YouSaid · the spoken record

Jason

lines on the record: 37
first: 2023-11-07
most recent: 2023-11-07
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

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“On my end, we'll be looking at the adoption curve, we'll be looking at insurance coverage, which should be a leading indicator of the adoption curve, as well as the supply constraints and hopefully the bottlenecks be removed. Secondly, we're going to be looking at a large body of research that I expect dozens of companies to begin to release because we have dozens of companies who are beginning to do research on this. Now, they'll all be guilty of some degree of selection bias in terms of what they choose to share. It's our job to sift through that. It's our job to collect all the data points and put it in a form of broader mosaic. And lastly, we'll be looking to do our own primary research on this through survey work, through MIDI and panel data to, again, put more pieces to complete the mosaics so we understand how this is evolving, what the shape and face of the consumer is who's on these drugs and how their behavior is changing so that we can understand the implications on first derivative markets like food and beverage, as well as second derivative markets like apparel, accessories, clothing, fitness industry. This is going to have a large ripple effect through the broader consumer ecosystem.”
2023-11-07 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · The $100 billion opportunity: How anti-obesity drugs are reshaping healthcare and consumer behavior · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So we'll be paying attention later in November at the detailed reporting of results from the first cardiovascular outcome study that came out on Wagovi. It was reported over the summer. Many of you may recognize when that moment were the stocks for Novo and Lily both jumped. We believe that details will matter. Positive top line results are compelling, but we'll be looking to see whether the benefit required patients to be on these drugs for a longer period of time and then innovation is unrelenting. We talked about the oral medicines that are coming. We'll be watching for the clinical data that will reveal the profiles and certainly anytime their success, this draws competition. There are other players in the market, some of them using adjacent mechanisms and some of them using combinations. We'll be watching for that next level of therapy that addresses, again, as I referred to as a heterogeneous patient population, the sheer number of people will be watching more opportunities for not a single”
2023-11-07 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · The $100 billion opportunity: How anti-obesity drugs are reshaping healthcare and consumer behavior · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Several levels will see an improvement. The company is Lillian Novo who are in the lead are investing significant amounts of capital in terms of just building up their infrastructure with hopes of being able to better address this level of demand. But your point, very importantly, references the fact that what's coming next in terms of treatment options are oral versions, not injected, but oral pills for which manufacturing”
2023-11-07 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · The $100 billion opportunity: How anti-obesity drugs are reshaping healthcare and consumer behavior · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, absolutely. I think some of the global companies, particularly some of the global snack food companies, are overdone. We didn't get into this, but you heard Chris talk about the supply constraints. The supply is really being directed at the US because it's the most profitable market for these companies. So if we're really talking about supply constraints very broad across the rest of the world, almost all supply coming to US will match that. I'm going to favor a food company who's got a global footprint, particularly in emerging markets. That hasn't been the case in how the markets priced this. So there are areas and opportunities where I think it's oversold and opportunity to take a contrarian view.”
2023-11-07 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · The $100 billion opportunity: How anti-obesity drugs are reshaping healthcare and consumer behavior · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“While the profile of these drugs, when we think about efficacy and safety, has seemed to meant the mark in terms of this moment of recognizing that the profile is about right for a broader population, it still is very necessary to make sure that you're providing product. These, again, are injectable drugs involves fairly complicated manufacturing processes, literally, as we call fill finish in finished syringe forms in very sophisticated delivery devices that manufacturing supply has been a constraint. And we've seen a pretty uneven initial two-year period of availability of WagoV. And we're being very mindful of that as a constraint given just on face value, there's tremendous demand, but the revenue trajectory that we're seeing near and intermediate term is really going to be gated by fundamentals like manufacturing the product.”
2023-11-07 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · The $100 billion opportunity: How anti-obesity drugs are reshaping healthcare and consumer behavior · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Talk to us a little bit more about that because ultimately this was an opportunity for companies that in some ways was missed because you hadn't seen supply being able to keep up with demand. Where are we in that?”
2023-11-07 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · The $100 billion opportunity: How anti-obesity drugs are reshaping healthcare and consumer behavior · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Overall, we do think that there's reasons for optimism, but there are some key toggles, upcoming events. As Jason had mentioned, this decision about whether the government through Medicare will cover these drugs is very important. Almost mission critical towards achieving the upper end and estimates that are above ours as well, again, broad coverage is extremely important, as is another factor to simply supply. Currently these drugs are manufactured injectable drugs. We haven't been able to see the companies meet the demand. We'll be watching that play out.”
2023-11-07 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · The $100 billion opportunity: How anti-obesity drugs are reshaping healthcare and consumer behavior · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“We are seeing significant value attribution. We refer to this as Megatem, in essence. It's the kind of scale and scope of opportunity that remains difficult to size specifically, but certainly appears to be on a very strong growth trajectory. And as we discussed, the opportunity for this to extend not just to overweight and obesity is leading to a very traditional driver for stock performance and valuation that cycle of upward revisions in terms of revenue growth and ultimate peak sales, as well as earnings potential for the leading players.”
2023-11-07 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · The $100 billion opportunity: How anti-obesity drugs are reshaping healthcare and consumer behavior · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Absolutely. I expect some companies to innovate, pushing more protein products. I expect other companies to look to address this with pack-size architecture. Specifically, things like portion control, small size. These are tools in the toolbox that the industry has deployed in the past. I expect them to deploy again. Carbonia Soft Drinks is a great example where they shrunk the cans. You can buy 12 ounce cans, you can buy 8 ounce cans. They're going to charge you more per ounce, but there's a demand for consumer out there. And also, one thing that was interesting that came out of our research, I mentioned some of the categories where consumption appeared to be falling with the cohort we analyzed. I mentioned some other categories that were growing. One area that was growing was mini muffins, which kind of stands out. Full-size muffins were shrinking. Yet consumers were looking for mini muffins. Again, supportive of the notion that we're suppressing appetite, we're not killing appetite, and we're also not killing the joy of eating for some consumers. So can they still get the flavors they're looking for, the foods they're looking for, but maybe in a smaller proper pack size, if you're a food company.”
2023-11-07 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · The $100 billion opportunity: How anti-obesity drugs are reshaping healthcare and consumer behavior · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“The companies right now, I would say, are in learning mode. They're doing research. They're trying to evaluate the situation, and they're in early innings of formulating strategies. So I do have some companies that are formulating communication strategies and saying, we've got products that are going to resonate with this consumer cohort. We want to make sure we're leaning in with those products. As I think about the forward, I'm going to expect more companies to look at the shape of their portfolio and say, do we have to build or buy products that are going to be more tailor-fit for this type of consumer? For example, I mentioned more supplements, more protein-oriented foods. I would also look and expect them to evolve the more vulnerable areas of their portfolio to perhaps right-size what the product mix looks like there, to insulate themselves from risk.”
2023-11-07 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · The $100 billion opportunity: How anti-obesity drugs are reshaping healthcare and consumer behavior · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“You heard Chris talk about insurance coverage, an area that's going to be really important is whether or not we get Medicare and Medicaid coverage of these drugs in the future. And the probability of that still up in the future.”
2023-11-07 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · The $100 billion opportunity: How anti-obesity drugs are reshaping healthcare and consumer behavior · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“But you said yourself this is a very small sample, and we're assuming this is a sample at this point. If there is the broader adoption that Chris laid out, how do you think that could evolve in terms of consumer behavior?”
2023-11-07 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · The $100 billion opportunity: How anti-obesity drugs are reshaping healthcare and consumer behavior · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Hair growth serums saw a nice spike in growth. So I'm losing weight. I'm feeling good. I want to look good. I'm going to put some more makeup on. So in some areas it made sense. It gibed with common intuition. In some instances it does defy common hypotheses out there.”
2023-11-07 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · The $100 billion opportunity: How anti-obesity drugs are reshaping healthcare and consumer behavior · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“That's right. It's very counterintuitive. There are some things that are consistent with common intuition. We're also seeing growth in vitamins and minerals and supplements. We're seeing growth in protein shakes, growth in protein bars. These make sense. You're going to reduce your chloric intake. You want to make sure that you're still getting adequate vitamins. You want to make sure that you're not losing lean muscles. You're going to supplement one more protein. We also saw growth in categories. Where I would argue are about looking good. So beauty categories saw a nice spike in growth.”
