YouSaid · the spoken record

Jason Zweig

lines on the record: 96
first: 2015-09-11
most recent: 2015-09-11
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

Every line below is reproduced as it was said and linked to the record it came from. Nothing here is summarised or generated. Directory · Search · Corrections

“It's a speech I gave at the Morningstar Investment Conference in. 2001, I think, where I sort of talked about, I guess, what would I say, a few risks that Materialized later I thought the financial advisor community was dangerously overlooking.”
2015-09-11 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Jason Zweig: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Right, and I think the other thing he was driving at is that in order to learn those few true things that are at the core of everything, you have to learn an enormous amount about them. And I guess the thing I most wish I had known at the beginning was... Where all this would come out, which is that ultimately success as an investor depends on one thing. It really only depends on one thing, self-control. And when Benjamin Graham said, The investor's worst enemy is himself. He wasn't kidding. And in a lot of ways, the entire book, The Intelligent Investor Boils Down to that one sentence. And great investors have self-control. And everyone else... Can't be a great investor if you don't have self control, you don't belong in the game, or you're not going to prevail at least.”
2015-09-11 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Jason Zweig: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, my dad, who was a very wise man, had a wonderful expression, which was that And I think I remember this verbatim. It's remarkable how much you have to learn about something. In order Discover how little you need to know about it.”
2015-09-11 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Jason Zweig: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And then I would call that person up because in those days you had to call. And I would say, I want to buy you breakfast, lunch, dinner, drinks. And then I would just download from the person's brain. And then I learned something I didn't know before.”
2015-09-11 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Jason Zweig: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, I would, first of all, I guess the first advice I would give you is to make sure you're in the right field. There are a lot of smart people who would tell you you're crazy for trying to be a financial journalist right now, and you might want to listen to them. They could be right. The second thing is Arrive earlier and leave later than everybody else every day. Find the smartest people you can possibly find and learn everything you can from them. Ask everyone, what do you read? Whom do you admire? Who's the smartest person you know? You know, when I started at Forbes in 1987, every day I would read the Wall Street Journal and I would circle in red pen every quote from somebody who knew more about whatever it was than I did”
2015-09-11 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Jason Zweig: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And try to be followed by people, you don't agree with. People you think are wrong, but you think they're intelligently wrong.”
2015-09-11 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Jason Zweig: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And I think there's one other tip, Barry, and I know you do this, and I work very hard at it, which is you really want to use a service like Twitter to feed yourself as much disconfirmation as you can. You really want to follow people.”
2015-09-11 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Jason Zweig: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“You have to approach Twitter very, very deliberately and intelligently to make it work for you instead of against you. And I think the time is coming when there will be platforms or applications that will intelligently filter material for people and do a real service. I don't think we're there yet. And I don't know what it's going to look like, but I know it's coming. And I hope it comes soon.”
2015-09-11 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Jason Zweig: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“You know, fairly early in my career, I was lucky enough to get to know a bunch of really great wise people, Sir John Templeton. Phil Carray, Irving Kahn, these were all people who had lived through the crash of 1929 and had really benefited from it and developed a sort of incredibly powerful long-term perspective. And I learned a lot from those guys and also from some other people I was lucky to spend time with when it was easier to spend time with them. Michael Price, Bill Miller. Folks like that who've gone on to fame and fortune and in some cases some Some misfortune as well.”
2015-09-11 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Jason Zweig: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It's not. It's not. It'll never go out of style. Where are the customers' yachts by Fred Schwade Jr., which was published in 1940?”
2015-09-11 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Jason Zweig: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yep. Or what do you care what other people think is another wonderful one? Those books are fabulous. Even for someone with no background in science, they can teach you a little bit. And that's critical. There's a wonderful little book called How to Lie with Statistics by Darryl Huff.”
2015-09-11 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Jason Zweig: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“There's a couple books I really love. I mean, we talked about Richard Feynman before. I think anybody can pick up any of the Oral history books”
2015-09-11 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Jason Zweig: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And I never forgot it. And I know exactly what he meant by it, which was, you know, do your best not to give people advice you wouldn't take yourself.”
2015-09-11 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Jason Zweig: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I think I'm just going to mention one person out of all the people I could mention. My beloved editor at Forbes, Jim Michaels, who was the longtime editor of the magazine. Far and away, one of the most brilliant editors I or anyone else have ever encountered. And in 1992, when I was a young reporter at Forbes Jim, I decided that I would be the mutual funds editor. The one thing I remembered in the nick of time was that that had been his first major job when he came to the magazine in the 1950s. So I knew better than to show disappointment on my face at having been handed such a boring assignment. So I said to him, Do you have any advice for me? You did this job once. And he thought about it for a second and he looked at me and he sort of half-smiled. And he said, don't get anybody's blood on your hands.”
2015-09-11 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Jason Zweig: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And it isn't an interesting barrier that despite how badly reviled the legal profession is, almost as badly as financial journalism, when people are trying to figure out whether there's a conflict of interest at hand, they do call in lawyers because lawyers are better at evaluating that than most other professionals. Doctors are not good at it. People on Wall Street are not good at it. And a lot of financial journalists for that matter are not good at it.”
2015-09-11 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Jason Zweig: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“That is key. I mean, the biggest problem with the findings of behavioral economics is that most of the biases it identifies are unconscious. And by definition, you don't know you have this bias. So the single most powerful thing that you can do as an investor, or for that matter, a consumer of information or just an intelligent citizen is to use techniques to try to surface those biases in your own mind, at least make yourself aware of them.”
2015-09-11 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Jason Zweig: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, except he was wrong in the beginning when we decided it would take two years. When I said that he has a remarkable sense of his own limitations, that was one issue where I think he.”
2015-09-11 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Jason Zweig: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And so I worked on the project with him for two years until I had other things that were demanding my attention. But for those two years, it was pretty much a full-time job for me and for him, for that matter. And so at the end of those two years, he said, I'm about a third done, I think.”
2015-09-11 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Jason Zweig: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“On cognitive bias. In a book that is going to talk about the planning fallacy. But I want us to figure out together how long this is likely to take so that we know what we're in for. And so we had a long conversation and he has a method for de-biasing. The planning fallacy, and we went through it. We went through it perfectly. And at the end we concluded it should take a year and a half to two years.”
2015-09-11 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Jason Zweig: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Correct What is the base rate? Exactly. So, you know, so Danny says to me that first day, Of all people, I don't want to be the one who commits the planning fallacy. I don't want us to in a book on.”
2015-09-11 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Jason Zweig: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Of all the other people who've tried it. What's in the data? And so we don't look at the base rate. And Danny Kahneman is all about base rates. And so the wonderful line he gave me that I use all the time in my thinking and in my writing is he once said to me the single most important question is what is the base rate?”
2015-09-11 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Jason Zweig: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Flaw in human cognition, which is when we're faced with any challenge or any set of data, what we tend to do is we think in very narrow framing. So you and I are going to write this textbook. So we think about it and we talk to each other and you say, well, I'm good at this. And I say, well, you're good at it. I'm better. And we think about how qualified we are to do this, how excited we are about performing this task. And all we can really focus on is how we're going to do it better, faster, and more perfect. But we don't ask ourselves, what's the success rate of people who've tried this? There's a database.”
2015-09-11 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Jason Zweig: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Because by that time it's already so out of date. It was out of date. And so the first day Danny and I are working on the book, he says to me, I really want to avoid the planning fallacy. And by the way, I forgot, Barry Just to sort of take this the final turn, the reason the planning fallacy is relevant. Because it brings out a basic”
2015-09-11 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Jason Zweig: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Is that they finally did finish the textbook. It took either seven or nine years. I think there's a second correlate. I think I'm remembering this right, was never actually used.”
2015-09-11 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Jason Zweig: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And so then Danny says, oh, oh, okay. And what about the ones and how many of these teams would you say never completed it? And he said, oh, I guess 40 or 50%. And so the room goes dead silent. And so the corollary to this”
2015-09-11 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Jason Zweig: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“What was the average length of time it took them to complete the textbook? So the dean sort of pulles his chin for a while and everyone in the room is sort of shifting uneasily in their seats. And after a long pause, he says, well, I guess of those who completed. A similar project. I think it took on average about four years.”
2015-09-11 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Jason Zweig: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So one of them said, Oh, I mean, how could it take more than seven or eight months? Another one said, maybe a year. And somebody else said, I don't know, a year and a half or something. And Danny's just sitting there listening, puzzled, the same way I just described. And then so he turn, he gets a light bulb over his head, and he turns to the dean of education at the school they were affiliated with, the Hebrew University, and says to him, You know, Are you aware of other teams, other groups that have done similar projects like this one? And the dean says, Well, yeah, you know, now that you mention it And that didn't occur to me before because he was one of the people who had given this low estimate of 10 months or something like that. So Danny says, oh, so of those groups,”
2015-09-11 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Jason Zweig: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Very, very, very little. I only saw it once, which was the first day we worked physically together on the book in his apartment when he talked about the planning fallacy. which I know you're familiar with, Barry, but I'll explain it for our listeners. He likes to tell a famous story that's become famous about one of the first major projects that he undertook when he was a young psychologist on the rise. In Israel at the Hebrew University in Jerusalem, and he and some of his colleagues were working on rewriting the standard high school psychology textbook for students in Israel. And that's a big undertaking. Because it's basically a core part of the curriculum. You have to start the textbook from scratch. And so They asked each other, well, how long should this take?”
2015-09-11 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Jason Zweig: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Working with Danny was one of the great experiences of my life, certainly one of the great learning experiences. He's got a remarkable mind and he questions everything. And he has that wonderful ability that most of us lose in our intellectual lifetime of putting ourselves almost into the shoes of a child. And saying, just asking why Why is And he's often completely baffled by things that Everyone takes for granted as an accepted truth. And he just sort of scratches his head in front of it and says, well, why do people think that? And it's not that he's doubting it. He just genuinely doesn't know. And part of that is because he has the most perfectly calibrated sense of what he knows, I think, of anybody I've ever, certainly anybody I've ever worked with.”
2015-09-11 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Jason Zweig: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Here comes the banana. In this case, it was sugar water, but same idea. Here comes the banana. I'm going to get the banana. The banana is coming, and that's when the dopamine peaks. Then the monkey actually gets the banana, and he's like, oh, I got the banana. I've been wanting all along. And so that activity peaks, and then it drops. And I think that's why so often in the stock market, you see the price of, you see the company's stock price just And go parabolic when people are expecting a positive earnings surprise. The company is going to exceed analysts' expectations. Then the actual earnings come out and they're exactly what people thought they would be, just as good. And it goes down.”
2015-09-11 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Jason Zweig: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, in 1997 there was a fascinating study published in Science magazine, which, as many of our listeners know, is the preeminent journal of science in the US. And it looked at monkey brains, and they recorded from single neurons deep in the dopamine centers of the monkeys' brains how they responded. And essentially when the monkey receives an expected reward, The dopamine generation at the time the reward is received goes down. So the dopamine activity ramps up as the monkey recognizes the predictive cue”
2015-09-11 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Jason Zweig: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, yeah, I talked about this quite a bit in my earlier book, Your Money and Your Brain, and anticipation. Based on the research that's been done, I think is more of what I would call a hot state. than actually receiving a gain. So thinking about or imagining or contemplating the money you'll make if you turn out to be right is probably more, at least as rewarding as getting the money is.”
2015-09-11 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Jason Zweig: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I mean, you could spend 30,000 hours playing guitar, but if you're tone deaf and you don't know you stink, Nobody will tell you you stink, you'll never get good.”
2015-09-11 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Jason Zweig: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Everyone who's ever spent a lot of time plucking on a guitar would be Eric Clapton. And it's not really true because the second essential criterion, the other thing you have to have is good feedback.”
2015-09-11 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Jason Zweig: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, and, you know, there's, I think the other thing that makes all of this baffling is we, in daily life, we have a general belief, and it's been popularized as sort of the 10,000 hours rule.”
2015-09-11 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Jason Zweig: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It's career risk. And so if avoiding career risk steers you toward making timid or suboptimal decisions. You can't learn from normal feedback because the feedback you care about is am I increasing or decreasing my career risk?”
2015-09-11 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Jason Zweig: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Consequences for a lot of people are enormous. It depends how much skin you have in the game, right? How much of your reputation, your personal reputation is riding on the line. If you're an employee just a face in a crowd at a giant asset management firm, the consequences might not be all that great. The consequences for you aren't in being right or wrong. It's whether you're right or wrong relative to the crowd. And so you're not concerned with your absolute performance, whether what you did is right or wrong. You're concerned whether you're going to stand out for doing something different that might make you or the firm look foolish.”
2015-09-11 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Jason Zweig: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“That's what that's telling you. That's what it's telling you. So there is useful feedback in market prices, but it takes a long time to unfold, and you have to develop a real skill in interpreting the feedback. And a lot of people can't do that and the task at the same time. Manage the money or pick the particular securities.”
2015-09-11 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Jason Zweig: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Nor is it unambiguous. I mean, let's say you and I decide today Netflix is going up, so we buy Netflix. Well, on the next tick, Netflix goes up. So we're right. But the next ticket goes down. And now we're wrong. So we get up, we go to the bathroom, we come back. It's up. We're right. We go out for lunch. We come back. It's down. Now we're wrong. What is the feedback telling us? It's really noisy. The feedback is noise.”
2015-09-11 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Jason Zweig: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah. Other than that, it's just a game. So in a sport like professional tennis, feedback is extremely reliable and a very powerful way of learning from your mistakes. If you take it seriously and you practice, you will get good at it. You'll get a lot better. Financial markets are different. The feedback is not prompt.”
2015-09-11 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Jason Zweig: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And she knows that immediately. So the feedback is prompt and it's unambiguous. Secondly, every stroke matters. It's consequential. If you miss too many shots, you lose. And you lose millions of dollars in front of millions of people.”
2015-09-11 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Jason Zweig: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, think about it this way. Think of the quarterfinal match in the US Open between the Williams sisters, Venus and Serena are playing. Every stroke has three characteristics. The feedback of every stroke. So if Venus hits the ball, It's in or it's out.”
2015-09-11 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Jason Zweig: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I think there's many problems with Number. I think the first problem is that people are very poor at learning from their predictive errors, particularly when the consequences aren't high or the feedback is noisy.”
2015-09-11 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Jason Zweig: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“To do this, we see their action. We see what they did. So we know what happened, what neuroeconomics does is it says, these are the specific circuits in the brain that generated the behavior you've observed in your psychological experiments.”
2015-09-11 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Jason Zweig: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, and if you think about it, there's not much difference between the two. In a way, behavioral economics is telling you what minds do. And neuroeconomics is telling you what brains do We already can”
2015-09-11 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Jason Zweig: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, like a functional MRI, a PET scan, a CAT scan, it could also be various tools for monitoring brain waves or electromagnetic activity in the brain.”
2015-09-11 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Jason Zweig: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, it's really, I think it's a very simple distinction. I mean, neuroeconomics or neurofinance simply uses the tools and techniques of neuroscience to extend existing research and findings in psychology and economics. And by those tools and techniques, it's primarily methods of measuring brain activity.”
2015-09-11 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Jason Zweig: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Most of the time, it wasn't a lion. Most of the time, it was just the wind waving a patch of grass. But that one time it was a lion. If you overreacted, you survived. And you passed your genes on. And if you underreacted, you were lying food.”
2015-09-11 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Jason Zweig: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Everyone sort of comes with a default hair trigger mechanism. I mean, this example has been used so many times. It's almost dull at this point. But, you know, in evolutionary time, when our ancestors were evolving on the plains of the African savannah, if you thought you might see a lion and you overreacted to what you thought was the lion, well, you lived to pass your genes on. Right.”
2015-09-11 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Jason Zweig: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“More you trade, the less you learn. And it's a direct relationship. It's just if A, then B. If you get more news information, more updates, you will act on it because it will feel informative to you, even if it's just even if the news is just noise, you will feel you have to act on it because it seems like news.”
2015-09-11 · Masters in Business · An Interview With Jason Zweig: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source