YouSaid · the spoken record

Harald Malmgren

lines on the record: 88
first: 2022-07-25
most recent: 2022-07-25
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

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“Well, I have an institute that was created on the Internet, Malgren Strategic Institute, and that's probably the easiest way to send me a message. You're fine, it's just malign strategic institute.”
2022-07-25 · Forward Guidance · Credit Market Implosion Will Be Severe, Says Harald Malmgren | Nicholas Glinsman, Harald Malmgren · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Anyway, I have done it at high levels in various countries. Strangely enough, Japan, which was an island nation and changed very slowly through the post-war years, I became advisor to quite a few of the CEOs in Japan about rethinking what was really a domestic business into a global business. So I can't generalize what I'm saying, but I'm a hired brain, and my special feature is I make you smart and I go out the back door and you get to say I wasn't there. That appeals greatly to the most senior people, obviously.”
2022-07-25 · Forward Guidance · Credit Market Implosion Will Be Severe, Says Harald Malmgren | Nicholas Glinsman, Harald Malmgren · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Sometimes it's a short period of meeting with the boards to walk through what they're thinking, sometimes the first person who brought me in was Henry Ford asked me to come to Dearborn on short notice and I showed up in the meeting at 9 a.m. having stayed overnight in the Ford's hotel and it was Lee Ayko and Henry said Lee will tell you what he's playing. I want you to tell him why he's full of shit. And you sandbagged me. So I come for hell for us and I did, Tom. He had it all wrong. He went out in the huff and Harry Ford said, I've been trying to find something to do that for years now. And he keeps telling me, he owned the shares, but he don't know anything about the business. Leave it to me. And you were able to tell him he is full of shit. So thank you. How do I describe that as a service? Valuable”
2022-07-25 · Forward Guidance · Credit Market Implosion Will Be Severe, Says Harald Malmgren | Nicholas Glinsman, Harald Malmgren · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I did for about 40 years. I did a monthly commentary on what I thought was happening that was different from what everybody else thought was happening. But I found that tiresome. Some kinds of CIO or the investment managers at some of the sovereign wealth funds. For quite a while with government investment corporation of Singapore, which is bigger than Tomasic. Basically, I'm doing what I've done for years, which is tailored advice to, let's say, a new executive taking over. Where do I go from here? How do I revamp? How do I reorient? certainly with the biggest companies that you mentioned, IBM and GE, that's exactly what they asked me to do. Rethink everything.”
2022-07-25 · Forward Guidance · Credit Market Implosion Will Be Severe, Says Harald Malmgren | Nicholas Glinsman, Harald Malmgren · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And if there's anything that we cover that could be slightly, we could be presumptuous in terms of we're finance people we understand will explain it. So you can get there on intelligencecourtly.com and that's for public consumption. We've got a lot of consulting clients, large institutions. And I weigh in on Harold as much as I can. As much as I can and so we've got a lot more plans a first.”
2022-07-25 · Forward Guidance · Credit Market Implosion Will Be Severe, Says Harald Malmgren | Nicholas Glinsman, Harald Malmgren · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, I write a global macro daily newsletter just trying to keep things within a cognitive threshold. These are the facts, you know, simple basis. If Powell's talking or will just listen to what they say and actions speak louder than words, which is what one of my colleagues, Alessandro, has been thumping the desk about in terms of Chinese fiscal stimulus. Where is it? There's been a lot of talked about. So we try to keep it real. Leo does European daily macro and covers it very well. Alessandro does the daily Asia stuff. And then we have Tracy Schushart doing energy, metals, and materials reports every week will culminate in four reports a week in the end. So we try to keep things real and informative.”
2022-07-25 · Forward Guidance · Credit Market Implosion Will Be Severe, Says Harald Malmgren | Nicholas Glinsman, Harald Malmgren · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, I think what they want and what they'll get, Paul has a passion. He certainly wants to do what Nick is saying. I don't know if he can hold a majority together. You know, the cohesiveness is going to be tested. And the way the economy is weakening pretty fast. So what the attitudes will be three months from now hard to judge. The FOMC boging will be much more attuned to the district than now. So he'll try, and maybe he'll get to somewhere like four, but more likely he'll run out of enthusiasm amongst colleagues. Little before then.”
2022-07-25 · Forward Guidance · Credit Market Implosion Will Be Severe, Says Harald Malmgren | Nicholas Glinsman, Harald Malmgren · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Suspect there may be a reassessment with this next meeting, okay, and it will be higher. I suspect also that, in fact, Powell and those on that side of the fence are more Bill Dudley, 4-5% Not so if that's their intent, they'll be more front-loading and they'll try and get as much done as possible. As you know, Jack, as I mentioned it to you, I have a bet with somebody for $100. He said, I'll take me under on three and a half percent as the terminal rate. And I said, mine, done. And then after the last Fed meeting, I phoned him up and said, I'll sell it back to you for 88. And he said, no, I'll run the risk. It's not worth the discount. So I think And a half is the minimum. I think they'd like to get somewhere between four and five percent. But also remember, quantitative timing is running in the background.”
2022-07-25 · Forward Guidance · Credit Market Implosion Will Be Severe, Says Harald Malmgren | Nicholas Glinsman, Harald Malmgren · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Problems in the ports that jammed up our supply chains. But Biden will be known as somebody who continued incrementally with policies that were already in place, but did not rise to the challenges, did not generate a new team of people, did not bring in fresh thinking and allowing the more extreme parts of the Democratic Party to have too much influence,”
2022-07-25 · Forward Guidance · Credit Market Implosion Will Be Severe, Says Harald Malmgren | Nicholas Glinsman, Harald Malmgren · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Instead of his hands and he doesn't have a team of people thinking through, he never had rubber our problems when he became president. Number one probably was the need for an energy transition. How do we move from where we are without just shutting everything down? First thing he did was shut down the keystone pipeline on the day he took office. It was bizarre. Shutting down drilling, restricting measures, but no thought, okay, what do we do instead? No request from the Department of the Department of Energy, why don't you ramp up, how do we bring on nuclear power faster? No effort to deal with Department of Transportation has huge powers if you want to use them to flu up all these”
2022-07-25 · Forward Guidance · Credit Market Implosion Will Be Severe, Says Harald Malmgren | Nicholas Glinsman, Harald Malmgren · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Right now, if you ask me who is in charge of what we're doing with UFREN, I would say it's the U.S. Navy. They are making all the decisions about interaction with the UK, Poland, the Scandinavians, the Baltic states. They are the backup for that whole system. They are the protectors of North Europe and the Arctic. I know nobody thinks about it, but those are the people because they're organized and they have an agenda. amount of conversation between the White House and what this group is called the second fleet is minimal and I did have occasion not long ago to say why don't you guys know white house spend more time talking to the people running the sacred fleet they said oh they're down in Norfolk that's four and a half hours drive I said Jesus you know they got helicopters you want to meet”
2022-07-25 · Forward Guidance · Credit Market Implosion Will Be Severe, Says Harald Malmgren | Nicholas Glinsman, Harald Malmgren · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Now it's going to have Republicans and the Democrats are not going to agree on anything. So we're going to have big questions. Why are we still in Ukraine when we've got this problem in San Diego or in Chicago? There'll be a lot of rethinking of how committed are we? And then no clear agenda of either party for the next presidency. Republicans know they hate Democrats. They hate progressives. But they don't have some new theme or set of themes. So we're in a period where I'm not sure what our leadership will do, but it may very well turn more nationalistic, more isolationist, simply because everybody's busy with their own specific district or boating. Base or the money that they can collect, who owns that money. We're in a dreadful period when in theory our leadership is on the rise, but in reality.”
2022-07-25 · Forward Guidance · Credit Market Implosion Will Be Severe, Says Harald Malmgren | Nicholas Glinsman, Harald Malmgren · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“In the UK, Bojo resigned, sticking around for a few weeks. And then we have a president who's getting older. And let's say fragile and a vice president who, let's say politely, is not ready to take a large role. Let me pose you one more question about this leadership problem. All over the world, There has been increased attention to the U.S. leadership in the way that U.S. is interacting with the Scandinavians, Poland, Baltic states. In this Ukraine practice. Now we're coming to the midterm elections. Now let's say hypothetically Republicans regain control of the House said it is a little bit unclear, but it will still be a tight vote in the Senate. But in that period from 2022 to 204.”
2022-07-25 · Forward Guidance · Credit Market Implosion Will Be Severe, Says Harald Malmgren | Nicholas Glinsman, Harald Malmgren · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“National Assembly. And then we have the German shows up, but in the background his coalition is praying there are movements between the coalitions. Even the CDU seems to be gaining ground again. And the policies are diverging according to which region of Germany You're talking about it's all falling apart. I mean, it's the polar opposite of Merkel. There's no leadership. And then Italy, Podragi, who's a technical expert, you know, people tell me that every time he's in a meeting with politicians, he's left bloody on the floor being politicians rather partying. I mean, he has no power. So he has to resign.”
2022-07-25 · Forward Guidance · Credit Market Implosion Will Be Severe, Says Harald Malmgren | Nicholas Glinsman, Harald Malmgren · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, we had a G7 meeting about some days ago and who showed up Trudeau who has no power in Canada but has everybody really angry with him from Fucker's on up to just the people in the streets. We had my phone shows up but unfortunately for him he won the presidency but he lost majority control of”
2022-07-25 · Forward Guidance · Credit Market Implosion Will Be Severe, Says Harald Malmgren | Nicholas Glinsman, Harald Malmgren · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And interestingly enough, we saw the military leaders of the IDF Israel Defense Force meeting Saudi and UAE and Jordan and Egypt. That would take Harold down another interesting path for you in terms of we're all worried about the competence of the current leadership of the West. Maybe diplomacy and maintenance of allied relationships are not so dependent there. Over to you, Harold, because this is one of your big ones.”
2022-07-25 · Forward Guidance · Credit Market Implosion Will Be Severe, Says Harald Malmgren | Nicholas Glinsman, Harald Malmgren · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Also, I've actually heard, funnily enough, so there's this concern of what's the reaction in the financial markets, particularly with the sovereigns, having weaponized the dollar against Russia. Actually, what I've heard is to continue on Harold's theme there. I've heard shifts of huge amounts of dollars into custodians in the US from Middle Eastern sovereign wealth funds. I suspect started during the Trump presidency has been encouraged under Yellow. Encouraged I think that's also part of the Side discussions that have gone on with Biden's visit.”
2022-07-25 · Forward Guidance · Credit Market Implosion Will Be Severe, Says Harald Malmgren | Nicholas Glinsman, Harald Malmgren · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“The Fed cannot have a foot. There are one track, but she can do it. By working with these really big funds and let's keep in mind really big funds, we're talking funds that range from $300 billion to well over a trillion. You know, you don't need to talk to many of these big funds if you convince them that they're secure if they stay committed to the US market, both treasuries and the stock market. So it's her way of compensating for Powell on the warpath. And by the way, it's really, really painful for China. So that's the Adams side benefit.”
2022-07-25 · Forward Guidance · Credit Market Implosion Will Be Severe, Says Harald Malmgren | Nicholas Glinsman, Harald Malmgren · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Is forcing its independence and say we're independent, we have to follow our monetary policy and we have to fight inflation, then the Fed has taken away the put. And the Fed, in my opinion, hasn't got a problem with the stock market. They're looking at other stuff potentially breaking, but the stock market, as long as it's orderly and it's been reasonably orderly, despite people saying, oh, God, are we fallen three or four percent on the Nasdaq? That's nothing to anybody that went through the great in 2008. That was five, six percent every day. Anyway, so she wants, she is trying to provide a flow that creates support for equity in terms of those public institutions. But those public institutions are also capital investors. Can they invest in infrastructure? Yes, they can, and they do. So I think it's to support.”
2022-07-25 · Forward Guidance · Credit Market Implosion Will Be Severe, Says Harald Malmgren | Nicholas Glinsman, Harald Malmgren · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Personally, I think it's primarily a risk-off move. So what's Yellen's motivation? Harold, please correct me if I'm wrong. I think Yellen's motivation is Safe in the US dollar to the big international investors. Safe, we want to be a safe haven for investment, which ultimately means capital investment. And also, if you think of who she's been talking to, so the two examples that Harold said, the Norwegian Sovereign Wealth Fund and the Swiss National Bank, I know that for a fact. So you've got to think also perhaps the likes of a 10 a second Singapore or whatever. Got a huge equity portfolios if the Fed”
2022-07-25 · Forward Guidance · Credit Market Implosion Will Be Severe, Says Harald Malmgren | Nicholas Glinsman, Harald Malmgren · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Can we draw perhaps a line of distinction where, because you know, I think 58% of the DXY is US dollar next is the euro, and then somewhere a teen somewhere in the teens percentage is the Japanese yen. And both of those currencies have just, you know, they have extraordinarily loose monetary policies relative to the US. So to what degree is it a risk is the surge in the dollar a true risk off move, sort of a dollar milk shake, if you will, versus the sort of just a pure interest preferential play that we sort of learned in Econ 101 class.”
2022-07-25 · Forward Guidance · Credit Market Implosion Will Be Severe, Says Harald Malmgren | Nicholas Glinsman, Harald Malmgren · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“While we're in the land of FX, I want to go back to Harold's observation from his friend who's an insider who said that Treasury Secretary Yellen said months ago that she wants the DXY at 110. Well, she's got there. Why might that be an attractive strategy for the US? Because I think of her as a dove and a high level of the dollar is tight monetary policy. So why is that attractive to her? And then also.”
2022-07-25 · Forward Guidance · Credit Market Implosion Will Be Severe, Says Harald Malmgren | Nicholas Glinsman, Harald Malmgren · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Because they do need dollars to operate. Most suppliers to BRI will only accept dollars, regardless of what people say about the Remimbi and the future of the Remimbi. Where did Mr. Nickel in China do his trading on the LME? He didn't do it in China. So there's this huge need. And I mean, you can take Evergrand aside and look at Shamal or look at any of the others. They've defaulted on their offshore. So, I mean, one of my team, Alessandro has been really working on the real estate market in China. No bounce. I mean, even dead cats bounce, and there's no bounce And it's now being joined by pressure on other real estate markets. So why would China bounce given there's pressure globally on real estate anyway?”
2022-07-25 · Forward Guidance · Credit Market Implosion Will Be Severe, Says Harald Malmgren | Nicholas Glinsman, Harald Malmgren · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“But to invest in the mainland in China as an international fiduciary agent is uninvestable because you don't know whether you're getting your money back. Look what they did to even Chinese entities offshore. Diddy, what happened to the people who bought the IPO, right? They didn't care. You're right. You're absolutely right, Jack. They don't care. But this whole process is a pressure that's increasing the pressure on their shortage of dollars.”
2022-07-25 · Forward Guidance · Credit Market Implosion Will Be Severe, Says Harald Malmgren | Nicholas Glinsman, Harald Malmgren · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Not my mate, exactly so this is another problem for them and then since you had a look at Evergrand, of course what's happened is DD, the delisting move going on in Congress for a Chinese quota come. It's all pointing in that direction. So I've been out there saying and I've been criticized for it if you're a fiduciary agent running people's money in the West then China is uninvestable. You can invest to express views on China via Chinese proxies.”
2022-07-25 · Forward Guidance · Credit Market Implosion Will Be Severe, Says Harald Malmgren | Nicholas Glinsman, Harald Malmgren · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Remember the Chinese do want foreign money. Okay, so for example, and this is another problem area. So having chatted to an old colleague of mine from Salomon Brothers Days who's out in still in Hong Kong, but talking to a few people that invest in China. So they've got, they're focusing on Connect, the Shanghai Hong Kong Connect. This was a big two-way process, but clearly it was to have Western investors invest in mainland Chinese financial products equities or bonds, okay? Now, if I'm running a fund and I want investments in China, something happened, and I wanted to get my money out via Connect, which is what the whole point of Connect is, I'm going to phone up my favorite. Broker in Hong Kong. However, my favorite broker in Hong Kong is no longer a friend of mine from London.”
2022-07-25 · Forward Guidance · Credit Market Implosion Will Be Severe, Says Harald Malmgren | Nicholas Glinsman, Harald Malmgren · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“But the Evergrand's bulk of real estate debt is you want denominated, whereas in your typical emerging market, like Thailand or Argentina, Brazil, it's dollar denominated. So you don't have that sort of original sin problem when you have to owe tons of, you have to print tons of domestic curry to pay off debt denominated in a foreign currency.”
2022-07-25 · Forward Guidance · Credit Market Implosion Will Be Severe, Says Harald Malmgren | Nicholas Glinsman, Harald Malmgren · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“If I may, Harold, I saw there was a time maybe nine months ago when I did do a lot of research on sort of Evergrande. I'm out of date, but I think, yes, that's true, but that's just because they don't, you know, they don't value foreign investors as much as domestic investors.”
2022-07-25 · Forward Guidance · Credit Market Implosion Will Be Severe, Says Harald Malmgren | Nicholas Glinsman, Harald Malmgren · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Well, because they're not bringing in new dollars. And the dollars they had are being used as they go along. It's forgotten what is the dollar anyway out there? What's the euro dollar? What are these dollars? These are the dollar is collateral based. They need dollars to lever investments, the activities of the Chinese development of their And right now they've been drawing down dollars. So now there's dollar reserves are quite low. Now, some analysts saying, oh, that's because they're divesting. They want to get out of they want to make a new currency. They are desperate for dollars.”
2022-07-25 · Forward Guidance · Credit Market Implosion Will Be Severe, Says Harald Malmgren | Nicholas Glinsman, Harald Malmgren · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And Harold, how is it that they have a lack of dollars? Sounds like I mistakenly put the China in the same category as the Fed, where like they just have so many dollars that they don't need to worry, right? Because they had trillions and trillions of FX reserves. How is it that they now are running out?”
2022-07-25 · Forward Guidance · Credit Market Implosion Will Be Severe, Says Harald Malmgren | Nicholas Glinsman, Harald Malmgren · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I remember at the time saying, What do you think you're going to do with all this building? They melt them down and move them. What is the problem? But I think China is stuck. And this, and if you look at their export balance, they are in the same pickle in Germany suddenly in. No export demand, no export orders. There are charts on the internet you can find. We'll show you export orders. And it's just none.”
2022-07-25 · Forward Guidance · Credit Market Implosion Will Be Severe, Says Harald Malmgren | Nicholas Glinsman, Harald Malmgren · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Not going to be one or two banks, it's all over China. So this is what happens when you try to control everything and you don't allow innovation and exploitation of opportunity, especially in a time of technology moving so fast in so many markets, not only in services, but in making things, technology of production. So China, I think China is doomed now to sit where Japan was when their bubble blew up at the end of the 80s. China is going to have at least 10 years, probably longer, don't forget, when everybody thought Japan was going to be number one, Japan was buying all the real estate in Manhattan and Chicago and LA.”
2022-07-25 · Forward Guidance · Credit Market Implosion Will Be Severe, Says Harald Malmgren | Nicholas Glinsman, Harald Malmgren · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yes, right now they're shutting down all kinds of innovative business models because they don't conform to how they want to allocate capital, but at the same time are they doing that, they found that incomes are not rising. The base of demand inside China is not growing. And the working classes, they're putting all their money not in these new companies because they know they're being attacked, but they're putting the money in real estate. They buy an apartment, they buy another apartment, another apartment, and now what's happening is you're seeing people have deposits at the banks and they have mortgages with the banks. So there's from the below boiling up really serious unrest, then you can see it on the internet with this.”
2022-07-25 · Forward Guidance · Credit Market Implosion Will Be Severe, Says Harald Malmgren | Nicholas Glinsman, Harald Malmgren · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I've got two questions for you, Harold, and I want Nick to join in. The first one is how this centralization, to what degree do you think it's materially crimped economic growth? Because economic growth, you know, GDP year over year has been very robust in China. Do you think that the data is not accurate? But yeah, Harold, what about Chinese growth that's been so high? Do you think it would have been higher if they didn't have the centralized growth?”
2022-07-25 · Forward Guidance · Credit Market Implosion Will Be Severe, Says Harald Malmgren | Nicholas Glinsman, Harald Malmgren · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Target by 10, or at least I met the target, they're never going to say didn't meet the target or they end up in a gulag. So he said the only way I can run the system is I have to get an airplane every Monday and fly around to different sites and without warning saying I want you to open the doors. I want you to show me the inventories, what's going on. He said, I've got the whole country in fear that I'm coming. And so more or less I know what's happening. But he says, the only way he can really run a totally centralized system. I never forgot this discussion.”
2022-07-25 · Forward Guidance · Credit Market Implosion Will Be Severe, Says Harald Malmgren | Nicholas Glinsman, Harald Malmgren · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“To talk to anybody, I said, Yeah, I want to talk to the head of land. That's where all the centralized Russian decision making for industry. And they arranged that. And I had a lunch with this character. And I said, how do you keep track of the system that you're giving the reports? But how do you know you can believe them? And his response was, I'm so disappointed. Everybody told me you're a really smart guy. That's a really dumb question. I said, what do you mean? He said, a highly centralized system, it's simple. Everybody lies from the bottom, everybody precise, everybody else, and nobody tells the truth. Everybody says, I exceeded it.”
2022-07-25 · Forward Guidance · Credit Market Implosion Will Be Severe, Says Harald Malmgren | Nicholas Glinsman, Harald Malmgren · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“For total control using social threat system and maximum surveillance, not only among every Chinese, but stealing data from the US and everywhere else they know everything about everybody. But the purpose is to prevent you from deviating, you know, stay in your silo. Do what you expected of you, but do not wander the other side of town and have a conversation about a new idea, a new product. That's a no-note. So China is strangling itself. And it reminds me in the late 70s in Moscow as an associate, I was there with Kissinger, but I was invited.”
2022-07-25 · Forward Guidance · Credit Market Implosion Will Be Severe, Says Harald Malmgren | Nicholas Glinsman, Harald Malmgren · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Completely committed to centralized direction, which to me is a dead end because it crosses innovations and it leads to no innovation even in daily routines. It's impossible to put everything at one point and say make more steel or make more this without complexity playing a role in disrupting everything. There's no adaptation. So Xi Jinping has now become an ideologue.”
2022-07-25 · Forward Guidance · Credit Market Implosion Will Be Severe, Says Harald Malmgren | Nicholas Glinsman, Harald Malmgren · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I have an unusual insight into China that goes back some time. When I was an academic graduate studies at Oxford, I was doing Some really fundamental thinking about how far can personalization and there had been a debate for some decades before then about communist style centralization versus so-called capitalism decentralization. You know, it's a very elaborate subject. And from Deng Xiaoping onwards, this has been an ongoing question. Now she, Jinping, I thought, when he first came into office was going to be on the Deng Xiao Pini side of this more openness for private enterprise, for innovation, for startups. But it turns out he became focused on controlled of the economy.”
2022-07-25 · Forward Guidance · Credit Market Implosion Will Be Severe, Says Harald Malmgren | Nicholas Glinsman, Harald Malmgren · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“May I just throw out one additional potentialist? So what's happened with the technology sector and the chains of capitalist oppression being put on them, all these limitations? I've been hearing, and you're beginning to see slightly the ramification, the same is on the verge of happening to the finance sector. Okay, so one of the most senior guys of the PBOC is under arrest. For corruption. This guy set the financial regulations. And then you're seeing a few people, significant people at some of these medium-sized banks, none of the big is yet. But if they do that to the finance sector, oh my God, when you think of what's happened with technology, I will just throw that in before Harold takes over on China. Harold, over to you.”
2022-07-25 · Forward Guidance · Credit Market Implosion Will Be Severe, Says Harald Malmgren | Nicholas Glinsman, Harald Malmgren · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Harold, can you because Nick brought up China, can you tell us what the Chinese leadership, what are their goals, right? Because for the past 20 years, it was export-led growth, growth at all costs. We don't really care about anything else. And if you have an asset bubble to promote that, the better it is. But now, you know, there's sort of been a mercy killing of the real estate sector as well as severe handcuffs placed on technology companies such as Alibaba. The Chinese stock market has been more than cut in half. And as well, there's a zero COVID policy, which is severely crimping economic activity. Can you walk us through what the leadership in China is thinking? What are their ambitions? And why are they doing what they're doing?”
2022-07-25 · Forward Guidance · Credit Market Implosion Will Be Severe, Says Harald Malmgren | Nicholas Glinsman, Harald Malmgren · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Solutions. It's China. So if you make it, you know, Germany are now being criticized for the Russian gas dependency. If the world says solar panels, wind turbines, where are you going to get it from? China. So that's a sort of a similar dependency that's just not going to work in the long run.”
2022-07-25 · Forward Guidance · Credit Market Implosion Will Be Severe, Says Harald Malmgren | Nicholas Glinsman, Harald Malmgren · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Well, the way we can build nuclear reactors now is very different. And among other things, there's very little waste used to be the problem you generate waste where you put it. And the population across the grade, you know, radiation. Our power companies are not ready to make a big shift unless the federal government will impose its will on the states and say, okay, we've got to change all the regulations.”
2022-07-25 · Forward Guidance · Credit Market Implosion Will Be Severe, Says Harald Malmgren | Nicholas Glinsman, Harald Malmgren · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Go without nuclear. I've always can't have a An electrified system without nuclear. is clean. It's probably the cleanest. And I heard recently that very few people have died as a result of nuclear accidents.”
2022-07-25 · Forward Guidance · Credit Market Implosion Will Be Severe, Says Harald Malmgren | Nicholas Glinsman, Harald Malmgren · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“But we don't have a national, we have a Department of Energy which seems to have no thinking people at all. No one thinking about, okay, electric cars, but then, and where is this going? And can we rely on electricity without finding new sources of electricity?”
2022-07-25 · Forward Guidance · Credit Market Implosion Will Be Severe, Says Harald Malmgren | Nicholas Glinsman, Harald Malmgren · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“It's not far away. Toyota has been working on this for 30 years, but they're now super optimistic. So nobody's thinking about that because it's not in the headlines. In the US, we've experimented with natural gas for urban vehicles and government-owned, but we never really pursued it. We have no transition policy. But when you're out there far from our civilization in an emerging market looks very attractive, clean burying and until recently natural gas was plentiful. Now, of course, we have the ramifications of Russian forests in Europe in terms of submission by denying natural gas.”
2022-07-25 · Forward Guidance · Credit Market Implosion Will Be Severe, Says Harald Malmgren | Nicholas Glinsman, Harald Malmgren · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, I know copper remains important because if you're relying increasing electric vehicles, then you're relying increasing on the electric grid. You have to lay more wire everywhere to support all these vehicles. And you have to put charging stations everywhere. How far are we going to go with electric cars? It's a fad, just like solar panels on your roof is a fad. But where do I think we're going next? I will tell you that in Bolsti complex and in Toyota, they believe we're going very soon to green hydrogen. Really big investments going on in Australia to provide volume green hydrogen.”
2022-07-25 · Forward Guidance · Credit Market Implosion Will Be Severe, Says Harald Malmgren | Nicholas Glinsman, Harald Malmgren · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I take it from your comment. A more efficient, I take it that maybe you're not as inclined to the commodity super cycle view and you tend to be maybe a long-term bear on commodities. But am I right in that? And also, what is your view on long-term commodity prices? And then also, is there any particular commodity that you will think be important? For example, one thing that a lot of folks talk about is how integral copper will be for electric vehicles.”
2022-07-25 · Forward Guidance · Credit Market Implosion Will Be Severe, Says Harald Malmgren | Nicholas Glinsman, Harald Malmgren · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“But I mention these digital currency studies going on. Malta, in this massive, you know, if we're going to move, why not move in parallel? Now, I don't know where it will lead, but if we're going to have central banks digital or something else. But there is a process slowly developing that involves a lot of countries with Bank of England in the driver's seat.”
2022-07-25 · Forward Guidance · Credit Market Implosion Will Be Severe, Says Harald Malmgren | Nicholas Glinsman, Harald Malmgren · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I think, by the way, coincides with what's going on in the crypto world, digital currency thinking. I think there's Commonwealth restoration of the Commonwealth plus Japan as the heart of a new system of rules-based growth and trade. And it's going to be anchored in let's call it British law, you know, property law, which doesn't exist for these rogue players like Russia. And so I know it's popular now to say, oh, rules-based order, we've been there, done that. But that's where business is going to go.”
2022-07-25 · Forward Guidance · Credit Market Implosion Will Be Severe, Says Harald Malmgren | Nicholas Glinsman, Harald Malmgren · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT