YouSaid · the spoken record

Jeremy Josse

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119
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2026-06-25
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2026-06-25
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  1. “And at 10 times income, a reasonable young couple are in big trouble. They can't really afford to buy a house. And that same high prices are reflected in rents. So they're really squeezed on living costs. And the same is true even worse in China, in Canada, Australia, most of Europe. House prices have simply been allowed to go up for the last 34. They didn't, you know, traditionally they traded flat or down 60, 70, 80 years until 1994 in the UK, but since then, house prices have risen everywhere.”

    2026-06-25 · The Diary of a CEO · Billionaire's WARNING: I'm SELLING. The Crash Is Already Here! · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  2. “Property is fine, except it's pretty darn expensive by historical standards. They've engineered a situation where house prices tend to rise. Great for the people who have a house and terrible for the people who would like to buy a house. Back in 94 in England, a typical house sold for 3.4 times your family income. That was about as low as it had been for fifty years. And then from 94 until today, it rose from 3.4 times to over 10 times, depending on where you live.”

    2026-06-25 · The Diary of a CEO · Billionaire's WARNING: I'm SELLING. The Crash Is Already Here! · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  3. “What you're doing actually have distributed it to the market and you're acquiring it. You're not actually giving them incremental money. They come to the market with $10 billion in a particular bond with a particular coupon. It says, we will pay you three and a half percent. That's the coupon. And when you want to buy some of that bond, you go to your broker and he says it's no longer selling at the original hundred. It's now selling at 92 or 107 and you pay that and it transfers from one owner to you. There have been times in 1974 when you could get a bond that would pay 8, 9, 10%. Yes, Payer.”

    2026-06-25 · The Diary of a CEO · Billionaire's WARNING: I'm SELLING. The Crash Is Already Here! · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  4. “Yeah, a bond is a loan that carries a fixed interest rate, let's say today 5%. You invest your money in it and it will pay you 5% as long as the credit worthiness of the other side is there. So if it's the US government, you'll assume it's pretty credit worthy and you buy a bond from the US government. It's how the U.S. government funds a part of its activities. You can buy a 30-year US government bond, a 10-year bond, a two-year bond, a 90-day treasury bill, they call them when they get that short. Everything goes fine. You receive this modest amount of money. You're 5% or you're 3%, depending on the conditions.”

    2026-06-25 · The Diary of a CEO · Billionaire's WARNING: I'm SELLING. The Crash Is Already Here! · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  5. “The high flyers will lay people off, and a lot of people will feel less rich. And as you acquire money in the stock market, a small fraction of that, 2% or 3%, is spent. And in reverse, It goes back and people feel a little bit poorer, they spend a little less. So the economy tends to be under some stress. And if you look at the great bubbles breaking of the past, you find that it's followed by really tough times. 1929 is followed by the Great Depression that lasts for several years. And of course, there are many other factors that go into that. But it started with the crash in the market, which was in the end down about 80% or more. And then the next one was called the Nifty 50 because it was the 50 great companies like IBM and Coca-Cola. And that was in 1972 it peaked. It declined by 65% if you were just for inflation. The recession associated with that was just about the worst since the Depression.”

    2026-06-25 · The Diary of a CEO · Billionaire's WARNING: I'm SELLING. The Crash Is Already Here! · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  6. “And for a second Japan sold for more than the US in eighty nine, and it got to 65 times earnings, which means for every dollar of earnings, you have $65 of market value. And the US went to $35 in the tech bubble of 2000. You could argue depending on how you do it, that it's $35 or $40 today, but it's not 65. So we have seen a much bigger bubble in Japan. And what happened? It went up and up and up, and then it came down for 20 years.”

    2026-06-25 · The Diary of a CEO · Billionaire's WARNING: I'm SELLING. The Crash Is Already Here! · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  7. “Yeah. And you have to remember the tech bubble, the Nasdaq, which is an index of the growth stocks, came down 82%. It is far from unprecedented to have these major declines. And the biggest bubble in history was in the Japanese stock market in 1989. Back then, Japan seemed to rule the world all the technology, all the Toyotas were kicking bottoms in General Motors and so on. And everyone bragged about their 12-inch Sony TV in the kitchen and the quality, etc., etc., little things you put on your belt to play music, they were all Japanese.”

    2026-06-25 · The Diary of a CEO · Billionaire's WARNING: I'm SELLING. The Crash Is Already Here! · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  8. “The stocks that have gone up the most, AI and the more exciting stocks with the biggest moves, historically, would be expected to come down the most. From these unprecedented levels, a 70% decline would not be unexpected”

    2026-06-25 · The Diary of a CEO · Billionaire's WARNING: I'm SELLING. The Crash Is Already Here! · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  9. “It's called the Grantham Foundation for the Protection of the Environment. We invest a lot of our principle in green tech to help combat climate change.”

    2026-06-25 · The Diary of a CEO · Billionaire's WARNING: I'm SELLING. The Crash Is Already Here! · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  10. “I'm generally referred to as a billionaire, but that's only because they count the money you give away, because I've given over 90% of my billion away to a foundation.”

    2026-06-25 · The Diary of a CEO · Billionaire's WARNING: I'm SELLING. The Crash Is Already Here! · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  11. “Yes, 165 billion I had two partners, Mayo and Banotalo, and when the smoke cleared, you know, I'd made a lot of money over a billion dollars.”

    2026-06-25 · The Diary of a CEO · Billionaire's WARNING: I'm SELLING. The Crash Is Already Here! · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  12. “Well, I got into the investment business in nineteen sixty eight, there were very few serious people in the investment business. There were no mathematical models. There were kind of relatively failed sons of rich people who would work for JP Morgan. And then over the next 10 years, it began to get a little more serious. T-Ro Price introduced the idea of growth stocks, a few of us introduced the idea of value stocks, and a few years later, at my first firm Battery March, we really introduced the idea of small cap. It hadn't existed.”

    2026-06-25 · The Diary of a CEO · Billionaire's WARNING: I'm SELLING. The Crash Is Already Here! · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  13. “If you look at the data, it would be compatible with history for the peak to be very soon. Everything is in line. This is, I think, the biggest investment bubble in American history. The indicators of pure, crazy euphoria like SpaceX are all over the place. SpaceX defines as its addressable market a quarter of the global GDP. It talks about endless opportunities mining asteroids. It will be in 50 years, in 100 years, people will look back and tell stories about SpaceX and its prospectus, like they tell stories about the South Sea bubble. You know, an enterprise of such enormous value, but it cannot at this time be revealed.”

    2026-06-25 · The Diary of a CEO · Billionaire's WARNING: I'm SELLING. The Crash Is Already Here! · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  14. “In'99 Amazon went up six or seven times, in the crash in the tech bubble, it went down ninety two percent. As I like to say, check it at such a remarkably large number. And then out of the wreckage, it inherited the retail world. And that's how it works. The greater the idea, the more obvious the idea, the more money goes in, and the bigger the bubble and the bigger the bust.”

    2026-06-25 · The Diary of a CEO · Billionaire's WARNING: I'm SELLING. The Crash Is Already Here! · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  15. “Well, first of all, let me say, I think artificial intelligence is right up there with the railroads, it's one of the defining great ideas of the last couple of hundred years. It's going to change everything. And that is critical. If you mean to have a bubble, people think that a bubble is mainly because it's a scam and nothing could be further from the truth. The great bubbles always occur around the very most important ideas. So the railroads, everyone could see that it would change the world. And everyone wanted to put their money in. And everybody put their money in. They overinvested. And even though the railroads were a spectacularly powerful idea, the railroads collapsed as stocks and everybody lost a ton of dough. The same with the internet. And then out of the wreckage, the railroads changed the world and the internet changed the world. What we have to remember”

    2026-06-25 · The Diary of a CEO · Billionaire's WARNING: I'm SELLING. The Crash Is Already Here! · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  16. “I can't think I ever do introduce myself professionally, but I think of myself as specializing in a longer term horizon Most people and trying to look at a higher and higher level of abstraction, what is really going on here, and what are people missing? I've discovered over decades that humans are incredibly short-term oriented and that they have an enormous predisposition to optimism. They're looking for optimistic news in everything. They're looking to avoid unpleasantness. The idea that you can have steady compound growth is ridiculous. One of my few heroes, Kenneth Bolding, an economist. He said the only people who think you can have compound growth on a finite planet are madmen and economists, which is so accurate. Economists simply believe you can have growth always, and everything comes down to just price.”

    2026-06-25 · The Diary of a CEO · Billionaire's WARNING: I'm SELLING. The Crash Is Already Here! · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  17. “I will go through everything, but you will not receive this advice from investment advisors because they lose a lot of business.”

    2026-06-25 · The Diary of a CEO · Billionaire's WARNING: I'm SELLING. The Crash Is Already Here! · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  18. “Yes, and bubbles always occur around the very most important ideas. So the railroads everyone could see that it would change the world. The same with the internet. And everyone wanted to put their money in. And so they overinvested. But this is the problem. Eventually, they lost. And if you look at the great bubbles breaking of the past, you find that it's followed by really tough times, a miserable period for the economy. And the bigger the bubble, the bigger the bust. And now we're in the biggest investment bubble that arguably has ever occurred, AI.”

    2026-06-25 · The Diary of a CEO · Billionaire's WARNING: I'm SELLING. The Crash Is Already Here! · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  19. “Good luck. The SpaceX is such a fabulous DS story, and we can go into that. It's an unnecessary piece of nonsense that facilitates nothing except criminals moving money that they can't be seen”

    2026-06-25 · The Diary of a CEO · Billionaire's WARNING: I'm SELLING. The Crash Is Already Here! · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT