YouSaid · the spoken record

Jake Dollarhide

lines on the record: 11
first: 2020-11-13
most recent: 2020-11-13
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

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“Expectation and really need on a society basis for unemployment given it so high to get more of the sort of bridge to the other side, if you will, some fiscal stimulus extended unemployment benefits, things like that. I think a concern would be if you don't have a sufficient amount and size and timing of that, that would cause some concerns about slowdown in the economy. I think those are three primary risks that we think about.”
2020-11-13 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Markets Update: A Biden Presidency, a Possible Vaccine and the Future of the S&P · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So, a couple of important risks. Clearly, the spike in COVID-19 cases is concerning. That is probably going to remain an issue for the next several months. We're in the Northern Hemisphere, and it's colder weather. So that does raise the concerns. So this is happening before there's an ability to manufacture and deliver enough of the potential vaccines. So that's one primary risk. And I would say that's a point of uncertainty. Investors ultimately will start to look through that in terms of a path to normalization. The second you could think about is some of the balance sheet issues. There's quite a lot of leverage that companies have taken on in terms of operating their business over the last seven, eight, nine months in the heart of the pandemic. So revenues are down for many companies. They've taken on more debt. The idea of does the economy recover and what exactly is the ability of particularly small and mid-sized businesses to accommodate that? I would say the fiscal stimulus would be the third item that there is some”
2020-11-13 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Markets Update: A Biden Presidency, a Possible Vaccine and the Future of the S&P · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So, the way to make money is a portfolio manager is to have a view, have that view be different from consensus, and have consensus move towards your view. That's if you're a portfolio manager. Same thing as a strategist, as an investor. Basically, have a view that maybe is different from consensus and have that gap narrow. And so our forecast on earnings, if you think about profits for next year, $175 of S&P 500 earnings, the average of the other strategists is around $155. So that's why.”
2020-11-13 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Markets Update: A Biden Presidency, a Possible Vaccine and the Future of the S&P · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So, the healthcare sector, Jake, is the lowest valuation, the cheapest relative valuation to the market in 40 years. That is a really powerful statement. You have to go all the way back to when the Clinton originally in 1993 or when Hillary Clinton was looking to help restructure part of the healthcare sector when stocks traded at a low level. Ten years ago in heart of the Obamacare debates, healthcare stocks traded at pretty low levels. But we're even more of a discount today. That's how dramatic it's been. And so that's a value opportunity set is uncertainty on policy, but ultimately that is an area of focus. Historically, the sector often dips down and trades, underperforms, heading into the election. And then once the election is passed, the sector tends to rally. There's always considered uncertainty around policy involving health care. These are the stocks. They start out.”
2020-11-13 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Markets Update: A Biden Presidency, a Possible Vaccine and the Future of the S&P · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Is extremely wide, much, much wider than normal. And so if we think about looking into the next year, what kind of strategies, the more probable outcome is that you have some of the median stocks, a typical company probably outperforms some of these larger companies. Doesn't mean these larger companies don't do well. It just means on a relative basis, you probably have some catch-up. And that's one of the areas that we focused on as a opportunity set in the market. It's been a big topic of conversation with clients this week.”
2020-11-13 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Markets Update: A Biden Presidency, a Possible Vaccine and the Future of the S&P · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So, the story of 2020 is all about, we'll call it big tech and the five largest stocks in the market, Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, and Google, collectively, they account for nearly a quarter of the S&P 500 equity capitalization. So roughly a quarter of the market is represented by five companies. We've never had a level of market concentration this high in history. So it's very, very chunky market use that terminology. And these stocks are up nearly 50% since the start of the year, up 50%. The other 495 stocks are basically up around 4%. So if we think about the nature of the return structure, market structure concept, that really it's been the story of these companies and the gap between the overall index performance and the typical stock.”
2020-11-13 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Markets Update: A Biden Presidency, a Possible Vaccine and the Future of the S&P · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“The forecast for the end of this year is 3700. And so we lifted that by about 100 points as we had anticipated or telegraphed and our report back in September saying that if you had a divided government, you were likely to get the market moving a little bit higher. In fact, our forecast remains now or is 3,700 on the SP 500. And equally important, if we look into 2021, we published earlier this week our outlook for the new year, and we have a 4,300 target at the end of 2021. So that's basically from this level forward, Jake, almost 20% return to equities over the next 14 months. And that's driven largely by the normalization of the economy, equity markets, earnings going along with that. And ultimately, that's taking the equity prices with them, interest rates staying super low. But $3,700 this year, that's giving you an upside of about 4% plus or minus, depending on the day.”
2020-11-13 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Markets Update: A Biden Presidency, a Possible Vaccine and the Future of the S&P · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So, in response to my last question, I didn't mean to suggest that the election was totally unimportant, it was just that the magnitude of the virus was still important, therefore the vaccine's critical. So there is a lot of uncertainty, even though the Senate would appear likely to remain in the Republican hands and more importantly to say that there's a divided government, divided Congress, the uncertainty does remain that won't be resolved clearly until the 5th of January. So a couple of more months of a little bit of uncertainty. But broadly speaking, what the market is expecting is that it's going to be a divided government. That is one of the reasons why the market rallied as well, because you had a reduction in uncertainty. So policy uncertainty is one of the key measures we look at, and that has come down because the likelihood of major legislation with respect to either taxes or fiscal stimulus becomes less probable and a reduction in uncertainty is also associated with a”
2020-11-13 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Markets Update: A Biden Presidency, a Possible Vaccine and the Future of the S&P · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Okay, so while the presidential election has been decided with the apologies to the holdouts, control of Congress remains up in the air, how do you see that affecting policy initiatives out of Washington”
2020-11-13 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Markets Update: A Biden Presidency, a Possible Vaccine and the Future of the S&P · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Importance and the consequences of the vaccine really can't be overstated. It came a little bit sooner, Jake, than maybe we had been anticipating, but thinking closer to the latter part of November. So there was a bit of a surprise that it came when it did. But ultimately, that is more important. And what did you see in the equity market? The rally in the stocks that depend on a more normalized society. So those would be hotels, the cruise lines, airlines, all these stocks that had reason now to be able to rally because people could look into the future and bring that more normal environment forward. So I think that was the real critical issue from a equity market perspective.”
2020-11-13 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Markets Update: A Biden Presidency, a Possible Vaccine and the Future of the S&P · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So absolutely, the vaccine was much more important than the election. Of course, it's always exciting and interesting to talk about the election, but we have to keep front and center that this was and is a public health crisis that started nearly a year ago and ultimately solution to that crisis requires a medical advance. And of course, the breakthrough, it appears to be a breakthrough by Pfizer on its vaccine is a significant development because for the first time at least have a vision or a path, a perceived path to how you get to a more normalized society. And so the reason that the vaccine is so critical is from Goldman Sachs' macro research point of view in our forecast from a market's perspective, this is supportive of a view that the economy is actually going to be growing pretty rapidly in 2021. That supports a higher equity market and a whole bunch of other things.”
2020-11-13 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Markets Update: A Biden Presidency, a Possible Vaccine and the Future of the S&P · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT