YouSaid · the spoken record

Jared Dillian

lines on the record: 83
first: 2022-09-15
most recent: 2022-09-15
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

Every line below is reproduced as it was said and linked to the record it came from. Nothing here is summarised or generated. Directory · Search · Corrections

“Yeah, so we get a party coming up September 16th, Friday, September 16th. It's at do D-O-U-X Supper Club in New York City. It's at 59 West 21st Street. If you want to buy tickets. Would love to have a bunch of people there. It's my party. I mean, Jack's been to one of my parties. It was a hoot. And the music is going to be amazing.”
2022-09-15 · Forward Guidance · The Energy Trade Has Gone Too Far | Jared Dillian · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Thanks. That is my favorite book. I really, really like that book. And I think everyone should get a copy. What I told you was if you read the first page, it's going to punch you right in the face and then you're not going to be able to put it down.”
2022-09-15 · Forward Guidance · The Energy Trade Has Gone Too Far | Jared Dillian · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I have a lot of respect for David Rosenberg. I think that if we do get to the 2400 and the S&P 500, it is because of inflation. And I'm pretty sure Rosenberg's case is because of a giant recession. But interesting. Well, Jared, you've been really generous with your time before we go. I want to let people know that. So I had read your first book, Street Freak, which is autobiographical. Very good. It's very popular. People probably already heard it already. I didn't know about your second book, All the Evil of this World, which is actually a novel, which you don't have a lot of folks in finance writing novels. And, Darede, because you're in finance, I always forget how good of a writer you are. You know what I mean? Because people in finance are not good at writing. But you're a really good writer. And it's a tale of a specific trade in, I think, 2000 in the options pits, but it's told from seven different characters.”
2022-09-15 · Forward Guidance · The Energy Trade Has Gone Too Far | Jared Dillian · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, I mean, I heard Rosenberg is saying we're going to get down to 2,400 in the SP. That's not happening. It's definitely not happening.”
2022-09-15 · Forward Guidance · The Energy Trade Has Gone Too Far | Jared Dillian · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, that was my reaction, to be honest. When you said 5%. So you think the lowest we get is 5%, and then that's 5% is the new 2%. That seems, I mean, that means that inflation expectations have to be higher than they are now. That is, to me, that sounds like a pretty bearish scenario for stocks as well as bonds.”
2022-09-15 · Forward Guidance · The Energy Trade Has Gone Too Far | Jared Dillian · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I would say four to five. I would say four to five is low as we're going to get. We probably get there in middle of 2023. You know, I mean, basically what that means is we're not going to have zero rates again. That's not happening. We're going to have persistently high interest rates. Now, you know, when a lot of people hear that, they're like, oh my God, stocks are going to crash, blah, blah, blah. No, not necessarily. I mean, you know, I was, you know, when I came into the markets in 1999, Fed funds was 6.5%. And I want to say inflation was like four and a half percent. You know what I mean? So which is like, and the economy was doing great. So it's, you know, I think we'll do fine under those circumstances, but we're not going to have this ultra loose.”
2022-09-15 · Forward Guidance · The Energy Trade Has Gone Too Far | Jared Dillian · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“You could be right. Jared, I want to ask you. So it sounds like in the short term, you think CPI will fall, inflation will fall quite sharply because if you're right about the energy, so much of the headline CPI has been these energy prices. But what about longer-term structural inflation? I was reading in your newsletter, The Daily Dirt Nap, that you think 2% is not 2% inflation as being the norm is not going to be the norm anymore. So what is the new norm? 3%, 3.5%. And does that change the macro environment for like the next five years?”
2022-09-15 · Forward Guidance · The Energy Trade Has Gone Too Far | Jared Dillian · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Well, I mean, you know, Biden's approval rating is 38%, probably the biggest driver of that is inflation. So the thinking is we're going to fight inflation hard until the midterms and then ease up on it afterwards. Maybe that's a cynical way to look at it, but could happen.”
2022-09-15 · Forward Guidance · The Energy Trade Has Gone Too Far | Jared Dillian · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I just want to square what you said with your earlier comment that we're not going to have a 2007-2008 real estate collapse. Interest rates mortgage rates have shot up, so the housing market, it stopped going up and in some instances, you know, it's gone down. Niciller, it's really hard for that index to go down just because it's like diversified, which is funny because it's diversified bro argument was like what caused the 2008 financial crisis. But I think they the Fed they're like the homeowners, they're fine.”
2022-09-15 · Forward Guidance · The Energy Trade Has Gone Too Far | Jared Dillian · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Is that the Fed has historically protected the housing market a lot more than it is right now? The housing market is our number one engine of economic growth. And they seem to be like sort of willfully oblivious to the fact that the housing market is like gagging because of all these rate hikes. And they don't really seem to care. So it's kind of interesting to me.”
2022-09-15 · Forward Guidance · The Energy Trade Has Gone Too Far | Jared Dillian · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So two and a half on tens was a good selling opportunity. Honestly, I think we should kind of be in a range between like three and three and a half. Like that kind of makes the most sense. I don't really see a scenario where rates go to four, four and a half or some absurd number like that. It would cause, I mean, it already is causing a lot of pain. Mortgage rates as of today, the mortgage rates came out. 30-year fixed mortgage in the US is now 5.86%. It got up to 6.2% a couple of months ago, but 5.86% is, you know, pretty high in the context of the housing market not doing so great. So the one thing I've always been a little puzzled about with the Fed.”
2022-09-15 · Forward Guidance · The Energy Trade Has Gone Too Far | Jared Dillian · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“10's got up to three and a half the first time on that CPI print where everybody panicked and then it rallied all the way to two and a half like I don't know if you remember that but it got all the way to two and a half and now it looks like we're going to do a double top at three and a half two and a half on tens is too low like that's that's pricing in a large recession which I don't think we're going to get so and a”
2022-09-15 · Forward Guidance · The Energy Trade Has Gone Too Far | Jared Dillian · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, I mean, the one thing I will say is people forget this. If the feds, let's say the Fed pivots, right? The dollar is going to move like a week or two before it pivots, right? Oh, yeah, lower. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah. Like that's how markets work. You know what I mean? You hear people make these statements like, oh, like, you know, the dollar will, you know, you can get short the dollar when the Fed pivots. Yeah, by the time the Fed pivots, it's too late, which is why you need to trade sentiment and why you need to trade the charts, you know? And actually, it's funny because, you know, Brent Johnson, who I think is a friend of mine, but when I was at Bloomberg over the summer, I wrote an article about the cult of the dollar bowls, right? And I mentioned Brent Johnson. Now, I wasn't pejorative. I wasn't ripping on him. But basically I said, like, you know, he has a lot of followers. There's a lot of dollar bowls out there and he's kind of in the middle of it. And I think that's a top in the dollar. Well, it was kind of like an interim top. And then we recently blasted through that. But, I mean,”
2022-09-15 · Forward Guidance · The Energy Trade Has Gone Too Far | Jared Dillian · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Are you dumb? Did you listen to what I just said? So interest rates differentials matter a huge amount for currencies. And if a big driver of the euro's weakness against the dollar was that euro yielded zero and the two-year U.S. treasury yielded 2.5%, now like 3.4%. And so money just flooded into the US. I think that on net net could change a little bit. So net net, I think that the year, I mean, I don't really have a view, but I think Definitely, I think the euro has a better chance against the dollar today than it did like two months ago.”
2022-09-15 · Forward Guidance · The Energy Trade Has Gone Too Far | Jared Dillian · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Well, I made a pretty noisy short call on the dollar, and I got stopped out, not by much, by like a percent, but if you have integrity on Twitter, then you say that you were wrong. You know what I mean? So it broke through my level and I stopped myself out and whatever. I still, I'm still bearish on the dollar. I'm still bearish on the dollar. I actually think we're making another top as we speak, even in the last day or two trading days, the dollar has sold off quite a bit. So I don't know what the catalyst for that is, I'm not really sure. Maybe it's Europe getting better, maybe it's the Fed pivoting, who knows. But chart looks pretty toppy for me in the DXY.”
2022-09-15 · Forward Guidance · The Energy Trade Has Gone Too Far | Jared Dillian · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“The night goes two steps forward, one step to the side, and then you change the rules and it goes diagonally. And you just have to completely alter the way you play. And a lot of people get caught up in regime change, and they just aren't able to adapt and how they were making money before. They can't make money anymore. I guess what I'm saying is this regime that we're in, which has lasted about six or eight months. Like it's not permanent. It's going to change. I don't know what the new regime is going to be like, but everyone's going to get sconed.”
2022-09-15 · Forward Guidance · The Energy Trade Has Gone Too Far | Jared Dillian · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I think that what a lot of people do is they make assumptions that the current market environment is going to persist forever, right? So this environment we're in right now, energy is outperforming, tech is underperforming, interest rates are going up, gold is going down, all this shit. So this regime, people think that this regime is going to persist for a long time and these trades will continue to work. But what happened inevitably in the markets like regimes change and different things start to work. You know, one of the things I like to say about the markets is that they exhibit a property that I call non-stationarity. And non-stationarity means that you're playing a game where the rules constantly change. You know what I mean? So it's a bit like playing chess. You're playing chess.”
2022-09-15 · Forward Guidance · The Energy Trade Has Gone Too Far | Jared Dillian · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Jared, how else do people get themselves in trouble? And maybe in this current environment, other than being super hyper bullish on oil and natural gas energy, what do you think people are doing or saying that is getting them in trouble that you think will not be good for them? You're trying to avoid”
2022-09-15 · Forward Guidance · The Energy Trade Has Gone Too Far | Jared Dillian · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Jared, you're exactly right. And I think that's true regardless of who is analyzing it, is that the fundamentals always in some ways look best at the top. Natural gas companies, the fundamentals have literally never looked better than right now. And obviously it was by definition, it was a better time to buy it in May of 2020 when the fundamentals looked absolutely horrible. So you have to foresee the fundamentals and predict them and accurately predice how those forward fundamentals will be priced. As opposed to just saying, oh, wow, like this company is trading at a 10 PE. It's a buy.”
2022-09-15 · Forward Guidance · The Energy Trade Has Gone Too Far | Jared Dillian · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I literally bought the highs in the stock. I was like the last person to find out. You know what I mean? And I did all the fundamental work. Like I bought it for fundamental reasons. I was just the last person. So it just doesn't work for me.”
2022-09-15 · Forward Guidance · The Energy Trade Has Gone Too Far | Jared Dillian · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“One thing I'll say about fundamentals, I'm not saying that my way is the right way and everybody should do it my way because some people are very successful with fundamentals. With me, when I try to use fundamentals, I find that I am very, very late to a trade. I am very late. And some people are good at using fundamentals and being early. And I am not that person. You know, every time I just, for example, what was the one like? Was like, oh, I was long Novo Nordisk, you know, with the weight loss drug of me, So, you know. And I'm like, I'm a fucking genius. Like, I figured it out. Like, this drug is going to change the world. And I bought the highs.”
2022-09-15 · Forward Guidance · The Energy Trade Has Gone Too Far | Jared Dillian · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah. And so there's sentiment, which you're an expert in. I'd say that a foremost, a world expert on sentiment. And then you look at technicals, those are sort of the two things that you look on. You look at fundamentals and macro, but like less so. I would say on a fundamental case, it seems to me that at least for natural gas, like the case is kind of bullish. If it's $8 over here and it's $50 over here, you know. I wouldn't short the $8 one, you know, and I wouldn't short companies that are making it at $2.”
2022-09-15 · Forward Guidance · The Energy Trade Has Gone Too Far | Jared Dillian · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, I mean, I do want to add a caveat. So, you know, oil is kind of bouncing along trendline support actually as we're recording this today. It's actually bouncing a little bit today. Like it could bounce off a trend line support, but. It's not going to get back up to 120 with this many people bullish.”
2022-09-15 · Forward Guidance · The Energy Trade Has Gone Too Far | Jared Dillian · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So, you're saying it's sentiment and then technicals, and then when both sort of smell bad, that's a really signal to get bearish. So for example, to answer my own question, in December of 2020, the sentiment was bullish, so that might have been a contrarian sentiment signal to not be bullish, but the chart looked amazing because it was exploding higher day after day. You're saying now an energy sentiment is way too bullish and the chart looks bad.”
2022-09-15 · Forward Guidance · The Energy Trade Has Gone Too Far | Jared Dillian · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So, really, my process is it's not strictly sentiment. I also do some chart work, right? So the sentiment kind of gets me in the neighborhood, okay? Bullish, bearish, you know, within a couple of weeks, a month, something like that. And that's when I start doing technical analysis to get more scientific about where the actual turning point is. Like when I bought puts on XLE, I was one day early. I missed it by a day. So I can get pretty scientific about it. But, you know, it's not, it's, and sometimes, you know, sometimes the cinnamon actually works to the day like an economist cover or something like that. Like you get an economist cover.”
2022-09-15 · Forward Guidance · The Energy Trade Has Gone Too Far | Jared Dillian · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yes, I think that it depends on how you gauge gauges. So I think you were very good at gauging sentiment as well as extracting meaning from it. And in some cases, sort of signals from it. I definitely think it's a skill. And just like you could having never even thought about sentiment, you could sort of instinctually quote do it. But just because you can do it doesn't mean you can do it well. So I definitely would caution people from like making big size trades based on how they feel about how other people feel just because people like you do it well doesn't mean that you know it could it could be done done poorly but there are instances when people are hyper bullish on an asset and then it goes up or hyper bearish on an asset and it goes down like you know in december of 2020 uh people were you know one could say if i was trying to take a contrarian sentiment view i'd say everyone is super bullish like i'm going to short bitcoin but that wouldn't have ended out great”
2022-09-15 · Forward Guidance · The Energy Trade Has Gone Too Far | Jared Dillian · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I'm like, actually, it's not like it actually, if you backtest that over time, like it works pretty well. But like people need something to latch on to. And, you know, sentiment trading really is about faith. Like in the face of all the evidence to the contrary, that this stock, this bond, this market is going to go up, like that's how it works.”
2022-09-15 · Forward Guidance · The Energy Trade Has Gone Too Far | Jared Dillian · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“They need evidence. They need evidence. And they're uncomfortable with faith, right? So you just ask me, what are my reasons for being bullish? I'm like, I don't have any fucking reasons. Like I'm bullish because everybody else is bearish. And then people say, well, that's a stupid reason.”
2022-09-15 · Forward Guidance · The Energy Trade Has Gone Too Far | Jared Dillian · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Uh, It's hard to be bearish when sentiment is this bad. You know what I mean? Like this is This is the thing. This is a position I find myself in all the time. Like if you look around European energy, China, war in Ukraine, right? There's all these reasons for the market to go down. There's really no reason for it to go up. Those are usually the situations where the market goes up. You know what I mean? When there's absolutely no reason for it to go up. That's usually when it goes up and vice versa. Like, you know, at the top of a bull market. I mean, we were there in January of 2021. There was absolutely no reason for the market to go down. So, you know, this is why, you know, trading sentiment like people, like people need.”
2022-09-15 · Forward Guidance · The Energy Trade Has Gone Too Far | Jared Dillian · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yes, I spoke recently to Andy Khan as well as Joseph Wang, and he made that exact point that it is the flow of the Fed's balance sheet, not the flow of assets onto or out from the Fed's balance sheet, not the absolute size of the Fed's balance. Like you, I'm bewildered as to why that's the case. But yeah, I think that is like, in other words, a $10 trillion balance sheet that is decreasing is bad for liquidity, whereas a $1 trillion balance sheet that is increasing can be good for liquidity. So it's not about the absolute level, but the rate of change. So yeah, so if quantitative tightening is so bad and now we're doing almost double what QT was before when you were referencing, why how come you're not more bearish?”
2022-09-15 · Forward Guidance · The Energy Trade Has Gone Too Far | Jared Dillian · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So, when people talk about quantitative tightening, you know, the Fed's balance sheet is eight, nine trillion. We're doing 92 billion a month in quantitative tightening. Like, what is that? That's like nothing. It's just a tiny percentage of the Fed's assets. And it has an enormous effect on markets. And I've never, that's something like as an analyst, like I've never understood. Like back in 2017, 2018, when we were doing just a tiny amount of quantitative tightening, like it had a huge effect on stocks, it had a huge effect on everything. I really find that to be amazing.”
2022-09-15 · Forward Guidance · The Energy Trade Has Gone Too Far | Jared Dillian · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Absolutely. Yeah I mean, like just J Powell went on 60 minutes and said that he did. You know what I mean? Like, it's just not. It's not controversial”
2022-09-15 · Forward Guidance · The Energy Trade Has Gone Too Far | Jared Dillian · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I mean, it does take a while to learn because it can be confusing. But we all know someone who says the Fed prints money, someone who says the Fed doesn't print money, it's possible for both of those people to have a correct understanding of what actually happens, but they're just using different words. So do you think the Fed prints money?”
2022-09-15 · Forward Guidance · The Energy Trade Has Gone Too Far | Jared Dillian · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yes. And folks who loath the Fed because they think that they made rich people richer because of QE and that did not stimulate any growth whatsoever. Those people should be aware that the Federal Reserve now is trying to do the exact opposite. They're not printing money to inflate assets. They are burning money in order to decrease the price level of assets to have a reverse wealth effect instead of a wealth effect. And for folks who object to my terms of printing money instead of and burning money instead of bank reserves, well, you know.”
2022-09-15 · Forward Guidance · The Energy Trade Has Gone Too Far | Jared Dillian · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Well, you know, I mean, if you read my newsletter in 2020, probably at the end of 2020, you know, you had an inflation picking up. And I said the Fed should hike rates. I think they should have started hiking back then. And I think they should have been done hiking by the end of 2021. Instead, they actually started hiking at the end of 2021. You know what I mean? So that's the mistake. And it's a very obvious mistake. People criticize the Fed all the time. It's very fashionable to criticize the Fed. And I think they just take a lot of abuse that's not warranted. They are nice people. Like they're trying their best. Like I firmly believe that they're good people. They're not evil. But, you know, the politics around... Monetary policy just causes things to get all screwed up, you know? So that's the problem.”
2022-09-15 · Forward Guidance · The Energy Trade Has Gone Too Far | Jared Dillian · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“No. I don't really have Not really. I mean, I do want to talk about the Fed a little bit. You know, I mean, we mentioned this earlier. I mean, you have to think about how insane it is that we're in a recession and the Fed is hiking. Like, that's insane, right? Like, usually what happens, what's supposed to happen is that you have an expansion and the economy grows and inflation starts to pick up, and then the Fed starts hiking and they continue to hike and then the economy goes into a recession and then they start cutting. They're actually doing it ass backwards. Like we're hiking in a recession, and what's going to happen is that we're going to come out of this and we're going to be in an expansion and then they're going to be cutting rates in an expansion. It's totally backwards.”
2022-09-15 · Forward Guidance · The Energy Trade Has Gone Too Far | Jared Dillian · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“In order for the Federal Reserve to cut rates, like, yes, they could only go to 4%, but it's going to, they're going to stay there until inflation is two and a half percent, maybe 3%. I don't know. And yeah, so maybe people think I'm a fool because I take the Federal Reserve at its own word, which definitely would not have been a good trading strategy over the past decade after the great financial crisis. But because the dot plot was always indicating they would hike rights, but they never did. But yeah, so sort of setting the Federal Reserve aside, so you're not bullish or bearish?”
2022-09-15 · Forward Guidance · The Energy Trade Has Gone Too Far | Jared Dillian · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, yeah, so I think the highest price into the Fed funds features is like 3.9, but it's going to be out there for a long time. But it is still pricing 50 basis points of cuts, so like an inverted curve. But yeah, I just think inflation has to get pretty damn close down to 2%.”
2022-09-15 · Forward Guidance · The Energy Trade Has Gone Too Far | Jared Dillian · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“They seem pretty willing to keep hiking rates for a while. You know what I mean? Yes. Like at first, we were thinking three and a half to four. Now we're kind of thinking four to four and a half. What's next? Four and a half to five. Like how far does this go? Like it's.”
2022-09-15 · Forward Guidance · The Energy Trade Has Gone Too Far | Jared Dillian · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I think we're kind of in a range, which isn't a very exciting thing to say, but I think the Fed has dictated the terms. We got the Fed put around $3,600 in the S&P. That's when Bostic said we might have a pause. And the market rallied 700 points. And then you got the Fed call at 4,300 where the Fed decided this is kind of stupid that stocks are rallying while we're hiking rates. So they cranked it down further. So I think that's kind of where we are. I think we're between 3,600 and 4,300. And it's going to stay that way until the Fed actually does pause. The only thing that worries me is that I really am not...”
2022-09-15 · Forward Guidance · The Energy Trade Has Gone Too Far | Jared Dillian · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yes. And yeah, lending standards are higher. So when people buy a house, they put more money down and their credit quality is higher. So they don't have a incentive, they have incentive to stay in the home, unlike in 2007 and 2008, when people literally wouldn't even move into their house because by the time they had bought it, they had already defaulted on it, essentially Jared, what do you think about stocks generally?”
2022-09-15 · Forward Guidance · The Energy Trade Has Gone Too Far | Jared Dillian · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Of that is recency bias. You know, people just say, we just experienced this 14 years ago, so it's fresh in people's minds. So people think it's going to happen again. You know, absolutely not.”
2022-09-15 · Forward Guidance · The Energy Trade Has Gone Too Far | Jared Dillian · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Like people have so much equity in their homes, like 40% of homes in the US are owned free and clear. There's no leverage in the system. Underwriting standards are great. You cannot have a financial crisis without leverage in the system. You know what I mean? Prices can't come down. You can have bear markets in assets where there's no leverage, but it's going to be a correction, and that's it”
2022-09-15 · Forward Guidance · The Energy Trade Has Gone Too Far | Jared Dillian · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Oh my God. Yeah. You just need to step away from the keyboard. It's really going to be okay. And, you know, I don't know if you had housing, you want to talk about housing today, but this is another example of it. Like everybody is massively bearish on housing. You know, there's a lot of housing threads and stuff going around, a lot of housing doom porn. You know, it's funny because I'm actually talking to a couple of real estate agents. We're selling our house in about a year. And they show up at my house and they're like, we've been reading a lot of stuff about the housing market lately. What do you think? And like everybody's predicting like another financial crisis, it's not going to happen.”
2022-09-15 · Forward Guidance · The Energy Trade Has Gone Too Far | Jared Dillian · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“But here's the thing, right? I'm not saying I'm right all the time. Like, I'm not an egomaniac or anything. But what I often find myself in the position where I'm battling against a prevailing narrative, you know, and it's a very lonely position to be in. And the reason I'm in those positions is because I'm a sentiment trader and I observe sentiment and I observe when sentiment gets too crowded. So basically I'm always in a position where I'm pushing back against the crowd. And that gets me, that is a suboptimal strategy. If I were to write a newsletter and really, if I really wanted to make a lot of money, what I would do is I would be a mirror of the mood of the market. So I would be a mood mirror, right? So, you know, Bitcoin is at $18,000. I would say Bitcoin sucks. It's going lower, whatever. And I'm just reflecting the mood back.”
2022-09-15 · Forward Guidance · The Energy Trade Has Gone Too Far | Jared Dillian · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“They are indefatigable. I mean, look, at some point you admit defeat, you curl up into a ball and you die. That's what happened to the Bitcoin folks. You know what I mean? All the have fun staying poor and all that stuff. It just went away. So that'll happen at some point.”
2022-09-15 · Forward Guidance · The Energy Trade Has Gone Too Far | Jared Dillian · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Okay, okay. So, yeah, you're not calling for like $50, $40 oil. Yeah, 60 to 80. Okay. So let's say the price of oil is $65 in December. I love oil at ILove Oil on Twitter accounts. What do you think they're going to be saying? And how will you be reacting to it?”
2022-09-15 · Forward Guidance · The Energy Trade Has Gone Too Far | Jared Dillian · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, I mean, I've heard that argument a bunch of times you can't print oil. It doesn't mean that Europe is in checkmate. In 2011 is a good example. Because I was still doing the newsletter back then. I was on year three. And this was, Twitter was still pretty new, but there was still this macro doom that was going around that Europe is going bankrupt and the euro is going to split apart. We're going to go back to a scootos and drachmas and, you know, just the euro, the euro was going to disappear. Never happened. You know what I mean? Like they changed the rules. Like, that's always what happens in times of stress. They change the rules. This is more difficult, like, but there are solutions. You know what I mean? So, you know, the nightmare scenario is not going to happen.”
2022-09-15 · Forward Guidance · The Energy Trade Has Gone Too Far | Jared Dillian · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So I agree with you. I'm more sympathetic to your argument about economic financial doom, about, so in other words, financial stress within the economic financial system of the euro is going to collapse or sovereign euro spreads in Italy and Greece, they're going to widen out to 70 basis points. I think that, as you said, regulatory institutions, the European Central Bank, as they did in 2011, they will fix that. They can narrow those spreads with their balance sheet. They can narrow the spread between Italian yields and German boon yields with their balance sheet as they are doing. They are letting German boons roll off and they are buying net net Italian debt. And the yields are so far it's working kind of. And there really is no limit to doing that in the same way that the Fed did in 2020.”
2022-09-15 · Forward Guidance · The Energy Trade Has Gone Too Far | Jared Dillian · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“He's a very smart guy. He was a McKinsey consultant, and now he's a consultant at Accenture. And we talked about this European energy issue, and he basically said, you know, Germans are ready for it. They're ready for a cold winter, and they'll tough it out. They're mentally prepared for it. So, you know, the other thing you have to remember is that the distance from Germany to Ukraine is about the distance from Myrtle Beach to New York. Like, it's very close. So the Germans don't want Putin in their backyard. And like, There is some talk amongst these energy guys like these insane sanctions on Russia and German people like want to stop the same like I kind of get the opposite impression like I you know I think that they're on Ukraine side they're gonna be willing to tough this out”
2022-09-15 · Forward Guidance · The Energy Trade Has Gone Too Far | Jared Dillian · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT