YouSaid · the spoken record

Jeff deGraaf

lines on the record: 88
first: 2016-05-20
most recent: 2016-05-20
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

Every line below is reproduced as it was said and linked to the record it came from. Nothing here is summarised or generated. Directory · Search · Corrections

“Just right. But that seemed like a big. That was a Ferrari. It seemed like a big little better. Absolutely. But it seemed like a big number. And that's the beauty of compounding.”
2016-05-20 · Masters in Business · Interview With Jeff deGraaf: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“My father in law was in town this weekend He showed me a picture of his Mustang that was brand new when he bought it in 1965. And he said, I just saw it on eBay for a little under $100,000. And so I did the quick math on it. And it worked out to about a seven and a half annualized rate of return.”
2016-05-20 · Masters in Business · Interview With Jeff deGraaf: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Of compound interest. Right? I mean, you know, you can look at the tables, you can do all the forward valuation calculations you want and see how you can turn $1,000 into something extraordinary. But the power of living for 20 years and seeing that work is astounding. And I think it's underappreciated by the masses.”
2016-05-20 · Masters in Business · Interview With Jeff deGraaf: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“That's a great question. I think instead of I knew about this, but how about the appreciation of this? I think it's probably a better way to think about it, is the absolute power.”
2016-05-20 · Masters in Business · Interview With Jeff deGraaf: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I really encourage the students to get their feet wet with the CFA program while they're in college and then just gives them a leg up as they get out to understand to prospective employers that, hey, I'm serious about this business and I've invested my resources and time to do this. But programming history and just commitment, get involved.”
2016-05-20 · Masters in Business · Interview With Jeff deGraaf: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, wildcatting. An event. Just get experience. Get your feet wet. Get your feet wet, get your feet wet. The second, and from my perspective, I really don't hire people unless they're programmers. You have to have just a solid understanding of programming because that's really where the power is, you know. So, you know, if you're coming out and you're committed to the business and you want to show the commitment to the business as a, you know, as a young, fresh graduate, I'd say get enrolled in the CFA program as soon as you possibly can show that this is where you want to be. Obviously, it's more specific than an MBA program. In fact, my alma mater, I”
2016-05-20 · Masters in Business · Interview With Jeff deGraaf: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Which is just a very good history. I'm not a fan of the title, but it's a very good history of the U.S. economic cycles, boom busts, and takes us through with a lot of interesting anecdotes about how the greenback became the greenback and just some interesting anecdotes about the US specifically.”
2016-05-20 · Masters in Business · Interview With Jeff deGraaf: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Lords of Finance. Exactly. Lords of Finance. That book really. Flailing about that'll disabuse you of those notions. And remember, at the time, their technology that they had was superior to anything that they had 30 years prior, right? So it's not like we're suddenly so much smarter because of all this stuff. It's just, you know, there are certain things that are just unknowable and you find that in the business. So I think that's interesting. There's a good book called.”
2016-05-20 · Masters in Business · Interview With Jeff deGraaf: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“About way back, way back to the 30s, right? No kidding because you'll find that there, you know, we like to think that they're driving silly cars and wearing wool suits in the summer and they don't have a clue. I mean, they're very thoughtful. As of course they are, right? Well, the”
2016-05-20 · Masters in Business · Interview With Jeff deGraaf: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And bonds Absolutely. It's I've recently started actually fondly reading the minutes from Federal Reserve meetings. Really? Because the same thing, right?”
2016-05-20 · Masters in Business · Interview With Jeff deGraaf: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I think any book on market history is fantastic. Just to, again, try to internalize and understand what Bob Farrell knew from living it, the more you can understand the history of the markets, the more you'll find that things aren't changing, they're staying the same.”
2016-05-20 · Masters in Business · Interview With Jeff deGraaf: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I mean, this is probably a little bit more controversial, but I will say that I've certainly internalized the thought process of the Austrian cycle of economics. Not that it's always right. I wouldn't think about it that way. But in terms of sort of grounding yourself and understanding that trees don't grow to the sky, you can't dig your way to China no matter how hard you try. I think it's just a good understanding not only of credit. Money and the influence on the economy over time and the business cycle”
2016-05-20 · Masters in Business · Interview With Jeff deGraaf: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, I don't think I read hedge funders yet, but so be it. That to me, I thought was sort of bringing theoretical to reality, right? There's always the difference of, you know, up on the chalkboard, it looks nice, but in the trenches, how does this really play out? And that was using both. You had fundamental traders there. You had technical traders there. You had some that did a combination. And obviously all did it. Discipline, by the way.”
2016-05-20 · Masters in Business · Interview With Jeff deGraaf: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I think without question. I think it's underrated amongst the entire street is how important and underutilized discipline is, right? And the problem being is that when you quantify it, you also quantify what your loss is going to be, right? And so you know that you're not always going to be right, but you have to be willing to be wrong by this much. And most people say, I don't want to be wrong by this much, right? And so instead of quantifying it, they'll just do it by the seat of their pants. Some can do it successfully, some can't. I'd rather quantify it and say, hey, here's where I am. Here's my risk profile. Now, what can I do to maybe further mitigate that? Or how can I position it so that I'm willing to accept that and move on, knowing that what I call terminal wealth is going to be far better than if I were to just index or something along those lines?”
2016-05-20 · Masters in Business · Interview With Jeff deGraaf: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, and I think look, as much as anything, what we try to do is we try to remain disciplined, right? And I think discipline is, and look, people in the business understand that, but it's un”
2016-05-20 · Masters in Business · Interview With Jeff deGraaf: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“You know, to the Wizards of Wall Street books. And I learned a lot from Richard Dennis and his turtle system and just the way that they think about things, right? You can train people on.”
2016-05-20 · Masters in Business · Interview With Jeff deGraaf: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Relies probably too much on science. We try to blend the two, right? Taking the, I understand there's something here, let's try to quantify it and do something around that. And look, even in fundamental analysis, there's an art to understanding where the kink in the hockey stick of growth is, right? Or what the difference between K and G in terms of the cost of capital and the growth rate is, you know, so there's an art to everything that's done. We just try to quantify it to the extent that we can. And so when I look at the people that read our research and that I'm good friends with in the business, they're people that I'm proud to have as clients. I mean, they're successful people. And I think you go back to the”
2016-05-20 · Masters in Business · Interview With Jeff deGraaf: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, you know, without being specific about people, I think what's interesting about the business and whether it was at Merrill or at Lehman or even at Renmac now, what I find is and very refreshing is it's the people that are very, very successful who are interested in our work, right? In other words, it's not the hotshot MBA who learn the same thing that everybody does, that technical analysis is just a bunch of bunk. They're quote unquote smarter than the market and they'll get it all figured out. It's the seasoned professional with the scars and the battle wounds who are always interested in our perspective because they've seen it before, right? They understand that there's something more to the business. And you can get into this debate between art and science, and I get it. And I do think that technical analysis probably relies too much on art, fundamental analysis.”
2016-05-20 · Masters in Business · Interview With Jeff deGraaf: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Equally as intuitive. And while he started a little later, I think he started in 68, had a very, very good perspective. And I worked more closely with Steve. ability to understand and really synthesize things qualitatively was unmatched from anybody I've worked with since. He just had a very good intuition about the market. And I was far more quantitative than Steve, but his intuition, I certainly learned a lot from in my years working with him and a great guy.”
2016-05-20 · Masters in Business · Interview With Jeff deGraaf: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“People don't realize risk adjusted absolutely it was right, no doubt about it so when you have somebody who's gone through that there's a perspective that they bring you know I can read about it all I want but when you're living it it's completely different right so this is just a very unique perspective that you know that I've really appreciated and and found useful Steve Shobin who was started in the in the Merrill Lynch Technical Analysis Department then left for Lehman Brothers in the mid-90s who I eventually joined in the late 90s at Lehman was”
2016-05-20 · Masters in Business · Interview With Jeff deGraaf: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Another guy who has him as a Well, he was the first to remember. He was the first one to actually head a technical analysis department at Merrill Lynch, right back in the 50s, 50s and 60s. And just a sweetheart of a guy and very intuitive, a great amount of experience and just understanding of the business. And what I really appreciated about Bob's perspective is he lived and didn't grow up in, but lived through the tumultuous times of the late 60s, the 70s. Horrendous markets.”
2016-05-20 · Masters in Business · Interview With Jeff deGraaf: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“As a positive for the US, I mean, this is not my area of expertise by any means, but I would view it as a positive for the US. And then the question is, how is that capital utilized, right? Is it really going into property, plant, and equipment, R&D spending? Look, I think the reality is the trajectory is the trajectory. I don't think a boon, if companies thought that they could earn positive returns on projects, they do it. I mean, for God's sakes, interest rates are next to nothing. So it's not a huge hurdle here.”
2016-05-20 · Masters in Business · Interview With Jeff deGraaf: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, I mean, look, when you withdraw money from one system to another, there usually is a transfer there, right? And so you're talking about tighter credit conditions and looser credit conditions. And by the way,”
2016-05-20 · Masters in Business · Interview With Jeff deGraaf: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Right now, we have the credit cycle is flat. That, you know, if you look at global central bank balance sheets, so we don't concern ourselves as much with the rates as we do what's happening to the composition of the balance sheet, right? So an expanding balance sheet is obviously credit creation. A contracting balance sheet is credit deterioration or destruction. Global balance sheets as we measure them are about flat year over year. And that's actually one of the lowest levels that we've seen in the last 15 years. So, you know, changing that dynamic would be important. The Chinese with the FX Reserve stabilizing would be one part. Sovereign wealth funds not pulling their wealth out of the US asset markets. That would be another point. There's a lot of different dynamics that take place with this, but credit is usually at the forefront of it. And I'd say non-financial leverage as we look at it, which is flattened here. If we can start to see that.”
2016-05-20 · Masters in Business · Interview With Jeff deGraaf: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, no, great question. It's usually something in the credit cycle, right? Credit cycle. It could be QE4. I don't think that's likely, but that's, you know, let's keep our minds open. It could be fiscal stimulus.”
2016-05-20 · Masters in Business · Interview With Jeff deGraaf: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Slight. But within that context, it's important to recognize that momentum has been good, the trends for equities are positive. And so while I think the path of least resistance in the near term is higher, by near term, I mean three to six, maybe 12 months, the amount of fuel we have to really propel it at this stage still seems to be relatively lacking. So this is not, in our view, this turn was not some historic low that's going to provide very good risk adjusted returns going forward. I think it's enough to probably catch people off sides, get people to reposition, and then come back and give us a tougher environment in 2017.”
2016-05-20 · Masters in Business · Interview With Jeff deGraaf: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Look, I view the world as this ever expanding sample of the population, right? So, you know, the reality is while we have really good data, as good our data is as good as anyone else is, you know, the markets in rough rice back in the Chinese in the 15th century, I don't have that data. So maybe something happened that was completely different that would skew other things. But what I can tell you is if you look over the last 80, 90 years and you look at risk-adjusted returns for the S&P versus the risk-free rate, and you measure those, we are in the 90th percentile of what you'd expect for excess returns. If you look at those other periods of time, the forward returns are not something that you'd want to write home about. In fact, you'd want to steer yourself towards that active management, not towards passive management. So I view this as the fuel in the tank is relatively...”
2016-05-20 · Masters in Business · Interview With Jeff deGraaf: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Certain things will perform better in certain environments, right? So a great example, shorts right here in this environment are not performing well. And we actually track that on a daily basis to see, hey, if you were to be a seller of a breakdown, what's the performance? I mean, they're just getting steamrolled. And that's actually an important, becomes an important market indicator, but it also gives us some idea that the breakdowns in this environment have actually been a source of alpha, that breakouts are working, that overbought conditions aren't a place to be selling. They're actually a reflection of the momentum. So our idea generation is a combination of using some traditional and non-traditional techniques, frankly, but then overlaying those and understanding how those work throughout history and where we should be at any given point in time.”
