YouSaid · the spoken record

Inigo Fraser Jenkins

lines on the record: 41
first: 2025-07-24
most recent: 2025-07-24
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

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“That have worked are going to carry on in the same way, specifically when it comes down to the really hard questions around helping clients think about kind of governance. And back to this question we spoke about back at the beginning, which is actually what is the real measure risk that we care about? Is that the volatility of the portfolio or is it a measure of purchasing power? And that's the kind of deep governance question that I think is very hard to attack with any kind of systematic process almost necessarily kind of sits outside of that. And so it's those kind of discussions that we're spending a lot more of our time on the clients because we think those are some of the biggest shifts are taking place.”
2025-07-24 · Odd Lots · How to Prepare for a Post-Dollar World with Inigo Fraser Jenkins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, so I think there is a case in May that the bigger structural level that we've been in a certain economic environment for 30 or 40 years and the forces that drove that have run their course or going into traverse. And therefore, some of the rules of thumb that have existed for a long time aren't going to work in the same way. Now, that does not mean that systematic investing suddenly stops working because obviously there are firstly a host of processes that operate over shorter time horizons that don't need to take into account these huge slow moving structural forces. Secondly, it would be almost absurd, I think, to reject any kind of systematic quantitative input given the advances in AI that are taking place and assume that one can sort on working in the same way. So it's not to reject that kind of process at all, but it is, I think, hard to say that the general approach”
2025-07-24 · Odd Lots · How to Prepare for a Post-Dollar World with Inigo Fraser Jenkins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Automation shifts in the last 30 or 40 years. So I think the heart of the macro aggregate kind of question around AI is firstly, what's the quantum of the productivity increase that we can expect? Whether that is enough to offset these downward force and growth elsewhere. And if you are very bullish on the outlook for AI-driven productivity growth, do you necessarily have to be bearish in terms of the job side look? And that's very much an open question at the moment.”
2025-07-24 · Odd Lots · How to Prepare for a Post-Dollar World with Inigo Fraser Jenkins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Displacement of jobs now that's a very hotly debated topic. We simply don't know the answer to that yet. I mean, on the one hand, one could point to 200 years of technological advance and automation, and yet we have almost full employment. There's no evidence to date that there's been a structural trend increase in unemployment through all the automation we've seen since the birth of the Industrial Revolution. Equally, at the same time, the jobs that seem most at risk from AI driven automation are those in non-unionized sectors. And that seems like a different kind of risk than the one perhaps we've seen through”
2025-07-24 · Odd Lots · How to Prepare for a Post-Dollar World with Inigo Fraser Jenkins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“From the things we spoke about earlier in terms of deglobalization and demographics, et cetera. So yes, it seems likely we do get a productivity improvement from AI and the scale of it is hotly debated. But the question is, is that enough to overcome downward forces on growth from the levels of growth that we've become used to for the last 30 or 40 years? And the third element is to what extent does a large productivity gain from AI require significant”
2025-07-24 · Odd Lots · How to Prepare for a Post-Dollar World with Inigo Fraser Jenkins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I think the biggest issue around trying to forecast productivity gains is that with any new technology that comes along, it turns out to be really, really hard to forecast what the impact that has on aggregate productivity and the ability of the economic expression in general and everyone across the street to forecast productivity has been really poor for a long, long time. So I guess we should firstly approach productivity forecasts with a degree of humility and certainly shouldn't rely on huge productivity gains as a justification for”
2025-07-24 · Odd Lots · How to Prepare for a Post-Dollar World with Inigo Fraser Jenkins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And we can try our best to have models for those. And we have certain error bars around them. But the error bars around climate And also AI, I would say two things are just very different from everything else that introduced the sense of radical forecast error in what we're doing and really implies that people need to be thinking about perhaps diversification in a more radical way because we have path error on 10 years horizons that's much wider than it's been historically.”
2025-07-24 · Odd Lots · How to Prepare for a Post-Dollar World with Inigo Fraser Jenkins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“implies a change in the equity outlook 10 years forward that just simply shaves 0.2% per annum of the global equity outlooks. That might not sound like a very big deal. It's certainly smaller than the impact of demographic change or mean reversion on an equity forecast. Having said that, the more recent forecasts are worse than the older forecasts and imply something that looks like a minus 0.5 or minus 0.6% per annum impact on equips at the 10-year mark. And that starts to get to be the same kind of order of magnitude as demographics have on the average return that one should expect. But I'd argue that we go beyond that because the real thing that struck me, it's just the scale of the error bars around these forecasts is huge. So yes, of course we can argue about what globalization and demographics and corporate profitability and labor versus profit share will do to the earnings outlook.”
2025-07-24 · Odd Lots · How to Prepare for a Post-Dollar World with Inigo Fraser Jenkins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So in our book, we spend a lot of time pooling academic evidence on what the effect is of a change in temperature on GDP. Now, the first thing to say is you plot the 28 studies that we looked at in terms of the link between temperature and growth. They're all over the place. There's a big bunch of points. So the first thing to say about it is there's huge disagreement about what the relationship between temperature and growth is. But the trend line through it, if you simply put a sort of average line through it, is downwards. So yes, we can argue about how material it is, but there is a link that seems to be the consensus across the academic work that we looked at that at the margin, a bigger increase in temperature is bad for growth. Again, the question is, how does this matter and how do people kind of think about it? And what's the scale of this? Because the average of all those, you know,”
2025-07-24 · Odd Lots · How to Prepare for a Post-Dollar World with Inigo Fraser Jenkins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“We also have, I think, a need to think about whether there are risks associated with climate. And the specific view that we have on that is that it seems highly unlikely that the world will achieve net zero by 2050 for two different kinds of reasons. One is that it's socially and politically really hard to change behaviors fast enough. Secondly is the power demand of AI. So as far as we can tell, by the end of next year, global data center power demand will be the same power demand as the total power of Japan. So we've basically added a G3 economy onto global power demand. And that will continue to grow. So that implies that we don't hit net zero. The climate science seems to suggest means that it's likely we see a warming greater than two degrees. And then the question is, well, do investors need to care about this? Does this matter either from the point of view of inflation, inflation risk, supply chain risk, or growth rates?”
2025-07-24 · Odd Lots · How to Prepare for a Post-Dollar World with Inigo Fraser Jenkins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So, our view is very kind of specific on this, which is we want to think about what are the big structural forces that act on markets over a five-10-year horizon, and what are things that really affect the fundamental risks that investors face. So in conjunction with these other forces that are happening at the same time in terms of demographic shifts and AI and worries about debt and deglobalization.”
2025-07-24 · Odd Lots · How to Prepare for a Post-Dollar World with Inigo Fraser Jenkins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I think the key argument for gold, and we've been pro a gold allocation in the advice we give to clients for some years, I think the key argument in favor of it is that, look, yes, you want a big overweight on equity strategically, even if it's not that bullish now outlook, but just because that gives you a positive real return. The question is, what do you add around that equity position that helps diversify risk?”
2025-07-24 · Odd Lots · How to Prepare for a Post-Dollar World with Inigo Fraser Jenkins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yes, although the risk, of course, is the lost opportunity that becomes because in the last 30 years, obviously, that would have been an appalling call.”
2025-07-24 · Odd Lots · How to Prepare for a Post-Dollar World with Inigo Fraser Jenkins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Although maybe one should say that if you're buying it because you're frightened of some really risk-off event, then a zero real return may not be such a bad thing”
2025-07-24 · Odd Lots · How to Prepare for a Post-Dollar World with Inigo Fraser Jenkins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, so there's a broad range responses, and it's not as simple, I guess, in future thing as perhaps with hindsight it was over years when both bonds and equities produce positive returns and had negative correlation between them. I mean, thinking as a real asset for me, number one is global equities. I mean, as long as inflation is only moderately higher and not much higher, then there is strong evidence that equities behave like a real asset and produce real returns. And that's a liquid asset class. So that comes number one. Alongside that, there are a range of other real assets as well, be it real physical assets, or be it areas of private assets, for example, kind of private debt that has a floating rate nature attached to it. It can be in real assets in the form of real estate, farmland, et cetera, things like that. And then there's gold. So gold has a long run real return of the last 200 years of plus 0.2% per annum, as far as we can tell. So it's very small number.”
2025-07-24 · Odd Lots · How to Prepare for a Post-Dollar World with Inigo Fraser Jenkins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Again, but just to stress, I do think that the US market and global equities are going to produce weird positive real return, but valuations today are high. So I would argue that yes, one can outline a narrative that there does not need to be a shift back to structurally lower levels of valuation because of where we are in real rates, because where we are in terms of the persistence of profitability for some of the most profitable firms, I mean, all these things are justify valuations where they are. But to justify a shift upward in valuations, which I think is what you're kind of getting to be a question, I think that would just be really tough. So yes, I can get to a positive return outlook, but yes, that's driven by views on where real earnings go, not by multiple expansion. I think that would be a hard call to make.”
2025-07-24 · Odd Lots · How to Prepare for a Post-Dollar World with Inigo Fraser Jenkins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I mean, I think it's a possibility. I mean, I'm not sure that's enough to turn one super bullish in terms of long run returns.”
2025-07-24 · Odd Lots · How to Prepare for a Post-Dollar World with Inigo Fraser Jenkins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“At the same time that there is this concern about fiscal sustainability and there are geopolitical forces which are very strong to try and find dollar alternatives. That, I guess, sort of feeds this kind of view that perhaps the dollar has less of a safe haven status than it did before. I mean, the big caveat is it depends what kind of risk we're talking about here. I think if we're talking about general business cycle risks, then people, you know, I think generally do take the view now compared to say a year ago that the dollar is more risky. When things get really bad and when there's a geopolitical shock, often in a quite short-term in nature, thankfully, then you still see people flee the dollar and the dollar rally in the short term over potentially large shocks.”
2025-07-24 · Odd Lots · How to Prepare for a Post-Dollar World with Inigo Fraser Jenkins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Foreigners of US debt. And okay, it looks like that's been backed away from my suggestion and certainly hasn't come up in meetings for a long time, so maybe that's not going to happen. But just the fact it was raised”
2025-07-24 · Odd Lots · How to Prepare for a Post-Dollar World with Inigo Fraser Jenkins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“There are two avenues here. I guess one avenue again is back to this topic of fiscal sustainability. And if there is no appetite across parties to really meaningfully change that fiscal contradictory, then one is left with this kind of question of how sustainable is the debt? Can this be kicked down the road? What are the ways out? And ultimately, I think that inflation is the most likely route. I think you have to be hugely optimistic about the growth. that can come from AI in order to have a view that there's an alternative way out. And the second, I guess, is this question of trust in the US from the point of overseas investors. And certainly there have been points where that's been shaken. So I was doing a series of marketing tours around global clients at the point where all the discussions taking place about should there be some kind of Mara Lago accord and potentially changing the status.”
2025-07-24 · Odd Lots · How to Prepare for a Post-Dollar World with Inigo Fraser Jenkins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I mean, the good news, at least in that, is that people can choose how they want to take that risk, how they want to partition it, what kind of risks do they believe in, what risks are consistent with the liquidity that they need and the time horizons they have and the beliefs they have, et cetera, et cetera. But in this tension between the two different kinds of risk, I think is that need to preserve a purchasing power that is the real focus. And that is a shift in governance ultimately for many investor types.”
2025-07-24 · Odd Lots · How to Prepare for a Post-Dollar World with Inigo Fraser Jenkins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And even though I'm aware that's a horrible thing to have to explain to people, and it might sound very cavalier at a point when the shillope is 35 times, and I'm not spelling out, particularly you can't bullish a long-term outlook. But I think you'll have no choice. You have to think about... option is to underperform inflation and that is more painful to people.”
2025-07-24 · Odd Lots · How to Prepare for a Post-Dollar World with Inigo Fraser Jenkins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I mean, ideally one would care about both. It depends how many degrees of freedom you think you have. Because unfortunately, if the expected real return across assets is going to be generally lower, if the correlation amongst them is generally higher, then eking out a certain level of real return becomes much, much harder. So I think actually there ends up being a direct tension between the measure risk as expected all of the portfolio versus preserving purchasing power. Because if the thing that really matters to you in the long run is preserving purchasing power, I would argue that actually you probably have to take more risk in the sense of expected vol.”
2025-07-24 · Odd Lots · How to Prepare for a Post-Dollar World with Inigo Fraser Jenkins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“10 years, and I would suggest that for nearly every investor, if they think about it, ultimately it's the latter of those two that's a much bigger issue”
2025-07-24 · Odd Lots · How to Prepare for a Post-Dollar World with Inigo Fraser Jenkins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Now, I'm absolutely not suggesting that we face a bearish outlook, but I think we do face a harder outlook, an outlook where there are multiple structural forces that imply the level of inflation will be somewhat higher and somewhat more volatile. Given the constraints on growth that we spoke about in terms of demographics, et cetera, given where we are in terms of the valuations across most asset classes being high, the likelihood is that the real return achieved from the portfolios that have done well for many decades is going to be much, much lower. And so it raises this really fundamental question, which is actually, what is the objective of most investors? Is the objective to maximize return per unit risk, or is it to preserve real returns? Or another way of thinking about it is, what is the definition of risk that's ultimately relevant here? I mean, is risk the expected volatility of my portfolio the next 10 years? Or is risk the risk of a loss of purchasing power over the next?”
2025-07-24 · Odd Lots · How to Prepare for a Post-Dollar World with Inigo Fraser Jenkins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Think that's a strong narrative that will carry on for a long time because people have been very used to an environment where for decades and decades inflation has been benign. It's been relatively low volatility of inflation and inflation's been going down. And at the same time, we've seen strong returns, both from equities and from fixed income assets most of the time and equities and fixed income are managed to have a negative correlation there between them. And so the overall return versus risk that you've achieved in real terms has been very strong.”
2025-07-24 · Odd Lots · How to Prepare for a Post-Dollar World with Inigo Fraser Jenkins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And people have backed away from that. So it doesn't seem to be an immediate concern right now. But three very different things pointing the same direction, which is for there to be somewhat less trust in the dollar as a safe haven. The biggest thing in its favor, though, is that growth in the US seems likely to be stronger than growth in other regions. And the lack of another alternative. Means the outflows are going to be slow, I think. So, this is a drip freed story that sits in the background, I think, for many years to come.”
2025-07-24 · Odd Lots · How to Prepare for a Post-Dollar World with Inigo Fraser Jenkins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“But they come from, I guess, a different basis. So, one is the concern around fiscal sustainability, as we discussed. So that, yes, it's certainly a concern, but you never know what the timing of that's going to be. Separate from that is a more geopolitical imperative, which is the need for countries which are rivals to the US to try and de-dollarize in some way. Now, the problem is there is no viable alternatives. That means that the flow into other alternatives is going to be slow. We obviously seen this in the increased bidding by central banks for gold. I think that could spread to other kind of assets as well. But that's a sort of non-market driven, more geopolitical concern that can carry on. And then you have specific investor concerns when there have been suggestions from the US administration that perhaps we can apply some kind of taxes or charges on foreign holders of U.S. assets. And that has certainly grabbed attention.”
2025-07-24 · Odd Lots · How to Prepare for a Post-Dollar World with Inigo Fraser Jenkins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“more dollar risk has been priced at least they're in episodes of that what i think would really change this though and make it more of an immediate concern for people is if there were large flows out of us bonds from institutional investors now there's been a lot of talk about this there's been a lot of coverage of it i've been asked about it in many many meetings but so far as far as we can tell that is much more talk than actual flow i mean there have been episodes for example where the japanese pension system or elements european pensions have been selling dollar bonds but the numbers are very small in the scheme of things so so far what you're still seeing is a demand for safer liquid assets is still a dominant we have forces but that's the thing that we really look for for a change i mean i think one thing the background here is one has to bear in mind there are some very different kinds of risks here that are all being conflated and they point in the same direction”
2025-07-24 · Odd Lots · How to Prepare for a Post-Dollar World with Inigo Fraser Jenkins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“First of all, I've got to pick up in terms of relationship dollar and other assets. And so you've seen just the last few months episodes when a dollar has declined at same times that bond yields have gone up, i.e. is a more risky environment and the dollar hasn't behaved in a safe haven asset in that kind of environment. You've also seen”
2025-07-24 · Odd Lots · How to Prepare for a Post-Dollar World with Inigo Fraser Jenkins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Given the massive uncertainty about how that risk is perceived in the market versus demand for liquidity, I think one's just left with a kind of directional answer saying, well, yes, at some point the yield curve should steepen, but it's very, very hard to make a tactical kind of call around that. I think perhaps a more pertinent way for investors to actually think about that in practical terms is that it means that the dollar is less of a safe haven asset but than it was before. And that's the key point really. It's not so much in terms of coming up with a particular return forecast on a dollar being different from where it was, say, six months ago. I think it's become almost consensus across the street that people are now more negative on the dollar than they were, let's say, six months ago. But I guess what's interesting is the riskiness of it and the idea that risk the dollar are now more correlated with the risks to other risk assets. And so that implies a different approach the way people should form portfolios.”
2025-07-24 · Odd Lots · How to Prepare for a Post-Dollar World with Inigo Fraser Jenkins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Budget. And then he goes back and looked at previous examples of great powers that have seen this kind of crossover take place and bad things happen and whether that is the example of the UK or the Ottoman Empire or the Habsburgs, a whole series of historical episodes have led to great powers no longer being able to project hard power if the debt service cost is much larger than the defense budget. Now the interesting example that I guess is vaguely relevant from that, is most relevant is the UK in 1920 the debt service cost became much greater but our defence budget that had a big impact on the ability to project hard power now what's interesting is UK managed to reverse course and actually end up with a defence budget again larger than interest service costs and debt but it did so through inflation depreciation and through the loss of reserve currency status which I guess is the kind of key thing that makes irrelevant today so i guess”
2025-07-24 · Odd Lots · How to Prepare for a Post-Dollar World with Inigo Fraser Jenkins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Steeper yield curve. The problem is that so far, those fears have been utterly swamped by the demands that investors have for liquid assets and safer liquid assets. So you have seen attempts to price sovereign risk. Yes, arguably in April in the US a couple of years ago in the UK around the LDI crisis prior to last French election If you get these sort of episodes where the market tries to price sovereign risk But it's very hard to know at what point that becomes a problem because this is a can that obviously can be kicked down the road a long way. There was a fascinating paper published by Nile Ferguson earlier this year where he made the argument that basically it's not net debt to GDP that really matters it's the relative size of the debt service cost compared to defense budget and the reason that seems like a relevant thing to talk about is last year was the first year where the US service cost on debt exceeded the US defense”
2025-07-24 · Odd Lots · How to Prepare for a Post-Dollar World with Inigo Fraser Jenkins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Keep being asked this question by investors in pieces. I bet it's been a common question really for the last a year or so. So yeah, you're right in saying that the level of net debt to GDP is the same as it was in World War II. I guess the first thing to say about that is not just a US problem. That's actually a G7 wide problem. So G7 debt in terms of net debt to GDP is back to where it was at the end of World War II. Now, of course, he's been getting there for some time. It's been rising really kind of 30 years and that hasn't mattered in an environment of falling interest rates. But if there has been a definitive turn in the interest rate cycle, then that obviously starts to become a problem. People like to fret about these debt levels and certainly other things equal, it implies that sovereign issuers, including the US, are more risky than they were before. And so you could say, well, maybe there should be a pricing of sovereign risk and a, should be.”
2025-07-24 · Odd Lots · How to Prepare for a Post-Dollar World with Inigo Fraser Jenkins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Going to shrink quickly at about 1% per annum between now and 2050. So, yes, I mean, other forces are happening in parallel with this kind of clearly. But, you know, as a base level effect, that does change one's view on what growth rates look like. But interestingly in that context that, yes, from an absolute perspective, that's telling us growth slows down. But back to the other thread that you started this podcast with in terms of the US exceptions in point, although growth is slowing in the US, the base assumption that we have and the most forecasts have is working age population does still grow ever so slightly. And that is a better prognosis than, say, in Europe, in Japan, in China, where it's shrinking outright.”
2025-07-24 · Odd Lots · How to Prepare for a Post-Dollar World with Inigo Fraser Jenkins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And I'd argue that even before you're going to get into the issue around deglobalization, that demographic shift alone undoes a very large part of this increase in the global workload pool, but that we've seen through the process of globalization since the 80s. Now, people can get very negative about this, but it isn't an outlook that implies a bearish way of prognosis for the future. But it certainly changes the base case where you think kind of growth lies. So for example, if you look at the sort of prognosis from here onwards, we have an outlook of the next of 10 to 15 years where on the UN population data at least, the US working age population is still going to grow, but it's going to grow much more slowly than people have been used to in the last 30 years. So it'll grow at about 0.2% per annum. But in Europe, the working age population is going to shrink at about half percent per annum. In China, it's really...”
2025-07-24 · Odd Lots · How to Prepare for a Post-Dollar World with Inigo Fraser Jenkins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yes, so the changes there, I'm certainly having very rapidly. In terms of context of past changes of scene. And I think that people just need to be aware of just the scale of the support, the demographics has given to growth rates over the last 30 or 40 years. We've seen this extraordinary period when there's been globalization that's brought extra workers into the sort of same environment.”
2025-07-24 · Odd Lots · How to Prepare for a Post-Dollar World with Inigo Fraser Jenkins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Is those longer term issues become things that dominate the near term? And so that's a longer term future has become an issue that a few people face now.”
2025-07-24 · Odd Lots · How to Prepare for a Post-Dollar World with Inigo Fraser Jenkins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I think the interesting thing is there are a bunch of different forces acting at the same time of markets. Now, all these are strategic forces, but the ones talking about in the book, that is. And so they can be thought about as acting over a, say, five to ten year time frame. And of course, anything that involves a conversation on demographics, occasion build just going to close their ears because they think, well, it's so slow moving that surely that's not going to matter. But actually, if it's happening in conjunction with other things, then there is an argument that that strategic horizon perhaps isn't quite so far off as people thought. And when that view on deglobalization, for example, is tied with concerns around debt levels, it's concerned around the shift from globalization. Deglobalization, these are things that have suddenly zoomed up the list of concerns that investors have. And so I'd argue that although one might have thought that these were issues that were sort of further off in some sort of notional strategic future, in fact, what we've seen in the last six months or so.”
2025-07-24 · Odd Lots · How to Prepare for a Post-Dollar World with Inigo Fraser Jenkins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Prognosis the dollar the same as prognosis for US equities, or are these just different things? And in these kind of questions, we really want to get to grips with and offer some views what investors can do about them.”
2025-07-24 · Odd Lots · How to Prepare for a Post-Dollar World with Inigo Fraser Jenkins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, so the book is a way of drawing together in one place some of the views we have on some of the biggest questions that investors face. So exactly some of the issues that you've mentioned already in terms of globalization turning into deglobalization, of population growth turning into a slowdown in working age population and issues around interest rates and inflation being different from the norms of the last 30 or so years. And all these issues sit in the background. We think there's a strong case to be made that some of the norms of the last 30 or 40 years really are unwinding and either run their course or going into reverse. And then one of the particular issues that has really dominated the client conversations that we've had the last three to six months has been this question you've been talking about in terms of US exceptionalism. Has it ended? Does the dollar change in terms of its role as a reserve currency? Is the”
2025-07-24 · Odd Lots · How to Prepare for a Post-Dollar World with Inigo Fraser Jenkins · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source