YouSaid · the spoken record

Joe McCann

lines on the record: 47
first: 2025-01-08
most recent: 2025-01-08
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

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“We saw this year, you probably get an opportunity for a rip again. So the reason I suggest all this is the run that we've had over the past call it 23 and 24, particularly in the stock market, it becomes difficult to replicate that a third year in a row. The guys at Funstratt, Tom Lee and his team are really, really good at this type of stuff, and they see the same thing. They see like, you know, the second half being a little bit more dicey, but they ultimately see S&P higher for the year. Is it 20 plus percent? Probably not. And until we see like a true decoupling of crypto from equities markets, which tends to happen throughout the year, it's hard for me to suggest that like, oh, yeah, this is just going to be up and to the right for Q1 through Q4. I think Q1 is going to be the time to make money. Q2, Q3, a bit more defensive. Q4, you could actually start to.”
2025-01-08 · Forward Guidance · FLASH UPDATE: The Dollar Rally Isn’t Over — What It Means For Risk Assets | Joe McCann · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“All of these types of things that ultimately will push risk assets higher. That's why I think Q1 is probably like, I don't think we're in easy mode anymore, as I wrote in my piece. I think the easy money was in 2024. But I do think the easiest quarter this year is likely Q1. Q2 and Q3, I mean, I struggle to see right now as we sit here today a reason to be, you know, kind of overly bullish just from a seasonal standpoint as well as the S&P coming on back-to-back 20% plus years. Historically, you end up having some challenges in Q2 and Q3, our seasonals and historicals actually relevant anymore. I'm not totally sure, but as a risk manager, I look at Q2 and Q3 and go, probably a bit more defensive, right? And then Q4, I think later into Q4, very similar to what.”
2025-01-08 · Forward Guidance · FLASH UPDATE: The Dollar Rally Isn’t Over — What It Means For Risk Assets | Joe McCann · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, so I think Trump actually getting back in the presidency, Trump actually having his kind of first hundred days benchmark of what he's going to do, the potential for upside there is just enormous because you just don't know what this guy's going to do, right? And the sentiment is they're coming in to really shake things up. I think in his first presidency, even he was surprised that he won and he was woefully unprepared for getting the right people around him. I think the quality of people in his cabinet and in his kind of like outer circles at this point is infinitely more qualified and better than his previous administration. And with that, you know, it doesn't take a rocket science to figure out that if you have a lot of these really smart, capable people in your orbit, that could benefit the economy, you know, immigration policy.”
2025-01-08 · Forward Guidance · FLASH UPDATE: The Dollar Rally Isn’t Over — What It Means For Risk Assets | Joe McCann · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Your point, I also think that a lot of the reason that China's been holding off is that with the dollar so strong, if they stimulated super hard, like their currency would be get wrecked. So could potentially see some sort of agreement happen, which Trump wants that occurs. So it feels like there's a lot of these factors sort of confluencing together for what I feel like would be a pretty good second half of 2025. So how are you thinking about all those and yeah, just more of that high time frame horizon?”
2025-01-08 · Forward Guidance · FLASH UPDATE: The Dollar Rally Isn’t Over — What It Means For Risk Assets | Joe McCann · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“That to me would signal there's more liquidity that's coming in the market. If you look at China in 2024 out of like, I think G20 countries, they were the least accretive to global liquidity. In fact, they were net detractive. That is historically not what China does. They tend to inject tons of liquidity and they just haven't done it. So if they start to see like the bazooka, so to speak, or big liquidity injections from China, that has to flow into crypto and risk assets in some capacity, even if the narrative itself catches up and it doesn't actually materialize in terms of price. I think that there's some macro specific things that would also tip off a bottom, particularly a peak in the dollar index and then, of course, something like M1 money supply expansion out of China.”
2025-01-08 · Forward Guidance · FLASH UPDATE: The Dollar Rally Isn’t Over — What It Means For Risk Assets | Joe McCann · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And this is art, not science for the most part. Yes, you can run machine learning models against sentiment and try to get a score or something. But for the most part, when people are quitting crypto or as I like to say, they're on suicide watch, I guess typically when you get long. You can obviously look at, you know, I use a lot of technical analysis indicators like RSI and Bollinger Bands and stochastics and Williams percent are in concert when these things get grossly oversold on say a weekly timeframe high probability that you're near a bottom. So there's like that aspect, there's sentiment, there's technical analysis. But I think from a macro lens, that's where things get, I think, much more salient when we get close to a bottom. One of the things that I've been looking for for months now is expansion of M1 money supply out of China, still not happening.”
2025-01-08 · Forward Guidance · FLASH UPDATE: The Dollar Rally Isn’t Over — What It Means For Risk Assets | Joe McCann · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And that's what my point is that this is all flow driven. So if you zoom out a bit, like the Coinbase premium slash discount is the end result of what's happening with ETF flows. So if you're a fast money trader or a day trader or something, it can be very valuable for short-term trading setups or intermediate-term trading setups. But the reality is this comes down to flows. And so if we see an uptick in flows for Bitcoin ETF, you should see a Coinbase premium and you should see the price rise, right? It's really not much more than that. The problem with these is that they tend to be lagging indicators unless you're trading them like actively. Basically any technical analysis indicator is a lagging indicator, right? And so what then guides your decision making on when there is a bottom? I think on one hand sentiment.”
2025-01-08 · Forward Guidance · FLASH UPDATE: The Dollar Rally Isn’t Over — What It Means For Risk Assets | Joe McCann · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So, yeah, the Coinbase indicator, premium indicator, it's open source on GitHub. You can go copy and paste it and use it. That one is, it's just crazy how accurate it is. And this isn't like proprietary and asymmetric. You can track this easily, right? Which is one of the reasons why it's open source. People should just have access to it. That worked really well in 2024, right? So when basically when Coinbase, when there was a Coinbase premium, you got long, when it was a Coinbase discount, you got flat or short. And the hit rate's just ridiculous.”
2025-01-08 · Forward Guidance · FLASH UPDATE: The Dollar Rally Isn’t Over — What It Means For Risk Assets | Joe McCann · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So, you know, from a trading perspective, Sui trades really well. And if this thing trades back below like $2, I think it's a long before, but the amount of interest in Sui as kind of the next solata, that narrative's very powerful. And it's one of the top performing L1s. I think it was might have been the top performing L1 in 2020. I don't recall off the top of my head, but the amount of interest behind the project and what's driving the price is meaningful. And it's hard to debate the narrative that's pushing behind Suite is kind of the next Solana. Now, they need a lot more apps. They need a lot more liquidity, but these are solvable problems. And furthermore, you're speculating on the future growth of this thing anyway. So I do think that there's a case being made of owning suite.”
2025-01-08 · Forward Guidance · FLASH UPDATE: The Dollar Rally Isn’t Over — What It Means For Risk Assets | Joe McCann · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Further out the kind of longer tail of tokens, I see things like GDO being kind of a no-brainer. These guys are just absolutely destroying it and they continue to ship amazing new stuff and new features for the GitO protocol. They've got a proposal in place to actually start to distribute protocol revenue to Jeto token holders. I mean, to me, it just, I'm obviously biased because I did, you know, in the VC fund, we invested in them, but the metrics just support this thing as being dramatically undervalued. I think there is something to be said also about”
2025-01-08 · Forward Guidance · FLASH UPDATE: The Dollar Rally Isn’t Over — What It Means For Risk Assets | Joe McCann · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I don't think it's as big of an event. I think you'll probably get selling ahead of it because people will assume it's an event and then it's a non-event and then it probably rips. So you can look at something like calendar spreads, April timeframe, probably does probably decent risk reward there. And then other tokens. Let's talk about other tokens. I actually think you buy the blood in meme coins like crazy. And I mean blue chips, right? So, you know, there's a zillion new meme coins that created every day. It's very difficult to kind of get decent liquidity in those as well as like pick which one it's going to do the best. I think your blue chip meme coins like Doge, Pepe, Bonk, that's across three chains, right? Doge its own thing, right? Pepe on Ethereum and Bonk on Solana. If these things are trading 50% below from where they are right now, I got to believe that that is no-brainer buy. And then as I move.”
2025-01-08 · Forward Guidance · FLASH UPDATE: The Dollar Rally Isn’t Over — What It Means For Risk Assets | Joe McCann · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I think the Solana ETF is going to happen. That's obviously a bullish catalyst, even if the narrative is what drives price higher. I think the unlock at the end of March, I've been on record saying this for probably since the FTX estate sale for the Solana lock tokens half.”
2025-01-08 · Forward Guidance · FLASH UPDATE: The Dollar Rally Isn’t Over — What It Means For Risk Assets | Joe McCann · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“We would love to be selling at the money or even in the money puts to buy monster size call spreads for call it end of Q1, end of Q2. This is an idea that we have. As it relates to other tokens, I mean, I'm not buying Ethereum. I think the fundamentals, and I wrote about this in the update, just don't match to justifying the opportunity cost of putting capital to work in an asset that already has an ETF that is having the L2s are basically cannibalizing the business model of the L1. I mean, I can go on and on and on, right? And in fact, the number of the growth invalidators has peaked. So, you know, there's the potential that people unstake their ETH. I mean, you put all this stuff together. It's hard for me to get bullish on something like Ethereum, if not like flat out short as a spread trade. And then, yes, Solana, I think there's...”
2025-01-08 · Forward Guidance · FLASH UPDATE: The Dollar Rally Isn’t Over — What It Means For Risk Assets | Joe McCann · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Assume Bitcoin trades something like 75K. Yeah, we will get very long Bitcoin. There's no doubt about it. It's because I run a fund from a liquidity standpoint, I can't be buying the latest AI agent meme coin that has 70k worth of liquidity. It's not going to work. So we want to actually see, and we would assume that vols get really elevated on a move like that in Bitcoin.”
2025-01-08 · Forward Guidance · FLASH UPDATE: The Dollar Rally Isn’t Over — What It Means For Risk Assets | Joe McCann · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Oh, no, no. I'm like, yeah. Of course, this is not financial advice, all that good stuff, right? I mean, so yes, it is no surprise that I'm still very much bullish on Solana. I had a reporter ask me towards the end of the year, like, what's my trade for what's my best trade idea for 2025? And I was like, long Salon, a short Ethereum. And that trade has worked extremely well. You could easily barbell this Bitcoin and Solana. I think that that trend continues. But timing matters. And I think that, you know, I talked about this in our latest market update. It is very difficult to forecast when low equity will peak. And then also how that actually affects risk assets. In some cases, global liquidity will peak and risk assets will continue to rise for a series of months after that. I think like, you know, if we do really get a proper flush, you know.”
2025-01-08 · Forward Guidance · FLASH UPDATE: The Dollar Rally Isn’t Over — What It Means For Risk Assets | Joe McCann · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Okay, so I want to talk a little bit about what are your cashed up or short right now, but when the opportunity comes, what are you excited about? You know, you've obviously been in the Solana world, but yeah, just curious, like, yeah, what's your shopping list and how are you thinking about Specific crypto space without shielding too hard, Joe. Come”
2025-01-08 · Forward Guidance · FLASH UPDATE: The Dollar Rally Isn’t Over — What It Means For Risk Assets | Joe McCann · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So that could be somewhat politically bearish and potentially bearish for price if Trump 180 on this thing. I find it highly unlikely given the success that Trump had with the, call it crypto community, as well as the folks that he's brought into his cabinet and advisory councils from folks like David and Sachs and Elon, et cetera. And frankly, even the folks that he's brought into the SEC and the Financial Services Committee, these are guys that are pretty open to the future of digital assets. And so I just, I struggle to see a scenario where he just flat out 180s on it. I think that I think we can kind of discount that almost to zero. But I think also the details, to your point, actually matter, but it matters more so how it affects, I think, the rest of the world and how they're going to be positioning themselves for a quote-unquote strategic Bitcoin reserve.”
2025-01-08 · Forward Guidance · FLASH UPDATE: The Dollar Rally Isn’t Over — What It Means For Risk Assets | Joe McCann · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I mean, it depends on where the price is. So if Bitcoin 75K, I don't think so. If Bitcoin's 100K, probably. I think the other thing to factor in, though, is There are a number of U.S. states that are now trying to get Bitcoin on their balance sheet. There are other countries, Hong Kong, I think a couple weeks ago, basically came out saying like they're putting together a proposal to add Bitcoin. The US is obviously the focus, specifically under the Trump administration. I just don't think that whether it's, oh, they only hold the stuff that they've kind of seized versus actually going out in the market and buying it is going to be the end all be all for what happens to the price of Bitcoin. Now, to be clear, if Trump 180s and said he's not doing an SBR, that likely has ramification on other countries, potentially the states in the United States. But let's be clear, the states that are actually floating the idea of putting Bitcoin on their state's balance sheet are Trump states.”
2025-01-08 · Forward Guidance · FLASH UPDATE: The Dollar Rally Isn’t Over — What It Means For Risk Assets | Joe McCann · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Do we need just an incredible upside surprise in the outcome of this Bitcoin reserve to keep asset prices afloat? And how does, do you think that creates like this pocket of risk where even if for the SBR, they say, okay, we're not actually going to buy Bitcoin. We're just going to, you know, the stuff we already have, we're just going to red market and just keep it and not sell it. Like, would that be a bearish event for Bitcoin?”
2025-01-08 · Forward Guidance · FLASH UPDATE: The Dollar Rally Isn’t Over — What It Means For Risk Assets | Joe McCann · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I'd also be curious to hear your thoughts on that positioning and price and dynamic, especially the SBR for marginal disappointment as well. This is something I've been trying to think about as well. So, you know, we have this macro framework that we've been talking about. But then also, as you mentioned, there's been a lot of lead up and excitement, and especially on the strategic Bitcoin reserve thing. And that's something that kind of freaks me out a little bit because there's a lot of excitement built into it. And maybe we've seen a little bit of that come back to your point. But I'm curious how you're thinking about”
2025-01-08 · Forward Guidance · FLASH UPDATE: The Dollar Rally Isn’t Over — What It Means For Risk Assets | Joe McCann · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“But just look at what happened in November and early December. That was a complete break of those correlations and Bitcoin rip. So as Trump comes into office, maybe there's potential chatter that comes out of Senator Loomis's office about the SBR. Maybe Trump himself starts talking more about digital assets. Those are all potential catalysts that could cause a reversal in price, which I think is really hard to box in idiosyncratic risk like that. But that is something that could kind of decouple or continue to decouple from a strong dollar, weak global liquidity environment that benefits Bitcoin and crypto.”
2025-01-08 · Forward Guidance · FLASH UPDATE: The Dollar Rally Isn’t Over — What It Means For Risk Assets | Joe McCann · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I just think that a lot of what got priced in the market happened six weeks following the Trump win. And when we saw that shift at the Fed level, it gave a reason for people to sell. And so now as we move towards the inauguration, everybody knows he's going to be president, right? So is that actually priced correctly? Like, does it actually mean that Bitcoin should be trading 150K or should it be trading 75? It doesn't really matter what the market is telling you is right now there isn't a lot of incremental demand for Bitcoin vis- ⁇-vis the ETF just by monitoring the flows and also like frankly like the spot volumes that exist on Bitcoin. So I think that crypto can do really well in any regime. It's better in a weaker dollar. It's better in an environment that has is flush with liquidity for sure.”
2025-01-08 · Forward Guidance · FLASH UPDATE: The Dollar Rally Isn’t Over — What It Means For Risk Assets | Joe McCann · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“There's your idiosyncratic event. And then people were basically saying, Oh, it's time to actually allocate to Bitcoin because if Trump becomes president, there's a higher propensity that there could be a strategic Bitcoin reserve, a higher propensity that we have clear regulation as it relates to crypto. The banks could actually eliminate SAB 121 so the banks can start offering prime brokerage services and maybe more trading options, et cetera, structured product, yada, yada, yada, et cetera. That is what drove a lot of that flow. Well, what does the idiosyncratic event coming up soon? He's going to be inaugurated as president. Now, does that mean in the absolute immediate term that you should be buying Bitcoin?”
2025-01-08 · Forward Guidance · FLASH UPDATE: The Dollar Rally Isn’t Over — What It Means For Risk Assets | Joe McCann · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I saw somebody respond to my thread about like, well, the dollar has been rising and crypto has been fine. And it's like, yeah, global liquidity has also been shrinking over the past few months. I mean, last week we saw almost a trillion dollars in nominal liquidity pulled out of the market. Bitcoin ran up to almost 103K, right? There is, I think, a structural difference between just correlating, say, crypto and its rise and fall in value to something like global liquidity or the dollar, and then recognizing flows that are driven by potentially idiosyncratic events. For example, global liquidity was shrunk on an annualized basis for Q4 of last year. Bitcoin went to 108k. What? That doesn't make sense. I thought Bitcoin tracked global liquidity, right? Why did Bitcoin move in the direction that it moved? You had a Trump win.”
2025-01-08 · Forward Guidance · FLASH UPDATE: The Dollar Rally Isn’t Over — What It Means For Risk Assets | Joe McCann · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Visit globalstake.io to experience its White Glove service, superior economics, and best in class security. Okay, so just thinking about time horizons here, if you still think the US dollar will trend somewhat higher on the medium time frame, but you're still constructive on crypto for, I don't know, the medium to high time frame horizons, do you think that crypto can still do well in a regime of somewhat higher dollar? Because we've seen this over the last like month, right? Like we've seen this idiosyncratic move where crypto's done super well, even though the Dixie's been going higher. So do you see a repeat of that? And it's just from here until then, there's this weird moment where this type of surgeon, the US dollar, is less constructive for risk.”
2025-01-08 · Forward Guidance · FLASH UPDATE: The Dollar Rally Isn’t Over — What It Means For Risk Assets | Joe McCann · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“To you, but as a trader, if you have an opportunity to be sitting in a mountain of cash and then buy Bitcoin at, say, 75K, 73K, 78K, and then let Trump come into office, man, that's a juicy setup. Well, you could also make money on the way down. And if you're wrong, by the way, if I'm wrong, I close my shorts, make a little bit of money, but the cash that I'm sitting in, I just give up a few points of P&L, right? Like I'm not like, oh, I'm in cash for the rest of the year. That's stupid. But for the immediate term, I'm looking at giving up a little bit of P&L versus being really right and being able to buy, you know, some of these assets at pennies on a dollar relative to where they've been trading.”
2025-01-08 · Forward Guidance · FLASH UPDATE: The Dollar Rally Isn’t Over — What It Means For Risk Assets | Joe McCann · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Dixie is just wild. That's a lot of power, right? And it has ramifications across basically every market. So as I sit here today, nothing about the chart, nothing about the fundamentals right now suggest that the dollar has peaked. And in fact, feels like it's going probably closer to 111, 112-ish area, that will likely provide a huge opportunity to buy risk. Well, what does that mean for, say, crypto? Like Bitcoin can trade 75K and people would be on suicide watch. But that's the thing about crypto. I've been trading crypto for about almost nine years now. The market of crypto always goes way lower than people think, and it goes exponentially higher than one could imagine. And that is, I think, the risk here is that if you're a hodler, again, this isn't mattered.”
2025-01-08 · Forward Guidance · FLASH UPDATE: The Dollar Rally Isn’t Over — What It Means For Risk Assets | Joe McCann · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Is utterly irrelevant to you. But I look at it and go, until there's a clear topping signal in the dollar, or, and this is the hard part about boxing this risk in on being like short risk right now, is Trump could literally tweet, I'm going to cut 100 basis points or something. Like he could just tweet something really crazy. Well, crazy in big air quotes because it's Trump, that could change the direction of what happens with the US dollar. I think like the Greenland stuff, the Panama Canal, these are all like cute, funny kind of things. I mean, maybe he's serious, but that's the point. Like the guy, you have no idea if this guy's really serious or not. And that could be a potential catalyst. The notion that the president-elect of the United States could actually change the direction of the”
2025-01-08 · Forward Guidance · FLASH UPDATE: The Dollar Rally Isn’t Over — What It Means For Risk Assets | Joe McCann · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“The strength of the US dollar is a problem for risk assets. And I've made this super clear. This shouldn't be news to anybody that kind of tracks the dollar index, especially as it relates to Bitcoin or risk assets in general. Do I think the dollar index has topped here? I do not. I just don't think that's the case. And then furthermore, some of the more structural issues as it relates to whether it's the Chinese yuan, whether it's the euro, whether it's the sterling, it's hard to look at those charts, even dollar mex, the Mexican peso, like it's hard to look at these charts and be like, yeah, this thing is bottoming. Like, it just doesn't look that way. And so if you just kind of try to connect the dots here and say, all right, if the dollar continues to rise in value, should I be long Bitcoin? Now, again, I'm a trader for folks that are hogglers and investors.”
2025-01-08 · Forward Guidance · FLASH UPDATE: The Dollar Rally Isn’t Over — What It Means For Risk Assets | Joe McCann · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, I mean, it's a great question because I mentioned this in my Twitter thread. There's a number of folks have been tweeting this dollar index DXY's kind of fractal from when Trump took office in 2016 relative to now and how it just faded kind of after the first week of the year. And we still could potentially see that. We are not seeing that at all. And in fact, you know, the dollar index, even as we sit here today, is continuing to rise in value. You're having some issues, potential issues. I think they're probably somewhat overblown in the UK guilt market right now, their 30-year bond is at the highest yield since I think in 1988 or 98. Don't quote me on that. But the euro looks absolutely horrible. It broke a huge technical level last week. I mean, this thing's probably going to a dollar, if not lower.”
2025-01-08 · Forward Guidance · FLASH UPDATE: The Dollar Rally Isn’t Over — What It Means For Risk Assets | Joe McCann · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“You view the inauguration as this fade for the dollar moment where we're seeing a lot of baked up uncertainty in terms of tariffs, just like Trump invading Greenland. These type of things that are just like flying around the markets right now. And basically there's limitless uncertainty right now because he's not actually the president right now. So he can just say anything he wants. So I'm curious, like, do you view that as the fade moment for the dollar yields?”
2025-01-08 · Forward Guidance · FLASH UPDATE: The Dollar Rally Isn’t Over — What It Means For Risk Assets | Joe McCann · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, I totally agree with that. Another thing, you know, this inauguration day just feels like this inflection point for markets where there's a lot of uncertainty in premium kind of baked into a lot of different asset classes. And then it's going to be really interesting to see the pivot point. And the two big ones you already talked about, the long bond and also just the US dollar right now. They've both been surging. And I'm curious like.”
2025-01-08 · Forward Guidance · FLASH UPDATE: The Dollar Rally Isn’t Over — What It Means For Risk Assets | Joe McCann · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“It just doesn't make any sense to me. And that's why I do think the number of cuts being priced in 2025 is radically mispriced right now.”
2025-01-08 · Forward Guidance · FLASH UPDATE: The Dollar Rally Isn’t Over — What It Means For Risk Assets | Joe McCann · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Of summarizing here. Rates are still restrictive, but we can move at a measured pace. These types of words, like, I don't think one of the easiest potential asymmetric trades right now is the number of cuts being priced in the futures market right now are radically mispriced. I think there's a really strong case to be made that we still get 100 plus 100 bips plus cuts throughout this year. Now, there is a conspiracy theory, and who doesn't love one of those, that Powell, you know, wanted to kind of stick it to the man, so to speak, before Trump took office with some of the rhetoric that he said, I don't have a strong view on this, if that's the case or not. But at the end of the day, if the market is actually seeing what the Fed says and then they're trying to extrapolate a narrative beyond what's happening in the actual economy.”
2025-01-08 · Forward Guidance · FLASH UPDATE: The Dollar Rally Isn’t Over — What It Means For Risk Assets | Joe McCann · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Now, I think we're going to continue to see this level of American exceptionalism, if you will, as it relates as we lead into 2025. But I don't have an issue with what's happening in the bond market right now per se, because you're seeing a lot of folks correlate. The Fed cut rates and look at the tenure. It's like you're looking at it in a vacuum. And frankly, you're looking at it the wrong way. The market's focused on growth right now. And if the Fed is somewhat hawkish in their press conference, that does not imply that the economy is at risk, in my opinion. I think the other thing is if you look at what the Fed governors have been saying since that meeting, you're having folks basically come out and say, neutral rate, probably one, one and a half percent. I mean, they're spit, you know, they're...”
2025-01-08 · Forward Guidance · FLASH UPDATE: The Dollar Rally Isn’t Over — What It Means For Risk Assets | Joe McCann · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, I mean, I would just look at the yield curve, right? Like, historically, in a steeping yield curve environment, that the market is instead focused on growth and less concerned about inflation. I think the difference is the Fed is not responsible for the fixed income market. The Treasury Secretary is, right? Or the Treasury in general. And we've had this bizarre distortion over the past couple of years with Yellen basically stuffing the market with bills and inverting the curve pretty dramatically. That's not normal because historically when you have an inverted curve, you know, I mean, you saw the FinTwit Doomers losing their minds for the past two and a half years. Oh, there's an inverted yield curve. We're going into a recession. No recession. In fact, GDP's booming, right? Now we can debate why that's the case. Is it from government deficit spending or something to that effect? Doesn't matter. The economy is booming in the United States.”
2025-01-08 · Forward Guidance · FLASH UPDATE: The Dollar Rally Isn’t Over — What It Means For Risk Assets | Joe McCann · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I agree with a lot of that. Something I've been trying to figure out myself is trying to discern the length of this tactical bearishness that you're describing. And for me, a lot of that has to do with trying to game out, okay, we've seen the Fed go from outright dovishness to this hawkish tilt last month. And now I'm trying to contrast that with the tension of what we're seeing in the economy. So if the Fed is pivoting hawkish at a time where we're starting to see a growth slowdown, that could be an issue. But if we're seeing resilient growth, them hawkish isn't as much of a big deal. So I'm curious, like, how are you thinking about the tension between their hawkish tilt and the economy? And then how does that get reflected in the short to medium term outlook?”
2025-01-08 · Forward Guidance · FLASH UPDATE: The Dollar Rally Isn’t Over — What It Means For Risk Assets | Joe McCann · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Either deny what you're seeing, or you can try to embrace it and then manage your risk appropriately. We've been fortunate to actually, I don't want to say catch the TikTok, but pretty close as to how we're positioned currently. And I don't think it actually lasts too long. I think that there is actually a case to be made that there's probably some market issues, meaning less bullish momentum in the immediate term. But as we start to approach Trump's inauguration, things could turn around. And so my kind of tactical short-term bearish view is just that. It's tactical. Structurally, I still think that Q1 has a really strong chance of being a high-performing quarter. It's historically the best quarter for Bitcoin. And you could easily see something like a pew. Down to 75K, and this thing's at 150K before the end of the quarter”
2025-01-08 · Forward Guidance · FLASH UPDATE: The Dollar Rally Isn’t Over — What It Means For Risk Assets | Joe McCann · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Where you had the Coinbase premium finally flipped positive for the first time since literally December 17th, you had a monster amount of inflows. But stock market also did really well that day. And to me, this feels like algorithms correlating their trading, coupled with some probably incremental flows to start the new year for the Bitcoin ETF. And what happened Tuesday immediately rejected. That's not what you want to see in a bullish setup. My job as a trader and a hedge fund manager is to make my LPs money, right? Like I'm not trying to make friends, so to speak. I mean, I like friends. I like my friends. I like new people and new friends too. But like markets are player versus player. And if it upsets people that I'm short-term bearish, I don't give a shit, right? Like the reality is that the market is telling you something.”
2025-01-08 · Forward Guidance · FLASH UPDATE: The Dollar Rally Isn’t Over — What It Means For Risk Assets | Joe McCann · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I think people may not be privy to what is likely to occur in terms of a reversal. And so what I was looking for was to be invalidated in my view by one thing and one thing only, which are flows. And what I was hoping to see, to validate my bearer's view, was a lot of flows coming into the market, particularly, I mean, the Bitcoin ETF flows, but just flows in general. They haven't come. And in fact, the S&P, if you look at the indices, they're making a set of lower highs. That's not what you want to see in a bullish setup. So I kind of put all this.”
2025-01-08 · Forward Guidance · FLASH UPDATE: The Dollar Rally Isn’t Over — What It Means For Risk Assets | Joe McCann · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Bitcoin also painted what's called a shooting star monthly candle. These are ominous reversal candles. So again, at that point, I'm looking at it going like, hey, like I could be wrong about there being a potential short-term local top or reversal of sorts. But you look at what happened on December 17th and 18th. And then the next two weeks leading up to that. Then you have the technical analysis being applied to the monthly chart. We didn't close above 100K to end the year. We didn't even close above 96.5, which would have saved the monthly candle on Bitcoin. Kind of spidey senses were getting a little like.”
2025-01-08 · Forward Guidance · FLASH UPDATE: The Dollar Rally Isn’t Over — What It Means For Risk Assets | Joe McCann · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And crypto, of course, wasn't immune to this. You saw massive outflows of not only Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, which are obviously the easiest institutional grade products for folks to access. But in addition to that, massive reduction in the supply of stablecoins. So people were basically redeeming their stablecoins for cash, thus reducing the supply of stablecoins. All of those are net Negative outflows, if you will, as it relates to propping up the liquidity in these markets. And that's one of the reasons why I think you saw Bitcoin close the year below 100K. We did not receive our Santa Claus rally. On December 31st, basically at the market close, so call it midnight UTC”
2025-01-08 · Forward Guidance · FLASH UPDATE: The Dollar Rally Isn’t Over — What It Means For Risk Assets | Joe McCann · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“The move on December 18th was a 6.9 standard deviation move, which has the odds of one in one hundred ninety one point six trillion chances of happening, and it happened. And so that like the Fed cuts 25 basis points. The VIX absolutely explodes, and the dollar rises. Conceptually, you would think the Fed cutting 25 basis points would weaken the currency. The opposite happened. You wouldn't think that you would have a 74% move in the VIX, right? It happened. And so that for me was like the first kind of like, wait a second. I think there's something else going on here. And then, of course, the following two weeks heading into the end of the year, you had a collapse in liquidity. You had an utter collapse in market breadth as it relates to the stock market.”
2025-01-08 · Forward Guidance · FLASH UPDATE: The Dollar Rally Isn’t Over — What It Means For Risk Assets | Joe McCann · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And then the result of that hawkish press conference was basically the second largest move in the volatility index, aka the VIX, in history. I ran an analysis on this, and you can check out read.asymetric.financial to go verify the data. I've also got a Twitter thread about this. For days that the Fed cuts 25 basis points or more. Going back to the inception of the VIX in 1993,”
2025-01-08 · Forward Guidance · FLASH UPDATE: The Dollar Rally Isn’t Over — What It Means For Risk Assets | Joe McCann · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Certainly, in terms of the press conference, let alone taking cuts out of 2025. And that really shocked the markets. You had investor sentiment and positioning was somewhat elevated headed into the Fed. I think myself and a number of folks were just really anticipating that Santa Claus rally that never materialized. As well as just the kind of exuberant feelings around the Trump administration and their desire to whether it's moving into things like cutting government waste through things like Doge to the appointments to the SEC, the Financial Services Committee for a common sense form of regulation as relates to not only just crypto assets, but I would say innovation in general. All of those things together, like how are you not long heading into a Fed that the markets are basically pricing a 25. IPs”
2025-01-08 · Forward Guidance · FLASH UPDATE: The Dollar Rally Isn’t Over — What It Means For Risk Assets | Joe McCann · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, sure. Thanks for having me back. I'm a big fan of the show. So, you know, I think the biggest thing for me was what happened, you know, I would say December 17th and then the Fed on December 18th. So December 17th, you basically had from a technical analysis standpoint, it's a thing called a swing failure pattern in Bitcoin, but also you saw the S&P 500 indices actually gap up and then fade down, which is also somewhat of a topping signal. You can kind of assume that makes sense because people are de-risking ahead of the Fed. Because remember, December 18th was the day of the Fed. But myself, and I would argue pretty much everybody, maybe some geniuses out there, you know, doing a victory lap by himself, but I don't think really anybody was assuming a hawkish Fed in certain.”
2025-01-08 · Forward Guidance · FLASH UPDATE: The Dollar Rally Isn’t Over — What It Means For Risk Assets | Joe McCann · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“The future of staking with Global Stake, your trusted partner in institutional staking. Visit globalstake.io to experience its white glove service, superior economics, and best-in-class security. Welcome back to another episode and joining me today is repeat guest Joe McCann, founder, CEO of the Asymmetric Fund. Joe, great to have you on. We chat about six months ago. I was just looking back and you pretty aptly called the pretty bullish dynamic for liquidity rate cuts and risk assets and crypto assets, obviously. And that was proven pretty correct. It's been a great six months. And had to get you on the show because you've had a little bit of a different tune this week. And so have markets as well. So we'd love to just open the stage. You know, for those that don't know you too deeply on what you focus on, you know, you kind of intersect the two of macro and crypto, which is exactly what we talk about on the show. So maybe we can talk a bit about how you're thinking about the macro situation as it stands and how that's starting to impact risk assets right now.”
2025-01-08 · Forward Guidance · FLASH UPDATE: The Dollar Rally Isn’t Over — What It Means For Risk Assets | Joe McCann · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT