YouSaid · the spoken record

Jonathan Treussard

lines on the record: 87
first: 2024-04-08
most recent: 2024-04-08
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

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“Last year. And so that just goes to show that valuation and theoretical frameworks for valuing equities such as, oh, when interest rates go up, the discounted cash flows in the future are worth less. They're nice theories, but they often do not work in practice, particularly for short-term trading and evaluation. To tell us about the new Cold War that you see and how is that going to impact the investment landscape? In other words, after the Berlin Wall fell down and we had sort of that peace dividend, what is different about the future that you see in the investment world that wasn't true after the Soviet Union collapsed and we had the appearance of global peace everywhere at least?”
2024-04-08 · Forward Guidance · The Anatomy Of Bubbles | Jonathan Treussard on Private Credit, Nvidia, and Dangers of “Engineered Yield” · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“As far as the rest of the world of the investment opportunity set is concerned, it's hard to turn up your nose when treasuries are yielding 5%. There's a reason last year was the year of T-bill and chill and some people that”
2024-04-08 · Forward Guidance · The Anatomy Of Bubbles | Jonathan Treussard on Private Credit, Nvidia, and Dangers of “Engineered Yield” · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Currencies tend to be mean reverting, buying relatively inexpensive stocks in a relatively inexpensive currency is kind of worth a look. But again, and this is where you really have to recognize particularly what I do, which is wealth management, which is helping people be in portfolios that one are relevant to their goals and two, that don't exceed their comfort because there is no better way to fail than to be beyond your point of comfort and then something bad happens because something bad always happens. And then you're like, I didn't sign up for this. And so my point to you in giving you this description is if you're comfortable looking outside of the US, There are reasons to do so, but that's within your comfort zone.”
2024-04-08 · Forward Guidance · The Anatomy Of Bubbles | Jonathan Treussard on Private Credit, Nvidia, and Dangers of “Engineered Yield” · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Equities might be worth it just as a comparison to US equities. Another one which I think is a little bit more straightforward, but still is Japan when you look at Japanese equities, you realize fairly quickly that really these are global multinationals that happen to be denominated and headquartered in a country with a very cheap currency right now. Now we all know that it could get cheaper. In fact, the Bank of Japan is very aware of that as well. But in a world where things like friend shoring is going on, in a world where unlike most other financial variables,”
2024-04-08 · Forward Guidance · The Anatomy Of Bubbles | Jonathan Treussard on Private Credit, Nvidia, and Dangers of “Engineered Yield” · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Very clear that you look at Europe and one valuations are lower. And two is it's not surprising why. And this is where I share a lot of the same DNA and pedigree and energy as some of my former colleagues, including, I know you recently interviewed Jason Sue from, you know, we were at research affiliates at the same time. When people are fearful, That's usually a pretty good time to lean into certain exposures. And it's pretty clear that Europe has been in a bad spot for the last two plus years now, as there is a very real, very scary war going on next door, which one is real and scary and two has impacted the European economy, particularly the German economy. That explains why, you know, looking at European”
2024-04-08 · Forward Guidance · The Anatomy Of Bubbles | Jonathan Treussard on Private Credit, Nvidia, and Dangers of “Engineered Yield” · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Right, agreed, and again, the point is there is no disagreement here between the two of us, which is why one I explicitly said I don't think the US market isn't quote unquote in a bubble. And two, I described it as earnings going hyperbolic. And that's actually happened with NVIDIA. So no disagreement there. However, and again, this is worth noting, the historical data tell you that from now at this point evaluations, It's just hard to see barring more of the same going forward, just extraordinary, outsized equity returns based on these current valuations. That's it. Now, you were asking about a couple of other markets.”
2024-04-08 · Forward Guidance · The Anatomy Of Bubbles | Jonathan Treussard on Private Credit, Nvidia, and Dangers of “Engineered Yield” · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Selling a dollar for $1.10 and doing marketing and that kind of stuff. And yes, NVIDIA and other high quality stocks in the magnificent seven went up a lot in 2020, 212. But what really led that market higher were the low quality speculative stocks. And so with the benefit of hindsight, I would say that late 2021 was a bubble that does not compare to 1929 or anything like that. But it definitely, I would say it was a bubble because you had extreme speculation in low quality stocks. Whereas now it seems, and I wonder if you agree with this, that the shares that are going up the most are justified by fundamentals if you look at NVIDIA, for example.”
2024-04-08 · Forward Guidance · The Anatomy Of Bubbles | Jonathan Treussard on Private Credit, Nvidia, and Dangers of “Engineered Yield” · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Can look at a oh my god, it's trading at 75 times earnings, but that's looking backward. If you just multiply like what it earned in the most recent quarter and then multiply that by four. So assuming pretty much no growth, it's forward PE is something like 40. So it's by no means cheap, of course, but is nowhere near as expensive or bubblicious as all the Navidia bears have been saying up until this entire point. It actually got cheaper in last year once the stock price started going crazy and people initially started calling it a bubble, its earnings were going up so much more that its stock price that it actually was cheaper. So I would say, you know, this is something that you referenced is that in the late 2020 and 2021, the stocks that were going up the most had no earnings. They were mostly unprofitable and they had severely flawed business models. And if they perhaps they had extraordinary growth, but it was by basically”
2024-04-08 · Forward Guidance · The Anatomy Of Bubbles | Jonathan Treussard on Private Credit, Nvidia, and Dangers of “Engineered Yield” · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“AI CapEx takes a back seat for a period of time. Reveal because, again, I don't know if it's a revolution yet. It's just a thing that people weren't thinking about 18 months ago, and they're now thinking about it all day long. And I think it's helpful to think about that as a really exciting thing happening under the best of circumstances. And if those circumstances change, the excitement might be affected.”
2024-04-08 · Forward Guidance · The Anatomy Of Bubbles | Jonathan Treussard on Private Credit, Nvidia, and Dangers of “Engineered Yield” · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Are just kind of holding their breath for what regulation is going to look like and what it means for the addressable market. And the last one is what I would want to describe as economic risk beta. And again, the AI revolution is definitely real. You know, this is not an exercise in being an AI denier or even an AI downplayer. It's just that however exciting this thing is, think about the amount of CapEx that it's going to require for this thing to kind of be in the bloodstream of American business. And if we actually hit a bad spot economically for any reason, right? This doesn't, whatever the thing is that causes CFOs and business leaders to say, I think we're going to have to think about cutting expenses here. I think we're going to have to think about how we're going to make payroll. My suspicion is, you know,”
2024-04-08 · Forward Guidance · The Anatomy Of Bubbles | Jonathan Treussard on Private Credit, Nvidia, and Dangers of “Engineered Yield” · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Every day that we don't get to that breaking point with China, Nvidia shareholders have got to be taking a real deep breath and saying, well, gee, today was a good day. And so that's just kind of rational price compensation for bearing that huge amount of risk, number one. Number two is what I would describe as political regulatory risk. Obviously, Europe is a little bit ahead of the US in terms of AI regulation, but ultimately AI regulation in the US will be incredibly important to how this all plays out. And so every day that we're still living in the wild west of AI is a day where people are walking around thinking, you know, all everything is a possibility when it comes to applications. And so I think there is a good amount of quote-unquote regulatory risk compensation because the people that are currently holding this stuff, which is kind of a proxy for AI at large.”
2024-04-08 · Forward Guidance · The Anatomy Of Bubbles | Jonathan Treussard on Private Credit, Nvidia, and Dangers of “Engineered Yield” · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Living in fear of the globe really cracking into for these prices to make sense, NVIDIA needs to have the world as its addressable market, you know, over the kind of secular horizon. And we know that we're doing things and trying to prevent the chips from getting to China and so on and so forth. But right now we're still, I think, living in the gray. It hasn't been, you know, there is a reasonable pathway to saying, well, no, once we sort out our differences, so to speak, you know, the addressable market for these chips is still international, you know, global.”
2024-04-08 · Forward Guidance · The Anatomy Of Bubbles | Jonathan Treussard on Private Credit, Nvidia, and Dangers of “Engineered Yield” · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Things. These are things where you just have to think your way through it and assign probabilities to it, right? I think it is reasonable to think of Nvidia, for example, and therefore US large stocks, because we know that NVIDIA has been leading the dance. From a rational efficient market standpoint, where yes, NVIDIA has found itself at the right place at the right time with a product that is unequivocally a real thing, right? So right there. But when you see the price action in relation to earnings that have grown hyperbolically recently, you ask yourself, what does it take for this to not be a bubble, right? What does it take for this to be kind of a rational response? And I think the way to think about it is this may not be a rational price per se, but the response could be motivated rationally in the following way. Number one, NVIDIA, and by that I mean shareholders in NVIDIA have got to be.”
2024-04-08 · Forward Guidance · The Anatomy Of Bubbles | Jonathan Treussard on Private Credit, Nvidia, and Dangers of “Engineered Yield” · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“You know, in a dicey spot where valuations are high, volatility, implied volatility has been low, which means there's probably been a lot of risk taking going on that hasn't been happening at, you know, very good prices. And so, you know, it's probably some version of 3.5 out of 5 type of thing on concern meter. Now, when you think about a bubble, A lot of it has to be just irrational exuberance, right? And all of that. And particularly you mentioned NVIDIA. I've been really struggling with how to think about NVIDIA and its rise recently and whether it's just irrational exuberance, you know, a very behavioral type of thing. And I'm having a hard time making sense of what we're seeing just on that basis. And as a result of that, I think it's reasonable. These are not knowable.”
2024-04-08 · Forward Guidance · The Anatomy Of Bubbles | Jonathan Treussard on Private Credit, Nvidia, and Dangers of “Engineered Yield” · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So 97 isn't 100, but it's pretty darn close. But we've been there before. In fact, we were there two years ago. And after a correction and a round trip, we're back, right? So, and we did not, as you highlighted, have just an epic decline. We had a pretty rough decline, but we didn't have an epic decline as a result of where we were two years ago. So I think U.S. large caps are expensive. And as a result of that, what do we know empirically is that valuations are pretty informative conditioning the variable, you know, a thing that informs future returns on a long horizon, like a 10-year horizon, not the next year, not certainly not the next month. You have to ask yourself, is the US stock market in a bubble? Again, I think we have to be very careful when we say those things. And I think the answer is no, because, but I mean, it's like if you were, you know, forcing me to be very binary, I would say no. I think we're.”
2024-04-08 · Forward Guidance · The Anatomy Of Bubbles | Jonathan Treussard on Private Credit, Nvidia, and Dangers of “Engineered Yield” · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“In no particular order. Let's hit US stocks first, just because I think it's a decent place to start. U.S. stocks are expensive, we know that. You know, if you look at Cape ratios, Schiller PEs going back to 1880, I think the latest reading is something like the 97th percentile evaluations going back to 1880, which did I say 87 and 97. It was 97.”
2024-04-08 · Forward Guidance · The Anatomy Of Bubbles | Jonathan Treussard on Private Credit, Nvidia, and Dangers of “Engineered Yield” · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Totally agree. And that's why I'm being very measured. I just think it just might be, I mean, a thing that is being sold a little aggressively. How's that for a description”
2024-04-08 · Forward Guidance · The Anatomy Of Bubbles | Jonathan Treussard on Private Credit, Nvidia, and Dangers of “Engineered Yield” · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And you and I both know that when people hear someone, especially on TV, calling something a bubble, often they interpret that as this thing will collapse and decline sharply in price decline within one year. And so it's important to not call something bubble unless you think that, even though you think maybe things are getting bubbleous, a bubble could be forming a bubble. The conditions for a bubble to form are present, something like that. But yeah, it's important to not call something a bubble unless you really think it's going down.”
2024-04-08 · Forward Guidance · The Anatomy Of Bubbles | Jonathan Treussard on Private Credit, Nvidia, and Dangers of “Engineered Yield” · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I don't think it's there yet. It's concerning. I just think, no, I don't think there is a bubble, but there is something about new shiny thing that, you know, everybody needs a big slug of that suggests a certain degree of herd mentality around it. But no, I think private credit could disappoint. No question. It could also do fine. But I don't think it's a bubble as in, you know, run, you know, type of thing. It's just like, is that necessary for most people? I mean, you know, that sort of thing.”
2024-04-08 · Forward Guidance · The Anatomy Of Bubbles | Jonathan Treussard on Private Credit, Nvidia, and Dangers of “Engineered Yield” · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So, I think the good guy version of the argument is gee, I should really consider this. This is a new thing. The less good guy version of the argument is, hey, that kind of keeps the conversation fresh with my clients. And then the really cynical version of it is particularly in captive wealth management world, is more fees for the Home Office.”
2024-04-08 · Forward Guidance · The Anatomy Of Bubbles | Jonathan Treussard on Private Credit, Nvidia, and Dangers of “Engineered Yield” · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Of a big company, thank you. What's the incentive again in the world in which you think people are operating as fiduciaries? It's just hard when someone shoves, you know, again, high returns, low risk, you know, schmuckety, schmuck in front of you to say, well, I'm going to say no to that. So that's just a, you know, kind of a good guy instinct. There is then a slightly good guy instinct version of the story, which is what I would want to describe as the new shiny object principle, which is, hey, you've put your client in a very decent portfolio and then inherently you want to combat the what have you done for me lately type of energy where you're like, well, every few months I try to put something new in front of the client. So they feel like I'm like, I'm not just kind of sitting back and, you know, kicking, you know, kicking back.”
2024-04-08 · Forward Guidance · The Anatomy Of Bubbles | Jonathan Treussard on Private Credit, Nvidia, and Dangers of “Engineered Yield” · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Red carpet is what the red carpet always is, right? Which is hey, let me tell you about it, let me educate you. This is a thing that your clients need in their diet, you know, all of that kind of deal. And I think that's probably happening in Let's Call it the Independent wealth management space to some degree, but I think it's probably happening 10x. And I mean, this is not a real statistic. This is a figure of speech in the more captive wealth management space where the wealth management arm is”
2024-04-08 · Forward Guidance · The Anatomy Of Bubbles | Jonathan Treussard on Private Credit, Nvidia, and Dangers of “Engineered Yield” · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Around saying, Hey, I want some of that stuff, but I think most people are, particularly in that private wealth, private banking world, they're probably being quote unquote educated about it in a way that leads to allocations. And this is where I'm sure you read Jason Sweig from the Wall Street Journal, How Could You Not, Jason recently had a, I think one of the most important pieces that he's written in a long time. There was some version of, you know, when Wall Street rolls out the red carpet for you, ask why. And the fact that Wall Street is rolling out the red carpet to high net worth investors as it relates to things like private credit is probably worth asking why.”
2024-04-08 · Forward Guidance · The Anatomy Of Bubbles | Jonathan Treussard on Private Credit, Nvidia, and Dangers of “Engineered Yield” · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, I think private credit is going through a transformation, which is again where you have to start to worry a little bit when you see things morph. Private credit historically has been really directed at institutional investors and predominantly insurance companies. And that's fine. I guess that's their adults and sophisticated and all that kind of deal. They have professional investment staff. I think what you're seeing in wealth management today feels a little more sold than bought. That's where it gets a little more worrisome. The fact that private credit is migrating towards ultra high net worth and high net worth investors through the creation of more accessible vehicles and so on and so forth. So yeah, sure. I'm sure some people are walking around because their friends told them that they've got some private credit exposure. Sure, some people are walking.”
2024-04-08 · Forward Guidance · The Anatomy Of Bubbles | Jonathan Treussard on Private Credit, Nvidia, and Dangers of “Engineered Yield” · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Sure. And that's where prices matter when credit is cheap. People tend to abuse it. When credit is not cheap, people tend to abuse it less. And obviously that is why historically a great deal of blame. And I think largely correct, but maybe a little bit exaggerated because, again, I think it happened in a broader context, but a huge amount of blame for the financial crisis laid at the feet of Alan Greenspan for keeping rates too low too long. And as a result of that, creating a fertile ground for people to say there's free money here. How about I put it to work?”
2024-04-08 · Forward Guidance · The Anatomy Of Bubbles | Jonathan Treussard on Private Credit, Nvidia, and Dangers of “Engineered Yield” · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“You know, private investors. It's hard to argue that we get to the place we are today with private credit without private equity. And that's kind of the point, which is in order to do private equity, you need leverage, you need access to funds. And when the whole world starts worrying about giving you access to that credit through the regular channels, then the private equity people being savvy as they are say, well, gee, how about we create this other thing called private credit and then we, you know, that's kind of a two-for-one type of deal. That's what I mean. It tends to be that credit comes after the first thing.”
2024-04-08 · Forward Guidance · The Anatomy Of Bubbles | Jonathan Treussard on Private Credit, Nvidia, and Dangers of “Engineered Yield” · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Predicated kind of on certain outcomes being realized. And so when those outcomes aren't realized, it's really bad. And what I mean by that, of course, is repayment of principal. I tend to think of that as structure. When you buy a stock, it doesn't have a lot of financial engineering structure to it. It's like, well, it'll go up. It'll go down. We'll figure it out. And you're kind of signing up for that. When you buy fixed income, including credit, it's really a binary thing, either it's performing or it's not. And when you keep doing things that increase the odds of non-performance, but you hope and expect that you're still going to get the good outcome, then you do that at scale, then it gets dicey. I'll give you another example, which I think is not Uber concerning just yet, but I think is just worth keeping an eye on. I'm sure you're familiar with private credit, which is the idea that, you know, credit has been migrating from the banking system, a regulated system to.”
2024-04-08 · Forward Guidance · The Anatomy Of Bubbles | Jonathan Treussard on Private Credit, Nvidia, and Dangers of “Engineered Yield” · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Usually a credit bubble is a corollary to something else, right? So we had a credit bubble because we had a real estate bubble. And people got super excited about owning real estate. And of course, the whole notion of owning real estate is leverage. And by the way, that's hard to beat, right? I mean, there's an argument for saying, hey, Jude, if this thing really is appreciating on a secular horizon, and by the way, it's not crazy volatile, right? That's the argument, levering it five to one is a is a pretty good proposition for wealth creation. And so the reason we had a credit bubble in the mid-2000s was because we had a real estate bubble. So credit bubbles tend to be kind of second order things, but they're usually the thing that kind of really kick you in the shins in the end because credit or more generally speaking fixed income has structure that is”
2024-04-08 · Forward Guidance · The Anatomy Of Bubbles | Jonathan Treussard on Private Credit, Nvidia, and Dangers of “Engineered Yield” · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Those are two factors which I think drive a lot of equity valuation, could drive an equity bubble, maybe a real estate bubble about the hope of immense earnings power. But when it comes to credit, it's less about the earnings power and more about the ability to repay debt. So what fuels a credit bubble where it's not a bubble in, oh my God, you know, this thing is going to make so much money. It's just, it's a bubble about maybe how safe something actually is, such as mortgages, historically an extremely safe product, very low default rate. But then, of course, in the US and also in Europe, by the way, bankers took it way, way too far.”
2024-04-08 · Forward Guidance · The Anatomy Of Bubbles | Jonathan Treussard on Private Credit, Nvidia, and Dangers of “Engineered Yield” · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“That's it. That's it. And so sometimes it's very intentional. And again, I give you the example of when something like the ascension of James Stewart I in 1620 is like, hey, now I'm in charge of this thing. And I'm not sure how I would feel about the locals. That's pretty like as plain as it gets. And then sometimes it's just the world is changing in ways that we don't totally understand. And as a result of that, you know, who's most favored in a society changes? And that's just an ongoing process. It's not a bad or a good thing. It's just is.”
2024-04-08 · Forward Guidance · The Anatomy Of Bubbles | Jonathan Treussard on Private Credit, Nvidia, and Dangers of “Engineered Yield” · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“that a bubble by the nature of the fact that the pie isn't growing fast enough for the prices to make sense, it has to be that it's about moving money from one people, you know, one person's pocket to somebody else's.”
2024-04-08 · Forward Guidance · The Anatomy Of Bubbles | Jonathan Treussard on Private Credit, Nvidia, and Dangers of “Engineered Yield” · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, so yes and again if you think about investing in general, right? And honestly, human activity in general, it's in its best form. It's about, as the expression goes, growing the pie, right? That's kind of productivity and the fact that, you know, the history of our species really is about technological invention and just getting more productive. It's about growing the pie and then sharing it, right? The thing about a bubble, which is go back to the basic thing that we started talking about a few minutes ago, the thing about a bubble is like there is no fundamental thing going on that is growing in any way, shape, or form in a sufficient manner to warrant the prices. And so as a result of that, you have to, again, this is a very mechanical point. This isn't some kind of, you know, conspiratorial thing. It is painfully obvious.”
2024-04-08 · Forward Guidance · The Anatomy Of Bubbles | Jonathan Treussard on Private Credit, Nvidia, and Dangers of “Engineered Yield” · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Was the king of the Scots, and all of a sudden he was put in charge of England. And he's like, I'm a Scot. I don't really like those kind of natives, the Brits. And, you know, the South Sea bubble played a huge role in redistributing wealth away from the people that he had just kind of taken over, basically. I would be remiss if I did mention that there is a paper that's worth pulling up. And again, one that I helped Earl Thompson and Charlie Hickson research a million years ago called Predicting Bubbles. And if you read it carefully, we have the distinct good fortune or maybe foresight of predicting the real estate bubble of the mid-2000s, back in 2002, 2003.”
2024-04-08 · Forward Guidance · The Anatomy Of Bubbles | Jonathan Treussard on Private Credit, Nvidia, and Dangers of “Engineered Yield” · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Social order is changing. And somehow there is a desire for, and that can be explicit or implicit. And I think more often than not, it's implicit, though with the case of the South Sea bubble, I think it was very explicit, and I'll tell you why in a second. There is a desire for kind of like moving the chips on the board. And what I mean by that is like some people were in charge and now some other people really are favored. And it's just a way to kind of redistribute wealth. In the case of the South Sea bubble, it was painfully obvious where Stuart I.”
2024-04-08 · Forward Guidance · The Anatomy Of Bubbles | Jonathan Treussard on Private Credit, Nvidia, and Dangers of “Engineered Yield” · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Has revealed itself. That's number one. And I'll give you the example of some of the bigger historic bubbles that I think are worth studying, like the South Sea bubble, like the Mississippi bubble in the 1600s. And, you know, the technology of the time was exploration and the fact that there was this land, you know, way out into the distance. And if you could get there and you could get the stuff and bring it back home, there was all this value to be generated. And so the point is that's technology. That's a new quote unquote new paradigm. And it does excite people's imagination for good reasons. The other thing, which gets a little more subtle, but I think is important is you have to think of bubbles as arising within a society where kind of the preferred”
2024-04-08 · Forward Guidance · The Anatomy Of Bubbles | Jonathan Treussard on Private Credit, Nvidia, and Dangers of “Engineered Yield” · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Result of that at the first sign of trouble, the whole kind of souffle just kind of collapses onto itself. So that's the mechanical answer, which is, you know, loony valuations, a lot of excitement in the marketplace, leaving close to no room for rationality to actually back up these prices on a secular horizon. The other thing, and again, this is where I really want to give credit to Earl for his understanding of bubbles and what he taught me. during that time it really helps to understand that those bubbles the big ones the ones that you know people talk about right about you know 10 years 50 years hundreds of years after the fact they tend to live in a bigger context in a in an environment where something like quote unquote new technology a new thing has”
2024-04-08 · Forward Guidance · The Anatomy Of Bubbles | Jonathan Treussard on Private Credit, Nvidia, and Dangers of “Engineered Yield” · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Again, that's a great question and a great place to start. And I did a lot of work researching bubbles not as a PhD student at BU, but actually during my undergrad time at UCLA, I had the great fortune of being a student and a research assistant and a co-author for a time to Earl Thompson, who was just a fabulous mentor and just a great thinker. And we spent a lot of time thinking about the great bubbles in history. This was the 2001, 2003 period as the tech bubble was bursting. So bubbles. Look, pretty clearly of a bubble is a market that is unsustainably expensive relative to fundamentals and one in which there is a reason argument for there is no pathway to the fundamentals justifying the prices over the foreseeable future.”
2024-04-08 · Forward Guidance · The Anatomy Of Bubbles | Jonathan Treussard on Private Credit, Nvidia, and Dangers of “Engineered Yield” · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT