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John Spears

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  1. Sure, I would say that William Green is an excellent interviewer. What's probing questions that make one think? And I've appreciated the opportunity to have this interview with you, to know you. I felt that way also when we met, I guess, seven years ago.

    2022-12-25 · We Study Billionaires · RWH019: Winning the Long Game w/ John Spears · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  2. Long run for society. That's a very big philosophical view, but it's one that I happen to hold, and I could be all wrong. Two of my three daughters don't agree with me. I mean, they're not in my political camp.

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  3. I use Excel all the time and Word and some of these things. So I just think that's true. I think that there's a perception by many in society that allocation of more and more resources to the government is morally the way to go. And there are nice things about safety net welfare programs and I support a safety net in society. But I think that from my standpoint, if you have a shifting gradually of more and more resources from the more creative and more efficient and dynamic private sector to the government sector with aspects of inefficiency, politicization, bureaucracy, et cetera, and no real incentives to be more efficient, that it's kind of bad.

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  4. I think that capitalism in general has, as I just Effect on society itself. I mean, you know, Bill Gates is going to give away most of his fortune, but I think the Microsoft products are enormously useful.

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  5. Of businesses, which I think are good. So I just don't understand that anti-business aspect of current Quaker society, at least on the east coast of the United States, as I perceive it.

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  6. Extremely different. In my estate planning, I think my largest other than my family, my largest recipient will be, if I die tomorrow, American Enterprise Institute. I believe that strongly in the good that capitalism does. I mean, obviously, it employs people. It's creative. New products, new innovations, improvements on what had been before that benefit all society. I've always had that idea of a sort of a smile on the face of capitalism, of the moral rightness in general of capitalism. Of course, there are a lot of crooks in business that are, but I just think that that's a truth and that you can, most businesses, I think are honestly run if they're not. They lose their employees. They lose their customers. There are constraints on the behavior.

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  7. It certainly seems for you, it's natural. You come into a place of naturally being willing to have a bit of a spiritual sense in your life and not just saying, well, I can't prove it, though, but I respect that too.

    2022-12-25 · We Study Billionaires · RWH019: Winning the Long Game w/ John Spears · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  8. Yes, yes. And I think, you know, working as an investor, you're dealing with thinking about things that could, might happen in the future, obviously it's not knowable. It's guessable, but it's not knowable. So you have sort of a framework of faith and anticipation of rational anticipation of surprise, of things that can turn out quite unpredictably, quite unlike what you thought earlier. So there's kind of a mystery, an awe in that. And I think that there is or is not, depending on the person, this sort of leap of faith or you can say, well, why not have some faith? Why not? You could be wrong. But I think that for many of us human beings, it's useful. It's healthy. And for many of us.

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  9. On the mount, that people throughout time, I mean, not everyone, but a lot of people have had a spiritual sense, a sense of things. It could be a sense of awe about beauty, about natural beauty or a great conversation that you had with someone or all kinds of things. You can have a connection that is remarkable and uplifting with someone at the cash register, at the supermarket, or with someone whose server at a restaurant. I don't know. It's just kind of a, but I've often had experiences in meeting for worship that for me have been very, very moving and strange and strange, kind of, Michael. Where did that come from? Yeah.

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  10. Indeed, I mean, I remember the first time I ever attended a Quaker meeting for worship just by struck by that, by the equality of it, that there was no minister, there was no, this is the way you have to do it. This is our checklist. We have all the answers. There was none of that. And it was the idea of, I call it direct dial to God without a priest or a minister. And I just like that idea and I like the idea of sitting in silence. And sometimes someone will speak and have, you'll just be moved by it, a remarkable feeling. And I remember maybe it was Warren Buffett said one time that you really don't need to get a PhD in theology. You can do pretty well with the Ten Commandments and reading the sermon.

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  11. I always lo Right. There's another one. Somebody said God laughed. And you can laugh a lot at all the things that have to do with human behavior, human nature. If you approach looking at the newspaper with a sense of humor.

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  12. Well, I've always liked the idea of imperfection. Good. And I just think that humility under God, that none of us are perfect creatures. I often, when my wife or somebody does some dumb little thing, I'll say, well, you'll be perfect in the next 12 months, 12 months from now. You'll finally be perfect. And I think that that attitude applies to oneself. I mean, you try to do the best you can, but I kind of a recognition almost of God's grace of kind of your count your blessings. Try to look at the glass half full, but don't whip yourself too hard when you make a mistake or you're not perfect or you say something that was stupid or dumb and you regret saying it. Try to get over it. Move on.

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  13. You say, meaning sort of speak your truth, be honest, try to be honest and truthful, and try not to fake it. If you're faking it, he called it, it's a mask. You want to be, try to be honest, that's something that has had an impact on me. I'm no perfect person, but these Quaker sayings and mottos, I think, have been very useful to me.

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  14. I'm really impressed with. I think that it has helped me in trying to deal with other people, with hopefully deal being okay partner with my partners to sometimes disagree, but with respect and with humility that my opinion could be way wrong. I don't have any perfect track record, any of that kind of thing, trying to live with one's family with those ideas. Yeah, and also the Quakers, the religious society of friends is both communitarian and at the same time individualistic, the founder of Quakerism, George Fox would say to his followers, what canst thou say, meaning what can you say as a human being, as an individual, as a unique creature, one of God's children?

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  15. It's a great social return on investment. I've been blessed with an oddball education, but a good one, an efficient one for what I wanted to do. But I think it's just a ripoff that these kids are not getting a good education in the public schools and in a way, there's a political aspect to it. Also, the teachers union. It's a huge contributor to Democratic Party politicians that negotiate wage agreements, contracts with the teachers union. And anyway, that's just what it is. That's politics in New Jersey.

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  16. And I just feel I'm getting a good bang for the buck supporting this school, helping kids really, all the seniors last four or five years have been admitted to some college, some further education. So I helped support that. I feel very good about that.

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  17. And the amount of spending per pupil at those schools is among the highest in the country. And typically, right now, I think it's around 24,000, 25,000 per student, and the results stink. But I invested in three different charter schools. The last one, the most recent one, has been a great success, Foundation Academy Charter School. And when all schools in New Jersey, all public schools and charter schools are ranked on educational results, educational outcomes for the students, academic results, it's in the top 8% 92% or lower academically than this school. And all the kids are selected through lottery.

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  18. That's one of my favorites. I've always thought that the, well, the charter schools that I've been involved with have been in Trenton, New Jersey, which is a very poor area. Most of the people are either African Americans or people of Hispanic descent. And New Jersey has report cards for all the public schools and charter schools. So you can see what percentage of the students are proficient in math and reading. The public school results are absolutely atrocious. Five, you know, like schools where 5% of the kids were proficient in math or 10% proficient in reading. Just abysmal.

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  19. Yes, yes, I think that is fair to say. You hit it right on the head, right on the nail. Yeah. I mean, I like working in a quiet room, working at things that interest me. I have other interests that have come with having some wealth. I've got some philanthropic interests that provide a little diversity.

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  20. Yeah, like I like to Brown Brothers Harriman has 200 year history. Wouldn't it be nice if Tweedy could have that and continue doing sensible things with other people's money? In ETFs, I think the firm should be in ETFs. We're exploring that. ETFs have great under current tax rules have great tax advantages for tax paying investors. I think that makes sense. It's serving our clients, our taxpaying clients who are like me and Will Brown and Tom Schrager and Bob Wykoff and other people in the firm. Obviously we're taxpaying investors. So it's, again, this community of interest. So I'd like that. we're exploring other things having to do with the insider signal as a very very good pond to fish in.

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  21. I think that's fair to say. Yeah, you know, what's another so many millions? As I used to be, but I've still got something. It's not an enormous part of my wealth, but I still have some skin in the game. But I really like the people and the business has not had a great last few years because of the underperformance of the value style, even though our largest pool of capital has done extremely well compared to other international investment managers. But the absolute returns, as we both know, have not set the world on fire compared to competitive returns such as an index funds where the fees are much lower than our fees. But anyway, I'd like to see the firm continue for another many decades.

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  22. I mean, in a way, I'm not the best kind of a husband because I have been a fairly hard worker through enjoyment or maybe obsessiveness. I've enjoyed the work. So I will often do things on the weekend that are work-oriented and business-oriented reading and stuff. So I don't have as many diverse interests as a lot of human beings. And I think that's not necessarily a positive in a marriage. quality time.

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  23. It's riveting. It's so interesting. So there's a great fun in reading the newspaper with an economic orientation, a philosophical orientation. So that's a blessing. I think that if I had been married to a woman who was an enormous spender, just wanted to buy the fanciest car or this or that, it would have been a very tense relationship. It wouldn't have worked. My wife, it's very content with we've always felt wealthy, always because we've always lived below our means. And when we were young, we ate in cheap restaurants. And now we spend more, but we have more than we can spend. So I think having a partner who's supportive of your work is a blessing.

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  24. About reading the newspaper surprise things that what's happened to Facebook in terms of the relationship to Apple and changes in their growth rates. And this guy going into stream world, the meta world, the metaverse.

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  25. But I think the spotlight should be on the whole firm. The firm is a team. I'm just one wheel on the bicycle, on the tricycle or the car and the employees. All these things have contributed to my luck and good fortune in life. I'm very grateful for that. I'm very grateful for being able to work in a field that is intellectually stimulating to me, enjoyable. I read the newspapers, I read the New York Times, Wall Street Journal. Occasionally I read the Financial Times, not every day like a number of people in my firm. But there are always things that are just so interesting. They're things that are quirky and defy things that you didn't think would happen that did happen. And so there's a sense of humor about reading or irony.

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  26. I don't know anything about comparative happiness everyone's an individual. You don't know their happy data, sad day ratios and stuff. But I think I am pretty happy most of the time. And I think that I count my blessings. I'm grateful for my good fortune. I'm grateful to have the luck of having great business partners. I was reluctant to do this interview because I think that

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  27. Exactly, exactly. The way I think of it as on a group basis, you know, a number of these things, you'll do okay. You'll make money. You'll have a satisfactory return. You'll sleep at night. You have an inherent theoretical see-through to the business versus the stock price margin of safety.

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  28. Another one Plastic molding equipment and stuff. And it was CEO buying. And I think that's a little bit more of a business that might be off the radar as a business that the Chinese Communist Party wants to attack.

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  29. The firm thinks that these companies are worth holding. And they do value low valuations are part and parcel to behavioral aspects, people feeling negative about things. So these stocks could be great. It would be arrogant and obnoxious of me to say that they won't be great, that they're, you know, so I don't know. I do own a few shares of a company in China, Haitian group.

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  30. I think there's some wisdom in that. I mean, I always for myself, when I have a choice of buying something or not, my framework is comparisons. And let's say I find something, I don't know, like Tesco, I own Tesco personally in my own account. And there have been insider buying in it. It seemed pretty low price earnings ratio, pretty good dividend yield. They own a lot of their own stores in fee. They're not all leased stores. So there's a value in the real estate. I felt very comfortable with that. I'm less comfortable personally with the tech companies that the dictator of China seems to be going after. I mean, comparison, do I have to buy in my own account, Alibaba? I don't have to do that. I buy dull old Tesco. Now, which one will do better? I don't know. I don't know.

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  31. It's a great question. I don't own Alibaba. I did own one, I own a few Chinese stocks myself, but I think it would be better if you ask my partners about that. Clearly, in terms of the analysts following those companies, they see them on the numbers as being very, very cheap and still major businesses with growth prospects in China. You do have a very good question with Mr. Z and his most recent pronouncements and the way China seems to be tilting.

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  32. Not for finding stuff that's cheap. We're not, we may, if you ask privately different individuals on the investment committee their opinions about some of these things, they're undoubtedly would be different ideas or different nuances, but the overriding idea is still just to buy bargains throughout the world. So it happens that commercially our international fund serves a purpose by being concentrated in that. Now, I personally, I'm in the international fund. It's one of my largest mutual fund, Tweety Mutual Fund holdings, but I also own individual U.S. securities and a fairly large position in the Tweety Brown Value Fund, which is a global fund, but in the international fund, it's 90% non-US securities. I'm not sure whether that answers the question.

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  33. Looking for, but you probably get some growth in addition, growth in the value of the business. So on a total return basis, you do okay. But again, the most recent buys would be things that are typically quantitatively cheaper. In many instances recently, had this insider purchase signal, they're attractive to us.

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  34. Well, a number of them, a number of those stocks just are playing cheap on the statistics. And I mean, there's a company SKF in the ball bearings business that we bought some shares of and insiders have been buying it with their own money. And I don't know, stock's really cheap on the numbers. So it's just, again, it's the shopping aisle idea. And bargains, the typical bargain that we're buying new, fresh today rather than a company like Heineken or Diageo that we've been holding, but they're not, they're undervalued if somebody bought the company in an acquisition, but they're not super, super undervalued. And the owner earnings yield, if you own a stock at 20 times earnings and the company paid out 100% of the earnings, you get a 5% return. It's not your 10% return that you're

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  35. Well, I would say for us we look at it as a different way. My deceased partner, Chris Brown, used to say, well, we like to invest outside the United States because it just gives us a bigger shopping aisle of bargains. And from the standpoint of a U.S. investor in our international fund, Tweedy Brown International Fund, because we hedged the currency risk, a large part of the currency risk, not all of it, but a large part of it. We're equating a business in terms of the US return plus or minus the interest rate differential on the hedging instrument to a local U.S. return. So basically, it's just another place to find bargains, and we're finding quite a few there.

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  36. Well, I'd say that in terms of the track records, international investing has had periods in the past where it's performed better than the U.S. market. But you're absolutely right about the more recent past. Now, my partner, Bob Wyckoff, would be much more up to date on these different track record periods for international versus U.S. stocks. But clearly, there are a lot of cheap non-US stocks. And good prospects based on low valuations, low valuations have historically tended to predict higher returns.

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  37. Well, I think that the value strategy statistically is more likely to prove itself out and add value if you've got kind of a statistical diversification, a law of large numbers, a lot of different bets. So we've normally had fairly large number of bets. But sometimes we let a Heineken, we let these things roll along and they might become 4% or 5%. But we're comfortable with the business, we're comfortable having that kind of concentration in that sort of a business in a number of portfolios. We're fairly large bets in Berkshire Hathaway just because we've owned it for a long time and it's grown faster. It's compounded better than other stocks we've owned. But I think it's the statistical law of large numbers make the strategy work. And also it just seems less risky.

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  38. But I could be a lot richer if I had put everything into stocks. I've always had for a long time I've had probably too much cash, but I don't force it. I don't force it. If I can't find something I like, and I do have a diversification constraint, I will just have more cash.

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  39. Never thought of it that way. And I just think that having margin is a bad idea. And you want to stay in the game, you don't want to get tapped out. And so I think that the resilience, that not having debt makes one more at peace with reversals, with the down periods, with things that don't go well. And you want to be able to stay in the game because it's a long run game. It's a game of averages. And for me, it just made things less stressful. I knew that, well, my stock portfolio is way down, but I don't have any mortgage debt on the house. I'm living below my means. I'm not living paycheck to paycheck. I've got some reserves. I've got some cash. It just was for me a less stressful way to live and a less stressful way to live in the volatile field of investing where you do have ups and downs. You do have stocks that don't work out. You do have all these kinds of things. So for me, it's been good behaviorally.

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  40. His long run investment returns, which were phenomenal. And I had read an academic paper by these two finance professors, Miller and Modigliani. And they had this idea that if you bought shares of a company with low leverage, with, let's say, no debt on the balance sheet, that investors of their own accord would go out and offset that. They would borrow money that the company itself maybe should have had on its own balance sheet, but they would borrow money to own the stock. So it was kind of they would merge their capital structures, the capital structure of the owner, call it an individual, call it a holding company with the non-leveraged stock. So I thought, well, maybe Buffett was using this Miller Bodigliani idea and using a lot of leverage to buy into very low leverage bargain stocks. And so I wrote a letter and it was very nice to respond to me. He said, no, I've never.

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  41. To deal with Absolutely. Going back to the example of the tax loss carry forward company Paul Hardeman when I had tried to convince a friend of my father's, a very frugal man who was an investor in stocks and farmland and a little tiny apartment buildings and stuff. Mr. Clark wrote me a nice letter about not getting it over your head, not being too greedy, not being too self-confident. And he was absolutely right. That was, as I described before, kind of a cold shower, a shock to the system, a wake-up call. So there was that. And there was also a letter that I wrote just after I'd started my little investment partnership when I was driving in the airport limousine at night to support myself. I wrote a letter to Warren Buffett, and I'd read this great article in Forbes magazine about the Buffett Partnership and about it.

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  42. Well, it's relatively frugal. We used to buy only used cars, but it's frugal in terms of capacity, of spending capacity, of means. I've always lived below fairly well below my means

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  43. My wife got a Hyundai Santa Fe and I got more of a luxury car in that from Hyande that's called the Hyande Genesis, which for taking our daughters and for taking some friends out to dinner, they sit in the back seat. It's got more leg room. It's the South Korean equivalent. It's sort of the South Korean limousine car. It has a 100,000 mile warranty, I think, 10-year, it's got a great warranty and I've had, and I think JD Powers has said good things about the reliability of it.

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  44. Results, all those things. So we narrowed our list just to heavier cars, typically heavier cars, not Cooper Mini or something like that.

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  45. The Lincoln Town car was one of the first cars that had airbags. So it was kind of, I wasn't really interested in having a Lincoln because the Lincoln was sort of a showier kind of a car, but it did have that aspect. So I thought, what the heck? I'll be a little showy and maybe it'll save my life because it's got airbags. But absolutely. We just happened to have had two of our cars totaled because we're right on the beach in Naples and we have a big flood surge and our cars and other neighbors cars in our condominium association are parked underground. So we lost two cars and just had to buy two cars recently. They were both cars that met the insurance institute for highway safety designation top safety pick plus. This is the highest designation, the best crash test results, the best rollover.

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  46. That's my goal. Yeah. I mean, Ben Graham in security analysis had a sentence that an investment operation is one that offers safety of principle and the prospect of a satisfactory return. He didn't say a return that beats a market capweighted index such as the S&P 500. He was really looking at making money, doing things that would likely not lose money because they possessed a margin of safety. But that's not the commercial business of managing money in a way. It's really, it's consultants looking at how did you do the last three years versus a benchmark, the last five years, going back to inception, they don't necessarily look or pay much heed to that.

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  47. That certainly has been, obviously that's what we like to do. But can I guarantee that over the next five years, the S&P 500 will be worse than what we're doing? I can't guarantee that based on the history of winning periods and losing periods, I think it will, but you got to be realistic. You can't predict those things.

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  48. Well, I would say that I don't think it makes a lot of sense to leverage. I think you're more able to be at ease and stay in the game if you're not hacked up, if you're not leveraged.

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  49. the I guess the arc performance has not been the best yeah Kathy Woods done yeah yeah right right right indeed indeed you can lose a lot of money in these things that previously were so exciting to people

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  50. Well, that's right. And it depends on there are certainly periods of underperformance, but you're still making money. You're just not making as much as the other person, the other woman or man who bought the particular benchmark that's doing better. But we've also

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