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Jacob Helberg

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2025-08-28
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2025-08-28
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  1. David Sachs and I hosted not too long ago an AI summit with the president and it was incredibly inspiring to see the president declare that America would win the AI race. And in that statement he acknowledged we were in a race and he declared that America started the race and we're going to win it. And it's inspiring because in a way it was kind of reminiscent to John of Kennedy's moon speech. And so that's the kind of optimism and bullishness and boldness that frankly we need from the White House. And I think is eminently reflected in policy. I mean, this is a pro builder administration.

    2025-08-28 · No Priors · Reshaping America’s Economy for the Superintelligence Century with Jacob Helberg · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  2. Sure. So part of what we've seen over the last six months is that this is fundamentally a builder-friendly administration. We have a builder in the White House and that's really been reflected in the policies rolled out. And so fundamentally, the policies of the administration, I would argue, have really amounted to shock therapy, to help facilitate building in America as much as possible, removing roadblocks through deregulation, through lowering taxes and lowering the tax burden, promoting foreign investment in the US. And so ultimately the job of the White House is really to help empower builders as much as possible and make America the best destination for capital. And so, and I believe that we fundamentally already started achieving that.

    2025-08-28 · No Priors · Reshaping America’s Economy for the Superintelligence Century with Jacob Helberg · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  3. Logistics is another really interesting area where a policy can actually help play a role. And the Chinese have been masters through their Belt and Road Initiative at actually having a supply chain plan that includes a global transportation logistic network to get minerals from Africa back to China, refine in China, exported back everywhere else. And I think we need, as you know, we used to do this with the Panama Canal, with these big investments that we used to make in transportation logistics infrastructure. And I think the president's appetite for having a very robust economic policy agenda is exciting because it gives us an opportunity to actually take a hard look at things that as a country we haven't done in a while.

    2025-08-28 · No Priors · Reshaping America’s Economy for the Superintelligence Century with Jacob Helberg · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  4. Yeah, so I tend to think of my work being very supply chain focused is because it allows, it gives me a mental framework for thinking about these issues holistically by looking at the supply chain as a layered pyramid that includes energy, minerals, component manufacturing, semiconductor manufacturing, data centers, models, and apps. And I think as a country, we kind of need a strategy that is holistic at the different layers of the supply chain. We're actually in a really good position at most of them. We have abundant energy, although we need to increase our supply where our biggest exposure points, our component manufacturing, semiconductor manufacturing, and minerals. And, you know, there's a lot that we can do to move the needle there. But transport...

    2025-08-28 · No Priors · Reshaping America’s Economy for the Superintelligence Century with Jacob Helberg · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  5. Consumption and services back towards a healthier balance with manufacturing and industrial activity. It's a totally new country. And I find that super exciting.

    2025-08-28 · No Priors · Reshaping America’s Economy for the Superintelligence Century with Jacob Helberg · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  6. Yeah, and that's where I think you really sort of start to see a picture of a totally new American economy where we used to be consumption driven, very low investment, you know, stagnant energy supply and a GDP growth between one and three percent. And we're moving to this new world where we're going to be a high investment economy that's basically going to invest between 2 and 4 percent of GDP in private capex investment, which is massive. The growth ban could potentially, you know, a high productivity, a country where productivity is actually increasing meaningfully in a way that compounds and starts to shift the GDP growth band from 1 to 3%, potentially somewhere between three and five percent, according to a Goldman Sachs study. The makeup of GDP starting to shift from

    2025-08-28 · No Priors · Reshaping America’s Economy for the Superintelligence Century with Jacob Helberg · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  7. In the 2030s, I think it's possible to do that. And, Sarah, you pointed out that if we want to re-industrialize those numbers might even be higher and that's totally true. And the way we get there, I think definitely runs through nuclear. It also runs through natural gas, through clean coal, through, I think we really need an all of the above approach, but nuclear just provides a massive amount of very low cost energy. So whatever we can do to turbocharge that, I think would be very meaningful.

    2025-08-28 · No Priors · Reshaping America’s Economy for the Superintelligence Century with Jacob Helberg · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  8. Channel investment from trusted partners into this sector to grow our energy supply. And the one point that I'd add is the one thing France got right in the last 45 years is it actually gets 75% of its total energy supply from nuclear. Now, they don't have natural gas like we do. They don't have oil rigs like we do. We're very blessed as a country because we have a lot of resources, but they prove that even in a country that has an insane regulatory burden, you can actually get really statistically meaningful numbers of electricity from nuclear. A lot rightfully pointed out that some statistics say that our data center capacity will require us to double our overall electricity production.

    2025-08-28 · No Priors · Reshaping America’s Economy for the Superintelligence Century with Jacob Helberg · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  9. I mean, I think it's eminently doable. And I actually think it's doable with just the right incentives. I think there isn't even that much state-led direction that's necessary. I think if you really reduce the barriers, the regulatory barriers and the costs, you can actually create the right environment to direct a lot of that capital. And then the government has to basically signal to the market that the Committee on Foreign Investment in the US, Cyphius, will not block foreign investment from trusted partners into this sector because energy has historically been considered, rightfully so, critical infrastructure, and therefore foreign investment is subject to all kinds of scrutiny. But we can actually

    2025-08-28 · No Priors · Reshaping America’s Economy for the Superintelligence Century with Jacob Helberg · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  10. And as you know, when you have delays like that, the costs compound because you're paying interest on loans, because you're paying legal fees. And so it's not even just a perfectly linear extension of the cost. You're actually, you know, your cost actually go up on a compounding curve. And so

    2025-08-28 · No Priors · Reshaping America’s Economy for the Superintelligence Century with Jacob Helberg · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  11. I mean, I think it really starts with policy uncertainty. So you have, I mean, if compressing the window has a huge impact on the cost analysis that a lot of investors make when they decide whether or not to invest. And then as far as pockets of money go, there are a lot of two.

    2025-08-28 · No Priors · Reshaping America’s Economy for the Superintelligence Century with Jacob Helberg · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  12. Difference play out in GDP growth. And so, but the challenge is that large nuclear plants that actually produce a lot of energy take a lot of capex. They're very expensive. There are dozens of billions of dollars. They also take sometimes seven years to build. Now, the administration is doing a superb job at taking a very hard look at regulations and figuring out ways of actually compressing that window, but it still kept very capital intensive. And so working with partners, including in the Middle East, to make sure that we actually get those projects capitalized could actually potentially really move the needle.

    2025-08-28 · No Priors · Reshaping America’s Economy for the Superintelligence Century with Jacob Helberg · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  13. I think we need nuclear energy. There's no doubt in my mind that nuclear energy offers the best path. And this is where a partnership with the Middle East could also be very interesting because the president has done a superb job at securing very, very large foreign investment commitments into the United States. There is a lot of room for those commitments to be channeled towards productivity enhancing areas. And I would argue energy, nuclear energy infrastructure is a productivity enhancing area because it makes our electricity and energy supply more abundant, cheaper. We know from 200 years of history that there is a direct correlation between the cost of energy and economic growth of electricity in the US is half of the cost of electricity in Europe. And we see that.

    2025-08-28 · No Priors · Reshaping America’s Economy for the Superintelligence Century with Jacob Helberg · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  14. The right framework that satisfies security concerns that national security professionals have in Washington, some of those concerns are that include that we want to make sure that China doesn't get access to those clusters. But I think it's eminently doable and ultimately I know that this is something that the administration is looking at taking a close look at.

    2025-08-28 · No Priors · Reshaping America’s Economy for the Superintelligence Century with Jacob Helberg · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  15. Yeah, well, I think the Middle East actually has the potential for being a completely new kind of partner for the US. And the reason is that, first of all, they actively say they want to move in a much more pro-American direction, which is obviously a good start. Second of all, as a country, we're energy constrained. So we can expand our energy supply and obviously the administration and along with the private sector is actively working to do that. But that's going to take time. And so if we want to move really fast, working with partners that have abundant cheap energy offers our companies an opportunity to actually compete on raw energy power combined with compute and with speed against China's approach. The trick there is really going to be finding

    2025-08-28 · No Priors · Reshaping America’s Economy for the Superintelligence Century with Jacob Helberg · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  16. Chair by using the open source ecosystem. And so in that sense, I think Meta's efforts are very important. But I think having a holistic approach to make sure that we have the very best models and they're as widely used is super important.

    2025-08-28 · No Priors · Reshaping America’s Economy for the Superintelligence Century with Jacob Helberg · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  17. Well, I think we need to have a strategy to figure out how we promote American, the American stack overseas, whether that's through open source or through other models. I mean, I would argue, again, reasonable people have different takes on what happened with Deepseek. I think the basic building blocks of the main takeaways of how DeepSeek achieved the performance, its performance was incremental efficiency gains. They lied about their compute capacity because they have a billion dollar cluster and they distilled ChatGPT's model weights. So while DeepSeek is open source, I would argue it's not really open source if they stole the model weights from a model that is closed source. With that being said, it will definitely be an integral part of China's strategy to try to get market.

    2025-08-28 · No Priors · Reshaping America’s Economy for the Superintelligence Century with Jacob Helberg · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  18. So they'll have AI out of the box with the Ascend platform and DeepSeek and all of these Chinese tools. And the Chinese are very good at aggressively competing for market share. So obviously having a strategy to compete in the Global South and third markets will be important. And the last is the one that we talked about earlier, which is the global rearmament across the world.

    2025-08-28 · No Priors · Reshaping America’s Economy for the Superintelligence Century with Jacob Helberg · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  19. Is Iran's influence in the region being greatly diminished actually paves the way for a much, much more peaceful region that's not being held hostage every day to terrorist groups. So I find the Middle East fascinating. The last two features are, I think the US and China are going to be locked in a very aggressive race to control the scaffolding of the AI architecture for the world. So they're going to, you know, obviously the rest of the world at one point or another will need to import intelligence. A lot of them will not need the super fancy black wall chips. They'll need the normal stuff. But who sells them that, whether it'll be NVIDIA or Huawei, will really make a huge difference because both companies and the Chinese will definitely bundle the stack.

    2025-08-28 · No Priors · Reshaping America’s Economy for the Superintelligence Century with Jacob Helberg · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  20. And that's actually a great segue to another interesting feature, which is I find to be a total plot twist, is the part of the world that we're really seeing surging is the Middle East, which is just really interesting because when you consider that GDP per capita in the UAE and Israel is higher than in France today, which is wild. It's higher than in South Korea. And so you're seeing parts of the Middle East actually emerge in completely unexpected ways because I think in the West, we've long talked about the Middle East as a war-torn region, a region that struggles with all kinds of geopolitical instability issues and regional conflicts. And you're seeing a totally new Middle East emerge. You're seeing leaders in the Middle East that are super tech forward. And, you know, a silver lining of the recent conflict.

    2025-08-28 · No Priors · Reshaping America’s Economy for the Superintelligence Century with Jacob Helberg · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  21. The Europeans blame it on the oil shock of the 70s, but that was 50 years ago. So reasonable people have different takes. I would argue that you can really just that they missed the boat on a lot of really big technological revolutions. They missed the boat on, you know, they were very late to adopt the internet. They were very late to embrace the, you know, digital and internet revolution and the consumer app revolution. And now with the AI act that the EU passed and the digital services tax, they just keep shooting themselves in the foot. And I think the AI Act is basically single-handedly ensuring that Europe will not be a first mover in AI because it's now subject to these incredibly punitive set of rules. And so

    2025-08-28 · No Priors · Reshaping America’s Economy for the Superintelligence Century with Jacob Helberg · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  22. And start to leapfrog the rest of the world that is lagging in AI adoption. Number two, and a byproduct of this is a collapse of the cheap labor advantage that a lot of developing economies have benefited from for the last 50 years. The third big feature, which really hasn't been discussed a lot in the press, is that Europe's economy has been collapsing. And so the narrative today isn't that China's rising, the plot twist that no one saw coming is that it's actually Europe that's just completely collapsing. So Europe's economy went from being 65% of global GDP in the early 20th century to roughly a third in the 80s and 90s. And now it's down to 15% of global GDP.

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  23. We're starting to see the contours of a totally new world. And if you think about what the narrative was 10 years ago, 10 years ago, the narrative was the 21st century is going to be the Chinese century or the century where the East rises, so to speak. What it's proving today is I actually think the defining feature of this century is not the rising of the East or the rise of China. It's really the rise of superintelligence. And the way that we're seeing this change the global landscape is on the one hand, I think we're going to, we're likely to see a second great divergence. So for the first time since the first industrial revolution, I think we're going to see the economies that are first movers in integrating AI into their economy reap massive productivity and growth benefits.

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  24. And if you believe that from a first principle standpoint, that human wants are unlimited, which I would argue they are, I mean, just look at our, you know, everything we consume today compared to our grandparents, I think we're looking at a world that's just going to produce a lot more stuff and workers will just do a much bigger range of things because of AI. And so I'm actually quite optimistic about the future of work.

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  25. Yeah, so I guess, I mean, the way that I would frame it differently is if you believe that Agentic AI is going to make each individual worker be able to do a lot more stuff. If you're a company or if you're a country, you're basically looking at two outcomes. If you're a country with a GDP of 10 trillion and all of a sudden, you only need a tenth of the workers to perform the task that a hundred workers previously were able to perform. You either need a lot less workers or the totality of your workers will produce 10 times more. And I actually think companies will choose far from laying off workers. I think companies will choose to increase output because if they don't, their competitors will.

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  26. I've become somewhat fascinated with this macroeconomic theory called Jevins Paradox, which is that the basic economic principle that when you have a technology that massively increases efficiency, demand in a resource, demand for that resource actually increases. It doesn't decrease.

    2025-08-28 · No Priors · Reshaping America’s Economy for the Superintelligence Century with Jacob Helberg · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  27. In the 1800s, totally collapsed. It went from being about a third of the world economy in 1800 down to about 7.5% in 1913. And so it just shows the power of technology. Today, you can see differences between Israel and Nigeria. Nigeria is a huge country from a population standpoint. And Israel, a tiny country that's smaller than New Jersey, has a bigger GDP and a stronger military, and it's all because of technology. And so the people who say that we can't reindustrialize because China has a bigger population or, you know, our people are more expensive, I think, are totally missing the plot. I think I'm a believer that AI will far from replacing humans altogether will actually give humans superpowers, workers superpowers, and will massively increase productivity.

    2025-08-28 · No Priors · Reshaping America’s Economy for the Superintelligence Century with Jacob Helberg · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  28. Erode the competitive advantages in labor costs that developing countries have. And we have an opportunity to re-industrialize. And to appreciate the extent to which AI can give us that opportunity, I think you can look at history and the first industrial revolution when industrial output in Britain, because Britain industrialized China at the time did not. So it's an interesting comparison because Britain was obviously a tiny country by population from a population standpoint and a much more advanced country than China. But because of technology, Britain had an industrial output per capita that was over 50 times the industrial output per capita of China. And Britain's GDP far surpassed China. China's GDP in

    2025-08-28 · No Priors · Reshaping America’s Economy for the Superintelligence Century with Jacob Helberg · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  29. Completely, completely. And I think so, I mean, the fascinating thing is, you know, as you guys know, in Peter Teal zero to one, he talks about how you can either compete vertically or horizontally, horizontally as globalization vertical competition is innovation. And I think the basic paradigm is for a lot of the 2000s, we were really growing our economy horizontally through globalization, and we weren't really growing a whole lot vertically. And the interesting thing is the last seven years or so, I would argue growth has actually picked up a lot. And to really appreciate the potential impact that AI can have on productivity, if we increase productivity, it will totally...

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  30. School, they used to teach us that it was almost part of a natural evolutionary process that when you reach a mature stage in economic development, you know, your economy evolves into a service economy and it's just the natural order of things. And I actually think AI offers advanced economies, so to speak, a massive opportunity to violate that narrative.

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  31. On a floor for a price, because what happens when these big off-take agreements, when a Western refinery tries to compete with China, is China will artificially sink the price, the global price, depress it in order to put Western alternatives out of business, and then they raise the price again, which is classic monopolistic behavior. We can fix that with off-take agreements and a price floor. And I think the MP DOD deal offers a good blueprint for that.

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  32. Skyrocket. So, what happened was they pursued a very aggressive industrial policy to build refinering capacity in China. And they started to flood the market, which sunk the price and started to really squeeze refineries located in the West, in Australia and Canada and in the United States. We actually have refineries. Historically, we have had refineries. And there's a huge refinery in Tennessee. There are refineries in Arizona and Georgia. And so the solution to help put the genie back in the bottle is, I think, actually the DOD's deal with MP materials offers a good template, which is you need an anchor buyer and an end customer, and you need a price floor. So you need to agree with the supplier, in this case MP material.

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  33. China only emerged as a rare earth mining superpower about ten years ago. It came out in 2015 with its made in China 2025 plan. And from that date onwards, we actually saw China's refining activity of rare earth materials.

    2025-08-28 · No Priors · Reshaping America’s Economy for the Superintelligence Century with Jacob Helberg · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  34. A national security issue to do that because obviously their footprint in some of these places has proven problematic. But it's also good for our companies because as we've seen with their export controls on rare earth magnets, the last thing we need as a country is for our best companies to beg Beijing for permission to get licenses for rare earth magnets in order to manufacture cutting-edge technological products.

    2025-08-28 · No Priors · Reshaping America’s Economy for the Superintelligence Century with Jacob Helberg · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  35. Yeah, so that's such an important question. And the answer is that China is obviously a systemic rival. Some people say it's an adversary. regardless of the flavor that one wants to characterize it with, they're definitely a rival. They have fundamentally a different view of how the world should be run than we do. A lot of what they have been doing internationally to compete with us really flows from, is an outflow of the fact that they are the world's factory floor, so their presence in Africa, I'm sure you guys have read articles that lament how China's taken over Africa. They're all over Latin America. They have the Belt and Road Initiative. All of that is a byproduct of the fact that they produce

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  36. Tigers. And that's where, and you're kind of seeing a little bit of a window into this in Ukraine where AI is really AI and autonomy is really changing outcomes on the battlefield. So those different trends are incredibly fascinating to watch.

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  37. Rare earth magnet production. And the last one is to, you know, one that you touched upon a lot, which is we're seeing a global trend across the world where governments are spending a lot more on defense. A record high was reached this year with 2.7 trillion in global spending on defense. 60% of that came from countries that very large countries like the US, China, Russia, India, and Germany. And the big trillion dollar question is, what will they spend that money on? And the answer might actually really define the shape of hard power in the 21st century. As you guys know, I mean, a government is a little bit like a company. If you don't allocate capital efficiently and you actually end up wasting it, you could have a situation where some of these governments have militaries that are paying.

    2025-08-28 · No Priors · Reshaping America’s Economy for the Superintelligence Century with Jacob Helberg · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  38. I've seen analysis that basically says that it's added a full point of GDP just for AI in the last year, which is a lot because the economy grew 3%. So if a third of that came from AI infrastructure, that's a lot. Energy infrastructure is another really big one. For the first time since 2008, we're actually seeing an uptick in national demand for energy. Our total electricity supply has flatlined since 2008, which is just an interesting statistic that I've recently come across. And now we're seeing that trend change. And the other one is raw industrial. So things like mineral production, the DOD has forged a strategic partnership with a firm called MP Materials for $750 million to reboot.

    2025-08-28 · No Priors · Reshaping America’s Economy for the Superintelligence Century with Jacob Helberg · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  39. Investment, as you guys know, that has really picked up in a statistically significant way. It's over 2% of GDP right now, and it's probably going to double by next year. Part of that is the result of tax incentives. Part of that is just making it easier to get permitting. Because as you guys know, a lot of this stuff boils down to how do you compress the window when you want to make a CapEx investment the business people make a decision about whether or not it's going to take seven years or five years to actually get something up and running and compressing that window as much as possible actually really moves the needle

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  40. Effect of all of these different policies combined with incredibly fast-paced progress in artificial intelligence is actually changing the makeup of our economy. And we're starting to see that in the data because for a long time, the American economy was primarily a consumption-driven economy. We have at different points in time for the last few decades been between 70 and 80 percent consumption driven over two-thirds of our economy have been entirely driven by services. And about 10% has been manufacturing. And we're starting to see those numbers move. And the manufacturing makeup of our economy as a share of GDP has remained as of now roughly the same, but that's a lagging indicator. The more interesting one is we're seeing massive capex.

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  41. Yeah, totally. So one of the fascinating things about the discurrent era and decade that we're in is we're actually really seeing the juxtaposition between the macroeconomic effects of the policies implemented by the Trump administration juxtaposed with incredibly powerful technological shifts, especially in artificial intelligence. And what I mean by that is President Trump came in and instated a Blitz Creek of policy reforms, fast-tracking data center permits. On day one, he rolled out an EO to unleash American energy to facilitate and support the production, to surge production capacity for energy sources like oil, gas, and nuclear, as well as clean, beautiful coal, as he says. And so the net.

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  42. A few of the topics that I discussed in my opening statement and my Senate confirmation are focused on securing our supply chains. Our economy is extremely over-reliant on a supply chain system that's very brittle. We have 90% reliance on critical minerals that are refined in China, on semiconductors that are manufactured in Taiwan. We have one of the best innovation ecosystems in the world, but that innovation ecosystem is sitting on top of a supply chain system that is very exposed to potential geopolitical disruptions. And so helping move the needle to forge new partnerships with other countries to secure that is indispensable, as well as supporting ongoing efforts by the administration to reshore as much as we can right here in the US would really go a long way to help give our builders the tools that they need to do what they do best, which is build products people love that are disruptive.

    2025-08-28 · No Priors · Reshaping America’s Economy for the Superintelligence Century with Jacob Helberg · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT