YouSaid · the spoken record

Jonathan Ross

lines on the record: 100
first: 2025-09-29
most recent: 2025-09-29
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

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“Well, what was the famous prognostication 100 years ago that there was going to be massive famine because we weren't going to be able to feed ourselves? People always underestimate what's going to change in the economy when you improve technology.”
2025-09-29 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: OpenAI and Anthropic Will Build Their Own Chips | NVIDIA Will Be Worth $10TRN | How to Solve the Energy Required for AI... Nuclear | Why China is Behind the US in the Race for AGI with Jonathan Ross, Groq Founder · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“That to 2% of the population working in agriculture, we found things for those other 98% of the population to do. The jobs that are going to exist 100 years from now, we can't even contemplate. 100 years ago, the idea of a software developer made no sense. A hundred years from now, it's going to make no sense, but in a different way because everyone's going to be vibe coding. Influencers, that wouldn't have made sense 100 years ago. But now that's a real job. People make millions of dollars off of it. So number one, deflationary pressure. Number two, opting out of the workforce because of that deflationary pressure. And number three, jobs and companies that couldn't exist today that were going to exist and are going to need labor. We're not going to have enough people.”
2025-09-29 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: OpenAI and Anthropic Will Build Their Own Chips | NVIDIA Will Be Worth $10TRN | How to Solve the Energy Required for AI... Nuclear | Why China is Behind the US in the Race for AGI with Jonathan Ross, Groq Founder · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Because you're going to have robots that are going to be farming the coffee more efficiently. You're going to have better supply chain management. It's just going to be across the entire supply chain. You're going to be able to genetically engineer the coffee so that you get more of it per watt of sunlight just across the entire spectrum. So you're going to have massive deflationary pressure. That's number one. And what that means is people will need to work less. That's going to lead you to number two, which is people are going to opt out of the economy more. They're going to work fewer hours. They're going to work fewer days a week, and they're going to work fewer years. They're going to retire earlier because they're going to be able to support their lifestyle working less and then number three is we're going to create new jobs and new industries that don't exist today. Think about 100 years ago. 98% of the workforce in the United States was in agriculture. 2% did other things. When we were able to reduce”
2025-09-29 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: OpenAI and Anthropic Will Build Their Own Chips | NVIDIA Will Be Worth $10TRN | How to Solve the Energy Required for AI... Nuclear | Why China is Behind the US in the Race for AGI with Jonathan Ross, Groq Founder · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I believe that AI is going to cause massive labor shortages. I don't think we're going to have enough people to fill all the jobs that are going to be created. There's three things that are going to happen because of AI. The first is massive deflationary pressure. This cup of coffee is going to cost less. Your housing is going to cost less. Everything is going to cost less, which means people are going to need less money.”
2025-09-29 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: OpenAI and Anthropic Will Build Their Own Chips | NVIDIA Will Be Worth $10TRN | How to Solve the Energy Required for AI... Nuclear | Why China is Behind the US in the Race for AGI with Jonathan Ross, Groq Founder · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Going back to what I said about how every time you add more compute, a product gets better, there is no limit to the amount of compute that we can use. It's different from the Industrial Revolution. In the Industrial Revolution, you couldn't use energy unless you had the machinery to use it and you had to build machinery. And that took time. If I wanted to have more cars on the road, I had to build the cars. It wasn't enough to just pull more oil out of the ground. AI is not like that. Yes, if I make my model better, I can actually do more with the same amount of compute. But if I double my compute, I double the number of users, I improve the quality of the model. This is different. I can literally just add more compute to the economy and the economy gets stronger. We've never had that before where it wasn't a bottleneck. It was more of a rubber neck where you could just force more of one component through and then everything improves.”
2025-09-29 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: OpenAI and Anthropic Will Build Their Own Chips | NVIDIA Will Be Worth $10TRN | How to Solve the Energy Required for AI... Nuclear | Why China is Behind the US in the Race for AGI with Jonathan Ross, Groq Founder · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“We can just directly turn compute into more data. We're getting there. Compute is the easiest knob because it just keeps getting better and better and better every year. If I write a check for enough money and I'm willing to wait a little while, I'm going to get more compute. It's the most predictable part of the pipeline. And yet we still underestimate how much we need.”
2025-09-29 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: OpenAI and Anthropic Will Build Their Own Chips | NVIDIA Will Be Worth $10TRN | How to Solve the Energy Required for AI... Nuclear | Why China is Behind the US in the Race for AGI with Jonathan Ross, Groq Founder · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So, compute is holding it back for the quality of it, but more people would use it, they just wouldn't get as much out of it. But more people would use it if more languages were supported well. This is the number one complaint we hear around the world. You know what would solve that, more compute, more data. If you have more data, then you can train more, but you need more compute. And by the way, if you have more compute, you can generate more synthetic data so you can train more. So you have data, you have algorithms, and you have compute. If you improve any one of them, it's not a bottleneck. It's not like if the compute doesn't get better, I can't use more data. Or if the data doesn't get better, I can't use more compute. Any one of these that gets better improves AI. And that makes it really easy to improve AI because you can improve one dimension of it. It just turns out the easiest knob to improve an AI, it's not the algorithms. Algorithms rarely improve. It's not the data because it's really hard to get more data and we haven't fully figured out synthetic data generation. We're good at it, but we're not at the point yet.”
2025-09-29 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: OpenAI and Anthropic Will Build Their Own Chips | NVIDIA Will Be Worth $10TRN | How to Solve the Energy Required for AI... Nuclear | Why China is Behind the US in the Race for AGI with Jonathan Ross, Groq Founder · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“What I never expected was that AI was going to be based on language. What that's done is it's made it trivial to interact with AI. I thought it was going to be more like AlphaGo. I thought it was going to be intelligent in some weird esoteric way. The fact that it's language means anyone can use it. So I expected AI to come sooner and grow slower. It came later and it's growing faster than I ever imagined. It is so easy to interact with AI that anyone can do it.”
2025-09-29 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: OpenAI and Anthropic Will Build Their Own Chips | NVIDIA Will Be Worth $10TRN | How to Solve the Energy Required for AI... Nuclear | Why China is Behind the US in the Race for AGI with Jonathan Ross, Groq Founder · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“No, NVIDIA is going to sell every single GPU that they build. Even if we end up supplying 10 times as many LPUs as GPUs, all that's going to do is increase the demand for GPUs and allow them to charge an even higher margin. Because the more inference you have, as mentioned before, the more you need to train the model to optimize for the inference. And the more training you have, the more inference you want to deploy to amortize the cost of the training. There's a virtuous cycle between the two.”
2025-09-29 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: OpenAI and Anthropic Will Build Their Own Chips | NVIDIA Will Be Worth $10TRN | How to Solve the Energy Required for AI... Nuclear | Why China is Behind the US in the Race for AGI with Jonathan Ross, Groq Founder · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“You're solving for there is removing someone else's ability to control you. But what you're not solving for is having enough of it. By the way, I'm not saying don't use Mistral. We have a partnership with Mistral. We love Mistral. The thing I'm saying is build enough compute so that Mistral can compete.”
2025-09-29 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: OpenAI and Anthropic Will Build Their Own Chips | NVIDIA Will Be Worth $10TRN | How to Solve the Energy Required for AI... Nuclear | Why China is Behind the US in the Race for AGI with Jonathan Ross, Groq Founder · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Because if you don't have compute, you can't run the AI. Doesn't matter how good your model is, you could have a model that is 10 times smarter than OpenAI's model. And if you have 10 times the compute, OpenAI's model is going to be better.”
2025-09-29 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: OpenAI and Anthropic Will Build Their Own Chips | NVIDIA Will Be Worth $10TRN | How to Solve the Energy Required for AI... Nuclear | Why China is Behind the US in the Race for AGI with Jonathan Ross, Groq Founder · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Then Europe's economy is going to be a tourist economy. People are going to come here to see the quaint old buildings, and that's going to be it. You cannot compete in a new economy if you don't have the resources.”
2025-09-29 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: OpenAI and Anthropic Will Build Their Own Chips | NVIDIA Will Be Worth $10TRN | How to Solve the Energy Required for AI... Nuclear | Why China is Behind the US in the Race for AGI with Jonathan Ross, Groq Founder · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I don't think there's a problem right now if Europe acts now. I mean, China is ahead in action, but there are 500 million people in Europe. There's over 300 million in the US. And if you start bringing all the allies together, South Korea, who, by the way, knows how to build nuclear power plants. The power plant in the UAE was built by South Korea. They could build power plants here. France knows how to build power plants. How about a little bit of a Manhattan project for building enough energy? When I'm walking around in Europe in the summer, it's incredibly hot. And when I'm walking around in the winter, it's incredibly cold. That is not an experience you have anywhere else in the world. Build more energy.”
2025-09-29 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: OpenAI and Anthropic Will Build Their Own Chips | NVIDIA Will Be Worth $10TRN | How to Solve the Energy Required for AI... Nuclear | Why China is Behind the US in the Race for AGI with Jonathan Ross, Groq Founder · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“The complaint that the hyperscalers have is all of the paperwork and the slowness. I was talking to someone who was on the board of a major energy company that builds nuclear power plants. He said they spend three times as much on the permitting in the United States than on the nuclear power plant. And I don't know about Europe, but typically the United States is better than Europe on this. How much does it cost to build a nuclear power plant in Europe? The actual cost of the infrastructure versus the permitting. Here's what everyone needs to walk away from this with. The countries that control compute will control AI. And you cannot have compute without energy.”
2025-09-29 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: OpenAI and Anthropic Will Build Their Own Chips | NVIDIA Will Be Worth $10TRN | How to Solve the Energy Required for AI... Nuclear | Why China is Behind the US in the Race for AGI with Jonathan Ross, Groq Founder · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Does the Norwegian government need to pay for it How about the hyperscalers? How about other governments that want to locate there? In Saudi Arabia, there are gigawatts of power, and they're building out data centers for that. Why doesn't Europe work with Saudi Arabia to say, you know what? So Saudi Arabia wants to do a program of data embassies where you have sovereign oversight over your data, but you get to use their energy. Why not use that? Problem solved. They're going to build out three to four gigawatts in the very near future”
2025-09-29 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: OpenAI and Anthropic Will Build Their Own Chips | NVIDIA Will Be Worth $10TRN | How to Solve the Energy Required for AI... Nuclear | Why China is Behind the US in the Race for AGI with Jonathan Ross, Groq Founder · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I don't bring up nuclear because I'm not going to push an energy source that everyone's going to push back on. But when I was in Japan recently, they were talking about bringing their nuclear reactors back online. Japan has a reputation of being very slow. There's a lack of subtlety and nuance in that perception. The reality is Japan is slow to make a decision. But when they decide something, they move really fast. Let's take an example. Japan decided to build a two nanometer fab. When I was there last, they were showing off these two nanometer wafers that they produced. Now, the yield's not where it needs to be. This is not production grade, but they built a two nanometer fab and they are producing wafers out of it. And they're going to start getting that defect density down. They're going to move quickly. They've allocated $65 billion for AI. And they're going to spend it and they're going to spend it quick. They're going to turn their nuclear reactors back on. When Japan is going to turn their nuclear reactors back on, Europe needs to listen to that and go, gosh, we need to catch up in energy.”
2025-09-29 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: OpenAI and Anthropic Will Build Their Own Chips | NVIDIA Will Be Worth $10TRN | How to Solve the Energy Required for AI... Nuclear | Why China is Behind the US in the Race for AGI with Jonathan Ross, Groq Founder · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Incredibly willing to embrace the risk of omission. The way that Europe is trying to compete is through legislation by saying things like, I want to keep this data in Europe, or I want to keep this data in this country. If Europe wanted to compete in AI, all you need to do is say Norway, please deploy an enormous number of wind turbines. Why? Norway has about an 80% utilization rate of wind. So like 80% of the time you can be generating energy. They have enough hydro that if you deployed 5x the wind power of the hydro, Norway itself could provide as much energy as the United States and could do it consistently. The entire United States. That's one country in Europe. How much other energy is there out there that could be unlocked, that isn't nuclear? And by the way, let's also deploy nuclear. Nuclear is incredibly safe these days.”
2025-09-29 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: OpenAI and Anthropic Will Build Their Own Chips | NVIDIA Will Be Worth $10TRN | How to Solve the Energy Required for AI... Nuclear | Why China is Behind the US in the Race for AGI with Jonathan Ross, Groq Founder · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Now, nuclear is efficient and cost effective, but renewables are efficient, cost-effective. I'll give you my simple hack. All the allies in the United States have to do in order to have more energy than China is to be willing to locate their compute where energy is cheap. Let's compare Europe to the United States. The United States is incredibly risk averse compared to Europe in everything. But you have to ask what kind of risk. There's two kinds of risk. There's mistakes of commission where you do something that's a mistake, and then there's mistakes of omission, where you don't do something and it's a mistake. And the United States is terrified of making mistakes of omission. When you are in a massive growth economy, missing out is more expensive than fumbling something. Europe is”
2025-09-29 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: OpenAI and Anthropic Will Build Their Own Chips | NVIDIA Will Be Worth $10TRN | How to Solve the Energy Required for AI... Nuclear | Why China is Behind the US in the Race for AGI with Jonathan Ross, Groq Founder · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Now, of course, when someone has a low cost application and they can't afford the premium for OpenAI, they want to use one of these open source models, eventually they start doing really well, they make more money, they start wanting to get access to the premium model, their prompts are reusable. So there's a win by open sourcing these models. And you're also getting all of these infrastructure providers to drive the cost down on that model as well. There's a lot of innovation that goes into that.”
2025-09-29 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: OpenAI and Anthropic Will Build Their Own Chips | NVIDIA Will Be Worth $10TRN | How to Solve the Energy Required for AI... Nuclear | Why China is Behind the US in the Race for AGI with Jonathan Ross, Groq Founder · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“The model itself is not a clear advantage. So the first time you had me on your podcast, I predicted that OpenAI was about to open source their model. Remember that? And my prediction was based on their branding strength. Frankly, OpenAI could probably use Lama 2, the old model from how long ago, like two years ago. Yeah. And people would probably still use it. And so there's a brand advantage there. Now, they do have very good models, but they don't necessarily need it because of that brand advantage. I think that anthropic should be open sourcing their previous generation in order to get people using them instead of the Chinese models. Because if someone is willing to use a Chinese model, then they would at least be using the anthropic model and their prompts would be recyclable. And just like you have software compatibility, you have prompt compatibility. For example, when the OpenAI OSS model was released, one of the main reasons people started adopting it over the Chinese models was they could reuse their prompts.”
2025-09-29 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: OpenAI and Anthropic Will Build Their Own Chips | NVIDIA Will Be Worth $10TRN | How to Solve the Energy Required for AI... Nuclear | Why China is Behind the US in the Race for AGI with Jonathan Ross, Groq Founder · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So, does There's a home game and there's an away game. The home game is we want to build enough compute for the United States. The away game is we want to build it for our allies, right? Europe, South Korea, Japan, India, and so on. China can win their own home game. They're going to build 150 nuclear reactors, so they're going to have enough energy, even though their chips aren't as energy efficient. And they can subsidize, as you mentioned. But the away game is different. If a country only has a hundred megawatts of power, what are they going to do? Build another nuclear power plant? Like, that's just not a realistic thing. You can do that in China. You can't do that elsewhere. So having a better chip gives you an advantage in the away game. So my expectation is that right now for the next two to three years, the United States has”
2025-09-29 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: OpenAI and Anthropic Will Build Their Own Chips | NVIDIA Will Be Worth $10TRN | How to Solve the Energy Required for AI... Nuclear | Why China is Behind the US in the Race for AGI with Jonathan Ross, Groq Founder · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“10 times as much. The price was higher, and people were confusing the cost with the price. The Chinese models were optimized to be cheaper to train, as opposed to be cheaper to run. When you see how much intelligence has been squeezed into the OSS model versus the equivalent Chinese models, it's clear that the US still has a training advantage. And the economics workout such that you have to amortize that training over every inference, which means that you want to charge more. And so there's still a balance there, but as you scale out into larger and larger numbers of people, being able to afford to train a model starts to be a payoff. As you deploy more inference capacity, you want to spend a bit more on the training to get your inference cost down. In the US, we have a massive compute advantage. And so people train the models harder, bringing the cost down.”
2025-09-29 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: OpenAI and Anthropic Will Build Their Own Chips | NVIDIA Will Be Worth $10TRN | How to Solve the Energy Required for AI... Nuclear | Why China is Behind the US in the Race for AGI with Jonathan Ross, Groq Founder · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“When the Chinese models came out, everyone reacted by saying, Oh my God, they've trained models that are almost as good as the US models. And we had a podcast on this, right? Even I was snookkered a little bit at first. Oh my gosh, aren't these models so much cheaper to run? Now that I know more about the foundation models that people are using versus the Chinese models, no, they're not cheaper to run. They're about 10x as expensive. Actually, let's just take the GPT OSS model that was released. It's optimized for something different than the Chinese models, but the quality is very high. And I would argue clearly is a better model for what it focuses on than the Chinese models. Now, the Chinese models focus on different things. However, the cost to run the OSS model is about one-tenth that of the Chinese models. So why was everyone charging less when you have sort of a captive market for a model? Because people say, I want this model. And there's only one provider of it. You can charge.”
2025-09-29 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: OpenAI and Anthropic Will Build Their Own Chips | NVIDIA Will Be Worth $10TRN | How to Solve the Energy Required for AI... Nuclear | Why China is Behind the US in the Race for AGI with Jonathan Ross, Groq Founder · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“No, and you have to think of the different outcomes that they're looking for. So if you are OpenAI, you have moved into markets that are incredibly cost sensitive. Let's talk about India for a second. If you want to go in India, what's the one thing you need 99 rupees a month. That's about $1.13. You need to charge your customer $1.13 for your product. So they're going after a market whose alternative is I have no AI.”
2025-09-29 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: OpenAI and Anthropic Will Build Their Own Chips | NVIDIA Will Be Worth $10TRN | How to Solve the Energy Required for AI... Nuclear | Why China is Behind the US in the Race for AGI with Jonathan Ross, Groq Founder · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I can actually spend more to make my product better on each query. I can even decide this customer is more valuable and I'm going to give them a better result. That's kind of what OpenAI announced when they said we're now going to release some products where we can't really afford the compute, so we're going to give it to a limited set of users and we're going to charge more because we want to see what happens when we give more compute to the AI. We want to see what that product looks like and how much better it is. That is going to be our future. Every time you give more compute to an application, the quality increases. And this is why it's not coincidental that you see people's token as a service bill almost matching their revenue. Because they're competing for customers and if they just spend more, their product gets better.”
2025-09-29 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: OpenAI and Anthropic Will Build Their Own Chips | NVIDIA Will Be Worth $10TRN | How to Solve the Energy Required for AI... Nuclear | Why China is Behind the US in the Race for AGI with Jonathan Ross, Groq Founder · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So we started off talking about AI a bubble. If you look for the last 10 years, infrastructure for data centers, you're planning that out two, three, four, five years in advance, right? What happens is everyone's predictions are wrong. They end up building too little. This has just been what's happened for the last 10 years. So you don't build enough for 10 years. What do you do? You try and overbuild. You try and build more than your most optimistic projections. And then once again, you haven't built enough. So you increase your projections and you just keep doing this. That's what's been happening. And yet people still aren't building enough compute. Where people's instincts are off, AI doesn't work the way SaaS does. In SaaS, you have a bunch of engineers who go out and build a product. And the quality of that product is determined based on what those engineers did. That's not the case in AI. In AI, I can improve the quality of my product by running two instances of the prompt and then picking the better answer.”
2025-09-29 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: OpenAI and Anthropic Will Build Their Own Chips | NVIDIA Will Be Worth $10TRN | How to Solve the Energy Required for AI... Nuclear | Why China is Behind the US in the Race for AGI with Jonathan Ross, Groq Founder · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So, do you know Sarah Hooker? So she wrote this paper The Hardware Lottery. My TLDR on that one is people are designing the models for the hardware. There are architectures that could be better than attention. However, attention works really well on GPUs. So if you are the incumbent, you have an advantage because people are designing their models for your hardware. It doesn't even matter if there's a better architecture out there. It's not going to run well, so it's not a better architecture. There's a little bit of a loop there. If you are building two years out and you're the incumbent, that's okay. But if you're trying to enter the market, no one's going to design for your chips two years out. So you have to have a faster loop.”
2025-09-29 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: OpenAI and Anthropic Will Build Their Own Chips | NVIDIA Will Be Worth $10TRN | How to Solve the Energy Required for AI... Nuclear | Why China is Behind the US in the Race for AGI with Jonathan Ross, Groq Founder · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“That's right. So I had a meeting with the head of infrastructure, one of the hyperscalers, and I talked about speed. I talked about cost and all this stuff. But when I talked about the supply chain and how we could do something in six months, he just stopped the conversation for a moment and wanted to dig into that. That was the only thing he cared about.”
2025-09-29 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: OpenAI and Anthropic Will Build Their Own Chips | NVIDIA Will Be Worth $10TRN | How to Solve the Energy Required for AI... Nuclear | Why China is Behind the US in the Race for AGI with Jonathan Ross, Groq Founder · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yes, but also here's another crazy part which is when you look at the math this way, like if I'm approaching it as an accountant, I'm going to be like, this is a terrible idea. But if I look at it empirically, people are still renting H100s. How old are those chips? They're getting close to five years old. They're still earning more than their operating costs by quite a bit. You would never deploy an H100 today, but they're still profitable to run. They're in that second phase. The reason is people can't get enough compute. If that wasn't the case, H100s would be renting for a fraction of what they're renting for today. And as long as you can't get enough compute, that's going to be true. The question is, is there an alternative out there that isn't as supply constrained? And so this is where we're hoping to come in. Let's talk about our value proposition. So you started off asking me about speed. Do you know how many customers come to us asking for speed? 100%. Do you know how many customers keep asking about that once they realize?”
2025-09-29 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: OpenAI and Anthropic Will Build Their Own Chips | NVIDIA Will Be Worth $10TRN | How to Solve the Energy Required for AI... Nuclear | Why China is Behind the US in the Race for AGI with Jonathan Ross, Groq Founder · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I can't tell you what happens because we're trying to avoid that situation. So by having a much faster payback period in all of our calculations, I would not want to make a bet that long out. The shorter the timeframe that you're making the bet, the clearer your outcome is.”
2025-09-29 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: OpenAI and Anthropic Will Build Their Own Chips | NVIDIA Will Be Worth $10TRN | How to Solve the Energy Required for AI... Nuclear | Why China is Behind the US in the Race for AGI with Jonathan Ross, Groq Founder · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Because a lot of these people have entered into really long contracts, and so they have a third point where they have to consider their calculation, which is breaking this contract is that cheaper than running the chip at a loss.”
2025-09-29 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: OpenAI and Anthropic Will Build Their Own Chips | NVIDIA Will Be Worth $10TRN | How to Solve the Energy Required for AI... Nuclear | Why China is Behind the US in the Race for AGI with Jonathan Ross, Groq Founder · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“A little bit less. We're looking at upgrading chips about once a year now. Here's the way to think about it. There's two phases of the value of a chip. There's the am I willing to buy it and deploy it? And there's am I willing to keep it running? There are two very different calculations. When you deploy it, you have to be able to cover the CapEx. When you keep it running, you just have to beat the OpEx. So if I deploy a chip today, I have to beat the Capex. I have to earn all my Capex back and make a profit and produce a return. Once I've deployed it, as long as I'm beating my operational costs, I'm going to keep that thing in production. So you're okay with the value of that chip going down over time. Now, the bet that everyone is making is that those new chips that come out aren't going to reduce the value of the old chips below the OpEx. And in our case, we actually don't think that five years makes any sense.”
2025-09-29 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: OpenAI and Anthropic Will Build Their Own Chips | NVIDIA Will Be Worth $10TRN | How to Solve the Energy Required for AI... Nuclear | Why China is Behind the US in the Race for AGI with Jonathan Ross, Groq Founder · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“People are definitely thinking about it over a longer period than I would. We use a more conservative number internally. I think five to six years”
2025-09-29 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: OpenAI and Anthropic Will Build Their Own Chips | NVIDIA Will Be Worth $10TRN | How to Solve the Energy Required for AI... Nuclear | Why China is Behind the US in the Race for AGI with Jonathan Ross, Groq Founder · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“No, so buying a system is expensive. Buying a data center is more expensive. The reason is you're amortizing that data center over a longer period of time. So even if a data center was going to be one-third of your cost per year, if you're amortizing that data center over 10 years and the chip's over three to five years, the data center is going to end up costing you more per year. When you hear the hyperscalers talking about that 75 billion to $100 billion a year investment, because they're building out the capacity for data centers, they're putting a lot of money up for returns that they're expecting over the next 10 plus years. So it's actually not that much money when you think about it.”
2025-09-29 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: OpenAI and Anthropic Will Build Their Own Chips | NVIDIA Will Be Worth $10TRN | How to Solve the Energy Required for AI... Nuclear | Why China is Behind the US in the Race for AGI with Jonathan Ross, Groq Founder · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It's very hard. However, there is an incentive from those building HBM to spread that around because NVIDIA gets to negotiate very good rates because there's such a large buyer. However, if you're building an HBM fab and packaging house and all of this other part of the ecosystem, NVIDIA comes and writes a big check, then you're going to build a fab for them. So NVIDIA is always going to get the amount of supply that they want in advance. The problem is you have to write that check more than two years in advance. Where AI's gone just absolutely hockey sticking, even when you have the cash flow of NVIDIA, it's hard to actually write the checks for the amount of demand that there's going to be in advance. There is going to be a supply constraint, and it's not purely based on being a monopsony. Part of it is based on just the sheer capital cost. And the memory suppliers are very conservative. There's also this situation where the margin”
2025-09-29 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: OpenAI and Anthropic Will Build Their Own Chips | NVIDIA Will Be Worth $10TRN | How to Solve the Energy Required for AI... Nuclear | Why China is Behind the US in the Race for AGI with Jonathan Ross, Groq Founder · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“NVIDIA can't tell you what your GPU allocation is. It may cost you more to deploy your own chip because it's not going to be quite as good as NVIDIA's. Let's think about why NVIDIA's GPUs with a slight edge over AMD's GPUs dominate. If your total cost to deploy is a huge multiple of the cost of the chips in the systems, then a small percentage increase in the cost of the chip is negligible. If I'm going to deploy a CPU and that CPU is 20% of the bomb, and I get a 20% increase in the speed of the chip. That is a 20% value increase in the entire system versus a 20% increase in the chip cost rates negligible. So you get these huge multiples when you improve the chip performance. So small differences in performance make a huge difference in the value of the product. A small edge gives you a massive edge in selling that product.”
2025-09-29 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: OpenAI and Anthropic Will Build Their Own Chips | NVIDIA Will Be Worth $10TRN | How to Solve the Energy Required for AI... Nuclear | Why China is Behind the US in the Race for AGI with Jonathan Ross, Groq Founder · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I think one of the problems in building your own chip, first of all, everyone thinks that building the chip is the hard part. And then as you do it, you start to realize building the software is the hard part. And then as you do it, you realize keeping up with where everything is going starts to become the hard part. I have no doubt OpenAI will be able to build its own chips. I have no doubt that eventually Anthropic will be building their own chips, that every hyperscaler will build their own chip. I had this experience when I was at Google where I got a lab tour. And this was before AMD was doing a great job, right? AMD was struggling for a little while and now they're doing great. But they had built 10,000 servers. And those 10,000 servers of AMD chips, I was walking through the lab and they were pulling the servers out of the”
2025-09-29 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: OpenAI and Anthropic Will Build Their Own Chips | NVIDIA Will Be Worth $10TRN | How to Solve the Energy Required for AI... Nuclear | Why China is Behind the US in the Race for AGI with Jonathan Ross, Groq Founder · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“100% wrong. In fact, when we first started working on getting speed on our chips, we knew what speed we could get. We even made a video example of how fast we could be. And people would look at that video example and they would say, why does it need to be faster than you can read? And I would respond to that by saying, well, why does a web page need to load faster than you can read? And there was just this mental disconnect where people couldn't grock the sort of visceral importance of speed. People are very bad at determining what's actually going to matter in terms of engagement, in terms of outcome. But we know this from building the early internet companies.”
2025-09-29 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: OpenAI and Anthropic Will Build Their Own Chips | NVIDIA Will Be Worth $10TRN | How to Solve the Energy Required for AI... Nuclear | Why China is Behind the US in the Race for AGI with Jonathan Ross, Groq Founder · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Let's look at CPG. So, consumer packaging goods. I want you to rank the CPG goods by margin. At the very top, tobacco, smoking tobacco, right? Below that is chewing tobacco. Below that is softer drinks. Below that you keep going down. You get to water and other things like that. What is the number one thing that a high margin correlates to in CPG? It's the speed at which the ingredient acts on you. That dopamine cycle, how quickly something occurs, determines your brand affinity. When something has a very quick response, you associate to that brand and then you accrue brand value. This was the entire basis of Google focusing on speed, Facebook focusing on speed. Every 100 milliseconds of speed up results in about an 8% conversion rate.”
2025-09-29 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: OpenAI and Anthropic Will Build Their Own Chips | NVIDIA Will Be Worth $10TRN | How to Solve the Energy Required for AI... Nuclear | Why China is Behind the US in the Race for AGI with Jonathan Ross, Groq Founder · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Right now, one of the biggest complaints of anthropic is the rate limits. People can't get enough tokens from them. And if they had more compute, they could produce more tokens and they could charge more money. And with OpenAI, it's a chat service. So how do you regulate your chat service? You run it slower. You get less engagement.”
2025-09-29 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: OpenAI and Anthropic Will Build Their Own Chips | NVIDIA Will Be Worth $10TRN | How to Solve the Energy Required for AI... Nuclear | Why China is Behind the US in the Race for AGI with Jonathan Ross, Groq Founder · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Let's analyze it in a couple of different ways. From an economic point of view, it makes perfect sense. Why not do that all day long? The value accrues if there is lock-in. When revenue increases result in stock price increases that are greater than the amount of the revenue, it's because you believe that that revenue is going to continue. And that's the belief. And I would actually say with NVIDIA, that's probably true. However, it's not just because NVIDIA is good. And NVIDIA is very good. It's also because there isn't enough compute in the world. The demand for compute is insatiable. I would wager that if OpenAI were given twice the inference compute that they have today, if Anthropic was given twice the inference compute that they have today, that within one month from now their revenue would almost double.”
2025-09-29 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: OpenAI and Anthropic Will Build Their Own Chips | NVIDIA Will Be Worth $10TRN | How to Solve the Energy Required for AI... Nuclear | Why China is Behind the US in the Race for AGI with Jonathan Ross, Groq Founder · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Would be the case if they weren't spending it with suppliers to build those chips. It's not round tripping if actual productive outcomes are occurring. What percentage of the spend is going to building that infrastructure? 40%? So at least 40% of those dollars are actually going out into the ecosystem. So that is not an infinite loop.”
2025-09-29 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: OpenAI and Anthropic Will Build Their Own Chips | NVIDIA Will Be Worth $10TRN | How to Solve the Energy Required for AI... Nuclear | Why China is Behind the US in the Race for AGI with Jonathan Ross, Groq Founder · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I don't think you're going to see too many successfully moving into the chip layer. People look at the TPU as a big success. And what they don't realize is that there were about three chip efforts at Google at the same time, and only one of them ended up outperforming GPUs. When you look around the industry, you've got a bunch of people building chips, some of them are getting canceled, like Dojo recently got canceled. Building chips is hard. Going off and saying, I'm going to build my own AI chip to compete with NVIDIA. It's a little bit like saying, you know, that Google search is pretty nice. Let's go replicate it. It's insane. The level of optimization, the level of design and engineering that goes into that, you're not going to be able to replicate it with a high probability of success. However, if there's a bunch of players out there trying to do it and you have optionality and one of them succeeds, then you have another chip.”
2025-09-29 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: OpenAI and Anthropic Will Build Their Own Chips | NVIDIA Will Be Worth $10TRN | How to Solve the Energy Required for AI... Nuclear | Why China is Behind the US in the Race for AGI with Jonathan Ross, Groq Founder · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It that fast, you spend less to get the feature into production. That's real ROI. However, qualitatively, when you can do that before the customer meeting is over, you're going to be able to win deals that your competitors won't.”
2025-09-29 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: OpenAI and Anthropic Will Build Their Own Chips | NVIDIA Will Be Worth $10TRN | How to Solve the Energy Required for AI... Nuclear | Why China is Behind the US in the Race for AGI with Jonathan Ross, Groq Founder · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“That's correct, but right now AI is returning massive value already. It's very lumpy in the applications, but it's returning massive amounts of value. Let me talk about an example that actually happened for us. I've tried a little bit of vibe coding. I'm not the best in the world at it. We've got some interns who are amazing at it. We had this customer visit us, and I had a meeting with them. They asked for a feature and I speced it out, very high level Vibe. So I was prompt engineering the engineers. And four hours later it was in production. Not a single line of code was written by a human being. There was no debugging done by human being. It was all prompting. I think we even have Slack integration now where you commit things through Slack. So all that was done four hours later, it's in production. Think about the value there. But now fast forward six months from now when that could happen before the customer meeting's over. It's a qualitative difference. It's not even just a dollar amount difference. Yes, you know, when you're able to do”
2025-09-29 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: OpenAI and Anthropic Will Build Their Own Chips | NVIDIA Will Be Worth $10TRN | How to Solve the Energy Required for AI... Nuclear | Why China is Behind the US in the Race for AGI with Jonathan Ross, Groq Founder · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Okay. You're thinking of it purely financially, and I think that the financial returns will be positive. But that's not why people are motivated. So I was in Abu Dhabi at the inaugural Goldman Sachs Abu Dhabi event. As you now know, we're sponsoring McLaren. And so Zach Brown was talking, I was talking, and it was a fun event. But I was asked a similar question. Is AI a bubble? And I asked the following question. So this is like a bunch of people who manage 10 billion plus in AUM. Like 50 plus people who manage 10 billion plus. I'm like,”
2025-09-29 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: OpenAI and Anthropic Will Build Their Own Chips | NVIDIA Will Be Worth $10TRN | How to Solve the Energy Required for AI... Nuclear | Why China is Behind the US in the Race for AGI with Jonathan Ross, Groq Founder · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“As an aggregate, plenty of people are going to lose their shirts, but overall, less money is going to go in than is going to come out.”
2025-09-29 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: OpenAI and Anthropic Will Build Their Own Chips | NVIDIA Will Be Worth $10TRN | How to Solve the Energy Required for AI... Nuclear | Why China is Behind the US in the Race for AGI with Jonathan Ross, Groq Founder · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, and maybe NVIDIA represents 98% of that. But when it's that lumpy, what that's an indication of is it's like the early days of the oil drilling where people didn't know how to find oil. They were going off of instinct, you know, almost vibe investing. And people who had a good instinct would make a fortune and everyone else would lose their shirts. Over time, it becomes a science. It becomes very predictable. And there's less lumpiness. There's more predictability. But the good investors make less money. So right now is the best time for investors. Right now, people are making more money than they're spending. It's just very lumpy.”
2025-09-29 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: OpenAI and Anthropic Will Build Their Own Chips | NVIDIA Will Be Worth $10TRN | How to Solve the Energy Required for AI... Nuclear | Why China is Behind the US in the Race for AGI with Jonathan Ross, Groq Founder · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“You're asking is there a bubble? In terms of whether or not there's a bubble, my answer is if you ask a question, you keep not getting an answer, maybe you should ask a different question. And so instead of asking, is there a bubble, you should ask, what is the smart money doing? So what is Google doing? What is Microsoft doing? Amazon, what are some nations doing? And they're all doubling down on AI. They're spending more. Every time they make an announcement on how much they're spending, it goes up the next time. One of the best examples of the value that's coming from the spend, Microsoft in one quarter deployed a bunch of GPUs and then announced that they weren't going to make them available in Azure because they made more money using them themselves than renting them out. So there's real money in the market. And the best way that I think to explain this market is like the early days of oil drilling, a lot of dry holes and a couple of gushers. I think the stat that I heard was 35 companies or 36 companies are responsible for 99% of the revenue or at least the token.”
2025-09-29 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: OpenAI and Anthropic Will Build Their Own Chips | NVIDIA Will Be Worth $10TRN | How to Solve the Energy Required for AI... Nuclear | Why China is Behind the US in the Race for AGI with Jonathan Ross, Groq Founder · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“The countries that control compute will control AI, and you cannot have compute without energy. And now we're going to be able to add more labor to the economy by producing more compute and better AI. That has never happened in the history of the economy before. What is that going to do? I personally would be surprised if in five years NVIDIA wasn't worth $10 trillion, the demand for compute is insatiable. If OpenAI were given twice the inference compute that they have today, if Anthropic was given twice the inference compute that they have today, within one month from now, their revenue would almost double.”
2025-09-29 · The Twenty Minute VC · 20VC: OpenAI and Anthropic Will Build Their Own Chips | NVIDIA Will Be Worth $10TRN | How to Solve the Energy Required for AI... Nuclear | Why China is Behind the US in the Race for AGI with Jonathan Ross, Groq Founder · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source