YouSaid · the spoken record

Jeffrey Currie

lines on the record: 15
first: 2025-10-28
most recent: 2025-10-28
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

Every line below is reproduced as it was said and linked to the record it came from. Nothing here is summarised or generated. Directory · Search · Corrections

“So, our main message for investors remains diversifying into commodities, especially gold, while our base case outlook for commodity initiatives doesn't show large positive returns with large upside concentrated in gold and U.S. natural gas. We do think the attractiveness of commodities in portfolios is really for the risk cases. One key risk is the debasement risk. The concern that fiscal policy may be on an unsustainable path in several countries, the possibility that central banks' independence may be challenged. In those situations, I think there's even more upside to precious metal prices, especially gold, than in our base case. The other risk is that countries increasingly could use commodities as geopolitical and economic leverage. We're seeing it with rare earths, Russia sanctions on oil suggest that oil could potentially also be used the form of economic and geopolitical leverage. And with commodity supply becoming increasingly concentrated, often in geopolitical or trade dispute hotspots,”
2025-10-28 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Gold, Oil, and Rare Earths: Commodities on the Move · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And it's just a fascinating reminder that when you're talking about commodities, you're talking about physical assets. And so a lot of the price action and volatility really depends on where those commodities live and are flowing.”
2025-10-28 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Gold, Oil, and Rare Earths: Commodities on the Move · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Year, a lot of the silver had gone to the US ahead of a potential US tariff. And so you ran out of silver in the London market, and that created an enormous amount of upward pressure on silver prices. Now metal is flowing in into the London market because of relative price differences. So that squeeze that tightness is unwinding and that's amplifying the sell-off in the silver market. We don't see this in the gold market. Big picture, I think the outlook for gold is structurally more attractive, less risky, whereas for silver, my base case is upside. but a lot more volatility and two-sided risks.”
2025-10-28 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Gold, Oil, and Rare Earths: Commodities on the Move · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So, I think the commonality is that Fed cuts make it more attractive to invest in non-yielding assets such as gold and silver. And so we expect that additional ETF inflows as the Fed cuts by another 100 basis points over the next three quarters probably puts upward pressure on ETF buying of silver in there from the price. However, I think the list of differences is longer than the list of similarities. Number one, there is no central bank anchor under silver price. Central banks, they buy gold. They don't buy silver. Second, while the gold market is quite modest compared to the treasury market or the stock market, the silver market is even nine times smaller than the gold market. So it's less liquid, it's smaller, it's a much riskier. And third, a bit of a technical point. Some of the very sharp rally we saw this summer and in the start of the fall in the silver market was driven by what we call the London squeeze. There was basically a lack of silver in the London physical market because earlier...”
2025-10-28 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Gold, Oil, and Rare Earths: Commodities on the Move · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And you made that point before in the podcast, but I think it's very important to reinforce it that this is a structural story of strategic reallocation towards goal. This is not a bunch of hedge funds or retail investors.”
2025-10-28 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Gold, Oil, and Rare Earths: Commodities on the Move · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I think the short explanation is prices have just gone a little bit too quickly and ran a little bit ahead of fundamentals. We did see some correction in more speculative positioning, long positioning, especially in the call options market. And if you look at open interest, a proxy for a speculative investor's positioning that has come off quite a bit. Our conviction, however, has not changed. We continue to expect gold to rise to 4,900 per trunce by the end of next year because we do think that most of the rally year to date, or in fact over the last two years, is by sticky purchases, especially of central banks. We think they will continue to diversify into gold. This is a multi-year bull market. And in fact, the risk to our bullish forecast, I think, are to the upside because we don't incorporate upside from what we call private sector diversification. For instance, sovereign wealth funds or pension funds realizing that gold is a strategic asset that has a place in portfolios or bullish forecast does not incorporate”
2025-10-28 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Gold, Oil, and Rare Earths: Commodities on the Move · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“They're still up to very significant extents a year to date, but it's very much a policy driven market on the headline specifically. I think ultimately the final contours of any US-China trade deal still have to be signed off by the two respective presidents. And I don't think this issue is going to go away anytime soon. Because as we discussed, rare earths and magnets are extremely critical for some of the most strategic sectors. Second, China's dominance is truly massive. 92% of refining of rare earths in the world happens in China. 98% of the magnets production in the world happens in China. And third, it's going to take years to build up independent supply chains in the West, building a refinery of where it takes about five years or so. Some of the heavy rare earths deposits are extremely scarce outside of China and Myanmar, and it takes about 10 years to build a mine. So I think this issue is going to stay with us and with investors for years to come.”
2025-10-28 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Gold, Oil, and Rare Earths: Commodities on the Move · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“This is a very headline driven situation, right? Because we got a headline in the last 24 hours that talks between China and the US are taking a more favorable tone. And we've actually seen those equities selling off.”
2025-10-28 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Gold, Oil, and Rare Earths: Commodities on the Move · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Mostly to equities markets as opposed to commodity markets. Yes, some of these rare earth commodities they trade, but they trade in the China exchange. And in fact, when China restricts exports or has more supply in the domestic market, these prices, they don't spike. In contrast, you have some Australian, some Canadians, some Western companies active in this supply chain, miners, refiners that tend to perform very well when there are concerns about China restricting supply of rare earths.”
2025-10-28 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Gold, Oil, and Rare Earths: Commodities on the Move · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, so there's a bit of a paradox. It's an incredibly small market, about 33 times smaller than the copper market in terms of the value of global production in 2024. On the other hand, this market is extremely critical to produce defense goods, to produce advanced computer chips, batteries, low carbon energy solutions. It's really an extremely important input, but the market itself is very small and at a high level, I think is the one area where China has the greatest leverage across a range of potential policy tools.”
2025-10-28 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Gold, Oil, and Rare Earths: Commodities on the Move · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So let's pivot and talk about another major area of focus, rare earth minerals. They have obviously become a flashpoint in global trade and geopolitics. First, just give us some perspective and context and size them up for us.”
2025-10-28 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Gold, Oil, and Rare Earths: Commodities on the Move · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“We are also seeing very significant inventory builds in the last few months, which we didn't see yet over the summer, which is ultimately the driver of our bearish call driven by strong supply growth and inventory builds. And I think third, some investors may have inferred from some of the events this year that the US administration may escalate to eventually de-escalate.”
2025-10-28 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Gold, Oil, and Rare Earths: Commodities on the Move · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I don't think so. It was indeed a big move. We rose about $5 per barrel based on a model that corresponds to the market upgrading its estimate of the chance of a large one and a half million barrels per day disruption by 60% points. So that's a pretty big change. That said, I don't think the market reaction was outsized. In fact, if we go back to the summer when we had attacks on Iran, the price increase was three times bigger. And the cost of upside protection call options rose much more than it has over the past week. And in fact, the oil price level is now pretty much in line with what Fundamentals would suggest in terms of where are the global and OECD inventory levels. And so the question is, why is the market reaction more muted than in June? I think some of it has to do with the fact that the tail is less extreme. In the summer, we're thinking about a tail scenario where a closure of the Strait of Hermoz would reduce global supply by 20%. Today we're talking about potentially an upside of 3% disruptions.”
2025-10-28 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Gold, Oil, and Rare Earths: Commodities on the Move · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So, the two largest Russian oil producers, Ross Neft and Luke Oil, got hit with fresh sanctions by the US. Together, those oil companies have been exporting 3 million barrels per day of oil year to date. That's a lot of oil, roughly 3% of the global market. Our simulation suggests that prices could end up almost $20 per barrel higher in 2026 if you were to see a sustained and large disruption in the export volumes from those two companies assuming other OPEC plus producers like Saudi Arabia don't fill in the shortfall. In practice, we think the impact will be likely more limited to global oil imports because Core OPEC has spare capacity to offset some of the shortfall. I would expect some of the buyers of Russian crude to get exemptions via licenses. And third, trade networks often get reorganized in the aftermath of sanctions. Perhaps some of the Russian oil will flow via non-sanctioned companies very much as what we”
2025-10-28 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Gold, Oil, and Rare Earths: Commodities on the Move · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“We've seen some really significant moves in the commodity markets of late. Crude oil is rising on the back of new US sanctions on Russia. Rare earth minerals are playing a central role in U.S.-China tensions, and gold has given back some of the huge gains it's made this year. So what's ahead for these markets, and how can commodities fit into portfolios today? I'm Alison Nathan, and this is Goldman Sachs Exchanges. This week I'm joined by Don Strovan, co head of Commodities Research in Goldman Sachs Research. Don, welcome back to the program.”
2025-10-28 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Gold, Oil, and Rare Earths: Commodities on the Move · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT