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Jim Mellon

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2021-03-28
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2021-03-28
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  1. Right, so there's a Mooze law book. It's all together in one word website. I would go on to that. You can get the book on Amazon or really any other book selling thing. And I think that's a good place to start. But I've really enjoyed talking to you, Trey. I appreciate you asking me. And from one Scotsman to another, fare thee well.

    2021-03-28 · We Study Billionaires · TIP342: The Future of Food w/ Billionaire Jim Mellon · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  2. Coming up on the rails against electrification. I think they're all expensive, but that's the way that I try and think. And the last thing, and the most important thing possibly is what I call application, which is basically hard work. If you don't put in the hours, you're not going to be a successor. You've got to actually really work at it. There are a few people who look at, but not many. I really want investors to succeed because our capital markets are the things that keep our societies together in a positive way, but they're not going to succeed if it's just becomes a casino. And the three things I just want to emphasize, number one, curiosity, adaptability and application. If everyone can do that, then we're going to have some very success. I know you have a lot of listeners, very successful listeners out there.

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  3. You've asked some brilliant questions. I'm very much appreciative of you having me on the show. I will just say, in closing remarks before I go, as I was telling you earlier, the pub quiz that we host every Thursday night, it's a bit early for a pub quiz where you are, but it's the right time here, is that in my experience, for what it's worth, and I don't think I'm a particularly innovative person. I've been a very competent plagiarist in my life. But in my experience, if you want to be a successful investor, you have to be curious. You have to read a lot. You have to listen to Trey's podcast. You have to listen to other podcasts. You have to just be persistent in listening and have an open mind to all sorts of people. The second thing is you have to be adaptable. You and I know that things change on a dime. Let's say electrification today, but tomorrow hydrogen becomes the big thing. And we should look at hydrogen, which is

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  4. Great question. So, lithium is the obvious thing, and obviously in the United States, you've got an issue with importing rare metals and lithium from China. And you want to have a domestic and secure supply. So I've been investing, we have a company called Brada Head, which is actually named after the view from my house on the Isle of Man. And at some point in the relatively near future, we'll take that company public. It's got a lot of concessions in the United States for lithium, which I'm super bullish on. Super bullish.

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  5. Very good question. So basically, electric cars use a lot of to be made. They use a lot of copper, nickel and so forth that have to be extracted using a large amount of fossil fuel. When they're on the road, they use electricity which is stored in the batteries. And that electricity is in many cases generated by using fossil fuels and particularly coal. So although people might think that Germany is a green country, actually nearly half of its electricity is produced by the burning of coal. So when you're producing coal to make electricity that's used by Tesla cars, is that a green movement? I don't think so. And the same in the United States. I mean, you're using coal, you're using gas, you're using fossil fuels to produce a large amount of your electricity. The wind power, the solar panels are solar fraction, a small fraction of the energy.

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  6. Yeah, definitely. I mean, I think that makes perfect sense, but it's not an easy thing to go because farms are normally owned by individual farmers. They're not listed. And I actually haven't thought that's a good question. I haven't thought about how you go short individual companies in this area. I mean, I think the nearest to it is JBS, the Brazilian company, which is entirely dependent upon farming cattle. But I wouldn't know how to, it's a Brazilian company. I wouldn't know how to go about that. I think it's much better just to invest in the positivity. I mean, those who went short GameStop on the basis that it was a dinosaur that was going to go bust have lost a lot of money. So it's probably better just to be optimistic and go for the positive companies. But definitely short Tesla, even at 715 today, the last time I looked, I think it will go to 500 or below.

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  7. All know is that companies sometimes fail, or there'll be a few of them that are bold, that will go out and create their own large brands like Impossible or Beyond have done. And if I had to say that my favorite in terms of creating its own large brand at the moment is Blue Narlo in seafood, because it's closer to market and it's got a very good management team. But like everything in an early stage and the internet in the early years or longevity in current period or in food today, you need to have a diversified portfolio. Don't put all your eggs or all your food in one basket. It's better to diversify.

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  8. Yeah, that's another great question. So basically, you've got companies like Unilever or Nestle or Banon or in the US Tyson Cargill and the Brazilian company JBS, which are actually either investing in or partnering with some of these cell egg and plant-based companies because they know which way the writing is on the wall for them. And frankly speaking, these are large companies that will sell, I'm not saying they'll sell anything, but they'll sell any food that consumers want and that's legal and it's reasonably high quality. They don't necessarily have to sell it from animals that were slaughtered. So I think you're going to see more and more of these companies buying up or partnering with some of the companies that I mentioned. In Moo's Law, I talk about sold. I think a lot of these companies will be sold to the majors in the next few years for the intellectual property or they'll fold because of the way of the world as we invest.

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  9. Antibiotics and they become carriers of diseases that move into humans. So the swine flus, the bird flus, and now the latest COVID-19 have all come as a result of close confinement of animals and the transmission of novel disease to humans. Do we want that or can we avoid that by doing something different? We can do something different. It's here and now. Why wouldn't consumers and everyone on the planet actually want that?

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  10. Balming uses more water than anything else in the world. And 80% of antibiotics go into intensively farmed animals to both keep them from getting diseases and also to promote their growth. So a chicken today, for instance, is three times bigger than the chicken that existed in 1950 because they're genetically engineered to grow much faster. And they have miserable and short lives. And the average chicken lives 23 days before it's slaughtered. The average dairy cow lives two years, whereas in a field it would live up to 25 years because it's constantly pregnant. It's back breaks because its others become so big from producing milk all the time. So this is a very cruel profession, very cruel industry, and it's all around the world. It's not just in the US or in Europe. It's everywhere. But the biggest risk is that you pump all these animals full of hormones and

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  11. 70% of all crops grown around the world, including those from the Amazon, former Amazon jungle, which has been cut down to grow soya beans and therefore causes even more environmental destruction and climate change, go to feed animals. They don't go to feed us. And those animals are very inefficient converters of plant protein into animal protein. So in the case of a chicken, it's about nine to one. And in the case of a cow, it's 25 to 1. So it takes 25 times more inputs for the cow to produce one output of meat. Whereas in this process, the cell out process is about two to one. You can already see how the price of lab-grown meat could be lower than the price of conventional meat. On top of that, as you rightly point out, Frey, each kilo of beef and kilo is 2.2 pounds takes about 15,000 liters of water to produce. That's a huge amount of water.

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  12. Tissue cells and the fat cells to produce meat. Now, in a nutshell, that 2.5 milliliters sample can produce 3,000 kilos or nearly 7,000 pounds in meat, which is the equivalent of seven kettle. They would take 28 to 30 months to grow and feed lot. And we can produce that 3,000 kilos or 7,000 pounds of meat in 40 days. That's the process. So you take the genetic code effectively of the cow. You don't modify it at all. There's no genetic modification. You bathe it in the same kind of nutrients as if a cow was sitting in a feedlot or was in a field. You use growth adders, which are well-known growth factors, and you grow it in large stainless steel containers that are known as bioreactors, then put The various bits back together, and you have me, and that's how it happens.

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  13. I think the easiest way of presenting this is using a conventional meat example. So let's talk about cows. Seafood is exactly the same, by the way. So let's say that you have a cow and it's living in your backyard and we want to, and it's a very good cow, in every way it's very healthy, its type of meat, not that you would ever kill it, but its type of meat would be very favorable for us. So what we do is we go out to the cow, we take 2.5 milliliters, which is a tiny amount. It's less than, it's like a nail, right? A small nail worth of fluid from it, but it doesn't even feel anything. We then take that, we extract the stem cells, which are the precursor cells, the one that make us grow when we're babies or fetuses, and we differentiate those stem cells by bathing them in nutrients and growth factors become the cells that we want, which are the muscle cells, the next cells.

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  14. There aren't. I mean, the only company is agronomics, which is, I'm the biggest shell rock, which is the investment vehicle listed in the London Stock Exchange, which invests in this industry. But as yet, none of these companies have gone public. There will be, of course, companies that go public over the next couple of years. And in the book, News Law, I suggest the ones that you might want to be looking at from a public point of view, because I think it would be great investments going forward. And among them, of course, is Blue Nai Lu, which is going to have a product on the

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  15. I think that's right. As I said earlier, I don't think that the plant base foods are necessarily better for you than conventional meats. But the cell ag is completely different because that is the best of species grown in a lab to come out without any of the contaminants and e num numbers and all the other stuff that you're referring to, quite rightly, on the plant-based stuff. But I wouldn't say that the plant-based manufacturers aren't cognizant of that and aren't doing something about it. And we're seeing today, you know, for instance, beyond us re-engineering its products all the time to be healthier, to have less saturated fat, to have less stuff that isn't necessarily very good for you. And so Ethan Brown was telling me that he's going to keep producing better and better products that will be better for human health. But at the moment, you're right. That stuff is not necessarily better for you than eating the conventional stuff.

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  16. Be below grid or parity within 10 years, and grid or parity obviously is a riff like Moose Law is off an established indicator where grid parity is when the price of renewable energy goes below that or goes to the same level as fossil fuel derived energy. And it's the same with cell ag products. At some point, they'll come down to the level or below the level of conventional meat. And then the tipping point is all right. So in the US this year, you'll be close to a quarter of your milk market will be alternative milks. A quarter. It was nothing 10 years ago. And so Borden and Dean Fews have gone back because they can't sustain the production of conventional dairy products when they have such effective competition on their doorsteps. And so I think this is right for everyone. And even the farmers can benefit from a whole load of reasons that are included in Moose Law. But within 10 years,

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  17. We, you and me, when we're allowed to, we can share a meal, won't do so eating lab-grown foods because they'll be just so much better for using for the planet.

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  18. Do exactly what they're doing because we would be litigated out of business. So, this is why I prefer that. The other reason I prefer that is that Plant Based are coming down in price and they will probably come down to the price of conventional meats. They're not necessarily better for your health, but clearly meats grown in laboratories or seafood grown in laboratories have the capacity of coming down below the price of conventional meat, being better in taste, texture, and better for health because they won't have toxins, they won't have equal material that's leaked into the product, which in the United States, by the way, causes one in six people in the United States to be in bed every year because of food poisoning. They won't have antibiotics in them or hormones or in the case of seafood, mercury or microplastics. So there is absolutely no reason why

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  19. Well, I think Beyond's a great company. And for my book, Moose Law, I interviewed Ethan Brown, who I think is a super nice, motivated, mission-driven person. And I'm a big fan of his. But what he's involved in is an industry that doesn't have a lot of IP protection, intellectual property protection. Because, to be quite honest, Trey, you and I could set up a plant-based meat company tomorrow. And there are plenty of them around. And you're right, Tyson or Kellogg's or Unilever or Nestle or the big food companies are doing exactly that. So he's got a lot of potential competition on his hands. The difference between what he does and what the cell ag comes to where they're growing food, materials and laboratories is that they have a special intellectual property that is robust and high patterns. And it makes it very hard for Trey and Jim to go off and

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  20. What I'm very interested in and why we are the biggest investors in the world in this particular area is in cellular agriculture where you grow meat, materials, seafood in labs. And again, the leading companies are generally in the United States, but not entirely in the United States. But in 10 years' time, you and I will be eating seafood that's made on a lab, we'll be eating meat that's made in a lab. We'll be eating, we'll be using leather that's made in a lab, we'll be using threads that are made in the lab. And this is here and now. It's all these companies have a product. The question is scale up. That's my book. It's Moo's Law, which has just come out, which is about this very industry and how you can how investors can profit from it. And just as an aside, all the proceeds go to the Good Food Institute, which is the largest advocacy group for this in the world. It's necessary that we move away from eating animals that are intensive.

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  21. Of your agriculture as intensive, which means the animals get fed inside in fee blots and quite often kept in what you and I would consider to be cruel conditions. But they're also the biggest contributor to global emissions, more so than transport. Even if Elon Musk electrifies the whole world, we know that some of the electricity that goes into producing the electricity to fuel power the cars is bad electricity. But if we could cut the amount of food that was produced intensively, then we'd make a much bigger dent in global emissions. At that point, so in the United States, again, the leader in technology and so many things, you've got the plant-based revolution that's taken off like a rocket beyond and impossible and so forth. And actually, to be fair in Europe as well, in the UK, you've got corn, you've got meatless farms, you've got live kindly and oatly, which is going to go public quite soon. So that's the first wave of the revolution.

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  22. Height way over expensive company. And notwithstanding all the stuff about storing energy on car batteries and the solar panels on roofs and all the other stuff that Elon Musk might dream up in Tesla, it's expensive company. And those situations in my experience always end up in tears. So from a renewable energy point of view, I don't think there's anything that I can see that's worth investing in. But if you look at what are the causes of emissions around the world, transport is one of them, but the biggest cause is intensive farming. The biggest cause of global warming is calcles emitting methane into the atmosphere. It's as simple as that, along with pigs, chickens, ducks, which by the way are a big component of food supply in China, and cheap. And they are, and since the Second World War, increasingly intensively farmed. So in the United States, 99%

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  23. Another good question. I mean, basically, I think that almost everything to do with the Green Revolution, while worthy and wonderful and great and obviously impactful and necessary, is too highly priced. The reason, I mean, I've got nothing against Tesla. I wish I was Elon Musk on a life he must live is that even today it's 700 and something billion dollars, it is worth more than every other car company in the world put together. They're catching up if they haven't already caught up very, very quickly. So to justify the current valuation of Tesla, you have to have a remarkable view on their prospects. And I don't have that remarkable view. I think that Tesla, as I said earlier, could go down by 50% from this level quite easily. You'll be very jagged on the way, but it's way over.

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  24. All sorts of stuff, and we're almost there. We're almost there. So I'm extremely bullish, but I'm not bullish like Ray Kurzweld, who makes a very specific forecast by 2040. The singularity will be here, which means that for every year that you live, you'll get more than a year of extra life. I think that that's, I'm not saying that's a wild prediction that I wouldn't have made

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  25. Great question. So basically, my view is that within 20 years, life expectancy at birth will be 110 in the developed world. You will have the old paradigm of born, learn, earn, retire and expire will be changed because people, they are, be learning as a continuum throughout their lives, relationships will change, work patterns will change, etc. And so we're very, very close to that point. Years ago, I got a pilot's license and the guy who was teaching me told me that if there's something in the distance that's a static object when you're looking out of the cockpit, it's coming straight at you. It may not look like it's moving, but it's coming straight at you. And that's the same with long-termity. This is going to happen much quicker than people think. For even someone like myself, I think there's an extremely good chance my dad's 92 years old, that I'll live to 100. You certainly will live to 100. And so you need to take into account your financial planning, your planning all.

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  26. I wouldn't say so. I mean, I think this is free to use for any scientific advance in the world. And there is no doubt, as in so many other areas, that the US is far, far ahead of other countries in terms of longevity science, food science, and the other areas that I'm interested in. The only area which may be being bettered is AI, where the Chinese seem to be possibly even ahead of the United States. But generally speaking, the source of all the great technologies in the world is the US. And that should be applauded, really.

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  27. System. And as a result, there is a very big compendium of information available for scientists in the UK, which I thoroughly encourage people to look at if they want to.

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  28. Yes, and obviously a product of juveness is devoted to AI, largely to accelerate the process of drug discovery so that, for instance, our affiliate company in Silicon Medicine based in Hong Kong can now, theoretically at least, develop a new compound, highly specific compound in 30 days as opposed to the historical three years, and can also probably in due course develop a drug for you, personalized drug, or for me personalized drug. But it won't just be obviously for longevity, it'll be for all sorts of diseases, but AI depends on massive data sets and those data sets are not as readily available as they should be. Cod enough, the UK has got the best data sets which are available to scientists because of the NHS and national health service, which is a unified

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  29. Etc. Now we've got the possibility of actually changing our fundamental biology, allowing us to live to maybe 110 or 120. And that's my aspiration. But more importantly, to live those extra years in a robust and healthy condition, not sitting in a chair dribbling away waiting for the grim reaper to come and take us away and not being sick with cancer or heart disease or diabetes or Alzheimer's or whatever. And that's a great prize that is here and now. And the science is catching up with the aspiration of all of us to have a robust and healthy life from a much bigger part of our lives, which may even be longer lives.

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  30. Including an odds, to slow or to reverse the aging factors those pathways cause. We are in the dial-up phase of the internet vis- ⁇-vis the longevity industry. It's very difficult to know exactly what's going to work, but I personally know that it is going to work and it will be totally revolutionary. 1900 in your country and in my country, average life expectancy was about 47 at birth. Today, if you make it to 65, I mean, more than you're like 95% likely to make it over 90. So the whole of our life expectancy and the way in which we conduct our lives has changed dramatically in the last 120 years. Now, none of that has occurred because of any pharmaceutical or therapeutic intervention. It's all because of better sanitation or vaccines or antibiotics less infant mortality.

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  31. No idea. I mean, it's like saying Bitcoin could go to $300,000 or a million dollars or whatever. I think that is, it's almost a headline grabbing statement and it doesn't, frankly speaking, in my opinion, do the longevity industry any good because there have been multiple pronouncements over the last 5,000 years about some secret that will keep you alive forever, something that will an elixir of youth that will rejuvenate you. Nothing has worked. And even today, the anti-aging industry is about $150 billion around the world. And none of that stuff works. But what's happening is that since the unveiling of the human genome, scientists have discovered pathways of aging that cause even you, but especially me, to age. And those pathways can be manipulated in all mammalian species, in many cases.

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  32. So basically, I look at investment as meta-thematics. So your big money will be made in something that you really research, that you really understand.

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  33. And for early period of my career, the Japanese index was, I would say, 20 or 30 times higher than the Dana Jones in the United States. So they had this enormous rise. And today, they're at about the same level. The Dow is about the same level as the NICA. So Japan is a really interesting, it's very good that you ask that question because I would say that Japan is absolutely going to have a further move upwards, partly because it's breached those horrible levels that were reached in 1989, partly because Japanese companies are full of cash, partly because they're really good companies in many cases, and partly because Japanese savers have monumental amounts of money on which they're earning absolutely nothing. And now the Japanese companies are paying more dividends. So load up on Japan. I think that's a very good idea.

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  34. Well, I think he's a super smart individual. If you ask me, I started my career by investing working for an investment company that was investing in Japan a long time ago. And in 1989, not too long after I'd started work, the Japanese market hit its all-time peak, which has never been exceeded. And even though the market's been going up recently, it's still below the level it was. I don't know if you know this, Trey, but after the war, when all the financial institutions in Japan were reconstituted. And I think I'm right, it was 1948. The Nike Index was called the Nikkei Dow Jones Index. And the reason it was called that was because it was aligned exactly with the Dow Jones index. And so they were both then at about 120, my recollection of it wasn't born. I wasn't around then. But if my recollection is correct.

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  35. A P of about four times and a dividend yield of 7 or 8%. So I would load up on that. Like the US banks, their boys is very well capitalized. So little danger that you're going to lose all your money and something like that. But, you know, you play it for a 50% rise and then you get out of it as you would with the US banks.

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  36. That's a great question, Grey. I mean, my own view is that banks are something that you own cyclically. You don't own them for long-term growth. And that's definitely been the right way to play banks. But I think that in the US, you've got some great community or local banks that will probably be subject to acquisition as time goes on and are very high quality. And the US banks have been recapitalized since the financial crisis, the last financial crisis very well. They're not going to experience the level of fines and penalties that they had in the last 10 years and their probably good buys. In the UK, I've been accumulating Lloyd's bank, which is our biggest for your listeners, is our biggest retail bank. And mostly almost entirely exposed to the British economy, which I think will do quite well, actually, in the next couple of years. They announced quite good results yesterday. I think they're on a Perspective.

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  37. Own market has been buoyed by massive amounts of stimulation, monetary, printing, and so forth. And it's got to end in tears. I mean, I've been around, I've been doing this now for 30-something years, and I would say that this is up there with 2000 and also up there with 2007. We've got a big problem coming.

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  38. I think we've already done that. I mean, we've already seen that rotation back to value stocks. I mean, the tech stocks have been weak to flat for quite a period now. I'm actually short Tesla. I think that's going down by at least another 50%. But what I really look at is the money supply increase in the United States, which has been at the beginning of the year was phenomenal, as you probably know, was close to 25%, which is hyperinflationary style money increase at a time when the economy is probably going to bounce back quite quickly. So I have all sorts of supply capacity constraints which will lead to higher inflation. But the Fed is clearly doing something to abate that because the money supply growth has been much, much lower in the last two or three weeks, which is one of the reasons you're seeing the rise in interest rates. I would say away from bonds. Do you think the US dollar probably has further to four with volatility on the way?

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  39. Well, that is a very good question. And if I knew the answers, I probably would be sitting in the Bahamas rather than in Spain at the moment. But my general view is that we're in a very frothy situation. I imagine that you probably agree with me on that. I was intrigued but GameStop, for instance, doubled yesterday and then the after hours, but they're at it again. The Robin Hood boys. So I don't suppose that whole mania is over quite yet, but I can't believe that it's not too far from the end. My partner who's here, she represents some of the companies that are involved in this area. And it's been a very hectic period for her because the amount of press coverage has been incredible, but it seems to be abating at the moment. I don't know. My own view is that you should stay very...

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