YouSaid · the spoken record

Jared Bernstein

lines on the record: 45
first: 2021-05-13
most recent: 2021-05-13
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

Every line below is reproduced as it was said and linked to the record it came from. Nothing here is summarised or generated. Directory · Search · Corrections

“I think there might be, but just for the record, we should recognize that this isn't the first time we've done that by a long shot. And in fact, I remember checks going out under George Bush before the financial crisis and earlier checks as well. I think what happened this round is that they got out really quickly and they were of a magnitude that made a real difference to people. And the president was talking, you know, I think before he was president in November and December after he won the election, he was talking about how important it was to not just get these checks out, but to get another round of checks out. So I think your prediction about future expectations is probably correct. And I think one thing that complements that prediction is the fact that the IRS infrastructure was stood up.”
2021-05-13 · Odd Lots · Jared Bernstein on Taxes, Spending, and Why President Biden Wants to 'Pay for It' · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Sometimes the political process can be too cumbersome. So the idea of these triggers is something that the president, as I've mentioned, has talked about on occasion. But I think that where we go from there, I can't speak to it at this point.”
2021-05-13 · Odd Lots · Jared Bernstein on Taxes, Spending, and Why President Biden Wants to 'Pay for It' · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, actually, this is something that the president has leaned into on occasion in some of his speeches he's talked about the importance of that. And there have been various pieces of legislation. I think, again, I think the political economy of that is challenging because there's the discretion that Congress likes to hold on to. But I think there are politicians, quite a few prominent folks. I don't remember names right now because this is in some bills that agree with this proposition and that recognize that when you hit a downturn, when the economy hits a shock, it could be whether it's a housing or a financial bubble or a pandemic or the kind of thing that hits us hard and fast.”
2021-05-13 · Odd Lots · Jared Bernstein on Taxes, Spending, and Why President Biden Wants to 'Pay for It' · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“When he was going up to Congress saying, we're doing everything we can to make sure that credit markets are fluid and that borrowing costs are low, but unless people have the resources that they need, which is going to involve temporary fiscal policy because the economy is still climbing back slowly, we'll be pushing on a string. So there's that. I also think that if properly implemented, fiscal policy and monetary policy can be complementary in terms of a regime wherein the Federal Reserve is not always looking over its shoulder at the zero lower bound. You have robust fiscal policy and you have a monetary regime that looks less like what we've seen over the last decade or even more where the interest rate is at zero most of the time.”
2021-05-13 · Odd Lots · Jared Bernstein on Taxes, Spending, and Why President Biden Wants to 'Pay for It' · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I think that they just naturally interact all the time. And I think that what we've seen in the current recovery, largely from a macro sense, is the importance of the one-two punch of fiscal and monetary policy. There is a risk going back to Keynes if you're relying on monetary policy alone of pushing on a string. That is, you can make credit as accessible as you want, but if people don't have direct impact payments or checks, money in their pockets, they won't have the resources to take advantage of those low rates. So I think one of the lessons of the last couple of downturns is that fiscal and monetary have to work together. By the way, one way to just underscore this point is to go back and listen to what Ben Bernanke was saying to Congress back in 2000.”
2021-05-13 · Odd Lots · Jared Bernstein on Taxes, Spending, and Why President Biden Wants to 'Pay for It' · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Watch all your favorite podcasts from start to finish right inside the free iHer Radio app. Gets the blood going, huh? Catch every laugh and eye roll. On shows like The Tom Green Farmcast and Park the Bus. Now with full video. We're building a ramp for Tony Hawk. It's the same hosts and the same chemistry with all the hilarious moments you've been missing right on your screen. Open the free iHeart Radio app. Search video podcasts and tap watch.”
2021-05-13 · Odd Lots · Jared Bernstein on Taxes, Spending, and Why President Biden Wants to 'Pay for It' · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And at least from a kind of macro labor perspective, it's all about trying to reconnect middle class working families to the overall prosperity in the economy. And then I'll finish up. That's why we started this conversation saying, boy, we're getting some good growth numbers. GDP north of 6% in Q1. That's great. We're all for it. It does not obviate the work that I just described because at the end of the day, if this administration achieves high GDP growth, low unemployment, a booming stock market, but it doesn't reach the middle class in the way that the president has set out for us, we will have failed to march to his marching orders. And that's not something I want to do. You've heard the chaos. Now you can see it”
2021-05-13 · Odd Lots · Jared Bernstein on Taxes, Spending, and Why President Biden Wants to 'Pay for It' · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“That's what he's doing. So unions are part of that because as Bivins and Michelle have shown in various papers, and it's going to be part of this new one as well, the loss of bargaining power for workers in the middle class has certainly put downward pressure on wages. The absence of persistent full employment, as Joe's question suggested, is very much in that mix. The inaccessibility for women to in particular caretakers to have a clear line of access into the job market because there's a childcare sector that's affordable and accessible. The absence of investment in good middle class jobs and new expanding areas of the economy, including advanced manufacturing, clean energy, electric vehicles. These are all parts of the plan.”
2021-05-13 · Odd Lots · Jared Bernstein on Taxes, Spending, and Why President Biden Wants to 'Pay for It' · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Compensation. The compensation of workers right in the middle of the scale was flat, flat, flat for not all of those years. And in fact, in the latter 90s, when the job market really tightened up precisely like my earlier theories were trying to predict, then you saw some action at the median. But for the most part, and by the way, Larry Michelle and Josh Bibbins have a forthcoming paper on this, which is really elucidating. You need to get them on here and talk to them about it. And Joe Biden, who's the vice president-elect then, pointed to that graph and said, this is what I want us to work on. I want middle class people to get a fair shake. I want to think about the policy agenda that's going to, in my words, relink median compensation and overall economic growth. And that agenda is a deep one. And now that you see what the president is up to.”
2021-05-13 · Odd Lots · Jared Bernstein on Taxes, Spending, and Why President Biden Wants to 'Pay for It' · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Maybe 0.75, depending on the endpoints that you choose. That is most of the quarters or most of the years since 1980. This economy has been slack, and that's by a measure which probably in many years Pitches the natural rate too high. So it's probably even worse than that. So the foundation of your question is exactly right. We have not had tight enough labor markets. And that's one of the great insights of recent federal reserves. And again, links back to the importance of recognizing fiscal space. Now, Joe Biden is not an economist, but I've been talking with him about this since we sat down in his house in November of 2008 and talked about me perhaps coming on as his chief economist. The very first thing we talked about, he pulled out a graph that I'd made with Larry Michelle, which showed the gap between productivity growth and median compensation. Okay, so productivity growth grows, grows, grows, not as fast as we'd like, but it does grow a percent, percent and a half per year on trend. And the median...”
2021-05-13 · Odd Lots · Jared Bernstein on Taxes, Spending, and Why President Biden Wants to 'Pay for It' · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, that's a great question. Let me talk about it from my economist's perspective and then shift to the president's vision here because the latter is way more important because he's the president. Here's a statistic that I haven't cooked up lately, but so this number changes, as you'll see. But I think I'm in the right ballpark. If you look at the percentage of quarters starting around 1980, which is the period when job markets have been persistently to slack, if you look at the percentage of quarters where the unemployment rate has been above the CBO's estimate of what the natural rate is, that is, the lowest unemployment rate consistent with full employment, that ratio is”
2021-05-13 · Odd Lots · Jared Bernstein on Taxes, Spending, and Why President Biden Wants to 'Pay for It' · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Different margins, not just the expensive margin, which is pulling people into the job market who weren't there before, but as much and even more so, the intensive margin, giving those people way more hours of work if that's what they wanted. And the changes, for say, African Americans in the bottom quintile, I did a paper with a guy named Keith Bentley on this, which you can find out there somewhere, are economically really large. So those connections, what I can talk about is what I mentioned in my last comment is the intersection between critically important new insights in fiscal space and in the relationships between unemployment and inflation, the linkage between those insights and the ability to maintain full employment with such deep benefits to groups that are too often left behind.”
2021-05-13 · Odd Lots · Jared Bernstein on Taxes, Spending, and Why President Biden Wants to 'Pay for It' · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, so when I wrote that I wasn't in the administration and I felt that that was so I was again I was playing chin music all day about things that I don't sing about now and by the way I think if you look back at least what I was trying to say was not so much that the Fed should target black unemployment, but that racial equity and monetary policy are linked in the way that I was describing a minute ago because if you look at who benefits disproportionately from tight labor markets, it's people and communities of color. And actually you could see this in a way that was fascinating to me. I was writing empirical papers about this crunching the heck out of every number I could find showing how persistently low unemployment was providing labor market opportunities on so many”
2021-05-13 · Odd Lots · Jared Bernstein on Taxes, Spending, and Why President Biden Wants to 'Pay for It' · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Driven approach to both fiscal and monetary policy. And that's a really great advance, particularly from the perspective of tightening labor markets. And there you've heard, again, this dates back before Powell. There you've heard the Federal Reserve make critically important connections by the way, most of my research agenda before I took this particular job was in this space that I'm about to mention. The really important connection between achieving full employment and pushing back on racial inequities, on economic inequality, providing folks and communities are typically left behind with the kind of economic opportunities they need and deserve, that is very much linked up to achieving persistent, stable, full employment. And getting to persistent, stable, truly chock full employment is itself.”
2021-05-13 · Odd Lots · Jared Bernstein on Taxes, Spending, and Why President Biden Wants to 'Pay for It' · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Employment and inflation. And in this regard, I think one of Powell's most important speeches was, I believe, as a Jackson Hole speech, when he talked about how because there's so much uncertainty around what we call the star variables, Y star, U star, R star, potential GDP, the natural rate of unemployment, the natural rate of interest, these are all theoretical concepts that I don't know if maybe it's too strong to say that can't be, but are extremely hard to be reliably estimated, by which I mean estimated within a policy-relevant confidence interval, that I think, going back to Bernanke, Yellen, Powell, the recognition that the confidence interval around those estimates is far, far wider than was realized before and that it's beyond our empirical scope to nail them down has led to a much more data”
2021-05-13 · Odd Lots · Jared Bernstein on Taxes, Spending, and Why President Biden Wants to 'Pay for It' · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“My goal used to be to make news. Now, my goal is to not make news, so I'm not going to make news. Let me say instead the following. I talked a second ago about what I think is one of the most important advances in political economy, which is the recognition of true fiscal space, a recognition that I think was significantly fogged up by views on crowding out how public borrowing would crowd out private borrowing and pressure interest rates that has long been unsupported by the empirical record. Well, there's another important, the other equally important economic development that I would put really in the stratosphere of ways that economists are better understanding how economies really work is, of course, the relationship between unemployment.”
2021-05-13 · Odd Lots · Jared Bernstein on Taxes, Spending, and Why President Biden Wants to 'Pay for It' · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, I'm definitely not going to say anything about personnel. You know, this is I used to be a gum flapping chin music making pundit who talked about all this kind of thing all day long and it's hard to draw that line now and remember that I'm in the White House.”
2021-05-13 · Odd Lots · Jared Bernstein on Taxes, Spending, and Why President Biden Wants to 'Pay for It' · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I'm not going to lean into something substantial because that begs the question of what you're talking about and we have to run an extensive process before we, you know, I don't front run the president, which is why I still have my job. But look at what he said. It's actually worth reading. Look at what he said in the joint address and in the family's plan because he really does lean into what we're going to be planning to do in that space.”
2021-05-13 · Odd Lots · Jared Bernstein on Taxes, Spending, and Why President Biden Wants to 'Pay for It' · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, again, I think if you look at a couple of different places, you'll find that the president has leaned into that and not really shied away. So in the joint address, there was a very important paragraph where the president spoke about how important the healthcare agenda is going to be for our administration. There's also some similar language in the fact sheet around the family plan. I feel like we've been here for about 10 years already, but in fact we've only been here for a few months. I think we just hit the first hundred days. So we have to move the freight on different cars at different times. But if you look back to the campaign, you'll see many areas that the president has leaned into. And he is just ticking through them with alacrity, with power, with legislation, and with, you know, I think.”
2021-05-13 · Odd Lots · Jared Bernstein on Taxes, Spending, and Why President Biden Wants to 'Pay for It' · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Policy with enough power to offset the contraction, your debt to GDP ratio could actually worsen because you've done too little to boost the denominator GDP. And again, there's, I think, some pretty solid research that makes this case. So I think the urgency and the intersection of good policy and politics boosted by high quality economic research has all landed us in a moment where we've recognized greater fiscal space.”
2021-05-13 · Odd Lots · Jared Bernstein on Taxes, Spending, and Why President Biden Wants to 'Pay for It' · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, that environment does exist. There's more fiscal space and there's more political space to wield that fiscal space. Now, the fiscal space existed before, but here's an area where I think kind of empirical public finance economics has made real strides, say, from the last time I was in government dealing with a downturn in the great recession after the housing bust. And now, interestingly, as you point out, the current president was the vice president there. And I think one of the lessons he learned is go big or go home is not just important fiscal policy when you're punching back against a globally threatening pandemic or last time against a globally harmful financial slash housing bust. But there's also not only the fiscal space to do so, but there's actually good research that shows if you fail to wield fiscal power.”
2021-05-13 · Odd Lots · Jared Bernstein on Taxes, Spending, and Why President Biden Wants to 'Pay for It' · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I do think that there can be a gap between theory and practice not unlike the one I just talked about in terms of to Joe in terms of why I think President Biden's view on pay for the investment programs makes sense.”
2021-05-13 · Odd Lots · Jared Bernstein on Taxes, Spending, and Why President Biden Wants to 'Pay for It' · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“That's a good example because in MMT, there's a belief that if inflation were to take off, this is a kind of a timely point, I think, if inflation were to take off, don't worry and don't assign much to the Fed because that's just not part of the kind of cosmology there, you can just raise taxes to take money out of the economy. Well, that's a cogent theoretical point. But when applied to the real political economy and the legislative timing involved therein and the partisan squabbling involved therein, that's not a very, I think, realistic solution, especially when you have a central bank whose independence allows it to get outside of that political constraints there and do what needs to be done for very good, sound economic reasons.”
2021-05-13 · Odd Lots · Jared Bernstein on Taxes, Spending, and Why President Biden Wants to 'Pay for It' · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I think let me answer it this way. I won't name names, but I was trying to draft an economist to come in and work with us, someone I'm really fond of their work. And he's a private sector person. And what I said to him is if you really want to understand how the economy and the nexus of the economy and government work, and I would include theory in that nexus, Tracy, you've got to work for the government. You can't understand it if you don't. So I do think that there is a kind of empirical gap between what a lot of theoretical economists sort of write about and even some empirical economists write about and a kind of tangible granular understanding of how economic policy really works. I think you mentioned MMT.”
2021-05-13 · Odd Lots · Jared Bernstein on Taxes, Spending, and Why President Biden Wants to 'Pay for It' · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Having to fund these building back better plans, it would be that the return on the investments should be greater than the cost of borrowing. And that is true, and it makes sense to me. And you'll hear economists, some of my economist friends make that point. They say, hey, look, you're going to get a return on these investments that are greater than your borrowing cost, which of course are historically low. So why pay for them? And I totally get the economics and the public finance kind of the G greater than R thinking behind that. But what I think it misses is the political economy of the sustainability point that Joe Biden just intuitively understand.”
2021-05-13 · Odd Lots · Jared Bernstein on Taxes, Spending, and Why President Biden Wants to 'Pay for It' · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“We actually have something called the Highway Trust Fund. This is a federal accounting device wherein resources are supposed to flow to fund our highway system. And its main source of income is a nominal tax on gas that hasn't been changed in like 35 years or something. And even as, you know, obviously inflation has increased and the efficiency of the auto fleet has increased. The highway trust fund is always in massive trouble. And it's one of the reasons why our transportation infrastructure, including mass transit, by the way, mass transit, which by the way, is in the rescue plan and the jobs plan quite deeply. That trust fund has failed to support that. And the reason is it's a law on the books. And according to your theory, a law on the books should be all that it takes, but it isn't. It takes more than that. I actually think if one wanted to make a better kind of an argument against”
2021-05-13 · Odd Lots · Jared Bernstein on Taxes, Spending, and Why President Biden Wants to 'Pay for It' · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“No, I mean, I really think on this one, the way I kind of laid it out is, this sounds more snarky than I mean, is more correct than the way you just laid it out. But let me just explain.”
2021-05-13 · Odd Lots · Jared Bernstein on Taxes, Spending, and Why President Biden Wants to 'Pay for It' · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And you could call that a more progressive way. I'd probably call it a more economically and empirically sound way. I'm very much moved by that work. I also think you have to recognize that the effects of not having funding sources for permanent programs show up all the time in their disinvestment and their insufficient upkeep. By contrast, look at Medicare and Social Security, which have held up relatively well in that space because they have dedicated funding sources.”
2021-05-13 · Odd Lots · Jared Bernstein on Taxes, Spending, and Why President Biden Wants to 'Pay for It' · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Let in them, you know, there's hundreds of thousands of kids who are still exposed in today's America to lead in their water. That's completely unacceptable to this administration. Again, I talked earlier about a care agenda, but even traditional stuff, you know, roads and bridges. Those investments have really suffered over the long term. And if you look at the share of GDP invested, for example, in R&D and innovation, it's gone from about 2% in the 60s to about half a percent now. A big and portentious drop. Ring those investments is the point of the Building Back Better Agenda. And one of the reasons why those investments have failed is because they don't have any reliable funding sources. So while I completely understand and have, in fact, contributed to the literature that understands deficits and debt in a new and different way.”
2021-05-13 · Odd Lots · Jared Bernstein on Taxes, Spending, and Why President Biden Wants to 'Pay for It' · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Let's get to the kind of meaty part of your question around how we're thinking about deficits and debt. It is the president's view that longer-term or more permanent proposals should be paid for. I think that makes sense. And I think one way to recognize the sense that that makes is to look at the disinvestment in the things that the jobs plan in particular, as well as the families plan, invests in. research and development, innovation, the kinds of long-term return investments that private firms often won't make because it simply doesn't fit the kind of schedule that they have to report on to their investors. If you look at infrastructure, everything from public education to replacing pipes that have”
2021-05-13 · Odd Lots · Jared Bernstein on Taxes, Spending, and Why President Biden Wants to 'Pay for It' · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Okay, and I think the reason you get that result is twofold. One is that many cases we're resetting rates to where they've been before, or not even in the case of the corporate rate, of course, the Trump tax took the corporate rate from 35 to 21. We take it to 28. That's our proposal. So that's kind of right in the middle. But also, and this is most important for listeners to recognize that these tax increases do not hit anybody under 400,000 family income. And if we're talking about the capital gains tax increase, it's only above $1 million, so it only affects the top 0.3%. Okay, so now that we got that out of the way.”
2021-05-13 · Odd Lots · Jared Bernstein on Taxes, Spending, and Why President Biden Wants to 'Pay for It' · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And, well, it's not just saying that I happen to be looking right now at a new paper that just came out by the economist Mark Zandi. And in chart three of that paper, he shows the building back better, that is American families and jobs plan tax hikes in context. And he has a bar chart of all the tax hikes that have occurred since the 1930s, really. It's really a lot of work went into this chart. And the one at the very bottom is the one we've proposed. So I think you have to recognize two things about it.”
2021-05-13 · Odd Lots · Jared Bernstein on Taxes, Spending, and Why President Biden Wants to 'Pay for It' · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“No, it's only taking about three and a half hours, but I'll. First of all, though, I want to challenge an adjective you use, which is enormous.”
2021-05-13 · Odd Lots · Jared Bernstein on Taxes, Spending, and Why President Biden Wants to 'Pay for It' · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Markets in this economy. The care area is one where that's really pronounced, where unlike most other advanced countries, we simply don't have an affordable, accessible care sector for people who are providing elder care or childcare, which those people are disproportionately women and moms, to be able to find a clear path into the job market if that's what they want to do. So we have to help stand up that sector. The economy will underinvest in research and innovation, particularly when the returns from those investments are longer term. The economy will underinvest in clean energy at a tremendous existential cost. to our survival. And so there are areas where we have to make sure that our investment meets those missing markets and helps to create demand that will lead to better quality jobs and investments in underinvested sectors.”
2021-05-13 · Odd Lots · Jared Bernstein on Taxes, Spending, and Why President Biden Wants to 'Pay for It' · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“The man pulls in supply. That theory of the case is very much embedded in my, and I would argue our thinking in the administration. However, that said, if you look at our plans, particularly the jobs plan, but also the families plan, the longer term investment plans, what you see there is not a kind of acceptance that it's completely up to the market to align supply and demand and deliver whatever outcomes the market delivers full stop and we'll just stand on the sideline and observe there's much more intention there about, for example, not just job creation, but the quality of the jobs that are created, ensuring that those jobs are union jobs that pay a good middle class wage. That's one of President Biden's most important marching orders to us. It's recognizing that there are serious missing.”
2021-05-13 · Odd Lots · Jared Bernstein on Taxes, Spending, and Why President Biden Wants to 'Pay for It' · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“We and others have packed a lot into this word transitory, but I think what it really means is that we expect these misalignments to correct, although I don't know that any of us really have a great feel for the timing of that because we haven't been through this before. I mean, like you said, Joe, earlier, this is a remarkable period. We essentially shut the economy off and we're turning it back on. That's not something that we have a lot of time series evidence on. I think that theoretically, the theory of the case is kind of this law, and this is very traditional kind of Keynesian economics, is this recognition that the world works much more in Keynesian term than in Sey's law term, meaning that it's not correct to believe that supply creates demand, it's more correct to believe that”
2021-05-13 · Odd Lots · Jared Bernstein on Taxes, Spending, and Why President Biden Wants to 'Pay for It' · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, generally I would say more yes than no, although nobody, I wouldn't use the phrase short blip because we just don't know.”
2021-05-13 · Odd Lots · Jared Bernstein on Taxes, Spending, and Why President Biden Wants to 'Pay for It' · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Lumber sends a signal to saw Mills to activate lines that have been dormant. And there are misalignments that evolved throughout the course of the pandemic where I think some key actors took down production, not foreseeing that it would come back as quickly as it did and those sorts of things. That's not necessarily a position for an administration to intervene. But we'll see how that evolves as time unfolds.”
2021-05-13 · Odd Lots · Jared Bernstein on Taxes, Spending, and Why President Biden Wants to 'Pay for It' · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Legitimate question that is addressed by some of the measures in the jobs plan in particular, you mentioned semiconductors. So there's a $50 billion investment in the jobs plan to help promote an onshore some critical supply chain aspects, including semiconductors. But this is not something that happens right away. I mean, as I was mentioning to Joe, you know, obviously unlike the rescue plan, the jobs plan still has to be legislated, but it takes a couple of years to stand up a semiconductor plant. When it comes to addressing what we're looking at as transitory misalignments between supply and demand and some of the sectors you mentioned, I think right there we have to think about the sort of elasticities or response functions that occur in markets where demand for”
2021-05-13 · Odd Lots · Jared Bernstein on Taxes, Spending, and Why President Biden Wants to 'Pay for It' · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So let me begin my answer there with a very firm statement, which may sound a little tangential to your question, Tracy, but I don't think is, which is that when it comes to managing inflation, that is first and last beginning and end. I don't know, I want to just really emphasize this, the remit of the Federal Reserve, not the White House. Clearly, we are tracking carefully monitoring inflationary developments. And by the way, not just in the data, which we're doing with the regular data, the high frequency data, but also anecdotes. I mean, this is something we're tracking extremely carefully. But when it comes to managing price pressures, that's the job of the Federal Reserve. Yeah, so that kind of independence of the Fed is a huge value of, of course, our administration. That said, you raise a perfectly”
2021-05-13 · Odd Lots · Jared Bernstein on Taxes, Spending, and Why President Biden Wants to 'Pay for It' · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Term clean energy initiatives, advanced manufacturing, standing up a care sector, measures which I'm sure we can get into from the families and jobs plan, pretty different creatures from the perspective of price pressures”
2021-05-13 · Odd Lots · Jared Bernstein on Taxes, Spending, and Why President Biden Wants to 'Pay for It' · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“But putting that distinction aside for a second, there's a big difference between direct impact payments or the checks you were just referencing and enhanced unemployment benefit, PPP loans, things like that. And a set of investments that spend out over eight to ten years, both from the perspective of kind of the political economy or the kind of the politics of those different initiatives. And to your question, from the perspective of inflation, I think it's actually quite a non-sequitor to talk about the jobs and the family plan and the kind of monthly inflation reads that we're digging into right now that are very much driven by base effects, by what we believe to be transitory supply demand misalignments by some of the pent-up demand and the elevated savings rates. And investments in long-term...”
2021-05-13 · Odd Lots · Jared Bernstein on Taxes, Spending, and Why President Biden Wants to 'Pay for It' · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I think anything you undertake in Washington given the legislative environment is a political challenge, but you're very much correct to think about this, at least from my perspective and that of our economic team, from the perspective of political economy or the intersection of politics and the kind of economics concerns embedded in your question. From the inflation perspective, it's really, really important to separate the American rescue plan from the families and jobs plan because the former is very much in the spirit really of relief more than stimulus. And that's a subtle difference, but one that I think it probably isn't lost on this audience where stimulus is often about trying to quickly address a demand shock and get people back into the economy where relief is more about helping people and businesses get to the other side.”
2021-05-13 · Odd Lots · Jared Bernstein on Taxes, Spending, and Why President Biden Wants to 'Pay for It' · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I've taken many a jog accompanied by the two of you, which has both helped burn calories and learn something while I'm running.”
2021-05-13 · Odd Lots · Jared Bernstein on Taxes, Spending, and Why President Biden Wants to 'Pay for It' · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Thanks so much for inviting me. I think the right way to start is to say long time listener, first time caller, as they say.”
2021-05-13 · Odd Lots · Jared Bernstein on Taxes, Spending, and Why President Biden Wants to 'Pay for It' · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source