YouSaid · the spoken record

Jack Farley

lines on the record: 85
first: 2024-09-24
most recent: 2024-09-24
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

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“Have a balance of views. So last thing I say is in February of 2025 interest rates are at 3.5% or 4% and the unemployment rate is at 4.3%, I will consider the recessionistas to have fully lost. Like this, but this is the time though, and this is what recessionistas will say, is that it always looks like a soft landing up until the very end. But I think, you know, a five to six month window For the Federal Reserve to cut, and then it's a little too late, I think.”
2024-09-24 · Forward Guidance · What The Latest Fed Decision Means For Markets | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“No, I want to be objective as well. And I actually put a tweet a few days ago asking around for the best recession thesis because we have a lot of no recession theses lined up. And my personal opinion is no recession, but want to be objective, want to have other people come out onto the show and test the thesis. So fully aligned with Jack's philosophy here. We'll be doing the same thing on Ford Guidance to have a balance of views.”
2024-09-24 · Forward Guidance · What The Latest Fed Decision Means For Markets | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I always tried it for guys to have a balance of views. And I think maybe people don't have this perception, but maybe I'm just anxious that people have this perception that I only interviewed the bears. Definitely in 2022, like I had a bearish, you know, bias for guests, which was correct. But like once the stock market started going up, I was like, no, Jack, you need to have balance. And I think I definitely succeeded on that front. It's just that a lot of the bearish guests got a little more views. And that just reflects purely on the audience. not on me. And I'm going to try and do that with monetary matters. You know, Danielle is somewhat pessimistic on the economy and markets. Joseph, which I did not expect was pessimistic on the stock market, but I definitely, you know, just as forward guidance, I will be planning on speaking with the bulls definitely. And Felix, I look forward to continuing your coverage. You may opt to say, no, I'm going to have my own views influence it.”
2024-09-24 · Forward Guidance · What The Latest Fed Decision Means For Markets | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“They've run a lot, so you know, do your own research, but I like those. And yeah, Bitcoin's, I think it's going to continue to do well, but I do think if you look at the Q4 2020, I think maybe we're in a November-ish. Area and that would imply that we're getting very, very close to when other things should outperform. I am positioned for other things besides Bitcoin to start outperforming. So we'll see. It started this week.”
2024-09-24 · Forward Guidance · What The Latest Fed Decision Means For Markets | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And everyone here obviously knows a lot more about crypto than I do, but I think what you're seeing now is not 2021. It's basically just Bitcoin and the top stuff going up. And then there being a bunch of meme coins that everyone knows is nonsense, which are now going down. It's not 2021 where it's like, we've got a project that we're DeFi and we are going to revolutionize supply chain finance. It's not like some big scheme that is going to get there's no narrative, you know.”
2024-09-24 · Forward Guidance · What The Latest Fed Decision Means For Markets | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Those have correlated pretty strongly until the ETFs came in. And we saw this idiosyncratic move in crypto. At the same time, that we saw this idiosyncratic move in Mag7 AI type narratives, which both have fundamental reasons to it. But when you look at crap like ARC, it's on the floor. And I feel like they would have been as well. And this is the time, like keep an eye on Ark to understand banana zone and whether cutting 50 into a re-accelerating economy is actually happening or not because I feel like those type of things will go, you know, right.”
2024-09-24 · Forward Guidance · What The Latest Fed Decision Means For Markets | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I think people are confusing spurious correlation because look, they say they look at the crypto markets, they look at Bitcoin, and they say, oh, it's near all time highs and it's been surging over the last year. I think that's largely ETFs. And if ETFs hadn't happened, Bitcoin would be on the floor with Arc right now and about to see the leg higher. I feel like that's the trait.”
2024-09-24 · Forward Guidance · What The Latest Fed Decision Means For Markets | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“These companies are all more expensive than NVIDIA. And, you know, FICO's not doubling its revenues. Obviously, NVIDIA is cyclical, blah, blah, blah. But if AI is real, NVIDIA and a lot of companies that are going to be growing their revenues and Companies are massive.”
2024-09-24 · Forward Guidance · What The Latest Fed Decision Means For Markets | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Our first interview on four guys when you were a guest. That's funny a guest turning to a host. That's funny. I think Tyler, we're definitely not at a banana zone now. 2021 was a banana zone. It was a bubble in equities and crypto, but also the farther out on the risk curve, like the more higher the valuation, the better. The more speculative the business plan, the better. Venture capital companies going public that had no reason to go public. Retail being sucked in at the absolute highs, scam artists. Like we are nowhere there. And people who say the equity market is a bubble. The technology Mag7 is expensive. I don't think, I mean, I think the real, it's not a bubble, but it's just like exquisitely high quality companies such as FICO or Moody's or Chipotle. Not that I don't think Chipotle is that high quality company, but like they have price to earnings ratio of like in FICO's case, 100.”
2024-09-24 · Forward Guidance · What The Latest Fed Decision Means For Markets | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“risk assets. I think global leverage goes up and you get a lot of speaking of lowering rates and you'll get leverage upon leverage when people start borrowing money. Money markets have 7. What is it? Let me give you an accurate 7.5 trillion dollars in US money markets right now. That's a lot of money. And if they keep lowering rates, that money is coming somewhere, whether it's bonds or that's a cash bubble to me. And that chart looks like parabolic. It could be demographics, but still, if you're not getting paid for your interest, that's very, very bullish for liquidity. So I don't know. I think Before it's all said and done, I think we get a blast off here and some funky parts of the market. I'm looking at certain things like space stocks. When you see space docs really like breaking out to the upside, there's something going on.”
2024-09-24 · Forward Guidance · What The Latest Fed Decision Means For Markets | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, I think we're like 60 to 70% of the way in his model. But yeah, again, like I, you know, it's a useful heuristic, but I don't, I'm not betting everything on that idea because, I don't know, the world's complicated.”
2024-09-24 · Forward Guidance · What The Latest Fed Decision Means For Markets | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, that was a trigger that led to the Fed. I think it was after the Ukrainian invasion where they started to do 50, or sorry, 75 basis point hike clips. That's when they're like, oh crap. It wasn't like they were trying to be in team transitory as long as possible. Right.”
2024-09-24 · Forward Guidance · What The Latest Fed Decision Means For Markets | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And really, Oil went higher than it should have on an economic supply and demand. It was just a lot of speculation that oil would be cut off because of Russia and Ukraine, which ultimately didn't happen.”
2024-09-24 · Forward Guidance · What The Latest Fed Decision Means For Markets | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“American companies are people like to drill, and this whole narrative of balance sheet discipline that people talk about in 2022 is totally false. Maybe they're not drilling as much and they're not drilling so much that they are willfully going to go bankrupt like they did in 2013 and 2014. But I mean, just look at permian production. It's up massively. And Tyler, I think what you said was definitely right about lower rates are stimulative for oil prices because it capital market activity. I think like private equity funding oil doesn't really exist anymore. Like I think oil companies finance themselves by share issuance doing borrowing money from banks and family offices that are willing to lend to them and funding from their own profits, which is easy when it's at $100 and a little hardy when it's at $70. But I guess, yeah, I don't think the reason inflation went to 9% is because of oil. Basically.”
2024-09-24 · Forward Guidance · What The Latest Fed Decision Means For Markets | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Okay, yeah, I don't think oil is going to go like over $100. I have some very well-informed people I've talked to said to me, four guys and said in January that Saudi Arabia is keeping this market alive. And I just think that.”
2024-09-24 · Forward Guidance · What The Latest Fed Decision Means For Markets | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I love that point because I think this goes to my point about if you lower rates, you pump more oil, right? It's actually disinflationary if you lower rates just with lowering rates. You need the fiscal impulse to really push the growth in the inflation up. That's sort of where I'm at, where if you got that split Congress, on a side note, how come every Canadian I know knows? U.S. citizens, it's hilarious”
2024-09-24 · Forward Guidance · What The Latest Fed Decision Means For Markets | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Does that include inflation in terms of any sort of meaningful uptrend that causes the Fed reaction function to change? I mean, we look at what's occurred from the Fed. You know, obviously 2008 until 2020 is a pretty unique time. But when you look at just the historical basis of what the Fed has done, lowering interest rates, QE, et cetera, those things didn't lead to, like Michael Howard puts is like, you know, Main Street or high street inflation, it leaded to monetary inflation. But do we think this can actually occur without the fiscal? Like if we get a split congress that doesn't get anything done and they're just yelling at each other every day, like, do we even think inflation can come back to that degree?”
2024-09-24 · Forward Guidance · What The Latest Fed Decision Means For Markets | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Okay, but look, guys, I want to ask you, do you think the Fed on its own with its own tools can create enough inflation? Like without the hand of the fiscal authorities and treasury. No. Okay, so what's our target here for inflate? Like, I agree there's going to be a resurgence in growth.”
2024-09-24 · Forward Guidance · What The Latest Fed Decision Means For Markets | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“But the last point I'll say on this is people need to really, in their mind, separate the strength of the economy and financial markets and equity prices because similar to 2022, how this is all going to end again is the next wave of inflation. I'm of that opinion. I believe the Fed will stimulate enough to save the labor market and the economy, and that'll reignite growth, reignite bake lending and inflation comes back, you know, mix in a little geopolitical risk and oils back at 90 bucks, stuff like that in 2025. I don't think it's necessarily near term. So people need to, I think, really make sure they're kind of carrying a framework that delineates between the strength of the economy, which 2022 risk assets rolled over because inflation fed was behind the ball, but it was not because of a recession. That's why you didn't see credit spreads, go bananas and things until later, later in the move when we had the...”
2024-09-24 · Forward Guidance · What The Latest Fed Decision Means For Markets | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, zoom out. This is the liquidity cycle, and Michael Howell's liquidity cycle just playing out perfectly. And it's global. It's global. I think I have a chart showing like nominal yields of all the developed markets are just rolling over on the 10-year yield. And we're probably going to go back into some sort of like negative real yield situation. And the market's going to be ripping. I don't believe.”
2024-09-24 · Forward Guidance · What The Latest Fed Decision Means For Markets | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And the big large caps finance off the end, and the sovereigns and the large caps investment grade are 10, 30 year duration, and the small businesses Regionals, the private credit, it's huge for private credits borrowers for the health of private credit. Think about that. All the private credits companies and private equity and their portfolio companies just got their interest expense slash 50 bits and they're levered to the gills usually.”
2024-09-24 · Forward Guidance · What The Latest Fed Decision Means For Markets | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Economy and then zooming out of all this, you're saying, okay, GDP's at where it's at 3% estimated on the latest Fed now. Inflation's at where it's at, basically, two, five to three. And the unemployment rates still historic lows, credit spreads historic lows. And we just got a 50 basis point cut. So these regional banks can now lend profitably on a steep yield curve where they can borrow short and lend long. And you're seeing this inflecting. It's, yeah, like to the point about recession, it's just like, I think there's just the market continues to give something for everybody. Recession, you can find points to point to recession. You can find points like what was the data point. I saw it the Fed's cut 20 times with stock set all-time highs. And every time it's been higher or whatever, you know, like I just.”
2024-09-24 · Forward Guidance · What The Latest Fed Decision Means For Markets | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Governments have conducted policy. You have the treasury stimulating at these deficit levels irresponsibly and the Fed financing that via depressing long bond yields in the market by 100 at least basis points and hiking the short end to conduct their active jack barry nap is the absolute goat. I've been talking about this for ages and it's just because taking a step back, you have to like think about where this data is being pulled from. It's being pulled from the CFOs that run these small medium sized enterprises that have gotten crushed because they're financing costs have never been higher. Their inflation wage increases have never been higher. Their employees are upset because they can't afford groceries. But then what those surveys aren't asking around is the tech sector, the Amazons, the Google.”
2024-09-24 · Forward Guidance · What The Latest Fed Decision Means For Markets | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I agree like Dollar General and all the lower tier consumer or lower income consumer is in a lot of pain and credit card delinquencies are skyrocketing. I'm not Pollyanish about this. There's really bad things happening. It's the best times and the worst of times. We're really turning into Gotham. It's just that, like, It's partly what happens in a fourth turning, right? You have this disparity between super wealthy and the middle class gets annihilated. This all goes back to how.”
2024-09-24 · Forward Guidance · What The Latest Fed Decision Means For Markets | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I mean, I mean, look, you look at something like the beige book, which Powell referenced in his press conference assigned that drove part of the decision to go 50 bips. That thing is not that rosy either. So I admit that. And that's like a good reference point of not being entirely anecdotal, but it's this good hybrid of aggregated data that you can back up that's still somewhat anecdotal and like right from business operator. So I do respect that like there's when you're on when you're in the trenches talking to these operators economy. It really feels like that. It's that when you look at like top level down aggregated data, that's especially like market driven things seem okay. H-Y-G, you know, on a total return basis hitting all-time highs every day. But yeah, then when you look down into the lower income streams and parts of the economy, it's a lot rougher. So I do totally respect that. And it's hard for us to reconcile both.”
2024-09-24 · Forward Guidance · What The Latest Fed Decision Means For Markets | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“In the same way, if someone is a recession Easta and they have some anecdotal data, like I would be careful on that. I'd also careful about, oh, well, Dish Networks got upgraded. Like, you know, you got to have a bird's eye view. I will say on Carvana, like the market was pricing in a bankruptcy. And I know some very smart people who thought that Carvana would go bankrupt. And so, yeah, if a stock is pricing in bankruptcy and you know for a fact that two years later it won't go bankrupt, you definitely want to buy the stock.”
2024-09-24 · Forward Guidance · What The Latest Fed Decision Means For Markets | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“My tunnel changes if they blow out, like, yeah, we'll start paying attention to what's going on here. But like the balance sheets of like, you know, Think there was like a massive upgrade in like Dish Network in high yield. That doesn't happen in a recession. You don't see that type of stuff, like deleveraging from these high-yield guys just doesn't happen if it's a recession.”
2024-09-24 · Forward Guidance · What The Latest Fed Decision Means For Markets | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I'll give you this. Certainly, the only thing this would be if we're already in a recession, then high yield. Credit spreads are among the tightest they've ever been in a recession or definitely the weight. I mean, my data going back to 1997, they're definitely the tightest they've ever been.”
2024-09-24 · Forward Guidance · What The Latest Fed Decision Means For Markets | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Gotta say, Daniel Di Martino Booth love her stuff, thinks she's brilliant, she's been a bear for about 16 years. So I mean. Carvana's up 3x this year. I mean, let's stop talking about a recession. Until I see some pre-announcements and Oracle doesn't rally, you know 15% on earnings. I just don't, it's crazy. It's crazy. I love the sentiment for me because it's a contradicator. But like it's kind of crazy to me. The high yield spreads are like at record tights. In a normal recession, they're like blasted out to a thousand basis points. So all this stuff is just, it's a great story and you get a lot of followers if you're bearish. You sound smart, but like, I don't know what you're looking at in terms of market.”
2024-09-24 · Forward Guidance · What The Latest Fed Decision Means For Markets | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Examples, data points and stories that don't get a lot of attention that aren't in the overall aggregate. So I think she definitely would challenge the non-farm payroll data. She thinks it's a lot weaker than the actual data supports. And I mean Powell and many other economists have acknowledged that the non-farm payroll data could be a little overstated. My question would be just if the non-farm payroll data is indicating this level of strength, a very high level of strength, and it's lower. That doesn't necessarily mean that it's very weak. It just left strong.”
2024-09-24 · Forward Guidance · What The Latest Fed Decision Means For Markets | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“She's tracking layoffs and she's tracking, she basically think that non farm payrolls have been drastically overstated. So the strength of the labor market as how many jobs are being added each month, which was being quoted in 2022 and 2023 as a sign of a very strong labor market. I think over a million jobs have been revised out of the non-form payrolls. So yes, she has a lot of”
2024-09-24 · Forward Guidance · What The Latest Fed Decision Means For Markets | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah. So, you know, I look at things like this and I look at them getting in front of, you know, going big on the first cut on what seems so far to be largely proactive. I wouldn't say entirely reactive. I don't know. I feel like that left tail is getting cut pretty hard here on the recession idea. But I don't know. I mean, Jack, you interviewed Daniel Di Martino Booth and I listened to that. And there's some interesting, like, I know she thinks we're in a recession right now. And I'm really trying to understand that idea. Like, what were some of the takeaways there in terms of like how she's seen this labor market? Because when I look at something like this, it's like seems like we're okay.”
2024-09-24 · Forward Guidance · What The Latest Fed Decision Means For Markets | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, I would say just above expectations, but not actually I should be more clear about that. It's a surprise to the upside, but it's still in terms of heading in a lower trend. And then this was an interesting chart. I just want to pause here in for a second. It's just from Eric Bashmani of just the initial jobless claims non-seasonally adjusted compared to the last few years in terms of where we're at. And so the blue line is the current year compared to previous averages. And if we're on the verge or if you adopt the som rule thinking that we're in a recession. My personal opinion is that we would see this above trend quite significantly.”
2024-09-24 · Forward Guidance · What The Latest Fed Decision Means For Markets | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I mean, look, spending consumer spending has been by far the strongest part of the economy. So just a little bad month. That's fine. I'm not saying consumer spending has been weak, but I would not, if that's nominal, I would not refer to that as strong print.”
2024-09-24 · Forward Guidance · What The Latest Fed Decision Means For Markets | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Jobless claims. And if you look at just the trend of jobless claims on a four week average right here, it's just been trending lower and lower for the past couple months, which to me feels like quite the contrast to what we're seeing in terms of what is being talked about in the unemployment rate right now.”
2024-09-24 · Forward Guidance · What The Latest Fed Decision Means For Markets | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I like that. I like that a lot. Guys, I want to talk a little bit about what we see coming up next. So, you know, based on everything we talked about with the Fed meeting, the next meeting is not till November, and it's expected right now to be likely 25 bip. But a lot of that, as has been very explained by Chair Bell, is driven by the labor market now. And so it was quite interesting for me. I just want to run through a few slides of just some of the economic data that came in this week on the eve of the Big 50 Bip Scott. I felt was kind of funny. But retail sales came in pretty strong. You know, when you go into and look at, you know, like retail sales X at gas autos, it came in a little bit below consensus of like, say, 0.3% came in at 0.2. But overall, you know, pretty decent retail sales for where we're at in the cycle. And then same with jobless claims. We saw a below consensus print on the initial.”
2024-09-24 · Forward Guidance · What The Latest Fed Decision Means For Markets | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Mark Andreessen says the purpose of technology is you produce more and more with less and less. And if we had this real, if AI is real, you can produce more and more commoditized goods with less and less. So maybe we're just, maybe we're in a secularly disinflationary period and the government spending will cause real growth to kind of stew while you keep the inflation at bays, sort of what I was saying.”
2024-09-24 · Forward Guidance · What The Latest Fed Decision Means For Markets | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I'm actually saying almost the opposite where I think if you lower interest rates, it actually increases the amount of oil because the financing costs are easier. So you can pump more and more and more and more. That's what I'm saying. He's like, I've been thinking about this whole commodity thing differently. You have to do a lot of fiscal spending to really stew inflation. But that chart of commodities versus assets and it's just like it goes up and that goes down. That goes up. It'll probably go down, but I'm thinking maybe this time is different, which is”
2024-09-24 · Forward Guidance · What The Latest Fed Decision Means For Markets | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So, I also noticed that headline Tyler was very interesting. Yeah, I. I think that the power demand of artificial intelligence are as immense as we are reading. I don't know if that's a reason to buy low quality oil exploration and production companies. I think that it... Probably you're right, probably nuclear, and it probably demands for electricity. Will be large, but like oil does not produce electricity, it's natural gas. And maybe the price of natural gas is going to go up, but historically, there's been a lot of natural gas in America. So we'll see.”
2024-09-24 · Forward Guidance · What The Latest Fed Decision Means For Markets | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“This is a first turning thing where we're turning back to invest in our developed markets in the next generation will actually like create new institutions and hand it off from the old. That's why like IWM is breaking out here. And I think you're going to kind of see some of the old companies pass the torch.”
2024-09-24 · Forward Guidance · What The Latest Fed Decision Means For Markets | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And we're watching the first turning. One of the things I'll stop on the rant here in a second, but this morning, you got this headline. Microsoft's AI power needs prompt revival of Three Mile Island nuclear power plant, constellation to invest one point six billion to restart dormant reactor as data center powered surges. So this, I think, is really important just from a secular standpoint. We went into secular stagnation after Three Mile Island blew up when nuclear power went into the background like in 1979. And you could say like that's where the innovation of atoms really stopped. And, you know, Peter Teal talks about this all the time, but the innovation of bits took over. I think this is a turning point. And no one will remember this headline, but in 10 years, they'll be like, oh my God, they restarted three Mile Island. And that's a sign that we're turning back to.”
2024-09-24 · Forward Guidance · What The Latest Fed Decision Means For Markets | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And if you see the GDPs of Europe in the US over the past decade, the US just like completely blew them away. And they need to do something. So you're going to have so much government spending, especially as our generations get into power and you see these older people drop off in boomer politics. And there's the amount of government spending is going to be nuts. And you're going to have to have nuclear power to keep the inflation at bay. You're going to have to have pump a lot more oil here. OPEC is going to break up. There's going to be a lot of weird stuff that happens. But the end of the day, my point is, is that they're going to lower rates because you can't have a trillion dollar deficit when you have Medicare costs that are just like skyrocketing. It's just, so we're going to have a map. I think we're going to have a massive boom in asset.”
2024-09-24 · Forward Guidance · What The Latest Fed Decision Means For Markets | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Here's my thing. All this deliberation of thoughts and issuance and all this nonsense. Here's the politics of it all. We have a trillion dollar deficit. We have declining demographics. They are going to print and issue so much debt to get growth so that they can pay for the debt in lower interest rates. It's just no matter what happens, this is Ponzi Finance. Since the debt bubble has been transferred to sovereign balance sheets, my big read, my big read for the next 10 years is that developed markets are going to go on the biggest fiscal supercycle that you've ever seen. You're already going to see it. They're talking about it in Japan. They're talking about in Europe, especially Europe. Europe basically gave up their sovereignty to China. And now they have to basically restill domestic growth.”
2024-09-24 · Forward Guidance · What The Latest Fed Decision Means For Markets | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Everyone yelling at the Fed. It's like if you lose money, yell at the Fed. Like, no, if you're smarter than that, then you can have the view that they shouldn't have done something, but also have the view that that's what they were going to do. And it's, you know, this magical world of public markets.”
2024-09-24 · Forward Guidance · What The Latest Fed Decision Means For Markets | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And that's brought enough economic weakness to the labor market because small and medium-sized enterprises employ the most majority of the workforce in the states to get the Fed to ease, but at an aggregate level because the government spending so much, the economy actually is still okay flight traffic and foot volume and consumer and retail sales, all these things are actually fine. And so what the Fed's doing now is stimulating into what has kind of been like the second or third or fourth of these blips where we've had these mini downshifts in the business cycle over the last four years. And now it's going to re-inflect higher. So I think it's, I think it's going to be look back on as a policy mistake. Like everyone, you know, had their undies in a bundle about like, oh, they should not do 25. And it's like, and I was saying they should do 50. I don't think they should do 50, but I thought they would do 50. And, you know, you got to play the cards.”
2024-09-24 · Forward Guidance · What The Latest Fed Decision Means For Markets | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Investment grade and high yield debt volumes relative to sovereign debt volumes issuance over the last few years, and you will see that crowding out effect happening real time, which is making the CFO survey, tying this all together. The reason all these CFOs are bearish is because we've got a two-speed economy where lifting the front end interest rate at the Fed has crushed small business, small banks, regionals. Crush bank lending, that's the majority of the CFOs around the country. It's helped the”
2024-09-24 · Forward Guidance · What The Latest Fed Decision Means For Markets | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“More diverse group, and these private ones are more like club deals where it's like me and two or three of my private credit buddies shop Going in and kind of hounding the companies, getting tight covenants, et cetera. I think your point, like fixed income is just going to suffer in a secularly inflationary environment from a real returns perspective. You're going to lose purchasing power relative to other assets. But we're not seeing credit problems Think Tyler, you put a chart like this, whereas the bubble in. Debt market's at the sovereign level, and they need to get their way out of it You look at this crowding out effect, the look at the ratio of issuance. This is leaking some alpha here, but. Issuance of”
2024-09-24 · Forward Guidance · What The Latest Fed Decision Means For Markets | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Because for whatever Term investors like to see. Market so they sleep better at night thinking that magically their private equity owned businesses. The same draw Public stocks in the same way that crypto venture investors think they're marked to market. Take the same drawdowns that Liquid tokens take. That's just really what's happening in a private credit. I pushed back actually The notion of offloading risk into the private markets because actually the deals are more sound Because in the private markets, the lenders have more leverage and control and say versus in the public markets, it's like, think of this, you're issuing $500 million to 200 investors and they each take a little piece. And none of them actually You know, there's”
2024-09-24 · Forward Guidance · What The Latest Fed Decision Means For Markets | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yes, it's partially gonna say where I do agree with Tyler is I think cuts, dovish cuts are everywhere and always bullish all things being equal. A lot of the time the reason there are cuts is because there's a crisis and that's obviously not bullish such as 2008, 2020. But I think like all things being equal, let's just assume that they were always dovish. I never really believed into the high interest rates or stimulative game. But so low interest rates will stimulate capital markets activity. And I think high yield bonds investment grade bonds, mortgages, as Quinn referenced earlier, maybe even some IPOs, which have been lacking, even though the stock markets is at an all-time highs, which is interesting. So yeah, I think it will simulate capital market activity, which is bullish.”
2024-09-24 · Forward Guidance · What The Latest Fed Decision Means For Markets | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So basically, what you're saying is that something like HYG, which is like publicly securitized high yield issuance, is not capturing that credit risk because it's been offloaded into private markets.”
2024-09-24 · Forward Guidance · What The Latest Fed Decision Means For Markets | Weekly Roundup · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT