YouSaid · the spoken record

Jeff Ross

lines on the record: 58
first: 2022-02-02
most recent: 2022-02-02
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

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“Thanks so much. So, yeah, Twitter, way too active on there. I should probably chill out on there a little bit. So, my handle is at Villshark. My website is Vilshire.com. You can check it out. And if you want to get a hold of me, I'm always checking my email too just because I'm always sitting in front of a computer. So info at Vilshire.com. I love talking with people about anything. I just really like helping people live well and invest wisely. It's part of why I was a physician, part of why I'm a investment guy now. If I can help people with anything investment related or even health related, I'm happy to help.”
2022-02-02 · We Study Billionaires · BTC063: Potential Economic Tightening & Bitcoin w/ Dr. Jeff Ross (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“But I think it's far wiser for most people to actually hold your own keys, keep them out of that because you're taking a ton of risk anytime you do that, right? We're trusting these companies that they're not going to run away with your money, that they're not going to rug pull you, that the SEC isn't going to come in and shut them down and trap your money there so you can't get your Bitcoin. So you're taking on a bunch of extra risk for those interest rates, probably not necessary. Some people like it. I don't hold it against people if they do that kind of thing, but I'd caution people that you are taking much more risk if you're earning interest.”
2022-02-02 · We Study Billionaires · BTC063: Potential Economic Tightening & Bitcoin w/ Dr. Jeff Ross (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I like the development of that in general. I'm very curious, again, to see what the SEC does with all that and to see if that's allowed. I think there are going to be some changes, but I don't know what those changes are. I don't know if the interest rates stay that high. I think Bitcoin being what it is, those rates will come down over time. For altcoins, they might stay high because those are so risky and crazy and junky in a lot of ways. Bitcoin is being the world's safest and soundest money. That interest rate just has to come down, down, down, down. So I think it will eventually be very low. And that will be the world's true real interest rate to go off of much better than 10-year treasuries, I think, and much more accurate because it's truly a free market. I think that, again, I'm kind of watching and waiting with those. People love to earn interest, right? I come from finance. I want to earn interest on my stuff too. I actually have some Satoshis in those kind of places earning interest just as a kind of a diversification strategy and an interest earning strategy.”
2022-02-02 · We Study Billionaires · BTC063: Potential Economic Tightening & Bitcoin w/ Dr. Jeff Ross (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“It is a fantastic time arbitrage opportunity. So I would be a buyer of that still, and even more so. You know, if we're value investors at heart, you obviously are too, when a great asset goes on sale, you buy more. If it goes even more on sale, you buy more if you can. So that's how I look at it. So in my client portfolios, I actually like the strategy. If you can't own Bitcoin outright, my favorite kind of Bitcoin proxies in that situation would be maybe own half GBTC actually half micro strategy, which I think is a great leveraged way to play Bitcoin. It's basically a leveraged ETF to Bitcoin at this point.”
2022-02-02 · We Study Billionaires · BTC063: Potential Economic Tightening & Bitcoin w/ Dr. Jeff Ross (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Exactly. He taught the class. He knows what he's doing here. And so to me, it's extremely frustrating, especially as a hardcore Bitcoiner. I think he should for sure just let the spot Bitcoin come to fruition spot Bitcoin ETF. And that would be a really easy way for lots of people, a very safe way for people to get into Bitcoin. A lot of boomers and people who don't like technology and don't want to hold their own keys and they think that's crazy and they don't understand any of that stuff. They just want to press a button and they want to own some sort of Bitcoin proxy and as close to owning real Bitcoin as they can within their portfolios. I think that's coming at some point, but like I said, I think he's holding it hostage. I think that's tragic. Back to GBTC. GBTC is at this huge discount to NAV right now to net asset value. I think at some point that is going to go to zero, probably within by the end of this year, I think we actually see a resolution. Maybe I'm too optimistic. I don't have any inside information. People just have to reason that out. If it does go to zero from a 30% discount to nav, they're getting that premium on top of price appreciation of.”
