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Jim Bianco

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106
first
2023-09-15
most recent
2023-09-15
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1
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podcast

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  1. “Right, exactly. So we could look past that, sort of. You can look past it if you don't want to raise rates, but I don't think if the price of oil is up, the Fed could say we're so going to look past this that we're going to start cutting rates. It will keep them higher for longer. Because if they start cutting rates in the face of higher oil prices, they will get skewered by the media that they're not responding to inflation because the public thinks inflation is pretty much the grocery store in the gas pump.”

    2023-09-15 · Forward Guidance · Jim Bianco: No Recession, No Landing · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  2. “No, they'll respond to the core inflation number, but there's two things to keep in mind about oil. That is the basis of energy in all economies run on energy. If the price of oil stays up, and I think it will, that will eventually feed into manufacturing processes, transportation costs, things that are in core inflation. It won't be in the August number, won't be in the September number, but eventually it will filter through into some of those numbers later in the year. As far as the headline number goes, look, when you ask the average person, what's the inflation rate, they usually quote you whatever they see at the gas pump. And they'll see that oil is up. Now, economists will say, well, that's oil, that's OPAC, that's idiosyncratic to the oil market. It's not rates.”

    2023-09-15 · Forward Guidance · Jim Bianco: No Recession, No Landing · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  3. “How much does the price of oil play into oil $120 in June of last year went down to as low as $66, $67, I think, for WTI? We just checked. It's at $89. So in a few months, you've had a $20 rally. And that's such a volatile component when it comes to inflation. Do you think the Federal Reserve is going to respond to that, or are they more going to focus on that core inflation, which strips out energy and food?”

    2023-09-15 · Forward Guidance · Jim Bianco: No Recession, No Landing · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  4. “3.6, and it might even continue to trend towards 4% by the end of the year. That's what economists call a base effect because the numbers from a year ago were very low. The inflation numbers. The numbers now, because especially with oil prices up, are going to be higher. That might get the Fed to at a minimum. Dash the hopes that in 2024 there will be rate cuts, but might still see some more rate hikes into 2024. So I'm not completely convinced that A, they're done, or if they raise rates in November that that's it as well.”

    2023-09-15 · Forward Guidance · Jim Bianco: No Recession, No Landing · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  5. “Right. 93% chance they're not going to raise rates. I agree with that. I think that they're going to pause, if to use their phrase, at the next meeting. The next meeting after that is November 1st. The market is putting mid 40s, 45, 44 percent chance that the Fed will raise rates. Let's call it what it is, 50-50. That's a coin toss meeting. I think the Fed will raise rates at that meeting. Now, what happens after that? The consensus thinks the Fed's done, raising rates. I'm not so sure. I still think that the inflation problem that they're worried about, I think inflation bottomed in June on a year-over-year basis, I'm talking about CPI, headline CPI, and a year-over-year basis at 3%. It went to 3.2 in July, August is expected to be around.”

    2023-09-15 · Forward Guidance · Jim Bianco: No Recession, No Landing · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  6. “Right. So let me answer the question in two ways. We're recording about a week before the next Fed meeting, and that would be the September 20th meeting. And the market is putting about a 7% chance that the Fed's going to raise rates.”

    2023-09-15 · Forward Guidance · Jim Bianco: No Recession, No Landing · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT