YouSaid · the spoken record

John Roque

lines on the record: 105
first: 2016-12-19
most recent: 2016-12-19
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

Every line below is reproduced as it was said and linked to the record it came from. Nothing here is summarised or generated. Directory · Search · Corrections

“And that's the reason that at that level that sometimes you would say a younger guy, you'd say you have to be swinging in that situation and sometimes they're not swinging because they're not guessing at that pitch.”
2016-12-19 · Masters in Business · Interview With John Roque: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, without a doubt, and they're playing a game in their head all the time, right? Which is why, and I've said to my sons during the playoffs in the World Series, if you really watch baseball closely, you'll watch that major league baseball players swing at pitches, not necessarily at strikes. And by that I mean you'll be watching a game and you'll see a guy take a pitch right down the middle and you might say to yourself, how could he not swing at that? And the reason he wasn't swinging at it is because he wasn't guessing on that pitch. You know, he got a fastball. He may have been looking for a curveball. He got a curveball. He may have been looking for a fastball. So they're guessing, right? And they're playing a mental game, a calculation game, or a game of probability versus the pitcher.”
2016-12-19 · Masters in Business · Interview With John Roque: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So I have been able to sit in on some of his presentations. So the answer to that question is yes. I think he does some really good work about that.”
2016-12-19 · Masters in Business · Interview With John Roque: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, I read the book when I was a player. I bought the book and tried to help my sons with it when they were players. And I tried to use some of his methods when I was coaching. And I would just tell my kids, if it's good, you got to be swinging. And if you're in certain counts, you need to be a hitter. You can't be taking pitches. And I know it's inappropriate or not, it's not the right way to say it, but to Little League players, but nobody ever went to the Hall of Fame being a good walker. You got there by being a good hitter.”
2016-12-19 · Masters in Business · Interview With John Roque: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“He said to Williams that the single most important thing for a hitter was to get a good ball to hit. In other words, to swing at strikes. And I think the same thing can be applied to stocks. For example, you have to hit according to your style and not swing at stocks that are out of your strike zone. And I think that increases your chance of winning.”
2016-12-19 · Masters in Business · Interview With John Roque: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So I am a sports junkie, but I think that there are metaphorical examples that transfer seamlessly, and I'll give you one. So baseball people will tell you that Ted Williams is the greatest hitter of all time And he wrote a book entitled The Science of Hitting. And one of the chapters in the book is called Hit According to Your Style. And he relates a story that was told to him or an anecdote that was told to him by Rogers Hornsby Rogers with an S, right? Rogers Hornsby, who was the greatest right-handed hitter of all time. He's the last right-handed hitter to hit 400, and he actually averaged 400 over five seasons. Really? The only guy in Major League history to do that.”
2016-12-19 · Masters in Business · Interview With John Roque: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“While it was peaking in 2006-7, right around the time when the financial says a percent of the SP 500 got to about 22% on a relative market cap basis.”
2016-12-19 · Masters in Business · Interview With John Roque: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“City was doing told you a lot about City. It told you a lot about the banks and it told you a lot about the market. So it was an excellent bellwether.”
2016-12-19 · Masters in Business · Interview With John Roque: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So my former partner at Lehman Brothers, Steve Shobin, taught me about the importance of bellwether. So over time, I've tried to find and define sector or market bellwethers. Now, for a long time, you'll recall this. People use General Motors. As General Motors went, so went the market. People used IBM for a long time. We, Steve Shobin, and I used General Electric. And then as you went into the mid-2000s, Citigroup was the most important stock in the entire world, not just the most important stock in the S&P 500.”
2016-12-19 · Masters in Business · Interview With John Roque: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I think it's been equally difficult I think it's been a very difficult period. The market, in my mind, has. The market is driven ETFs drive stocks. Stocks don't drive ETFs. And I think the market. On any given day, can do just about anything because your algo is an aggressive buyer and then my algo follows your algo and my algo is an aggressive buyer. But it has been exceedingly difficult. And I think were it not for the Fed pinning the Fed funds rate where it is, perhaps the environment might be a little bit different.”
2016-12-19 · Masters in Business · Interview With John Roque: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I think we've been in there a 666 low. In 2009, and up from 09 to now, the cumulative return would say time and price, you have been in a bull market. But you got most of that through, let's call it. The midpoint of 2014 or the autumn of 2014, and from the autumn of 2014 to now, you've really marked time by going sideways, although it's been difficult and Ajita filled. But I tend not to think of things. Secularly or cyclically, I tend to think of things can I make money on the long side or can I make money on the short side? That's the way I tend to approach things because I don't want to be locked into a viewpoint”
2016-12-19 · Masters in Business · Interview With John Roque: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Sideways going, if you were in the Fang Stocks, it was a bull market But I think if you were in the index, you would probably say it wasn't a bull market, but it wasn't a bear market either”
2016-12-19 · Masters in Business · Interview With John Roque: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Just may need to rest. It could need to pause, but I would say that the pattern that's in there is a very good technical setup. I'd also say with respect to the financials, during the period when they were underperforming, I would ask myself and my counterparties on the sell side, are we in a bull market? And more often than not, you'd hear people say yes. But during that entire time, the S&P was up maybe 2% or 3%”
2016-12-19 · Masters in Business · Interview With John Roque: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Because it was just so darn sudden. Right. So quite recently, the SP diversified bank index was 22% above its 22 or 23% above its 200-day moving average. I'd say that's like an athlete who sprinted a long way very quickly in a short period of time.”
2016-12-19 · Masters in Business · Interview With John Roque: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Very poor Right, and the only bank group that was doing pretty well of G7 markets was Canada. So to have avoided financials for that period wasn't such a bad idea. It was only in the last week where you really had a tremendous performance.”
2016-12-19 · Masters in Business · Interview With John Roque: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, so I'm always going through my process and always going through the now 11 S&P economic sectors, financials are one of the 11. There were formerly 10 S&P broke out REITs from the financials. Now they're 11. And I noticed that during a 22-month period from December 2014 through October 2016, the financials had gone through four important setbacks, 9%, 14, 22, and 10.5. And they had underperformed the S&P during that 22-month period. To have them as an underweight or to be cautious on them probably wasn't such a bad idea. In addition, at the same time, European banks and Japanese banks were.”
2016-12-19 · Masters in Business · Interview With John Roque: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Because for a fund of some size, a house It doesn't make much sense to focus on stocks of smaller market capitalizations because it's very difficult to move the needle. So I want to focus on the largest market cap stocks in a sector that is trending because I think I can get the better longer dated performance from those stocks.”
2016-12-19 · Masters in Business · Interview With John Roque: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I'm looking for wild extremes, but I'm also looking for trends within those relative market caps. Relative market cap is sort of a way of saying relative price. And if relative market cap continues to steadily move higher, then I'm going to figure that the trend for that sector is intact, firm, strong, and advancing. And I should be looking for stocks in that sector that I should be biased toward the upside with.”
2016-12-19 · Masters in Business · Interview With John Roque: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, and then in 2006, the relative market cap of financials grew to be more than 20% of the S&P 500, cracked at 22 and a third at 22.5%. And I thought that that was going to be really bad because the financials, not only did they have a big market cap, but even a technical guy would probably tell you how important they are to the economy.”
2016-12-19 · Masters in Business · Interview With John Roque: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“On a relative market cap basis. And when it first cracked, I knew that Icarus had flown too close to the sun. And I knew that we were going to have a very painful bear market. And it was going to be more than a flesh wound, to paraphrase the Black Knight from Monty Python. And so I thought tech was going to get destroyed.”
2016-12-19 · Masters in Business · Interview With John Roque: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“One of them was as tech was making its apotheosis in late 99 and early 2000. And tech had grown to be about a third of the weight of the S&P 500.”
2016-12-19 · Masters in Business · Interview With John Roque: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Correct and do it on a relative market cap basis. That's right. That's a percent of the SP. And I thought that was, I mean, he really opened my eyes to a section of the market that I was formerly not aware of or how to use it in an analytical sense. And so I used it to great success. I'll say it politely, to some success, in two particular instances after that.”
2016-12-19 · Masters in Business · Interview With John Roque: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Okay, so all credit goes to a former client of mine by the name of Bob Rossetti, who was at Morgan Stanley Asset Management at the time, Morgan Stanley Capital Management. And he was a very technically focused guy. Although a fundamental guy, but very technically focused. And one day he said to me, you know, I have some data that might be of interest to you. And he shared the data with me, which was sort of giving me the keys to the kingdom. How long ago is that?”
2016-12-19 · Masters in Business · Interview With John Roque: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Receptive is a good word, and so I'm just I've been lucky that the gentleman I'm working with now and have worked with over five years is receptive to ideas and intellectually open and willing to listen to my imaginations.”
2016-12-19 · Masters in Business · Interview With John Roque: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I think an idea is an idea irrespective of which side of the business you're on. And I think the person that you're speaking to, and I happen to be speaking to a person who is intellectually open, his name is Scott Bessant and always willing to listen to an idea. And because he's like that, it gives me confidence to continue to present those ideas. It's sort of like when you're on the sell side and you have a client that you get along with really well, you'll call that person. All the time, and you'll show that person all of your ideas because they're willing recipients of those ideas. And some of your clients, when being on the sell side, were probably less”
2016-12-19 · Masters in Business · Interview With John Roque: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Very nice, or traveling to market my product was a great thrill. Being on Wall Street Week with Lewis Rukaiser was. You know, a bucket list kind of thing to do, but I'm equally happy being on the buy side and I put all my energy and emphasis into putting out product that I think is going to help Key Square Capital Management.”
2016-12-19 · Masters in Business · Interview With John Roque: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I actually think it's natural that macro and technical analysis are complementary, in my opinion. One of my favorite books in the business is a book entitled More Money Than God, which is written by Sebastian Malley. And in it, you read about all of the storied hedge funds and about guys in our business whose faces are on the Mount Rushmore of Investing, and you realize just how important technical analysis was or is to their process. I think it's just a natural and it wasn't a shock to me.”
2016-12-19 · Masters in Business · Interview With John Roque: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, I read the same story, but I would probably say that was akin to a very strong intuition. And I think after being in the business for a long period of time, we all develop intuitions that we listen to with a very attentive ear.”
2016-12-19 · Masters in Business · Interview With John Roque: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I'm going to try to create a metaphor. I think it was, to me, it was sort of like being able to play basketball for a University of North Carolina Tar Heels when Dean Smith was the coach. Okay.”
2016-12-19 · Masters in Business · Interview With John Roque: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I think it's just so people become familiar with you and your research. And I think when people become familiar with you, there's a trust aspect that grows. And for somebody who was formerly selling research, I think that's a really important concept to building a business. You have to develop a trust aspect with the people who are going to pay you commission dollars for your research.”
2016-12-19 · Masters in Business · Interview With John Roque: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, I mean, you prefaced it. I mean, Ed Hyman taught us all that annotating charts simply and clearly really goes a long way to making your research more palatable to the people who are paying for it. So he's the godfather of it, to tell the truth”
2016-12-19 · Masters in Business · Interview With John Roque: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“My process includes trying, and I'm going to emphasize the word trying To monitor or pay attention to all sorts of traded prices. Their corresponding yields, commodities, currencies, sectors, indexes, stocks across all sorts of time zones, not only. And I've built some screening tools, some scoring. And like any other technical person or any other chart person, I look at a ton of charts and I've taken that discipline from the sell side and I've tried to apply it on the buy side.”
2016-12-19 · Masters in Business · Interview With John Roque: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Correct. Yeah, and I think the exercise sort of was a good exercise to allow them to say, hey, there's something there. And if we remove our biases, we can actually pick up some important information.”
2016-12-19 · Masters in Business · Interview With John Roque: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I think some people who had the objectivity. Would say, oh, well, okay, I don't care what the name is. The darn chart looks good. It must be that the story's pretty good. And other people might have been a little bit dismissive of it. Oh, yeah, okay, but I'm not interested. But I think before you were before.”
2016-12-19 · Masters in Business · Interview With John Roque: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I think it's very hard, which is why sometimes when I was on the sell side, I would send out charts that I would, reports entitled Mystery Charts. And I would say the first person who gets this question right, I'll buy him lunch next time I'm in their town. And you'd be surprised how many people would be quick to respond. And I would put the chart. I would put the technical characteristics of it, but I would take the title off of it. And I think when people saw it without the title, they made a more objective decision than when they saw it with the title. And I think that's a good way to think about it.”
2016-12-19 · Masters in Business · Interview With John Roque: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Branch Ricky said luck is the residue of design, right? I mean, the harder I work, the luckier I get. All those things are appropriate. I think it is.”
2016-12-19 · Masters in Business · Interview With John Roque: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So they would apply that to your question and say it's a little bit of science, it's a little bit of poetry, it's all those things put together”
2016-12-19 · Masters in Business · Interview With John Roque: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And I'm going to paraphrase it and I'm going to cuff the comment. But in the book, he said, when you play poker, everybody wants to master the rules, right? When you raise, when you fold, right? That's important. He said, but winning at poker is about mastering the luck. Think that's appropriate for our business as well.”
2016-12-19 · Masters in Business · Interview With John Roque: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I think it's a lot of both. So I'm fond of this book that I read earlier in my career. It's not an investment book. It's a poker book. It's called Shut Up and Deal. And it's written by a guy named Jesse May.”
2016-12-19 · Masters in Business · Interview With John Roque: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, just to give you an example, when I was at Soros Fund Management, I surveyed, let's call it 12 technical types every week. And I ask them, buy, sell, or neutral on a 10 roster item list. And you'd be surprised how many people came back with items that were different from the person who had just responded. So you could have 12 people responding every week and there would be no quorum as to what, let's say, item A is doing. And so my former partner, Steve Chaubin at Lehman, was fond of saying it's the singer and not the song.”
2016-12-19 · Masters in Business · Interview With John Roque: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I think the misconceptions are that technical analysis sees all. It may be that it does, but no technical analyst sees all”
2016-12-19 · Masters in Business · Interview With John Roque: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Richard Russell said the most difficult thing in the business is to stick with a bull market the entire way through. And the second most difficult thing in the business is to stay out of a bear market the entire way through. So I'd say trend following is pretty darn difficult. Richard Russell was pretty ahead of the game with that one.”
2016-12-19 · Masters in Business · Interview With John Roque: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“No, I don't think it's oversimplifying it at all, but how many people do you know in a business are willing to stick with that trend until it's finished?”
2016-12-19 · Masters in Business · Interview With John Roque: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I think technical analysis is about trend. It is not about trading. There are some people who are really good at trading, but I'm not. And I think in the advent of machines at hyper speed, The less we talk about trading, the likely we're going to be more successful at our trend following discipline. So, I think technicals are about trend. Trend is the most, in my opinion, understood investment concept, however, because it's very hard to identify.”
2016-12-19 · Masters in Business · Interview With John Roque: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“That's correct. I mean, if you think about it this way, you know, you might say to me that I'm buying this stock because it's cheap. And I'll say that's true, but it doesn't win because it stays cheap. It wins because by definition it gets momentum and gets less cheap.”
2016-12-19 · Masters in Business · Interview With John Roque: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I think charts measure the dynamic between buyers and sellers supply and demand. Now, you know, you're a longtime market participant, and you might say to me, well, John, for every buyer, there has to be a seller. And I'd say, I agree 100%. But technical analysis tells us who's more aggressive, the buyer or the seller. And I think that's a very important concept. So we might say, yeah, for every buyer, there's a seller. Yeah, but if I'm the buyer and I want to pay more for it because I really think it's going up, that is information that is readily available in the start.”
2016-12-19 · Masters in Business · Interview With John Roque: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“You could buy chart books from them, they would also be delivered on a weekly basis. That sort of took Mansfield and upgraded a little bit. But those were the only ways to do it, really. That was it. So at what point did you say, gee, I'm a pure technician. I'm not really looking at a whole lot else besides technicals. Well, when at SAFI and Investment Research, I thought that doing it from a technical point of view allowed me to see a lot of things pretty darn quickly rather than focusing on one thing and being in depth. And I like the overview aspect. And at that point, although my thesis paper was on kana peripherals and it was using financial statement analysis, I was sort of wholly technical and I've been wholly technical since.”
2016-12-19 · Masters in Business · Interview With John Roque: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And you sent in your check and you would get New York Stock Exchange or Nasdaq Amex charts. Weekly giant book would show up. It was actually almost like loosely paper. Right. You could update stuff on regular and they were delivered on a Saturday morning. Is that right? You could put it in a binder, but I would end up flipping through it, throwing out the ones I didn't want, keeping the ones I did. And it came in cellophane paper. And some guy would drop it off like your newspaper on a Saturday morning on your front stoop. If I recall, they were located in Jersey City so they could get to New York City people quickly as opposed to where, you know, being on the other side of the country. They had it printed and then drop it off in the region. Yeah, it was an excellent service. The charts were easy to read and nobody had this sort of stuff at your home, right? Bloomberg coming into your house was unthinkable. Unthinkable. You didn't have the internet. You didn't have the computing power. You didn't have anything. Right. So, and then investors business daily.”
2016-12-19 · Masters in Business · Interview With John Roque: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Lead to charting? Well, every single day, I know this will sound really old school or dinosaur-like, at the end of the day, I would print out 90 prices from my Bloomberg. There was one Bloomberg in the whole shop. Right. And I would graph using pencil and a ruler and graph paper, the high, low, and closing prices for 90 stocks for every day for four years. You are not the only technician who's said that. We've had from Jeff to Graf to Louisianata to Paul Desmond to Ralph Acampura. It seems that this generation and the previous generation of people all graft by hand in the early days of. Well, that was the only way to do it when it really came down to it. The Mansfield chart used to be delivered on a Saturday morning to your house, but they were through Thursday prices. Explain what that is. So youngins aren't going to know what that is. Mansfield was out of New Jersey. I think it was Jersey City, and it was a subscription price.”
2016-12-19 · Masters in Business · Interview With John Roque: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Ken was kind enough to hire me. So you come out of school with an MBA, you start working for a boutique research firm. How does that morph into a CMT? How does that morph into technicals? Well, to be honest, I'm not a CMT, but I'll tell you how it morphed into technicals. So Ken Saffian did a ton of economic work, but he also did a ton of technical work. In fact, he had a process in the late 60s, 70s called the dual market principle where he saw the market as being delineated between growth stocks and cyclical stocks at different points in an economic cycle. So he did a lot of cutting-edge technical work, and he allowed me to join in to maintain and create and keep economic indicators as well as technical indicators. And I think it was sort of, you know, he opened the kimono for lack of a better phrase. And I got to see a lot of things. I became very interested. So how did that?”
2016-12-19 · Masters in Business · Interview With John Roque: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source