YouSaid · the spoken record

Joe Brown

lines on the record: 73
first: 2021-12-12
most recent: 2021-12-12
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

Every line below is reproduced as it was said and linked to the record it came from. Nothing here is summarised or generated. Directory · Search · Corrections

“Number one place is on YouTube. My channel is called Heresy Financial there. And then the second place is on Twitter. Handel is heresy financial on Twitter as well.”
2021-12-12 · We Study Billionaires · TIP404: The Untold History of Money w/ Joe Brown · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“That's the two year yield. U.S. Treasuries yielded a two-year U.S. treasuries. So that's an indication of what's, it looks like a penny stock or a new crypto, a new token Dogecoin, whatever, but it's the yield on the two-year treasury. So take that for what it's worth.”
2021-12-12 · We Study Billionaires · TIP404: The Untold History of Money w/ Joe Brown · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Anti fragile than skin in the game in that order, black swan, anti fragile, skin in the game. And from applies to things outside of investing as well. But if I would have read those books early on, I would have been saved massive amounts of money that I lost when I couldn't afford it if I would have understood things that he explains very, very clearly about risk management and some other things in those books. And then finally, this is a new book. It just came out a couple months ago is Safe Haven by Mark Spitzenagel. Safe haven investing for harsh times, I believe, is the subtitle. Fantastic book about cost effective risk mitigation. A little bit of math. So I would recommend getting the physical copy, not the audio copy, but all of those fantastic that I recommend a lot.”
2021-12-12 · We Study Billionaires · TIP404: The Untold History of Money w/ Joe Brown · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So I read a lot, though I can't limit it just to one. So I apologize. I'm going to have to take advantage here and recommend a few for different reasons. I would say the first place to start would be anything by Jack Schwager. He's written the Market Wizards series. He started back, I think it was the 80s with Market Wizards. He's written like five or six of them now. Unknown market wizards, hedge fund market wizards, the new market wizards, all different books and just absolutely fantastic because he interviews the best investors in the world. And when you read a couple of those, you start to see parallels. And you say, okay, every single successful investor for decades now have done the same things, pattern recognition sets in. You start to see, hey, these are the things that make you successful at investing. The second group of books that I recommend, probably more than any others actually, is By Nassim Taleb. Not all of his books, but three of them, Black Swan.”
2021-12-12 · We Study Billionaires · TIP404: The Untold History of Money w/ Joe Brown · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“At the full circle, you're seeing everybody who is in on what's going on realizing, hey, the best way to take advantage of a future drop in the value of a currency is by using that to buy an asset that will have to be repriced upwards in the face of that hyperinflation. And that data is backed up by the net international investment position, the NIIP. You can look at the charts. We have one of the lowest NIIPs in the developed world. And that's just a result of we hand dollars out. They buy our assets. We don't buy their assets. We buy their goods.”
2021-12-12 · We Study Billionaires · TIP404: The Untold History of Money w/ Joe Brown · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“that's one of the only things one of the biggest things that we'll still be doing because almost everything else we don't make ourselves and so when when something like this happens if we loop back around to what i was saying about the trade deficit that we have right now we think we're taking advantage of the world we're sending out all these paper dollars we're getting real goods in return but when you look full circle what is the rest of the world doing with those dollars especially China they're buying land in America They're buying real estate. They're buying stocks in America. They're buying dollar-denominated assets. So what we're actually doing is trading ownership of our assets like land and stocks and real estate to the rest of the world in exchange for consumable goods, not assets that we're using up. And they're buying real estate and land and farmland with it. And so when you take”
2021-12-12 · We Study Billionaires · TIP404: The Untold History of Money w/ Joe Brown · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“They start to attract all of the capital. And they still can make pigs. They can still make eggs. They can still make cows because they're farmers. And so they get to sell those at higher and higher and higher prices because that's what everybody wants more of. And when asked what they were doing, because everybody got mad, they're like, hey, you're taking advantage of us. You're getting rich. You're exploiting us in this poverty. When asked what they were doing with all the riches, they were accumulating. They said they were paying off their mortgages. That goes back to what I said earlier about shorting the dollar taking out fixed rate debt to capitalize on inflation. But essentially, what you have to do when inflation starts to take off is you have to provide the world something of real world value in order to get your hands on the currency that somebody else wants in exchange for the goods you're trying to buy. And if everybody doesn't want dollars anymore, we'll have to get, let's say, euros or yen or bitcoin or gold or silver, whatever it is, we have to provide something in order to get that. And farmland, farm, food.”
2021-12-12 · We Study Billionaires · TIP404: The Untold History of Money w/ Joe Brown · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And institutions, a lot of big money is scooping up farmland. So when big money starts to do something, you have to ask yourself why. So now we have to go to the inflation example. And I really like to use Weimar Germany as an example. When hyperinflation set in, very few people were winners. Almost everybody was a loser. But there are two really good books on the hyperinflation Weimar Germany. One of them is When Money Dies by Adam Ferguson. The other one is the downfall of money by Frederick Taylor. And I can't remember in which one, but one of them details kind of like the day-to-day lives of people that are going through this. And farmers were getting rich because it turns out when luxuries go out the window because you were living high on the hog, but it was fake wealth and everything starts to collapse and everybody has an abundance of money, but nothing of real value. The people who still have the ability to create real value, especially necessities like food.”
2021-12-12 · We Study Billionaires · TIP404: The Untold History of Money w/ Joe Brown · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And so we don't have to make anything, we don't have to do anything productive to make these dollars. We can print them as a country. And so just to put this in perspective, if you're an individual and you're really good at counterfeiting, let's say you're an artist, you can counterfeit dollars, you're going to do that to pay your bills, right? You're going to deposit those dollars in your account, pay your mortgage with it, you're going to go to the store, buy stuff with it until you get caught. Once you get caught, then you're going to have to provide something of real value to the world in order to get your hands on purchasing power. And so you're only able to exchange then at that point once you're caught real wealth in exchange for other wealth that you want. And so for now you're living high on the hog by printing up fake money. But once you get caught, you're going to have to resort to whatever skill you have in order to create value. One of the things that America does right now is farm. We've got a lot of farmland. Pretty good at making food. And so what you have right now is a situation where billionaires.”
2021-12-12 · We Study Billionaires · TIP404: The Untold History of Money w/ Joe Brown · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, that's a great question. And the short answer is yes, and there are very easy ways to even just get exposure to farmland, even if you only have a couple of bucks inside of a regular, you know, like a Robin Hood account or something like that through ETFs. But the reason why it relies on understanding two things. The first thing is the trade deficit that America has right now. And then the second thing to understand is what happens during high inflation. And I like to look at Weimar Germany as a very good example. In America, we make very little things, very little of the things that we consume ourselves. Most of what we consume comes from other countries. That's the trade deficit. We buy more from other countries than we sell to other countries. What we have to do to get that stuff is give something, right? Well, what do we give right now? We give dollars, which are essentially worthless, right? Looks like we're winning. We're handing out these worthless pieces of paper and we're getting all sorts of goods, all sorts of consumable items in return for it.”
2021-12-12 · We Study Billionaires · TIP404: The Untold History of Money w/ Joe Brown · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Profiting on inflation when you can need fixed rate debt to buy an asset that makes up so much of an economy that the people in power are incentivized to keep those prices going up.”
2021-12-12 · We Study Billionaires · TIP404: The Untold History of Money w/ Joe Brown · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Are going to go up, and that's it. The cost of servicing that debt is a huge, almost the sole influence on affordability of these homes. But that's not going to last long like we already covered. And when they have to slam interest rates back down to bail out the economy one last time, stimulate debt growth, we already know how much a drop in mortgage rates influences the extra cash that people have. So if they peg it mortgage rates to 2% or 1% or even lower, the refinancing that people are going to be able to do, buying of greater price houses that people are going to be able to do. The cash out refinances when the prices go up as a result from that, the cash that they're going to have as a result. These are all things that are going to make housing prices explode in dollar terms. Purchasing power is another question, but in dollar terms, especially when you're using fixed rate mortgages to buy real estate, it's by definition shorting the dollar. And so it's a play on.”
2021-12-12 · We Study Billionaires · TIP404: The Untold History of Money w/ Joe Brown · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Are increasingly making up more and more of the buyers of these homes that are getting sold. So when one person sells their home, sometimes they're selling it to another person that's going to live there, but growing increasingly so, they're selling it to a company that's going to put a renter in there. And so you can't look at the supply of resales. You have to look at new homes that are being built. Because after the financial crisis, developers got destroyed and we were probably optimistically five but probably closer to 10 years away from new supply catching up. And now what are we seeing with supply chains? Well, you can't get supplies. You can't get steel. You can't get labor. And so new homes aren't being built. They keep on getting delayed. They keep on getting delayed and delayed and delayed. And we're not seeing new supply catch up with demand. And so the tapering will likely put a break on prices going up because mortgage rates.”
2021-12-12 · We Study Billionaires · TIP404: The Untold History of Money w/ Joe Brown · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, that's a great question. It's very easy to just look at the prices and the average prices, and you look at the Case Schiller index, and you're like, oh, they have to come back down, right? At this point in an economy, when you have this level of manipulation and expansion and financialization of everything, you have to start asking compared to what? Because comparing things to dollars eventually starts to break down. So you have to start comparing things to other things. When you measure home prices in gold, they're not at all-time highs. When you measure home prices versus the stock market, it's not at all time highs. And the reality is that the current housing market is nothing like it was 12, 13 years ago. Well, right now, new supply is what to watch because there's nobody sitting with three or four empty homes just watching the price go up so they can sell it to the greater pool. The people are living in a house when they sell it. They move somewhere else and they buy another house. Investors and institutions.”
2021-12-12 · We Study Billionaires · TIP404: The Untold History of Money w/ Joe Brown · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“That is emerging markets. Problem with that is countries that have to get dollars in order for their economy to survive. Because as this happens, the dollar gets more expensive. Well, that puts a lot of pressure. And emerging markets crises almost always happen as a result of unexpected dollar spikes because it just gets harder to get your hands on dollars and you need dollars to do global international commerce. And so I think it's very likely that within the next year, as we see interest rates go up, especially short-term interest rates and the dollar go up, we're going to see some sort of crisis pop up in another country that's going to bleed over into balance sheet of a Eurozone bank that's completely overleveraged right now and spill over into the financial system. And that could be a crisis that will cause them to turn tail and have to push that dollar back down and ease again.”
2021-12-12 · We Study Billionaires · TIP404: The Untold History of Money w/ Joe Brown · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Faster than they originally anticipated. And this is tightening at a level that is faster than the rest of the world, greater. And so relative to the rest of the world, that's making the dollar appear stronger. And also you have players just front running that. And so when you see inflation like this and you see, okay, well, it's going to take a long time for the Federal Reserve to react to this and even longer for the effects of their reaction to work its way out into the economy. It's ludicrous for me to hold on to a 10-year bond paying 1.6% when inflation is four, five, six, seven, eight percent. I'm not going to do that. So I'm going to sell that. Well, that puts downward pressure on bond prices, which is upward pressure on interest rates. And eventually in absence of manipulation, an absence of a buyer with a printer, then you get equilibrium, where eventually the interest rates will reach at least the price of inflation to have real interest rates not be negative anymore. But the problem with”
2021-12-12 · We Study Billionaires · TIP404: The Untold History of Money w/ Joe Brown · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So, I always say that Brent Johnson, he's probably one of the most misunderstood people in MAC are out there, essentially because when the dollar spiking, it's just versus other currencies. And that's what probably 90% of people don't understand. They think, oh, the dollar is going up. That means gold's going down or stocks are going down or real estate's going down or the dollar is getting stronger relative to everything else where it's gaining and purchasing power. It means none of that. It's measured against other currencies. And so it just means it's going up relative to other currencies. So then you have to ask, well, why is it going up relative to the currencies that it's measured against in that basket? And the answer is because of the corner that the Federal Reserve is in right now being pushed into tapering and tightening. So with the unprecedented levels of inflation that we've been seeing recently and now those jobs, those fake jobs numbers that we talked about, we're seeing the Federal Reserve saying that they're going to continue the taper. They're going to potentially even raise interest rates.”
2021-12-12 · We Study Billionaires · TIP404: The Untold History of Money w/ Joe Brown · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Unlimited QE up again after an emerging markets crisis happens later next year as a result of the tightening. And then everybody in the world dumps treasuries and then dumps dollars. We have hyperinflation here and the dollar actually fails. What you'll probably see happen is the federal government say the problem was counterfeiting and fraud and the problem was cash. And the problem was we didn't have enough control. And so or the problem was the Federal Reserve being part private. They didn't have the legal ability to do what they should have been able to do to solve the problem. So we're going to absorb the Fed underneath the treasury. We're going to issue new dollars that are digital, like the greenback that we issued under the Treasury during the Civil War. And so they will give it a new name. They'll bring the Federal Reserve monetary policy under fiscal policy. I think that's how it'll be rolled out on the back of the failure of the current dollar.”
2021-12-12 · We Study Billionaires · TIP404: The Untold History of Money w/ Joe Brown · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Not legally do business unless it goes through their account at the Fed. And as an individual, if you want to do transact, if you want to buy from any business, you will need a wallet to do so. Because the only way to get money into a wallet is from another wallet. And so you have a week to turn in all of your old dollars, all of your cash, and we will give you the equal number of those in the new central bank digital currency. There's no loss to you. But if you wait too long, legally those are not legal tender anymore. And so it would relegate everything like that cash, Bitcoin, things like that, barter to a black market, or at least a parallel market, and you would not be able to buy or sell without an account like that. And you ask about what, like, it seems unbelievable how we did into that, but it would be on the back of a dollar failure. And so if we get to the point where the federal government defaults or they start.”
2021-12-12 · We Study Billionaires · TIP404: The Untold History of Money w/ Joe Brown · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Would almost certainly be relegated to a black market anytime you have things like this happening again all throughout history, even recently I think it was probably about five years ago, India overnight, it was their equivalent of the $20 bill. They just said, hey, this is no longer legal tender and you have 48 hours, it might have even been 24 hours, to turn in all of those bills of that denomination. And we're going to replace them with a higher denomination. And the reason they stated for this was because, oh, they're being counterfeited. Oh, there's money laundering. Oh, there's fraud. But really, it was because they wanted more control and they wanted more taxation ability over their people. And so you have things like this happen all the time where they'll roll out a CBDC at the beginning. It will be something like a trial program. But eventually it'll get to the point where they say, all right, in order to do business in America, you must have an account, a wallet at the Federal Reserve. So every business, every merchant can.”
2021-12-12 · We Study Billionaires · TIP404: The Untold History of Money w/ Joe Brown · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Can't fix the problem of perfect knowledge because every pricing choice that's made is an internal decision based on subjective value. There's no such thing as intrinsic value. We can talk about subjective value if you want. That's probably a longer conversation. But you can't understand the intentions behind it. And so you end up with malinvestment, misallocation of resources that are so large that you collapse the system under its own weight.”
2021-12-12 · We Study Billionaires · TIP404: The Untold History of Money w/ Joe Brown · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Fine tune taxes. You don't need to wait for Congress. You don't need to wait for a new president to roll out a new tax cuts and jobs act or anything like that. You can tax the economy, fine-tune where you think it's being overheated. Gas prices are going up, double the taxes, whatever it is. You can debit people's accounts if this was, in her words, if inflation is running too high in extreme circumstances. So even at this level, they understand inflation is a result of monetary expansion, deflation is a result of monetary contraction. So if inflation is running away from you, just take half of everybody's money. Then you'll get deflation. It'll stop the inflation. And so that's why I say that CBDCs are a tyrant's wet dream because it allows fine-tuning of the economy, but ultimately it will fail. It's destined to collapse under its own weight because just because you have the pricing information and the transaction information and the control, you can't fix the problem of morality and you also”
2021-12-12 · We Study Billionaires · TIP404: The Untold History of Money w/ Joe Brown · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Let's say there's not enough money flowing into something with an economic or political agenda. Let's say solar panels, good example. We will accredit everybody $1,000, $10,000, whatever it is, and it can only be spent at a merchant that is licensed as a green energy company. And so you can fine-tune the economy or you can attempt to fine-tune the economy because you have all the information and the control to credit people's accounts for very specific purchases. And this is something I can't remember her name. I think it's Omar Rova. She was Biden's nominee for the head of the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency. She wrote a paper that was recently published on the People's Ledger on how to implement a CBDC. And she said that it would be essential to have the ability for the Federal Reserve to debit people's accounts. Well, number one, then you do away with the need for the IRS, right? Because you can automatically tax the economy.”
2021-12-12 · We Study Billionaires · TIP404: The Untold History of Money w/ Joe Brown · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Merchants and individuals have an account with the Federal Reserve instead, with the central bank instead. What that does is it consolidates all of the information about every single transaction that takes place under one roof. So instead of that being decentralized through the banking system, now you have it in the possession of the central bankers. You can run software programs. You can artificial intelligence, well, or machine learning, I should say, in order to try and understand that data. The second thing it does is it allows control because if you as a central planner see that there is a certain segment of the population based on whatever criteria you want, let's just say a wealth level. You can see, hey, this certain population has too low of a wealth level and that could destabilize the system. So we are going to just credit some money into their accounts. Or if you want to stimulate”
2021-12-12 · We Study Billionaires · TIP404: The Untold History of Money w/ Joe Brown · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“All of the knowledge, and you have all of the power, but you have the wrong motives, then you're going to use that and abuse it in a way that's not going to be good for the system, but it's going to be good for your buddies. And so this is philosophically speaking, kind of the idea for Jesus as the king of kings, you know, somebody who's omniscient has all the knowledge, somebody who's omnipotent, who has all the power, and who is sinless, somebody who's perfect in morality. And that's because it's an ideal that is impossible for a human to attain. And so we decentralize that. But a CBDC attempts to centralize that and basically become God over the economy in a way that a central bank digital currency can only do. And so in order to understand why we have to define that. Well, right now you have a bank account with Chase or Bank of America or Wells Fargo or wherever you have it. A CBDC is simply bypassing the banking system. It's an abolition of the banks and everybody then.”
2021-12-12 · We Study Billionaires · TIP404: The Untold History of Money w/ Joe Brown · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“That's the first thing you need. You need perfect knowledge. You need every intention and decision and price information of everything in existence all to be consolidated under one roof. The second thing you need is absolute control because just because you know what needs to be done to plan the economy does no good if you don't have the power to make that decision. And so there are a lot of legal loopholes right now or legal fences, I should say, that prevent the Federal Reserve from doing things that they would want to do to control the economy because all they're able to do is buy mortgage-backed securities and treasuries and lower interest rates. There are a lot of other things that they could, you know, I say fine-tune in quotes in order to manipulate the economy if they had control over those things. That second thing that you need is absolute control so that you can actually do something with that perfect knowledge that you have. And then the third thing that you need is pure morality. Because if you have”
2021-12-12 · We Study Billionaires · TIP404: The Untold History of Money w/ Joe Brown · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Pricing system works, the pricing system exists is because of information. If you have the production of wheat this year drop in half, that means half of the wheat will have to be consumed this year. You cannot consume more wheat than what is produced. And so that information has to be sent out into the economy. And that's sent out simply by prices. So I might buy one less loaf of bread because the price doubled. A bakery might continue to buy everything they bought before, but some people will consume less and on net it will be half because that's all that was produced. So that's what pricing does. It sends information out because nobody can know everything about everything. And so you have to look at prices to make a decision and say, I'm going to buy less bread because I still need water or I still need gas or I still need something else. And so prices are how we make that decision. And prices are decentralized perfect knowledge and absence of price manipulation. And so in order to...”
2021-12-12 · We Study Billionaires · TIP404: The Untold History of Money w/ Joe Brown · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“This is an area where my sarcasm might need some work because there are huge benefits to a CBDC. The question is for who because there are big downsides and big benefits. The question that has to be asked is for who. Because in reality, a central bank digital currency is a tyrant's wet dream. It is absolutely terrifying for a population that has to use it. In a nutshell, here's why. If you want, I'm going to go to the extreme here. If you want totalitarianism to work, if you want complete, I'll just say central planning. If you want to be able to centrally plan an economy and have that be effective, you need three things. You need perfect knowledge, perfect and complete knowledge. You need absolute control and you need pure morality. And so here's why you need those three things. You need perfect knowledge because the reason the”
2021-12-12 · We Study Billionaires · TIP404: The Untold History of Money w/ Joe Brown · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Garbage and worthless because it assumes an evenly rotating economy, which is not true. It's not reality. It works in a textbook on a page, but when you actually apply it in reality, all you have to do to have an increase in GDP is increase the money supply. And so there is no validity to the velocity of money, both empirically speaking and when you look at the math. But finally, let's say even ignore all that. Velocity is not at a record low. We've been this low before in 1940, in the early 40s. What happened after velocity hit this low? It skyrocketed because people were dumping money. They were spending money fast. And what happened as a result, inflation spiked. And so velocity tends to spike when people start dumping currency, especially in cases like Weimar, Germany, when you have hyperinflation. And that's something we don't want to see. When you start seeing velocity,”
2021-12-12 · We Study Billionaires · TIP404: The Untold History of Money w/ Joe Brown · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I think you hit the nail on the head there that we've seen record breaking inflation for months now, decades long records being broken, and velocity hasn't budged. Velocity is one of those that is just complete absolute trash. It is worthless. And part of it is because, empirically speaking, we're looking at, we're living through it right now. Anybody who still thinks you need velocity to have inflation has been living under a rock for the last eight months. It does not work. But secondly, the actual math is wrong. If you look at how velocity is calculated, it assumes you can quantify the money supply. Now, there are ways to estimate money supply like M2 and M1, but it is impossible to accurately and in total quantify the money supply. Let's say you can even do that. The velocity of money equation is built on the GDP formula. Well, GDP is another one that's complete trash.”
2021-12-12 · We Study Billionaires · TIP404: The Untold History of Money w/ Joe Brown · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Well, now to buy all the stuff, you need double the money. So if you want to buy some of the stuff, you need a lot more money than you did before. And so when you have a lot of individuals who barely were making ends meet before get their hands on new money, they're not investing it, they're spending it. And that's backed up empirically by every data point we have out there. When you put money into the hands of individuals that are not already wealthy, they have to spend it on the stuff that they are buying like rent and food and clothes and energy. And that bids up the prices because there's not a corresponding increase of goods and services. And that corresponding increase of goods and services doesn't happen until much later after prices have gone up to signal to the producers it's time to create more of it.”
2021-12-12 · We Study Billionaires · TIP404: The Untold History of Money w/ Joe Brown · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Well, probably not. Unfortunately. So at least in the short term, when you look at the way that no money works its way throughout an economy, typically that new money hits asset prices first, then it hits goods and services, and then it hits wages. And that's just simply a result of who gets their hands on the new money first. And so theoretically, if you could press a button and have complete control over the system, and you could have all the new money created go straight into the hands of poor or low class middle class individuals, then theoretically you could say, okay, you get the money first. But the problem is, even if you were able to do that, which you can't, it doesn't flow that way. But even if you could make it flow that way, what happens is the goods and services stays the same. The amount of stuff in the economy stays the same. Then the money explodes. So if before you had all the money was needed to buy all the stuff, now you double the money.”
2021-12-12 · We Study Billionaires · TIP404: The Untold History of Money w/ Joe Brown · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Contractors doing online things. And so we're seeing a huge shift, a huge trend that I view as absolutely fantastic for most people to escape the system that people have been trapped in for so long. And so this is one of those things that at least from what I can tell is a very good sign, very good trend going forward.”
2021-12-12 · We Study Billionaires · TIP404: The Untold History of Money w/ Joe Brown · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Go look for something better. And it put employers back on, it took them off guard and suddenly you're hearing stories everywhere of people like, hey, I got offered a job and I told them I couldn't take it. And they said, okay, well, what do you need to take it? And they said, okay, I want this, this, and this. And the employer's like, done. We need labor because everybody's quitting. And if you come here and you don't like it, you're going to quit. I'm going to have to hire somebody else. And every time I have to hire somebody, I have to retrain. And so employers are caught off guard and it's turned into a dynamic that's been putting a lot of power in the employee's hands. Very different trend from the last couple of decades. And a lot of people are just saying, I can move now another result of COVID was remote work, right? Everybody gets to work from home. I don't have to live in the city. I don't have to keep up these high expenses. I can go somewhere else. I can even get a job that's better for me, that pays less and say, screw it to the system and go live somewhere for much cheaper. A lot of people going into small businesses, becoming contracts.”
2021-12-12 · We Study Billionaires · TIP404: The Untold History of Money w/ Joe Brown · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“They have no autonomy. They're told exactly what to do, when to do it, when to clock in, when to clock out, when to take their lunch break, when they can go take a bathroom break like they're still kids in school. And so autonomy is out the window for most jobs. And then finally, seeing the fruit of your labor, this is something that especially in today's day and age, a lot of people are missing out on if you build something with your hands, you do the work and then you see the result if you're a mechanic or something like that. But for a lot of jobs, all you have is a specific task. There's no connection, no visible connection between the results, the good that's being done as a result of your labor. And so you have this massive turn of events where because of the stimulus checks and because of the universal basic income through the child tax credits, because of stock prices going up, because of crypto just exploding because of all the new money, you had a trigger come in where suddenly everybody's like, I can quit. I've got two months, three months, four months saved up. I can quit and I can.”
2021-12-12 · We Study Billionaires · TIP404: The Untold History of Money w/ Joe Brown · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Jobs for decades now have been absolute trash. I say that sympathetically. I've had jobs before where on my way home, I feel like crying. You know what? It's just absolute garbage. And Malcolm Gladwell talks about this. There are three components necessary to have a job feel meaningful. One of them is complexity. One of them is autonomy. And the third one is a short connection between seeing your work and seeing the results, the fruit of that labor. Many jobs today have no complexity. They're monotonous. You have one repeated task over and over and over again. Zero complexity. A lot of jobs that can be just done by a well-written computer program. And so complexity is out the window for many, many, many jobs. The second one is autonomy. The number one reason people quit their job is because they hate their boss.”
2021-12-12 · We Study Billionaires · TIP404: The Untold History of Money w/ Joe Brown · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“The real jobless claims actually went up. So complete false data. We still have a massive labor shortage. And so that is something that is consistent and persistent today. And unlike this is something that I probably have more of a contrarian view on than others, unlike some of the other things going on right now. I view this personally as a very good sign, a very good thing. Now, we obviously have kind of an elephant in the room reason why some people are getting fired or quitting because there are legal things coming out about who can work at certain jobs based on recent history and medical stuff. But that doesn't account for everything because a lot of when you look at new hires, it's also exploding. And so if you get pushed out of one job because of a specific reason, you wouldn't be able to then go get a new job. And so one of the trends that we're seeing right now is people quitting because they hate their jobs because most jobs, it is astonishing how many jobs.”
2021-12-12 · We Study Billionaires · TIP404: The Untold History of Money w/ Joe Brown · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So, right now, we have the tightest labor market in history, and today as of the day of this recording, jobs numbers came out. The jobless claims data shows that we have the lowest jobless claims since 1969. In over 50 years, and everybody running victory laps on this, trending on Twitter and things like that, when you look at the data, the real number, the number is only that low. It's 199,000 jobless claims. It's only that low because of seasonal adjustment. So that's them trying to smooth out the numbers. They've got a built-in method to smooth out the numbers. Well, they're smoothing out the numbers made it appear like it's the lowest jobless claims in 50 years. When you remove the adjustment, jobless claims actually increased, went up to like 260,000. They went up by 7.6%. And so the seasonal adjustment trying to smooth out data here clearly failed.”
2021-12-12 · We Study Billionaires · TIP404: The Untold History of Money w/ Joe Brown · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Than they're actually worth because somebody's printing money to buy them. It'd be like if Apple right now said, I will buy any iPhone for $3,000. Everybody with an old iPhone would turn it in for $3,000 because they're worth way less than that. They would soak up the entire market. So when you buy things with a money printer at an elevated price compared to what the natural price would be, you incentivize selling. And so a couple years ago, they soaked up so much of the treasury market that the Federal Reserve now owns more treasuries than all central banks combined. This happens. Federal Reserve will own all treasuries besides the U.S. banking system. Nobody's going to hold on to them anymore because they're worthless, but somebody's paying full pop for them. And that's exactly what happened 300 years ago in France. The people like Richard Cantillon, who we know of through the, because of the Cantoulon effect, he sold everything, bought gold and silver, became fantastically wealthy from it. And that's exactly what happened today.”
2021-12-12 · We Study Billionaires · TIP404: The Untold History of Money w/ Joe Brown · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Issued paper currency that was backed by gold, silver, and shares of his Mississippi company, so land in the United States. He used that paper currency to inflate the money supply so that he could pay for economic agendas. Well, pretty soon problems cropped up. And what happened was people were selling Mississippi shares because they were, you know, hey, this might not be worth what the price of these shares are at. He had to print more dollars to buy shares of the Mississippi company. Well, what's backing up the money? Well, shares of the Mississippi company. So you have this strange turn of events where you're printing money to buy something to keep the price up, but that price being up is what's backing up the value of the currency that you're printing. But what are we doing today? We're printing money to buy treasuries to keep the price of treasuries up because they back up the financial system. And so pretty soon people realized, hey, if they're buying these things at full price, that means that I can sell them at a premium. They're worth less, but I can sell them higher.”
2021-12-12 · We Study Billionaires · TIP404: The Untold History of Money w/ Joe Brown · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Mortgage backed securities, they were basically a bod that wasn't making payments anymore because all the mortgages inside weren't making payments. Everybody's trying to dump them. Nobody has a collateral they thought they had and you bring down the system. So the first thing they would do, or the second thing would be, hey, if you've got one of these treasuries, it still counts as full collateral. Do not sell it. And then finally, what they would probably do is open up swap lines and emergency channels in order to buy treasuries at full price from anybody who is trying to sell them. Because another thing that they would not want to happen is treasury prices to just collapse because the entire global financial system sits on treasuries and you can't have treasury prices collapse. So this looks very similar like none of this, if you study history, none of this should be surprising. It's all happened before. 300 years ago in France, John Law was the guy who was in charge of the central bank in France and he got the entire country to give up their gold and silver.”
2021-12-12 · We Study Billionaires · TIP404: The Untold History of Money w/ Joe Brown · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Who has debt owns a treasury that they would have stopped receiving those interest payments on, they keep on receiving those interest payments. So you have a transition immediately where the Federal Reserve enters into a position of fiscal authority over Congress, because that was Congress's domain through the Treasury, and now the Federal Reserve steps in in that place. What they might also do, which Jerome Powell has stated that it would be unthinkable to do this, but he wouldn't rule it out in case of a bad enough crisis, which means if the United States defaults, that's a bad enough crisis, they would take on other payments as well, like military, social security, Medicare, or whatever. Now, the final thing that they would do is at least for U.S. banks, they would change the reserve requirements so that a defaulted treasury would count towards reserve requirements. Because the last thing you want is a repeat of the financial crisis when all the banks are trying to dump worthless securities.”
2021-12-12 · We Study Billionaires · TIP404: The Untold History of Money w/ Joe Brown · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Thinking sits at the Federal Reserve because they have a plan on what they will do if the United States does default. And just to be clear, defaulting on debt means, hey, we have a debt ceiling. It's all a legal thing because it's just numbers in a computer. And they run up debt ceiling and they cannot take on new debt to pay off the old debt. So their old debt, they can't make the interest payments on. And then if it's bad enough, they can't make payments to all the other things they have to make payments to, like government salaries and military and medicare things like that. And so the first thing that the Federal Reserve would likely do is part of their plan is making the interest payments on the defaulted debt. And so right away, you have a de facto merger of monetary and fiscal policy. You lose all independence from the Federal Reserve. They've never been independent completely from the government. They've been independent based on partisanship. But this merges them completely. You get a merger between the central bank and the central government. They make those payments so that any”
2021-12-12 · We Study Billionaires · TIP404: The Untold History of Money w/ Joe Brown · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Is one of the most craziest things that I have stumbled upon recently. And a lot of people look at the federal government defaulting as kind of like a black swan, not even, like less than that, because they think that it's just impossible. Like it'll never, ever happen. And a black swan is not something that is unpredictable. A black swan that is something that's predictable that's just considered basically impossible. Like you could have imagined when people only thought white swans existed, you could have imagined, hey, we can find a black swan someday. But clearly that's impossible because swans are white. Well, we can imagine the government defaulting, but clearly that's impossible because all they have to do is come up with a vote to raise the debt ceiling. And given today's level of political polarization, in my book, it's not a zero percent. The odds aren't zero percent of defaulting. And clearly the same line of”
2021-12-12 · We Study Billionaires · TIP404: The Untold History of Money w/ Joe Brown · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Date fund or a balanced mutual fund, or if you have cash in a bank account, you are a lender. And so those are the ways, those are the areas of purchasing power that get that purchasing power transferred away from them in order for that deleveraging to happen.”
2021-12-12 · We Study Billionaires · TIP404: The Untold History of Money w/ Joe Brown · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Usually, policymakers opt for slicing off pieces of everybody's purchasing power in order to repay that debt because the debt has grown so large. And who are the biggest debtors? The governments and the large corporations who usually have a large amount of influence on the government. And so when you are choosing between inflation or deflation, because you have to deleverage somehow, the people with the power are going to choose the ones that the path that benefits them the most. And inflation benefits the borrowers because they don't have to pay it back in real purchasing power in real wealth. They get to pay it back with newly created money that was purchasing power transferred to them as a result of everybody else, all the savers and lenders losing it. And just in case you're looking at this and thinking, okay, well, it's a good thing. I'm not a lender then. If you have got a pension or a 401k with a target.”
2021-12-12 · We Study Billionaires · TIP404: The Untold History of Money w/ Joe Brown · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Amount of purchasing power in the system being transferred or being spent. And I like to use the example of a pizza a lot. If you have a pizza, that represents the total wealth in the system. The number of slices in the pizza represent the number of currency units in the system. You got eight slices of pizza. That's $8, let's say, represent the entire economy. If you have another participant enter the economy then and say, I would like a slice of pizza, one person can give up their slice and give it to that new person and then you still have eight slices of pizza and each slice represents the same amount of wealth, same amount of pizza. Or you can have every single person with a slice of pizza shave a tiny slice off of their slice, make an extra ninth slice, and then you have nine slices now, but they're all smaller than they were before. And so when you have the amount of leverage that we have right now, you”
2021-12-12 · We Study Billionaires · TIP404: The Untold History of Money w/ Joe Brown · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I only spent eight, and so I have a surplus of two now this month. I can spend 12, or I can borrow from the future with debt, and I can spend $12,000 by putting two of it on a credit card. Well, next month, I have to pay that back by only spending $8,000 of my income. And so leverage is simply taking purchasing power from the future and bringing that forward into the present. There is no way around that. The only way that it's dealt with is either deflation or inflation. And so deflation would be the example of next month austerity. I only spend $8,000 and use that leftover two to pay back what I spent last month. Inflation is more insidious because the effects of it are not understood or seen by most people, at least at first. And so the reason why you can deleverage through inflation is because either way, there's the same”
2021-12-12 · We Study Billionaires · TIP404: The Untold History of Money w/ Joe Brown · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“The debt jubilee, we look back at history and they can seem very apparent when these things happen. But while they actually take much longer for these things to unfold than it looks like when you're just reading a history book. One thing that is true though is that the deleveraging always happens. Sometimes deleveraging happens through inflation and sometimes it happens through deflation. But deleveraging following leverage is an iron law of economics that you cannot avoid the deleveraging. It does happen. The only question is whether it's through inflation or deflation. And the reason that that happens is because leverage itself is simply borrowing purchasing power from the future into the present. And so if you think about, let's say you earn $10,000 every single month. The only way for me to spend more than $10,000 is if last month”
2021-12-12 · We Study Billionaires · TIP404: The Untold History of Money w/ Joe Brown · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Volatility that they were scared of happening in the financial markets. One other reason for the large level of mortgage-backed securities was to push mortgage rates down. So when mortgage rates go down, there is a huge amount of extra spending power that hits the American wallet. Everybody refinanced their homes. And either cash out refinance and you get a large chunk of change to go do whatever you want with, or now your mortgage rate is much lower and now you have extra cash compared from what you were paying before your expenses go down. And then anybody who wants to get into a house can do that, although that wasn't the primary goal. And so the increase in income for Americans through mortgage rates being lowered was a huge reason for mortgage-backed securities being purchased. And so that's what they've been buying, the treasuries, mortgage-backed securities, and then the other things held at the treasury.”
2021-12-12 · We Study Billionaires · TIP404: The Untold History of Money w/ Joe Brown · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT