YouSaid · the spoken record

Jeremy Bowen

lines on the record: 28
first: 2024-11-04
most recent: 2024-11-04
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

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“Event and something we haven't spoken about is Benjamin Netanyahu's personal motivations for continuing this war. This is a prime minister who has, gosh, I can't remember right now how many indictments against him within the Israeli system. He has been personally damaged by October 7th, ignoring the intelligence, ignoring the reports that were coming in from the Israeli women on the border, reporting about the Hamas activities that were taking place. He is looking to rehabilitate himself and he's looking to survive. And you know what? He's doing a good job in saving himself from indictment and protecting his legacy as a security leader, what he is not doing a good job is saving Israel's reputation internationally and thinking about the longer-term security of Israel. So I'm very pessimistic about where this is going. And it's not about the tunnels. This is about something deeper.”
2024-11-04 · Intelligence Squared · Jeremy Bowen: Making Sense of the Modern Middle East, Part Two · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I don't have the details, and if I had the intelligence, I probably wouldn't be allowed to say, since most of my conversations are under the Chatham House rule or even one layer behind. But I would say that Israel's war objectives have yet to be met. It wants to bring home the hostages, it wants to eradicate Hamas and the access of resistance, and it wants to address its security. Twelve months on, 42,000 people have died in Gaza. 101 hostages remain held and left behind, and Hamas continues to be active in the north of Gaza. Hundred and one people just died. So the war is continuing because tactically Israel is looking to kill Hamas's leadership, but the war will not end until there is something beyond this tactical military.”
2024-11-04 · Intelligence Squared · Jeremy Bowen: Making Sense of the Modern Middle East, Part Two · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Just quickly, also, I mean, this word is being executed using new technology, AI. The mode of war is also changing. And this is having very deep consequences on populations across the Middle East. My colleagues and friends living with drones buzzing over their heads constantly under this sort of trauma of what's coming next, there's not precision in this war. There's a huge human cost that we have to think about. And I think the rules of law will be adjusted in the same way that they have been in past conventions, Geneva, Vienna, every time there is a war. It just, again, needs momentum and leadership to consider the implications.”
2024-11-04 · Intelligence Squared · Jeremy Bowen: Making Sense of the Modern Middle East, Part Two · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“of these institutions does, I think, have a broader impact in managing diplomacy and thinking about the effectiveness of the court system, the international court system. So, you know, that's all I have to say on it. I can just see it breaking in little pieces slowly, hopefully there will be some leaders at some point that will think about how to put these institutions back together.”
2024-11-04 · Intelligence Squared · Jeremy Bowen: Making Sense of the Modern Middle East, Part Two · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Sure. Without speaking of specifics, I think what we are seeing is a fracturing of the international order. This is certainly been underway over the past year across the Middle East with real damage to the UN, but it hasn't begun with this war and this conflict. The UN Security Council, but more broadly, the institutions that had been set up after World War II are not functioning in the way that they had been intended, and that speaks to great power competition and dysfunction at multiple layers, new blocks of power, frustrations, to be very simplistic between the global north and the south, greater agency coming from different parts of the world. I don't know how it's going to be resolved, but certainly the fraction.”
2024-11-04 · Intelligence Squared · Jeremy Bowen: Making Sense of the Modern Middle East, Part Two · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“There is a degree of hubris and arrogance with the Israeli operation where Benjamin Netanyahu is appealing to the Lebanese people to overthrow Hezbollah and that slightly undermines an awareness of the complexities of the Lebanese system and the loyalty and nationalism and diversity of the Lebanese population. So this is bringing out a lot of complex dynamics. Hezbollah can't be eradicated through the barrel of a gun because as James said, it has a civil society actor and a political actor and all of the other actors in the Lebanese system are now jockeying for power and influence in this moment of instability. So we will have to see how things fall. But Hezbollah, as it has in the past, has always found a way to recapitalize because the system in Lebanon is weak and fragile. And there is a constituency for Hezbollah in Lebanon.”
2024-11-04 · Intelligence Squared · Jeremy Bowen: Making Sense of the Modern Middle East, Part Two · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“War basically gradually Hezwillah pushed itself closer and closer to the Israeli border so certainly it wants to have this buffer zone not on its own territory but on Lebanese territory the broader consequence here is the people where almost a million people have been displaced across the country banks are being targeted hospitals are being targeted and the system in Lebanon is fragile”
2024-11-04 · Intelligence Squared · Jeremy Bowen: Making Sense of the Modern Middle East, Part Two · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I agree with everything James said, and I would just say to answer the question on goals, Israel is trying to obviously make sure that October 7th never reoccurs. And it's important to remember that on October 8th, Hezbollah decided to launch rockets into Israel connecting its long-standing opposition to Israel with the attacks on October 7th. And so it made itself a party to the conflict. Perhaps this is going to be going down in the history books as a historic mistake and one that the Lebanese people had no choice in. But ultimately what Israel is seeking is to create a buffer between the Israeli border and the Latani River per UN Security Council resolution 1701 and after the last”
2024-11-04 · Intelligence Squared · Jeremy Bowen: Making Sense of the Modern Middle East, Part Two · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Through a lot of pressure and bullying has travelled around the Middle East now, the Iranian foreign minister has more stamps in his passport than I think he's ever had in his life. And he's even been to Bahrain, a country that has no direct diplomatic ties with Iran today, and basically told the Arab states, if you support an attack on our infrastructure, if you help Israel in any way, we will attack your infrastructure, like the Iranians did in 2019 when the Saudi oil facilities were attacked in Aprik and Jores. So it's expected that it will be a military target or a variety of military targets. And if that happens and if it's proportional, I suspect the Iranians will find a way to climb down Iran very oddly since October 7th has made it very clear that all they care about is to avoid a broader war.”
2024-11-04 · Intelligence Squared · Jeremy Bowen: Making Sense of the Modern Middle East, Part Two · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“The question is, of course, relevant because we've been waiting for this attack for 21 days, or at least I have. Every morning I check my phone and it hasn't happened. So much depends on what the Israelis do and how the Israelis do it. We have a sense, as Jeremy explained, that the Israelis don't plan to attack Iran's nuclear facilities. Why? Because more likely the Iranians have made it clear that if you hit our nuclear facilities, we will take our very advanced nuclear program and begin the weaponization process. They will leave the nonproliferation treaty and create a global sort of nuclear crisis. So they've checkmated Israel in that way for now. The idea of pushing back against targeting Iranian oil infrastructure was definitely on the table. Currently off the table because the Iranians”
2024-11-04 · Intelligence Squared · Jeremy Bowen: Making Sense of the Modern Middle East, Part Two · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Multiple crises, mutual antagonism with the West shared, sanctioned situation has grown a stronger political security and military relationship. And so, you know, Russia tries to have it all and at the same time doesn't really have to spend too much capital.”
2024-11-04 · Intelligence Squared · Jeremy Bowen: Making Sense of the Modern Middle East, Part Two · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Briefly on Russia is not a huge player but relevant, relevant because obviously it has dynamic relations across the Middle East and it sees the Middle East as an opportunity or a playing ground where it can sort of poke holes at the Western strategy, let's say with regards to Ukraine. Russia has a foothold in Syria, which is historical trying to always get to that warm water port on the Mediterranean, for example, and it has important ties with the Gulf countries because of their OPEC relationships and managing pricing. Most of the Middle East maintains some dialogue with Russia because they want to make sure Russia is not a spoiler. The country that has the strongest, albeit transactional relationship with Russia is Iran, that through”
2024-11-04 · Intelligence Squared · Jeremy Bowen: Making Sense of the Modern Middle East, Part Two · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And the region is moving into a bit more of a mature phase in managing bilateral and multilateral relationships that doesn't look to religion or doesn't look to blame the West. And perhaps this can lead to a bit more Middle East agency in managing some of these conflicts.”
2024-11-04 · Intelligence Squared · Jeremy Bowen: Making Sense of the Modern Middle East, Part Two · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Quickly, I try to, and like Jeremy, I think religion is very much instrumentalized by political leaders in the Middle East, and certainly Israel is a Jewish state, and you have many countries across the region that identify as religious states leaders in the Middle East have long instrumentalized religion for their political purposes. So we did go through a phase of sectarianism between Sunni and Shia. Thankfully, that's over. And we're in a post-sectarian phase. I think this is another bit of good news, that despite this year of conflict, you know, for the past few years, we have seen an unprecedented level of regional de-escalation between Iran and the Gulf states, Turkey and the Gulf, the Abrahamic Cords. These are not complete packaged up presence that resolve Middle East conflicts. But all of this kind of rapprochement has held over this past year.”
2024-11-04 · Intelligence Squared · Jeremy Bowen: Making Sense of the Modern Middle East, Part Two · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“The population of the Middle East in a way that I have never seen, and it's created depolarization and politicization that I think will have a very long tail, not necessarily always through the threat of extremism, although that's happening, but also in perhaps political changes across societies where you have young people re-engaged in politics and caring about regional conflicts. And that is putting pressure on even leaders like Mohammed bin Salman in Saudi Arabia, like the Crown Prince or the King of Jordan. So, you know, dynamics will change as a result of this year.”
2024-11-04 · Intelligence Squared · Jeremy Bowen: Making Sense of the Modern Middle East, Part Two · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I'm not an expert on education, but I would just say that certainly education systems are critical in creating national identities and embedding traumas, and this can happen everywhere. It's not just an Israeli situation. It's an everywhere situation. But more broadly, the issue of radicalization is something we have to think about. This war has animated”
2024-11-04 · Intelligence Squared · Jeremy Bowen: Making Sense of the Modern Middle East, Part Two · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“That exist. And so whatever comes next, if we can imagine what comes next, a situation has to be more balanced. And perhaps this time round, again, trying to be a bit more optimistic and forward-looking, it does appear that Arab states in the region are much more willing to scaffold a process and be much more supportive of a Palestinian authority or a revised Palestinian Authority in what comes next. Why is this important? Because the entire region has also been traumatized by October 7th and the past 12 months. And there is a real acute awareness across the Middle East that regional stability is conditioned on the issue of Palestinian statehood. This is important for FDI to come to Saudi Arabia. This is important for the managing of the access of resistance.”
2024-11-04 · Intelligence Squared · Jeremy Bowen: Making Sense of the Modern Middle East, Part Two · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I think it's very much the latter. And obviously in two societies where there is little or no trust, you do have to have incremental steps. I think that Obviously, in Israel at the time, there was not a referendum taken on Oslo, right? If you have popular buy-in, then the killing of Rabin wouldn't derail the process. Obviously, hindsight is very reflective in 2020. I think if we can imagine a future process and a future political settlement, Oslo serves as an important foundation for what to do differently. And I think that there needs to be guarantees on both sides, certainly Israel continues to be the stronger partner, but the structural imbalances of the Oslo process have created a situation where the Palestinian Authority is fully dependent, if not, and this is what Palestinians often say, complicit in the imbalance.”
2024-11-04 · Intelligence Squared · Jeremy Bowen: Making Sense of the Modern Middle East, Part Two · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Beginning to have conversations about the future, the horizon. And those conversations are not taking place because obviously the strategy, there is no strategy, to be honest, their tactics. But those conversations about the horizon need to happen for Israel to have security.”
2024-11-04 · Intelligence Squared · Jeremy Bowen: Making Sense of the Modern Middle East, Part Two · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I think that killing Sinoir Nasralla and sort of the military victories aren't going to produce the security that Israel needs in order not just to survive as a military garrison state, but as a successfully economic, politically, at peace state. And it's a bigger vision that currently the Israeli leadership isn't prepared to engage in. Obviously, we've heard that Netanyahu hasn't been visionary in this regard, but I think more broadly, we have seen leaders in the past that have made bold decisions, whether it's in 1979 where Menachen Begin signed the Camp David Accords, whether it's Ariel Charon, a big right-winger who withdrew from Gaza. Certainly these had consequences. And it's about”
2024-11-04 · Intelligence Squared · Jeremy Bowen: Making Sense of the Modern Middle East, Part Two · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Well, I think October 7th didn't happen in a vacuum. And I think Jeremy echoed that. Certainly Israelis, many of whom I know, are feeling very insecure in this moment. The trauma of October 7th was unprecedented, and I'm certain it will be generational. You have economy that's in free fall, a society that has been mobilized militarily, and many Israelis that are leaving because they're thinking about their future in a very hostile neighborhood. And they are worried about the basics that we think are so important.”
2024-11-04 · Intelligence Squared · Jeremy Bowen: Making Sense of the Modern Middle East, Part Two · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“It can be a confederation. It can be a two state settlement. But if it continues on this path, Israel will be a tactical, victorious power in the region, but it will be strategically isolated. And that, I don't think, guarantees Israel its safety.”
2024-11-04 · Intelligence Squared · Jeremy Bowen: Making Sense of the Modern Middle East, Part Two · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“That is less conflict driven. And Israel has refused to move forward on that strategy because it's predicated on the condition of a credible irrevocable pathway to a Palestinian state. And this is now written in the FT. It has been said publicly by the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia and that normalization will come at the end of this process. So Israel has a choice. It can bomb Gaza to smithereens, but it is still fighting Hamas. It is engaging in a very, very dangerous war in Lebanon trying to rewrite the balance of power, but not fully aware of the complications on the ground in Lebanon. And it wants to make its borders safe. And I'm conscious of that security dilemma. But, you know, ultimately it is going to require a peace settlement and it can be a one-state settlement.”
2024-11-04 · Intelligence Squared · Jeremy Bowen: Making Sense of the Modern Middle East, Part Two · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“The burden, its geography, its demography, and its unwillingness to share the land. Certainly there are other sides and there's responsibility given to the Palestinians and the Arabs in the neighborhood. So please know that I see that. The only way really forward for Israel to address its security crisis is to think beyond the drone and the missile and the gun and to think about a political process, one that is certainly going to be difficult, one that requires months, if not years of negotiation. But we also know, and we've learned this over the past year, that Arab states, and particularly Saudi Arabia, but more broadly, many countries around the Middle East have dangled the prospect of Israeli integration, normalization into the Middle East, thinking about a better future.”
2024-11-04 · Intelligence Squared · Jeremy Bowen: Making Sense of the Modern Middle East, Part Two · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“James is quite right. That is the reality on the ground. There is no partnership or discussion for peace. And Israel, certainly, but also in Palestine. The reality though is that Israel cannot be a garrison state, the iron wall model hasn't worked for Israel. It has fought for our Israeli wars, five wars against Hamas, two three wars in Lebanon, and it continues to bear.”
2024-11-04 · Intelligence Squared · Jeremy Bowen: Making Sense of the Modern Middle East, Part Two · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Have responsibility here. They too have been working behind the scenes over the past year. They have been pushing for a ceasefire. They are under significant pressure from their domestic populations, but they've also been unable to bring about any conversation or focus on ceasefires and day afters. So this is a bit more of a international effort that we need. It's leaving it to the region where the power imbalances are so off doesn't quite think of the long-term stability of the many countries now involved and it certainly neglects the impact on people that are bearing inordinate amount of suffering.”
2024-11-04 · Intelligence Squared · Jeremy Bowen: Making Sense of the Modern Middle East, Part Two · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Cannot deliver peace, and that is clear over the past year. President Biden, while standing sentry and being so instrumental in providing Israel with all of the security that it needed up until today and at risk of his successor's administration, hasn't been able to deliver a ceasefire, hasn't brought the hostages back home, hasn't delivered continued humanitarian relief. So what we do need is actually a concert of relevant actors, and this includes the United Kingdom, but other countries in Europe that can support the process and think about the future perhaps in more creative ways than dusting off the last proposal that was in the drawer in all of the foreign offices around the world. This is on the West because it does impact our security. It does impact our domestic politics. But I would also say that Middle Eastern states also”
2024-11-04 · Intelligence Squared · Jeremy Bowen: Making Sense of the Modern Middle East, Part Two · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Think that we have to see it as it is, not how we want it to be. And everyone has Their view the region, those that are close to the West, particularly the United States, that is by all accounts the most influential player in the region, Israel and the Gulf states, for example, are clinging to Western power and influence, looking for greater security and support. And that, of course, shows you how instrumental the United States is, but at the same time that the US is not a balanced player in the Middle East. And I like to quote a colleague of mine in the United States, Aaron David Miller, who was a negotiator in many of the Arab-Israeli-Palestinian-Israeli efforts, who says that the United States has served as Israel's lawyer and hasn't been a fair player in arbitrating, particularly in this conflict between Israel and the Palestinians. So my view and based on a lot of research is that the United States on its own”
2024-11-04 · Intelligence Squared · Jeremy Bowen: Making Sense of the Modern Middle East, Part Two · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT