YouSaid · the spoken record

Jessy Gilger

lines on the record: 41
first: 2025-03-19
most recent: 2025-03-19
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

Every line below is reproduced as it was said and linked to the record it came from. Nothing here is summarised or generated. Directory · Search · Corrections

“Because, well, why didn't we get the SBR pump? Why aren't we above 130K? Why aren't we doing this? The reality is that you have a levered market across the risk complex. And when a huge chunk of it, like the S&P, the gold standard of this time, starts to sell off, it's going to pull Bitcoin down. Bitcoin cannot, it's not strong enough. It's not big enough and not liquid enough to just stand on its own in the face of what you were showing Preston, which is like really strong headwinds of global sell-offs. Take advantage of that. Use that within reason. I don't recommend leverage, but there are people out there that have been waiting for a good entry. And yeah, can Bitcoin go to Hoddl's target of 55K in the next week? I don't know. But even if it doesn't, right, these prices are great. I think I was excited. I was buying Bitcoin, bought full disclosure, and I hadn't bought some since I think the 40 to 50k range before, but I've been deploying capital. And I'm excited. I don't think the pessimism is justified. We still have a strong economy. And eventually, the president's going to settle down and we're going to get going again.”
2025-03-19 · We Study Billionaires · BTC226: Bitcoin Mastermind Discussion Q1 2025 (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, you can Google my name Joe Carlosari and you see my firm website if you have a litigated matter. I've got tons of cases, but I will absolutely talk to you. And if I don't know how to help you, I can definitely refer you to the right person. But I want to leave you with something important here, which is that I do believe that some of the pullback in Bitcoin is clearly due to the macro complex, this broad sell-off of risk assets. There are just fund managers that dump it all when the price is moving against you. So you should look at that if you're listening to this as an amazing opportunity. I feel bad when I see people.”
2025-03-19 · We Study Billionaires · BTC226: Bitcoin Mastermind Discussion Q1 2025 (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Basically, been pricing in some of the growth issues we've been talking about. And I think that it's pricing in the inflation being successfully brought down closer to target. But overall, those are the three things I'm going to always be looking at on my charts.”
2025-03-19 · We Study Billionaires · BTC226: Bitcoin Mastermind Discussion Q1 2025 (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I mean, the two for me always think that there's so much signal provided by the bond market. So if you see yields getting bid hard, okay, that is telling me that is the bond market processing most likely a combination of falling inflation, but also the kicker of slower growth, which I think is concerning, right? It's always about the rate of change. So if you wake up in two weeks and the 10 year is suddenly below 37 or something. I'm like, that's real bad. Okay, that's not just inflation. There's a growth expectation that's being priced through that mechanism. That and, of course, spreads, right? I look at spreads very closely. It's on my routine checklists, on my trading view charts. I look at that, the high yield market, because that's really the first signs of stress. And you see that moving. Again, we showed the chart earlier. We don't need to bring it back up. But to me, that is in particular the key message you want to look at. And also the yield curve, right? The yield curve has been uninverted. I think that is, uh,”
2025-03-19 · We Study Billionaires · BTC226: Bitcoin Mastermind Discussion Q1 2025 (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So, no, just to pivot one second, because I always love talking to all three of you, but in particular, Dr. Jeffel, I've got him here on record. I want to know, as you're going for it for the next two weeks, we get some new data here. And just to close out with this, what are you going to look at that would give you real concern if our listeners are diving into this episode here and they look at some of the economic data that comes down? What in particular are you going to say, okay, this one's a little bit worse than I expected now? I'm flipping back to Dr. Bear.”
2025-03-19 · We Study Billionaires · BTC226: Bitcoin Mastermind Discussion Q1 2025 (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Right So others got, I think, what is it, $140 billion market cap. If they wanted to deploy, let's say, 10% of that on the lightning, how challenging do you think that would be from an engineering perspective?”
2025-03-19 · We Study Billionaires · BTC226: Bitcoin Mastermind Discussion Q1 2025 (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So, educate me on this because I had always heard right or wrong that right now lightning, although it's really promising, obviously I'm very It comes down to”
2025-03-19 · We Study Billionaires · BTC226: Bitcoin Mastermind Discussion Q1 2025 (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“This is, I think, drawing on the sentiment, right? The sentiment is really bad even in the Bitcoin circles, because if we're honest, right, a lot of quote unquote Bitcoiners, they lever up on the altcoins going into quote-unquote bull markets and the altcoin complex is just completely imploded. So those people are seeing like horrible losses across the board. They would have been better off just probably buying Bitcoin. And it even comes through some of the Bitcoin proxy plays, like the miners are just, you know, they're really struggling. Even MSTR, right? The darling of last year, man, what a brutal year so far with MSTR. Hopefully that rebounds.”
2025-03-19 · We Study Billionaires · BTC226: Bitcoin Mastermind Discussion Q1 2025 (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“We got to talk about that. I mean, that's amazing, Preston. You've been in as long as you have, right? Like the Narrative has”
2025-03-19 · We Study Billionaires · BTC226: Bitcoin Mastermind Discussion Q1 2025 (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So I don't think they make statements like that. Maybe it's kind of an insurance policy, like a hedge you're making that statement in case anything goes wrong. But they have to realize that, you know, when you make those sort of statements, people get jittery and they get a little nervous and then you get these growth scare discussions that we have on these podcasts and other podcasts. So I'm just curious, are they seeing something in the data that gives them pause where, you know, perhaps we are headed for a real strong slowdown? And if that's the case, then asset prices are going to get hit, at least in the short run. So I'm just curious if anybody believes that narrative or if, you know, I mean, when we were last talking, it seemed like Jeff, that you were more in the camp that that's real, that that's not just baseless, that we could see that sort of slow down materialize into actual growth weakness.”
2025-03-19 · We Study Billionaires · BTC226: Bitcoin Mastermind Discussion Q1 2025 (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Well, I'm just curious. Look, so we have the Treasury Secretary going out and saying that the economy has started to roll a bit, right? And I'm just quoting his statement. He's saying it's starting to roll a bit. He's also said, as have others in the administration, that, look, if we start to slow down here, if we contract or potentially head into a recession for the next six months, it's the Biden economy. It's not the Trump's economy, right? It's not Trump's economy.”
2025-03-19 · We Study Billionaires · BTC226: Bitcoin Mastermind Discussion Q1 2025 (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So, Jeff, do you or anybody else? Does anybody expect as we're sitting here March 13th, unemployment to start ratcheting up higher? I mean, there are federal jobs that are being cut, right? Like, are we going to see unemployment bearing down on 5% by the end of the year?”
2025-03-19 · We Study Billionaires · BTC226: Bitcoin Mastermind Discussion Q1 2025 (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“But the point is true, in my view, it tends to overestimate the inflation relative to CPI, not relative to overall debasement, but relative to CPI tends over. So if they're printing 1.3 or 1.4%, it could actually be lower with CPI stats. You could have CPI coming in even lower than this, which You know, fasting, but here's your transitory inflation right here.”
2025-03-19 · We Study Billionaires · BTC226: Bitcoin Mastermind Discussion Q1 2025 (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Well, Jeff, you know what's great about this chart is that so unlike the government CPI numbers, just for the listeners, this true flatlation, which we're showing the true flatlation charts, it shows that in 2022, when the Fed was doing the rapid emergency 50-bit hikes on successive basis, we got up to 11% inflation. Now, I believe, correct me if I'm wrong, the actual government stat for CPI was in the 8s. Is that right? Yeah, it was one”
2025-03-19 · We Study Billionaires · BTC226: Bitcoin Mastermind Discussion Q1 2025 (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So you see that, like, I like this jard actually. So, you're looking at basically just for the listing viewers, you see us, we're kind of basing at the all-time high back in 2021. And of course, you know, if you're holding spy, you do get a small, tiny little dividend that they pay quarterly or whatever it is, Jeff, right? What is it likely?”
2025-03-19 · We Study Billionaires · BTC226: Bitcoin Mastermind Discussion Q1 2025 (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“The other one, if you could put up, I don't know, he doesn't point it out, but put up Bitcoin against SBY. That's a fun one I look at frequently. I don't know if you can just put in the Bitcoin USD over SBY. So you're getting a context, right? So relative to people who their preferred store value is the SP 500 ETF, I think it pays an interesting picture as well.”
2025-03-19 · We Study Billionaires · BTC226: Bitcoin Mastermind Discussion Q1 2025 (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah. So the chart that I don't know if you could pull this up, Presson. It's a fun one. Kurt Demester tweets it out occasionally. So I'll credit him on it. He puts Bitcoin measured against gold, right? And you see basically there's this five-year long top, right, that we need to break through. And his view is that you need to break that top, that Bitcoin gold ratio is, there you go. You got it. Oh, you already had it ready. Okay. Yeah. So that's Bitcoin Express and Gold. So you see this like if you're 2021 or even like, say you got in 2020 right there before that top, you've been basically bouncing up against that top in real terms. That's why you put in gold as opposed to just nominal. I know true inflation says the all-time high of Bitcoin prior to the one we reached after Trump won. It was already like 76, 77. So to get back to where you were in 2021 in the spring and fall, you basically need to get to 76. So, you know, we're sitting just over 81.”
2025-03-19 · We Study Billionaires · BTC226: Bitcoin Mastermind Discussion Q1 2025 (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Oh, yeah. No, I mean, I think it isn't. I'm surprised they haven't done it so far. And yeah, I mean, I think it's one of those things where you don't see it. It doesn't get a whole lot of big headlines, but you're looking at why is the market functioning a little bit more liquid? It's got a little bit more of an implicit bid there for certain markets. One of those things that could have a big effect going on for the next six to 12 months. We also want to get some guidance from Bassin with the next QRA if he's going to finally move off the Yellen game of a lot of short-term paper. That's going to be huge, right? That's going to be a market moving event, which I'm watching closely.”
2025-03-19 · We Study Billionaires · BTC226: Bitcoin Mastermind Discussion Q1 2025 (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Percent than 2%, and you're going to have to roll a bunch of debt. So you're going to provide an implicit buyer for all these treasuries in this market, which is the banking institution. And you're telling them it's not going to hurt your liquidity ratio.”
2025-03-19 · We Study Billionaires · BTC226: Bitcoin Mastermind Discussion Q1 2025 (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So, there is a liquidity ratio that banks have to maintain. And one of the well-recorded accounts that I follow, I think I know who it is, but I'm not going to say these conks on Twitter. He's got a huge following. He's got a substack. He's talking about the rumors that he keeps hearing in some of the shakeups of the Fed and the potential that they exempt treasuries from the liquidity ratios that imposed on the banks. And if they were to do that, that would instantly improve liquidity in the system. It would create no disincentive for holding treasuries in the real rationale behind exempting treasuries because they are money good, because they're backed by the full faith and credit, why are we counting them against the liquidity ratio of the underlying institution? So if they were to do this, right, this could be one of these, he calls it a plumbing put that would be in place in the system and it could be a better way to provide liquidity to the market in an environment where you're still dealing with relatively high inflation closer to three.”
2025-03-19 · We Study Billionaires · BTC226: Bitcoin Mastermind Discussion Q1 2025 (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Well, they're going to have to do more record keeping and disclosures with respect to their holdings that we don't have as much insight. We have some sort of indications at the margins, but that's the real big one that I think that they're resisting. But you got five Democrats.”
2025-03-19 · We Study Billionaires · BTC226: Bitcoin Mastermind Discussion Q1 2025 (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Well, you saw today that the Senate banking panel advanced the stablecoin bill. It's the Genius Act, I think it's called. So that's the leading bill in Congress, which if that language passes up, Tether's going to have to comply, which is going to be a tall order. And otherwise they're kicked from U.S. exchanges. So that's a really interesting story given Tether still has a huge footprint in our space. So that's what I'm looking at right now. I want to see, you know.”
2025-03-19 · We Study Billionaires · BTC226: Bitcoin Mastermind Discussion Q1 2025 (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Initially, right? But that's I mean, I think that's dissipating with every quarter. I think it's probably the opposite now. You got to remember the banks were instrumental in getting the bill through that Biden vetoed SAP 121. So I think there's been a clear shift on Wall Street, probably with the advent of the Bitcoin ETFs, maybe even a little bit before that, where they're saying, listen, we want to co-op this space. We want to run it. We want to kick out the kids and be the adults at the table. And I think you will see that. And to do that, you got to put money behind both Democrats and Republicans to get it across the line of the Congress.”
2025-03-19 · We Study Billionaires · BTC226: Bitcoin Mastermind Discussion Q1 2025 (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“You don't really have an anti crypto lobby that's funding tons of money against it. You don't think there are any banks? The Wall Street money”
2025-03-19 · We Study Billionaires · BTC226: Bitcoin Mastermind Discussion Q1 2025 (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Keep hearing interest about a stablecoin bill. They've already held hearings about some of this stuff that I'm sure you've followed. So I think you're going to get that. And then the real question as Hoddle pointed, are we going to be able to get things through the Congress? It's still to be determined on that. I am optimistic as he is. I think that you have seen some indications from Roquahana and other Democrats in Congress saying, look, guys, you really need to stop fighting a losing fight. There's no advantage. There's John Reed Stark, who is a friend of mine. I know some people don't like him, but he will tell you there's no advantage for a congressperson to be anti-Bitcoin or anti-crypto. It's not like you get funded with a bunch of money other than maybe rip or labs. You don't get funded from a bunch of sources if you're anti-Bitcoin. So why would you be against this? You know, a lot of the other interest groups that are in Washington, there's a clear reason because there's a constituency and there's money behind it. For example, the pro-choice pro life movement, right? There's huge interest groups that donate depending on which group you affiliate with.”
2025-03-19 · We Study Billionaires · BTC226: Bitcoin Mastermind Discussion Q1 2025 (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I mean, so I think this all gets rolled into the market structure bill. Obviously, just to update the listeners, right? You know, the SEC did rescind it, right? But the SEC rescinding their bulletin, their staff bulletin, doesn't necessarily give a lot of the entities the confidence that a law would, right? And this is always the trouble because if you get guidance from IRS or you get guidance from any regulatory agency, that can change with the wind, right? That can change with every administration. And arguably a Congress can change it, right? If the Congress decides that they want to go a different route when they pass some formal market structure bill, that too can be an issue. So if you're an entrepreneur, if you're a bank, which are by their nature risk averse, you really want to see something in clear law, knowing that it will be very difficult for any subsequent administration to undo it. That gives you the confidence to go forward and actually build out whatever product you're trying to do. So to me, I think we're going to have a market structure bill. I definitely.”
2025-03-19 · We Study Billionaires · BTC226: Bitcoin Mastermind Discussion Q1 2025 (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And they talked him off of it, which is bravo again to your point about David Sachs. I just think it was like, okay, we got all these people coming from the industry. We have to give them something. We have to do something. So we're just going to label this the digital asset stockpile, which basically just does nothing. It's no different than the existing state of affairs. But now they can say, oh, there's a digital asset stockpile for the US government. They're not buying any more of it. They could still sell it. They could sell it for Bitcoin, right? There's nothing to say they can't dump all the seized Ethereum, which they should before it goes lower, and buy Bitcoin. So yeah, I mean, I just think it's hilarious.”
2025-03-19 · We Study Billionaires · BTC226: Bitcoin Mastermind Discussion Q1 2025 (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I just think it's hilarious. Like, it is an honorary mention. It's like there was this floating idea out there. I mean, even the president tweeted about acquiring in a strategic.”
2025-03-19 · We Study Billionaires · BTC226: Bitcoin Mastermind Discussion Q1 2025 (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Can I ask a question of three? Because I'm interested in this. So you have a stockpile, let's just for one second entertain this. The digital assets stockpile that is not Bitcoin. That stockpile under the executive order can be sold. There's no prohibition on selling it. So I guess my question is, what is the point of the digital assets stockpile? I mean, that was already the existing state of affairs of government seized a digital quote-unquote assets other than Bitcoin. So why did that even get included? You know what's.”
2025-03-19 · We Study Billionaires · BTC226: Bitcoin Mastermind Discussion Q1 2025 (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“That's massively bullish. And to separate out all of the other crypto assets, if you will, from that, and they're in a stockpile that can be sold. I mean, like, I honestly don't know why anybody would be upset about this. I know that the market in the short-term price action, like I said earlier, they wanted a bump. There's going to be another bidder here in an uncertain environment. Think about the confidence that gives if you're putting on big leverage positions in Bitcoin. Putting on big leverage positions, you know that the government has to come into the marketplace and buy. Of course, you're going to be bid. So I think you saw a lot of that front running positional unwind as that news dropped. But man, from a talking point standpoint, I could not be more bullish about how they execute this. I think it was a brilliant move and execution and everything. My only sort of consternation about it is that I don't think Bitcoiners realize how big of a deal this is and they weren't giving it the proper respect in terms of just our internal messaging about it to other people.”
2025-03-19 · We Study Billionaires · BTC226: Bitcoin Mastermind Discussion Q1 2025 (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“No. I think it's amazing feat. I mean, just stepping back for a second, okay? If you're in the world where you're talking to professional investors or you're talking to just regular people and you are able to use as a talking point a truthful statement that the United States has a strategic fund of Bitcoin. I don't care where it comes from. I don't care how it's funded. That narrative from a communication standpoint, from an optic standpoint, is incredibly valuable. I honestly don't think they could have done it a better way because there would have been huge fights even within the Bitcoin world, the Bitcoin community, if you will, about like, okay, should we use taxpayer money for not? Do we want the US government to have a whole bunch of Bitcoin? Do we want to be a player in the marketplace buying Bitcoin? Maybe we'll get to that bridge eventually, but we got Bitcoin that's sitting on their books, right? That is already appreciated a lot of it that has been seized. And you're going to tell you we're not going to sell this into the market. We're just going to hold it.”
2025-03-19 · We Study Billionaires · BTC226: Bitcoin Mastermind Discussion Q1 2025 (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So, this is the Bank of America high yield index options adjusted spread. This is my favorite gauge of trying to look at credit spreads and how they're produced. So you have like a five-year chart here, right? And like, yeah, it's bounced up a little bit. And what came from a historically low levels here in February and January, but you're really back to the range we were hovering in for most of the early part of 2024. And you have this, this is the carry trade blow up right here back in August, early August. you know like nothing crazy nothing just bizarre i think it's amazing how quickly narrative spread i mean i've heard this narrative that we talked about at the top of the show about oh well trump's trying to crash the economy this is all about the bond market like everybody seems to be parroting this within days and it just information travels so quick whether it's true or not right sometimes perception governs reality and that's where like the market just glabs onto it you have to trade around it if you're investing”
2025-03-19 · We Study Billionaires · BTC226: Bitcoin Mastermind Discussion Q1 2025 (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“You know what the amazing thing is, though, Preston? You've got this real sharp shelf on par with COVID type like moves, right? Very aggressive, no relief, no bounces along the way. And then I always look at some of these things like the Chicago Fed Financial Conditions Index, which you can breed the breakdown here, but they're looking at financial conditions, money market debt, equity markets as a whole. They built this model out. And you got like the reading last week. comparatively to what we went through in 2022, 2023. It's like nothing. It's like barely moved. The same thing with, I'll show you the option just Bank of America spread like that for credit spreads. People were posting today about credit spreads or blowing up. But, you know, in reality, here's the one that I want to show you. This is.”
2025-03-19 · We Study Billionaires · BTC226: Bitcoin Mastermind Discussion Q1 2025 (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So if you look at the Dixie, right, which everybody calls that the dollar, right? That's really just the exchange and it's balanced heavily with the euro. And then you have to wonder why is the euro appreciating? I think you look at the European forward expectations for growth and they explain a ton of that story, while also you have to look at European spending, right? So you're going to environment where there's going to be greater European spending, which will cause a growth impulse. And if the euro is appreciating, that's going to be the biggest single component currency of the DXY index. So to me, that explains the story. When you have the growth slowdown is really happening here in the United States and you have that juxtaposed with an acceleration or rebound in Europe triggered by excessive government spending, right? They're supplying the stimulus the same sugar bowl that the US has been addicted to for the last couple years. That can explain that differential. That can explain that growth acceleration versus a growth slowdown that you would expect the dollar to recede in the environment.”
2025-03-19 · We Study Billionaires · BTC226: Bitcoin Mastermind Discussion Q1 2025 (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I mean, look, there's a new regime in Japan, right? Like Preston, you were tweeting out about this. They've got inflation. They've got economic growth. They've got spending. And yields are headed higher. So I think it's a different era. And it's interesting to me because everybody has fixed it in the U.S. cutting cycle and rates coming down. But unlike prior period where we had this globally synchronized either growth or globally synchronized cutting, we kind of have different patches globally where you've got Japan and Germany where their bond markets are selling off. And potentially here we could see some rally in the 10-year. I don't know. I also can, you know, my base case is that we hover around these levels. I don't expect us to break down to 3.5 on the 10-year now for the next six months or a year. I think you hover in the low fours, maybe, maybe high threes if growth slows down a little bit more. But I don't know. To me, it seems like that you're stuck in a range for a while now.”
2025-03-19 · We Study Billionaires · BTC226: Bitcoin Mastermind Discussion Q1 2025 (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Oh, yeah. Did you see the German? I don't know if you could pull up a chart of German buns, the longbund, but it like, what is it? 30 year high, Jeff? I think we saw 2%”
2025-03-19 · We Study Billionaires · BTC226: Bitcoin Mastermind Discussion Q1 2025 (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So, just one thing on that a lot of the first, say, like 60 to 70 days that the Trump administration has been a lot of the, you know, you take your medicine, like here's the stick, we're cutting this, we're getting rid of this. We haven't gotten to the good stuff, right? Which is the tax cuts. And I think they did that purposely. I'd love to hear other people's thoughts. But it seems to me you would do that first, right? Before you give a massive toxic, which the media is going to run with and say he's blowing up the deficit, you kind of want to have some of this window dressing with the Doge programs that Jeff and I had talked about and all as well. So I'm curious if you guys agree with that.”
2025-03-19 · We Study Billionaires · BTC226: Bitcoin Mastermind Discussion Q1 2025 (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Was going to start the nation state arms race to acquire as much Bitcoin as possible. But overall, right, you still have historically tight spreads. You still have a very strong labor market. I mean, I shared with you guys before the podcast some of the payroll data, the tax receipts. I could see, I could point to 10 different things, but clearly the Trump volatility from the tariffs is causing a lot of consternation. People just don't know how to position for it. So overall, to me, the question is if you're really going to laser focus on where assets go from here, you have to say, are we going to run into a position where we actually get a growth scare turn into an actual growth slowdown that is manifested in labor market? Or is this going to be the thing where we were just reading something right before we came on, some reporting that, you know, some of Trump's team is saying, let's slow down the tariff talk. Let's try to save face and pivot a little bit. I tend to favor the latter. I don't think they're going to drive the plane into the mountain. Other people can feel free to disagree with me.”
2025-03-19 · We Study Billionaires · BTC226: Bitcoin Mastermind Discussion Q1 2025 (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And he gave forward guidance that he's going to continue to do the yelling game of issuing a lot of front end paper So that seems at cross purposes, right? If your goal is really to sack the economy and to flood the market with longer-term duration, that to me would be the way to do it. Because all you have to do is say, we're going to issue a ton of long-term paper. What's that going to do? That's going to send long-end yields up higher. And that is going to sack the economy. That's going to send asset prices rolling. To me, here's the real question right now. You're at a technical correction. I know that people are so used to assets only going up, but the S&P's down like 10%. Yeah. Bitcoin has had a little bit of the sell the news narrative, I think, that's coming from the SBR. I think there are very high expectations, totally unjustified because it's massively bullish, which we can get into. The fact there is a strategic Bitcoin reserve that it is only strategic interest in the United States to hold Bitcoin, not these other digital assets. That is wildly bullish. But I think the market, for whatever reason, Bitcoin-centric, thought that we're going to go in and buy, you know, a million Bitcoin.”
2025-03-19 · We Study Billionaires · BTC226: Bitcoin Mastermind Discussion Q1 2025 (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So, Bitcoin made it to all time high if memory serves on the date of the inauguration, right? And then the SP, you know, in terms of the broader risk complex, that actually made its all-time high on the 19th, the February, excuse me. So about a month after food. So the markets did have a bullish trend, not to say we were right, but I'm just saying for the point of view that we had sort of a nice little rally up across the asset classes going into the inauguration. And then in the inauguration, okay, we started to have resurgence of, I think this is really the tipping point, really growth scare. I think you saw some indicators. We can get into this, some of them. Jeff and I talked about some of those. I think those are continuing to accelerate this growth slowdown, which people had anticipated. And you're starting from a position where you have very little runway. You know, you had spreads, very tight cred spreads. I'm really skeptical, though, of the meta-narrative that is emerging that this is all about rolling treasuries. And the reason for that is because Vessant came in. And if Bessant really wanted to sack the economy, Jeff, all you need to do is look at the QRA.”
2025-03-19 · We Study Billionaires · BTC226: Bitcoin Mastermind Discussion Q1 2025 (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Okay, so if you recall, I think we had our last podcast before the actual inauguration. Is that correct? Do I have that right? No, I think it was before.”
2025-03-19 · We Study Billionaires · BTC226: Bitcoin Mastermind Discussion Q1 2025 (Bitcoin Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT