YouSaid · the spoken record

Jamie Catherwood

lines on the record: 67
first: 2023-02-03
most recent: 2023-02-03
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

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“Yeah. So there's no kind of shortage there. I would say that the 1800s, so essentially the point of my piece was that today we're seeing everything in crypto kind of play out at a much faster speed simply because of the technology available today, but also we're witnessing more of it in real time just because of like social media and news and the internet obviously compared to the 1800s. And so everything's just kind of happening faster. But in the 1800s, I mean, there was everything that's going on in crypto today was happening in the 1800s in the stock market and even early 1900s. It wasn't really until 1929 crash, as we'll get on to that substantial regulation came in to place, I think it was not until 1909 that like any type of ruling around insider trading.”
2023-02-03 · We Study Billionaires · TIP520: Investing Through Post-bubble Markets w/ Jamie Catherwood · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And the Italian, sorry to any Italian listeners, brace yourself. The Italian phrase at that time was bancapta. That meant That's where we get the term bank drop from because it goes back to broken benches when a banker went insolvent. They smashed his bench. And so broken bench equals bankruptcy.”
2023-02-03 · We Study Billionaires · TIP520: Investing Through Post-bubble Markets w/ Jamie Catherwood · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Essentially back in the 14th century in Italy, their bankers at that time were conducting their business and transactions off of a bench. A bench is what they called it, but it really looked kind of more like a big table. But for all intents and purposes, it was this bench that they would sit on, they have the table, and that's where they would basically sit in squares in Italy. So, you know, you can picture somewhere like Venice and all these Venetian bankers sitting out in the courtyard and they're doing their banking from this table. If a banker went insolvent, though, and they could not continue lending out money or meeting their payments, then to signal and kind of shame that banker publicly and to let people know that he was insolvent and had gone bust, the kind of authorities or other bankers would break that person's bench in half as just kind of public signal, like this guy literally blew up, he broke his bench in half. He's insolvent.”
2023-02-03 · We Study Billionaires · TIP520: Investing Through Post-bubble Markets w/ Jamie Catherwood · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Exactly. But he's a great example of that kind of unraveling with the 2008 crisis is when his kind of pyramid scheme got highlighted. Enron after the dot-com bubble burst is another example. There's no shortage throughout all of history. Basically every big kind of speculative bubble, once you see that unravel, you tend to see a lot of these sketchy, unquestionable actors and businesses get outed.”
2023-02-03 · We Study Billionaires · TIP520: Investing Through Post-bubble Markets w/ Jamie Catherwood · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, it's like we just describe. It's funny when we have no idea of the context, but we know the outcome so we ascribe like a narrative to it without actually knowing if it's even remotely true. Oh, he's just a genius investor that avoided the crash. Not he actually lost everything and had a friend give him a loan.”
2023-02-03 · We Study Billionaires · TIP520: Investing Through Post-bubble Markets w/ Jamie Catherwood · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“In a bull market, what matters a little less. But when your company is losing money and the stock price is going down, then you have to make kind of tougher decisions. And so just generally, I'd say whether it's fraud or just kind of questionable business models, I think those all get found out in the bear market.”
2023-02-03 · We Study Billionaires · TIP520: Investing Through Post-bubble Markets w/ Jamie Catherwood · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And you need to have answers. And so I think today we've definitely seen, even if not as much in equity markets, certainly in some other asset classes that might be more digital. You've seen some unraveling of many of the players and large exchanges in some cases. And so we'll continue to see, I mean, we saw in equity markets not with necessarily frauds, but just the wave of downsizing and layoffs and specifically the tech sector in a lot of these kind of VC funded startups either slashing their valuations or slashing their headcount once the bear market started because a lot of even in the private sector the comparisons to publicly traded tech companies moved to private markets in a negative direction and so i think some of that stuff in hindsight you could have seen coming like how many employees do some of these companies really need and how many benefits do they need to offer”
2023-02-03 · We Study Billionaires · TIP520: Investing Through Post-bubble Markets w/ Jamie Catherwood · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Your asset values are dropping, then that tends to be throughout history where frauds and not even full-blown frauds, but just kind of bad business models and bad businesses in general that might have been able to kind of skate by on hype and momentum in a bull market, you see a lot of those companies get unraveled and called out in the bear market because they're just not able to kind of smooth over the cracks with stories and narratives anymore and, you know, precarious financing, the market definitely prefers facts and statistics over exciting stories when people are losing money. I think not to just keep quoting him, but Chainus has said that a stock price is the best prosecutor and defense that you can have because when stock price is good, you're kind of untouchable and when it's bad, people have questions.”
2023-02-03 · We Study Billionaires · TIP520: Investing Through Post-bubble Markets w/ Jamie Catherwood · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, I think you see a couple different things, which I know, again, we'll come back to with the whole FTX kind of unraveling. But what you tend to see in general is a lag between, as my friend Jim Chanos likes to say in his class that he teaches on the history of fraud, that the fraud cycle lags the market cycle. And so what that means is that when there's a bull market and people are more willing to kind of suspend their sense of disbelief and they're a little more willing to kind of not even willing, but they just inadvertently kind of subconsciously do less due diligence because when things are going up, you just feel less of a need to kind of find reasons to find a negative problem with an investment as long as it's making money. There's little reason to question it. And then conversely, when everybody starts losing money in the downturn and financing dries up, but also”
2023-02-03 · We Study Billionaires · TIP520: Investing Through Post-bubble Markets w/ Jamie Catherwood · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“From a factor standpoint, momentum was the best performing factor across all inflation regimes. And the size factor was the worst. And then for sectors, energy was the best sector across all eight inflation regimes and consumer durables. And so like consumer staples was the worst performing kind of by some margin. And so it's a really interesting paper and it was interesting to see momentum in their research was the highest performer.”
2023-02-03 · We Study Billionaires · TIP520: Investing Through Post-bubble Markets w/ Jamie Catherwood · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, so factors in general tend to hold up very well during inflationary regimes. In addition to this paper by Aaron, which goes through and shows kind of the returns across different factors in different inflation regimes since 1926, there is a great paper by JP Morgan aptly titled The Best Strategies for Inflationary Times, pretty to the point. And in that paper, which I think came like two years ago at this point, they argue for factors that they looked at essentially eight high inflation regimes starting with, I think, coming out of World War II. And then there's been like eight kind of main inflation regimes since then. And so they look at how different assets and kind of investing styles or sectors performed in each of those regimes and then also on average. And so they found that across those eight regimes that”
2023-02-03 · We Study Billionaires · TIP520: Investing Through Post-bubble Markets w/ Jamie Catherwood · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Regulated asset class. In that case, equities, because it was before the 29 crash and a lot of the kind of regulation that came in after that. And today we have crypto. So we'll come back to that, but it'll be interesting to see how that kind of narrative also with each other between 100 years ago into today.”
2023-02-03 · We Study Billionaires · TIP520: Investing Through Post-bubble Markets w/ Jamie Catherwood · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Kind of like to skip over that part when they talk about the Marine 20s of you know, it came out of the pandemic and then we had a recession and then we had the Roaring 20s. And so today obviously the parallels are pretty obvious. We had a pandemic. We had the George Floyd summer and then we had the recession. And now the question is kind of are we going to keep following roughly in line with the 20s and that we would be experiencing or on the precipice of experiencing a true like roaring 20s? Or is it going to be something different where the economy takes longer to kind of rebuild and truly get back to the pre-COVID levels? And so time will tell, but I think in terms of similarities, there are a few periods that have so much in common. And so we'll see. I know we're going to talk about that later, but it'll also be interesting to see like the 20s, obviously a great deal of speculation in a largely un”
2023-02-03 · We Study Billionaires · TIP520: Investing Through Post-bubble Markets w/ Jamie Catherwood · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“In 100 years ago, you had a pandemic with the Spanish flu. After that, you had a wave of summer protests around race called the Red Summer of 1919, which was kind of similar to the George Floyd Black Lives Matter summer of protests and kind of demonstrations. And then you had a reopening where things were really kind of speculative and surging to kind of make up for the pent-up demand that had existed while we're all locked down, which also occurred coming out of World War I and Spanish fully 100 years ago, but then in 1920, 1921, you had a really sharp and severe recession, which was very short. But again, it was a problem of in that case rampant inflation very quickly turning to rampant deflation. It was an interesting period. But then after that is when you got the roaring 20s, but people”
2023-02-03 · We Study Billionaires · TIP520: Investing Through Post-bubble Markets w/ Jamie Catherwood · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Late 19 teens and 20s with today because while we obviously at least knock on wood didn't have a world war today, it looked like that also might be following path when the Russia-Ukraine stuff started, but thankfully so far that's been avoided”
2023-02-03 · We Study Billionaires · TIP520: Investing Through Post-bubble Markets w/ Jamie Catherwood · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“1870s were talking, but in all seriousness, if you do want to read about that, my colleague at O'Shaughnessy Asset Management, Aaron Stanhope, a member of our research team and client portfolio manager, he wrote a great paper called The Great Inflation. So if you go to our website osamosam.com, you can find that. And he kind of walks through the similarities and more importantly, the key differences between the 70s and today and why this is not like a 1970s great inflation, but to actually answer your question, I would say that the period I'm finding most interesting in terms of a parallel to today would be the 20s, which I'm sure most people know by now, but I found really interesting since honestly COVID started the similarities in progression and timeline between the kind of early 19 or”
2023-02-03 · We Study Billionaires · TIP520: Investing Through Post-bubble Markets w/ Jamie Catherwood · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, so anyone that's familiar with my work will know that I like to look at things before the 1970s. I figured the 1970s weren't all the time.”
2023-02-03 · We Study Billionaires · TIP520: Investing Through Post-bubble Markets w/ Jamie Catherwood · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT