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Harvey Schwartz

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2025-04-30
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2025-04-30
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  1. to grow and the most efficient way for them to source capital. This audience, if any of these numbers come true. I've seen numbers as big as 10 trillion over the next 10 years, 10% come. If any of those numbers even remotely accurate, the space will continue to grow. Now you're going to need scale, sourcing opportunity, reputation. We have to deliver on what we say we're going to do. Technology we haven't even talked about. We could do a whole session on that. Technology, you have to be able to deploy technology in very unique ways, especially with AI. So I think this is going to continue to grow. It won't always be perfect, but I do think, again, this audience at the margin will shape the nature of private capital for the next decade.

    2025-04-30 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business LIVE: Carlyle Group CEO Harvey Schwartz · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  2. No, well, I think for the industry, again, if we're talking about an industry that's been around for 40 years. So in the scheme of economic history and business development, it's quite short. And of course, private credit, that's a 15, 18, 20 year phenomenon, even a shorter period. Asset-based finance becoming a big part of the industry isn't even a newer phenomenon. I think a lot of it will depend on really what does happen with wealth. That is the pool of capital that's now coming in, and I think it will continue to drive opportunities. It will be super efficient. The more capital is available to the market, and companies will continue to take advantage of it. So again, companies don't decide to stay private because they just love being private. They decide to stay private because they may like being private, but also because it's the most efficient way for them.

    2025-04-30 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business LIVE: Carlyle Group CEO Harvey Schwartz · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  3. The data still looks quite positive and so we would believe that rates should stay stable higher, but we really have to see ultimately how the combination of tax policy, deregulation, tariffs, how all this comes together. And I would say we're just in an environment right now with much more increased uncertainty. And I think when we came in, the new administration, I think there was this real sense of, hey, we have certainty. We got to an election with certainty. Then we had, okay, we're going to get tax policy deregulation, very pro-business agenda, and now it's been sort of the conversation's been consumed by tariffs uncertainty. And obviously a lot of geopolitical uncertainty still. And so I just think uncertainty is dominating the dialogue right now. But we're not seeing it in the portfolio companies.

    2025-04-30 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business LIVE: Carlyle Group CEO Harvey Schwartz · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  4. Because the global economy and the economy in the U.S. was so strong and we were still saying rates wouldn't come down. Now the markets caught up to that. I would say now it's a question of with the new administration how do the policies ultimately take effect? I think it's more difficult to say at this exact stage what Fed behavior will mean. I also would say like for example in the January-February data what we're seeing is what you'd expect we would see. We saw for example a lot of immediate purchasing in advance of potential tariffs. If you look at the purchasing managers index I think the component of inventories was up 4%. That's all managers doing all businesses doing what you would think they would do. They're basically saying, hey, if prices are going to go up in the future, I'm going to buy now, which of course brings price acceleration into the present, but right now we're not seeing any marginal demand destruction.

    2025-04-30 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business LIVE: Carlyle Group CEO Harvey Schwartz · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  5. Okay, so a lot in that question, so let me unpack it a bit. So first, For those of you who don't know, there's some incredible content that comes out of Carlisle. And he has nailed it. Now he's nailed it because he's brilliant. I'm honored that he's my partner. But he also has all this data. And so when we roll up the data, we get the look inside what's happening in terms of portfolio company behavior, what's happening with input prices. So we could see months in advance if there was like a $1 input item when there was the supply chain problem if that went to like $2. In many cases it did, right? So we all see headline inflation when it was seven, eight, nine percent, but there were input prices that were going up 50, 60, 80 percent. And then we could see that come off. So now to cut to your question, coming into the beginning of this year, all the signals were quite positive. We had EBITDA growth across all the portfolio companies in the US it was up something like 15 last year our portfolio values went up by billions

    2025-04-30 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business LIVE: Carlyle Group CEO Harvey Schwartz · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  6. Extensive, I do think, for again, generically for the audience, I think picking vintages is not necessarily the smartest thing, just like I don't think actually picking highs and lows in the stock market is the easiest thing to do. And I think if you're going to be a participant, you want to be a participant over time.

    2025-04-30 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business LIVE: Carlyle Group CEO Harvey Schwartz · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  7. The trajectory of how capital evolves, it really evolves over decades, Barry. Now, there's a lot of excitement in alternatives, and particularly for the largest firms like ourselves, because it's a growth area, having a global footprint allows you those opportunities. But our team is seeing opportunities all around the world to deploy credit. And actually even before this sort of potential stimulus resurgence in Europe, we were already seeing, I would say, at the margin more opportunities to deploy credit in Europe than in the US. Now, at Carlisle, you can all avail yourself of CTAC, which is basically the best of credit at Carlisle across a spectrum. And again, Zach can give you all the details after the show. But I'm a customer. I own CTAC, and I keep adding to it. And so I think the opportunities

    2025-04-30 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business LIVE: Carlyle Group CEO Harvey Schwartz · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  8. First, I think we should dismiss what I think are some misunderstandings about private credit. There's a lot of discussion about the growth of private credit being potentially systemically risky. I actually think the distribution of capital across private credit banks and other providers of capital actually is systemically reducing, not increasing. But I think that debate is kind of, that discussion has kind of been tested, right? We went through Silicon Valley Bank. We went through nearly 500 basis points of raises in interest rates and increases by the Fed and private credit has been quite durable. I think when you have a lot of capital going into a space, you have to ask yourself, are the people who are stewarding that capital making the marginal capital commitment thoughtfully or is there too much capital? But I think that's about a performance question, not a systemically risky question. And so I think that, again, if you think about

    2025-04-30 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business LIVE: Carlyle Group CEO Harvey Schwartz · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  9. So I would say, well, first of all, the Carlisle insurance credit platform is the largest part of the business today, which most people are surprised by because of the history and private equity. That's the largest portion of our business, almost $200 billion in assets. We're the largest CLO manager super proud of the team. They just were awarded CLO Manager of the Year. It's about $50 billion of assets. So we've been in this business for quite a long time. I would say that

    2025-04-30 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business LIVE: Carlyle Group CEO Harvey Schwartz · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  10. Wealth is focused on this space. Half of all the assets in the world are controlled by wealth, the other half by institutions. Institutions have been participating in private capital for as long as we can remember. And so this shift feels quite natural. I just think as an industry, we have to be really, really thoughtful about making sure that your clients in the end, that we all on our side and are part of the industry what we say we do, we deliver to you so you deliver to your clients because I do think this is, we're in the early days of a transformative capital shift.

    2025-04-30 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business LIVE: Carlyle Group CEO Harvey Schwartz · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  11. Sector. We've been doing this for over 30 years. You wouldn't have necessarily said five years ago this would be the topic around the world given what's happening geopolitically, Europe now committing to spend a trillion dollars. What does this mean? The US has to replace their supplies, our supplies. And so I do think that the capital demand is so high. And while we tend to focus a lot on wealth in the United States, Because I do think the United States has been the leader in terms of private market adoption. I can tell you everywhere in the world I go.

    2025-04-30 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business LIVE: Carlyle Group CEO Harvey Schwartz · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  12. Yeah, you did what you had to do. I think the most dials I ever made was 508 in a day with not a lot of yield. But I would say that Just like certain stocks are not great for every client on the well side and certain other forms of investment are not great for your wealth clients, I think you have to first make a determination about whether or not this is appropriate for your client and where does it fit into your toolkit. I think that there is a really unique role, whether it's in asset-based finance, which is a very fast growing section of the marketplace. We did the largest transaction last year Discover Card, which is an asset-based finance transaction. Whether it's that part of the market or how insurance companies are coming into the marketplace or whether your clients have an interest in getting access to Japan, where we raised a fund last year, or if your interest, for example, is shifting to defense. One of the first transactions Carl did in 1990 was in the defense.

    2025-04-30 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business LIVE: Carlyle Group CEO Harvey Schwartz · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  13. Yeah, so I think, again, for everybody here, for the wealth advisors here, I don't do what you do. And as I said earlier, I was kind of uniquely bad at it back in 1987. And not that that was the same thing. But if you can't sell tax-free municipal bonds at 12% tax-free, you're pretty uniquely bad at something.

    2025-04-30 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business LIVE: Carlyle Group CEO Harvey Schwartz · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  14. ever privately held company IPO in Japan last year, Rigaku. So the public markets are still a fantastic opportunity to provide capital, but the option to stay private for longer

    2025-04-30 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business LIVE: Carlyle Group CEO Harvey Schwartz · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  15. in wealth, it's the capital that is creating the opportunity for companies to stay private. It's not as though companies woke up one day and said, geez, I wish there was private capital. I'd like to stay private. And so this evolution of the capital markets, I think, is just part of a broader evolution. We didn't have ETFs back in of such significance if you went all the way back to 1987. I can remember prior to 2000, I think it cost you five cents or so to trade a share of stock. So this is all part of the evolution of the capital markets. And the trend to staying private is substantial. Now, having said that, we took at Carlisle in the past six months, we took three companies public. We took standard out public in the United States, which is a aerospace defense MRO. And that was the third largest IPO of the year. We did the largest private equity held IPO in India a few weeks ago, Hexaware. And then we did the large

    2025-04-30 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business LIVE: Carlyle Group CEO Harvey Schwartz · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  16. Shrinking and private companies staying private for longer, this has been in place for decades. If you think about the evolution of capital broadly, and you go back to the fact that Carlisle was founded by David Bill and Dan, they were literally driving past the Carlisle Hotel and decided to name it Carlisle. In 1987, there really was the birth of private equity, which they were part of, and you had venture capital. So you had buyouts and you had seed opportunities. What systematically has happened over the 30 plus year period and certainly from 2000, when you now have companies staying private is the capital available has just continued to grow. So whether it's direct lending, asset-based finance, integration with insurance, the opportunity set, and the capital providers have just continued to expand, whether it's pension funds, now all of you,

    2025-04-30 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business LIVE: Carlyle Group CEO Harvey Schwartz · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  17. So I think you mentioned some really key factors, which I think are contributing. It's always going to be the case that whatever the market environment is, wherever interest rates are, it's going to be the case that that's a contributing factor to how markets evolve. I don't think that's the key driver. If you go back to 2000, I'll get these numbers slightly wrong. I think there was something like 6,200 public companies. Now that number is closer to 3,000. This trend of public companies

    2025-04-30 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business LIVE: Carlyle Group CEO Harvey Schwartz · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  18. Well, after leaving Goldman, I was in a really unique position in my life because I was so fortunate that I didn't have to work right away. But because, as you said, I had a nice resume. People knew of me. I got a lot of opportunities. None of them were compelling until Carlisle came. And Carlisle was compelling for very, very simple reasons. One, I knew the firm. They had been my client when I was at Goldman Sachs. We committed a lot of capital to all those big firms. So I knew the firm. I spent a lot of time with the founders. They're incredible people, David Bill and Dan, both as professionals and as also just generous human beings and leaders. And then I knew the industry. And the secular trends and cyclical trends in this industry, in private capital, are extraordinary. And they've been this way for well over 20 years. And so I knew the industry.

    2025-04-30 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business LIVE: Carlyle Group CEO Harvey Schwartz · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  19. Fear, I was scared, insecure, and I think all that kind of compounded into feeling like, wow, I am alongside all these people who went to these extraordinary schools. And then the only way I could compete I kind of felt was... to just work a lot. I always felt like that was my thing. To this day, that's kind of what I think, although obviously I've had a set of experiences now which give me more confidence

    2025-04-30 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business LIVE: Carlyle Group CEO Harvey Schwartz · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  20. Yeah, that's true. I don't want to overweight the luck thing people would say to me when I say that well you can make your own luck and that's true to some extent you can influence your luck through hard work but okay everybody in this room by being here, you, everyone here, there's prerequisites, right? You're all smart. Everybody's hardworking because that's like prerequisites. That's just table steak stuff. I do think luck and randomness play a lot in life. I'm 61. I was born in 1964 in my life. That's a really good time to be born. Like I don't think you can not acknowledge some of these things. And so, but I will say My early experiences If anything, I would say I was so insecure because I didn't get into college and I barely got out of high school.

    2025-04-30 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business LIVE: Carlyle Group CEO Harvey Schwartz · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  21. Every time you're given responsibility, somebody's making a leap of faith, giving you that responsibility. And along the way people did, whether it was at Citibank, then I went to Goldman Sachs, I had some incredibly... Some incredible experiences of Goman's Acts. I moved around quite a bit after leaving Goldman Sachs in 2018. Ultimately, Carlisle called Carlisle calling's luck, right? It's just a random thing that I end up sitting here with you. And so I think that it's really hard to...

    2025-04-30 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business LIVE: Carlyle Group CEO Harvey Schwartz · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  22. I asked someone, I worked with them at Citibank, and I was so impressed with how intelligent they were. And this will give you a sense of how clumsy I was still. And we went out one night and I said something to the effect of, G, you're so smart, I would have thought you would have accomplished more by now in your life, which is so horrible, cringeworthy thing to say to someone, but he was so gracious. taught me a lot in that moment because he was gracious about it, didn't get offended, and he said, you know, Harvey, you'll learn in your life careers are 50% luck, 50% skill. And that always stuck with me, Barry, because I don't know that it's 50% luck, but for me, I got to say, like, there are days it feels mostly 90-10 or 99.1 that it's luck. And I think along the way people...

    2025-04-30 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business LIVE: Carlyle Group CEO Harvey Schwartz · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  23. Well, I got really fortunate. At a tough point, my daughter was one year old and I was kind of really running out of money. At one point I thought, geez, I might have to file for personal bankruptcy, but I didn't really know what that meant, but I knew it was a thing you did when you ran out of money. And again, a friend to me, a huge favor and got me a position in what they referred to as the back office at Citibank in 1989. And that was really the first time I'd say I was on a track that would begin to look more conventional, although obviously starting in the back office, I was hired as a temp. I eventually became a full-time employee, and then I went into the credit training program at Citibank. But I will say, right around that period,

    2025-04-30 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business LIVE: Carlyle Group CEO Harvey Schwartz · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  24. Yeah, October 19th, down 580 points. There I was naively cold calling people. By the way, back then, there were like real phones. You had to actually push buttons and stuff. And I had this little cushion thing. You would keep your head like this. And you were mostly crippled by the end of the day. So, yeah, it was a bad time to try. And I didn't do very well at it. I had no money. I owed everybody in the world money. I borrowed a lot of money to go to school, friends, anyone I could find. And, you know, it was pretty stressful.

    2025-04-30 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business LIVE: Carlyle Group CEO Harvey Schwartz · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  25. Yeah, maybe a little bit with timing my first day coming out of the training program was the day the stock market fell true.

    2025-04-30 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business LIVE: Carlyle Group CEO Harvey Schwartz · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  26. very clumsily. I didn't know Rutgers certainly back then much better now. I didn't know there were JP Morgan's in the world or Morgan Stanleys or Goldman Sachs. I didn't even know where Wall Street was. I'd never been to Wall Street first time I went. I was surprised it was such a little street. I just pictured a much bigger street. So I was pretty naive about as naive as you could get. Through a friend, I took a job at a firm called JB Hannauer. For those of you old enough, it was a municipal bond firm back in the day. This is 1987. And just show of hands, how many people know what it means to work on a draw. Yeah, so I worked on a draw, which means you got paid $1,000 a month, but effectively it was a loan and you owed it back and you cold called and you tried to build your book of business. And I proved to be uniquely bad at this.

    2025-04-30 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business LIVE: Carlyle Group CEO Harvey Schwartz · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  27. that are kind of hard to conceive and Rutgers today I think the stats are well over half the students still get financial aid sort of one in three or first ever go to college and their family it's an amazing institution and for someone like me gave me all the opportunity in the world

    2025-04-30 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business LIVE: Carlyle Group CEO Harvey Schwartz · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  28. There's a thing called Nautilus. I was the person that trained people in the gym, which is a sort of hard for you to imagine looking at me today, but I had hair, thinner, better, more fit. But anyway, Linda and her husband used to come through, and I just got to know them. And she said, it was a Rutgers graduate. But she wasn't an influential person like Vueberry. She encouraged me to apply. I didn't get in because of my track record in high school. And she was so incensed by this that she called the university and basically convinced them to interview me and write an essay about why I was such a screw up in high school and Rutgers, which is an incredible institution, changed their selection, allowed me to go to school. And that's why, you know, Linda's an angel and the more family's angel. All these people really intervened in my life. I think in ways.

    2025-04-30 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business LIVE: Carlyle Group CEO Harvey Schwartz · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  29. Yeah, no, of course. And yet another successful person from New Jersey right here live. So now it was a complex. For those of you who are old enough, a health instructor at a squash club in Chatham, New Jersey, Fernando, New Jersey.

    2025-04-30 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business LIVE: Carlyle Group CEO Harvey Schwartz · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  30. In March of that year, I signed myself out of high school and I had called some friends in California and I asked if they would let me come live with them. And so I moved to California. I actually graduated high school out there. Those are like, there were a lot of angels, but that family was an extraordinary angel. They took me in, but I didn't apply to any colleges. And then eventually Linda came along and encouraged me to apply to Rutgers. That was the next year.

    2025-04-30 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business LIVE: Carlyle Group CEO Harvey Schwartz · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  31. That was like one of the early angels. So really talked as much about this publicly so I apologize if anybody finds it not interesting And I realized I'd missed so many days of school. Was a chance I wasn't going to graduate. Certainly, my grades were not doing well. My father and I were deteriorating pretty quickly. And when I turned 18, In March of that year. It was my birthday last week, by the way.

    2025-04-30 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business LIVE: Carlyle Group CEO Harvey Schwartz · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  32. good chance I wasn't going to graduate. I didn't apply to any colleges, but I got super fortunate. And, you know, Chris was really generous. When she introduced me, she referred to as a mentor, and I think you do have mentors, hopefully everyone here has mentors in your life. I had people that were more like angels. that really intervened for whatever reason they did to helped me at certain crazy pivotal times in my life. One was a woman named Linda. She encouraged me to apply to Rutgers. I wasn't going to college. I applied. I didn't get in. Linda, who's like not an influential person?

    2025-04-30 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business LIVE: Carlyle Group CEO Harvey Schwartz · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  33. Treatment wasn't as good, an understanding wasn't as good, the stigma of mental health related issues and severe mental health is still an extraordinary problem everywhere in the world, certainly in our country. But back then it was even much worse. And so my mother passed when I was 14. I don't want you all to feel like you have to go to therapy with me and Barry, by the way. But my mother passed when I was 14. And then it was me and my father, and it wasn't a particularly healthy environment. And so I basically ended up doing really, really badly. In high school, I didn't Barely graduated by the time I was a senior I think it was like right around Christmas when I was a senior in high school in New Jersey. I'd missed 27 days of school, which by the way, if you actually do the math is super hard to do.

    2025-04-30 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business LIVE: Carlyle Group CEO Harvey Schwartz · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  34. Bruce Springsteen, there's a couple. But what Barry's getting at is a little bit unconventional. I mean, everybody has the complexity of their life story, but for me, I did grow up in New Jersey. I too. Parents who were quite educated but tragically they suffered from severe mental illness. My mother suffered from what we would call today bipolar disorder and my father suffered really quite tragic schizophrenia which sort of over time really just completely consumed him and this is many decades ago and so

    2025-04-30 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business LIVE: Carlyle Group CEO Harvey Schwartz · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  35. People today. Zach Foreman, I don't know if Zach Foreman's in the crowd anywhere. Zach, can you stand up? Zach leads our effort down here. So everybody should go to Zach afterwards. And then we have a boot. So, hey, I'm done with my advertising for the day. But I feel like I've accomplished it.

    2025-04-30 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business LIVE: Carlyle Group CEO Harvey Schwartz · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  36. Sure. Well, first of all, Barry, thanks for doing this. Great to see you again. Everyone, fantastic to be here. This is such an amazing venue. So Carlisle today is about $450 billion of assets spread across private equity real estate infrastructure credit, insurance, and secondaries and co-invest. For all of you in the audience, there are a number of solutions you can show your clients, CTAC, which is the best of credit, CAPM, I'm sure we'll get into some of this, which is our secondaries co-invest business. And towards the end of the year, we'll be launching our private equity solution. But I would say for me, I've been at Carlisle for two years, been an incredible privilege. The firm was founded in 1987 by David and Dan, who really have created a culture which is extraordinary in terms of the people.

    2025-04-30 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business LIVE: Carlyle Group CEO Harvey Schwartz · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source