2016-05-20 · Masters in Business · Interview With Jeff deGraaf: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, it's idea generation. It's just not, you know, it's just not noodling over it every single day and saying, hey, what are this and that? It's looking at it. Now, it's important, though, is that we understand through our research that there are points where”
2016-05-20 · Masters in Business · Interview With Jeff deGraaf: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And we want to be careful. I mean, obviously, we don't want to have conflicts there, but what we do is, you know, we eat our own cooking. And it's a quantitative process. We think about it very quantitatively. It's not, you know, hey, I like that idea or that it's, what is the system spit out? How does that overlay with these things? And then here's how we're managing that portfolio.”
2016-05-20 · Masters in Business · Interview With Jeff deGraaf: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Do you hear this question all the time? That's one of the reasons why we started Redmack, to be honest with you. So we have a small Where we haven't actively raised money, we have an ongoing strategy that's in that, mostly partner money right now. But that's definitely stage RenMac 2.0 that's in that zone.”
2016-05-20 · Masters in Business · Interview With Jeff deGraaf: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Seems that way. We want to know what's going on. There's no doubt about it. But to draw the link between the economy and saying that that's going to mandate the S&P does X, good luck.”
2016-05-20 · Masters in Business · Interview With Jeff deGraaf: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, and let's, you know, let's take it to the next step too. Do I really care about the GDP number if I'm invested in the S&P 500? I'm not investing. Which is global. Right. I'm not invested in, I don't have a GDP swap, right? In other words, GDP up over 3%. I make money. That has nothing to do with it. I want to know what's going to happen to the S&P, right? And so maybe we're not in recession, but you still have a 20% correction or bear market in the S&P. That's important, right? And so from our standpoint, the work on getting the economy right, I get it from the perspective of the nation, and certainly I appreciate that, but from the perspective of the investor, what I'm really trying to do is get the S&P right, you know, and what I can tell you is getting the economy right has very little to do with getting the S&P right historically.”
2016-05-20 · Masters in Business · Interview With Jeff deGraaf: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Right, exactly. So, you know, what we look at is historically the market has sniffed things out. Now, it's gotten it wrong before, but as I like to say, you know, the market will fib, but it won't be a chronic liar, right? And so, you know, that's a great line. You have to be careful of that. But the reality is that the market gets it right and the market gets it right better than the PMI gets it right. It gets it right better than the employment data gets it right, et cetera. So that's why it's really important from our standpoint to put your ear on the track, understand or try to understand what's coming down the pipe. But from our vantage point, it's a very difficult and challenging environment trying to do that with just economic data.”
2016-05-20 · Masters in Business · Interview With Jeff deGraaf: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Correct. And look, the reason that business is so hard, if you could just look at economic data and forecast the SP correctly, it'd be easy, right? It doesn't happen. Hey, everybody's going to.”
2016-05-20 · Masters in Business · Interview With Jeff deGraaf: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, that's true. I mean, look, economic data is certainly less noisy, believe it or not, but it also lags. I mean, there's a reason there are leading indicators, coincidental indicators, and lagging indicators, right?”
2016-05-20 · Masters in Business · Interview With Jeff deGraaf: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, there was sector Yep. So changes and certainly we look at that and we look at the various weightings over time. We use option data for a big part of our sentiment work. We incorporate fundamental data from various various sources. And then we also, which I think uniquely, we bring in economic data so that we can see what that looks like in relation to these other things that we're looking at technically for stocks, right? So does PMI work here? Does the, you know, do the H4 data from the Fed, does that have any influence? And so always looking, always adding, always building and CFTC data, we use that as well.”
2016-05-20 · Masters in Business · Interview With Jeff deGraaf: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Right while keeping it secret. Look, it's, you know, we just opened a come up. Great. We use CRISP data, crisp price data. And we've got that, again, going back, S&P 90, going back to the mid-1920s.”
2016-05-20 · Masters in Business · Interview With Jeff deGraaf: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“We contextualize that and we show what that really means in terms of the history and whether or not it's valuable. And that's what the amateurs, and frankly, a lot of the pros don't even do. And so that's one thing that really sets us apart.”
2016-05-20 · Masters in Business · Interview With Jeff deGraaf: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Right, exactly. So it's the, you know, it's really the same thing in any business. And we find similar situations. But what we're doing, which is so unique, is, again, we're quantifying that process. So instead of drawing a trend line or saying it's overbought or oversold.”
2016-05-20 · Masters in Business · Interview With Jeff deGraaf: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“But I think that happens with almost anything that's out there, right? I mean, I think I can retile my bathroom. I can't retile my bathroom, right? I mean, that's YouTube video.”
2016-05-20 · Masters in Business · Interview With Jeff deGraaf: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, doing business or doing analysis, I think, are two different things, right? You know, look, business is done in the same way. I mean, obviously it's relationships and you understand what the clients are looking for. And I mean, I don't think that'll ever go away or certainly shouldn't.”
2016-05-20 · Masters in Business · Interview With Jeff deGraaf: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“The other part of that is the technology has allowed distribution to be a lot cheaper than it was. I mean, I remember when I started, we would send faxes, you know, and it was priced per sheet per recipient, right? I mean, there was a half a million dollars. I'm serious, there was a half a million dollar cost in distributing our research because we had to pay the long distance fee and the fax fees. And once the proliferation of email came about, writing a program to just convert that to a PDF and sending it out was simple. So facts.”
2016-05-20 · Masters in Business · Interview With Jeff deGraaf: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Newsletter writers and things, but I think there's a few things there. One is that the execution business, right? Having a broker dealer, the execution business through technology has gotten much simpler, right? So this whole best execution, I mean, RenMac, little old Renmac, can provide the best execution because we basically use the other big banks algos, right? So we come in and sort of a darker perspective, from the outside, people don't know exactly who's trading what, but we know from our desk.”
2016-05-20 · Masters in Business · Interview With Jeff deGraaf: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, I think so for the big banks, but there's still that opportunity set for the independents, right? And a number of firms forget the macro space that we focus on, but you've got it for media. You've got it for industrials. You've had it for financials. So even these silos. Dana Telsey.”
2016-05-20 · Masters in Business · Interview With Jeff deGraaf: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It's a great question. I think you're going to end up with the traditional banks, again, moving towards that juniorization”
2016-05-20 · Masters in Business · Interview With Jeff deGraaf: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Look, I'm a big believer in the research process. And while others are sort of moving away from it, call it straw hats in January, I think that there's opportunity there for the right people. It's not just plug and play and hope for the best. I think you have to get the right people in there. But there's still, I mean, we see it in the business. There's still a demand for good. Thoughtful analysts, right? Not just people that do stock research, but people that think differently, do the hard work, roll up their sleeves, you know, understand the company. There's interest there. Now, what we want to do and make sure that we do with this is that it ties into the macro play, right? So it's not just covering semiconductors, but the semiconductors from a broader standpoint and how and what that means for the macro world.”
2016-05-20 · Masters in Business · Interview With Jeff deGraaf: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Oh, it's all over the map. Some ISI salespeople, a lot of people that have been just from different parts of the business, all different walks of life.”
2016-05-20 · Masters in Business · Interview With Jeff deGraaf: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, it was, but it was there were good, hungry, young analysts. My president, now Steve Hash, who's president of Renmac, actually ran the research department there. We invested in up-and-comers. I mean, we just believed in good, smart young thinkers. Dada is enough.”
2016-05-20 · Masters in Business · Interview With Jeff deGraaf: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Oh, it was, you know, I was too young to know better. Ain't that always the way it is? Yeah. I mean, the 98 to 2000 was just unbelievable. Insane. It was. It was so much fun. It was so fun to come into the office, Leothers had a great culture. So that was 160 years old, something like that. Yeah, yeah, yeah. I mean, it was just, it was the little train who thought they could, right? And so just people were, you know, hungry and it was just, it was fun. We were all climbing in the right direction.”
2016-05-20 · Masters in Business · Interview With Jeff deGraaf: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source