YouSaid · the spoken record

Hugh Hendry

lines on the record: 45
first: 2024-05-09
most recent: 2024-05-09
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

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“You know, but I mean it's real in the sense that you've not God capital on the run, you've not got robber barons. Dubai and the Seychelles, it only exists because the US Treasury and the administration are looking the other way. I don't know why they look the other way. I really don't because it's against the rule. It's like, look, you know, there's a war. We're like, we're kind of funding the Ukrainians against it and we should be really tight and should be no slippage. And yet we let them slip into Turkey, into Dubai and into the Seychelles. I would like, again, you're staying. You're staying in Russia. Call me when you're more polite to your neighbors.”
2024-05-09 · Odd Lots · Hugh Hendry on the "Terrifying" Yen Move, and Risk of "Mad Max" Deflation · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I mean, the Miami thing is the same thing. It's South America. It's taking all of your wealth and really their kind of robber barons, the confiscation of the good folks' money and getting it out of places like Venezuela. And it resides. That's Miami. I'm an LA person because I was going to say LA is a real place, which is kind of a LA.”
2024-05-09 · Odd Lots · Hugh Hendry on the "Terrifying" Yen Move, and Risk of "Mad Max" Deflation · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I'm not going to say they can't come to St. Bars, but actually I'm thinking my Christmas client actually is Russian, so some of them can get in. But Abramovich, he came in and he laid down $80 million in February 2008 and didn't put St. Bartol on the map. But, you know, that was like a huge investment and property prices are absurd, really absurd. I just got divorced and had to do evaluation on the portfolio. I mean, it's just insane. St. Bars is kind of like Bobby Digital. Forgive me, I call Bitcoin Bobby Digital. It's gold as Bobby Brother or something.”
2024-05-09 · Odd Lots · Hugh Hendry on the "Terrifying" Yen Move, and Risk of "Mad Max" Deflation · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, I mean, you know that Paul McCartney wings is banned on the run. I mean, it's the Russians on the run. They're fleeing, go to Dubai, and it's the same thing. From the beginning, when I was writing those letters, like, you want to solve Russia? Because that's the time of the emergence of the oligarchs. I was like, you want to solve Russia. You want to bring freedom? I mean, it's not for us to solve Russia's for them to solve it, right? But if we want to stop them impinging and being annoying, being noisy neighbors, the number one thing you do is you say to all the rich oligarchs, no visas. You can't come to St. Bars. You can't go to Seychelles. You can't go skiing in the Swiss Alps or in America. Enjoy the motherland. Okay. Talk to the boss when you sort it out. You know what? We'll look at your visa again. And that's, so they can't come.”
2024-05-09 · Odd Lots · Hugh Hendry on the "Terrifying" Yen Move, and Risk of "Mad Max" Deflation · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“In a hurry, but you spend a billion, and what happens is you've not created wealth. So if you were, if you actually had, if you were a corporation, you'd have to market, because let's say you're taking a token, it's a toll bridge, okay, and you do the DCF, you're going to quickly work out that your MPV is like half a billion, so you're in a half a billion deficit. The half a billion deficit doesn't get measured in GDP. You measure the billion. And so this is why the strategy doesn't work. Because sure you get GDP. But where's the stock market? And where's the stock market in America? Because what do we do? We actually go, hey, return on capital. Pause the MPV. We're not, we're in it to win it, right? And so we get less GDP, but we get the best stocks and the best stock market. That's the fundamental flaw.”
2024-05-09 · Odd Lots · Hugh Hendry on the "Terrifying" Yen Move, and Risk of "Mad Max" Deflation · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Again, I think it's my accent. You're not hearing me. They are magnificent. These countries are magnificent at creating GDP growth. They're incredible, right? But is GDP growth at the expense of wealth, right? So let me give we got a bridge that's going to cost us a billion dollars. We're going to link two communities and let's say it's in America and it's like and it's in the Bay Area and the average per capita income of the two cities is $150,000, right? And so, and you're going to cut like 15, 20 minutes in the daily commute of all those people. People with that level of wealth, cutting time is good. It's productive. It's going to add utility to their lives. It's an NPV positive. It has net present value. So the value of the billion that you spend, maybe it's $2 billion. If you join up two Chinese communities and the average per capita consumption is $8,000, if you're on $8,000, you ain't in a hurry.”
2024-05-09 · Odd Lots · Hugh Hendry on the "Terrifying" Yen Move, and Risk of "Mad Max" Deflation · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“No, it was really quite. I like struggling slow. It was really grim. I should have been buying. The SP. The SP had fallen at 65% in March 2009. And instead, in Wuhan, where was I in Wuhan? I was in the wet market where the whole COVID thing. I should have been buying the S&P.”
2024-05-09 · Odd Lots · Hugh Hendry on the "Terrifying" Yen Move, and Risk of "Mad Max" Deflation · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So, my last, I tell you in terms of again formative and with the investment letters, not the last time, but March 2008, I took a slow train from Wuhang to Beijing. It was quite grim. Not the highest.”
2024-05-09 · Odd Lots · Hugh Hendry on the "Terrifying" Yen Move, and Risk of "Mad Max" Deflation · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And then, like, so when I was peak, peak bearish, I was twelve years out. Literally, it was 2011. I launched a credit fund. I'd have made a billion bucks, a billion bucks, if I had been 12 years in the future. So I was wrong, but I want to tell you my timepiece was 12 years out. And the time”
2024-05-09 · Odd Lots · Hugh Hendry on the "Terrifying" Yen Move, and Risk of "Mad Max" Deflation · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So you get value investors, growth investors. I'm a time investor, would you believe? And it was only really very recently I came to understand the Chinese, like, what do you call it? Like your horoscope and like the pursuit and the investigation of heavenly bodies around the sun, right? like Pisces and all that kind of stuff. We use the rotation of the Earth's rotation around the sun, yeah. And I believe that takes a year.”
2024-05-09 · Odd Lots · Hugh Hendry on the "Terrifying" Yen Move, and Risk of "Mad Max" Deflation · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I think the end of this bull market is in the next 18 months. And I think the treasuries, I don't think they'll yield 40 basis points. But I think they could get down to like 1.2, 1.5 yields. And then sell them and get out because we'll have to redraw and we'll have to examine and try and create a new monetary order.”
2024-05-09 · Odd Lots · Hugh Hendry on the "Terrifying" Yen Move, and Risk of "Mad Max" Deflation · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I think we're at the end of the most incredible bull market in treasuries, which again absolutely coincided with China and who came in to preserve their currency and believe it undevoured they had to put money into risky US treasuries and they bid it higher. But the bull market in treasuries, it was a double bottom in price terms between 1982 and 1984. If we put that into yield perspectives, the 10 year peaked at 16%. But in 1984, as the economy came back, it found vigor, people went, you know, the notion recency bisance bison. So the recency biases was strong economy inflation and people sold the bonds again. So 1984, yields peaked at 14. And then that was it, you know? And of course they went to like 40 basis points during the COVID.”
2024-05-09 · Odd Lots · Hugh Hendry on the "Terrifying" Yen Move, and Risk of "Mad Max" Deflation · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So, the US Treasury, no, is not the safety net if there is folly and if there's an incident in the financial sector. It's tapped out. It doesn't have the resource. So we're on our own. And that's scary. And so again, that's why the next move for people is to consider, well, what if they cut and they have to, I actually think it could get so bad that we will go back to the notion of zero interest rates. And I think that treasuries, I mean, I've been so hideously bad. I've been owning leaps on the TLT, the long duration. Now leaps, options, like, yeah, if I got a million dollar portfolio, I'd been spending like $50,000 and then topping it up as I lose money on them and just keeping a lot of time on it. So I probably spent a tenth of my portfolio, I'm underwater. But I own that.”
2024-05-09 · Odd Lots · Hugh Hendry on the "Terrifying" Yen Move, and Risk of "Mad Max" Deflation · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“U.S. treasury is. Until they're not. This is true. So I tell you, so what we're doing is we're flying high without a safety net, okay? So we've been there. We had the, again, I can't believe this is happening. The entire global banking universe went bankrupt. In 200 They were gone, gone, right? But the US Treasury was at like 60% debt to GDP. And they stood in. And they're like, you know what, we got it. We got these fund tokens and we're going to issue lots of these fund tokens and you're going to come back. What happens? And that was your safety net. Where's the safety net now? Like if they tried that maneuver again, people like me would be like, get out of here. We're getting out of like we're not owning these silly securities because you're tapped out.”
2024-05-09 · Odd Lots · Hugh Hendry on the "Terrifying" Yen Move, and Risk of "Mad Max" Deflation · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It's a five before the weaker GDP statistics comes out. So that's still there. There's a fragility there. 4.42. And look, when we get back outings, I mean, if we've got any banking analysts listen to this, can you do your job? Rather than blowing smoke up the CEO, can you say, hey, listen, can you tell me, what is the size of your unmarked treasury portfolio? What is the loss of it? What are you doing? Have you shifted the duration? Can you just talk to the street about it? No one asks. No one like bad news comes out you really, really. It comes out really, really slow and then it stings you. Let's ask the question. So that's there. That's out there.”
2024-05-09 · Odd Lots · Hugh Hendry on the "Terrifying" Yen Move, and Risk of "Mad Max" Deflation · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I mean, It ain't going away. Yeah, extend and pretend and all that thing. So, I mean, you know, I'm not wishing to name and shame, but an organization like Bank of America has, and like its peer group, has an enormous treasury portfolio, which it doesn't mark to market. That is an inducement by the US Treasury to ensure that people are there to buy the treasuries. And so they've got unmarked losses, right? are the same magnitude as their equity and where we are just now is that we started this year and we were going to get four five six interest rate cuts and when you get that the bonds normally kind of come off their ass and kind of rise in value and like their viability gets better okay that ain't happened if anything you're the domestic economy saying we need higher interest rates where's where's the tenure today like it was four and a half we were heading close to”
2024-05-09 · Odd Lots · Hugh Hendry on the "Terrifying" Yen Move, and Risk of "Mad Max" Deflation · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, I mean You know, I wish to remain polite, but it's not a democracy. Civil liberties are, I mean, you know, I don't think that's a contentious thing. You don't really have much in the way of civil liberties. Again, the quid pro quo is, look at your life. You're so much richer than your grandparents. And we just ask for a bit of tolerance. It's like, so you were saying, again, your anxiety about the Chinese and they're going to overtake us. They took the wrong bet, right? Because I was talking to someone like, but what about the Chinese? thousands upon thousands of PhDs. I'm like, yeah, like, I'm sorry again, forgive me, but if you just completed a PhD, my God, you just chose the wrong moment in history. Why? Because we got AI. We got the AI. And the PhD thing, by and large, is the left hemisphere of your brain. If you're listening to this now, the future, and if you want to be rewarded, again, you've got to be kind of like an asset capitalist.”
2024-05-09 · Odd Lots · Hugh Hendry on the "Terrifying" Yen Move, and Risk of "Mad Max" Deflation · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So we had sovereign crisis. The US economy in the third quarter of 2019 grew at 5.6%. What did the Fed do? They cut rates. People like, you guys are clowns. Okay, I'm buying stocks. Stocks again went to the moon. We're at a point where if the Fed, so I think the Fed actually, the Fed only ever cuts when something breaks. And the rest of us saying we're kind of at that point. So if something breaks, the Fed's cutting is going to subjugate the strength of the United States economy, like the interests of it, and asset prices will become intoxicatingly at levels. You've got to remember trees grow tall, but they don't grow to the sky. And we're getting close to the sky.”
2024-05-09 · Odd Lots · Hugh Hendry on the "Terrifying" Yen Move, and Risk of "Mad Max" Deflation · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And it's listening to it's like the Bank of England in 1927 when they were overvalued on the gold standard. We're at four. And I'm like, we're going to be overthrown by the communists unless we can bring interest rates down. And so he went to the Fed and he said, the only way we can bring rates down is if you cut, remember Benjamin Strong, the coup de whiskey and he takes a cut. And what happened? The US stock market went to the moon. It bred instability. So the big drama this year is the Koreans, the Japanese, and I think the Chinese are saying, you actually got to subjugate the domestic strength of the US economy and you got to bail us out. Now, that's a no win. If the Fed does that, like buy 10,000 call strikes on the S&B, it's not going to be there in two months, but that's where it's going to head really rapidly because that's what happened. I get back again to 1990. Remember LTC.”
2024-05-09 · Odd Lots · Hugh Hendry on the "Terrifying" Yen Move, and Risk of "Mad Max" Deflation · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It's a no-win scenario. There's just no win because we got five and a half percent res in the US. We got a currency which is rising. And the rest of the world's like, I'm out of here. I'm checking out. And so the flow that is coming more and more into the US. Now, the Fed's sitting there.”
2024-05-09 · Odd Lots · Hugh Hendry on the "Terrifying" Yen Move, and Risk of "Mad Max" Deflation · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“No, no. And it's back to your anxiety, right? The biggest industry in Europe is automobiles. And I mean, listen to Elon. It's like the Chinese where they are. They wipe you out. You're gone. Okay, right. So you think Europe's going to sit there and go, hey, we're open. We're friendly. Come and wipe us out, right? That avenue is over. The proportion of exports to the Chinese economy, the proportion of exports to the global GDP, we're at levels where it's intolerable for the rest of the world to accept it. The bigger issue is, so here we are. I mean, I'd be invested for like 35 years and I'm saying to you, China going from the size of Turkey to Europe and the avalanche of money and liquidity is why every asset price in America is high. And I think we're now at the, I call it the Obayashi Maru moment, if you remember from Star Trek, when it's in no win.”
2024-05-09 · Odd Lots · Hugh Hendry on the "Terrifying" Yen Move, and Risk of "Mad Max" Deflation · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Now, one of the incentives for them to do it is the quantitative easing in the United States. I actually think it was sabotage for the Chinese because the very polite request was, listen, you've got to revalue your currency should be rising. And why is that a good thing? Because 1.4 billion Chinese people will be richer vis- ⁇-vis the rest of the world and they'll buy our things. I mean, the dreamliners may have some problems just now, but they'll buy more, you know, and we'll work it out. And the Chinese stubbornly refuse to do that. And so if you can't revalue the external price, I think actually quantitative easing coming out of the States and elsewhere revalued the asset prices domestically in China. And so now did they prick the bubble? They've got the biggest down bubble of all time, $60 trillion valuation. And what do you do with that? It's a lot easier if you devalue in dollars as opposed to the local currencies, all the people.”
2024-05-09 · Odd Lots · Hugh Hendry on the "Terrifying" Yen Move, and Risk of "Mad Max" Deflation · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“What they do, they weren't going to leave a legacy of their neighbors having devoured by 40%. So the big elephant in the room, and you touched upon it in your intro, is What if the Chinese come around and go boom and they devour you, right? That would be profound, I would call that Madmax deflesion.”
2024-05-09 · Odd Lots · Hugh Hendry on the "Terrifying" Yen Move, and Risk of "Mad Max" Deflation · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“What are you doing? And it's the Esorpian fable of the scorpion on the frog. The frog's like, I ain't taken. You're just like, no, no, no, you're cool. You're cool. And they get halfway over. And the scorpion like zaps them. He's like, whoa.”
2024-05-09 · Odd Lots · Hugh Hendry on the "Terrifying" Yen Move, and Risk of "Mad Max" Deflation · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Absolutely. So, like, again, heavens, we've got to go back to 1997-98, and we had the Asian sovereign tiger crisis, countries like Thailand, they had too many debts denominated in dollars, and they had to default. I mean, their currency fell 40%. Like again, I mean, why no one's talking about the move in the yen is terrifying. And through this period, what I wanted to concentrate on is at the end, it was like an 18-month period. And at the end, Taiwan, right? Now, Taiwan had no dollar borrowings really tightly like Singapore really well managed economy. And right at the end, Taiwan devalued. And everyone was like,”
2024-05-09 · Odd Lots · Hugh Hendry on the "Terrifying" Yen Move, and Risk of "Mad Max" Deflation · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“We did a stupid tax cut. And right at the very end of this process, the great inflation reduction act, which is, hey, listen, we're going to pay you money to bring great technology and make it in the United States. That's working. And so what's happening today The fascination and the drama of today is the fiscal policies working and the US has been transformed into the economic locomotive for the rest of the world. Now this dollar standard, the mighty dollar, it was not conceived on the basis that the US would be the chief. It wasn't conceived that the US would be at 5.5%. And the ramifications of that are coming through. The Japanese yen incredibly has lost 40%.”
2024-05-09 · Odd Lots · Hugh Hendry on the "Terrifying" Yen Move, and Risk of "Mad Max" Deflation · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So where do we see that? Where do we get that? I mean, maybe that's just cute, okay? But what China does is it's very good at creating GDP, but not wealth. So look at the stock market, right? The stock market's flat, flat for 25 years, and the currencies is weakening. And that's the problem. And so what happens with our savings model, all of it, all of it. And again, to maintain those advantages, they have to push all of their capital into risk-free US treasuries. And unfortunately, Only until the last two, three years, the US, we were fiscally conservative. We should have been running huge deficits. Oh no, you can't do that. We should be running huge deficits. And the Chinese would have funded the rollout of the best trains, the best education, the best healthcare, the best cities, you know, ships that don't crash into bridges and bring it all tumbling down. And instead, whenever we did something.”
2024-05-09 · Odd Lots · Hugh Hendry on the "Terrifying" Yen Move, and Risk of "Mad Max" Deflation · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It's coming. It's coming. And if you look at Ericsson and Nokia today, those prices fell 95% and just they've stayed in the graveyard, okay? Then the Chinese came in, they said the same thing with solar. And now they've come in and they've said the same thing with EV. What are they doing? They're saying we don't need to make money. Like we allocate capital in America in the free world with the sharp jagged knife of you got to make it if you want to stay in the game. China doesn't. That's one of the implicit subsidies.”
2024-05-09 · Odd Lots · Hugh Hendry on the "Terrifying" Yen Move, and Risk of "Mad Max" Deflation · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Your anxiety, I'm here, I've got a boo, I've got a chill pill for you because again, right, so what we're seeing in EV, right? We saw it initially at the turn of this century, again back to my letters and stuff, biggest company in the world for a moment was Nokia. I mean, those kids like listening to Nokia was Nokia, right? Nokia used to make televisions and then they pivoted into mobile phones, right? And then Apple, of course, came. But at the turn of the century, biggest company on earth. And you had Ericsson. And these guys control your G, your network, your 5G, et cetera. Chinese came in and said, wow, that's kind of dope. We want that. And now they own it. And that's why you had all that.”
2024-05-09 · Odd Lots · Hugh Hendry on the "Terrifying" Yen Move, and Risk of "Mad Max" Deflation · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Like boiling the frog, and you like we've warmed up the Chinese citizens, we brought them into these conurbations, we've given them amazing factories, the rise in productivity from taking someone off a field and putting them in a semiconductor fab is insane. And so they're getting paid like 10x what their grandparents got paid. And they're like, hey, you know, this feels good. The thing is, they should be getting paid more. And really where it should be represented is in the exchange rate, the remimbi. Forgive me, I call it the red cabbage. Who wants to eat red cabbage? So back when we had the NAFTA agreement with Mexico and Canada, they devalued their currency to $6.3. And where's the currency today versus the dollar? So you needed 6.3 red cabbage. And today you need like 7.3, which is to say you need more red cabbage. So they've got poorer. Now, that doesn't make sense, right? And then you were talking about...”
2024-05-09 · Odd Lots · Hugh Hendry on the "Terrifying" Yen Move, and Risk of "Mad Max" Deflation · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Because it's a cheat charter. I'm sorry to say it, but I'm so this thing, the Triffin dilemma. You know, they don't have an independent monetary policy. They've kind of caught onto the coattails of the mighty US dollar, right? They have a dirty float. They have a closed capital account. Now, so economics, which is a dire, dire, dire subject, but economics at its heart is really the investigation and the study of how something in chaos kind of tries to return and find equilibrium and clear. And it can be the opposite. It's an equilibrium and it's going to pull apart. And that's what people like me, we're kind of watching that. And the rise, they've done amazing things. They've industrialized. And the reward in economics is you get richer for doing so. The benefits. And they've not done that. And it's kind of like the frog.”
2024-05-09 · Odd Lots · Hugh Hendry on the "Terrifying" Yen Move, and Risk of "Mad Max" Deflation · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Today is the size of the European economy and the markets and my prices were telling me that this long journey was beginning to pick up base and their desire you know like they laid down more concrete they used more steel etc in like ten years than the US economy did in the 20th century you know it was big and that's what I was seeing and I was long it”
2024-05-09 · Odd Lots · Hugh Hendry on the "Terrifying" Yen Move, and Risk of "Mad Max" Deflation · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Absurdly long gold. And again, if you're like a wannabe new hedge fund manager, like I got to tell you, it's like, you ain't going to make it in your first year if you're not making money and you ain't going to make it if you're like making six or seven percent and trying to tell people your sharp ratio is really good. You're going to make it if you find and you concentrate and you take leverage in a rising asset class and it's volatile and you chase the dragon. And that was gold back then. And I'd got gold because gold did nothing, okay? But we'd had the Nasdaq crash. And so, and that was why was all this happening? It was happening because back then China was the size today of the Turkish economy.”
2024-05-09 · Odd Lots · Hugh Hendry on the "Terrifying" Yen Move, and Risk of "Mad Max" Deflation · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“110 bucks in 1980, and it was like 270 bucks by the time the British Treasury got through selling it at the very, very bottom in 2002. Who were they selling it to? I was buying it. I got 15 years of this blessed thing we call speculation because my first calendar year, I made 50%. I'm not glory. What I'm meaning by that is the failure rate in hedge funds. It's like a restaurant. Most restaurants fail. And the return to the survivor is really high. And I got those times where I didn't think I was going to make it. But I was.”
2024-05-09 · Odd Lots · Hugh Hendry on the "Terrifying" Yen Move, and Risk of "Mad Max" Deflation · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Like smelters Yeah, you know, like, I mean, just insanely ugly businesses that had not earned an appropriate return on capital for the longest time. And they were coming alive. And so I used a lot of people on Twitter and stuff in Bloomberg, they throw around charts and they look at a three-month chart. I mean, what is a three-month chart? I'm gradient. Show me everything. I'm looking at 40 years and I'm seeing things which stop falling. And in one of the other key determinants that I was using was things go right, stocks and risk positions. They go right relative to their peer group before they actually go right in absolute terms. And so you've got to lean in there. And so I was beginning to see this immense relative performance. I mean, let me give you an example with regard to another really dumb thing, which is gold. I know that inflames people, but gold had had, what, twenty-five horrid years. It peaked at 800.”
2024-05-09 · Odd Lots · Hugh Hendry on the "Terrifying" Yen Move, and Risk of "Mad Max" Deflation · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, I mean, I am the pig on the Chinese column. And China has been the formative energy and force for my career and the career of all speculators really over the last 40 years. The rise and rise of China has actually, I think, been responsible for what is now the preposterous rise and rise in asset prices. And I try and explain that. But back at the beginning when I was listening to, I was seeing the sheet music on my Bloomberg terminal. I was seeing the chart formations. What was I seeing? I was seeing the most ugly old industrial businesses that no one had wanted to own for twenty years. Everyone was in services and drug stocks, etc. I was seeing the worst businesses and they were coming alive. I traped sick through.”
2024-05-09 · Odd Lots · Hugh Hendry on the "Terrifying" Yen Move, and Risk of "Mad Max" Deflation · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, like you're going to fail. Okay. And so I reverse engineered. I said, why is it in this musical chair game that we call the markets? Why is it that it's not enough to be super, super smart? Because let's face it, everyone out there and listening to this, everyone's got like a really high threshold level of intelligence. And so that's why we come back into my asset capitalist brand. It sounds like cured and stuff. It actually had a function, you know. And, you know, when people would throw up their arms, Sophie, if we were to fast forward into a horror story of late 2008, and Lehman goes bankrupt, etc., and we've all seen the movie, you know, the big short, I mean, I knew all those guys. I was the London operation of that. But when the suit guys are throwing their hands up and they're saying, who would have guessed that? Well, little old me.”
2024-05-09 · Odd Lots · Hugh Hendry on the "Terrifying" Yen Move, and Risk of "Mad Max" Deflation · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Heavens, yeah. What did I learn? I mean, I tell you what I most proud about. It was a form of deduction which I had right at the beginning. Because right at the beginning, this is before the Zuckenbergs and the Amazons where you have a platform. It goes global and you're the richest person on the earth, like Elon, etc. And back then the highest return on intellectual capital was to be a hedge fund manager, you know, like 2 and 20, if not more. And so by logical deduction, you've got to think. You're up against the smartest minds on the planet. Now, of course, when you meet some of these guys and girls, they're like, oh, maybe not, but, you know. But it kind of stands up, yeah. And I kind of concluded that it actually didn't make any sense to try and outsmart the smartest people.”
2024-05-09 · Odd Lots · Hugh Hendry on the "Terrifying" Yen Move, and Risk of "Mad Max" Deflation · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, I mean, it is the diary of a long period of my life. And for, I guess, you know, I take a different step perhaps from the rest of the community. And I gave everything. I mean, it became like a mousetrap. Like people liked it because it was a little bit zany. And then the challenge is each month, you've got to redesign the mousetrap. And so I was always late. I had to be the very last day before I could actually get the thing written. But there's a lot happened over that period. We're talking about the period from October 2002 to October 2017. And, you know, at leisure, it comes at, you know, at all my substack and you get to see it and it resonates and I'm playing with language. And you can then, it's nice, but it's like a game where you can actually, I'm trying to predict the future and you can actually determine with your coffee if I got it right what my hit ratio is. And it becomes kind of fun, I hope.”
2024-05-09 · Odd Lots · Hugh Hendry on the "Terrifying" Yen Move, and Risk of "Mad Max" Deflation · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Separate from my team, but there was a fusion where I had the CIA, I had an intelligence operation, and I said, I'm crazy, challenge me. Let's see if we can find a synth. And so I take a position, I take a small risk position, but when we got, or if we could get confirmation, then we would build and we'd lean into it. So I don't mean just to be a circus freak. There's more to it.”
2024-05-09 · Odd Lots · Hugh Hendry on the "Terrifying" Yen Move, and Risk of "Mad Max" Deflation · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Out of bed I got paranoid because I was risking other people's precious capital using these voices in my head. But the paranoia is a good thing. And that's when I had to call for the spreadsheet. So don't get me wrong. I listened to music and I was kind of.”
2024-05-09 · Odd Lots · Hugh Hendry on the "Terrifying" Yen Move, and Risk of "Mad Max" Deflation · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I'd assign maybe 10 seconds to each chart because it's like 500 and I'd watch and I'd see patterns. And for me, I was becoming like a paranoid schizophrenic because the chars would create voices in my head. And with those voices and the pattern recognition and they were spread and concentrated on particular industries.”
2024-05-09 · Odd Lots · Hugh Hendry on the "Terrifying" Yen Move, and Risk of "Mad Max" Deflation · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I just don't look at Have someone else look, someone has to look at the spreadsheet. So, actually, what I did was. The wonderful Bloomberg and the graphics package. There's a function, forgive me. I can't remember the name now, but I would load the SP 500 and I'd have my designated kind of the images in terms of the moving averages and what have you.”
2024-05-09 · Odd Lots · Hugh Hendry on the "Terrifying" Yen Move, and Risk of "Mad Max" Deflation · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Certainly don't stare at its fridge. I've stared at I mean, Saturday night, there was a wall that really came alive. I'll give out to you on that. I'm going to try that. You should try it”
2024-05-09 · Odd Lots · Hugh Hendry on the "Terrifying" Yen Move, and Risk of "Mad Max" Deflation · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So, what that means is, so I'm on a mission to try and Indication that there's the science of finance. Be left alone, and we should actually embrace the art of the future. It is a creative flow, and you're not going to get there just by clocking up hours wearing a suit and staring at a spreadsheet. You've got to get a little bit kind of creative with it. And so I'm kind of trying to put out my career. I've got my book coming out later this summer. And it's a different path. There are many paths. We only get presented the path with the guy. They're always guys, they're always guys, you know, and they got the ties. And they don't see the future, but they get a lot of airtime.”
2024-05-09 · Odd Lots · Hugh Hendry on the "Terrifying" Yen Move, and Risk of "Mad Max" Deflation · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source