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John Mousseau
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- 2020-04-11
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- 2020-04-11
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“I wish I had known the importance of international flows and currencies. As a municipal bond expert. Back 40 years ago, you didn't realize the importance of international flows and how they would affect things. So the fact is that the change in the Chinese currency would affect municipal bond investment would never occur to you. It definitely affects it today. So I think that's the one thing that I've learned.”
2020-04-11 · Masters in Business · John Mousseau on Risk in the Fixed Income Market (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I would say find a spot on any firm and do everything they ask from sweeping the floors to make sure you show up the first one there every day and find a mentor. But I would give that advice to anybody that's starting out. If you can find a mentor, and even if it takes you a few years, it is well worth it because you have somebody to bounce ideas off of.”
2020-04-11 · Masters in Business · John Mousseau on Risk in the Fixed Income Market (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I'm big into history. One of my favorite books was Rise and Fall of the Third Reich, which was a tomb by William Shire. I go back and read Free to Choose by Milton Friedman every once in a while to make sure I'm oriented the right way. And I'm trying to read the Ulysses Grant biography right now by Roncherno.”
2020-04-11 · Masters in Business · John Mousseau on Risk in the Fixed Income Market (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Really, when I look back, a man named Billy Gao at EF Hutton, who was a public finance banker, and he really kind of took a liking to me and got me into the municipal bond area. And then later on, Bob Dow at Lord Abbott.”
2020-04-11 · Masters in Business · John Mousseau on Risk in the Fixed Income Market (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I am back watching all the Ken Burns specials on baseball, World War, Prohibition, etc. So, you know, you're never too old to learn and you're never too old to relearn.”
2020-04-11 · Masters in Business · John Mousseau on Risk in the Fixed Income Market (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It's hard to say Barry because I think what's going to be going on here is a lot of it based on demographics. And what you're going to see is the millennials who, if you draw a bell curve of the millennials, Biggest part of that curve is just starting to turn 30, and they're just starting to get into the years where”
2020-04-11 · Masters in Business · John Mousseau on Risk in the Fixed Income Market (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I think so. And if you looked last year at the Kind of the middle part of the year, you had a cover of business week and it had a picture of some kind of animal. And it says the death of inflation. That was good enough for me to realize that inflation is probably coming back. It takes a while and it will take a while to build up. And I think you wonder about where will it end up? What asset class will it end up in? We've seen some of the Fed's actions in the past that ends up in maybe small cap stocks or it ends up in the housing market. Does this time, does it end up in commodities, which are, you know, it's been severely depressed? You would think that if you come out of this mess, those kind of traditional things like copper and timber and things of that nature would start to do well. And so I would start to think you'd see some inflation.”
2020-04-11 · Masters in Business · John Mousseau on Risk in the Fixed Income Market (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“No, I think what you'll see is you'll actually see rates turn positive. I think you'll see a more positive looking yield curve. And I think if all the government stimulus that you see, that should produce a positive yield curve because you'd think you would start to build out inflationary expectations as you go further out. And that's reflected in the shape of the yield curve as well.”
2020-04-11 · Masters in Business · John Mousseau on Risk in the Fixed Income Market (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Was coming to the agreement that this was not good for banks. And you saw a lot of noise and some movement. And before all this, you would start to see rates rise. So Germany had gone from negative 10-year bond rates to actually positive rates. In the last few weeks, they've gone from negative like minus 0.9 to up to minus 0.3. So I think we're going to move out of the negative interest rate range over time. And I think the idea is if you can get back to a world where you have a steeper yield curve, then the banks are in a shape to make money. And you need a decent banking system and a banking system that's in financial health and can make money to get the economy moving.”
2020-04-11 · Masters in Business · John Mousseau on Risk in the Fixed Income Market (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“No, and I guess one of the nice things of having a long career is I've seen the peak in interest rates and I've seen the low in interest rates like forever. You know, you don't think about negative interest rates when you think about textbooks back in the 1980s or 70s or even 90s. But you saw negative interest rates and you saw them in Europe over the last year. So if you get back from this particular crisis and go through last year, you saw negative rates not here. And our interest rates dropped in the US last summer, really not because the economy here was floundering, but because our rates were too high relative to what was going on around the world. And all negative rate means is that you're expecting rates to go more negative, so you want to lock in something, losing half a percent is better than losing 1%. So you want to lock that in. I think Europe...”
2020-04-11 · Masters in Business · John Mousseau on Risk in the Fixed Income Market (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“America bonds. Build America bonds, which is really to try to get municipalities to borrow in the taxable market because at that point treasuries were at three and long tax rebonds were at six. So it was really ineffective borrowing. So this allowed them to get a 35% subsidy from the federal government. It really lowered their borrowing cost to something under 4%. And they were essentially building new things. So think about an airport building, a new runway, or a state university building, a new dorm where they're pouring concrete, hiring people, building stuff. That was the stimulative nature of it. Whether we see something like that here, we don't know. The administration has announced a $2 trillion infrastructure policy, but we haven't seen any particulars on it yet. I would think, though, that if you don't get inflation down the road from this amount of government spending, then...”
2020-04-11 · Masters in Business · John Mousseau on Risk in the Fixed Income Market (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Right. And you saw some other things like the BABS programs, et cetera. You might see a resurrection or something like that.”
2020-04-11 · Masters in Business · John Mousseau on Risk in the Fixed Income Market (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, what did we learn from the 08-09 area? And actually, it was essentially three rounds of quantitative easing. It never created inflation, even though you saw the Fed take their balance sheet up to what was then record levels and they were buying treasuries, agencies, and mortgages. The key to that was the fact, A, they were trying to keep rates lower, but it didn't create inflation because if they bought $100 million worth of treasuries and they bought it from the Bank of Barry Ritholz and deposited $100 million at 2 o'clock in the afternoon, the Bank of Barry Ritholz put that money back on deposit at the Fed earning a quarter of a percent. What it was not doing was lending the money out. So the velocity of money and the expansion of money that way was not happening. The quantitative easing was effectively keeping rates in a certain range. What could cause inflation is the $2 trillion plus clearly more money coming on the government spending side. And that's what you didn't have. I mean, you had $800 billion.”
2020-04-11 · Masters in Business · John Mousseau on Risk in the Fixed Income Market (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Absolutely. And not only has stabilized the short term market, which is also in disarray, but it helped to stabilize the long-term market because within that confined, there is the ability to take that beyond five years. I mean, Steve Minuchin can call up Jay Powell and say, we want this extended to 15 or 20 or 30 years, and they could do that.”
2020-04-11 · Masters in Business · John Mousseau on Risk in the Fixed Income Market (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Improvement in equities until you improve the bond market. So their first stop was to fix the short term bond market. Then you saw the legislation come in where the Treasury through the Fed as their agent was going to start to buy municipal bonds out to five years that have to be investment grade or better, not high yield. They haven't done it yet. Just the fact that they established it was enough to really improve the bond market a couple weeks ago as that package was putting together. So the Fed through either their ability to do credit facilities or their special ability to buy bonds out through six months, which they have and have not exercised, and now the ability of the Treasury to go through the Fed and try to buy bonds out through five years. All of that has helped shore up the market and it's been very important.”
2020-04-11 · Masters in Business · John Mousseau on Risk in the Fixed Income Market (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“The role is probably more important than ever. And you only have to look back at the last few weeks to figure it out. You look at the Fed and how did they step in on this crisis? Well, the first thing is that they fixed the short-term bond market. You think about things like revenue anticipation notes, bond anticipation notes. These are the things that money market funds invest in. Some of them are non-rated. They're promises to pay. The bid dropped out of the market in the middle of this crisis in mid-March. What the Fed did is they establish credit facilities that would buy these bonds from the money market funds, these RANs and TANs, at their cost basis, not at the market, and give them cash. So that kept the money market funds in business. And you can't really get”
2020-04-11 · Masters in Business · John Mousseau on Risk in the Fixed Income Market (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Really, economics of municipalities in the forefront when you're investing. If you went back to the worst period in our history, which was the Great Depression, and we don't think we're going back to that, you had about 1,700 municipalities in this country stopped paying their debt. Didn't mean they went bankrupt in a legal sense, but they just stopped paying. And in the end, as the economy turned around, they all, except for a few dust bowl towns in Oklahoma, Almost all paid off their debt in arrears and got carna on their debt and continue to pay. And that's because of the monopolistic powers that municipalities have. If a meteor came tomorrow and hit the St. Louis Water Authority, would they stop paying their debt? Yeah, most likely. When they rebuilt things and started to get debt service again, would they repay it? Absolutely.”
2020-04-11 · Masters in Business · John Mousseau on Risk in the Fixed Income Market (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, you can argue that Look at a lot of deals that have come in the last week or so. The long end of the tax rebond market, the high grade end, has restored itself to roughly about a 3% yield. That doesn't sound particularly high and it doesn't sound like a particularly rewarding yield if you think about the potential for downgrades down the road or a thinning of debt service coverage, et cetera. It does look relatively cheap when you compare it to a long treasury bond of 135, but I would contend the treasuries are probably a little overbought in here and municipal is maybe a little cheap and they're going to eventually meet in the middle. I think the important part is to keep The long term”
2020-04-11 · Masters in Business · John Mousseau on Risk in the Fixed Income Market (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Look at the MTA in New York City with the subways. You can certainly think of MTA as a poster child for transportation, and transportation is certainly a poster child for infrastructure. And I think that's one thing that the administration is really keen on. So I see certainly a lot of support for that. I see a lot of state of New York support for that. So I don't expect to see a default on that. It doesn't stop bonds from trading cheaper. We've seen that for sure. And that includes airport bonds as well. You look at the hub airports out there. The federal government is not going to have those airports go into default because they are necessary for the restoration of the economy when we're back at work and hopefully a month.”
2020-04-11 · Masters in Business · John Mousseau on Risk in the Fixed Income Market (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Good question, Barry. And what you look at is really twofold. One, Almost all bond issuers have debt service reserve funds Sometimes that can be a half year, sometimes a year depends on the issue. Will we see credit downgrades? Absolutely. You're seeing it now. Will you see invasion of debt service reserves? Sure, and you're going to see thinner debt service coverage across the board. That's a given. Don't think you're going to see massive defaults, especially if you come out of this within the next month or two. It's a torpedo to the side of the ship, but the ship is going to continue to sail. And then you start restoring debt service. We think that there is a lot of federal support for certainly some of the bigger agencies out there. Let's take a very high-profile one.”
2020-04-11 · Masters in Business · John Mousseau on Risk in the Fixed Income Market (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“That's exactly right. And you hadn't seen that before where the meltdown in the bond market was occurring alongside a meltdown in the stock market. The last time you really saw that was in 2008, and that was after Lehman failed. And that sell-off in municipal bond funds was credit related because Nobody knew whether anything was going to pay. In other words, when Lehman went under, it was like the 13th strike of a clock and people wondered, oh, does that mean my school district is not going to pay off its bonds or that the water authority won't pay off its bonds? It was really overdone, but that was the nature of that sell-off”
2020-04-11 · Masters in Business · John Mousseau on Risk in the Fixed Income Market (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Out there, but of course, about municipalities and how they're going to fare through this, our viewpoint on that is that most Really kind of high quality general obligation and essential service bonds are going to be fine. What you end up doing is you're looking at the essentiality of a service through the prism of the virus and things look a little different if you're talking about something like a rapid transit bond or an airport bond, et cetera. But that was not the cause of the sell-off in the mutual funds.”
2020-04-11 · Masters in Business · John Mousseau on Risk in the Fixed Income Market (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Firms out there on Wall Street are impotent to actually give you a bid on bonds because they couldn't hedge anything. And that combined with the stock market that had started to roll over, partly because of the price of oil was dropping and there was concern on the economy and the coronavirus picking up. And you suddenly had a perfect storm of dropping equity prices, people looking for cash wherever it could be, and that involved the selling of bond funds and bond ETFs into a market that was overwhelmed. So when you think about bond yields moving up from 2% to 4%, that is a historic rise in a very short period of time, 200 basis points, and essentially a doubling of yields. And like I said, most of that was almost all liquidity related and not credit related. And yet there are concerns.”
2020-04-11 · Masters in Business · John Mousseau on Risk in the Fixed Income Market (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Sure, Barry. I mean, it was certainly a march was certainly historic volatility and historic loss and almost historic rebounding. Still, I harken back to March 9th when treasury prices were spiking upward and yields were dropping and that rendered most”
2020-04-11 · Masters in Business · John Mousseau on Risk in the Fixed Income Market (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And that's true about the meltdown of mutual funds. Mutual fund manager won't sell what he'd like to sell, which might be, I'm making it up a hospital bond that he leaned the wrong way on and buying and doesn't have the greatest credit in the world. It's exactly what you said, Barry. You sell what you can sell, which is usually a high-grade bond”
2020-04-11 · Masters in Business · John Mousseau on Risk in the Fixed Income Market (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Sure, absolutely. In a total return manager is going to use that type of a distress in the market to go and change the mix of his portfolios. And in our view, that sell-off that you saw in March was not credit related. It was all liquidity related because of what was going on in the stock market. People wanted cash. It didn't matter whether it was in a bond mutual fund or a REIT or anything else, or selling gold. And by the end of that week, they were also selling treasury bonds. So anything to get cash.”
2020-04-11 · Masters in Business · John Mousseau on Risk in the Fixed Income Market (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Very similar, and I can tell you just from Having put trades on, we saw bond prices down over 25 points and certainly some discounted bonds from lower coupons. So think about a bond that came in December at 100 cents on the dollar that was trading at 75 cents on the dollar in mid-March. And less than a week later was being priced at par.”
2020-04-11 · Masters in Business · John Mousseau on Risk in the Fixed Income Market (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“That is a more than fair statement. It was not only a rebound, it was a rebound of historic proportion. So the backoff was also historic. He went essentially from 2% to 4% in about seven business days, six business days. And then you rebounded three-quarters of that in about three business days. I've been managing money for 36 years. I've never seen anything like it.”
2020-04-11 · Masters in Business · John Mousseau on Risk in the Fixed Income Market (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So, the poor guy whose only holdings is XYZ bond fund looks at his NAV the next day and that asset value and it's gone down. He says maybe I should sell some. So he sells some and the next day the mutual funds have to meet these redemptions by selling bonds into a market that's already eroding. So prices go down further. The next day same investor looks at my NAV went down further. I better sell some more. So now you've gotten yourself into a negative feedback loop of selling of mutual funds. And we saw that on an absolutely gargantuan level in the middle of March.”
2020-04-11 · Masters in Business · John Mousseau on Risk in the Fixed Income Market (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Think it's a very good point because you don't have control over that. And the route we just went through is a perfect example of that. You walked in the door March 9th and Treasury prices were skyrocketing because of the Saudi selling of oil. That meant that a lot of the corporate and municipal bond dealers couldn't hedge anything anymore with prices and treasuries doing what they were doing. So what did they do? They backed off their prices. So then the evaluation services don't have”
2020-04-11 · Masters in Business · John Mousseau on Risk in the Fixed Income Market (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Good bond market, you can find assets in the portfolio that have not been hurt price-wise and used them to your advantage. So I think individual bonds offers a much greater degree of flexibility.”
2020-04-11 · Masters in Business · John Mousseau on Risk in the Fixed Income Market (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Now, we will use individual bonds as we put portfolios together. Our thoughts have always been that the final product looks much better when you have individual bonds as opposed to owning mutual funds. And part of that reason is the ability to input certain yield levels and duration levels into portfolios. You know, the other part too is just talking about mutual funds in general. The difference between owning a portfolio of individual bonds and owning a mutual fund of bonds is the fact that if you own a mutual fund, you're subservient to one price and one price only, and that's the price of that fund at the end of the day, or if it's an ETF, the price of that ETF at the end of the day. If you own individual bonds, they can be spread out. They can have some longer-term bonds and some shorter-term bonds. So if there's a need for cash, and maybe it's not a particularly”
2020-04-11 · Masters in Business · John Mousseau on Risk in the Fixed Income Market (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“They are certainly behemoths out there, but look, you can look at that and say, Does that work to your advantage or not? As a smaller investment advisor relative to those guys, a BlackRock's not going to care about a $25 million water bond from eastern Ohio, some school district. We care about a $25 million water bond from eastern Ohio because it's meaningful to us. To the extent that they've gotten too big and a lot of issues aren't relevant to them, we can take advantage of that. So I would disagree with Dave a little bit.”
2020-04-11 · Masters in Business · John Mousseau on Risk in the Fixed Income Market (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It's a uniform identification system, so each bond has its own unique identifier which is crucial to identifying the bond itself, as well as processing the trade later on.”
2020-04-11 · Masters in Business · John Mousseau on Risk in the Fixed Income Market (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Again, it differs. When you're in the world of corporates and mortgages and treasuries, it's a fairly defined universe of bonds. And putting portfolios together is probably a little easier than on the tax-free side where you probably have a million different QSIPs out there. And that's because of the nature of many bond issues that come to market where they have cereal bonds and term bonds. And so just the amount of issues is almost overwhelming. So in the tax-free side, only a fraction of the available bonds that are out there actually trade every day.”
2020-04-11 · Masters in Business · John Mousseau on Risk in the Fixed Income Market (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“There's some differences, and there's some similarities, Barry. I think the biggest difference, of course, is electronic trading, much more prevalent on the taxable side. On the municipal side, you actually still need to talk to dealers and underwriters. And that's because of the diffuse nature of the municipal bond market. The municipal bond market is still much more of a people business. You have to kind of know where the bonds are, where the levels are, who's offering what bonds. On the corporate side, it is much more electronic oriented block trading oriented. And that's been the biggest change. So a lot less people, clearly a lot less firms and bigger volume electronically.”
2020-04-11 · Masters in Business · John Mousseau on Risk in the Fixed Income Market (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Boy, that was a while ago. And if you go back, one of Bill Clinton's favorite lines was, and I'm taking out the swear words, but do you mean I really have to bow down to all the bond traders? And the answer back then from Alan Greenspan is, yes, you do. They figured out a way back then to actually lower the government deficit and actually get it to a surplus. And along the way, interest rates came down, which was really not a surprise. Now you've gone the other way, and the deficits really haven't mattered, and you're at all times lows in yields. So to answer your question, a lot of that has been thrown out the door”
2020-04-11 · Masters in Business · John Mousseau on Risk in the Fixed Income Market (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Convexity is really the, they call it the second derivative. So if you look at a bond and you can judge its duration or basically how much the price changes for a given change in yield, the convexity will tell you how fast that duration is changing. It's like the equivalent of acceleration to speed.”
2020-04-11 · Masters in Business · John Mousseau on Risk in the Fixed Income Market (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“No, there's a lot more that goes into it. It's not just credit quality, it's relative credit quality. It's not just duration. It's a relative duration to the market. And it's the structure of bonds too. Call protection or lack of call protection. A convexity comes in. I mean, that's really, a lot of those judgments are what you would call total return bond management. And that's where David Kotak, who's still the chairman of Cumberland, and I agreed early on. We saw the world the same and the world of bonds.”
2020-04-11 · Masters in Business · John Mousseau on Risk in the Fixed Income Market (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I think the idea is, particularly with municipal bonds, it's not my line, but I thought it was a great line. They don't make you rich, but they keep you rich. The idea of bond investing over time and the compounding of interest, it's terrific. And you go back and look back to the early 1980s when interest rates were high. If you had bought something like zero coupon strips at 14% interest or 30 years, it would have been very hard to replicate that anywhere else.”
2020-04-11 · Masters in Business · John Mousseau on Risk in the Fixed Income Market (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Really always. Enjoyed fixed income because of the way tied together math and the idea that all bond prices more or less moved in the same direction, but none of them moved in the same velocity. And depending on maturities, et cetera. So it always had a lot more appeal to me. And it's funny because when I started at ValueLine and you're actually analyzing earnings of companies, I was excellent at predicting earnings and still couldn't figure out why a stock might hit their earnings but go down or go up. And bonds always tied together much more rationally for me.”
2020-04-11 · Masters in Business · John Mousseau on Risk in the Fixed Income Market (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“From there, I spent the next 12 years at a combined firms of EF Hutton and then Sheerson after they took over Hutton and did most of my work there in the beginning years for the bond department and the municipal bond department and eventually ended up doing portfolio analysis at Hutton and ended up basically running a portfolio analysis group right to 1993 where we analyzed municipal bond portfolios and suggested changes and In 1993, I went to Lord Abbott and became the director of municipal bond management. That was a great spot, learned a lot from Bob Dow who ran the firm and ran the fixed income area there. And I was there until the year 2000. And that's the year I joined Cumberland Advisors.”
2020-04-11 · Masters in Business · John Mousseau on Risk in the Fixed Income Market (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yes, a little shout for confidentiality, and I can remember him saying to me we were there out over a couple of beers. He goes, Musa, if I ever hit it really big, I'm going to buy a hockey team. And sure enough, he did.”
2020-04-11 · Masters in Business · John Mousseau on Risk in the Fixed Income Market (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“You know, it ran that way for a long time before they got to the internet age. And what you did as a securities analyst there is you really wrote script to fit the model for the stocks that had a relative value model that ranks stocks. But like I said, it was a great place to learn. Still have a lot of friends from there. Met Jeff Vinnick there, who was my desk mate early on. You know, the fact of the product is still out there today says a lot.”
2020-04-11 · Masters in Business · John Mousseau on Risk in the Fixed Income Market (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Barry, thanks. I walked in off the streets in New York in the fall of 1980 and answered an ad from the New York Times for the Value Line Investment Survey. They gave me a quiz and hired me as an assistant securities analyst.”
2020-04-11 · Masters in Business · John Mousseau on Risk in the Fixed Income Market (Podcast) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source