YouSaid · the spoken record

Jack Rivkin

lines on the record: 101
first: 2014-11-15
most recent: 2014-11-15
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

Every line below is reproduced as it was said and linked to the record it came from. Nothing here is summarised or generated. Directory · Search · Corrections

“Been listening to masters in business on Bloomberg Radio. I'm going to say that again. I'm Barry Ritholz. You've been listening to Masters in Business on Bloomberg Radio. If you're listening to this, you're obviously hearing the podcast. Be sure and check out our other podcast, which are archived on Bloomberg.com. In theory, we should be up on Apple iTunes any day now. been dawdling. I guess they're waiting for Samsung to put us up first and then they'll match that. That's my dig at Apple despite me owning all Apple products. I can't get our damn podcast up there. Follow me on Twitter at Rithaltz or check out my daily column on Bloombergview.com.”
2014-11-15 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: Altegris Group CIO Jack Rivkin (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Anyway, Jack, thank you so much for spending so much time with us today. You're just a font of information. And as always, it's a pleasure chatting with you.”
2014-11-15 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: Altegris Group CIO Jack Rivkin (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“See, I couldn't do that every three months because it would just make me too bullish. I have to have some objectivity and that sort of stuff I would just 200% long and forget about everything else. That's right. I can only go every other year. And that carries me through.”
2014-11-15 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: Altegris Group CIO Jack Rivkin (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“The ingenuity and the new technologies, it looks as if every problem, at least from a technology standpoint, can be solved, whether India can get the politics in order in order to fix their system or the United States can get their healthcare budget in order. It's not the technology that's the problems anymore. No, it's not. It's society that's around.”
2014-11-15 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: Altegris Group CIO Jack Rivkin (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“You know, the last thing I want to mention, and it's right on that point, so we go to this conference every other year. It's out in California, and it's just a bunch of young college kids showing off each of their new technology ideas and looking for venture investing. And you go through, you spend two days looking at these 19-year-old kids and what comes out of there. And I'm in my 50s now, so I look at 19-year-olds as kids. And it's impossible to have a negative outlook when you just see this parade of brilliance.”
2014-11-15 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: Altegris Group CIO Jack Rivkin (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I charge this thing up. You forget about it for a year. It's still dead. It hasn't lost the charge. It weighs half as much as the old one. So I'm waiting for that next breakthrough that's four times as powerful, half the weight. And that's how you end up being”
2014-11-15 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: Altegris Group CIO Jack Rivkin (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“The amazing thing is that you can really improve technology with all these incremental changes, all these iterations, but when you get that big breakthrough and you know there's one out there that's coming, it's going to be such a game changer. Imagine I used to have this drill, this electric drill with this big heavy battery, and for years it was perfectly fine. Yeah, it was a little heavy. And when you're done using it, you plugged it and you had to charge it. When the new lithium batteries came out. You just, oh my God, these other things are just ancient technology. So you charge this up. I have this leaf blower that I got at Home Depot. I'm trying to remember the name of it, but it's the Home Depot in-house brand.”
2014-11-15 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: Altegris Group CIO Jack Rivkin (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“That underlines it, but it's a metallic gel used for these new batteries, and the storage is the first order of magnitude breakthrough. Now, I don't know what the safety dangers and if it can be commercialized. Yeah.”
2014-11-15 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: Altegris Group CIO Jack Rivkin (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“The RD You know, we haven't had a huge breakthrough in battery technology. These have all been incremental improvements. And I was just reading that too long ago some sort of a gel. I can't remember the metal.”
2014-11-15 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: Altegris Group CIO Jack Rivkin (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“The Marcellus. People have literally said there's 500 years, 300 years of natural gas consumption, and they're still making find after fined after find.”
2014-11-15 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: Altegris Group CIO Jack Rivkin (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Absolutely does. So the other question is, I don't think there's enough alternative energies that are competitive enough that that's making the price of oil drop. But at a certain point.”
2014-11-15 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: Altegris Group CIO Jack Rivkin (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And we mentioned earlier the falling price of oil. Isn't that a threat to traditional things like solar and wind? It is a threat.”
2014-11-15 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: Altegris Group CIO Jack Rivkin (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“As anybody who was trying to do business in Russia can tell you. Yeah. Someone described the United States as a huge insurance health insurance company with a standing army attached. Russia, on the other hand, is a huge criminal enterprise with a standing army attached. That's right. Why would you want to go there and do business? Last subject before we let you go. So I know you're big into alternative energies and associated technologies.”
2014-11-15 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: Altegris Group CIO Jack Rivkin (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Heavy consumer of electricity, whether it's a semiconductor fab or a heavier industrial manufacturer, it is now, once you back out the cost of shipping from Asia, the United States has become really cost competitive.”
2014-11-15 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: Altegris Group CIO Jack Rivkin (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“We started seeing this a few years ago, and people were not big believers of the manufacturing renaissance in the United States, the complaint in China is, well, we can't reliably get electricity and the electricity that comes in fluctuates wildly and ampage and voltage. There's a cost of building a set of electronics to create a steady output as opposed to these wild swings. You go anywhere in the Midwest United States, you run a natural gas pipeline, or just a natural gas line there, set up electrical code generation plant, you have inexhaustible, almost free electricity. That's right. And so if you're running a”
2014-11-15 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: Altegris Group CIO Jack Rivkin (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So you mentioned traditional crude oil, traditional energy. We have the tar sands up north. We have hydro fracking for natural gas here. We have using coal to make liquefied natural gas. What am I forgetting in the hydrocarbon space?”
2014-11-15 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: Altegris Group CIO Jack Rivkin (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“We're in a, at the time we're recording this, oil briefly dipped under $80 And some of this has to do with let's talk about three things. So we have the strong dollar, obviously a factor. We also have seen supply, I'm sorry, we've seen demand drop some of its weakness in Europe and weakness in Asia, but we've also seen the US become more efficient as a consumer, as the world's largest consumer of energy, is a factor. And then at the same time, massive discoveries of supply everywhere, whether it's tar sands or shale gas.”
2014-11-15 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: Altegris Group CIO Jack Rivkin (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, that'll hurt their economy dramatically if everything becomes more expensive out of them. So let's talk a little bit about energy.”
2014-11-15 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: Altegris Group CIO Jack Rivkin (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“How is that their debt to GDP is approaching 200%? It's twice as bad as ours, almost three times as bad as ours. And yet their treasury is much, much lower. So if people are still willing, if the marketplace is still willing to lend them money, when is that going to stop? When is that going to change?”
2014-11-15 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: Altegris Group CIO Jack Rivkin (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And it used to take four guys with green eyeshades working for two weeks in the basement of some building, you know, a month to get that out. And now it's eight seconds pushing.”
2014-11-15 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: Altegris Group CIO Jack Rivkin (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Every month we put out a quarterly conference call for clients. We do a whole series of analytics on all our portfolios and we do a regular rebalancing and every one of those things is essentially you push a button.”
2014-11-15 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: Altegris Group CIO Jack Rivkin (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Would have taken 100 people, it would not have, or it would have been so expensive to do. You couldn't. So we put out a number of different commentaries.”
2014-11-15 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: Altegris Group CIO Jack Rivkin (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, there's a baby boom generation that's 60,000 a day or whatever the number is retires. But on the other hand, globalization, you have people elsewhere willing to work much cheaper, whether it's Vietnam or Turkey or Mexico. And you have look in my office, we're less than 10 people. The stuff that we do, we talk about technology. Yeah, it works.”
2014-11-15 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: Altegris Group CIO Jack Rivkin (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So, the average age keeps going up. Very few new kids coming in. You know, you think about the baby boom and what that did in the United States. This is the opposite of that.”
2014-11-15 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: Altegris Group CIO Jack Rivkin (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Japan debt ridden society, aging society, terribly low birth rate, almost no immigration, but a phenomenal corporate export economy. How does that work? And what's the endgame there? What happens?”
2014-11-15 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: Altegris Group CIO Jack Rivkin (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, you could describe so many countries that way. You mentioned, so there's two things you touched on that I want to mention that I definitely want to touch upon in our last 10 or so minutes. You mentioned Japan, and that's a country that has all sorts of interesting problems. And then you mentioned energy, and I want to talk about both of those, because I know you have a lot of experience in each area.”
2014-11-15 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: Altegris Group CIO Jack Rivkin (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Attach a warship, one of the Argentinian warships made port somewhere and they show up and serve papers on the captain and said, until we get paid, this isn't your ship anymore.”
2014-11-15 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: Altegris Group CIO Jack Rivkin (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“We've seen coming out of these for people who may not be tracking this closely. So Argentina has a lot of sovereign debt, not corporate debt, and they went through restructuring. And when you go through restructuring, the creditor committee gets to weigh in on how much of a haircut, how much less they're willing to take. And there's a secondary market where people can go and buy this debt. Hey, listen, this is going to get cut in half. You could wait seven years to get your 50 cents on the dollar. I'll give you 30 cents on the dollar today and a number of hedge funds did this Some of whom then became members of that creditor committee, and I'm grossly oversimplifying this, but basically said we're not going to participate in this. We want a full 100 cents on the dollar. And they even managed to.”
2014-11-15 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: Altegris Group CIO Jack Rivkin (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Pretty good stock market. Yeah, doing pretty well. Modi was here during the last UN session, and he was a rock star. He gave a... There was a presentation at Madison Square Garden. It was insane. We saw clips of it. It was like you too was in town. It was an absolutely a madhouse, you know, Rolling Stones type of show. How does a politician find themselves in that we don't see that in the US? No, you don't see that.”
2014-11-15 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: Altegris Group CIO Jack Rivkin (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Become China? Why hasn't India take all this intellectual capital they have and amongst the highest educated workforce when it comes to STEM, science, technology, engineering, math? And you look at medicine, you look at others, and yet they...”
2014-11-15 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: Altegris Group CIO Jack Rivkin (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And my wife actually lost one in the back of a cab left in the trunk of a cab. But we knew people would come back and it's a $3,000 camera and they were paying like...”
2014-11-15 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: Altegris Group CIO Jack Rivkin (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“The thing that I used to hear about people coming back from Japan with all the time was the Nikon, I want to say D7s, is that, yeah.”
2014-11-15 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: Altegris Group CIO Jack Rivkin (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Really high end, very expensive stuff, the city was just filled with Europeans and this was the highest producing shop in the country. So speaking, I would pop in there and it was impossible. I was looking for a computer case and for a laptop and I started talking to the manager. And I'm like, so how's business these days? And his answer was, it's insane. He goes, we don't have a big enough warehouse to keep ourselves filled. The Europeans come in. They're buying the big wheeled suitcase. He goes, we sell these for $1,200 apiece. We can't keep them in stock. People are coming in and buying them two and three at a time. The dollar was so cheap to them it was like 60% off to these folks. And then they would take these big suitcases and wheel them over to Bloomingdale and up Madison and they would basically take all this stuff and take it back home.”
2014-11-15 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: Altegris Group CIO Jack Rivkin (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So it's funny because when people should be aware of how Khan Si affects everything, from 2001, when the Fed started cutting rates after 9-11 to 2007, the dollar lost 41% of its value. If you want to know why oil skyrocketed in the 2000s and food and gold and everything else, hey, the measuring stick got much smaller. We're here in Manhattan. My old office was on fifth and forty fourth and around the corner from us was a Tomey shop and TUMI, the luggage.”
2014-11-15 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: Altegris Group CIO Jack Rivkin (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“This day, I regret not making the pulling the trigger on a BMW Z8, which at the time I couldn't afford. This is 15 years ago or 12 years ago, and it was about 70 grand, and now that car is going for about 200.”
2014-11-15 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: Altegris Group CIO Jack Rivkin (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So, keep in mind the euro not too long ago was about $1.47. Is that right? And I had a friend who in the early 2000s, the last time the dollar was crazy strong. Was going to Europe and buying Porsches and Ferraris and high-end BMWs and Mercedes, bringing them to the United States, making them US DOT legal, and selling them for a fat profit and still undercutting the dealers by $20,000.”
2014-11-15 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: Altegris Group CIO Jack Rivkin (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Chatham House rules means you can describe what was said and you can't identify the person by name. Can't identify the person. You could say a manager who specializes in fixed income, but that's a specific. I can say.”
2014-11-15 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: Altegris Group CIO Jack Rivkin (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Europe, it continues to be weak. You look at the euro, the one thing that they've managed to do over in Europe is actually get the euro to fall. So we have the dollar at multi-year highs, which is good for us as consumers of oil, which is now at multi-year lows. And if you travel abroad, hey, a burger in London is no longer $47. And that's not a made-up number. That's the last time I was there. I had a burger somewhere. It was $47 plus the exchange rate was so awful. So now that's changed a bit.”
2014-11-15 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: Altegris Group CIO Jack Rivkin (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“happening in Europe i look at that the statement and i think what he really wants to say is hey we need some fiscal stimulus yes but i can't say that so i'm going to call for fiscal stimulus and reform and let people argue about a little of both can't hurt but in the meantime”
2014-11-15 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: Altegris Group CIO Jack Rivkin (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I don't think it's the feds. Most people would say it's Congress's responsibility. So the next question is, so here's the fascinating counter argument. If the Fed did less than the economy would be worse, we'd slip into a recession, and all the people who are refusing to participate in the normal economic stimulus get tossed out of office and a new crop comes in. But instead, the Fed is essentially enabling a do-nothing Congress because the repercussions for their do-nothingness is not coming back to Biden.”
2014-11-15 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: Altegris Group CIO Jack Rivkin (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Certainly not Congress. Right. Well, that's the other thing. That's the other thing you have a Congress that refuses to do what Congress normally does, which is, look, if this current administration had the same sort of fiscal, not monetary, but fiscal stimulus as the previous administration, this would be a much healthier economy. Higher employment, higher wages, lower unemployment, and GDP would probably be a full percent higher than where it was.”
2014-11-15 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: Altegris Group CIO Jack Rivkin (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I think eventually the Fed just lets these average duration of seven years. You just let it roll off. You eventually get money back for the bonds and they turn it over to Treasury and everybody is happy and goes on their way. So it's not like how are we going to get out of this? Well, you let seven years go by and you less out.”
2014-11-15 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: Altegris Group CIO Jack Rivkin (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Let's talk about that. So before we leave the Fed, the complaint is, oh, so now we have QE4, and every time the market has a hissy fit and drops, we're not even down 10%, now we're going to have QE5 and QE6 and QE infinity. Are we on a permanent state of QE? Now, I don't believe that.”
2014-11-15 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: Altegris Group CIO Jack Rivkin (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So let's get really specific. October 2008, Congress doesn't pass the TARP program and the markets have their worst week ever on a point basis and a percentage basis one of the worst weeks ever. And ultimately the Treasury passes TARP and then the Fed begins a number of liquidity programs to thaw out the frozen credit markets. You know, when you have the head of McDonald's and GE and Ford calling the White House and say, hey, I'm not going to make payroll next month, not because we don't have the cash, but their cash flow is gone. Everything is frozen solid. The normal flow of capital is completely disrupted. You got to do something.”
2014-11-15 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: Altegris Group CIO Jack Rivkin (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“To do the Fed didn't pack our parachute correctly, and that's why we did it. So people have been pretty critical of Ben Bernanke and the Federal Reserve in general, but you've been pretty supportive of saying, hey, you guys may not love what was done, but think about the alternative.”
2014-11-15 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: Altegris Group CIO Jack Rivkin (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So the Fed doesn't want to be bailing people out because they don't want responsibility for why are we involved with an insurance company? We're supposed to be regulating banks. Why is the Federal Reserve participating in the bailout? You're saying they don't want to do that. They want to stick to their knitting, worry about banks and everybody else can worry about their own thing.”
2014-11-15 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: Altegris Group CIO Jack Rivkin (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And if Ben Bernanke was a better poker player, he could have gone to Jamie Diamond and said, Hey, listen, I know you want thirty billion dollars, but here's what we're going to do. We're not going to give you a dime. And if you're smart, you'll do this because if they blow up, they're going to take you down. And the next time you have this conversation, both of us will be in front of Congress with our right hand raised, and I'll be recounting this conversation. And when we're done, they'll take you off in shackles.”
2014-11-15 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: Altegris Group CIO Jack Rivkin (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It had to get dead enough for them to overreact or react. So let's talk a little bit about the bailouts and about what the Fed's reaction has been. Most of the bailouts we can place at the footstep of Treasury, but the Fed facilitated the bailout of long-term capital management in 98. Which Roger Lowenstein very famously said if only banks had been reintroduced to the concept of bad loans, biting them instead of, oh, look, we managed to trade our way out of this. That was 98. And then we look at the bailout of essentially facilitating JP Morgan's purchase of Bear Stearns without the $29 billion guarantee of the Fed, that theoretically wouldn't have happened, although my pet thesis is the biggest counterparty exposure to Bear Stearns' derivative book was JP Morgan.”
2014-11-15 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: Altegris Group CIO Jack Rivkin (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So they were doing what the banks were doing, but they were doing it with more leverage. And less regulation and less supervision Well, how could that possibly go wrong?”
2014-11-15 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: Altegris Group CIO Jack Rivkin (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Produces all kinds of things. There's an argument that the Fed really didn't, and let's talk about the Fed, but there's an argument that the Fed really didn't have a lot of jurisdiction over Baron Lehman and Wall Street. There were really supervising city and Bank America and Wells Fargo and all the other depository banks that”
2014-11-15 · Masters in Business · Masters in Business: Altegris Group CIO Jack Rivkin (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source