2022-02-02 · We Study Billionaires · BTC063: Potential Economic Tightening & Bitcoin w/ Dr. Jeff Ross (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yes, so it has been. It has been, although, but I actually think as disappointing as that's been for people who have been holding it, at some point I truly believe that that is a fantastic arbitrage opportunity. And I think that at some point that will go to zero. And I think just as you surmised, they're waiting for a Bitcoin, a spot Bitcoin ETF. So let's take a quick tangent on this. I think that Gary Gensler is holding the Bitcoin spot ETF hostage to all of his demands for these altcoins and crypto exchanges to get their butts and gear and to do all the stuff he wants to. I think that's the only valid reason because he's smart and he understands Bitcoin and he knows it's not a security and he knows it is not the altcoin world. It's totally different. And so”
2022-02-02 · We Study Billionaires · BTC063: Potential Economic Tightening & Bitcoin w/ Dr. Jeff Ross (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Great thoughts. So, yeah, I think the last time I checked a couple hours ago, the discount was about 30% to NAV, which is crazy. So I have a lot of thoughts on this. First of all, I've been holding GBTC individually in my own brokerage accounts and in our fund accounts and for our clients for a long time. So we have felt the wrath of that dropping. We started buying it when it was a little bit of a premium and then we've ridden that all the way down to this discount now this significant discount.”
2022-02-02 · We Study Billionaires · BTC063: Potential Economic Tightening & Bitcoin w/ Dr. Jeff Ross (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And most people would be better off just doing that. But I just believe that there are still some active managers out there who have that special sauce and who can actually figure out a way to beat the market over time and generate alpha for their clients.”
2022-02-02 · We Study Billionaires · BTC063: Potential Economic Tightening & Bitcoin w/ Dr. Jeff Ross (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Again, like, you know, so everything's correlating. So the dollar always tends to go up in these kind of scary environments. Stocks go down. Most equity is go down. The higher the beta, the better for going down. I don't short Bitcoin, but I do short crypto exchanges and even some Bitcoin miners to hedge against Bitcoin in my portfolio, those all basically go to one and they all go down at the same kind of dramatic rate. I like when correlation goes to one. I don't look for uncorrelated assets. I don't have that all-weather portfolio in that fashion. So that's kind of a misnomer if you think of it like the Ray Dalio kind of thing.”
2022-02-02 · We Study Billionaires · BTC063: Potential Economic Tightening & Bitcoin w/ Dr. Jeff Ross (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, so great question. So, first of all, I would say about correlation is that when you enter periods of risk-off periods where people are scared, where the macro environment is bearish like we are right now, I think, correlation trends to one on all risk on assets. So I think that's the period we're coming to. We're seeing that across altruite. Bitcoin and the NASDAQ and S&P 500 are all starting to trend towards one. They're not going to get to one, but they'll trend that direction and get pretty high 0.9 possibly. I'm not into the portfolio theory of having a portfolio of uncorrelated assets. That's kind of getting back to the Dalio all-weather portfolio where you just set it and forget it. That's not how I roll, right? So I'm a top-down kind of guy. When I see the tsunami tidal wave coming in, I go all in on all of those kind of assets. Sometimes I'm wrong, but usually if you get the macro right, you get the movements of asset classes right as well. So I actually like periods of high correlation.”
2022-02-02 · We Study Billionaires · BTC063: Potential Economic Tightening & Bitcoin w/ Dr. Jeff Ross (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Going to start buying ETFs, and that's the end of it. We're like talking end stage game at that point. And that would be the time to just basically just go all in on Bitcoin because equities, they don't have any more alpha in them at that point. Bonds already don't have any more alpha in them. Real estate, that's the same kind of story, the purchases of mortgage-backed securities. They could continue doing that. They're pumping valuation so that regular people can't buy houses anymore. They're just these investment vehicles. It's just, it's such a ridiculous system. And so that's just this runaway centralized, socialized system. It's not even worth investing in anymore at that point. And then I think the world just completely pivots 180 and goes into Bitcoin at that point.”
2022-02-02 · We Study Billionaires · BTC063: Potential Economic Tightening & Bitcoin w/ Dr. Jeff Ross (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Think that's great. You bring that up. I've actually been thinking about that exact same thing and what would happen in that scenario? What if people are just like, I don't believe this anymore? And they start, you know, that's where we start talking about the crisis and confidence in your currency. Like, this is not sound money anymore. And what if the stock market doesn't believe it anymore and we don't get that pump higher and inflation starts ripping higher again and people start really panicking and these stagflationary conditions? I think what is inevitable are two things. I think one is UBI is definitely coming and that would help kind of bring it along because people are going to be so miserable living conditions in a state inflationary environment and they already are miserable for the lower economic echelons right now. Feel terrible for what's going on. Two is that I think that's when the Fed starts purchasing equities outright. I think it's the Japanification of the equities market and it's just completely no longer a free market anymore. They're just like, look, we're trying to pump it up. It's not pumping up. We're going to be pro-America.”
2022-02-02 · We Study Billionaires · BTC063: Potential Economic Tightening & Bitcoin w/ Dr. Jeff Ross (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Nobody wants to go back to work kind of thing, and the economy's really stalled out. I would be concerned at that point and I would stay bearish.”
2022-02-02 · We Study Billionaires · BTC063: Potential Economic Tightening & Bitcoin w/ Dr. Jeff Ross (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“No set rule that the viruses have to get less lethal, but the good news is more and more and more people in the world have gotten it, so they have natural immunity, which I'm a big fan of, by the way, never gets talked about big fan of natural immunity, but also tons of people have gotten vaccines, whether, you know, regardless of people's opinions on them, more and more people's bodies have seen this virus. And so it's less and less likely to hospitalize them, to kill them as well. So even if we have variants that are worse than Omicron coming, I think we'll tolerate it better as a species. So I'm less concerned about that. But you just never know. We could get just some killer one, you know. So hard to say. But that would change my thesis. People ask me, when would I change my thesis and be even more bearish into the second half? It would be if something like that happened. So if inflation suddenly ramped up again and started accelerating for whatever reason, supply chain issues got worse.”
2022-02-02 · We Study Billionaires · BTC063: Potential Economic Tightening & Bitcoin w/ Dr. Jeff Ross (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Your natural immunity, those kind of things. Delta was rough. I mean, I was a doctor, I was watching these people come through. I was reading their chest CTs. And when it hit people hard, it hit them really hard and it killed a ton of people. And so that's what it is. But if we have another bad variant of this virus, that could ramp things back up again and cause a lot of issues as well.”
2022-02-02 · We Study Billionaires · BTC063: Potential Economic Tightening & Bitcoin w/ Dr. Jeff Ross (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“The difference is, I think the supply from what I'm hearing from CEOs of companies is obviously the supply chain issues are massive right now. They still are, but they're all talking about like they are kind of improving, at least that's what I'm reading. They're slowly improving. They're working through the logjams. They're working through these kind of issues. So I do think that improves. I think that with commodity prices also coming down, that that helps with that kind of stuff too. They're able to get what they want for prices that are more reasonable. So I think employment issues are going to be just as you say. They're going to be sticky and rough. We're going to have labor issues for quite a while. I think supply chain kind of issues are going to recede, so get better. And that will help kind of slowly pull down inflation a little bit. The one, this wouldn't be a black.”
2022-02-02 · We Study Billionaires · BTC063: Potential Economic Tightening & Bitcoin w/ Dr. Jeff Ross (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I agree with you on the employment. That's a huge issue, and I think that's going to take actually years to play out. I think there's this whole generation of people that are like, I'm not going to go work that crappy service job for a minimum wage or whatever.”
2022-02-02 · We Study Billionaires · BTC063: Potential Economic Tightening & Bitcoin w/ Dr. Jeff Ross (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And that's going to be the time to buy back into risk on assets in the NASDAQ little tech companies that have gotten crushed. So that's kind of how I'm looking at playing this”
2022-02-02 · We Study Billionaires · BTC063: Potential Economic Tightening & Bitcoin w/ Dr. Jeff Ross (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“What we see is kind of really bad to less bad economic conditions. Bitcoin was the first major asset class alongside of small cap US stocks to peak on November 10th. And then they've been grinding down. I think they've been doing that because they sniffed out trouble under the hood under the economic hood. And then it took the larger asset classes, the larger stocks and things like that, the S&P 500, DAO and all that stuff. It took them to basically the new year to start coming down. So they're behind Bitcoin and Bitcoin is more of the leading indicator. Bitcoin's probably going to be the first to bottom or one of the first, so I call it the canary in the coal mine. And then I think it starts kind of grinding higher. And then maybe a week later, two weeks later, a month later, I don't know, equities bottom, and they start to grind higher from there as well. So nobody will believe it too. That will be the point where Shift is going to come out, declaring victory, Bitcoin's going to zero. It's dead. It's stupid. You guys are crazy buy gold. And that's going to be the time to buy Bitcoin.”
2022-02-02 · We Study Billionaires · BTC063: Potential Economic Tightening & Bitcoin w/ Dr. Jeff Ross (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I keep telling people too like we're in the winter right now, but at some point spring comes. So at some point we go from bad to less bad. I think that that probably happens in about the third quarter based on kind of historical numbers. And so when I say third quarter, I think that the markets look ahead, especially risk on assets tend to look like one to two months in advance and they tend to do their stuff kind of in anticipation of improving economic conditions and changing, accelerating inflationary conditions as well. We can talk about that a little bit. real quick side tangent. I think inflation decelerates all this year and by the end of the year we're looking at kind of like three to five percent levels of inflation which are still high they're still over the two percent but i think economic conditions should start to improve before that third quarter probably fourth quarter as well of 2020 so that's why i look at this i'm kind of uh i think we're going to dump in the first half of 2022 and then accelerate out of it i don't think that we have that v shape i think”
2022-02-02 · We Study Billionaires · BTC063: Potential Economic Tightening & Bitcoin w/ Dr. Jeff Ross (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Me, it looks as dramatic as it did back in March of 2020, so I don't think we get that dramatic V-shaped recovery that we had with COVID. That was like unprecedented. I don't know that we'll ever see something like that again. We might. We probably will. But it's unlikely to happen again. I think what's more likely is that we trend down and we do this stair step down where we drop, go sideways, drop, go sideways, and it just sort of crushes the souls of everybody. We may have some sort of big news trigger event like a COVID or maybe Russia does invade the Ukraine or maybe something happens that triggers fear and panic in the markets. And we go from this kind of just debilitating decrease in all risk on assets and then it just plunks down. At some point right around that point, I think that's where we bottom. That's where we get the Fed's attention for sure and they start considering pivoting. At some point, business cycles just have to bottom. That's the beauty of all this stuff.”
2022-02-02 · We Study Billionaires · BTC063: Potential Economic Tightening & Bitcoin w/ Dr. Jeff Ross (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I was just going to say that the technology is moving so fast. I will be astonished if government can actually keep up with that in the SEC. So I just. I don't know. I don't know how this ends, but it will definitely be interesting.”
2022-02-02 · We Study Billionaires · BTC063: Potential Economic Tightening & Bitcoin w/ Dr. Jeff Ross (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, that's my take on it too. I think they're doing that. And so I'm really curious to see, I obviously don't own any Ripple. So I'm very curious, though, to see what the verdict does on that. And then not just the verdict, but what's the penalty? Now, is it a slap in the wrist? Is it a sizable fine? Do they try to shut it down? I just don't know the answer to that. I don't know if they know the answer to that, too. They're probably kind of sitting in their... Meetings like, what are we actually going to do about it?”
2022-02-02 · We Study Billionaires · BTC063: Potential Economic Tightening & Bitcoin w/ Dr. Jeff Ross (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Shut down Cardano or Solana or Ethereum. I can't imagine that they would do that. But so I don't know what they're going to do. I don't know what the penalty is. Are they going to find the founders? I just don't know.”
2022-02-02 · We Study Billionaires · BTC063: Potential Economic Tightening & Bitcoin w/ Dr. Jeff Ross (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“The greatest policy weapon is basically economic sanctions, right? They can cut off monetary flows from this country, blah, blah, blah. They know where the dollar is. They know where it's going. They know everything about it. So they can control that. And that's a huge source of power for us. Crypto and even these stablecoins, they don't have that same control over that. And they hate that and they want that control and they want. So they want to have their fingers in everything so that they can keep a control. They can keep terrorism and financing and all that kind of stuff. under surveillance. That's where all of this comes in. Coming over to Bitcoin, I think they realize we can't do anything about Bitcoin. It's completely decentralized. It's totally secure. It has this proof of work thing that basically makes it an impregnable fortress. There's nothing to do about it. So let's just let that lie. And we're going to start going after all these other things. That's my take on it from the high level. None of it surprises me. I do think stuff is coming. I don't know. The only thing I don't know is what that means.”
2022-02-02 · We Study Billionaires · BTC063: Potential Economic Tightening & Bitcoin w/ Dr. Jeff Ross (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“On it, I think. And so that's those things. And then there's the stable coins, which are a totally different issue. I think it's so interesting that Janet Yellen has been kind of focusing in on those and a lot of the other leadership. Elizabeth Warren has had things to say as well. I don't want them meddling with this kind of stuff, honestly. I'm more libertarian kind of biased. I would rather have less government for sure. But I think that those things are going to have their moment under the scrutiny spotlight as well. And I don't know what's going to happen. I wouldn't be surprised some of the headlines are talking about are they going to get sort of swallowed up by big banks. Is JP Morgan going to buy circle or something like that and own USDC coin, those kind of things. I think it's very possible. My take on all of this, and they call it a security issue. This is a matter of national security. I really think it comes down to, you know, the U.S. government has had this absolute domination on the world's financial system for decades and decades and decades. Their greatest”
2022-02-02 · We Study Billionaires · BTC063: Potential Economic Tightening & Bitcoin w/ Dr. Jeff Ross (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Starting to see kind of the framework get laid out. I'm nervous for altcoin people. A lot of my friends are into that kind of stuff. I generally focus on Bitcoin, so I don't care much about it. To me, it's more of a distraction. But there's what a trillion dollars worth of people's money in that kind of stuff and lots of people really believe in it. And I think they have sort of this herd mentality, like there's a safety in numbers. Oh, they're not really going to come after us. Oh, but we are decentralized. They can't really shut this project down. And, you know, and we're just like Bitcoin and all that kind of stuff. I don't think so. I think they're in trouble. And I also think that the exchanges are in trouble because, you know, they've been sort of skirting the issue as well. But I think as far as Gensler is concerned, they're saying, hey, look, as long as you have a platform where these unregistered securities can trade, buy, sell, whatever, earn interest, do all that kind of stuff, you're complicit in this as well. And so we're going to come after you. And I just feel like people are so surprised by it, but he's been clear as day.”
2022-02-02 · We Study Billionaires · BTC063: Potential Economic Tightening & Bitcoin w/ Dr. Jeff Ross (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“People are really clucking about it right now on Twitter, right? And it's making all the headlines. None of this is a surprise. It shouldn't be a surprise to anybody. You've been watching Gary Gensler. I've been watching him closely and listen to his speeches. He, I think, has been exceedingly clear. Bitcoin is not a security. Couple other things like Bitcoin are also probably not securities. And I think of probably like the forks, you know, the Bitcoin Cash and the BSB and maybe the Litecoin and these other things that tried to compete with Bitcoin as a currency but lost clearly. And then there's everything else. So 98% of everything else are securities. He's very clear. He's like, and if you are one of these, we know that you are. I would recommend that you come talk to us. He said that many times, like, we don't like it that you are unregistered securities. We're the SEC. We have jurisdiction over you, even if you don't think we do. We're coming. So come talk to us or we're going to come after you. And I think that's what's happening now.”
2022-02-02 · We Study Billionaires · BTC063: Potential Economic Tightening & Bitcoin w/ Dr. Jeff Ross (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Think it's somewhere between 20 and 100 trillion. I don't know where that is. So maybe let's call it 60 trillion give or take. I think by the time it gets that big, people are really going to be taking it seriously. They're going to see it as the world's major decentralized non-government currency. And so that's when they're really going to start thinking about, you know, I think it happens also first in these developing nations that are really struggling with these currency crises on kind of a regular basis. The Turkeys, the South America, Central American countries that have just gone through just horrific, horrific losses of purchasing power that destroys families, destroys business. They already understand the value proposition of Bitcoin. They understand preservation of purchasing power. They understand that an inept government is controlling your money supply that they're literally sucking your purchasing power, your proof of work away from you so that the government can survive at the expense of its people. I think it's practically criminal. It's definitely immoral.”
2022-02-02 · We Study Billionaires · BTC063: Potential Economic Tightening & Bitcoin w/ Dr. Jeff Ross (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Like, well, do I really want to, if I hit the sell button, do I really want US dollars or would I rather hold the soundest money? Would I rather hold Bitcoin? At some point, that will happen on a major scale.”
2022-02-02 · We Study Billionaires · BTC063: Potential Economic Tightening & Bitcoin w/ Dr. Jeff Ross (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Dollars kind of floating around the system. So that's why when we're in these sort of risk off environments like we are now, it's really smart, I think, to raise some cash because your cash alone, which normally is just this dying melting ice cube, as everybody knows over the long run, in the short run, it can provide a great safe haven. It can actually provide alpha relative to all of these other declining asset classes. So that's kind of how I look at it. At some point, by the way, people keep asking people who understand Bitcoin, I think kind of fundamentally get that someday down the road Bitcoin will also be a risk-off asset that that will be the go-to safe haven asset like the dollar is, like long-dated US treasuries are, like gold historically has been, I think we're way too early in that. There's not enough people who truly understand Bitcoin yet. It hasn't reached a high enough level of adoption, but probably before this decade's over and hopefully by around 2025, 2026, somewhere in there, people will start to think about it.”
2022-02-02 · We Study Billionaires · BTC063: Potential Economic Tightening & Bitcoin w/ Dr. Jeff Ross (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Took me a long time to figure out, and I think it's really actually pretty simple if you think about it. When people start getting nervous and the panic starts to set in, what do they do? Think about what you do. When you panic and you're like, oh shoot, I have these assets. I'm watching my net worth go down. I'm looking at my 401k. I'm looking at my IRA. It's going down, down, down. Panic starts to set in and you get that fight or flight response. And so what do you do? You hit the cell button. What does it mean when you hit the cell button? You're selling your stock and you're buying the US dollar. And so people all around the world, I mean in the US especially that's where we're thinking about mostly, but people sell their stocks. They sell their bonds. They sell their commodities. They're selling real estate related things. And they're buying dollars. Most people don't think of it. I'm buying dollars. They just think I'm selling this other asset. But you're buying that. That puts a lot of pressure on that. And so that causes that upward pressure in the dollar. And that's what causes the performance to go well. It also can cause liquidity issues with the dollar as well, obviously, if there's not enough.”
2022-02-02 · We Study Billionaires · BTC063: Potential Economic Tightening & Bitcoin w/ Dr. Jeff Ross (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Snow, and I would go long. I had probably short hot weather and short getting a suntan. And I feel like I'm just the messenger telling people this kind of stuff. Like, look, this is the macro backdrop. You can hate me for it, but this is what the weather is. And so you can fight it if you want to, and you can go out in your swimsuit in the, you know, negative 10 degree weather, or you can kind of go along with it and go build a snowman, you know, and so anyways, that's how I feel about all this kind of stuff, that the macro to me is so clear right now. And I'm not hating on anybody and I don't want Bitcoin to go down. I know that over the long run, it goes up and to the right. It's truly number go up technology. And I really believe that it will. But in that huge secular bull market that we're going to see, I think throughout most of our lifetimes, we get these bearish cycles. We can have, you know, business cycles where it's going up and down and up and down. And we're just in a down point. And that's a great time to be accumulating more Bitcoin and risk assets in general. You want to be accumulating them when they're down big. And I think that's just kind of period we're in right now.”
2022-02-02 · We Study Billionaires · BTC063: Potential Economic Tightening & Bitcoin w/ Dr. Jeff Ross (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“If the macro backdrop is bearish and vice versa, if it's bullish, if the macro is bullish, it's like a tsunami. You know, it's moving in this direction. You can have the coolest sandcastles, the biggest, most powerful sandcastles. If you see a tsunami coming, it just absolutely overwhelms all that other stuff. It truly doesn't matter. So I say you either got to surf it or you got to get out of the way because it's just doing what it's doing. And then one other analogy because people keep getting mad at me again on Twitter. I feel like I'm a meteorologist, right? I grew up in Minnesota and say we're in January in Minnesota. It's a very cold place. I feel like the weather guy is saying, well, it's winter. So this whole next week, you should expect snow and really cold weather. And there's going to be icy roads. And I feel like people are throwing stuff at me and they're mad. They're like, but I want warm weather. I want sunshine. I'm like, well, it's winter. And so I would probably plan on it being cold and snowy. I would go long, cold. I would go long.”
2022-02-02 · We Study Billionaires · BTC063: Potential Economic Tightening & Bitcoin w/ Dr. Jeff Ross (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I'll do a little backstory to this. You know, I've been bearish on Twitter very publicly since early January, since I realized I made a mistake by being too bullish on Bitcoin all the way through kind of the third week of December and my fun on like, oh shoot, like Bitcoin has sniffed out that there's trouble under the hood. I didn't believe it. I was waiting for this parabolic ramp up to kind of end the year. Didn't get it. My fund suffered in December. It was a bummer. So I flipped neutral and then early January. I'm like, no, this is real. We're literally sliding into really bad conditions. So I flipped bearish at that point. So I liken it to, you know, I love on-chain analytics. I love technical analysis and all that kind of stuff. I use it a lot. I look at valuation metrics. But when the macro setup is clearly in one direction, that supersedes all of those things. So I don't ever look for bullish TA, bullish technical analysis in a bearish macro setup. I don't care about bullish on-chain analytics.”
2022-02-02 · We Study Billionaires · BTC063: Potential Economic Tightening & Bitcoin w/ Dr. Jeff Ross (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“But I liken it too. They're basically driving a car and they're just looking in the rear view mirror the whole time. And so at some point when they're driving forward, looking in the rearview mirror, they're going to crash and the market's going to crash and it's going to tell them that, oh, shoot, we made a mistake. We're tightening at the wrong time. And I think they're going to do another pivot similar to what they did back around Christmas of 2018. They're going to be forced to. The market's going to tank. It's going to really get their attention. They're going to have to take the attention off of getting inflation under control and put it back on sustaining the markets.”
2022-02-02 · We Study Billionaires · BTC063: Potential Economic Tightening & Bitcoin w/ Dr. Jeff Ross (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I think the Fed continues to just look at old news, and they keep talking about inflation is running hot, hotter than you expected. The economy is hot. Job growth is great, you know, and all that kind of stuff. Therefore, we're going to put on the brakes right now. And I keep saying they're doing it at exactly the wrong time. They should have been doing it last year when the economy”
2022-02-02 · We Study Billionaires · BTC063: Potential Economic Tightening & Bitcoin w/ Dr. Jeff Ross (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Everything to me is cyclical, right? So I look at everything as kind of this roller coaster sine wave, and a lot of these asset classes move based on kind of year-over-year comparisons. So I look at the comps from usually a year ago, sometimes quarter over quarter, depends what we're talking about. To me, when I look at fourth quarter of 2021, all of these metrics were literally off the charts. The economy just ripped it higher. Inflation was 7%, a little under that for the whole quarter, 6.6% or something like that, if you average out the quarter. Those are just unsustainably high rates. And so to me, it has to start declining at that point. So that's what I mean when I think that we've peaked in the business cycle and we're kind of on our way down again. Look at the indicators coming in. They're still reporting indicators and people are still talking about high inflation and they're still talking about a strong economy because we're talking about December numbers. That's still what's coming in. So the headlines are old news. And what's so interesting is”
2022-02-02 · We Study Billionaires · BTC063: Potential Economic Tightening & Bitcoin w/ Dr. Jeff Ross (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And it paid off. And it's not me, it's just kind of looking, reading the macro tea leaves and seeing where we are. I didn't know that we were going to have that huge drawdown, but I had so many red flags at the time that like, I'm not willing to take the chance. I'm not willing to sit in equities right now and sit in these huge risk-con assets. And so I think we're at that same kind of setting. And for my long only clients, we're just kind of sitting in cash. From a hedge fund, I'm actively hedged against that to try to profit from the expected downside.”
2022-02-02 · We Study Billionaires · BTC063: Potential Economic Tightening & Bitcoin w/ Dr. Jeff Ross (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, right on. And we're seeing the yield curve flatten. That's kind of expected just based on this kind of thing. So I'm totally not a fan of bonds for the long term, but I will put them in our portfolios, our all-weather portfolios for a quarter maybe or for two quarters or something like that if I think they're going to outperform, especially where I think risk on assets are not the place to be. We'll kind of hide in the US dollar. So we'll hide in cash. We'll raise a bunch of cash. We'll sit in long dated U.S. treasuries. I love going long the VIX. We talked about that last night as well. And so that's how I have my VailShare clients positioned right now. We are as defensive right now in our portfolios, and it's January 27th right now. So we're as defensive right now as we were back in late February of 2020. That was the last time I was this defensive.”
2022-02-02 · We Study Billionaires · BTC063: Potential Economic Tightening & Bitcoin w/ Dr. Jeff Ross (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“His beliefs on that as well. But in the short term, they actually can provide alpha for you. So like in a setting like what we are right now, when we have these decelerating inflationary conditions and decelerating economic conditions, I think we peaked in Q4 of 2021. I think we're on the decline right now. I think that the Fed is tightening at exactly the wrong time, and we can get into that kind of stuff too. When we're in these kind of settings where the Fed's trying to put the brakes on, even though the economy is starting to look sick, long-dated U.S. Treasuries actually can perform pretty well.”
2022-02-02 · We Study Billionaires · BTC063: Potential Economic Tightening & Bitcoin w/ Dr. Jeff Ross (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“That's a meme now. Anyway, so it's awesome. So I love all that stuff. So I do use that Pedge for data and I like their approach from a macro perspective. For me, that helps kind of ground me in where we are from a macro standpoint. And I keep bringing that up because different asset classes perform in expected fashion when you look back historically in different setups. And so like how we are right now. So speaking of bonds ironically, so I'm all about you and your beliefs on bonds right now. I mean, they're literally just return free risk, right? If you hold them for the long term, I'm totally up with Greg Foss.”
2022-02-02 · We Study Billionaires · BTC063: Potential Economic Tightening & Bitcoin w/ Dr. Jeff Ross (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yes, he took a ton of crap from his Bitcoin stuff and his seller interview that's still going down in history as one of the best interviews. I think that's the interview where sailor said, all your models are broken.”
2022-02-02 · We Study Billionaires · BTC063: Potential Economic Tightening & Bitcoin w/ Dr. Jeff Ross (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, yeah, the Hedgehi quad four-ish action. Yeah. So I like that data a lot because what I like about Keith and his data is they have real-time economic data. And I actually find that stuff pretty handy.”
2022-02-02 · We Study Billionaires · BTC063: Potential Economic Tightening & Bitcoin w/ Dr. Jeff Ross (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“First of all, it's not a hands-off. You know, Dahlia is going for the I don't ever touch this portfolio for 20 years. What are the categories that I can put in where one will even out the other one if there's a bear here and a bull here? So, I don't do it like that. What I mean by all weather personally is I look across all asset classes and how they're going to perform at different stages of the business cycle. So depending on if we're accelerating economic growth or decelerating, if we're in an accelerating inflationary period or decelerating, how those things play together in different asset classes perform differently.”
2022-02-02 · We Study Billionaires · BTC063: Potential Economic Tightening & Bitcoin w/ Dr. Jeff Ross (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I didn't use that. That's for urologists to do prostate surgeries and then others. So I did more, the companies that I would use would be more like Boston Scientific and Edwards Life Sciences and those kind of things. Put catheters in people so like blood vessels and if people like somebody has cancer and they need a port put in for chemotherapy I was the guy that did that and lots of other things but I know about those companies intuitive surgical is a fantastic company that robotic surgery invasive surgery I'm a big fan of the medical device companies. Anything that can make surgery easier, more tolerable, if you can get in and out in a day versus being hung up in a hospital for a week, those kind of companies. I'm a big fan of, I like supporting those in general.”
2022-02-02 · We Study Billionaires · BTC063: Potential Economic Tightening & Bitcoin w/ Dr. Jeff Ross (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Kind of things, and they sort of look at these guys as the bad guys. They don't have a lot of new products anymore that are really sort of life-changing. There's no new Lipitor from like 20 years ago that was the best-selling drug of all time. Gilead had this hepatitis C drug that kept changing the names for it. Harvoni, I think, was one of the most recent ones. But anyways, it cured Hep C. They actually cured the disease. And so their whole patient population to treat to sell their drug to just kind of vanish because they cured all these people. So that's a great a great thing to have if you're the people, but it's not so great if you're the company because now you don't have anybody to sell this product to anymore. So it's sort of a wishy-washy overview, but I think that healthcare is really changing with technology. We're moving more into areas like genetic medicine and things like that. And I think that's where the future is, Teledoc, those kind of companies, telemedicine, anything that combines healthcare and technology, those are sort of the hot areas. And I think those are the areas to kind of”
2022-02-02 · We Study Billionaires · BTC063: Potential Economic Tightening & Bitcoin w/ Dr. Jeff Ross (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Seen as turning bearish. A lot of people turn to healthcare kind of like they would for obviously like U.S. treasuries and the US dollar things like that. CVS, I think, is just a great example of a company that was just kind of languishing and nobody cared about it because it was a great value, but it didn't have a ton of growth. It's not going anywhere for a long time. So I think that's why a lot of people glommed onto that. The other companies you mentioned, I mean, insurers, those are the companies. As a doctor, we love to hate. They give doctors just tons of problems, but they're great if you own them from an equity perspective. They just do well. And whenever the markets are concerned at all, they kind of grind through. They're like a Hershey stock or these other just real kind of safe haven low beta stocks that always perform even in kind of the tough markets. So that's why I think those have outperformed. Pharmaceuticals in general, I think, are kind of old farm, traditional pharma. They're kind of in the doghouse. I think a lot of people have drifted towards alternative medicine.”
2022-02-02 · We Study Billionaires · BTC063: Potential Economic Tightening & Bitcoin w/ Dr. Jeff Ross (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Question first of all, I used to write about CVS as being a great value company way back in the day. It took a long time, kind of getting back to what we were talking about. The value companies have been sort of left in the dust bin, but we recently have come into a period where value has generally outperformed. So I think the pharmacy companies, well, it depends. You have to tease those out, right? Because there's the COVID-related pharmacy companies that just crushed it, the Pfizers and those kind of things. And then there's the other companies that kind of got left for dead. I used to be a big fan of the biotech sector, Gilead, Biogen, those kind of companies. They were the hot, hot companies up until about 2015, actually right when I kind of was getting started with my stuff. And then they entered this really painful bear market and just never really got going again. Biotech was super hot when I first started. It still kind of left for dead, honestly. And so it kind of depends on what sector of healthcare we're talking about, but healthcare in general is a great generally a great defensive place. So when the macro.”
2022-02-02 · We Study Billionaires · BTC063: Potential Economic Tightening & Bitcoin w/ Dr. Jeff Ross (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And it was just like that. I'm like, here's your portfolio, here's the same portfolio, but with like 5% Bitcoin in it. And look at the difference in returns. And it's not more volatile. It's just much better returns. And this is what Bitcoin offers over the long run. So after I did that, so now I'm to the point where my clients love it. And I actually have to kind of pull them back a little bit. Like, all right, hold on. You know, like we still want to stay a little bit diversified in these portfolios for some who want to go all in. I'm like, great, let me help you do that. Let me show you how to do that. And I get them set up. But for the ones that want kind of a diversified portfolio, we're much higher than the average investment advisor as far as our Bitcoin allocations. And I'm actually kind of proud of that because I think it's obviously the way to generate alpha for the coming decade or more.”
2022-02-02 · We Study Billionaires · BTC063: Potential Economic Tightening & Bitcoin w/ Dr. Jeff Ross (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT