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John Markoff

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133
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2017-02-06
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2017-02-06
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  1. I think that before the reporting function dies, the editing function will be taken over by AIs. I mean, we already have these systems that are creating, doing what editors do. Reporters, I think, will survive longer. I mean, remember that company called Narrative Science? Oh, narrative science was the first AI reporters. And the problem was the news business is so bad that even the AIs came.

    2017-02-06 · Decoder with Nilay Patel · Recode Decode: John Markoff, ex-reporter, The New York Times · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  2. Well, it ever happened to us. Yeah, but good old fashioned reporting people seem to be willing to, or enough people seem to be willing to pay for it. So they're halfway across.

    2017-02-06 · Decoder with Nilay Patel · Recode Decode: John Markoff, ex-reporter, The New York Times · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  3. The digital chasm we're talking about, such as it is, yeah. And, you know, Don't count them out yet. The narrative changes like every six months. And this latest wave, you know, paper of resistance, right? Which is richly ironic because they tried all of these things, and then guess what happens, good old guy who.

    2017-02-06 · Decoder with Nilay Patel · Recode Decode: John Markoff, ex-reporter, The New York Times · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  4. That's right, pocket crystal, general magic Newton, PenMac and Swatch at Apple Palm. There are a whole set of people who set out at the same time. I call that Silicon Valley's greatest generat

    2017-02-06 · Decoder with Nilay Patel · Recode Decode: John Markoff, ex-reporter, The New York Times · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  5. Well, so there was a branch. I'm really interested in that point. So the iPhone 2007, the ideas that became the iPhone really started 20 years earlier. They did. There was this point where we went from the dynabook, which was computing your lap, to a whole group of people at relatively the same time decided, hey, you can put computing in your pocket. And then it took 20 years for Steve to do that. And they were all.

    2017-02-06 · Decoder with Nilay Patel · Recode Decode: John Markoff, ex-reporter, The New York Times · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  6. So, this is central casting for me, but it's a guy by the name of Douglas Engelbart. Who we know is the inventor of the mouse, but actually he was the one who had the original vision that became both personal computing and the internet in the late 1950s.

    2017-02-06 · Decoder with Nilay Patel · Recode Decode: John Markoff, ex-reporter, The New York Times · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  7. Stuff to take notes on what they're claiming and then All right, I'm gonna put you on the spot. Final question if you had to pick one person who's had the most impact over the historical, please don't go back to the 1700s, not allowed. Who would you say was the one person who had the most significant impact?

    2017-02-06 · Decoder with Nilay Patel · Recode Decode: John Markoff, ex-reporter, The New York Times · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  8. their notion that they could kill the Asian display manufacturing industry by basically if you wanted a high resolution screen you could just hang it in the air i i love that and i don't

    2017-02-06 · Decoder with Nilay Patel · Recode Decode: John Markoff, ex-reporter, The New York Times · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  9. I love Uber. No, no, no, no. Anything by that. So I was a total believer when I saw Magic Leap for a while because the level of resolution and this notion.

    2017-02-06 · Decoder with Nilay Patel · Recode Decode: John Markoff, ex-reporter, The New York Times · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  10. Yeah, it's the sugar industry. Fair point, fair point. They love it. And the Berkeley scientist who did the early work was Gabin Mingwu.

    2017-02-06 · Decoder with Nilay Patel · Recode Decode: John Markoff, ex-reporter, The New York Times · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  11. Five. I just ran into this company called Berkeley Lights that is really interesting. They're over there and basically people talk about light tweezers. These guys have created this platform that's a little bit, both David Al and Moritz invested in this company. It's like a giant Pachinko machine except it sorts cell

    2017-02-06 · Decoder with Nilay Patel · Recode Decode: John Markoff, ex-reporter, The New York Times · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  12. You know, north of three quarters of a billion dollars away from the semiconductor industry because they'd borrowed his instruction set. And he's been doing interesting investing in environmental areas. He went off in an entirely different area. Biochar, new kinds of fertilizers.

    2017-02-06 · Decoder with Nilay Patel · Recode Decode: John Markoff, ex-reporter, The New York Times · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  13. Which some people refer to as microlunacy at one point, but it was the first, one of the companies that tried to do sort of big things was set top boxes. Remember when the set top box wars were happening? But John, what people don't really know is his company cratered, but before it cratered, he took

    2017-02-06 · Decoder with Nilay Patel · Recode Decode: John Markoff, ex-reporter, The New York Times · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  14. So, yeah, this is hard. Crappy interviewers would say one. Okay. So there's a generation of young AI people who are doing interesting things. Paul Soucher went to Salesforce, I think, very highly. And there's a reason why. You know, we've made rapid progress in some areas, but he has done interesting things in language understanding, and I actually think that that's going to have more impact than a lot of things when we can actually have conversations with these machines.

    2017-02-06 · Decoder with Nilay Patel · Recode Decode: John Markoff, ex-reporter, The New York Times · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  15. Yeah. Oh, did it? Oh, I'm sorry. Now I feel bad. All right. I feel terrible. But I wish I was there to yell at her or anybody else because it's a really, it is a fascinating thing. It's like the relationship. And sometimes I end speeches by I go, I leave you to your own devices and I mean that kind of thing. All right. Last thing, who were the most significant figures? I want your name five people besides John Markov.

    2017-02-06 · Decoder with Nilay Patel · Recode Decode: John Markoff, ex-reporter, The New York Times · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  16. You're saving lives. I know. Oh my god, you got. Kind of thing to an editor of The New York Times. Yeah. Oh, did it? Oh, I'm sorry

    2017-02-06 · Decoder with Nilay Patel · Recode Decode: John Markoff, ex-reporter, The New York Times · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  17. They don't think about that. Very salient point. You're right. You know what I do now? Because I actually don't think I'd use my, I love my little phone. It's the best relationship I've ever had, but I don't do that when I walk down the street. And all I do is go, hey, hey to people, look up. I did like a crazy old. They're like, I was like, you're crossing the street. You're saving lives. Well, you know, someone died on a corner of my God. You got the weather, but you're dead, like kind of thing.

    2017-02-06 · Decoder with Nilay Patel · Recode Decode: John Markoff, ex-reporter, The New York Times · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  18. But think about it. I mean, we have a generation of people who are taking their life instructions from the palm of their hand, the kind of independence that our generation has. They don't think about that.

    2017-02-06 · Decoder with Nilay Patel · Recode Decode: John Markoff, ex-reporter, The New York Times · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  19. Yeah, yeah. So, you know, Oregon replacement is pretty routine at this point. I mean, body parts are bionic already. So that was one of the arguments. If you augment the human, so this notion of a cyborg.

    2017-02-06 · Decoder with Nilay Patel · Recode Decode: John Markoff, ex-reporter, The New York Times · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  20. So maybe your billionaire friends will live a couple years longer. But you really got to go read Gibson's book, Neuromancer, because part of the... Winter Mute, they had these 300 year old billionaires in orbit around the Earth. Right, well, Elysium, there's all those kind of things. There's movies like that.

    2017-02-06 · Decoder with Nilay Patel · Recode Decode: John Markoff, ex-reporter, The New York Times · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  21. I think that might be realistically possible. I mean, the problem is it's going in the wrong direction in our country as an average, that we peaked.

    2017-02-06 · Decoder with Nilay Patel · Recode Decode: John Markoff, ex-reporter, The New York Times · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  22. No disease. Think about that, yeah. I mean, even if we're not doing it, they're already doing experiments with that in China. There are going to be many countries that are exploring that. But the tools are, it's not just CRISPR. CRISPR was the first of a set of gene editing techniques that are going to allow you to basically do designer things. And so there'll be incredibly neat things, you know, bump up the virus resistance of a potato that's going on right now. And is that GMO? It gets into this very murky area. You know, if I had to reinvent myself and I was going to look for the next microprocessor, I would look in there. Look in there. What about?

    2017-02-06 · Decoder with Nilay Patel · Recode Decode: John Markoff, ex-reporter, The New York Times · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  23. What's the most important sort of technological force on the horizon today? It's techniques like CRISPR. So there are these new gene editing techniques. And what CRISPR that allows you to alter any kind of genome, any kind of biological material with much more precision and much more effectively and much more quickly?

    2017-02-06 · Decoder with Nilay Patel · Recode Decode: John Markoff, ex-reporter, The New York Times · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  24. Even conceive of that. Right. That was what I was arguing. I said, they don't, why would they want to kill us? We're not a problem unless we start to be a problem and start pulling their plugs or making a mess. They don't want to, it's interesting how Hollywood always makes them malevolent, which I think is not so much, it's more like, who are you people? And they don't think like humans. They think we always humanize these things. All right, two more predictions, John. All right. All right. Materials. Okay.

    2017-02-06 · Decoder with Nilay Patel · Recode Decode: John Markoff, ex-reporter, The New York Times · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  25. This is a dinner party the other day. That's what I said. It's word with us. They're going to go off and do something interesting that we can't even conceive of. Right. That was what I.

    2017-02-06 · Decoder with Nilay Patel · Recode Decode: John Markoff, ex-reporter, The New York Times · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  26. How AI is See, this is why I think her nailed it. If we have a singularity and we do have this intelligence explosion, the her outcome is much more likely than that they're going to want to eat us.

    2017-02-06 · Decoder with Nilay Patel · Recode Decode: John Markoff, ex-reporter, The New York Times · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  27. Exactly. That's the question. To augment, do you think we'll get? I mean, Elon did talk about that this year at Code, the neural networks and how AI is going to treat us like house cats. He loves that whole scenario. And then we moved into simulation.

    2017-02-06 · Decoder with Nilay Patel · Recode Decode: John Markoff, ex-reporter, The New York Times · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  28. Well, retrain them to do what? Exactly. That's the question. So in my last book, I saw this dichotomy between machines that replace humans and machines that extend the power of humans. And that's been basically the dichotomy in our industry ever since. This was going back to the very dawn of interactive computing in the early 1960s. McCarthy on one side in a lab at Stanford and Engelbart on the other. One wanted to replace the human, one wanted to extend the people. The problem is when you augment humans, you need fewer humans. So it's not only a dichotomy, but it's a paradox. Right. And I don't particularly see an easy way.

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  29. It may happen. Elon's an important guy. No, I don't ask people when the self driving car is coming. What I do is when I talk to roboticists, I say, tell me when there will be a robot that can safely give an aging human a shower. Because that's what we need in society because there are not going to be enough human caregivers in China or the US or anywhere else. And it really reframed the way I think about it. Right. I'm not saying that this technological changes aren't significant. I'm saying that the aging of society is the most significant.

    2017-02-06 · Decoder with Nilay Patel · Recode Decode: John Markoff, ex-reporter, The New York Times · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  30. On the one side, there are not enough workers because the demographic trends are more important than the technological trends and they're happening more quickly. On the other side, there's this thing called the dependency ratio. The ratio between caregivers and people who need care. For the first time last year, there were more people in the world who were over 65 than under five. First time ever in history. By the middle of the century, the number of people over 80 will double. By the end of the century, it will be up sevenfold globally. So Rod Brooks likes to say the self-driving car is going to be the first elder care robot. I actually think he might be true.

    2017-02-06 · Decoder with Nilay Patel · Recode Decode: John Markoff, ex-reporter, The New York Times · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  31. Except in Africa, actually. Yeah. Africa is still, but everywhere else there's been this great demographic shift. Three points. For the first time last year.

    2017-02-06 · Decoder with Nilay Patel · Recode Decode: John Markoff, ex-reporter, The New York Times · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  32. There are not enough people, particularly working age people. In the last year in China, the working age workforce declined by over 5 million people because of the one China policy. But that's not just China, that's Korea, that's Japan, that's the United States. The world is aging and nobody gets it.

    2017-02-06 · Decoder with Nilay Patel · Recode Decode: John Markoff, ex-reporter, The New York Times · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  33. And he stopped me and he said, You don't get it. He said, In China, they'll be lucky if the robots come just in time. And I said, excuse me? And he walked me through the demographic situation in China.

    2017-02-06 · Decoder with Nilay Patel · Recode Decode: John Markoff, ex-reporter, The New York Times · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  34. I was totally into robots are going to come to manufacturing and I was telling Danny Kahneman, the behavioral economist this and making the argument they're going to come to China and they're going to lead to social disruption.

    2017-02-06 · Decoder with Nilay Patel · Recode Decode: John Markoff, ex-reporter, The New York Times · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  35. Well, the replicant question is well, the replicants are no, not in our lifetime. Okay. However, what's the impact near term? And like, for example, Elon Musk makes the statement that he's going to be able to summon his car from the opposite side of the country in 2018. That's not going to happen. I don't believe here's what I've been saying. I've been going around the country because I was on a book tour and saying if the Uber robot comes to my house in the Castro in 2025 and drives me to dinner in Palo Alto, I'm buying. And I don't think I'm going to lose that bet. Right. Okay. Because there's not only the technology challenge, there's the regulatory challenge. But here's what changed my mind, just one story.

    2017-02-06 · Decoder with Nilay Patel · Recode Decode: John Markoff, ex-reporter, The New York Times · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  36. And drones over here in self driving cars. Singularity. And first of all, let's dismiss the singularity. They aren't going to be thinking machines in your lifetime.

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  37. And Yeah, I just wrote a book about this, right? And I came down on basically, you know, I was part of that group and I actually helped create the alarm about the impact on jobs. And I've come to a very different point. Oh, really?

    2017-02-06 · Decoder with Nilay Patel · Recode Decode: John Markoff, ex-reporter, The New York Times · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  38. A yacht at con. I was like Larry Dave. I was like, Well, I would take her over X Machina any day, even though X Machina, you know, got all this robot

    2017-02-06 · Decoder with Nilay Patel · Recode Decode: John Markoff, ex-reporter, The New York Times · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  39. Interesting. It's so funny. I met him, Spike Jones, on some yacht at Con. He was like, I really am eager to know what you think of my movie. And I was like, and he goes, what? And I go, he could have been more creative of where that goes. And he literally was like, what? I was like, I was like Larry David. No, I'd just seen it. It just came out. And he was explaining to me, he goes, that was amazing. And I was like, you know, I thought you could have gone, you went with a love story. All right. It's much more interesting than that.

    2017-02-06 · Decoder with Nilay Patel · Recode Decode: John Markoff, ex-reporter, The New York Times · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  40. Well, will it be? So I used to think that when I went and saw magically, like you probably know, I was so blown away. I actually now think that maybe it's going to be something whispering in your ear

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  41. Like the movie network, or more like the Matrix. I mean, I don't think we're going to go backwards to television line. The one thing that's interesting to me is none of these sort of realities we're in. We're in a particular reality that lasts for very long. I mean, this thing is still morphing. For example, you know, you talk about the future. One of the things that strikes me, we both commute. You walk downstairs. Fully half the people on the street are walking. That can't be the end of interface, right? There has to be something after that.

    2017-02-06 · Decoder with Nilay Patel · Recode Decode: John Markoff, ex-reporter, The New York Times · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  42. Right. And they have promised their, you know, I had an interesting meeting with someone from a different company. They said their problem is they promised their readers they could put up this trash. You know what I mean? Others like Google can take it down and nobody knows what Google does. The back with you know they could manipulate all kinds of levers and they don't have a contract with their users. They're not doing that. And Facebook said you can put up anything you want. And if you can put up anything you want, you can put up a lot of crap. And how do you then decide what's can you imagine putting up something and saying, do you read my thing? And Facebook has taken it down

    2017-02-06 · Decoder with Nilay Patel · Recode Decode: John Markoff, ex-reporter, The New York Times · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  43. And I keep saying that to them. I'm like, the suburbs now have trash. You don't want the suburbs to have trash. No, it's a good point that Facebook is grappling with this.

    2017-02-06 · Decoder with Nilay Patel · Recode Decode: John Markoff, ex-reporter, The New York Times · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  44. Stuart Brand and Kevin Kelly and some others created this early online community, which in some ways was one of the first intentional virtual communities. I mean, there were other things like comprehensive and source and prodigy. They were around, but the well They from the outset banned anonymity. And I've had a debate with Mark Rotenberg, who runs the Electronic Privacy Information Center about anonymity. And he defends anonymity on this traditional basis of, you know, it's essential for democracy. And yet, we have to figure it out some way. And I actually think that maybe we need to go to pseudonymity or something that you're going to participate in this network existence. Maybe you have to be connected to meat space in some way.

    2017-02-06 · Decoder with Nilay Patel · Recode Decode: John Markoff, ex-reporter, The New York Times · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  45. Yeah, so the only, you know, I'm watching this like a huge train wreck like the rest of society. Let me just point back to the well. Do you remember the well?

    2017-02-06 · Decoder with Nilay Patel · Recode Decode: John Markoff, ex-reporter, The New York Times · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  46. Yeah, I mean, so what happened? I mean, what's striking to me is that, you know, what the science fiction world saw in the 80s and 90s has actually come to pass. You know, the cyberpunk sensibility that there was a book written by Werner Wing in early 1980s called True Names. And the basic premise of that was you had to basically hide your true name at all costs. It was an insight into the world we're living in today.

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  47. Tw Beautifully. Yeah, and so at some point I saw that the internet is simply a reflection of all the good and the evil in the world.

    2017-02-06 · Decoder with Nilay Patel · Recode Decode: John Markoff, ex-reporter, The New York Times · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  48. Yeah, I think a lot of it has to do with on the internet no one still knows you're a dog. I think that anonymity is very famous in early New Yorker cartoon. But I think identity and the fact that you disconnect identity from your internet identity has proved incredibly vexing for society. It played out in this election.

    2017-02-06 · Decoder with Nilay Patel · Recode Decode: John Markoff, ex-reporter, The New York Times · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  49. It made a dose of depression. Just for me personally, I began, I think I wrote the very first story on cyber war for Mother Jones in nineteen seventy nine. And, you know, after covering it up until 2011 or 2012, I literally decided that if I had to write another story about a testosterone poison teenager with an attitude, I was going to have an aneurysm. And I walked away from what has become an even, it was already a great beat, an even bigger beat. And so I feel like I'm three years out of touch with the state of cybersecurity. But I don't see any reason for optimism.

    2017-02-06 · Decoder with Nilay Patel · Recode Decode: John Markoff, ex-reporter, The New York Times · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  50. Yeah, yeah. I did call Jerry Yang immediately as I left and I said, You better watch out for those two. Get them off of Yahoo immediately. And of course, Jerry is usually like, oh, you're so negative. They didn't do it. But anyway, it was an interesting, it was an interesting time to watch it. When we get back, we're going to talk about what's going to happen in the future with tech and where it's going. I'm going to get some predictions from you, John Markov. Materials apparently are it. And also media. Where's the New York Times going? Where's recode and everything else going?

    2017-02-06 · Decoder with Nilay Patel · Recode Decode: John Markoff, ex-reporter, The New York Times · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT