YouSaid · the spoken record

Jean-Claude Juncker

lines on the record: 13
first: 2020-07-24
most recent: 2020-07-24
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

Every line below is reproduced as it was said and linked to the record it came from. Nothing here is summarised or generated. Directory · Search · Corrections

“Where now Europe is assuming itself more, I would say, is leaving some political naivety or innocence, is becoming more aware of the need to think geopolitically. And I think this is a trend, but okay, let's see. Accidents may happen and there will be probably contradictory developments, but I continue to be confident in the process of European integration.”
2020-07-24 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Markets Update: Europe’s Fiscal Stimulus · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Now we have in Europe more instruments than we had before the crisis for its European stability mechanisms, the kind of European IMF. I mean, it would not be possible before the beginning not yet completed, unfortunately, the beginning of the banking union. So my point is the following. Sometimes we need a crisis to make progress. In fact, one of the so-called founding fathers of the European community, Jean Monnet, a Frenchman, he said, Europe is going to be made through crisis and there's successive responses to successive crisis. I'm afraid he's right or he was right. And so, and that's what is happening. So I continue to think my scenario is there will be progress, but it will still be incremental. But in times of crisis, most likely we'll see some further important steps. And I think we are in this moment in that situation also because of the global geopolitical situation.”
2020-07-24 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Markets Update: Europe’s Fiscal Stimulus · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“our commentators acknowledge. Now, having said that, we are also not going to have the federalization, the United States of Europe in foreseeable future. So it is something in between, incremental, fragmented, sometimes muddling through, sometimes extremely frustrating, time-consuming political capital consuming. That's the way it is. But probably it is the only way when you have 27 governments with different histories, different cultures. But we have to think counterfactually. Would it be better if there was not a union or if there was, I really believe that would not be the case. So my guess is this is a moment, a very critical moment for Europe and for the world, in fact, with this pandemic. I think as we have seen during the last financial crisis, at the end of the day, it took a lot of time. But look, the euro did not crumble.”
2020-07-24 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Markets Update: Europe’s Fiscal Stimulus · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“You know, once again, I think there are two mistakes we should avoid when we make an assessment about European Union. One is to bet on disintegration, as it was happening during the financial crisis. At that time, I was President of the European Commission, I can tell you. I remember well going to the G20, speaking with President Obama and the Chinese and the Japanese and all the others. And that was their question. Do you think the euro is going to survive? Is Greece going to leave the euro at that time the market sentiment, including some of the best economists, some of Nobel Prize of economy, was Greece, it's impossible. Greece will leave the euro. Greece is still in the euro and the euro is there and the euro in fact is the second global currency after the dollar. So I really believe that the resilience of the European Union and of euro is higher than most analysts.”
2020-07-24 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Markets Update: Europe’s Fiscal Stimulus · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“In financial markets have responded favorably to this recovery fund agreement with higher European equity prices, a stronger euro, lower sovereign bond spreads, but in fact much of this market reaction already occurred in the run-up to the summit, starting with the release of the Franco-German proposal and also the release of the European Commission project. So the market response to the news of the agreement was similar now when there was breaking news. They were similar in spirit but indeed smaller because the agreement had already been expected. That's reality. But if I may say, but if you now make a little bit of go back, you remember that some weeks or months before market sentiment to a large extent was about a possible sovereign debt crisis, including, by the way, denomination risks in Italy and so on. I think now these fears are certainly not top of mind.”
2020-07-24 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Markets Update: Europe’s Fiscal Stimulus · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Oh, in many ways, first of all, let's be frank and open about this European Union is not a federal state. There are some federalist elements in Europe, like the independence of the European Commission, the independence of the European Central Bank, the independence and supranational nature also of the European Court of Justice, and we have also a directly elected European Parliament, but it's not a federation, European Union. And if you want my opinion, it will not be in the foreseeable future, something in between a federal state and, let's say, a typical international organization.”
2020-07-24 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Markets Update: Europe’s Fiscal Stimulus · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“It's extremely difficult to understand the European Union. It's very difficult to read. European Union, by definition, is a compromising. It's always incremental. It's about 27 countries with very different, let's say, economic and financial cultures. And the difference are not just, let's say, between the Netherlands and Greece. Sometimes, and I know that from my own experience, it starts the difference between Germany and France. They have different financial cultures. But when France and Germany are together, and we saw this once again, and supported by European institutions in this case, European Commission, but also let's also not forget European Central Bank. European Central Bank has been pushing for more, let's say, fiscal activism to complement its monetary activism. When those countries, core countries, are aligned,”
2020-07-24 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Markets Update: Europe’s Fiscal Stimulus · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Today, between 2014 to 2020, and I can tell you these are the most difficult ever negotiations in the European Union. It's about money and about power. By the way, this time an important difference was Britain is no longer there. So that explains why this time it was not exactly the initial proposal of the Commission that was approved, no. In fact, initially there were more commitments in terms of grants and less in terms of loans. So the frugal countries, they obtained this concession, less grants and more loans. So the composition of the expenditure is different. And also they got some additional rebates, what they pay, generally speaking, to the budget. But that's the way the European Union is. And I'd like to explain this for those less familiar with European Union because, to be frank, it's not only outside Europe, also in Europe.”
2020-07-24 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Markets Update: Europe’s Fiscal Stimulus · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Look, in fact, I was expecting this outcome to be frank, and in fact, our teams that are covering this more direct at Goldman Sachs, they have said it will going to be very close to the initial proposal of the Commission, because that proposal was in fact supported clearly by France and Germany. And that makes a difference with the past, because this time Germany was not with the so-called free old countries, to be more precise, with the Netherlands, Austria, Denmark, and Sweden. And during the meeting, Finland was also sometimes joining this more, let's say, restrictive countries in terms of spending. Angela Merkel, I think she wants to live a strong legacy. She was clearly on the side of pushing for a more ambitious budget. And, you know, I was President of European Commission for two mandates. For 10 years, I remember well, I was negotiating the last budget, the budget that is still in place.”
2020-07-24 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Markets Update: Europe’s Fiscal Stimulus · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“By the European Union, 540 billion euros recently that were announced, some of them were loans from the European Investment Bank, some was, of course, possible loans from the European stability mechanism, and others are transfers made by the European Commission for a program to fight unemployment. So I think it's a robust program indeed, and in some ways it can be transformational.”
2020-07-24 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Markets Update: Europe’s Fiscal Stimulus · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Such a joint issuance of debt by the European Union as such, not by the member states, and the European Commission acting on behalf of the European Union. So, indeed, a very important and ambitious decision. It's not yet complete now. It has to be approved by the European Parliament, but I think that will basically be approved. And another point I'd like to underline is that all these interventions and all these transfers, they have to respect the conditionality of the programs, including what it's called European Green Deal. So mainly measures related to climate action, climate protection, and the digital revolution, and also what they call resilience. So in fact, it's a very significant program, a fiscal stimulus that, of course, has to consider adding to other measures that were already in”
2020-07-24 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Markets Update: Europe’s Fiscal Stimulus · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“As a response to the COVID crisis with a more, let's say, medium-term perspective, it's very important to note that of the 750 billion euros, 390 will be through grants. The rest will be loans. Grants, so transfers, let's be honest, we are not yet in the so-called fiscal unit, but this is a step. Some of the red lines are being broken. And one of the most important points for me in terms of another taboo that is broken is the idea of a joint debt. In fact, the conclusions are clear. The European Commission is going to borrow this 750 billion euros on the capital markets on behalf of the Union. And this is going to repayment will be until 2058. So we never had anything comparable at European Union level.”
2020-07-24 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Markets Update: Europe’s Fiscal Stimulus · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I think it's really a very ambitious and significant decision. Basically, there are two elements there. It's what they call next generation European Union. It's a recovery fund specifically targeting the pandemic, the COVID. But it was linked with the multi-annual budget, what in Europe they call the multi-financial framework. It's a seven years budget. And so the conditions for this plan have to be linked with conditions for the overall budget for the seven years. So the specific recovery plan, it's $750 billion, and the budget for the seven-year period is 1.82 trillion euros. So altogether that makes more than 2.1 trillion US dollars. So it's really ambitious, and I think it combines the need to act now.”
2020-07-24 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Markets Update: Europe’s Fiscal Stimulus · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT