YouSaid · the spoken record

Jan Szilagyi

lines on the record: 54
first: 2026-04-15
most recent: 2026-04-15
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

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“In just initially, if they just visit us at reflexivity.com, they'll kind of get an idea of what this looks like, but we invite everybody who is interested in trying it to just contact us and basically. We're always happy to show it off, get feedback, and so on. I mean, it's a product that is continuing to evolve. And so the more eyes we have on it, the better we can make it. And hopefully eventually we'll have everybody using it.”
2026-04-15 · Forward Guidance · How the World’s Biggest Macro Hedge Funds Are Using AI | Jan Szilagyi · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Also, additional chip production and so on. I mean, there is going to be a huge amount of resources that are going to be required for this boom to basically be sustained. And the interesting question for me also is, are those who are investing in this boom are going to also be the ones that ultimately reap the benefits? Because if you remember the companies were laying all that cable, then ultimately a lot of them went bankrupt, like WorldCom. It's not. Could be the end up with all this infrastructure, but somebody else is going to buy it for a lot less. Because the original companies couldn't sustain it.”
2026-04-15 · Forward Guidance · How the World’s Biggest Macro Hedge Funds Are Using AI | Jan Szilagyi · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yes, I absolutely agree. I do, and this is why I was mentioning before that beyond just maybe more. Philosophic aspects of what does the zoo productivity in the economy you are seeing, as you mentioned, already huge spent in actual construction and actual consumption. Materials that it puts a price on, it's on. Now how that balances versus the inflation that you see and the Fed targets, which is much more skewed towards like services and so on, right? A lot of times we actually even purposely exclude commodity inflation because it's seen as so volatile. So I'm not sure that that necessarily is by itself going to drive policy. It is going to make it a little bit difficult to always discern what the underlying dynamics are versus what is short-term volatility, but there is no doubt that between this and”
2026-04-15 · Forward Guidance · How the World’s Biggest Macro Hedge Funds Are Using AI | Jan Szilagyi · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“The other one I think a lot about is comparing it to the internet boom. Obviously, you know, we do need to put a bunch of cable across the oceans to get the internet going. And there was some infrastructure buildout related to that. But I think it's still quite small compared to what we're seeing with the data center buildout and just compute, sheer compute that's needed these days. It feels to me like we've been seeing over the last couple months is that a lot of the really compelling use cases are continuing to be constrained by just the amount of compute that we have available. And to build out that compute, you need real assets. You need these commodities. You need like, you know, just one example is for all the semis that need to be built out. You need helium. And helium is being constrained by what's going on with Iran and that sort of thing. So yes, in one respect, it feels like this big productivity enhancer that could lead to this big boom. But on the other side, it's like, look, a lot of this is anchored to these real commodities in the real world.”
2026-04-15 · Forward Guidance · How the World’s Biggest Macro Hedge Funds Are Using AI | Jan Szilagyi · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“What complicates the picture is that when you have a geopolitical conflict and then you have inflation rising in part because of oil prices and so on, expectations do respond to this. And ultimately what makes inflation either entrenched or not entrenched is what people are expected to be and whether or not that price that they're seeing in the pump then gets translated into what you're paying for coffee or you're paying for other things and so on. But from a pure macroeconomic point of view, Whilst you will get this volatility and uncertainty as to where inflation is headed in the short term, I do think that on a five-year horizon, a lot of these technologies will absolutely prove very disinflationary.”
2026-04-15 · Forward Guidance · How the World’s Biggest Macro Hedge Funds Are Using AI | Jan Szilagyi · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I think actually this was what When people think back on the Alan Greenspan era and the internet boom, I think that was a lot of his rhetoric back then too was effectively saying, oh, look, actually this. Technology or internet as a whole is actually an incredible productivity enhancer. And so he was reluctant to tighten rates because he felt like even with very high levels of economic growth, he thought inflation. And he ultimately for a long time turned out to be correct. If you compare that time and today, I do think just from a productivity point of view, it's undeniable that there are some huge productivity dividends that I think are already here and more coming down the line. From a Fed's perspective,”
2026-04-15 · Forward Guidance · How the World’s Biggest Macro Hedge Funds Are Using AI | Jan Szilagyi · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Capable with this technology of picking up another profession or another service that previously you would never be able to do because you'd go to like a year long training course and you know who knows where you then get the job and so on so How it's going to shake out quantitatively, I think it's hard to say, but no question that it is going to have pretty big repercussions on probably whole cohorts of workers. Hopefully, we can. Hopefully, we can get at least some portion of them to be able to do because of this technology something else that previously they would not have been able to do.”
2026-04-15 · Forward Guidance · How the World’s Biggest Macro Hedge Funds Are Using AI | Jan Szilagyi · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I think on a much larger scale, I do think something like that is going to happen here, right? The hope, I think, is that this technology happens to also be the kind that hopefully can help you become better at something else. What's sort of remarkable in how it's able to pull together the data is that you have these conversations with people who all of a sudden have become unbelievably excited amateur plumbers and machine washer fixers and so on. They're like, oh, well, I just asked Claude. In 10 minutes I was able to fix what previously would have been a house call and so on. So it does have some redeeming qualities that I think mean that maybe if somebody who used to, I don't know, answer to customer letters at a particular space. And that's now obviously a job that is no longer needed, we'll be able to do something else with the help of this because they'll just be”
2026-04-15 · Forward Guidance · How the World’s Biggest Macro Hedge Funds Are Using AI | Jan Szilagyi · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“While it might have made the country better off and a lot of people much wealthier, it absolutely made some other people a lot worse off and there were industries that were obliterated and never came back.”
2026-04-15 · Forward Guidance · How the World’s Biggest Macro Hedge Funds Are Using AI | Jan Szilagyi · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Although I don't think we necessarily have something that is exactly comparable to what is currently happening, right, to kind of go back by analogy, people try to compare it to what was happening with the internet and so on. Like obviously this seems like it's very important in terms of milestones for humanity where we are and where we're going and so on. For the labor market specifically to me, it almost seems like we are now trading with some extremely technologically capable nation that is just able to do like we've just outsourced more and more to it, right? And the price seems to be, it's not zero because these things actually cost quite a lot of money and you can see you're asking before about the impact on the economy. The amount of spent on data centers and otherwise is real. Like that is going into the economy. It's absolutely creating and boosting growth. But at the same time, just like when happened with trade.”
2026-04-15 · Forward Guidance · How the World’s Biggest Macro Hedge Funds Are Using AI | Jan Szilagyi · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And I mean, I think that ultimately it's probably easier to get that feedback from a machine than it would have been otherwise. First of all, because nobody might spend Right. But I do think Adjusting for some of these behavioral biases, and we know that there are tons of them. It's not this is there's well documented literature about all of the things that make people sometimes less than perfect investors. With this kind of help, I think you probably also get closer to what I think ultimately you would imagine an AI trader would do because they wouldn't have necessarily these emotional biases. Or maybe they would, who knows? I mean, Claude does seem to want to please you in its answer. So maybe it's some of the biases that we'll discover will reflect our own.”
2026-04-15 · Forward Guidance · How the World’s Biggest Macro Hedge Funds Are Using AI | Jan Szilagyi · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I was laughing there because that's just like entirely my experience where sometimes I look at my big thematic ideas. I'm like, oh, it's kind of good on that. And then I look at my actual execution of the trade and it's just, it's a lot sloppier than it looks on the surface. And I took all my trade logs and I put it in AI and I was like, hey, tell me some interesting insights or like, you know, correlations or what have you. And it was just like, it kind of roasted me in some ways. It was like, stop stop trading that one asset class. Like you suck at it, basically.”
2026-04-15 · Forward Guidance · How the World’s Biggest Macro Hedge Funds Are Using AI | Jan Szilagyi · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“The area where I think it's going to be interesting to see some of these agents also is we spent a lot of time analyzing market data, but I think actually it's going to be also interesting to analyze your own trading behavior, right? Like I think what would be interesting to kind of find out is, sure, your ideas are great, but you're just terrible at execution. Like you're always way too early or like you're really good at buying, but you're terrible at selling and so on. Like it would be interesting to actually have, you know, we were talking about whoop before, right? But like, for example, let's say that you had something similar that would just be in real time basically monitoring your own activity and kind of highlight, look, just stop doing trades on a Friday. Like it's just not working. Like every time when you do this, it turns out that you end up selling at a loss.”
2026-04-15 · Forward Guidance · How the World’s Biggest Macro Hedge Funds Are Using AI | Jan Szilagyi · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I mean, I'm very bullish on that. I think that Absolutely, there are a lot of processes that exist in investing where you could do far better. Execution is to an extent maybe a natural one because even up to this point people would sometimes have either like algorithms execute. Like we have the infrastructure already in place to kind of make that relatively reliable. And so I do see that having a very, very bright future.”
2026-04-15 · Forward Guidance · How the World’s Biggest Macro Hedge Funds Are Using AI | Jan Szilagyi · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“With again that wealth of data, also different prices at different ports for the same good and so on. I mean, it feels like an area that could definitely benefit from kind of shining a floodlight on the huge amount of information that exists.”
2026-04-15 · Forward Guidance · How the World’s Biggest Macro Hedge Funds Are Using AI | Jan Szilagyi · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“You know, actually, so equities does make sense also, partly because we have a lot of data available. So I think it's a very fertile ground for this technology. Another area that I actually think is very promising is commodity trading because there's an incredible amount of very micro information. It's not always available in easy to access data sources. And so people who do it well often actually themselves struggle keeping some of these models up to date and so on. If you were to apply some of these frameworks on that wealth of data and going literally from processing individual warehouse invoices so that you knew what the cost of carry was for, I mean, down to basically the square foot of that warehouse, compare that to the price in real time of what it would mean to ship it from Amsterdam to New York and so on. There would be a lot of interesting patterns that I think you could uncover.”
2026-04-15 · Forward Guidance · How the World’s Biggest Macro Hedge Funds Are Using AI | Jan Szilagyi · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Not yet clear on how these paths are going to then work out where eventually you just have a single trader doing it doing everything for all of us.”
2026-04-15 · Forward Guidance · How the World’s Biggest Macro Hedge Funds Are Using AI | Jan Szilagyi · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And so I think that it's a challenge even for an AI system to create internally rules that it could apply over and over again. Because one of the things that makes this exciting, and you highlighted this, was, well, how do you trade in global macro when you only have like two other cases? You can expand it a little bit, but there is going to be even from an AI perspective some margin of error that in some trades and in some areas of investing remain very, very large. And yes, maybe you'll be faster at arriving a decision and that definitely helps, but it doesn't mean that you'll necessarily be right more often on that specific decision. Think it's an extremely exciting technology. I think it's absolutely going to make Investing a lot more fun and also really rewarding because you'll be able to explore such a large part of the market.”
2026-04-15 · Forward Guidance · How the World’s Biggest Macro Hedge Funds Are Using AI | Jan Szilagyi · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I mean, look, to be clear, I think that's a very possible path. I am just thinking that at the moment. Finance ultimately does seem like these relationships are Not only are there many of them, they're very complicated and they don't stay constant over time.”
2026-04-15 · Forward Guidance · How the World’s Biggest Macro Hedge Funds Are Using AI | Jan Szilagyi · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Okay, so it sounds like it still needs to be utilized by somebody who's going to actually put ideas together. It's not so much like, you know, in one alternative unit verse or at one point we get to this say, you know, just the average person is like, okay, hey chat, GPT, hey, Claude, you know, make me a portfolio that outperforms the S&P 500 on a five-year basis with a high sharp, make no mistakes, and then off to the races. And everybody's saying that at the same time. And then Alpha just gets compressed, and then something that everybody's just long beta. Like, you don't think really that world is, at least on the horizon for the next five years or so.”
2026-04-15 · Forward Guidance · How the World’s Biggest Macro Hedge Funds Are Using AI | Jan Szilagyi · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Wasn't suddenly that well, because everybody has a Bloomberg terminal and it really feels like now most people do, that opportunities just disappeared because everybody had access to better information. If we get to a complete melding of intelligence, then I suppose that's possible. But I think that is... Predicting what that world looks like feels very, very different, right? Because then Some sense also like what are we actually trading? Like, if we're all basically wanting to buy the same thing, who's selling and vice versa”
2026-04-15 · Forward Guidance · How the World’s Biggest Macro Hedge Funds Are Using AI | Jan Szilagyi · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“It kind of widens the scope of trade ideas that will be out there floated and potentially put on and so on. Now, as the technology gets better and it becomes more assistive, in other words, it will assess what you're saying, be like, look, Jan, I understand that, you know, you think that these are the obvious trades, but actually you're wrong. And here's what I think you should be thinking about instead. Do you get a little bit of that convergence? Yes, but even then not everybody has the same risk appetite. investment horizon. You will still find that there will be a lot of variety in terms of how people express trades and so on. A very imperfect analogy is probably when people switch from looking at price quotations on fax machines to then having access to like a Bloomberg terminal.”
2026-04-15 · Forward Guidance · How the World’s Biggest Macro Hedge Funds Are Using AI | Jan Szilagyi · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Your training framework sucks. I think you should really just here's what I think you should be doing instead. Like we might get to that point, but I think that is closer to really an autonomous AI trader as opposed to where we currently are. I think that's an exciting moment where I actually think there might be initially partly because some people are using the technology and others aren't going to create more disparity in the market rather than less. Like you will be able to have somebody who doesn't come from and you are asking about staying before, right? Like this is going to empower people who in principle have Very little quantitative trading, but are able to ask good intuitive questions about markets and then still test them against the data.”
2026-04-15 · Forward Guidance · How the World’s Biggest Macro Hedge Funds Are Using AI | Jan Szilagyi · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“It's a very interesting question, and I will give you an answer only about the shorter term of it because I think that anything beyond five years, I think we'd just become impossible to make any predictions anybody want to even listen to. I think currently... What I see from the technology that we have built, it's definitely an enabler. And what I mean by this is that it effectively allows you to test a variety of different questions very efficiently, which ultimately means that the questions become even more valuable. If I'm asking very bad questions that lead to very little, it's unlikely that the system will suddenly be like, hey, you know what”
2026-04-15 · Forward Guidance · How the World’s Biggest Macro Hedge Funds Are Using AI | Jan Szilagyi · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“But we try as hard as we can to make sure that you never have to even get to that step because the idea is that we have connected and integrated all of these data sources already. They tend to be only the... Most premium content that investors are already familiar with, right? Like you're using data from IBIS and DataStream and so on. So it's not sources that they wouldn't be familiar with. It's just that we're able to mine them to the extent that previously wasn't possible.”
2026-04-15 · Forward Guidance · How the World’s Biggest Macro Hedge Funds Are Using AI | Jan Szilagyi · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“It doesn't have access to the data, it'll just return an error. It doesn't then make up an answer. It will actually select, hey, I wasn't able to get the data, so I cannot conduct your analysis. You still run into the problem, obviously, of incorrect data. That could happen, but we tried to also address that by always making it very transparent and completely auditable. You can see every step of the analysis and where each of the data series came from. so that if suddenly you're like, wait a second, the P series that you're showing me here seems like it's coming from a source that I'd never heard of and that might be totally wrong. At least it alerts you to it and you can check it.”
2026-04-15 · Forward Guidance · How the World’s Biggest Macro Hedge Funds Are Using AI | Jan Szilagyi · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, no, it's a great question, and it's one that obviously we think about a lot. And there are several ways in which we more or less are able to avoid them entirely. One is that every answer that you get from reflexivity is ultimately code first output. Meaning when you ask a question, the role of the reasoning layer is to understand what is it that you want, then dip into that interpretive infrastructure that I mentioned, the layer in between, the knowledge graph and so on, procure the data, and then run any sort of analysis directly on that raw data.”
2026-04-15 · Forward Guidance · How the World’s Biggest Macro Hedge Funds Are Using AI | Jan Szilagyi · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“In all of that time, it effectively gave you probably two, three days of analysis, but more importantly, access to the data Be very hard unless you knew how to map it and so on for you to get just through cloth. And I think this is where for some of the more specialized use cases, it becomes really important that you have reliable data and that reflexivity is able to find it where Claude might come back and just give you a kind of a qualitative description of what it thinks could happen based on a lot of the summaries that obviously exist in terms of coke production and the sugar market and so on.”
2026-04-15 · Forward Guidance · How the World’s Biggest Macro Hedge Funds Are Using AI | Jan Szilagyi · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“We're not going to spend two days putting together supply and demand balance in the sugar market. That's not our specialty, but it would be interesting to see if this has any trading repercussions that we should be aware of. In about eight minutes, the system basically pulled together data on sugar harvest across Hawaii, Florida, Texas, Louisiana, the four main sugar producing states in the US. It pulled in financial statements from SP Global and was able to identify a couple of companies that were going to be hurt by that switch. Similarly, it then identified Brazil as being the best Way to fill that gap because it was close and had quite a lot of sugar that it was able to supply and so on. And then again, identified a couple of companies that export sugar from Brazil that appeared undervalued.”
2026-04-15 · Forward Guidance · How the World’s Biggest Macro Hedge Funds Are Using AI | Jan Szilagyi · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yes, however, it's important to note that where you're going to start to really see a big difference between a system like Reflexivity and Claude is when you start tapping into the kind of the longer tail of the data. I'll give an example. We had a... We had this, we were doing this demo, and this was right around the time when basically President Trump suggested that Coca-Cola should replace fructose with real sugar. And obviously they started considering it. But as we were doing this demo, the client said, well, this would be a good way for me to see.”
2026-04-15 · Forward Guidance · How the World’s Biggest Macro Hedge Funds Are Using AI | Jan Szilagyi · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Some kind of a mapping to reduce the dimensionality of the problem. Like finance has obviously the issue that like almost everything seems related. I mean, that's what makes it exciting. The ripple effects are everywhere. But how do you distinguish between a big one and a small one without calculating every single sensitivity? That's where that mapping is extremely helpful to effectively create some sense of hierarchy.”
2026-04-15 · Forward Guidance · How the World’s Biggest Macro Hedge Funds Are Using AI | Jan Szilagyi · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And the reason it's able to do this is the knowledge graph effectively gives it some direction of how to process any market event, any news headline, and then think about the ripple effects by just tracing out the edges of the graph. The best comparison I'll give you of this is if you consider how Google ended up dominating the search market is that it realized that if you reorganized web content moving from just the frequency of the search word to actually the number of links between pages and prioritize that, you ended up with faster and more relevant answers. This is similar because if you go back to the point that I was making initially, which is, yes, LLMs are really good at this multidimensional synthesis, but they do need”
2026-04-15 · Forward Guidance · How the World’s Biggest Macro Hedge Funds Are Using AI | Jan Szilagyi · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Shrink that gap, you'll be asking questions that previously you would have dismissed because you thought this is so outlandish. I'm not going to waste my endless time on this. But now you can't because it's going to be five minutes, right? Before your coffee is cold, you already have the answer. The second thing that we are able to do, particularly because of this knowledge graph and awareness, is also cover blind spots. And what this means is that the system is actively helping investors with the unknown unknowns. And that's where a lot of the anxiety for investors comes from, which is what might be happening, what are my peers doing that I don't know that I should know about, like what is out there that I'm missing.”
2026-04-15 · Forward Guidance · How the World’s Biggest Macro Hedge Funds Are Using AI | Jan Szilagyi · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“With the known unknowns. So questions they have that might have been spurred by something happening in the market or an ideas dinner and so on. And we are hoping to really just make it very easy to really shrink that gap between the question and the answer. How can we as quickly as possible conduct the analysis that hopefully answers the questions that are on your mind and you be able to answer all sorts of questions, right? Like if I can”
2026-04-15 · Forward Guidance · How the World’s Biggest Macro Hedge Funds Are Using AI | Jan Szilagyi · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“What we have effectively created is a combination of using the reasoning layer of these large language models to act as an interpreter between you in a vast analytical library. And then a proprietary knowledge graph that has linked all these disparate data sources to give the reasoning engine some sense of what are the first order effects, second order effects in the market, third order effects, and so on, which means that it understands in quite some detail that a steepening yield curve might have implications for banking stock prices and so on. A combination of these two, so this infrastructure between the data and the reasoning layer of large language models that requires interpretation, mapping, and so on, ultimately means that we are able to help investors, and this is a big use case for our clients.”
2026-04-15 · Forward Guidance · How the World’s Biggest Macro Hedge Funds Are Using AI | Jan Szilagyi · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Perfect. So what I should highlight first is that just maybe to zoom out a little bit to Help everybody understand why it is that anybody would in finance would actually be using this. Obviously, the first thought for everybody is, well, why couldn't I just basically go to Claude or ChatGPT and so on? And why couldn't I do that same analysis? And I think anybody who's used it for longer than a couple of weeks and try to use it for any more complex quantitative analysis, then you realize that you get some really wide discrepancy of answers that makes it difficult for you to base some high stakes decisions on this, which makes sense. Like large language models, ultimately we're not built to calculate. They were built to understand a lot of things. They're really good at understanding it. It's incredibly impressive how well they are ultimately also able to help with calculation by writing scripts on demand and so on. But that is not what ultimately they were designed to do.”
2026-04-15 · Forward Guidance · How the World’s Biggest Macro Hedge Funds Are Using AI | Jan Szilagyi · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“AI is particularly well suited to be able to also glean the sentiment of the time and compare it, like what was happening, how did they compare to any kind of negotiation that was taking place and so on. So, yeah, I think anybody who's currently using this technology, and if you're not, I definitely recommend that you do has had a great head start on understanding what's happening and hopefully at a minimum protect from any fallout.”
2026-04-15 · Forward Guidance · How the World’s Biggest Macro Hedge Funds Are Using AI | Jan Szilagyi · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“It's able to find actually quite a lot of very fruitful analogies going back to kind of like the 1970s and so on when you had some of these embargoes and you basically had very, very clearly politically restricted supply of oil. And people then in the short term couldn't really figure out where and how to replace some of that missing, some of that missing oil. Now, the difference, of course, now is that Do we have a more developed ecosystem of other types of energy sources and so on? So it's not quite as constrained as it was back then. But I mean, as you can see from the prices themselves, ultimately we definitely have not weaned ourselves off of oil, right? Like it's still drives a lot of what we do in the world. And so I would say fundamentally all of those examples continue to be very relevant.”
2026-04-15 · Forward Guidance · How the World’s Biggest Macro Hedge Funds Are Using AI | Jan Szilagyi · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“You currently try and test this in Reflexivity, it's definitely going to be continually looking for other what are effectively supply side shocks, right? And I think 07 was a little bit. By kind of a global financial crisis. And then all of a sudden, people are like, Oh my God, demand is actually evaporating, right? Or like, for example, COVID, when again, you suddenly said no one's going to use oil ever because we will never leave our house again and so on. So at the moment,”
2026-04-15 · Forward Guidance · How the World’s Biggest Macro Hedge Funds Are Using AI | Jan Szilagyi · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Even though we only have probably seven or eight such occurrences of it being so steep, you would always feel very comfortable betting on that because you understand what is happening, right? Like fundamentally, producers are basically leaving oil in the ground. They're selling futures out. They're making decisions that are actually relocating oil from today to the future. And therefore, there is actually a scarcity that is created today. If I have that kind of understanding of what drives this relationship between prices and a particular phenomenon, I don't need to see it happen 57 times. Seven can be ample for me to be very confident debating on it”
2026-04-15 · Forward Guidance · How the World’s Biggest Macro Hedge Funds Are Using AI | Jan Szilagyi · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“The second and related one that I think also helps with a small n is if you have a better understanding of the economic logic that drives these sensitivities, you ultimately don't really need that large of a sample size. A large sample size is often required because if we don't totally understand what the driver is or what the logic is, you want it to be Repeatable enough, or that there's enough ample evidence that it happens with such and such cadence that you trust that it'll happen again when you bet on it. On the other hand, If, let's say, so one pattern that we were studying for a long time is that a very steep contain going oil prices. Over time has been a great indicator of a bottom in cash prices of crude oil.”
2026-04-15 · Forward Guidance · How the World’s Biggest Macro Hedge Funds Are Using AI | Jan Szilagyi · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Is difficult to analyze that or the responses on the basis of any one country's history because with a few exceptions, they generally don't have them regularly enough for you to be like, oh, great, I'd love to have a sample of 15 for just, let's say, Brazil to understand, you know, like hyperinflation and so on. However, what I think reflexivity can be very good at helped with this technology is to better define the concept of similar. meaning I don't necessarily have to just study Brazil to understand the anatomy of a crisis. I can say, well, let's define the universe of emerging market countries and then try to create a data set that is going to effectively bring in similar experiences from countries with relatively similar fundamentals. And that's another way of then increasing the N at least somewhat.”
2026-04-15 · Forward Guidance · How the World’s Biggest Macro Hedge Funds Are Using AI | Jan Szilagyi · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“The short answer is yes, and there are at least two reasons why this can help with, I guess, as you're calling, sort of like the problem of n being relatively small. One is that, and I'll give you a concrete example, let's say that if you're a global macromanager and lucky in your career, you'll have run into at least one or several emerging markets crisis, right? Because that's when you'll typically see a big dislocation, a currency in rate spreads and so on.”
2026-04-15 · Forward Guidance · How the World’s Biggest Macro Hedge Funds Are Using AI | Jan Szilagyi · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“What I find interesting about trying to solve for that problem is it's always so funny looking at how folks on global macro decide in a quantitative manner on a thesis. So for example, curve inversions, right? Like every time, say the twos, tens inverts, you know, if you look at the past few decades, there's been this idea that it leads to a recession and any sort of other school of work, you know, that small amount of sample size would just kind of be laughed at. But in global macro, it's all we have, right? Like there's no better alternatives. It's like, okay, well, we have an end of 10. So that's what we're going to run with. And okay, it feels like good enough to make the bet there. When you talk about just the ability to synthesize so much data to derive these new interesting insights, like what was, do you see that as a solution to this idea of just so many different global macro thesis are so constrained by just limited numbers of sample sizes? Like, do you see your clients, your...”
2026-04-15 · Forward Guidance · How the World’s Biggest Macro Hedge Funds Are Using AI | Jan Szilagyi · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“A large language model is capable of doing what I guess I could describe as multidimensional synthesis. Like it's just doing all of these possibilities at once, right? It's not saying, oh, oil prices are higher. That could be bad for inflation. It means that it could be then higher rates or higher rates means multiple comes down. Instead, they're doing so like, oh, well, this is going to be bad for ethanol gasoline balance. It's good for the drillers. It's good for producers. It's going to mean higher interest rates. The curve could be much steeper and so on. That is an exciting way to deal with the abundance of data that we have in a much faster way to connect the dots. So it just felt like conceptually this was a technology that should go a long way towards helping us.”
2026-04-15 · Forward Guidance · How the World’s Biggest Macro Hedge Funds Are Using AI | Jan Szilagyi · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“The very strong intuition that I had continued to have, and I don't think it's necessarily been proven right yet, but at least it's looking better now than this five years ago, is that the technology as it's developing should represent a massive unlock of the value that is contained in all of the data that we have in finance. And there was a very simple reason for that, which is that when you notice the difference between how a human analyst will analyze a particular market event, it's quite linear. You look at the headline or you hear of an idea and you then step by step try to think about the repercussions, what it means, analyze each step and so on.”
2026-04-15 · Forward Guidance · How the World’s Biggest Macro Hedge Funds Are Using AI | Jan Szilagyi · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So, what I think became... Definitely very clear that in some way the kind of the public side of AI dates back to the release of ChadGPT, but obviously people had been experimenting with large language models before. And I think that it was even before ChatGPT clear to those who are closely that something special was happening. What was also true, however, is that some of the technology wasn't as readily available as it is today. So a lot of our early work was also based on some other aspects and continues to be actually some other aspects of AI, not just large language models.”
2026-04-15 · Forward Guidance · How the World’s Biggest Macro Hedge Funds Are Using AI | Jan Szilagyi · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“This is valued, kind of like the sort of the idea of a voting machine versus a weighing machine, right? So maybe we're just always kind of voting. Whereas now, I think we might be able to be a weighing machine on a much, much shorter horizon than it would have been possible without this technology. That ultimately was the thinking behind picking the name itself.”
2026-04-15 · Forward Guidance · How the World’s Biggest Macro Hedge Funds Are Using AI | Jan Szilagyi · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“The extent that reflexivity really does talk about this back and forth between markets reflecting fundamentals, but then fundamentals also responding to markets, the system that we have built is in principle meant for analysts and portfolio managers to be able in real time to give that feedback to whoever is running a company or a government, how and where their decisions might be taken them and therefore altering them potentially. So you do have the more we're able to understand based on the data whether or not a particular decision is a good one or a bad one the more that might then be a signal to the decision maker to potentially alter the current course so you're in some way i think strengthening that link right like if we were all totally in the dark we would basically just sort of look at the company and say like okay well we have no clue what this would”
2026-04-15 · Forward Guidance · How the World’s Biggest Macro Hedge Funds Are Using AI | Jan Szilagyi · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“As you already mentioned, yes, it was not a coincidence. I think conceptually for a lot of people who are in global macro, I think George Sora still represents to an extent kind of he's like the godfather of global macro investing, right? I think he for many of us made it seem just very cool because you could ask these very deep questions and yet at the same time also turn them into something that made money in his case quite a lot of money. reflexivity concept itself was relevant for us specifically because”
2026-04-15 · Forward Guidance · How the World’s Biggest Macro Hedge Funds Are Using AI | Jan Szilagyi · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT