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Jawad S. Mian

lines on the record: 80
first: 2023-07-21
most recent: 2023-07-21
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

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“The world is not the way to tell you it is. Classic opening line from the money game and I wish I knew that. The world is not the way they tell you it is.”
2023-07-21 · Masters in Business · Jawad S. Mian on Global Investment Research · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“The first thing The other thing I'd say also comes from Rumi, which is be with those who help your being. So surround yourself with good people.”
2023-07-21 · Masters in Business · Jawad S. Mian on Global Investment Research · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Rumi jumps to mind and he says, let the beauty of what you love be what you do. There are a thousand ways to kneel and kiss the ground.”
2023-07-21 · Masters in Business · Jawad S. Mian on Global Investment Research · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“As someone who has struggled with the imposter syndrome, I think what really helped me alongside was reading the book The War of Art by Stephen Pressfield. And he talks about turning pro. And so an amateur waits for inspiration. And then he goes into the room and starts writing, The Pro takes his craft seriously and shows up.”
2023-07-21 · Masters in Business · Jawad S. Mian on Global Investment Research · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“The Musnoe, the Muthnoe is the big sort of collection of poems that he's written would be the one. Reynold Nicholson has the best translation, in my opinion.”
2023-07-21 · Masters in Business · Jawad S. Mian on Global Investment Research · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I love everything written by Ralph Alder Emerson. CS Lewis, as well as Rumi, who I'm a big fan of what I'm reading more recently is actually something John Author has recommended. I was having a conversation with him and I was asking for advice on writing and the craft. And he suggested that the most influential person in his life was Professor Friedman from Columbia. And he's written a bunch of books. So I went and looked through his books. And the one that really appealed to me was letters to a young journalist. And I'm reading that and I'm fascinated because, again, I look at what I do as writing and I want to really improve that craft to be a creative thinker and looking at the world and observing things differently.”
2023-07-21 · Masters in Business · Jawad S. Mian on Global Investment Research · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And the universe opened its bath. And so he was influential and remains a very close friend. And I would say in the last five years, the most impact that I've had is from a coaching relationship. And I speak with my coach every week and she's indispensable to me.”
2023-07-21 · Masters in Business · Jawad S. Mian on Global Investment Research · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“The concept that resonated with me in the book was this idea of the personal legend. So I've spent my 20s dreaming that I'm going to unfold my personal legend. So for me, the 20s were spent learning and dreaming. I would say when I launched Ray Reflections, you know, the first five years, I was very lucky to meet someone called Steve Drobney out of Santa Monica, who runs Clock Tower Group. Every time I thought of quitting in the first few years because I couldn't figure out the business model, I wasn't making enough money. He was on the other side of the phone saying, just hang in there. A path would open up. And I remember his words. He said, okay, Jawahar, this will be your only job for the rest of your life. Be patient. And wise words. And I realized, you know what, actually surviving is succeeding.”
2023-07-21 · Masters in Business · Jawad S. Mian on Global Investment Research · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“In the 20s, I searched for a mentor and I couldn't find one, so I spent my 20s learning and dreaming in the book that got me to dream was The Alchemist, which I know you don't like.”
2023-07-21 · Masters in Business · Jawad S. Mian on Global Investment Research · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I don't know if you're familiar with the book, but it's basically a senior devil writing a letter to a junior devil talking about how to corrupt the patient, which is humans, and keep him away from the enemy, which is God. And even though people think that the fourth turning is the most important book of our time, I would say C.S. Lewis, the screw tape letters is the most important book of our time.”
2023-07-21 · Masters in Business · Jawad S. Mian on Global Investment Research · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Something that I really believe in. And so I would say if I have any downtime, I'm actually listening to a book as opposed to watching a movie or listening to music. And I'm a big audible fan, again, with young girls, it's more difficult to sit and pick up a book because they're jumping on you. So when you're driving, when you're cleaning or just going for a walk, you can listen to a book. And something that I listened to recently was screw tape letters by C.S. Lewis read by John Cleese, which is a masterpiece”
2023-07-21 · Masters in Business · Jawad S. Mian on Global Investment Research · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“But I find myself doing one of my goals last year, for example, Barry, was I want to work fewer hours and get more done. So that's when I started cutting out distractions. Again, deep work.”
2023-07-21 · Masters in Business · Jawad S. Mian on Global Investment Research · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“They watch cartoons, so we'll have a movie time every weekend with them. So they'll watch some children's movie. And I'm just present with them.”
2023-07-21 · Masters in Business · Jawad S. Mian on Global Investment Research · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Actually, don't get bored to feel the need to be entertained, so I actually don't listen to music or watch movies. I've got three young daughters. And I love spending time with them.”
2023-07-21 · Masters in Business · Jawad S. Mian on Global Investment Research · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So, the book is simply a collection of all those personal reflections that I've been writing since the beginning of the publication. So I didn't write a book separately. I held this conference in 2018 in the desert, and I was trying to think of a way to give a thoughtful gift. And this idea came about. So we just assembled all the reflections into a book that you can just order on Amazon. But back then, we just printed it and gifted it to all our clients. There's a lot of people would ask for it. Now I'm glad that it's just available for anybody to sort of pick it up or for me to keep gifting it. I'd much rather meet a client and instead of giving them a presentation about housing or this or that, just leave a copy of my book on the desk.”
2023-07-21 · Masters in Business · Jawad S. Mian on Global Investment Research · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So, I didn't write the book. What actually happened was, like I mentioned earlier, I wrote from the very beginning, from a very personal space. So at the end of every issue, there'd be a personal reflection. It could be my daughter being born, my grandmother dying, meeting a friend, reading a book, some travel experience. I'd always made sure I ended on a personal note. I realized when I started writing, there was a lot of reservations. Will I have something meaningful to say on a regular basis? And something Rumi said struck with me. And he said, words are just a pretext. What connects one person to another is their inner bond, not words. So I realized I want to write from a very personal space. I want to write from the heart.”
2023-07-21 · Masters in Business · Jawad S. Mian on Global Investment Research · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Perhaps, but again, it depends on what you're doing, right? So I certainly do that. I can't speak to other people, but I have the luxury of doing that because that's partly why I get to do what I do is because I can zoom out, I can disconnect to come back with certain reflective, deep, refreshing thoughts that will sort of help. Community, the client base in a particular way. But obviously, if you're macro PM, you can't disconnect. If you're a CIO of a pension fund, you're always thinking about your employees and your portfolio and the band sponsors. So I have a luxury, I think, Barry, to design my life set in a particular way that gives me an edge, maybe, that I appreciate that not everybody does.”
2023-07-21 · Masters in Business · Jawad S. Mian on Global Investment Research · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“That's fair. You don't know why you're trading into your stop trading. So, like, what is our underlying motivators? In the industry, a lot of people struggle with ego and identity. So what are your underlying motivators? Just getting to know who you are, why you're doing what you're doing, how do you become more flexible in your thinking, adaptable? I often say the biggest risk you need to manage is yourself. It's not a position. It's not what the Fed is saying. It's not a political event. It's yourself because you're going to react to a particular news story or a particular event, right? So the biggest risk you need to manage it yourself. So if you don't know yourself, it's pretty... Very difficult”
2023-07-21 · Masters in Business · Jawad S. Mian on Global Investment Research · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, just diving deeper into a person, right? Why do you care so much about investing? What is it doing for you? You know, like, for example, I think I've read somewhere recently or I heard that you don't know why you're drinking until you stop drinking.”
2023-07-21 · Masters in Business · Jawad S. Mian on Global Investment Research · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I think Awareness is important, right? What's the motivation? Why are you in this business? It's just asking a simple question why do you care so much about investing?”
2023-07-21 · Masters in Business · Jawad S. Mian on Global Investment Research · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Those views are also coming from people that I love and respect. And so that makes me think twice about my view and makes me go back and do more work on what am I missing and what are they getting right. And so that was my lesson. It forced me to think deeper and I've come back looking, you know, so focus on my focus on the labor market was partly as a function of me attending that dinner and hearing that from the community to make sure that what am I missing on the labor market, how can I get more robust in my analysis of the labor market? And I've come away thinking that actually, yeah, I still stand by my view that the labor market will remain tight, secular fashion, won't crack the way people expect. And now it's my job to share that with the community and get feedback. And so that's kind of how the process works, the research idea, discovery flywheel works.”
2023-07-21 · Masters in Business · Jawad S. Mian on Global Investment Research · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So it almost felt as though news here was infecting there in terms of the fact that it's inevitable or it's ever-present. It's almost like a foregone conclusion. That was something that was unexpected. But again, because”
2023-07-21 · Masters in Business · Jawad S. Mian on Global Investment Research · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I'll tell you what surprised me because the last dinner we did was in Singapore. I was surprised at the mono conversation time spent discussing the US economy and the consensus about a recession”
2023-07-21 · Masters in Business · Jawad S. Mian on Global Investment Research · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“In Miami checking out the city, the food scene. I love win-win walls. One of my favorite people is in Miami, Peter Toney, who I love to spend time with. So I feel like in every city I've got someone deep that I connect with or something about that place, a city that I'm dying to visit and host a dinner is actually Boston because of my love for Ralph Alder Emerson. I haven't visited. I just want to go and pay a tribute to him. And Khalid Jibran, actually, as well, who was living in Boston for a very long time.”
2023-07-21 · Masters in Business · Jawad S. Mian on Global Investment Research · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“After I'm not that opinionated. I don't have a strong judgment on cities and people. And so I go. And usually, again, I've got young children. So I'm usually going for like a day, three days. That's a lot of travel for a day or two, right? You know, so I'm just going, you know, meeting clients who are also friends and doing the dinner and coming back. So I'm not usually spending a lot of time.”
2023-07-21 · Masters in Business · Jawad S. Mian on Global Investment Research · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I'm not a foodie, so I can't say if it's the best food destination. It's certainly a city that I love. Especially from a macro community standpoint, like you've got everybody there walking distance, it's just fun. And I think what I've learned from my Singapore conversations, again, because it's east and west, good mixture is probably some of the best conversations I've had around the world”
2023-07-21 · Masters in Business · Jawad S. Mian on Global Investment Research · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And so every city actually has its own interesting Hong Kong dinners will be very China centric. Singapore is very pure macro because you've got a good Asian pulse, but you also have some funds there that are really plugged into what's happening in the US and Europe. The London dinners will be a mixture, still annoyed with Brexit and EU policy and other sort of interesting themes come up from there.”
2023-07-21 · Masters in Business · Jawad S. Mian on Global Investment Research · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I don't know, it's just part of the culture. The macro guys are very obsessed with. They're all here. Yeah. The one they're all here, but also pay very close attention to what the Fed is saying, what the Fed is doing, rates and effects matters a lot.”
2023-07-21 · Masters in Business · Jawad S. Mian on Global Investment Research · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Who can participate? You've caught it. You know, it's a really be very intimate. And it's not me pitching something. I'm more curious and just facilitating conversation, learning from everybody. And the last rule is no one leaves without a hug. So it's 10 people, usually CIOs, portfolio managers from different sort of hedge funds, long-only funds, family offices, pension CIOs. So it really varies again based on what I think is topical and interesting. Do those eight to ten times a year, and then we'll do breakfast, which are more easier to organize. And tongue in cheek, I call them the breakfast. The moderately interesting breakfast. Because again, it's early in the morning. You haven't had your coffee lack sleep. So just moderately interesting ideas are enough to share with each other.”
2023-07-21 · Masters in Business · Jawad S. Mian on Global Investment Research · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I feel like when people are thoughtful about what they want to come and share, it's more interesting than just rambling conversation. I make sure that we've got certain rules, no egos, no business cards, try to. Really set the tone. Well”
2023-07-21 · Masters in Business · Jawad S. Mian on Global Investment Research · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It could be a stock, it could be. I like that idea, something that they are interested in and they would like to share with the group. It could be a picture of your dog. I really don't care, but you have to become prepared.”
2023-07-21 · Masters in Business · Jawad S. Mian on Global Investment Research · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So we do about 10 dinners a year in different cities, and I travel according to what's happening in the world, so that's more timely and interesting from a conversational standpoint and benefits the whole community. Tongue in cheek. I call these dinners the most interesting dinner in the world. So, I really set expectations very high. I found the best gathering is about 10 people. Everybody's requested to bring a chart to discuss.”
2023-07-21 · Masters in Business · Jawad S. Mian on Global Investment Research · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“The living market, the AI boom is coming at the right time where you can see wages, profits rising simultaneously, where inflation is relatively contained. Because even if wages are growing at 4%, 4.5%, if productivity grows at 2%, your overall inflation picture is not that bad. Your labor costs aren't going to crush your margins. So I think the real possibility is one that the future is not stack flationary, but one of productivity-led growth, which is extremely bullish for nominal growth and equities.”
2023-07-21 · Masters in Business · Jawad S. Mian on Global Investment Research · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Productivity led growth. And this is a look back period that's important because when you think about debt ceiling, you think about 2011. When you think about the regional banking crisis, you think about 2008. You think about inflation, you think about 70s. But we don't have memory of anything that remotely resembles a productivity-led growth era. But that was the 1950s. So you could have secular tightness.”
2023-07-21 · Masters in Business · Jawad S. Mian on Global Investment Research · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“But the real upsides are going to come from productivity. And so I still think immigration is going to sort of do some improve from here, I should say, going forward on the labor side. And then... Still have record employment in the US, right? We've had the Prime Minister participation rate recover, we suddenly realizing that early retirements wasn't a thing. And people are coming back to the labor force. It's very difficult given this, which is why I'm saying that. I think we're going to actually have a secular tightness in the labor market. The concern amongst investors is that they fear stackflation. And I don't see a future that stagflationary. A stackflationary future would destroy your fixed income and equity portfolios, right? The future that I'm seeing is one of”
2023-07-21 · Masters in Business · Jawad S. Mian on Global Investment Research · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And so we're going to see that. So again, for me, it's like on the margin, what can happen in the future that will positively surprise and negatively surprise. But I think in a world right now where everybody's asking, it's so easy to think about what's wrong with the world barry. It's more difficult to think about what's right with the world. And usually when you ask that question, people shift in their seats because they're not used to thinking about what's right with the world. It's more difficult to point out oftentimes. But I think immigration is one of those trends that it's what's right with the world. Because if you look at just working age population growth in the US, it can be 60 basis points this decade.”
2023-07-21 · Masters in Business · Jawad S. Mian on Global Investment Research · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I mean, it's very difficult to quantify, but I think it's a trend, it's a structural trend globally, not just in the US. Even countries that were not historically very friendly to immigration realize from a demographic standpoint they need to open up.”
2023-07-21 · Masters in Business · Jawad S. Mian on Global Investment Research · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I think you're seeing improving immigration trends, not just in the US, but globally. And I think that's a structural theme that we should pay more attention to.”
2023-07-21 · Masters in Business · Jawad S. Mian on Global Investment Research · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“If you think about construction specifically, since the construction activity peaked in mid-2006, it took 18 months for unemployment in the construction industry to go up. Today, the order backlog is bigger. It's going to take more time. The labor shortage is worse because you've got early retirements and lower immigration. And so I would argue you can see the economy weaken, even the housing market weaken, without an increase in joblessness. Across the board. The only sector of the economy that overhired was tech. And that's where you're seeing layoffs. But if the construction unemployment doesn't pick up for the reasons that I've outlined, you've got auto demand that remains robust. They're not letting go of people. Manufacturing seems to be bottoming with ISM where it is right now. So who's actually going to let go of workers here?”
2023-07-21 · Masters in Business · Jawad S. Mian on Global Investment Research · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Job openings take years to recover. The pandemic was different because the disruption happened in labor supply. And on the demand side, we actually created a huge positive demand shock. It's complete reverse of what we've ever experienced. So, you've seen a positive demand shock when labor supply got hit. And now you're seeing a situation where you still have high job openings and the service sector, which comes up with 80% of jobs, is still looking to hire. So how are you going to see the unemployment rate go from 3.5% to 5% in that dynamic? Let me give you a specific examples. Last year, bad year for single family housing overall, you know, conditions were pretty poor for housing. Construction employment last year was a record. There's still a shortage of construction workers. Job openings in the construction industry today are twice what they were during the mid-2000s boom.”
2023-07-21 · Masters in Business · Jawad S. Mian on Global Investment Research · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It's interest rate sensitivity for the U.S. economy is historically low. So you can actually have 5% interest rates and the consumer doesn't stop because we're not fully adjusting for how strong the household finances are. But more important than that, based on, I think, more recent conversations, I would argue maybe we've already had a recession. And the only indicator that hasn't cracked yet is the labor market. And that's what everybody is sort of focused on now. And my view there is also sort of contentious because I don't expect the labor market to crack. I actually believe the labor market is in a secular tightness. Let me explain. In the past, recessions have basically destroyed demand. You've seen job losses in goods producing sectors, manufacturing, auto, construction.”
2023-07-21 · Masters in Business · Jawad S. Mian on Global Investment Research · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“That's the point of staying in the present. And I think the reason why we're not is the fact that I think rate sensitivity is historically low.”
2023-07-21 · Masters in Business · Jawad S. Mian on Global Investment Research · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Like buildings and the role ACs play in emissions and read retrofitting that. And there's a lot of companies sitting in Japan and Korea and Taiwan that are mid-cap engineering names that sort of benefit from that. Higher CapEx, like I mentioned, who benefits from that. And so what you realize as you look deeper and deeper into this, it's not so much a US-centric story. It's a much more global story. So you could argue you can see non-US markets begin to outperform.”
2023-07-21 · Masters in Business · Jawad S. Mian on Global Investment Research · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And so China's old growth model was one in which they increased production capacity in a lot of base metals because they wanted to create employment. That no longer makes sense. So for example, China became two-thirds of the global aluminum market. They're going to start to reduce capacity within that to reduce emissions because they're importing raw materials to produce that. So they're probably emitting 16 to 17 ton per carbon per ton compared to what, let's say, someone like Alcoa is doing two or three. And so you're going to see China rationalize its industry, its capacity in certain key-based metals, aluminum and steel amongst them. And I think you want to monitor what they're doing on their climate front to understand which commodities to be long, not across the board. And so certain commodities will do well as part of the energy transition. I think China EV story works. A lot of it is just retrofitting.”
2023-07-21 · Masters in Business · Jawad S. Mian on Global Investment Research · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“What I mean by that is that most likely no Western government will meet their climate targets. The Chinese will meet their climate targets because for them it's an existential issue. Air pollution is a crisis. What's the point of common prosperity if you're going to get sick?”
2023-07-21 · Masters in Business · Jawad S. Mian on Global Investment Research · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“The interesting thing with climate is there are multifaceted ways to play different sectors, different opportunities from a bottoms-up standpoint as well. And again, now it's become a global economic and political priority, it's become a solution for spending as opposed to a risk. You can see higher CapEx this decade. So that benefits certain sectors. I think the simplest expression would be the EV revolution in many ways. I think the China EV, I think BYD would be a key asset. Own this decade. I think that could be the simplest expression of what goes on. I think I don't believe in a commodity supercycle, but I do believe certain commodities will win. And the way to think about commodities is naturally as it relates to the energy transition. But more specifically, it's not related to China growth. It's related to China climate.”
2023-07-21 · Masters in Business · Jawad S. Mian on Global Investment Research · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“The Zaid Catchers of the 2000s was China's entrance into the World Trade Organization in June 2001. So suddenly you're going to have the buildout of the world's second largest economy. You want to belong EM in commodities. The zeitgeist of the 2010s was best articulated by Mark Andreessen in 2011 in a Wall Street Journal article, Software is Eating the World. So what you're seeing now is the unraveling of that zeitgeist. So 2021 was the peak of that zeitgeist. It was all about software and cloud. And the question is now, the software zeitgeist is over. What's the zeitgeist for this decade? And what we've been writing about and discussing in the community is that we believe climate is a zeitgeist for this decade. Now that climate change...”
2023-07-21 · Masters in Business · Jawad S. Mian on Global Investment Research · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“An opportunity, if you think about it, because in 1970, every decade something happens. So in 1970, in the 1970s, it was the 1971 breakdown of Bretton Woods. And that led to inflation and the goldable market. But 1980 onwards, you wanted to avoid gold. The zeitgeist of the 1980s was Japan's taking over the world. So you want to be long Japanese equities and Japanese real estate. It was Japanese management techniques that were being passed around. Your children were learning Japanese. Japanese were the villains in American movies. Japanese were buying real estate in New York. But 1989 onwards, that was a disaster. The zeitkest of the 1990s was the internet belonged NASDAQ, March 2000 onwards, stopped working. It's really interesting how they're literally a calendar decade, Barry.”
2023-07-21 · Masters in Business · Jawad S. Mian on Global Investment Research · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“From $32 to I think $16 or $18. In 2015, Carl Icon sold all his Netflix stake because it was too expensive. Netflix was the best performing stock last decade. He sold half his Apple stock in 2015. In 2015, Bill Gurley at Benchmark was saying Silicon Valley is in a bubble. So it's interesting to do this exercise the fact that it seems so obvious today that it wasn't obvious to hold on to these companies. It wasn't so obvious that America will be the investment destination that's going to matter. And so it's curious that I think we need to just remind ourselves of this, the fact that it isn't always easy. And what could we be missing right now in the present? I always say my job is not to predict the future. It's to see the present clearly.”
2023-07-21 · Masters in Business · Jawad S. Mian on Global Investment Research · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It is a difficult business to value, right? If you think about it, it seems so obvious now that we should be owning Microsoft and Apple and Amazon and Google and Facebook. So obvious. But I would argue 10 years ago, it wasn't so obvious. 10 years ago, you had the top economics, economists, investors in America writing a letter to the Fed in 2010 saying, hey, stop QE. You're going to create hyperinflation and debase the dollar. In 2011, you had the ceiling crisis, the credit rating got downgraded, the dollar was at a 50-year low. So you did not have policy or political leadership that was very inspiring. In 2012, Facebook went public. The IPO flopped.”
2023-07-21 · Masters in Business · Jawad S. Mian on Global Investment Research · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source