YouSaid · the spoken record

Jake Dunlap

lines on the record: 41
first: 2017-06-16
most recent: 2017-06-16
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

Every line below is reproduced as it was said and linked to the record it came from. Nothing here is summarised or generated. Directory · Search · Corrections

“I think it's just accessibility. Consumers that weren't able to access or afford certain items or services in the past because of technology disruption and data and all these things that we're talking about will be able to experience things that they weren't able to experience five, 10, 15 years ago.”
2017-06-16 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Retail: Online, Offline, All the Time · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I think less friction costs from the standpoint of, of course, there was an ability to hail a cab, but using ride sharing just makes it in certain areas of the country so much easier to do that. I think you're going to see that. Less friction costs, seamless interaction between yourself and products and services that you couldn't have done before the advent of the smartphone”
2017-06-16 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Retail: Online, Offline, All the Time · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And I also think that there are going to be new categories that we don't even know. So where I see a tremendous amount of differentiating growth is on things that are enabled by technology, so consumer services and using the obvious example of ride sharing. That didn't even exist in the form that it is today yet a few years ago. And there's lots of those ancillary services. They're so much easier to provide now that technology has become so embedded in our daily lives.”
2017-06-16 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Retail: Online, Offline, All the Time · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“My lens is any industry that has not really seen material technology disruption is poised for the biggest opportunities and the highest growth. Think about health and wellness, medicine. Think about food and grocery. Apparel actually is a highly penetrated sector, but there's a lot of opportunity there if you think about how traditional retailers 20 years ago sold product to consumers versus what they could do today. But there's actually a lot happening in digital auto as another example. But any industry that has relatively little technology innovation to date to me is where there's the biggest opportunity going forward and it includes all those categories I mentioned.”
2017-06-16 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Retail: Online, Offline, All the Time · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So, from an operational and strategy perspective, you're absolutely right, Kim, they're looking everywhere for those technology-oriented people, and it is very hard to attract them. Although I would say they're having some success in part because the opportunity is so great. So much that can be done within some of these traditional retailers, and at the same time, I do think from the end user, the employee base that's on the sales floor is getting a lot of investment on the part of the retailer in order to provide this differentiated experience.”
2017-06-16 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Retail: Online, Offline, All the Time · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“In their employees, the better the ultimate experience will be for the customer. So I believe there may be fewer retail jobs in the future, but they may be far more interesting and ones that come with greater investment into the employee.”
2017-06-16 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Retail: Online, Offline, All the Time · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“It's going to take retraining on the part of a lot of these people. On the more positive side, I think those retailers who have figured out that this was coming and have picked the brightest and best and are investing a great deal amongst their workforce to have less turnover because turnover is very expensive and retail is always in fairness been a high turnover environment. But I think there's a real need for better people as it results to providing that experience that we talked about that's so vital to the retailers. The retail experience needs to be more than just about selling product. It needs to be a sense of community. It needs to be an education in some ways. It needs to be a real high service providing situation. And as a result of that, the employees that are working within the retailers need to be better trained, better supported, and the more that those companies are invested.”
2017-06-16 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Retail: Online, Offline, All the Time · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“It's a great question. It's a real issue. I mean, retail employs an enormous number of people in the United States. And as you've well said, that has continued to go down. There's been more than 3,000 stores closed year to date, and I suspect that will continue until we get to this point of stabilization. And so I do believe, and I do believe those people aren't”
2017-06-16 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Retail: Online, Offline, All the Time · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I would say generally my client base has been looking forward to tax reform and the possibility of tax reform, but just given the uncertainty, which you said, people aren't waiting for tax reform because there's just too much uncertainty about when and if it comes. And so they're not meaningfully changing their strategies in anticipation of things like that. I don't know if that's different for you, Kath.”
2017-06-16 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Retail: Online, Offline, All the Time · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“A hundred percent many of the earlier adopters, whether they were young people or more affluent people, that phenomenon still exists to some extent, but many of the most interesting e-commerce companies and retail companies are innovating to bring those services and products to the mass market. That's, I think, actually one of the most interesting themes we're seeing today.”
2017-06-16 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Retail: Online, Offline, All the Time · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“One thing everyone talks about is that early adopters in the space are young people, and that makes a lot of sense. One thing people don't talk as much about is the income stratification. And obviously a lot of the early adopters are people who value convenience and have more income than they have time. And so it just made their lives easier. Is that changing as these services broaden their popularity?”
2017-06-16 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Retail: Online, Offline, All the Time · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Think there's also this overlay where the consumer, and maybe this is a generational shift, but the consumer isn't looking for ownership in the same way that they were before as it relates to sharing economy question. And I think that there's other elements that the consumer cares about now. So they care about flexibility, optionality, access as opposed to purely ownership, and that changes what retailers are offering to them. They care about community, as Kathy mentioned, and relationship with brand. And so I think that's actually a pretty fundamental shift, certainly in some industries, like transportation and hospitality, that actually will fundamentally change those industries.”
2017-06-16 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Retail: Online, Offline, All the Time · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So it becomes the community center of the technology world. And I think where you can use the physical space to drive personal connectivity will also drive sales and will bring all of these different pieces together.”
2017-06-16 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Retail: Online, Offline, All the Time · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“The most successful retail concepts will absolutely marry this sharing economy notion that in large measure came from the internet world. And what I mean by that is, so let's take an example, there's selling a cup of coffee in some coffee shops, then there's actually creating an environment where people can sit, take their laptops out, enjoy the coffee, but also have a sense of community in a place to be. That model is what's going to shape the best-in-class retailers. Some grocery stores, as you probably well know, have sushi bars inside them or wonderful restaurants inside them. That's going to drive traffic and provide the experience, which is the complete combination of exactly what we were talking about earlier about the convergence of all these different themes. One other example, some tech stores, some smartphone stores are now offering classes, not just around their phone, but around a lot of different aspects of technology.”
2017-06-16 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Retail: Online, Offline, All the Time · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Some of the best known consumer brands today are actually interesting because they're in some sense not retail. If we think about the big sharing economy companies, they're sort of capitalizing on the fact that people don't want to buy a second home or they don't want to buy a big ticket item like a car or something like that. So how is that changing the way that we think about retail itself? Like some companies are increasingly positioning themselves as just brokers between individuals rather than traditional retail. Will that sharing economy mentality come to retail?”
2017-06-16 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Retail: Online, Offline, All the Time · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I think it's been harder for the broader startup community to raise capital, which is not necessarily a bad thing because over the past few years relative to, let's call it three, four, five years ago, it's been harder to raise private capital. And so I think for the most part, this is a generalization. The startups have been really focused on long-term sustainability and building, like I said, self-sustaining businesses. Most of them are not building businesses to be sold. Again, the ones that have really achieved scale, growth, brand are really building businesses to be standalone over the long term.”
2017-06-16 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Retail: Online, Offline, All the Time · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“They're building their own brand, they're building their own businesses, they're focused on developing sustainable long-term business models. We've gone through different phases of the capital raising environment. There have been harder and easier times to raise external capital.”
2017-06-16 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Retail: Online, Offline, All the Time · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So when we think about some of the startups and some of the disruptors as acquisition targets, since online retail is such a big volume game, how does that impact the way some of these companies position themselves for potential buyer, some of the startup and disruptor type companies?”
2017-06-16 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Retail: Online, Offline, All the Time · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I think it's more about innovation. Look, we do have still 1,200 malls in the United States. Some estimates say that maybe it should be half the size. The best malls still continue to perform well. I think the malls that aren't performing as well will definitely evolve. And what's interesting is if you think about the fact that consumer confidence has consistently gone up since the financial crisis, in addition to that, consumer disposable income has also increased year over year over year. And that means there's money to be spent. It's just being spent in a different way. And so it's not just about e-commerce versus brick and mortar. It's also about how are people spending and it's travel, it's restaurants, it's media, it's entertainment, it's lodging versus the more accessories, apparel, and personal consumer goods we saw in the past. So for malls, that means more movie theaters, more restaurants.”
2017-06-16 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Retail: Online, Offline, All the Time · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“But we've certainly seen some going outside the urban area. We've certainly seen some places where real estate value seems to have collapsed because mall traffic's down, people are buying more online. Is that an inexorable trend or just mall operators and others going to have to innovate?”
2017-06-16 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Retail: Online, Offline, All the Time · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I think again it depends on who you are as the retailer. So if you are a luxury goods player, that space on Fifth Avenue is incredibly valuable one for traffic, two for advertising, and that's probably a place that because the cost of the spend is relatively high, you're going to have more people want to physically go into that store. I think if you are a food distribution company who's servicing groceries directly into a home through online, that red hook space is going to be much more valuable. So I think, again, it depends on the exact type of business that you're trying to serve.”
2017-06-16 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Retail: Online, Offline, All the Time · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So we've seen a little bit of this change in the real estate that retail brands are looking at. What real estate's more valuable today, the spot right on Fifth Avenue? Or is it the warehouse and Redhook where you can service your customers more quickly?”
2017-06-16 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Retail: Online, Offline, All the Time · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yep, and I think it's very hard. And that's why relatively few startup e-commerce companies actually get to scale and maintain growth and get to long-term sustainable margins. There are software and services available today that are accessible to all those early stage retail or e-commerce companies that make it much easier for them to scale in the early years, whether it's payments, functionality, shipping, whether it's using marketplace businesses. People typically think that e-commerce is just you build your website on a desktop, but you also have to do it on a mobile phone. There's all these services. You could do IT services, you could do software as a service, there's other elements that you can literally outsource and leverage to actually scale your business in the early years that are much more affordable than doing it yourself. And it allows you to focus on your core competency, whatever it may be, whether you're a retailer or an e-commerce company. So I think it's much easier net net today than 10 plus years ago, but it's a real challenge.”
2017-06-16 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Retail: Online, Offline, All the Time · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“That's a good point, Kim. And I think the only thing I'd add, Jake, is that it's also about perhaps ways to drive traffic in the store. So if something has been successful online in a brand that resonates with consumers, if there's an in-store placement, could that possibly drive more traffic in the store? So it's all those things plus potentially traffic drivers.”
2017-06-16 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Retail: Online, Offline, All the Time · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So that's point one. I think to our conversation, there's a lot of benefit in having a strategy offline and online, and because consumers engage with products and brands differently, and you want to give consumers choice an option. And if you don't have an offline strategy, I think you're limiting yourself. If you don't have an online strategy, you're also limiting yourself. And so as it relates to the M&A question, what the traditional retailers are looking for when they make acquisitions around e-commerce are really it's growth, but it's more importantly it's innovation, it's disruption, it's the talent, you know, the engineers, the product developers, it's all of that that actually creates the growth. The growth is almost the output, not the input, for when people are willing to pay premiums for those assets.”
2017-06-16 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Retail: Online, Offline, All the Time · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“There's been this cross current outside of M&A of brands that were built online looking for offline presence. And I think that cross current is a really important observation because I think those companies have observed what we said earlier, 90% of consumers still shop offline. So you can't ignore 90% of a consumer population if you're really trying to build a global brand.”
2017-06-16 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Retail: Online, Offline, All the Time · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And I think what's interesting is it continues to be a convergence where perhaps on some of the more e-com oriented companies, the data was the driver and for the retailers, the merchandise was the driver. Both need to evolve the same way we were talking about just being fully omnichannel. What I mean by that is I think the retailers need to get a lot better about collecting and using data and the e-com players need to start really upping the game as to how they create a sense of community and maybe even a physical presence as we're seeing many of the e-com players are opening up stores.”
2017-06-16 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Retail: Online, Offline, All the Time · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“location based targeting and understanding the right frequency to do it for you, Jake versus Kathy versus me the last time you purchased at the store, was it that particular store versus another one? All of that is coming.”
2017-06-16 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Retail: Online, Offline, All the Time · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“maybe it's limited to some retailers, but if I have an app, sometimes I walk by a store, they'll know I'm there. And I assume there's more of that coming, right? And they'll start guarding me into the store and luring me in with deals”
2017-06-16 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Retail: Online, Offline, All the Time · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I think it's a great point, Jake. What I would say from a retailer perspective, if you go on a site, I, the retailer, in an e-commerce sense, can watch everything you do, how many shirts you clicked on, how many pairs of shoes you looked at, what you looked at, and I can collect all that data. The second you walk into my physical store, I have no idea what you're doing. I don't know how you're spending your time. I don't learn anything about your preferences. It's a much harder dynamic to collect the kind of data that Kim's talking about to begin with. And if you're what we call a broad lines retailer, a retailer that effectively is a distribution house for various brands, you don't really collect much data at all.”
2017-06-16 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Retail: Online, Offline, All the Time · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“or the people to analyze it. So you have to understand the data set first, but then you have to be able to analyze it and apply it to strategies to be able to potentially change a merchandising strategy or change a supply chain strategy. And I think that 20 years ago, people didn't have the ability to analyze the data and apply it in the same way as they do today.”
2017-06-16 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Retail: Online, Offline, All the Time · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I agree with Kathy. I'd say two things since the late 90s. Number one, mobile, as Kathy alluded to, and number two technology and data. So mobile, here's a statistic that's interesting. 91% of Americans have their mobile phone with an arms reach 24-7. So if you think about the computing capabilities of a phone and how much a consumer is engaging with his or her phone day in, day out, then there's just opportunity that didn't exist before to drive commerce through that device. Mobile commerce is growing 30% year over year relative to e-commerce, which Kathy mentioned is 10, 15% in retail, low single digits. And so I think mobile has been game changing and will continue to be game changing, especially in countries where there's more mobile penetration. And then data, think about all the data that exists on consumers, what they buy, why they buy, when they buy, where they buy. And retailers historically have not had the infrastructure.”
2017-06-16 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Retail: Online, Offline, All the Time · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Think again, if you think about what the internet provides, it's breadth and depth and convenience. And while that existed, there wasn't the connective tissue from the customer to that opportunity until really smartphones, which if you think about it, there were smartphones back in the early 90s, but it wasn't until the iPhone launch in 2007, which is still relatively new that really changed the paradigm in a material way.”
2017-06-16 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Retail: Online, Offline, All the Time · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I don't want to wait in line. I don't want to carry it home, whatever it is. So I just take out my phone and I buy it in the store. I don't know. Is that a brick and mortar sale? And I think this whole concept of to Kim's earliest best point on just omnichannel, what really matters is engaging the customer and selling product regardless of the specific channel, because I'm not so sure we even have a great handle on that anymore.”
2017-06-16 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Retail: Online, Offline, All the Time · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And I would just add to that, and we talk about success, do we mean profitability? Because a lot of the e-com companies have created scale and growth. That is phenomenal and wonderful customer service. But when you're ordering five of something and returning four, that's a tough business model to make profitable. I think the complexity in part comes from, I don't know what a brick and mortar sale really is anymore versus an online sale So pick a specialty retailer. I walk in. I try on the sweater. I like the sweater. But I look over and I realize that there's two people in line and decide.”
2017-06-16 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Retail: Online, Offline, All the Time · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yet we touched on it a bit, depends on how you define success. I don't think that success is 100% e-commerce. I don't think success is 100% offline. It has to be a marriage of the two. And success to me is what is best for that consumer in that particular vertical for that particular product. And there's different approaches from an e-commerce standpoint. There's very different models. There's direct to consumer. There's marketplace models. There's classic e-retail models. And how you define success across each of them actually varies quite a lot. The cost structure of each of those types of businesses varies. And so we have to be very specific and we're finding in a lot of the companies we're spending time with that the definitions of success are actually quite different. If you have a consumer that's engaging with your brand and you built a brand online first and they're spending hours a day engaging with your brand in different ways, whether it's research, whether it's sharing things with friends, posting things on social media, whatever, I think that's actually very successful.”
2017-06-16 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Retail: Online, Offline, All the Time · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So e-commerce is obviously growing as a portion of the pie, but the biggest players are garnering much of the new spending. Amazon and Alibaba, for instance, today represent about 1% of global GDP through the total value of what they're selling across their platforms. In our own research shop predicts that will double by 2018. So from a business perspective, where are we in terms of determining how successful a digital first strategy can be?”
2017-06-16 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Retail: Online, Offline, All the Time · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, Kathy mentioned this, the grocery industry is 1% penetrated. It's an $800 billion US addressable market. Huge industry, only 1% penetrated. There will be continued disruption in technology innovation in that sector. And apparel is much more, 30-40%. So it very much depends on the vertical.”
2017-06-16 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Retail: Online, Offline, All the Time · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And I think that's a great point. I'll just pick up on that for a second because if you think about that, you know, media books, toys, the penetration is 50 to 60 percent and continuing to increase, things that you want breadth and depth that you don't necessarily need to touch and feel. Where food and beverages less than 10%. So call it 7-8% penetration. And I suspect that will increase over time. But I don't suspect it ever gets to 50 or 60%.”
2017-06-16 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Retail: Online, Offline, All the Time · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I think that's the key point. I don't think the paradigm is one or the other. I think going forward, it's omnichannel, and the answer changes in terms of penetration across region and across vertical, and the way consumers choose to buy those particular products or services in each of those verticals and regions.”
2017-06-16 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Retail: Online, Offline, All the Time · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I think that we are seeing a fundamental shift. I guess I just step back and say that global retail sales are about $23 trillion of that about $2 trillion is actually an e-commerce. So it's a relatively small slice, call it 8 to 9% of overall sales. Having said that, as Kim and I talk a lot about, the retail sales are overall growing about 1% to 2% in brick and mortar, but e-com is growing at 14 to 15. So the real question becomes, is you have a retail world that's sort of speeding up and slowing down at the same time. And that's creating a lot of turbulence. And until that retreating and advancing that's happening concurrently settles to some sort of equilibrium, I think we're going to continue to see lots of changes and lots of shifts. We're never going to be 100% brick and mortar. I personally don't think we're ever going to be 100% eco-cons.”
2017-06-16 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Retail: Online, Offline, All the Time · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT