. Clout to tell to the rest of Europeans now, all of you shut up, let Yunkudu this job, and Yunko did, there's also, and this shows the genius of Merkel, she understood that there was also a measure of misogyny in the game, especially against slightly older women, and she understood that that wouldn't be helpful. So that was also a reason to put Jean-Claude in there game. And of course, the commission is responsible for trade. And at the end of the day,

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  23. Well, you know, if flattery could get us out of this situation anytime soon, I would be lying at his feet, kissing his feet, whatever would be necessary. But I fully respect the European leaders being nice to him and doing whatever he really needs for his ego. If I were prime minister, I'd do exactly the same thing, to be honest with you. The only thing is, at the same time, you need to create a united front because I remember vividly in the European Commission when he threatened Europe with trade measures. Angela Merkel had the foresight to say to Jean-Claude Juncker, Jean-Claude, you are now speaking on behalf of all of us. That is not a point of discussion. We will not speak to them about this. You will do this. They tried everything to sideline the Commission to talk to individual prime ministers. And Angela had the

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  24. Your part. And by the way, to do that, I need Greenland. Too bad for NATO partner Denmark. You're simply not in my area of influence. So if I want to take Greenland without any justification, if I want to take Panama, if I want to take Canada for that matter, I get to do that. And if Xi Jinping wants to take Taiwan, well, that's up to him. That's his part of the world. And, you know, Europe, let's divide it between Vlad and myself, and then we'll all be happy. I mean, I don't think it's much deeper than that, sadly. The only question for me is at what point is the United States going to wake up? And I take some comfort from Churchill, who said, you know, the United States, they always do the right thing after having done all the wrong things before that. So let's hope this will happen, but let's hope it happens soon and before the consequences are so grave that we're hardly

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  25. Roy, I always mind your analytical skills on these things. So I'll just give you my analysis. To a large extent, it's all domestic policy. To a large extent, it's playing to what MAGA expects of him. To a large extent, it's showing that America is respected again. I mean, it's quite the contrary. It's sometimes so Orwellian. Everything they say is upside down. Look at Vance's speech in Munich. And it's all playing to MAGA. But the consequences of this are phenomenal and horrible for the position of the United States. And we're just collateral damage in all of this, but the United States itself and its international position is one of the main victims. The only way I can picture what he's doing is like, you know, if you have a big city, let's imagine the world is a big city and you have different gangs. And the gangs say, okay, let's not have a gang war. Let's divide up the city, carve it up. And I'll have my part. You'll have your part. And we'll be the sovereign in my part. I will not interfere what you do in your part.

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  26. As well. 1,500 casualties on the Russian side every single day. Putin is not that strong. So we need to show our strength. That's the only language he understands. I met the man for the first time when he was deputy mayor in Petersburg in 1991. So I've known him for all these years. I've seen how he develops. This is the worst possible form of authoritarian ruler who will not stop unless somebody says stop and pushes him back.

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  27. The Russian Zarac like a cat with mice playing with the Americans right now, and Trump is even echoing Putin's playbook on a daily basis, accusing Ukraine of having started this war, etc. They're absolutely drinking vodka directly from the bottle right now in Moscow because it's all going their way. But this can't last. This is going to hurt Trump more and more also domestically if he continues along these lines. And then perhaps we will get a moment where Trump will say, okay, Europeans are needed at the table. We will not strike a deal without the Ukrainians being part of that deal. And then at the same time, we as Europeans need to mobilize together with the Brits as much money and weapons we can mobilize now to put Zelensky in the strongest possible position in the coming weeks and months so that he can continue this fight. It's taking a lot out of the Russian.

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  28. Two things will happen. Putin will start rearming immediately and will take more out of Ukraine and will start threatening other countries in the region. And if the administration in the US continues like this and they actively disavow Article 5 of NATO, then even NATO countries will be threatened, especially the Baltic states. So that is the worst possible scenario. And then in Ukraine, the Ukrainians will not accept this. And you will have a resistance movement. civil war i mean this is a i need to imagine it because it's possible but it would be the worst possible outcome for europe but it's not impossible that this would occur i hope this call to arms in europe will lead to a stronger European position i think you know this horribly inexperienced team that trump is now fielding

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  29. In the blackest of scenarios, in the worst possible scenarios. And they strike a deal. And we are too weak as Europeans to prevent that deal from happening. And they carve up Europe. And they give Putin what he wants on Ukraine. And we would say, yeah, like with Czechoslovakia 1938, yeah, too bad. Nothing we could do about this, at least now he's satisfied and we've finished.

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  30. Way of involving, I mean, it would be a huge asset for us, EU and for Britain to be part of the energy union. Why not? We share this shallow North Sea. It's the biggest source of our future energy. And Britain is an integral part of that. And Ireland is doing well at this. We could have an interconnection all the way from Ireland to the Ukrainian-Russian border at some point. And I think we need to think in those terms about common projects that we need to work on. And then at some point, relationship between the UK and the EU will develop. That will be fruitful for both sides. I don't want to talk about membership. That's a very, very long process. But there are alternatives to membership. Necessity makes us, forces us to think in creative terms. And I suspect Norway will go more or less the same way. So that might make things for Britain a bit easier as well.

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  31. But I think Kirstama going to Paris for this summit to me has historic significance for a number of reasons. First of all, the UK saying we're in this together. We are trying to be the bridge to the US, however difficult that is, is a huge gift to Europe. But it also strengthens the UK's position on the continent, but also internationally. So it works both ways. So I think this is a wonderful beginning. And my hope is that this will make the discussion about getting closer to Europe in the UK easier. I think the public is ready for this unless you correct me. This is how I see the British public. The British political establishment isn't ready for this, and sadly the Labour Party isn't ready for this, but I hope the Labour Party will soon be ready for this out of simple necessity. And then Europe, the EU, the European Commission, leading nations in Europe, will have to be creative in offering things they can offer to the UK that are perhaps a bit out of the box, like looking at another way of creating free trade across the English Channel.

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  32. had the complete opposite view British membership of the EU kept the EU in balance and kept the EU in a place in international relations the EU needs to be and one of the reasons we're now on the menu rather than at the table is because the UK left this didn't mean that the UK's all of a sudden became a global player it really diminished the UK's position in the world as well so both of us lost tremendously and I'm not even talking about the horrible economic effects on the UK of this

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  33. For me personally, it had a devastating effect on me personally. I was depressed for a long, long time when it happened. I couldn't believe this happening, even though I had a wager with the then British commissioner. I said they'll vote to go out. And it was more trying to dispel my fears than that I thought they would vote to go out. And they did. I kept the pound that I won in that wage. As a memento of this, because it was a huge blow to Europe's position in the world. A huge blow. We tried to mitigate it. And I was in the commission with Jean-Claude Juncker at the time, and he himself, and first he was very insulted by this, but then people with his vision of Europe and a number of people around him actually were happy with Brexit because they thought then we can go along with the Europe like we wanted because the Brits were always making things difficult for us.

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  34. So it is about our stability. It is about importing conflict if you don't export stability. That's the deal. It's very simple. Either we export our stability or their instability will be imported into the heart of Europe.

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  35. Shadows feel closer to Serbia, you know all of that. Again, it's exactly the same game as in the 19th century, and it could also not end in the same way. History rhymes, it doesn't repeat itself, but it could again lead to bloody conflict in that area if the prospect of EU integration isn't kept alive. And I strongly believe in this. If membership is not on the books, and I've argued this endlessly in the European Commission, at least offer them an energy union. We all have an energy issue on our continent, and we can only solve that by reducing energy prices. The only way we can do that is speeding up energy transition to renewables. And the only way we can do that is if we do it on a continental scale. And Ukraine will be a huge asset in this, but also the Balkans can be extremely useful, especially because then interlinkages with Turkey can also be created in a positive way.

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  36. Yes, Roy, I almost hear the echo of it's about people far away with whom we have no, etc. What I really hope we could bring across is that what's happening now between Trump and Putin, who have taken out their carving knives and said, okay, I'll take a part of Europe, you get a part of Europe, and then we'll both be happy. And Trump thinks I might one day be as filthy rich as you are, Vladimir. That's the thinking. That's 19th century thinking. But I would like to say this 19th century thinking has been going on for a decade or more in the Balkans because Europe has not sped up the integration of these countries. So everyone and their dogs are fighting for the Balkans. It's the Russians, it's the Turks, it's the Saudis by now, it's us. And then, of course, this competition even between European countries, some feel closer to

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  37. hungry is by far worse than in any other country in the region and in the EU because he's never invested in it. He's built stadiums in his village. He's done horrible. He's made all his friends filthy rich with EU money, but he's not invested in development.

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  38. You know, I don't know if you know this, but I had huge fights with the Hungarians. I took them to court many, many times in my first mandate as European vice president. I won all the court cases against him. I was together with Soros Enemy No. 1 for many, many years in Hungary. If you would have asked this question a year ago, I would have said immediately they don't belong in the EU. They really don't belong in the EU. They're a thorn in our side. They weaken us. You know, the fact that Macron had to call a summit with only a limited number of member states of the EU the other day is because of Hungary. They don't want Hungary at the table when they discuss Russia and Ukraine. But political developments in Hungary have really changed. And Orban is really losing his grip on the country. He has let his country down in such a horrible way. Healthcare in

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  39. I agree with you. First of all, I think Trump might be with all the misery he's bringing to our transatlantic relationship. He might be a blessing in disguise for EU enlargement. Because I think there will be a rethink in a number of member states in should we not consolidate also EU membership. I think there will be a speeding up of the process of EU membership of Ukraine. But you can't do that if you don't offer a real perspective also to countries in the Balkans, also to Moldova, also to Georgia. And in this process, we will have to start from scratch by saying, listen guys, this is something we need to do for our security and our stability, but it's going to be a really different union than the union you're used to. If you don't say that at the outset, people will be frustrated, disappointed, and will start refusing this development in early stages. Secondly, on your second point about Hungary,

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  40. That contributed to Brexit is that we reduced the European saga, the European destiny, to simply are we making enough money out of this or not. At the end of the day, this is not something you can rally people around. I'm convinced about that

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  41. They didn't want a Polish plumber that would destroy the labor market. So the consequences on a geopolitical scale of European enlargement, it's the biggest achievement Europe has ever had. But for the individual citizens in the old member states, the feeling was also, hey, something's being taken away from me and I get competition from people who are willing to work for cheaper wages and it's going to be harder to find a home, et cetera, et cetera. We really, really were not successful in selling this to our public as a huge achievement for all of us and a contribution to our stability. And because it became more difficult, instead of making the story of Europe bigger, we made it smaller and smaller and reduced it to simply the common market. And I think this is one of the elements.

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  42. Sure, we can accommodate them. And they also have their demands. And we don't always get our way anymore. And sometimes we're outvoted. We don't want that. And we haven't been able sufficiently to convince people that, yes, there are things you have to give up, but there's so much more you get back for this. And so the downsides were emphasized a lot. And then, of course, nationalism made a huge comeback. And this is wonderful fuel for nationalists to use. Then it's drawn into identity. And you remember the first instance, it was a man who sadly died yesterday, which was a leading Dutch politician Bolkestan. He was a liberal. When he became European Commissioner, he wanted to liberalize the services on the European scale, which in the UK went down extremely well, but which in France led to almost a revolution because

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  43. A union of six, nine, twelve and fifteen, especially with all the differences there were. And these differences are not just economic. Those were the most important differences, but there were huge cultural differences and especially political differences that needed to be accommodated, that needed to find the spot. And obviously the new member states said, okay, we will eat humble pie for a couple of years, but we're going to catch up. And now, rightfully, they're saying, listen, we are equal member states. We deserve exactly the same role. Our priorities are also priorities for the EU. And this emancipation, which is in fact, it was an emancipation, a political emancipation, did not always go down well in the old member states, especially not in my country, in different countries, where people were saying, hey, wait a minute, you were saying this is going to make them like us, but it's changing us as well. And we have all these people coming to work here.

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  44. Well, I think to some extent there was a lack of political leadership, there was a lack of understanding, there was all sorts of presumptions with this. I remember very vividly traveling in Eastern Europe just before the collapse of the Iron Curtain when this idea came about you're going to be members of the EU. And many of people thought, well, once the Iron Curtain is gone, somebody will drive up with a Mercedes and give me a Mercedes and I will be as rich as the people in the West. And in the West, the assumption was, once these countries are going to join step by step, they'll all turn out like we are, and nothing's going to change for us, and everything will stay the same, and we never prepared our population for the fact that joining two sides of Europe changes both sides of Europe.

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  45. Pessimistic about Russia that nobody wanted to hear that. And we then fell into the trap. The Germans first and foremost, but all of us, certainly our Stutch as well, to think, well, by tying in Russia, by creating an energy community with Russia, which is in fact what the Germans did and we followed suit, we would make them dependent on us being their customer and underestimated how we became dependent on their energy. And given the fact that it was cheap, we could compete with the Americans and the Chinese who also had cheap energy. And once the era of cheap energy ended, the European economy immediately got deep into trouble because in the same period, energy prices in the US went down and then Europe went up. And that's an impossible situation for an industrial group of countries to be in.

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  46. I think if I recall my own euphoria in 1989 and the tremendous success that nobody, you know, I remember vividly being in Eastern Europe when there was still a wall. I remember vividly the huge difference in development, both morally, politically, economically, between East and West. And I would have never imagined that when the war fell in 1989, that by 2004 all these countries would be a member of the EU. That was an enormous achievement. Incredible achievement. Arguably the biggest achievement in Europe in the past century. This created so much optimism that went into hubris at some point. And I think it's a hubris that got us the belief that everything was moving in the same direction, backlashes were not to be expected. And even though I consistently was very...

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  47. My class of diplomats, if I can still refer to myself as a diplomat, those of us who try and follow international relations, like you two as well, I shared fully Rory's analysis of the outcome of the United States elections. And we were both horribly wrong about this simply because we thought, I thought at least with my experience that I could make a fair assessment of where we would be going. And at my age, I'm almost 64, you tend to forget when you were wrong and you tend to really remember well when you were right. And all of this combined, the older I get, the more humility I develop for my own analysis. And in the situation we're now in, we can talk for hours about how we got it wrong. But now we have to get cracking and get things right.

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  48. Soviet Union, when I started reporting as a young diplomat, listened, the Soviet Union is going to fall apart. Everybody was telling me, you're killing your career with these reports. It's not going to happen because it's not in their interest. And it's certainly not an in our interest. So as though the Russians were even interested in taking our interest into account their choices. But my conclusion after what I've experienced is that we have a lack of imagination. We still have a lack of imagination. We just can't imagine the extent of the changes that can occur. And then we can't imagine the consequences of those changes, which mostly are unintended consequences.

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  49. First of all, thank you very much for having me on your show. I mean, I'm a great admirer of your work, and I follow you very closely a couple of times a week. You know, the question you ask is a question that bothers me a lot because like many politicians, I ask myself, what have I missed? How is it that we're in this situation? We saw some trends over a longer period of time. But then still this enormous surprise of a Trump calling Putin excluding Ukraine out of discussion of its own future, turning his back on Europe after 80 years of consistent policy, etc., etc. And it's not the first time this happened to me. I remember when the war fell, we were not prepared for that, even though the signs were clear before then. And also when I worked in the

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