2023-11-07 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · The $100 billion opportunity: How anti-obesity drugs are reshaping healthcare and consumer behavior · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Maybe it doesn't have the same appetite in the morning, skipping a breakfast occasion. And maybe a consumer who's been trying to already manage their weight by consuming more salads and weight loss bars. That looks like it's the early adopter of these drugs, and that's where we're seeing the impact right now in this small sample size of consumers, which again is not large enough to impact the industry at large. But when we zoom in, that's where we see behavioral change.”
2023-11-07 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · The $100 billion opportunity: How anti-obesity drugs are reshaping healthcare and consumer behavior · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Who's been battling weight loss on a regular already? So we've seen some categories and some of the profiling we've done. And by the way, I should caveat this. The profile we've done is looking at people who are buying medications known to alleviate the side effects of this medication. We then made a leap and said the people who are driving a spike and the drugs in particular are anti-nause, anti-diarrhea, the people who are driving that spike may be the GLP1 consumer. Look at their behavior, we're seeing a reduction in weight loss bars. We're seeing a reduction in breakfast foods. We're seeing a reduction in salad dressings. I step back and say profile What does this mean? This looks to me like a consumer who's.”
2023-11-07 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · The $100 billion opportunity: How anti-obesity drugs are reshaping healthcare and consumer behavior · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Put a really important caveat out there of early read, and this is a very early read. This is nascent right now, and a lot's going to change between now and three years and five years from now. But the research we've done so far doesn't suggest that the consumer who's getting on these drugs is the same consumer who's pounding beers and peanut butter cups on a daily basis. In fact, the early research suggests that this may be more of a middle-aged woman with children in their household.”
2023-11-07 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · The $100 billion opportunity: How anti-obesity drugs are reshaping healthcare and consumer behavior · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So, a lot of people seem to think that the sectors that are going to be hit by this are junk food and some obvious categories that you wouldn't want to be consuming as someone who's conscious about their weight. Do you think that's the case or what's your early read on what sectors will be most harmed by this and then which ones could benefit?”
2023-11-07 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · The $100 billion opportunity: How anti-obesity drugs are reshaping healthcare and consumer behavior · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“As we think about the forward, there can be multiple implications in terms of the impact on consumer behavior. The first and foremost is on the industry you touched on, food and beverage companies. What do these drugs do? They shrink appetite. They shrink caloric consumption was what results in the weight loss. The studies that Nova has had out there and there's some of their clinical research I think have yielded a 25 to 30 percent reduction in caloric intake for consumers on these drugs. If we scale the adoption in line with the forecast that Chris has to somewhere around 14 or 15 million consumers taking these drugs in seven or eight years from now, we're talking about an aggregate destruction of 2 to 3% of caloric intake in the US. That may not sound like a big number, but when you're looking at an industry that grows at most 50 basis points per year volumetrically, we're talking about six or seven years worth of industry growth erased in a scenario such as that.”
2023-11-07 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · The $100 billion opportunity: How anti-obesity drugs are reshaping healthcare and consumer behavior · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“The short answer is no, Allison. It's just too early and it's just too small. We estimate that there's somewhere between one to two million consumers taking these drugs for weight loss today. That's less than 1% of the U.S. adult population. That's just not meaningful enough to have a real dent on demand for these industries, yet at least today.”
2023-11-07 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · The $100 billion opportunity: How anti-obesity drugs are reshaping healthcare and consumer behavior · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Your question poses a very familiar aspect of human nature. Unfortunately, we actually don't. I think, and we think about many therapies to address very serious conditions, the ability to stay on these drugs is not impressive, for instance, for high cholesterol. A year later, only 50% of people who had a very significant event, such as a heart attack, are still not able to take those medicines. Now, with these drugs, there is a positive reinforcement in terms of physical appearance, the number on the scale, and even ways that people feel. So there is incremental optimism on that ability of people to stay on these medicines, but time will tell.”
2023-11-07 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · The $100 billion opportunity: How anti-obesity drugs are reshaping healthcare and consumer behavior · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And if you look at the behavior of what we actually know of people, there are some drugs that are currently being prescribed for a lifetime. We think about some blood pressure drugs, for example, cholesterol drugs. Do we see a good track record of those type of lifetime drugs being maintained by individuals?”
2023-11-07 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · The $100 billion opportunity: How anti-obesity drugs are reshaping healthcare and consumer behavior · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“That's a very important question and true and is really foundational. It was 2013 that the American Medical Association declared obesity and oval rate as a chronic disease. And these treatments, they are not cures. And also, if you think about it, the population are not a monolith. They're very heterogeneous. And when you think about solutions, it's very hard to think that a single drug or treatment is also going to be a solution. Therefore, I think we do recognize that the way these drugs work, you do have to continue to take them to lose and to maintain that weight loss and to a significant extent. It is being recognized that this is just one part of the overall armamentarium of addressing overweight and obesity for the period of a patient going forward or a person going forward so that we don't see the all too familiar short term, but not sustainable solution.”
2023-11-07 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · The $100 billion opportunity: How anti-obesity drugs are reshaping healthcare and consumer behavior · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Chris, from my understanding, these drugs are only effective as long as you're actually taking them. So some people are potentially looking at a lifetime of being on these drugs. How realistic is that really?”
2023-11-07 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · The $100 billion opportunity: How anti-obesity drugs are reshaping healthcare and consumer behavior · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“There are multiple ongoing studies looking across a spectrum of related conditions, even obstructive sleep apnea or OSA, for which there's a clear association and known medical risks. All of these ongoing studies, which are going to read out over the next few years, are meant to create, in essence, a wall of evidence to further compel insurance companies into the argument that it makes good pharmacoeconomic sense for them to provide coverage for these anti-obesity medications.”
2023-11-07 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · The $100 billion opportunity: How anti-obesity drugs are reshaping healthcare and consumer behavior · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, we are seeing some progress. If we quote Novo Nordisk, one of the leading companies in the manufacturer of Waigovi, they talk about an increase from roughly 50-60% of insurance companies providing some form of coverage now. There is details that matter in terms of whether or not it'll be an automatic or, as we know, many different forms in which maybe people have to be on weight loss regimens.”
2023-11-07 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · The $100 billion opportunity: How anti-obesity drugs are reshaping healthcare and consumer behavior · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Right. These drugs are prescription medications. And currently, when you think about the price tags for these medications, the GLP1s for diabetes, and if you look at the approved drug Wagovi, it's roughly on the diabetes side, just under $1,000 per month. This is a meaningful price tag. And if we think about adults who have potential eligibility, we estimate that little over half, maybe 60% will have some form of private insurance. But there's a very significant number of folks who, older than the age of 65, would be eligible and qualified for Medicare and Medicaid. However, they do not have official coverage of anti-obesity medications through the Medicare program. So private insurance is a very significant component of this decision of whether the revenues will achieve those levels. And that's a journey of getting the insurance companies to agree to cover these drugs.”
2023-11-07 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · The $100 billion opportunity: How anti-obesity drugs are reshaping healthcare and consumer behavior · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Well, these drugs are not cheap, so let's start there because I think a lot of the usage will come down to the cost and whether or not these drugs are covered by insurance. So talk to us a little bit about the insurance coverage at this point and how you think it might evolve.”
2023-11-07 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · The $100 billion opportunity: How anti-obesity drugs are reshaping healthcare and consumer behavior · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Eligible and will actually take these medicines. And there's various push pulls and gating factors which can influence whether we have a number that is 100 billion, less, or even potentially considerably more.”
2023-11-07 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · The $100 billion opportunity: How anti-obesity drugs are reshaping healthcare and consumer behavior · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, that is a number that we pegged as an estimate of the global market by the year 2030. And it starts really by just the significant number of people worldwide, but in particular as well in the US that suffer from obesity and overweight. We quote data from the World Health Organization and the Center for Disease Control. You can estimate roughly about 100 or 105 million U.S. adults that have the qualifications to enable them to take these medications. We use a measure body mass index or BMI. We think about measures of BMI of 30 and higher, or 27 and higher if you have other comorbidities. And that number has been significantly on the rise and is expected to continue to increase as we think about the balance of this decade. So it does start with that large patient number and then it continues as we estimate what portion of these people will be”
2023-11-07 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · The $100 billion opportunity: How anti-obesity drugs are reshaping healthcare and consumer behavior · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Right profile is essential. Efficacy and safety, we have that broad level of many years of experience of these GOP-1s in the diabetes population. And now you further amplify that with the impact of broader awareness or certainly living in an era right now where social media has been able to really significantly amplify the experience and the level of awareness across a very broad swath of the population about these drugs. And again, if you're addressing something as foundational, as treatments to address overweight and obesity, you're certainly going to be able to draw a lot of attention.”
2023-11-07 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · The $100 billion opportunity: How anti-obesity drugs are reshaping healthcare and consumer behavior · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, so the GLP ones just on a very fundamental basis. These drugs mimic the action of naturally occurring hormone called glucagon-like peptide one. We know that when blood sugar levels start to rise, someone eats, the drugs will stimulate the body to produce more insulin. And it's that extra insulin that will help maintain blood sugar levels, as you see in diabetics. But there are other impacts biologically that these drugs have, including on the GI system. We know that this slows the rate at which food passes through the stomach and into the intestines, generates that sense of satiety and also their effects on the brain as well, which are thought to influence things like the reward center and promote feelings of society in combination, all of these are clear factors which contribute to the efficacy profile of these drugs in the treatment of overweight and obesity.”
2023-11-07 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · The $100 billion opportunity: How anti-obesity drugs are reshaping healthcare and consumer behavior · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Available in the general broad population, recognized to be a cause of very serious heart malfunctions and defects. And therefore, as a result, the drug was pulled from the market and the source of significant class action lawsuits for its manufacturer Wyatt. There have been other instances as well”
2023-11-07 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · The $100 billion opportunity: How anti-obesity drugs are reshaping healthcare and consumer behavior · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“The breakthrough is once again that combination of efficacy and safety. If you go back into the history of drugs, the percentage weight loss has not been as meaningful as the current generation, generally less than ten percent when these drugs are studied in clinical trials, usually for about a period of about a year. It's only more recently that these kind of next generation level of drugs are getting you 15 and up to 20% or more percentage of weight loss. I think the opportunity to develop safe and effective therapeutics is truly one of the holy grails for the industry. And we've seen over the last couple of decades that certainly there have been instances of drugs that have gotten all the way to the market with FDA approval, but then been stymied by Achilles heel of safety issues. Many of you may recall drugs such as fenfen, which became effective and approved but then fairly rapidly once it was available.”
2023-11-07 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · The $100 billion opportunity: How anti-obesity drugs are reshaping healthcare and consumer behavior · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“This phenomenon of trying to develop ways for people to manage their weight in chronic overweight and obesity has really been going on for a very long time. I think this moment is happening because we're having the convergence of several factors, including FDA approved drugs specifically labeled to address this condition. And we have a backdrop of experience with the category of drugs that is giving enough reassurance that these drugs are safe enough to be broadly used across the considerable population”
2023-11-07 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · The $100 billion opportunity: How anti-obesity drugs are reshaping healthcare and consumer behavior · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Let's start with some context. The class of drugs known as GLP1s, and that includes Wagovi, Manjaro, Ozempek, we're hearing about all of these names right now. They seem to burst onto the scene as a way to treat obesity, which we all know is a big problem in the US. But more recently, these drugs seem to have captured the public's attention and are gaining wider adoption, not just as obesity drugs, but as a way to just generally lose weight and improve health for those who aren't obese. Chris, why is this happening and why is it happening now?”
2023-11-07 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · The $100 billion opportunity: How anti-obesity drugs are reshaping healthcare and consumer behavior · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Breakthrough is that combination of efficacy and safety. We're certainly living in an era right now where social media has been able to really significantly amplify the experience and the level of awareness across a very broad swath of the population about these drugs. And again, if you're addressing something as foundational as treatments to address overweight and obesity, you're certainly going to be able to draw a lot of attention.”
2023-11-07 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · The $100 billion opportunity: How anti-obesity drugs are reshaping healthcare and consumer behavior · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT