YouSaid · the spoken record

Gina Martin Adams

lines on the record: 78
first: 2016-08-26
most recent: 2016-08-26
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

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“The price trend matters. Absolutely. When I started up, I was fully fundamentally biased. You know, I had my fundamental hat on and I held to it and I've held to it too strongly on a number of occasions. I mean, the times that I regret most in my career and in my investing life are the times when I ignored what the market was telling me.”
2016-08-26 · Masters in Business · Interview With Gina Martin Adams: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Oh my gosh, I should have looked at this question markfully. I warned you, I said, look at section five. It requires a little. What do I know?”
2016-08-26 · Masters in Business · Interview With Gina Martin Adams: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, if you love finance, there is a home for you. I think that. This generation is very different than past generations in that they have sort of a different standard for what they want out of a work-life balance. You know, when I got out of school, the goal was to work 120 hours a week for two years so that you could be in an investment bank, right? So this is a little bit different, but I think that there are a lot of opportunities in finance within and without, even as it's the headcount is coming. I do. I think, you know, if you have a passion for this business, you will find a home”
2016-08-26 · Masters in Business · Interview With Gina Martin Adams: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“That's not finance related or not economic impossible. Everything I read in a nonfiction universe is either finance or economics really. So giving non-economics but finance.”
2016-08-26 · Masters in Business · Interview With Gina Martin Adams: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“On a number of occasions, looking at what banks did, for example, in the Great Depression versus what they're doing today, you can look at some of his work, and it shows, it has great historical perspective. You can find little nuggets of information that are still very useful.”
2016-08-26 · Masters in Business · Interview With Gina Martin Adams: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Among psychotists, which is really surprising. But if you look at some of his work, he did the monetary history of the United States, which goes all the way back in time. And I've referenced that piece.”
2016-08-26 · Masters in Business · Interview With Gina Martin Adams: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“What other books on the nonfiction side I actually love Milton Friedman's work. I mean, I've devoured those books over time”
2016-08-26 · Masters in Business · Interview With Gina Martin Adams: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yes Session. It's kind of hard to say. It's pretty crazy when you look at our standard of living. And I understand that there are still a lot of households that are struggling to make ends meet, but you look at our broad standard of living and you compare that to what happened in the Depression. And there's nobody better at doing that than Steinbeck.”
2016-08-26 · Masters in Business · Interview With Gina Martin Adams: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Oh, yeah. So I talked a lot about investing books already with Kirkpatrick and John Murphy. So in terms of personal, more fiction-oriented books, I'm a huge Steinbeck fan. Okay. I don't know where this came from, if it's because we went through. Yes, exactly. Which is so. It sounds so boring. But I think when we went through, they become classic for a reason. You know, it's not.”
2016-08-26 · Masters in Business · Interview With Gina Martin Adams: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It's very technically oriented, so I'll have to look it up for you. But you just search on Charlie Kirkpatrick. He writes with Julie Dahlquist out of Texas. On price and momentum signals and their. I think very, very useful and very helpful. He's helped me bring an understanding of sort of backtesting and optimization that I didn't really have five years ago.”
2016-08-26 · Masters in Business · Interview With Gina Martin Adams: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So, in the earlier on in my career, I worked with John Lynch, who is a market strategist for Wells Fargo as well, but he's on the buy side of the firm. He had a number of years in New York working with DLJ. He's got a lot of great historical understanding of markets and really sorted forming my interest and strategy as a function. By the way, great technicians out there, Charlie Kirkpatrick is a current fantastic mentor of mine. Charlie does a lot of amazing work on price and momentum and has written a number of books. And he's a fantastic mentor as well.”
2016-08-26 · Masters in Business · Interview With Gina Martin Adams: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“No, he's fantastic. And he, when I was in my late 20s, you know, threw me out into things that I never thought I could do. So he was really sort of pushed me forward to try new things and really stretch my boundaries. And I will always appreciate that. He's still a mentor today.”
2016-08-26 · Masters in Business · Interview With Gina Martin Adams: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Collapse Absolutely. Wow. Well, I had a number of really, really great colleagues in First Union Wells Fargo, or Waccovia, Early Wells Fargo days. I worked for John Sylvia, who's our chief economist. So I know John for a long time.”
2016-08-26 · Masters in Business · Interview With Gina Martin Adams: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And that's the big psychological difference between today versus 2005 to 2007, right? 2005 to 2007, you did have some people suggesting subprime is a problem and everyone was a massively denying this as an underlying issue. Today, anything's a massive problem for the banks. So I think a lot of what's holding financials back is this psychological impediment. It's when's the next crisis coming? You know, is it going to generate out of Europe? Is it going to come out of China? Is it the energy complex? Is it student loan debt? You can name a gazillion things that are going to quote unquote bring the banks under the next, which is so unlikely. But the psychology is set up to expect that crisis.”
2016-08-26 · Masters in Business · Interview With Gina Martin Adams: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Next to nothing is bad debt. There have been some scares in this year's scare was the energy complex. And what does that really mean for bank balance sheets? But when you look at energy as a share of the debt or the assets on bank balance sheets, it's tiny. So it's...”
2016-08-26 · Masters in Business · Interview With Gina Martin Adams: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“We've started to see a bottoming out process, really starting in 2011 and accelerating in 2013. We started to see a bottoming process. And now it's growing as a share of the economy again.”
2016-08-26 · Masters in Business · Interview With Gina Martin Adams: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Financial insurance and real estate. Yep. It's back to actually just below its historical average. Oh, really? Is that going to keep going?”
2016-08-26 · Masters in Business · Interview With Gina Martin Adams: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah. Well, the one big difference is the financial stocks never achieved the excessive valuation and this extraordinarily positive market sentiment and the bubble status that Tech did. Financials as a share of the economy. Got very big housing specifically as a share of the economy was double its historical average share by its peak in 2006. So it was pretty”
2016-08-26 · Masters in Business · Interview With Gina Martin Adams: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I give up. Well, and we saw that, right? I mean, you saw technology relative performance really from 2000 into the 2007 peak was pretty terrible. I mean, nobody was putting more money to work in tech stocks after that blow-up. And it's been the same with financials. I mean, I think financials, a lot of what's happened with the financial sector, relative performance in the S&P 500 over this cycle is legacy what happened in 2008-2009.”
2016-08-26 · Masters in Business · Interview With Gina Martin Adams: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“In the institution of investment itself and the financial markets themselves. And I think that started back in the 2000 to 2002 period.”
2016-08-26 · Masters in Business · Interview With Gina Martin Adams: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So that's the bigger impact. I do think that there is something to be said for investors also moving into passive because, and this goes back to the 2000 crisis, I keep going back there because I think that's when all this really shifted. The 2008 exacerbated the trouble. But in 2000 to 2002, there was definitely a shift in investor sentiment toward equities. And a lot of that is all the accounting scandals that came up, the research and banking scandals that were uncovered. And investors. Yes, exactly. Lost a lot of faith.”
2016-08-26 · Masters in Business · Interview With Gina Martin Adams: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yes, yeah. So the bottom, 95% of income earning households have largely not participated at all in this massive bull run that we've had from 2019. So it's 200 plus percent.”
2016-08-26 · Masters in Business · Interview With Gina Martin Adams: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, except for the top 5%. Only the top 5% of income. Earners are actually still actively investing in the equity market, whether it be active or passive, they're putting money to work in stocks and the rest of the income groups, at least in 2013.”
2016-08-26 · Masters in Business · Interview With Gina Martin Adams: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“This survey of consumer finances shows that all segments of consumer income classes have actually seen their holdings in equity markets shrink over that.”
2016-08-26 · Masters in Business · Interview With Gina Martin Adams: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I think that's part of it. I think more importantly, it's been investors have just shunned Equity market altogether. And if you look at household ownership of equities, and this comes from this Fed survey of Consumer Finances, which they do every three years,”
2016-08-26 · Masters in Business · Interview With Gina Martin Adams: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And whatnot. So I think it's difficult to capture flows to the extent that we used to be able. And maybe part of that is active. Maybe I'm just active versus passive. Maybe I'm just finding a scapegoat because it's so difficult now. I don't know. But I think it's definitely changed the way that investors approach markets. The other thing I think is that it's done. Is made access to non domestic stocks.”
2016-08-26 · Masters in Business · Interview With Gina Martin Adams: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Have been a little obscure. Yeah, I think it's very, very difficult. It also moves so quickly with a high frequency trading. Sure.”
2016-08-26 · Masters in Business · Interview With Gina Martin Adams: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And we dropped sector flows from our methodology years ago because we were not able to prove a relationship between flows into sector-based funds and sector performance. Right.”
2016-08-26 · Masters in Business · Interview With Gina Martin Adams: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It's hard to tell. So that's what's important. That's what's tricky. Is maybe something's gone awry in the measurement because the measurement is based on the idea that you have these sort of actively managed funds and they're easily measured. They report their assets, right? There's clearly something going on with passive investment. That's where all the dollars have gone so far this cycle. And maybe we're undermeasuring what's going into the equity market. So if you were basing a methodology at all on flows.”
2016-08-26 · Masters in Business · Interview With Gina Martin Adams: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I don't think it necessarily has impacted our ability to figure out what's going on in the market. I mean, you know, prices are prices. Earnings are earnings, regardless of who's buying stocks, somebody's buying stocks at most points in time. What has impacted us in the sort of shift to passive versus active, part of it is a measurement issue, right? Because when you look at mutual fund flows through this cycle. And you look at what's gone into the US equity market, we're still actually sitting on net negative inflows to the U.S. equity market from 2009 to date. If you look at the official.”
2016-08-26 · Masters in Business · Interview With Gina Martin Adams: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So it's definitely impacted my client base. I'd say that's the biggest impact is in the client base. How money is managed and the products that they offer to customers are very different. So, you know, it doesn't impact my work as much because I'm still making sector and industry allocations recommendations. That's still ultimately as relevant for if I'm going to buy, for instance, if I'm going to go along a healthcare ETF or a technology ETF. It's still relevant there. For clients, it's changed a lot. Our clients are the institutional investors. What are the products that their clients are asking them for? It's passive products in a lot of ways. So, you know. My client may want something very different than they would have wanted in the past. And we've all had to adjust as a result of that.”
2016-08-26 · Masters in Business · Interview With Gina Martin Adams: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Are two completely different It was the best place for them to go. Well, it's pretty restricted, actually. I am the institutionally designated equity strategist, so my work is I send it out on a distribution list so they can contact me at gina.martinadams at wellsfargo.com and I can get them on the distribution. But generally, if you want to get access to my research, you have to be able to get through to our website, which means you have to be an institutional investor.”
2016-08-26 · Masters in Business · Interview With Gina Martin Adams: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Right? Instead of watering our flowers and pulling our weeds. And technicals help you not to do that. They help you to continue to ride a price trend that's still moving higher, even if valuations are getting a bit stretched and every fundamental part of your body is saying maybe I don't necessarily want to continue to own this stock. The technicals help you to stay in that trade. On the other end, if the fundamentals are still great, but the price trend has turned, the technicals tell you to get out of that idea, right? In this business, we have this tendency to want to ignore the technicals and really focus on what we truly believe, which is our sort of fundamental basis for why I bought that stock or why I'm selling that stock. And sometimes the technicals tell you that you're wrong. And we need to respect that.”
2016-08-26 · Masters in Business · Interview With Gina Martin Adams: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, and somebody very much more brilliant than me stated, you put this idea in my head years ago that one of the sort of more disappointing aspects of our community of investment professionals is we have this tendency to water our weeds and pull our flowers.”
2016-08-26 · Masters in Business · Interview With Gina Martin Adams: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Again, I use technicals more for timing and fundamentals more for long term. But if you look at my model, for instance, for sector selection. Which is what we spend the vast majority of our time on, is sector and industry selection, allocation recommendations, it's equal parts, technicals, and fundamentals. It's equal parts, price momentum, earnings revision momentum as the more technical concepts and valuation and earnings estimate achievability, which are the more fundamental concepts. So I literally use them in equal parts for the vast majority of my work.”
2016-08-26 · Masters in Business · Interview With Gina Martin Adams: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Fundamental analysts who don't, they'll tell you they don't believe in technicals, but what fundamental analyst doesn't look at a price chart.”
2016-08-26 · Masters in Business · Interview With Gina Martin Adams: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“When we look at sort of valuing the market, it's a fundamental concept, right? What is a fair value for stocks right now is a completely fundamental concept. And when we look at sort of forward 12 month ideas for where should stocks trade, it's a fundamental concept. But I don't think that they're completely, I don't think you should detach fundamentals from technicals. I think that technicals describe the market and can be incredibly additive to a fundamental process as well. I mean, there are a lot of fundamental analysts who I call closet technicians.”
2016-08-26 · Masters in Business · Interview With Gina Martin Adams: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It's completely dependent on time period. Okay. Right. So we use technicals a lot more in describing short-term trends in the market, right? We're talking about where's the market likely to go over the next three to six months? Oftentimes we'll reference things like what's breath doing? Is breath expanding or contracting? What's momentum doing? Is it confirming or diverging from price? And what does that mean for the short-term outlook for stocks? I'll use technicals for long-term trends when major crossovers occur in moving averages, then you get a better sense of whether you're in, you're entering a longer-term bear or exiting a longer-term bull or vice versa.”
2016-08-26 · Masters in Business · Interview With Gina Martin Adams: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I think there's a little bit of both. I think there's a little bit of both. Again, it's sentiment, so it's a fuzzy measure. But I do think there's a little bit of both. And what we've done, some of our work has focused along even describing valuation, which is a fundamental concept in technical terms. So if you look over a long period of history and you look at the market valuation and how it moves, a lot of people look at valuation and they say, okay, relative to a mean, where is valuation? Right. Assuming the valuations always mean revert. And that may be true over long periods of time, but if you really look at the chart of the market PE, it actually trends. Valuations go through periods of time where they're rising and they go through periods of time where they're falling.”
2016-08-26 · Masters in Business · Interview With Gina Martin Adams: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, just price is representative of sentiment. It's what stocks are doing is in and of itself sentiment. If stocks are rising, you've got buyers willing to bid up prices. If stocks are falling, you've got sellers willing to take less, right? So there's a psychological component that is completely and totally described through price that I absolutely appreciate.”
2016-08-26 · Masters in Business · Interview With Gina Martin Adams: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It was a lot of crossover, I think, between fundamentals and technicals in some of Murphy's work. And I really appreciated that. And then, you know, I think on the technicals, there's no better explanation for market sentiment than the price itself, right?”
2016-08-26 · Masters in Business · Interview With Gina Martin Adams: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“That's a very fundamental tenet. But here is a technician talking about how to describe that economic cycle in charts and relative sector performance and the like. Here's the technician talking about bonds versus stocks versus commodities and different cycles that occur through time.”
2016-08-26 · Masters in Business · Interview With Gina Martin Adams: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So I didn't exactly do a course. But I will say there were some figures that really were some practitioners of technical analysis that really made a big impression on me.”
2016-08-26 · Masters in Business · Interview With Gina Martin Adams: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I didn't take a course. I did it all on my own. Oh, really? Yeah, it's very similar to the CFA where you read, you know, I don't know, eight different textbooks and get a test at three different tests to pass a test.”
2016-08-26 · Masters in Business · Interview With Gina Martin Adams: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Right. Sometimes the price trend goes beyond what fundamentals can justify. And so I started looking into the technicians' designation, went through that process.”
2016-08-26 · Masters in Business · Interview With Gina Martin Adams: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Went pretty went out of control, right? And we also really struggled, and I think most shops have struggled with forecasting the tenure treasury bond. The famous Greenspan's famous conundrum. Why is the tenure treasury staying low despite short rates moving higher and what's happening here? I started to develop a lot more respect for what the market was actually telling me and wanted to look at the charts and wanted to explore other options because”
2016-08-26 · Masters in Business · Interview With Gina Martin Adams: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Two level CFA exam in investment management, it was very promoted, you know, go in and do the CFA. It's your next step. So I definitely did that and found it very valuable. But when I was working as an economist, we really struggled to explain things like oil prices and where oil prices were going at the time. Remember between 2001 and 2008, oil prices just soared. We struggled to explain what oil prices were.”
2016-08-26 · Masters in Business · Interview With Gina Martin Adams: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“But I think we really all started to feel a lot better late 2008, early 2009 that at the very least Wakovia in its former self would survive as Wakovia's investment bank would survive as a portion of Wells Fargo.”
2016-08-26 · Masters in Business · Interview With Gina Martin Adams: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It's a very dedicated, very conservative, large bank. But having an investment bank was not something they historically had been interested in. So in the investment bank, we wondered, you know, are they actually going to be interested in the investment bank? And as much as they told us, yes, everything's fine. I don't think anyone felt 100% fine with it really until the end of 2008, early 2009, when we got much more communication about, you know, this is happening. You really are part of this bank. So there was a period of time where, you know The markets were imploding, and that implosion itself made you question how much risk this giant institution was willing to take on with its investment bank”
2016-08-26 · Masters in Business · Interview With Gina Martin Adams: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“As all of these seem to do. All great news does. I remember it was a weekend. I don't remember the exact day, but I remember it was a weekend. We knew that Wells Fargo had bought us, but there was still a big question mark in our minds. And that was. Wells Fargo historically had not been interested in taking the risk of having an investment bank.”
2016-08-26 · Masters in Business · Interview With Gina Martin Adams: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source