YouSaid · the spoken record

Joe Davis

lines on the record: 100
first: 2019-02-15
most recent: 2019-02-15
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

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“For like single digits, right? To this day, I refuse to calculate what I've lost, but power of compounding state invested in the markets. That was something since I've learned at Vanguard.”
2019-02-15 · Masters in Business · Vanguard's Joe Davis Discusses Global Economics (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I knew Satan was important. My parents, my dad turned me all into Vanguard investing with my summer lawn mowing and construction money, but I tell you this, I mean, so I told you before I had really learned the benefits of Vanguard Investing, 1997, 98, I'm down in grad school. I'm using, I was using Amazon as early as 95. If you remember ordering Amazon 95, you'd get a free coffee mug with a new book. I had to write them to say stop sending me coffee mugs.”
2019-02-15 · Masters in Business · Vanguard's Joe Davis Discusses Global Economics (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I go back to that why I said before read, read, read. I mean, three hours a day, everything that's going on in the profession and everything tangential to that practitioner research, books of the leading authorities in the field, I mean, creating new, so in my field, investment research or even portfolio management, Barry, if we can stand on the shoulders of what others have written, that's like 90% of the task. And so if you can just have a good understanding of what other smart people have commented about, that is the context that allows you to incrementally perhaps contribute to the debate. So read, read, read what I'd be doing on both the math side and the history. I think the one mistake the economics profession made pre-GFC is too much math, too little history.”
2019-02-15 · Masters in Business · Vanguard's Joe Davis Discusses Global Economics (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“But what my daddy always said in institutes such as Lesmar, you have to pay for your own insurance and you have to pay for all the gas”
2019-02-15 · Masters in Business · Vanguard's Joe Davis Discusses Global Economics (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So I was actually very kids. Yeah, but you know, my parents, I give my parents, I was actually lucky and fortunate to have my own car. I was 16.”
2019-02-15 · Masters in Business · Vanguard's Joe Davis Discusses Global Economics (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Oh man, I was 16. My parents said if you get good enough grades, you can actually drive to school, which was a big deal It was a Chevy. Cavalier white. It's probably a 86, 85.”
2019-02-15 · Masters in Business · Vanguard's Joe Davis Discusses Global Economics (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“No, heavy bags. Yeah. It hurts the wrists when you first start, but it is worth it. It's a good. I've been doing that in the winter because sometimes you can't run on the weekend with the ice. But yeah, it's like whatever you do, as long as you diversify a little bit, keeps up the excitement.”
2019-02-15 · Masters in Business · Vanguard's Joe Davis Discusses Global Economics (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Oh, just I just try to stay, you know, just try to stay fit. I realize in with every passing day my metabolism is slower than the day before. So again, I also find I'm actually better at research and creativity the more I do work out. So I've gotten less into the heavyweights, like TRX, kettlebells. Bill McNab, obviously, you know. Yeah, I know Bill, chairman of, he turned me on to a lot of different exercises. He's great. So I should ask him what's his next latest exercise technique.”
2019-02-15 · Masters in Business · Vanguard's Joe Davis Discusses Global Economics (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“You and Warren Buffett and Charlie Munk. I try. I try to get up early to read. I make up for lost time on the weekend. But if it's not spent with a family, you'll probably find me either reading history or the latest technology or math to keep abreast of technology trends. I don't care as much of what I am reading as long as I feel like I'm being intellectually challenged and remaining intellectually curious.”
2019-02-15 · Masters in Business · Vanguard's Joe Davis Discusses Global Economics (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It was time for my family, my wife. We've been together a long time ever since college when she accepted my offer for a first date. I'm a lucky man. Two children who are growing up quickly. I have a 15 and a 13-year-old who weren't born yet when I came to Vanguard. Vanguard babies, is that a thing? Yeah, yeah, maybe. But, I mean, I try to read as much. I'm a firm believer in reading. I believe everyone should read. This is just my humble opinion, at least three hours a day.”
2019-02-15 · Masters in Business · Vanguard's Joe Davis Discusses Global Economics (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And so I think I'd like to think I'm a humble person, but every so often, as my mom says, it's good to eat a little humble pie. And so that was a great lesson to me, the need for hard work. It was also a testament that if you work hard enough, you can learn a lot of things. And so to this day, that test is seared in my brain of, you know, when those days happen, because they do happen, you can recover if you're willing to put in the hard work.”
2019-02-15 · Masters in Business · Vanguard's Joe Davis Discusses Global Economics (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It was out of 100. Really? I didn't realize it was out of 100. I'm assuming maybe it's 30. Right. I got an 8 out of 20. That was the wake-up call. So what the lesson was of failing, I came close to actually failing that class first. All I realized two things. One is I'm never going to be a microeconomist. Right. Secondly, you're not as smart Joe as you think you are.”
2019-02-15 · Masters in Business · Vanguard's Joe Davis Discusses Global Economics (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I played in high school. I was lucky enough to be on the team. So I learned a lot of failure athletically. I tend to be a better student. So I learned humility early in life. But I tell you, one time that stuck with me failed. I generally got very good grades, which is why you go to grad school. I tried to stay in school as long as possible. I'm with you. My first class down in Duke in the PhD program was for game theory. So leading a teacher in world game theory, Herve Mulan. And the first test, I knew I didn't do well, but he writes on the board what the average was. It was a 12.”
2019-02-15 · Masters in Business · Vanguard's Joe Davis Discusses Global Economics (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, too, I mean, I felt a lot. I always thought I'd play in the NFL until I realized I'm only five foot nine. Well, did you play?”
2019-02-15 · Masters in Business · Vanguard's Joe Davis Discusses Global Economics (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I'm saying 15 index. No, I know, but I'm saying 50 is overpriced. 50% is probably stolen. If you say a low-cost, high-value product, actively managed, passively managed, perhaps rap advice around that, that's the adoption of a wonderful technology that I think if there's an S-curve to it in the US, we're probably only in a third or fourth inning. Outside the United States, we're probably in the game, the first inning just started. So I'm excited for investors. Regardless of who's firm we can bring those who brings them those services, but it's an exciting time, I think, to be an investor, despite the low return environment.”
2019-02-15 · Masters in Business · Vanguard's Joe Davis Discusses Global Economics (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, but again, I look at the world. I look at the inverse of that, which is probably roughly 50% of investments perhaps are still in too high cost products”
2019-02-15 · Masters in Business · Vanguard's Joe Davis Discusses Global Economics (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, you know, being part of Vanguard, it's a great company to be a part of. I'm proud of our culture. I'm excited about just all investors globally. I think they're going to have a great opportunity for the adoption of what I think is a high value technology, which is low cost portfolios. I think we're still only on the third or fourth inning of this United States bearing.”
2019-02-15 · Masters in Business · Vanguard's Joe Davis Discusses Global Economics (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“We'll split up. She does the hard stuff, which is the baking. She's very precise measuring. Despite all my analytical background, I find cooking therapeutic. I only look in the ingredient list. I never measure. I can never replicate anything I do. That, of course, implies it actually tasted good. But I find it's actually a good creative release, whether it's cutting vegetables or just spending time with the family. I think my big turning point was not worrying whether or not the dish turns out right. We was worried about making a mistake.”
2019-02-15 · Masters in Business · Vanguard's Joe Davis Discusses Global Economics (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“No, no, but I tell you, this book at Franklin, they give you everything. It's a famous, I believe they're in Austin, Texas. So I've never been to the restaurant, but I've read their book. It's worth a read.”
2019-02-15 · Masters in Business · Vanguard's Joe Davis Discusses Global Economics (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Study on between the tensions of the US and China. You can build Michael Pillsbury, the 100-year marathon. I don't necessarily agree with all of it, but it's worth a read. I also, my wife and I love to cook, so I have some favorite cookbooks. We probably have over 100 of them. Really? If you care about good barbecue, my friend at Vanguard, he turned me on to Franklin's barbecue. So it's a barbecue. Franklin's barbecue. I love barbecue. It is. I think I've underlined more in that book than I have my economics textbooks in grad school. If you want to know how to cook great brisket and barbecue, that's easy. You just cook the hell.”
2019-02-15 · Masters in Business · Vanguard's Joe Davis Discusses Global Economics (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And there are stories of them trying to test radio cell towers at nighttime in Philly driving around because they didn't know how to put the antenna. I mean, it's some great stories. I'm a great reader of, I try to read a lot on political and economic history. So anything written by David McCulloch, you know, the Wright Brothers is his best. It's a fascinating book, in my judgment. I read a lot on, if you want to read a little bit more of an alarming”
2019-02-15 · Masters in Business · Vanguard's Joe Davis Discusses Global Economics (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I think I had to read it twice because I didn't understand it all the first time. And then more recently, individuals such as Cliff Asinus at AQR, I'm a fan of their research and I think they do good work. And I think they treat data with the humility and respect it deserves.”
2019-02-15 · Masters in Business · Vanguard's Joe Davis Discusses Global Economics (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I'll give you two. One is Jack Bogle clearly. I knew of his work and was educating myself before I came to Vanguard, but then I realized how much I did not know. Secondly, even something I started reading in high school, Bert Malkiel ran and walked down Wall Street. It was one of the first books around investments that I ever read, Barry. Now”
2019-02-15 · Masters in Business · Vanguard's Joe Davis Discusses Global Economics (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I think he was. In fact, he's now a close neighbor of mine. And actually, I see him running sometimes on the weekend. So again, I have high praise for Morgan. Another early mentor was Bob Atwooder at Vanguard. He took chances on me. He could have hired any economist. Now, I was the only economist at Vanguard, so maybe didn't have much choice. But Bob was the head of fixed income. He was tough. He was demanding. He was also fair. And I learned a lot from him. And again, I will always owe Bob and many others at Vanguard for taking chances on me.”
2019-02-15 · Masters in Business · Vanguard's Joe Davis Discusses Global Economics (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“But the first was before I came to Vanguard. So after my first year Duke in the PhD program, I actually left because I was unsure if I wanted to go into academia. And I worked for a company right in Westchester, Pennsylvania. Again, five minutes from where I grew up. So I tend to stay close to home here, Barry, as a theme. And I worked for now what's called Moody's Economy.com. Oh, sure. So I worked with Mark Zandy, a great experience. I learned from Mark some of the things you don't learn as an economist in grad school, the economic data, how to really write well for particularly a non-academic audience, how to present to a large audience with not being too esoteric. So he was a great mentor. I learned a lot.”
2019-02-15 · Masters in Business · Vanguard's Joe Davis Discusses Global Economics (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“No, it's economics, but I did it. I created effectively a pre-GDP measure going all the way back to the 1790s. I didn't know what I was getting into. If I'd known how much work it was, Barry, I would never have done it for the 19th century, an annual measure of business cycles and economic activity. And the MBR researchers at the time were very courteous to allow me to participate formally. Eventually they kicked me out because I'm in the private sector. I think that's fair. But to this day, I'm a fervent reader and participant in economic history.”
2019-02-15 · Masters in Business · Vanguard's Joe Davis Discusses Global Economics (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Which is astonishing. Astonishing. If I actually had an arm, if I could have actually played baseball professionally, I could probably hit my parents' house. The other thing is I was actually, to my understanding, I was one of the few, in fact, perhaps the only non-academic to have been led in the National Bureau of Economic Research. So when I did my dissertation was on economic history, not a very popular topic. It's kind of had a renaissance. So wait, your PhD is...”
2019-02-15 · Masters in Business · Vanguard's Joe Davis Discusses Global Economics (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“One's plan. I just think that my job at Vanguard and my team's job is just to help convey the risk and the trade-offs of investors trying to make tough choices under uncertainty. More often than not, it's a good reason not to change. When you understand where the risks are. But that shouldn't mean that investors don't necessarily never don't ever change. Let's be mindful of what the trade-off we're making.”
2019-02-15 · Masters in Business · Vanguard's Joe Davis Discusses Global Economics (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“No, I mean, they actually were back into our fair value range first time in over two years. So that's a general good thing. We're still looking for a little bit more muta returns just because we have lower expected returns for the risk-free rate, for the cash rate, the Fed fund. And that hasn't changed. We've been of that mind for a long time. But yeah, I do not, you know, we're not alarmists on the market. I think the investment environment going forward, we've said for two years, Barry, it's going to require diligence and patience. And I'm not a patient person because you have a low expected return, but you can't avoid to miss periods when that risk premium is rewarding you. So, you know, I think the temptation is going to be to what I call shiny new objects, to eke out of how I return. Not to say that some, you know, you just got to be careful here. I think you got to just stay stick to the plan. If you're going to take on more risk. Stay the course. Well, and if you're going to take all more risks, just do it eyes wide open. That doesn't mean one doesn't change.”
2019-02-15 · Masters in Business · Vanguard's Joe Davis Discusses Global Economics (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah. Oh, certainly. And we've had that for over three years. Actually, this year is the first time that we did not materially downgrade our expected 10-year turnout look for a balanced portfolio further, right? So we've been getting more guarded every year as the markets have actually rewarded us on average. So a little bit more constructive outside the US over the next five or ten years. The US. So I think smart investors, you know, even a simple contrarian strategy of rebalancing is probably putting more money to work at the margin outside of the US and keeping money in the fixed income. Our long drum beat has almost been boring, quite frankly, of there's greater risk in the equity market than the bond market. That's why you would want there as a long-term investor, but also let's be cautious of taking too much risk in this market.”
2019-02-15 · Masters in Business · Vanguard's Joe Davis Discusses Global Economics (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So, despite low growth environment and low interest rates, our indicators were saying that the US stock market was clearly undervalued in 2009, 2010, despite some saying it's a new normal and all that on the investment side. We were saying a very high expected return premium for U.S. stocks that remained pretty constructive up until more recently and only recently did the U.S. stock market ratio break above that fair value range. And again, we have no predictability on next year's return, but it does have some predictability in where the stock market, the average return will be over the next five or ten years. So is there a mean reversion? Yes, but I think we just have to be careful of what mean we are reverting to, whether it's interest rates or valuations.”
2019-02-15 · Masters in Business · Vanguard's Joe Davis Discusses Global Economics (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“You should hire people. You should have higher PEs all else equal. It's called the fair value. It's just like sometimes full employment's at four. Sometimes it's at 5%. Sometimes fair value for the US dollars high or low. Now, again, I do not know exactly what the fair value is, but I can tell you that the range that the stock market should gravitate towards either up towards it or down towards it, that fair value can change through time if economic conditions and trend conditions warrant it, which is why only in the past year did we...”
2019-02-15 · Masters in Business · Vanguard's Joe Davis Discusses Global Economics (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, so the valuation great research. I mean, the cape going back to Bob Schiller at Yale and others, that measure is informative for whether the stock market is fairly valued. Our issue is with investors comparing that to the long run average. So they just draw a line across their piece of paper that Cape's been sometimes below, and to your point, Barry, it's been generally above ever the past 20 years. Well, what's actually important is that you actually have to control for what is the fair value that the market should, the gravitational pull, should go to. It shouldn't always go to the same average. And so our analysis, and we had an academic research published last year that showed that you can actually significantly improve your likelihood of projecting five and ten year out returns significantly.”
2019-02-15 · Masters in Business · Vanguard's Joe Davis Discusses Global Economics (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So, even though that's below where the 70s and 80s average was, inflation was higher then. So I would tell investors, if you worry about or believe that interest rates are going to rise materially, long-term interest rates, mortgage rates, 10-year treasury rates, you have to believe that inflation is fundamentally going to accelerate on a trend basis.”
2019-02-15 · Masters in Business · Vanguard's Joe Davis Discusses Global Economics (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And I use interest rates as an example because even in Vanguard, we've had some clients understandably concerned over rapid rise in interest rates in ban yields because they live through the 70s. Well, from a very low, yes, but concerns of a bond bear market. And our analysis said that although possible, extremely unlikely. And that's what just because interest rates are low today doesn't mean they have the revert to some average. My question is, what's the danger in mean reversion is what mean are we reverting to? This is the same mistake. We believe some investors have made over the past several years with the cape, the Schiller Cape ratio. Nothing wrong with the sickle adjusted PE ratio or the level of interest rates, but what is normal? That's conditional on what are the forces that drive those factors. So in interest rates, for example, I believe that a fair value, our fair value for long-term interest rates hasn't changed in the U.S. It's roughly 3%. Right.”
2019-02-15 · Masters in Business · Vanguard's Joe Davis Discusses Global Economics (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yes. And the momentum is now moving. Well, I think actually the pattern of bond yields, so I know, again, including Vanguard's founder, Jack Bogle, rest in peace, long believer in mean reversion. Why I'm bringing this up is I think mean reversion is clearly the most powerful force in finance. It's also the most dangerous.”
2019-02-15 · Masters in Business · Vanguard's Joe Davis Discusses Global Economics (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Simmo is actually a little bit farther out, right? Because the market's forward looking Past 40 to 50 years, not to blame the Fed, but the Fed has generally been in overly restrictive territory to tam down inflation, right? So the twos have been elevated and above the 10s. I mean, excuse me, above cash a year out, anticipating further Fed tightening at that point, perhaps the market's pricing in a quote-unquote Fed mistake or overly restrictive. That's the power of the yield curve. It's not infallible. But if you were going to pick one indicator, and I wouldn't because you're reducing your odds of success. But if you did, that would be the one to hang your hat on.”
2019-02-15 · Masters in Business · Vanguard's Joe Davis Discusses Global Economics (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And again, in Vanguard, we got statistics on our back saying listen, I believe there's a portfolio of indicators you should look at, whether trying to divain the future returns of the stock market, probability recession, odds of a bear market. But that said, if I was going to pick one indicator to say, are we going into recession or not? It is the yield curve. And it's the traditional, what I would call the academic one. 10-0, 10s in three months, 10 months in cash. That's the most accurate. It's the most genuine. I know some said, hey, in a zero interest rate environment, low interest rate environment, it's distorted. I don't buy it. If we're going into a deep downturn, I imagine the 10-year treasury could be a 1%. And that curve is easily inverting. So I think that's the bond market has, it gives you more heads up on a downturn than the stock market does.”
2019-02-15 · Masters in Business · Vanguard's Joe Davis Discusses Global Economics (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“If you and I are running a business to add a new worker, to let a worker go, that's a significant investment, 60, 70% of corporate American costs, cost structure. So job growth is probably the most meaningful.”
2019-02-15 · Masters in Business · Vanguard's Joe Davis Discusses Global Economics (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, I think GDP, we put too much emphasis on that. I think we do. I mean, I think there's a lot of accounting regularities. I mean, GDP can accelerate for a time just because businesses have slowed their growth and inventories are building. There's a little bit of bean counting to it. Again, it's valuable to have came out of even war planning decades ago. World War I, World War II. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Decades, government officials did not know what the economy was producing. And so to track that. So great development, but has this limitations. I mean, if I was going to focus on 01, at the end of the day, it's job growth.”
2019-02-15 · Masters in Business · Vanguard's Joe Davis Discusses Global Economics (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Across the broad economy because every indicator goes through fits and starts of saying being very valuable and then not being valuable. So I'd say the answer to your question is we look at all of them and then extract from that what are the common two or three signals that we could say this is the trend and the momentum in the economy rather than pick any one signal.”
2019-02-15 · Masters in Business · Vanguard's Joe Davis Discusses Global Economics (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I'll give you Barry. I genuinely believe this, and we do this. We look at all of them. So we for a long time since I've been a Vanguard, we use big data techniques to say, listen, every signal, every economic statistic, jobless claims, non-farm payroll, manufacturing is, they all have some signal. I don't think you necessarily look at one stock to say how's the broad market doing? So we'd look at all of them. And see what is an extract from that? What is the momentum and the common signal?”
2019-02-15 · Masters in Business · Vanguard's Joe Davis Discusses Global Economics (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“That I don't know. I wish as I'm trying to be careful here with my statement. I wish, though, the political environment wasn't so polarized. I think it's natural and it's actually a healthy environment when we're debating. But if we're debating and listening, where I worry about is when in any society, forget politics for this time, any society that we're not listening to each other. And so we're talking beyond each other.”
2019-02-15 · Masters in Business · Vanguard's Joe Davis Discusses Global Economics (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“The rate of the level of income inequality may remain high. And so these, what some call populistic tensions in the world may remain elevated. That had told us two years ago that at any election where in a country where income inequality has risen significantly, I would say the election is going to be closer than anticipated. I can be shocked at the outcome. I'm not a political handicapper, but it says that we should expect surprises because I think there is, again, back to this happiness can be relative, the rise of income inequality in a low growth environment has led to some painful losses of some jobs, opportunities.”
2019-02-15 · Masters in Business · Vanguard's Joe Davis Discusses Global Economics (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It's certainly stalled if you define globalization traditionally, which is fair by trade. I mean, our idea multiplier rises above that and say, although trade does matter, it's the trade of ideas of knowledge. If I'm exposed to your idea, Barry, even if you live halfway around the world and that leads me to a new idea, that is what has changed history. Now trade sometimes encapsulates an idea, a trade for a new machine or product, and so you can infer knowledge. But I think we have stalled in the globalization of trade of goods across borders. The biggest reason for the rise in populism and related to that is the rise of income inequality. And I think a lot of academic research would show that more of it has been driven by technology than by potentially unfair trade practices. So what that means is if the pace of technological change is not slowing, that means unfortunately.”
2019-02-15 · Masters in Business · Vanguard's Joe Davis Discusses Global Economics (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“On average, may be spending more for job retraining than they will be on IT. So that's the sort of thing I just, you know, and that's not, again, there's cautious optimism in my counsel to my daughter, but it's not Pollyannish. I mean, there's challenges we all face and technology can cut both ways.”
2019-02-15 · Masters in Business · Vanguard's Joe Davis Discusses Global Economics (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, it was part. I mean, we overconsumed, as many of your past guests have illuminated. But again, that's where we focused on the trend. The trend was starting to bend in 2001, 2002, which is why we come back to productivity. And again, I would hope that your listeners, I do not wish or intend to be portrayed as a techno-optimist. I mean, I think there are reasons to be optimistic. But, you know, productivity will pick up. That I have high conviction in over the next couple of years. And it's an environment of potentially higher growth that no one is anticipating the same way in the mid-90s. No one was anticipating the late 90s. But that does not mean there's not going to be headwinds and challenges. The need for job training as an example on automation if we're right in the pickup on automation is significant, even if we do not have widespread job losses. I mean, there could be a very well 10 years from now companies.”
2019-02-15 · Masters in Business · Vanguard's Joe Davis Discusses Global Economics (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I think we are globally. I mean, that sort of tight grip continues to recede. I think you see it even from some investors waiting for the next shoe to drop. The risk aversion? The risk aversion savings. I mean, some of it in the U.S. probably needed. I think we got a little bit better balanced. We've clearly seen it in the regulatory front across various markets over the past several years. With every passing day, though, it kind of recedes in the rear view mirror. So we're not fully out of the woods, but we have come a long way.”
2019-02-15 · Masters in Business · Vanguard's Joe Davis Discusses Global Economics (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, there's a zero correlation. It looks like a shotgun on a page, which as an economist, you kind of talking yourself out of a job. I think that's important because rather more than expected growth, it's the price paid for growth. It's valuation. That's why, yeah, I would say markets such as the UK, China matters. That's why even as the economic performance has been languished at times in the US, we were very... optimistic on US investment returns. You can see our first outlook in 2009-2010. We thought we'd be above average historical returns. If anything, we were too low in our distribution. We got above the mean. Now as the economy has gotten closer to full employment, every year we've gotten more conservative and guarded and our investment returns is because of the valuation you point to.”
2019-02-15 · Masters in Business · Vanguard's Joe Davis Discusses Global Economics (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, they'll be the largest expensive stock market. Yes. I mean, I think here's the thing I loved how you just mentioned that, Barry, because you've hit on this for a long time. And so I'm going to say this as an economist. I think economic growth is often for investors, is focused on too much. So I could show you a chart. And we were showing this for a decade actually in the depths of 2009, 2010. I can show you a nice handy-dandy chart that shows the relationship between long-run economic growth of a country and its stock returns.”
2019-02-15 · Masters in Business · Vanguard's Joe Davis Discusses Global Economics (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source