YouSaid · the spoken record

James Seyffart

lines on the record: 72
first: 2026-02-25
most recent: 2026-02-25
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

Every line below is reproduced as it was said and linked to the record it came from. Nothing here is summarised or generated. Directory · Search · Corrections

“Yeah, it's fun, and I'm a huge fan of you guys. I listen to most of these and I listen pretty trivially week to you, Coyne and Tyler or whoever's on that week. So keep the good word, guys.”
2026-02-25 · Forward Guidance · What ETF Flows Are Telling Us About Investor Appetite | James Seyffart · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, I mean, it's wild. I was going to say something right before you said that, and I'm blanking on where I was going to go with that. Shoot. It was a really good point. It's all right. We'll move on.”
2026-02-25 · Forward Guidance · What ETF Flows Are Telling Us About Investor Appetite | James Seyffart · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“They belong in. It feels like regardless, we need to figure this out how do we take these illiquid things that get marked every quarter into something that's liquid and traded every day? Because more and more the trend is of companies that stay private for much longer. And, you know, we see this right now with like Anthropic. Everybody wants to own Anthropic to the point where I've seen people go out and buy Zoom as a stock because they own a bit of anthropic. It's like crazy. Like, people are going for anything.”
2026-02-25 · Forward Guidance · What ETF Flows Are Telling Us About Investor Appetite | James Seyffart · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So it's a good market. It's interesting. Private assets is huge Going forward, but I don't know. I don't know if they belong. It feels like”
2026-02-25 · Forward Guidance · What ETF Flows Are Telling Us About Investor Appetite | James Seyffart · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I mean, the ETF was trading at a 30% discount, and people are like, it's broken. But like you talk to anyone on a high yield muni trading desk when people were like worried about these small markets going out of business, it was just no bid, no bid, no bid. So there was like literally no trading happening. So the nav wasn't moving, but everyone who was trading these things was like, yeah, I'm not touching this for anything less than a 30% hair clip”
2026-02-25 · Forward Guidance · What ETF Flows Are Telling Us About Investor Appetite | James Seyffart · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“There was an ETF to track those things. And it traded every day. The nav didn't move because there was no underlying strike price. And both cases, Egypt and Greek that we have to look at were the underlying market was closed for a long time. And then like you look at the nav, it's just flat and the price of the stock, the ETF was moving. And all of a sudden the stock opens and then they're like in line. Like the price of the underlying assets open in line with what the ETS were holding. So the ETFs are very good at like price discovering and figuring things out. So even if they look at their training at a huge discount, it's probably a reason for it. Another example is like the high yield muni market and during COVID.”
2026-02-25 · Forward Guidance · What ETF Flows Are Telling Us About Investor Appetite | James Seyffart · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“It's just that investors don't want them. They tend to have higher fees. You're locked up, which you probably should be if you're investing in these types of assets. My boss, we argue all the time because he's like, just let him put in the ETF. Like it'll trade at a discount and then people at least can sell if they want to sell. And I'm like, maybe if you're buying these things, you shouldn't be allowed to sell on like, you know, 2 p.m. on a Tuesday because you're on a whim. But that is one of the benefits of the ETS, right? So even if you're holding something like when Egypt closed as an economy during the Arab Spring or Greek during the Greek financial.”
2026-02-25 · Forward Guidance · What ETF Flows Are Telling Us About Investor Appetite | James Seyffart · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, I mean, at the end of the day. Are you going to try to push a lot of different things in the ETF wrapper? I would argue that private credit and private equity and things like that belong better in something like closed-in fund structure or an interval fund.”
2026-02-25 · Forward Guidance · What ETF Flows Are Telling Us About Investor Appetite | James Seyffart · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“The exposure to these things, private credit, private equity, an ETF wrapper, but it doesn't fit that well, particularly if something just doesn't trade. I will say the ETF wrapper for the most part, even if they do get these things in, there's limits on how much it can have. So theoretically, you can only have 15% of an illiquid investment in an ETF. Ron Barron has actually broken that because he's basically calling SpaceX stock now less liquid rather than e-liquid, which is like you can self-certify what it is, which is fascinating. So that's another area we're watching.”
2026-02-25 · Forward Guidance · What ETF Flows Are Telling Us About Investor Appetite | James Seyffart · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Low CapEx and you just kind of like add money on and like That looks stable cash flows look really good if you're trying to lend money to somebody. And if that is potentially going to be disrupted, whether it's five years from now or whatever, a couple years from now, that is almost certainly what's happening with private credit. I would say related to all this is like there's a lot of push from different issuers. And honestly from investors to take private assets, whether it's private equity, private credit, and put them into the ETF wrapper, which is something we've been talking about a lot on our team. So there's a lot of put like XOVR is an ETF that has exposure to SpaceX via an SPV and it had like, I don't know, a 10% allocation, but so much money has come in that the allocation has gone down, but people are still buying it to get exposure to SpaceX, mostly, and we're guessing. And like it's such a small portion of the portfolio. And the problem is people want.”
2026-02-25 · Forward Guidance · What ETF Flows Are Telling Us About Investor Appetite | James Seyffart · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Guess is a nice thing to say. Yeah. Well, to that point about going a mile wide. I think one last interesting sector to talk about. I don't know if you've been looking into it much of it. It's just around the private credit side and what's been going on there. And some people speculate that it's just a mirrored version of what's going on in software. But I'm curious if you look into that much and just this trend of these private credit pieces that have just been struggling lately.”
2026-02-25 · Forward Guidance · What ETF Flows Are Telling Us About Investor Appetite | James Seyffart · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Every sector, every theme, everything you could think of has an ETF, so we can always try to look into what's going on and whether it's what issuers are launching, where money is going, where money is leaving, all those things. So that's why I love my job, which is, I guess, is a nice thing to say.”
2026-02-25 · Forward Guidance · What ETF Flows Are Telling Us About Investor Appetite | James Seyffart · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I think it's awesome. That's one of the reasons I love being an ETF NS. Obviously, a lot of the last few years, and I've spent a lot of time specializing in crypto, but I do a lot of stuff with the alternative stuff, the alternative ETFs, anything that's kind of out of the ordinary is where I found a niche, like explaining what's going on. And one of the reasons I love is because I can be kind of mile wide, inch deep. And then when I really need to on a certain thing like crypto, like some of these other things, I can worry about going mile deep on those. But for the most part, like we're looking at ETS and what's going on with the market. And it's like”
2026-02-25 · Forward Guidance · What ETF Flows Are Telling Us About Investor Appetite | James Seyffart · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I think it's so cool. Like, there's so much to look into right now. Like, I'm, you know, one looking at what's going on with uranium that I'm looking at like, yeah, industrials. We're not just all buying, it's not just all one trade anymore, right? Like we spent a decade where it's like, you know, the Tina, right? Like, there's no alternative. You just buy Mega Cap tech and you sit. And if you do anything else, you underperform. Like, it's great.”
2026-02-25 · Forward Guidance · What ETF Flows Are Telling Us About Investor Appetite | James Seyffart · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“At dispersion and broadening out here across sectors we spoke about. So I don't know. I think it's a healthy, it's very exciting for markets. Like as somebody who's been covering markets now for over 10 years, the last year and a half has been kind of insane to say.”
2026-02-25 · Forward Guidance · What ETF Flows Are Telling Us About Investor Appetite | James Seyffart · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Number two is materials, and number three is industrials. So, I mean, I was a little surprised that utilities are so low, but I think that's because it's kind of related to the AI trade. And then number four is thematic. So like some sort of thematic names. And if you look at thematic, like the biggest names are like natural resources and things like that. So it's like basically buying big name cash flowing hard asset type stuff. So the trend is showing up in ETFs too. It's not just showing up in the price performance. And I'm sure there's 100% names that are getting, you know, maybe thrown out with the bathwater type stuff. I'm not smart enough to know what those are, but I mean, honestly, if you're an active manager, like this is the type of environment you should be praying for because things are getting sold and bought indiscriminately in these baskets. And there's almost, I mean, I'm not going to sit here and say every name and software is going to be fine, but there's probably plenty that will and plenty that won't. And if you can pick that dispersion, like this is exactly what you want to be doing as an active manager, which I'm not.”
2026-02-25 · Forward Guidance · What ETF Flows Are Telling Us About Investor Appetite | James Seyffart · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Close. Metals isn't one of them. I think they would go into materials, but I'll give you materials. Materials is number two. Number one is energy.”
2026-02-25 · Forward Guidance · What ETF Flows Are Telling Us About Investor Appetite | James Seyffart · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I mean, here, I'll give you the largest sector inflows for equity ETFs in the first quarter of 2026. I'll give you a guess. Guess what the top three are? And I'll tell you what.”
2026-02-25 · Forward Guidance · What ETF Flows Are Telling Us About Investor Appetite | James Seyffart · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah. It's, I feel like people also, though, underestimate just the contrast and size of what you're saying there, billion dollars in the tech, you know, that's just another day. But like a billion dollars into, I don't know, industrials, the XLITS has just been like ripping recently. And, you know, nobody owns that and you put a billion dollars into there and it's starting to make a dent. It's crazy.”
2026-02-25 · Forward Guidance · What ETF Flows Are Telling Us About Investor Appetite | James Seyffart · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, I think and when you get that and you see money leaving or just not going into tech, like a billion into tech is a lot less impactful than a billion into industrials or consumer staples and it's showing up in the PE multiples and some of the names in these sectors, which is very interesting to see. I mean, some of it you could argue maybe was a rerating from like the people expecting the tariffs to get shot down and things along those lines. But no matter how you slice it, it looks like people are diversifying away from big tech, whether they're worried about the CapEx spending. But honestly, I think it's a good thing. I mean, it's a broadening out of the market. I mean, people are talking about like it's the end of the world and we're, I don't know how far are we from all-time highs right now. Don't know”
2026-02-25 · Forward Guidance · What ETF Flows Are Telling Us About Investor Appetite | James Seyffart · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“As far as the flows you were talking about, I think there's this, so we've seen tons of flows into these other sector names like other than tech, like record level flows. I don't have them in front of me, but these other sectors look pretty damn good if you look at the ETF breakdown. And what I think is happening, I mean, I'm not the first person to say this, but it's a lot of these of money, maybe not necessarily flowing out, but they're not buying big tech bag seven anymore and they're diversifying. So we're seeing it in an international stocks, emerging markets. Obviously, there's a huge theory out there. I know you guys subscribe to that Trump once a week or dollar, which is obviously good for international stock. So it's not just the sector side of things. It's also like international stocks are doing very well too.”
2026-02-25 · Forward Guidance · What ETF Flows Are Telling Us About Investor Appetite | James Seyffart · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Dip is getting bought like crazy in that ETF. Like it's like there's billions flowing in, but the dip is not really being boughts for the most part. We're still seeing net outflows. Obviously, there are days where we see inflows and it's not all like horrible things. But for the most part, I would say the biggest dichotomy I saw on that side was the fact that the software stocks were getting bought.”
2026-02-25 · Forward Guidance · What ETF Flows Are Telling Us About Investor Appetite | James Seyffart · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I mean, real quick on software, I wrote about when it first started, like there's a huge correlation between Bitcoin and the software stocks, which plenty of other people have talked about. But the funny thing is the software stocks like IGV, that ETF, which everyone is talking about, which is like the US software names, that's what people are using to trade around this. One, it's volume and everything is through the absolute roof. The other side of it that I would say is that it's getting bought.”
2026-02-25 · Forward Guidance · What ETF Flows Are Telling Us About Investor Appetite | James Seyffart · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I have plenty of questions too. Yeah, I'm joining you. There you go. Before we hit record, we were talking a little bit about just the recent dispersion in markets and these sector rotations. It's been crazy. Like I personally feels like one of those times where I've been focusing in on sector ETFs the most in a long time because for years it's just been the past have been and to To tech by QQQ and that sort of thing. But we've started to see some pretty significant rotations, whether it's caused by these AI risks into software. We've seen softer ETS just get absolutely smoked. Curious how you're seeing that from the top level of these ETF rotations, because it just seems crazy to me what's going on underneath the surface.”
2026-02-25 · Forward Guidance · What ETF Flows Are Telling Us About Investor Appetite | James Seyffart · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, it can be as much an art as it is a science, I guess, is what I would say. There's probably somebody way smarter that could answer exactly what you're asking. I'm sure there's so much that goes into it.”
2026-02-25 · Forward Guidance · What ETF Flows Are Telling Us About Investor Appetite | James Seyffart · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Has to do with momentum, but it's not hit or miss just because you think it's going to get in, you buy it before the announcement like I'm telling you. There's plenty of names that like it gets announced that's going in and it pops slightly and then like tanks into before it gets added to the index like a week or so later. Many such.”
2026-02-25 · Forward Guidance · What ETF Flows Are Telling Us About Investor Appetite | James Seyffart · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Kind of depends it fully expected that this thing's going to get bought right and what weight is it going to go in a really large name that isn't in there like when Tesla got added like it's going to go in at such a large weight that like you know trillions of assets that track this index are going to have to buy billions of dollars of this one name so there's a lot of front running before it goes in so before it's announced and then there's front running after it's announced because you know vanguard's going to have to buy x amount and everybody else is going to have to buy x amount and there's plenty of stuff like at the actual etfs or funds or index funds i should say that are like trying to you know get ahead of this and not get you know too got by the the pod shops if you will but um it it's kind of hit or miss too like there i look at some of these names and we're writing about them getting in and we think they're going to get in and they get announced and then like they cut they sell off until they get bought into the into the index so like i won't pretend to know exactly why that happens in some names and not in others uh some of it has”
2026-02-25 · Forward Guidance · What ETF Flows Are Telling Us About Investor Appetite | James Seyffart · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Where do those funds, like, how do they generate the alpha around that? Is this something similar to a merger ARP thing where there's a spread that represents the probability of them entering the index? Or how does that actually work?”
2026-02-25 · Forward Guidance · What ETF Flows Are Telling Us About Investor Appetite | James Seyffart · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Is super passive, but like it's literally like a group of people that decide what goes into these things. And like the fun thing I like to point out to people is if you look at the S&P 500, obviously it's 500-ish names. There's like 20 something stocks out there right now that qualify to go in and like well over 100 stocks that like if they were to go in the S&P, they wouldn't qualify for the S&P 500 today, but they're already in there. So there's plenty of names that can get booted, plenty of names that can go in, and obviously there's a lot of crypto names that are going to IPO and have recently IPO'd and stuff like that that we'll be talking about, like trying to figure out whether they're going to get in there.”
2026-02-25 · Forward Guidance · What ETF Flows Are Telling Us About Investor Appetite | James Seyffart · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I did not look into that specifically, but I do write about every quarter. I'm getting ready to write about S&P 500 because they're going through it again. Next week or two, we'll know who the name's going in and going out. But the S&B 500 is interesting because that's where you can get smoked on something like what you were talking about because it's a committee discretion. So if you think a name is going to go in and the index committee decides not to, even if it is like qualifies and everything, it's a really large name, you name it, it might not get in, but like something like Nasdaq is like very rules-based. If you meet the criteria going in. So for example, MicroStrategy technically met the criteria the last two quarters doesn't this coming quarter, but they didn't let it in because they had concerns around like exactly what it was. Is it more like a closed-in fund? They don't tell you why they didn't let it in, but there was other names that were bigger that had been waiting just as long as it met the criteria was a certain size, it was a certain number on the list, and it goes in. So like there's this, there's two dichotomies, right? There's these indexes that are massive that are just like, this is exactly the rules and this is what we're following. And everyone thinks the SB 500.”
2026-02-25 · Forward Guidance · What ETF Flows Are Telling Us About Investor Appetite | James Seyffart · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Actually, I remember back in, I think it was like just after April Liberation Day, but there was like a pod shop that kind of got smoked on the index rebalancing trade. Was that, did you look into that?”
2026-02-25 · Forward Guidance · What ETF Flows Are Telling Us About Investor Appetite | James Seyffart · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Multi trillion dollar market cap. So it's not a big deal, but they're like five plus billion dollars in assets on 2x leveraged stocks. There's cover call versions on them. You have zero DTE options, ETFs on single names. Like there's probably some really wonky stuff. And if you're an actor trader and you can figure out exactly when these things are rebalancing, trust me, there's hedge funds out there that are doing this. I also tend to write about index rebalances like what names are going to go in and get booted out. And I can tell you all the big hedge funds have teams that specialize in doing all this stuff. It's like its own sub industry. Actually,”
2026-02-25 · Forward Guidance · What ETF Flows Are Telling Us About Investor Appetite | James Seyffart · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I mean, I've heard Tyler on your roundups talk about some of the stuff and some of how these ETFs are disturbing the way the derivatives are distributed and priced. I mean, from my point of view, I haven't really dived into or dove into exactly how much of an impact it's having. But I mean, on the large names like the ones that do, they own an index or they own underlying assets and write calls on a whole bunch of stuff, I seriously doubt that's doing too much. When we get to the single name cover call products, it's where things can get wonky, particularly when these things get to billion dollars in assets. It's the problem isn't how big these ETFs get. It's like how big the ETFs get and how big is the underlying market they're investing in. And when the underlying market is a single stock and you're writing options on top of them, and like that's when things can get really wonky.”
2026-02-25 · Forward Guidance · What ETF Flows Are Telling Us About Investor Appetite | James Seyffart · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Jewish are pushing. Do you have you modeled out or looked into any sort of risks associated with it? Like you mentioned a couple times already these covered call ETFs, the ETFs where they're just writing options against their positions. Is there obviously they're covered? So it's not like selling an outright call or anything. But is there, how do you think about any sort of risks that can come there? Because it seems like they're getting pretty popular too”
2026-02-25 · Forward Guidance · What ETF Flows Are Telling Us About Investor Appetite | James Seyffart · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Tail wagging the dog type issues, whether it's because of derivatives or the leverage products, you name it, it happens. It kind of is what it is. And it's like one of those things where, like, I don't know, should we stop these things from launching? Because obviously people like them and they want them. And like, yeah, it's this. There are a lot of filings for like Forex versions of like sector ETFs and they keep issuers keep filing them. That's another thing I'm launching. They filed for Forex Bitcoin and Ethereum too. The SEC has stopped these every time they've been filed, but there's like five or six issuers that keep filing these things. And we don't know what's going on. We think like, A, they're just hoping this slips through or they think we don't know if they're probing some sort of like defense at the SEC or some rules around what would allow them to launch, but I don't think they should launch. Like if we get stuff worth forex Bitcoin, like it's just going to be all over the news that like this ETF liquidator because Bitcoin went down 25% or you name it, any stock. It's just going to be bad for the ETFs and could be bad for the underlying asset. But, you know, if you want to use margin in your account, I guess you can get pretty hefty margin exposure too.”
2026-02-25 · Forward Guidance · What ETF Flows Are Telling Us About Investor Appetite | James Seyffart · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, yeah. Like that was the tail whacking the dog, and that, like, people like to act like that happens with ETFs all the time. And like, it does happen. It happens with extreme menias, but it's like such a small portion of what these things do. But that said, it definitely was happening with silver from what I saw. I would not be surprised. I mentioned the issuers are launching 2x single stock ETFs on like smaller and smaller names, right? So there's like quantum stocks now that have 2x stocks on them that like if these two x stocks, 2x ETFs had launched, I don't know, eight months ago when Quantum went down 40%, like they'd be liquidated. These funds would not exist anymore. So we're going to see another prediction we have this year is we're going to see some of these 2x stocks liquidate, whether it's because a name goes up 50% in like a 24 hour period or down because there's usually a 2x long and a 2x short version. So we're going to see these things liquidate and they are almost certainly going to be instances of exactly what you're talking about where you have”
2026-02-25 · Forward Guidance · What ETF Flows Are Telling Us About Investor Appetite | James Seyffart · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So, I haven't, but I've seen other people talking about it. And this happens when mania's happen. Like happened with silver and precious metals. Like this tends to happen. And the biggest example is the volatility VIX blow up in February of, man, I don't even know, 2018, I want to say.”
2026-02-25 · Forward Guidance · What ETF Flows Are Telling Us About Investor Appetite | James Seyffart · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I think what's been especially crazy too is the trend of these levered ETFs. It just seems like people are just going crazy for them these days. And it's like I've started to notice their impact on, you know, when they rebalance in the afternoon, it seems like they've been having a pretty substantial impact on the actual spot price or whatever. Like during a couple months ago, we saw, you know, the big surge in silver and the rebalancing of like the silver levered ETF was like a very fundamental driver of the intraday price action. Have you been looking into that at all?”
2026-02-25 · Forward Guidance · What ETF Flows Are Telling Us About Investor Appetite | James Seyffart · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“But yeah, that would be the flip side of what you said. But for sure, like if we look at what I'm looking at, like I mentioned those 2x single stock ETS, anything within AI name is like flying tons of money being pushed around in there, tons of volume. That is where all the interest is for certain. It's not even, but the interesting thing there is you and everyone know is like the biggest names that are going to be the most pure play. You can't really get exposure to them, whether it's, you know, SpaceX now or Anthropic Open AI. I mean, yesterday we're seeing issuers, you were talking about spaghetti throwing spaghetti at the wall. I mean, I'm seeing issuers filing for single stock ETFs that on stocks that haven't even IPOed yet. Yesterday we had a filing for covered call exposure to SpaceX, one for OpenAI and one for Anthropic. Like neither of them have IPO'd yet. I mean, granted, they're likely to IPO this year, but I mean, issuers are so far ahead of the game and looking at what you're saying, like AI is what people want. And they're like, we need to file.”
2026-02-25 · Forward Guidance · What ETF Flows Are Telling Us About Investor Appetite | James Seyffart · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“trying to figure it out. But I will say the ETS for the most part, like I said, granted, they've seen 9 billion in outflows, but they had a peak of like 170 billion in assets. Right now, they're around 100 billion. So like granted, 9 billion outflows a lot, but in the grand scheme of things, it's not a lot. And for the most part, people are acquiring Ethereum ETS, Bitcoin, ETS, Solana, ETS, XRP, ETS. From our point of view, they know these things, or what we would call the hot sauce bucket. So they're buying it. And these are like more long-term allocations. Obviously, there's plenty of people trading. There are leveraged ETS on these things that see tons of trading. But I think most people coming in kind of know if they're buying this asset. It's like every four years it goes to 70% drawdown. And I think that's why, like I said at the beginning, like if you told me they would only see this much outflow, I said that's pretty damn good. Like compared to the rest of the crypto markets, these ETFs are holding up exceptionally well. Now, the trend doesn't look good right now because there's still like trickle outflows every single day that we look for the most part.”
2026-02-25 · Forward Guidance · What ETF Flows Are Telling Us About Investor Appetite | James Seyffart · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Not really. So I will say for the most part, so one, I do see that the speculation, I mean, there's no argument. I think you're 100% correct. Like you don't even have to look at what's happening with prices. You can just look at what the media is talking about and what's being spoken about on social media platforms and what have you. Like what you're saying is... Fact, not even”
2026-02-25 · Forward Guidance · What ETF Flows Are Telling Us About Investor Appetite | James Seyffart · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Well, we don't know what's going to happen for another month, so we'll get data from 331 a month and a half after that, and we'll know then. But right now I'm suspecting based on what we've seen with price and outflows that we're going to see numbers drop again. So, yeah, the new holders, I would say this is something that's been all over social media, Coindesk reported on it today. Laura Limited is like a Hong Kong entity that is bought basically 437 million dollars worth of iBit. So there was a lot of conspiracies that I never really believe in that, but that's apparently it's just one person who's. Believes in it. So, yeah, I can rattle off a bunch of the top names if you want, but it's just kind of a who's who of like Wall Street, essentially.”
2026-02-25 · Forward Guidance · What ETF Flows Are Telling Us About Investor Appetite | James Seyffart · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, yeah, yeah, exactly. So you see a lot of people on social media talk about this stuff like, oh my God, look who bought this. And it's like, yeah, this is the long side of the trade. We don't know. They could be net short even still if they're holding a couple hundred million So, yeah, I would say that the biggest things that jumped out at me were it was net selling from 13F providers and it was led by hedge funds and ETFs and brokerages actually were the biggest net sellers and that's not even including the huge drop-off we saw in January into Feb so I'm going to guess that these numbers are going to”
2026-02-25 · Forward Guidance · What ETF Flows Are Telling Us About Investor Appetite | James Seyffart · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So, like, we see who owns a whole bunch of these ETFs, but we don't know what the other side of the trade looks like. So Jane Street, I'm pretty sure they're just not long a few billion dollars worth of Bitcoin. They are polynomial.”
2026-02-25 · Forward Guidance · What ETF Flows Are Telling Us About Investor Appetite | James Seyffart · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, so for the first time, so this is data, it just came, it just got finalized this like within the last week of our recording here. Investment advisors actually sold. So in aggregate, they sold almost 22,000 Bitcoin in the fourth quarter, which again, I was talking about like the basis trade potentially collapsing a little bit and we're seeing outflows. I don't know. That also contributed to hedge funds being huge sellers. So they're the biggest one and two holders on the 13F report. As of 3Q, we knew about 26, 27% of the holders were filers with the 13F. That number is now dropped as of the end of 2025 to 24%. So like we've seen these institutions actually drop their allocations. That's not saying everyone did. There's plenty of institutions that were first-time buyers. There's plenty of institutions that added to their allocation. A lot of the biggest holders are like people involved in market making and probably derivatives. So they're using these when you have a 13F, like the only thing you can see is the long side of the trade.”
2026-02-25 · Forward Guidance · What ETF Flows Are Telling Us About Investor Appetite | James Seyffart · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, fair enough. So it's 13 F season right now. And we're getting all those updates. I know you've been writing a bit about changes in ownership of these crypto ETFs, and we've seen those outflows, as you mentioned. So walk us through, yeah, like who's been selling, who are the top holders, where have you been seeing the changes? What's going on underneath the surface?”
2026-02-25 · Forward Guidance · What ETF Flows Are Telling Us About Investor Appetite | James Seyffart · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“My colleagues in Bloomberg Intelligence Down DC are very optimistic. They have been. They never went below 60% odds. So that should help some of this stuff. But there's still a lot of questions out here on the regulatory regulation side that need to be sorted.”
2026-02-25 · Forward Guidance · What ETF Flows Are Telling Us About Investor Appetite | James Seyffart · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Pie in the sky type stuff from my point of view. So, I mean, there are benefits, right, of doing these things and tokenizing them and getting everything on one ledger theoretically. But again, I just keep going back to like, one, there's so many regulations that we have to fight through. Like there are reasons why certain ETFs like can't be traded outside the US or certain people can't hold them. Like there are regulations preventing those types of things. And those all need to be sorted out too, which again, like ultimately it will be sorted. And right now the administration at the CFTC and SEC is optimistic and bullish on like allowing these things to thrive. But we only have, you know, three more years of them. Not even. We'll see what happens after that. And we don't even have clarity right now in Congress, which are”
2026-02-25 · Forward Guidance · What ETF Flows Are Telling Us About Investor Appetite | James Seyffart · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“In the developed world, it's pretty easy to get access. Like every issuer, like BlackRock is huge in Europe, BlackRock is huge in Australia, Japan has plenty of ETF issues or China. If you want exposure for the most part, you can get it. There are caps and issues where they won't allow, like in China specifically, like there's things where those ETS will trade a massive premiums because people want so much access to, you know, I don't know, the Mag7 and like the Chinese regulators don't allow you to like create more shares and get additional access. So they traded a premium because people just want exposure to it. But for the most part, like in the developed world, if you want to get exposure to large cap tech in the US, like you can do it pretty easily. So that said, obviously in developing worlds, there's a whole different, like getting even getting a bank account in some countries is pretty hard. And I guess like theoretically, if you get everyone on chain, they can get exposure this way. But honestly, like, I don't think that's really.”
2026-02-25 · Forward Guidance · What ETF Flows Are Telling Us About Investor Appetite | James Seyffart · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So, yeah, there's a whole bunch, but it's going to be a long time. Like even right now, it's such a small portion of the market. ATFs came out in 1993. In the mid-2000s, people were saying these are the future. ETFs are still smaller than mutual funds right now, right? So they're not going to pass it for a long time. So even if we do get to a point where tokenization really starts to take over, it might be a much slower role than people are thinking.”
2026-02-25 · Forward Guidance · What ETF Flows Are Telling Us About Investor Appetite | James Seyffart · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT