YouSaid · the spoken record

Jack Bogle

lines on the record: 103
first: 2016-03-11
most recent: 2016-03-11
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

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“In beating the market, but he's an exception, and even his record and in later years deteriorated, but then he meant he ain't gonna he's not running Windsor funny ran it for thirty years, I think, but he's not running it anymore, so managers. So I'd say things like the power of compounding, the beauty of keeping cost low, the need to ignore the market. The need to do something are all things that difficulty. This is a very, very hard business, this business of investment management. And in the long run, we're all average. We're below average, as my thesis suggested, below the market averages. And so don't think it's easy. Don't think you're smarter than anybody else. Just get in the middle, get costs out. don't”
2016-03-11 · Masters in Business · Interview With Jack Bogle: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, I'd say quite a bit. I mean, I was on the Wellingon Fund Investment Committee, and I saw how hard it was to beat the market. I wouldn't have told you that back in 1951. And I worked for a long time with John Neff, who had many, many years of success.”
2016-03-11 · Masters in Business · Interview With Jack Bogle: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“The combination of technology and the knowledge and the spread of this disease called indexing. Is not going to go away. Its habit forming, it's catching, it's contagious. It's spreading.”
2016-03-11 · Masters in Business · Interview With Jack Bogle: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, people have to find their own way in this life, and I've talked to a number of groups at Princeton, one on religion and business, and one on ethics and business, two separate groups, and one is a small seminar and one is a large lecture course. And I get that kind of lecture. Should I not go into the financial business? And I say no, go into the financial business and make it better than it is today. You know, people have to find their own way in this life. I had to find my own way. Barry, you had to find your own way. A lot of bumps along the way. You got to have a little resilience. You got to be able to take defeat and turn into victory. I think that's what I've done, maybe a little bit.”
2016-03-11 · Masters in Business · Interview With Jack Bogle: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Amazing. And then the new guy comes in and sweeps clean. Right. Managers get fired, there is no way, none, zero, that if you own three or four mutual funds, which is typical, there is no way that over seventy years you have even a fighting chance to beat the market, and if you do the index fund, I guarantee you that you will have the same non manager seventy years from now. As the non manager you have today.”
2016-03-11 · Masters in Business · Interview With Jack Bogle: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Let me add this, if I may. What is the objective of the individual investor? It's to have a lifetime of investing, investing for a lifetime, and for a young investor, believe it or not, a twenty-five year old investor has a seventy year life expectancy. Seventy years are going to be ninety five, they'll probably be a hundred. So what's the best way to invest for seventy years? If a mutual fund manager lasts for seven years, that's the average. You're going to have ten of them. The average fund goes out of business ten percent every decade, fifty percent every decade, excuse me.”
2016-03-11 · Masters in Business · Interview With Jack Bogle: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And with so many funds being flashes in the pan, investors are going to learn by their own experience. You know, I was told this was a great fun, and it was a great fun for two days, and that was the end of it. And we overestimate our own ability to pick funds and stocks. We overestimate the ability of our managers to do better consistently. And if people just got the idea of reversion to the mean again and again and again, we were looking at some data the other day, Barry, and if you're in the top quartile for a given five-year period, only 15% of you are going to be in the top quartile in the next five-year period. If you're in the bottom quartile, 15% of you will be in the top quartile in the next period.”
2016-03-11 · Masters in Business · Interview With Jack Bogle: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, you unfortunately need kind of documentation how you're doing things and all that is a little laborious. Because we have to have a lot of lawyers work on this, and you and I have the spirit of fiduciary duty, and they've got to get to the letter of it. And it's more complex than it ought to be. But it's coming.”
2016-03-11 · Masters in Business · Interview With Jack Bogle: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I am very much in favor of the fiduciary rule, although someone else is going to have to work out the details that seem to make it difficult to operate.”
2016-03-11 · Masters in Business · Interview With Jack Bogle: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I guess I'd say not to beat the phrase to death reversion to the mean, I see the industry going back to its roots. Much more of a fiduciary focus.”
2016-03-11 · Masters in Business · Interview With Jack Bogle: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And he had the best record in the business. He goes out and starts his own fund, a Manhattan Fund, gets a huge underwriting. It was $400 million. Nobody's ever said anything like that in this business. The old days. And it had, after 10 years of operation, the worst record in the mutual fund industry. And, you know, I tell people when you think about the nature of securities markets, it's just as difficult to be last as it is to be first.”
2016-03-11 · Masters in Business · Interview With Jack Bogle: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“You know, I always used to wish Bill Miller well. He beat his at Leg Mason, he beat the market. I think sixteen years in a row. And every time I saw him, I'd say good luck, good luck in the future. I liked them. My wishes of good luck didn't do any good at all.”
2016-03-11 · Masters in Business · Interview With Jack Bogle: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I think when I came into this industry in 1951. It was a much better industry than it was thereafter. The big part of that change was in the Gogo era. When we had this idea, we went from investment committees, prudent investment committees. buying blue chip stocks to portfolio managers, comets and not stars. Comets that burn out and their ashes drift gently down to Earth. And that's happened to so many. So many comet managers, I mean you could hardly lose count, you wonder the real superstars just don't stay there.”
2016-03-11 · Masters in Business · Interview With Jack Bogle: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, he was a very gifted man. We were very close, Peter and I. And we had our little disagreements here and there, but overall we were on the same team. And then Bill Bernstein, four pillars of investment wisdom is a wonderful book. And there aren't, it's hard for me to go a lot beyond that, to be honest with you.”
2016-03-11 · Masters in Business · Interview With Jack Bogle: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Of intelligent investor by Graham, I think Bert Malkill, who's a friend of ours and friend of mine and former director here for many, many years. Now, really, the best director we've ever had outside director, his random walk down Wall Street, which is updated every couple of years, is another. David Swenson's book for the individual investor is really superb Peter Bernstein's against the gods.”
2016-03-11 · Masters in Business · Interview With Jack Bogle: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And so he would have been, you know, if people have confidence in you, they bring out your best. And he really did, and Mr Morgan did, and Mr Welsh did, and he young did. So those would be the big names, I think.”
2016-03-11 · Masters in Business · Interview With Jack Bogle: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, you certainly start with Benjamin Graham. He's basically ground zero, and the intelligent investor his book, I had to like the fourth edition, which is much more into the, I think it was nineteen seventy four. Has much more about mutual funds and things of that nature, and he's very clear on that. And so he would certainly be one. mister Morgan. Mr. Morian had a couple of associates, Joe Welsh, the president of the company, and Andy Young, his lawyer, was very quick, quick witted, smart guy, and they all saw something in me. Don't know what it was that gave them confidence that I had the judgment to do the job. And another interestingly enough, another one of my great mentors, was the man when I came on the investment company Institute Board of Governors, he was the chairman, his name was D. George Sullivan.”
2016-03-11 · Masters in Business · Interview With Jack Bogle: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“We told Wellington Management Company how we wanted it run, and they've been running it that way ever since. It meant much more focus on income and income stocks and less focus on gross stocks. And it's worked out. We had a whole renaissance at the Wellington Fund. And he saw a lot of that. And he died the year that book came out. And a little bit before, but I'd shown him the title page with his name on. He was very pleased and very pleased with the revival and renaissance of his wonderful Wellingham Fund. I fell I had a moral obligation.”
2016-03-11 · Masters in Business · Interview With Jack Bogle: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And so he liked it, and he was a Princetonian himself, class of nineteen twenty, and I was the class of nineteen fifty one. And I watched him work. He was very much a Renaissance man, interested in investing, interested in marketing, probably less interested in the detail of the business shareholder record keeping and stuff, which was so much simpler those days. but also our Renaissance men in terms of his interest he was a outdoorsman a hunter a fisherman things that i that i don't do at all but he had a high sense of standards and he as I said at the beginning turned the company over to me when i was 35 years old so i must have had an awful lot of confidence in me and i saved wellington fund finally for him after this catastrophe i described earlier”
2016-03-11 · Masters in Business · Interview With Jack Bogle: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, he was the greatest of my mentors he hired me. He read my thesis out of Princeton. He wrote, I think, a little bit over the top that mister Bogle knew more than he did than we did about the mutual fund industry.”
2016-03-11 · Masters in Business · Interview With Jack Bogle: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“He had just a great sense of business values, and like all engineers, he was, you know, they kind of go step by step. Sometimes it's not all that exciting, but it's always right. Structured.”
2016-03-11 · Masters in Business · Interview With Jack Bogle: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, outside of my teachers, by my first real grown up mentor, was a guy named Jim Harrington. Was a graduate student and engineer at Princeton University, and he was running the athletic association ticket office. And when he stopped doing that, he pulled me out of the crowd and asked me to run it for him. So I learned how to do a job, and I learned how to do it with integrity, and I learned how to do it with on time, and I learned how to do it with keeping my emotions out of it.”
2016-03-11 · Masters in Business · Interview With Jack Bogle: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And if you'd been doing that this year, I think you're a lot better off. This is a tough year so far. Not that bad. I mean, think the SP is off about three and a half percent is really nothing. And although you think it was the end of the world, so it's, don't let the stock market moves distract you. They are a tale told by an idiot these moves, daily moves, hourly minute by minute moves, a tale told by an idiot. Full of sound and fury signifying nothing.”
2016-03-11 · Masters in Business · Interview With Jack Bogle: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Although it's a little bit higher than this today because the market's a little bit hardly inexpensive. But the reality is it's just about the same level it was in 1900. So we had ups and downs, booms, bust in the long run speculative return of zero. So concentrate on the investment return, forget the speculative return, which is very difficult to predict, and just get what business can give you. Now, if you look every day, you're apt to do something. And one of my basic rules is don't do something, just stand there.”
2016-03-11 · Masters in Business · Interview With Jack Bogle: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, investing is about the long term, and investing is about earning what I call the investment return, which is the dividend yield when you go into the stock market and the earnings growth that follows. That's investment return. The market return also has a speculative return, and that is the price earnings multiple, the valuations higher or low when you come in. And if they're high, they're going to detract from that return. And the valuations are low, and they're going to add to that return because the low will, in the valuations, the price earnings multiple, reverts to the mean perfectly. It's about today.”
2016-03-11 · Masters in Business · Interview With Jack Bogle: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Everything was fine. It's going to take a long time to get to 50%, a long, long time, and maybe never gets there. So when you put reality in the face of the theory that if everybody indexes, then it's going to be just not going to happen. But the other thing is people follow this statement by saying if the market gets more and more indexed, then it will be less efficient and we'll be able to beat it more easily. No, unequivocally no some will beat it, some will lose to it if they if the market is less efficient, and the winners and the losers will average the market return. There's no way around that.”
2016-03-11 · Masters in Business · Interview With Jack Bogle: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, it's not in the nature of things that indexing could be 100% of the market. If it were, we would have chaos. There would be no valuations, there'd be no liquidity, there'd be no anything. So what are the chances that indexing get to 100% zero? Right now it's, I think around 28% of the total market, 35% of the mutual fund industry of the equity mutual fund industry. And so it means that that hunk of business is broadly stated, just removed from the turnover level. So if the turnover were 100% and the end market were 50% indexed, the turnover would go to 50%. I came into this business when turnover was 25%.”
2016-03-11 · Masters in Business · Interview With Jack Bogle: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I certainly don't want to disagree with our CEO, but it's not we're squeezing. but were the captive of the market. If the market goes way down, our expense ratio is going to go up. There's no way we could squeeze enough out of our expenses if we had fifteen percent less assets. So we should be very careful about expenses, and we are, I think we're managed in a very strong way, but the expense ratio is a combination of something we can control more or less. How much we spend, and something we can't control at all, the level of the stock market. So the expense ratio A mystery with a cooper dad. Now, if it goes way down, it's going to mean we have very good markets.”
2016-03-11 · Masters in Business · Interview With Jack Bogle: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“If you have six managers, the idea that they will do about the same as another as your competitive group with sixty managers is almost guaranteed to do the same. So what's so good about that? What's so good about that as we think we have a one and a half percent to two percent cost advantage through lower expenses, lower turnover, no sales loads, and we should win by a point and a half a year, not on brilliance, but on cost. That's guaranteed, let me just give you the punchline here. If you win what's so good about one and a half percent? Over ten years you have a twenty percent higher return.”
2016-03-11 · Masters in Business · Interview With Jack Bogle: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, let me give you this very important background about our actively managed funds. And this is what I've been saying since we started Vanguard in 1974. I want our active management actively managed funds to have returns that are relatively predictable, relative predictability relative to their group like large cap value funds or Long-term municipal bond funds, whatever it might be. And the idea would be... Look at those funds and not don't get too far out of line. So you'll have an average if you have six managers, there's where the multi-manager thing comes from.”
2016-03-11 · Masters in Business · Interview With Jack Bogle: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Currency, sure. Well, that is an issue because the dollar has been very strong and it won't be strong forever because international trade has a way of balancing out. When the dollar is strong, the trade balance is change and all that. So I don't think you should count on a strong dollar forever.”
2016-03-11 · Masters in Business · Interview With Jack Bogle: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, something like that. No one was talking this way then, but that could happen again. And I don't think he should be subject to these funny speculative booms that can take place in other countries I just can't imagine that there will be a significant advantage in international companies over US companies. I'm not talking about stocks now. I'm talking about companies and economies over the US. Now, look, I could be wrong on this, and if you think I'm wrong, go buy all the international, all the non-US stocks you want. Buy a non-US stock index, buy individual countries. I wouldn't do any of that.”
2016-03-11 · Masters in Business · Interview With Jack Bogle: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“To make you double But let me just say one more thing in International Just think what would you have done if you had an internationally waited or a non US weighted in 1989. When you had fifty percent, that is to say five percent of your money in Japan.”
2016-03-11 · Masters in Business · Interview With Jack Bogle: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, and let me add to this that just about everybody says I'm wrong, by the way. But everybody said I was wrong of an indexing. I was going to say, that's only going to make you”
2016-03-11 · Masters in Business · Interview With Jack Bogle: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Sure, exactly right, and well, I mean, I'd say it was even cleaner than that we're number one in innovation and technology. We're number one in entrepreneurship. We're still a great manufacturing company, although not as great as we were, and we still have all these new companies being started, existing companies being run more and more efficiently, and more than anything else, or at least as much as all that, we have great institutional structure in this country. We have legal protections. We have courts. We have laws. No one's going to take your stock away from you, confiscated overnight. And shareholder rights are as good as any country in the world, maybe with the exception of, I don't think they do any better, but they don't do any worse, probably Switzerland and Great Britain would be the two big competitors.”
2016-03-11 · Masters in Business · Interview With Jack Bogle: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So I committed the elements in, Barry. I was right. Now, I want to be very clear in this does that mean I will be equally right in the future. I can't imagine it.”
2016-03-11 · Masters in Business · Interview With Jack Bogle: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I don't like the idea. As you would have as much, I don't know, Honduras, as you do in Great Britain. It wouldn't make any sense. But to make matters worse when I made this statement in 1995, we now have 22 years of history. How was the prediction? And the answer is that don't hold me to the exact numbers, but the US portfolio is up about say seven hundred fifty percent. and the non US portfolio is up about $275.”
2016-03-11 · Masters in Business · Interview With Jack Bogle: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“They're a great exporter, but they have issues. And Britain doesn't know what's going to happen if they do the exit from the... European community, and nor do they know what's going to happen if they stay in.”
2016-03-11 · Masters in Business · Interview With Jack Bogle: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Now if returns are developed out of national economic strength, does anybody think that the UK and Japan and France or can do better than the US in the next ten, fifteen, twenty years? I can't imagine it. And now I may be wrong. I'm not saying this is written in stone, but that's forty five percent of the money. So if people knew they were putting 45% of their international money, so-called international non US is a better formulation. In Great Britain, France and Japan, every one of those economies has real problems. The French don't work very hard. The Japanese have a structured and deeply aging economy overburdened by future retirement claims.”
2016-03-11 · Masters in Business · Interview With Jack Bogle: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It worked, indexing worked, and the good market indexing worked in the not so good market, and low cost worked in the good market and also in the not so good market. It has to. So getting back to, I said in my first book, look, US companies get half of their revenues. This is true now at least, a little bit less than, half of their revenues and half of their earnings from outside the US. You have an international portfolio. Why do you want a larger one? And then I say, take a look at what comprises that international portfolio. Your largest investment is Japan, your second largest investment is the UK, your third largest investment is France.”
2016-03-11 · Masters in Business · Interview With Jack Bogle: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I reprint verbatim. And then Mark put red Nantucket red for any changes that took place in the book. Now, on the 10th edition,”
2016-03-11 · Masters in Business · Interview With Jack Bogle: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Interestingly enough, I'll get back to the other subject in a second, but interestingly enough, the first book came out at a market high and the second nineteen ninety nine, and the second book came out at a market low, and I would hardly change one word in the whole second edition. Really?”
2016-03-11 · Masters in Business · Interview With Jack Bogle: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, I'm not, and the reason goes back to when I started to think about it seriously, writing my booklet on mutual funds back in 1993, 94.”
2016-03-11 · Masters in Business · Interview With Jack Bogle: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, the question is an advantage. I mean, tell someone to put all their money in Brazil two years ago. Tell somebody who put all their money in China a year ago is an advantage or is it just kind of a little bubble going on in those countries? Well, you know, but you know,”
2016-03-11 · Masters in Business · Interview With Jack Bogle: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, I guess these smart people have these funds, but they all have both of them. That's right. They don't compete with each other. And there are a whole lot of other wacky things. I mean, I don't think U.S. investors, I'm sure you're going to come to this.”
2016-03-11 · Masters in Business · Interview With Jack Bogle: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“With our ETFs very easily, so the certain marketplace there of people who aren't traders, but like the flexibility that ETFs have, and I have no problem with that. The other part of the problem, however, the ETF problem, is there is a huge amount in number, not so much in assets, of funds that are doing things that no intelligent investor would ever do. Isn't that grand?”
2016-03-11 · Masters in Business · Interview With Jack Bogle: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And that looks like it's roughly seventy percent of the business. And, you know, I don't even need to criticize it. It's kind of irrelevant. When you get to the other 30% of the business, and I may be a little off in my percentages here, but they're individuals. And you know, something like two thirds of them are using ETFs to trade, and one third of them, that would be ten percent of the total all the ETF market, are using them buying and holding them, and maybe using them, you know, we have, it's a funny technical thing in this business, but if you want to put in a thousand dollars a month into a Vanguard fund, and then you want to take out $5,000 at the end of the year to buy Christmas presents, whatever you might want. It's very difficult to do that here because we don't like buying and selling at the same time. You can do it.”
2016-03-11 · Masters in Business · Interview With Jack Bogle: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, the spider is the most widely traded stock in the world every day. And if you look further, this year, which is a little more volatile than most years so far, the dollar volume of trading in ETFs is the same size as the dollar volume of trading in common stocks. Wow. Unbelievable because common stocks are worth about $23 trillion, and the spiders are worth about two. So spiders are turning over at 3,000% a year and stocks are turning over at 200% a year, something like that. So they're trading instruments owned by large institutions. Look at the spider ed that says institutions, here's what you need to trade. It may be irrelevant, but I don't think in the long run, and that has anything to do with the mutual fund business or individual investment.”
2016-03-11 · Masters in Business · Interview With Jack Bogle: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Not, but let's examine the ETF business for just a minute. And that is if you look at ETFs, all the big ones, man, I can't look at all of them, but the big ones particularly and the normal ones are about 70% owned by financial institutions. They're trading them in the marketplace every day. The spider, the S&P 500 ETF.”
2016-03-11 · Masters in Business · Interview With Jack Bogle: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“A good idea. What kind of a nut would want to do that? I mean, there must be better things to do than that in this life. But in any event, it's the trading idea. When my idea of indexing, broad market indexing by the SP five hundred and hold it forever, what is said to be Warren Buffett's favorite holding period.”
2016-03-11 · Masters in Business · Interview With Jack Bogle: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source