YouSaid · the spoken record

Joshua Mahony

lines on the record: 27
first: 2021-11-08
most recent: 2021-11-08
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

Every line below is reproduced as it was said and linked to the record it came from. Nothing here is summarised or generated. Directory · Search · Corrections

“Because for me, at the moment, around commodities, more so than it has been for a long time. And certainly it's a case of trying to find those opportunities and find those areas and try to look in depth into those areas over time.”
2021-11-08 · Intelligence Squared · Business Weekly: Energy, Inflation and the Markets with Joshua Mahony · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“In terms of protecting investments, a lot of it's going to come down to an element of diversification. Don't necessarily stick all your eggs in one basket, so to speak. In terms of where do you find new trends, where do you look for new ideas? Twitter is always a useful place to be, but of course there's millions of people out there with a view. And so it's really trying to nail down the people that you think are to be trusted in terms of their view and then trying to really look into that in greater detail once you find any information off of that. Of course, we provide analysis on the IG side, so both on our website and our platform where we will try and put forward to you any of the ideas that I've been talking about today and just as an insight of the kind of things that I've been talking about recently, you move with the times. And so recently been writing about coffee and uranium, like I said, lumber and natural gas and iron ore. And so really there's been a big focus.”
2021-11-08 · Intelligence Squared · Business Weekly: Energy, Inflation and the Markets with Joshua Mahony · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Have a greater sort of reliance on investment banking over in the US and as markets move higher than the trading side of the businesses over in the US can do very well. But I do think the UK is looking particularly interesting at the moment where we're looking to see the Bank of England moving ahead of many of the others in terms of interest rates, of course increasing margins. And therefore, many people are talking about the FTSE being undervalued and European stocks being undervalued. I think if we see the Bank of England raising rates and we see the economy continuing to grow, then UK banks are a good place to be.”
2021-11-08 · Intelligence Squared · Business Weekly: Energy, Inflation and the Markets with Joshua Mahony · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So that's a particularly interesting one for me, but really across the board, if you can gain some sort of decent exposure to commodities, I think it gives you a good way to be able to move alongside the ride in terms of inflation and benefit from that. Another area you're going to want to look at is going to be the banks. Of course, we're seeing many of these banks being able to claim back money for losses that they were expecting, but they didn't necessarily have to undergo during the pandemic period. And alongside that, with the fact that we're seeing people with flush with cash willing to spend money, central banks have really been pumping. We've seen very supportive governments as well. The economic outlook is good. But also we're looking for higher interest rates. And certainly from a UK banking perspective, it always seems to underperform the US in part because of the fact that we...”
2021-11-08 · Intelligence Squared · Business Weekly: Energy, Inflation and the Markets with Joshua Mahony · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Like I alluded to earlier, I think one of the areas to be looking out for is physical assets. Now, inflation for an investor can be a negative thing because if inflation's, you know, 10% in a year, then you need to make 10% on your portfolio just to be flat. And so the question mark is, what do you do when you've got rising inflation and how do you keep up with that? Well, the answer in my mind is to invest in something that is going to inflate. And those inflationary pressures appear to be moving in the commodity space. And therefore, commodity-based assets, I would say, are probably going to be something that continue to look attractive as we move into the back of the year and into the new year. Like I said, uranium for me, I think, is a very interesting one because there is this sort of squeeze and an answer needs to be found in terms of finding a reliable.”
2021-11-08 · Intelligence Squared · Business Weekly: Energy, Inflation and the Markets with Joshua Mahony · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Small margins, and then you see a ramp up in terms of costs. That's going to be a risk. And of course, another risk is what if we see another variant come out and suddenly we see fresh lockdowns. We've seen more recently Morocco blocking flights from the UK on rising cases. You know, every time you feel like it's over, it seems to come back to buy us. So that is, for me, still a risk despite the fact that things seem to be perking up a little bit.”
2021-11-08 · Intelligence Squared · Business Weekly: Energy, Inflation and the Markets with Joshua Mahony · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I would say that retailers, one of the major ones as we covered, another area that I'd probably allude to is airlines. No, we're seeing reopening within the sort of international travel realm. And therefore, in some ways, this is a great opportunity. We're seeing the back of this virus and suddenly this feels like the moment where the airlines are really going to be able to go on full blast. At the same time, you're seeing, of course, this ramp up in terms of costs from an energy perspective and question marks around about what their margins are looking like. Of course, you're seeing significant competition across that area. And unless we actually see some sort of consolidation, which had been suggested earlier in the year, perhaps tongue in cheek by Ryanair chief, who said that EasyJet should get bought out because that's how they're going to be able to operate best. But the fact of the matter is where you see really high competition.”
2021-11-08 · Intelligence Squared · Business Weekly: Energy, Inflation and the Markets with Joshua Mahony · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Get products into the shop to allow people to buy them. And on the job side, it's a question mark of can we get the people to fill those positions? The interesting thing around that was the latest job support, it really felt like if the number was low, which it turned out to be, it wasn't necessarily going to be a case of people aren't willing to hire. It was a case of they haven't found the right people. And certainly with the fact that we've got record vacancies over the US, that theme is certainly going to be crucial as we move into one of the most important periods of the year for retailers. Of course, the festive period is where everyone buys presents. And that could be a problem if they don't necessarily perform well in Q4 when that's a period where they're expecting to do so. That could be a problem. On the flip side, you could say, well, actually, if they manage to really look after their supply chain.”
2021-11-08 · Intelligence Squared · Business Weekly: Energy, Inflation and the Markets with Joshua Mahony · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I think it will likely be transitory, so to speak. But I think that this is a really interesting theme coming into Q4. Now, of course, retailers, many of them have been hard hit over the years anyway, certainly the idea of the death of the high streets has been a key one over recent years. And now this just feels like it's the latest issue to resolve because certainly here in the UK, we're having difficulties finding people to deliver goods. And certainly if we're seeing them potentially not getting the right people on board in terms of being able to get their goods to people, then they're really not taking advantage of the demand that appears to be there. So the story at the moment isn't necessarily a question of are people willing to buy products? It isn't necessarily a question of are businesses willing to hire people. Instead, it's a case of can we get the products to people?”
2021-11-08 · Intelligence Squared · Business Weekly: Energy, Inflation and the Markets with Joshua Mahony · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Going to be a transitory rise in terms of inflation, despite the fact that it keeps moving higher. So that in itself creates a very interesting picture for traders out there because as you see interest rates rising in one area and it doesn't rise in another area, so you introduce this carry trade effect where you actually benefit by being long one currency over another from an interest rate differential perspective. So that should give us some good volatility in particular in relation to the FX markets.”
2021-11-08 · Intelligence Squared · Business Weekly: Energy, Inflation and the Markets with Joshua Mahony · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“The interesting thing about this is the fact that there's very different stories depending on where you're looking. Now, certainly the Bank of England appear to be around about the front end of the curve where they're not only expected to raise rates over the near term, but suddenly you've got markets pricing in the potential to see a series of rate hikes that would lead us to move above 1% in the next six months. I think that's somewhat getting carried away with ourselves, quite frankly. But nonetheless, I think the Bank of England is in a position where it's likely to be raising rates. Of course, the Federal Reserve are talking about tapering, so it feels like it's one step at a time over in the US. But we've already seen the RBNZ over in New Zealand raising rates on the 6th of October, whereas we're expecting Australia, on the other hand, to be holding off for some time yet. So we're seeing a wide range of outlooks. And certainly ECB continues to tout this line of saying that it's”
2021-11-08 · Intelligence Squared · Business Weekly: Energy, Inflation and the Markets with Joshua Mahony · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Recently, about truck drivers here in the UK and the lack thereof, shipping problems in terms of getting ships to the right places at the right time. Then input prices. We were talking a lot last year about lumber prices. Of course, we're talking now about energy prices, but also things like coffee and oats and cotton, soybean. You name it, think prices have gone higher. And this is a wider theme of physical assets becoming more expensive. And I think that's going to be a theme going forward as we move towards the back end of this year. So, you know, if you're looking at that inflation effect, what's that doing in terms of the economy? Well, it's creating less disposable income, like I was saying, slower real wage growth and shifting that monetary policy outlook. And all in all, that's not necessarily great if you're looking at the sort of wider picture for the markets.”
2021-11-08 · Intelligence Squared · Business Weekly: Energy, Inflation and the Markets with Joshua Mahony · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“As inflation rises, there's a willingness to actually pay higher prices. Now, if you look at, say, your local restaurant, from my perspective, appears to be the case that prices have gone up very significantly because they are trying to make up for lost earnings over that period of time. Now, you talk about whether something's transitory or not. I don't necessarily think that once they remake the money that they've lost during lockdown, that they're suddenly going to cut their prices by 30% and get back to where they were before. So I think there's likely to be an element of it that certainly going to stick around. In terms of some of the other factors that we've seen coming into play, in terms of, say, transportation and the like and some of the prices for sort of underlying assets and input prices, I think that's probably more likely to have a more transitory element to it, but it's probably going to take some time to settle down. Certainly, there's been some big head.”
2021-11-08 · Intelligence Squared · Business Weekly: Energy, Inflation and the Markets with Joshua Mahony · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“There's so many factors that go into it. I would say a lot of it is going to be coming down to COVID, really, and the fact that it's really given the world a sort of jolt in a number of different ways. Now, of course, one of the underlying factors behind why we've seen such high inflation is the energy prices that we've alluded to before. And unfortunately, that doesn't seem like it's going anywhere at the moment. But also, we've seen this ramp up in demand post-lockdown. And that comes off the back of the fact that, yes, some people may have lost their jobs, but a lot of people were paid to stay at home and didn't necessarily have anywhere to spend their money. You couldn't go on holiday. You couldn't go to a show. You couldn't go to a restaurant. And so people are sitting on a huge pile of savings nationally and globally. And there needs to be somewhere to spend that money. So there's a willingness to spend.”
2021-11-08 · Intelligence Squared · Business Weekly: Energy, Inflation and the Markets with Joshua Mahony · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Within the area are also looking out for Kazatom Prom, which is the biggest producer out there. They're expecting prices to hit 80-90, so 80 or $90 before they start trying to step in and maybe quell that upside a little bit. Now, that's double where we are at the moment. So you're already looking at a potential doubling of uranium before they start to step in. So everyone's preparing for higher uranium prices. And therefore, for me, I think that is likely to be the bridge where we don't necessarily have major output in terms of emissions, but we do have that strong baseload energy source that I was alluding to earlier.”
2021-11-08 · Intelligence Squared · Business Weekly: Energy, Inflation and the Markets with Joshua Mahony · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Fossil fuels are undervalued. In terms of what we could see going forward, I expect to see further upside in terms of the likes of crude oil and some of the underlying products as well. Certainly as we move towards a period where, like I've said, I don't think shale are necessarily going to be doing too much. OPEC seem to be only willing to raise production a little bit on a month-to-month basis. There's going to be a question mark coming into play and we're already hearing it around about exactly what we can do. And we're already seeing from a number of countries this move towards nuclear. And I think that's going to be a really interesting bridge between the two sides here. You've seen the likes of France and the UK and Japan talking about the possibility of either reopening nuclear plants or creating smaller nuclear plants. Now, I expect to see a ramp up in terms of the uranium price, and that seems to be something that some of the major players...”
2021-11-08 · Intelligence Squared · Business Weekly: Energy, Inflation and the Markets with Joshua Mahony · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Difficult to be honest because everyone has seemingly already positioned themselves for the future. And what we're seeing at the moment is that people are now starting to realize that perhaps the opportunities are in a way looking back, certainly over the near term anyway, but longer term ESG investing and investing in the green future is going to be the direction to go in if you're holding things for a long period of time. And certainly if you're looking at the way that funds operate and money managers operate, they generally want to be relatively ESG compliant because then it sort of ticks a box so that people will want to invest in them. And they're not necessarily going to want to be moving towards fossil fuels per se instead moving towards the future where everyone's driving electric cars and we're reliant more on batteries and bioplastics and the like. But I think for the near term, we are seeing people realizing that some of these”
2021-11-08 · Intelligence Squared · Business Weekly: Energy, Inflation and the Markets with Joshua Mahony · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“The required agreements to be able to push us in the direction we need to go, that's going to be something that we'll have to keep an eye out for. But I guess the skeptics amongst us would probably say, well, even if those agreements were made, what's the likelihood that these countries are actually going to stick to it? You've already got Russia, China, Brazil, India, and Australia all labeled critically insufficient in terms of their emission reduction. The US labeled insufficient. And so there's some big question marks around it. And I think it does really shift the focus towards the question mark of how are they going to bridge the gap between fossil fuels, which seemingly is the past, and green energy, which at the moment renewable energies just aren't necessarily positioned to be able to account for the mainstay of the energy source that we require.”
2021-11-08 · Intelligence Squared · Business Weekly: Energy, Inflation and the Markets with Joshua Mahony · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, I mean, look, COP26 is certainly going to grab the headlines, but it's come at a bad time. Like I said, we've got different parts of the world that are really struggling with their lack of energy. And so view to them bring all of those leaders to a table and try to get them to commit to bringing down their emissions. It's going to be a tough sell at the moment. Now, certainly people were expecting it and the transition is always going to be towards a more green world for the long term. But certainly for the near term, I think it's going to be very difficult to get agreements at a time where you'll see in the Chinese, for example, having to close factories because they don't necessarily have enough energy to be able to keep them open. So for you to push more hardline limits on the amount of carbon emissions that they're going to be able to emit, that's going to be difficult. So certainly it's something that we'll be grabbing the headlines, whether we see those kind of agreements.”
2021-11-08 · Intelligence Squared · Business Weekly: Energy, Inflation and the Markets with Joshua Mahony · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Don't necessarily have as much disposable income, so that's not going to be particularly great for businesses as people don't necessarily have as much to spend because they're spending a lot more at the pump. And then from a wider perspective, it's talking about higher inflation, what might higher inflation do? Well, it puts pressure on central banks to act. And certainly we have that from the Bank of England.”
2021-11-08 · Intelligence Squared · Business Weekly: Energy, Inflation and the Markets with Joshua Mahony · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Within the markets, whether it be So, we don't think we're necessarily going to see a huge amount extra from OPEC anytime soon. On a shale perspective, they don't necessarily seem too interested in it either. I think it seems that rather than investing in new wells, it seems like they want to pay out their shareholders first. And certainly it's the kind of sector where you're going to see increased difficulties in raising funding for new project because, like I said, everything's about ESG at the moment. It's not necessarily about investing in new crude output. So certainly big questions ahead. The weather is going to be key. We've already heard about this new El Nino weather passum coming through in Asia. That means the potential for colder months ahead. And so if you wrap all of that up, you're looking at the potential for supply to really underperform against demand as we continue to push towards a fully globalized world. And what does that mean in terms of businesses? Well, it means higher costs. It means lower margins. It means consumers.”
2021-11-08 · Intelligence Squared · Business Weekly: Energy, Inflation and the Markets with Joshua Mahony · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“We've, of course, seen a lot of money moving into green projects and renewable energies. But part of that is that people have left behind the fossil fuel energy sources and investment in that, perhaps a little bit too easily and it's something certainly that I think for investors it's worth keeping an eye out for. We here in the UK have seen it in the fact that we've seen record highs in UK petrol prices over in the US over the last year. They've seen petrol prices or gasoline prices 50% higher in terms of your sort of mainstay markets, WTI seven year high. And certainly that has a knock-on effect because around about 50% of gasoline prices is impacted by the underlying crude oil price. So certainly in terms of what's happening for the wider market, you need to be looking out for what's happening in terms of energy prices. How is that going to impact different things?”
2021-11-08 · Intelligence Squared · Business Weekly: Energy, Inflation and the Markets with Joshua Mahony · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“different range of factors but there's a wider story aside from natural gas we have seen of course like I was saying a cold winter but really that has a knock on effect in terms of inventories of oil and oil based products and as you see inventories dwindling from rising demand from a cold winter last year and therefore we saw significant demand that time around we're seeing us moving to a new winter where we don't necessarily have high levels of inventories therefore if we were to have a cold winter then you're again going to see further pressure put on prices for oil based products and natural gas going forward now we've already seen Goldman Sachs saying that oil demand is nearing record highs already and like I said we could see a ramp up in terms of demand going forward and really a lot of this comes back to a lack of investment”
2021-11-08 · Intelligence Squared · Business Weekly: Energy, Inflation and the Markets with Joshua Mahony · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Or brings question marks around about whether the renewable sector is really ready to be able to provide the mainstay of the energy source for the future. It's worthwhile noting that if you're looking at, say, wind energy or solar energy, it's not something that is consistent, of course. The wind can blow more or less at different points in the day and the sun can shine more or less at different points throughout the year as well. And so you're looking for baseload effects. You're looking for that baseload energy, which is why you often see the likes of China, for instance, burning coal, because that's the thing that's reliable as long as they have coal. They always have energy. And so this question marks about that baseload effect on where that baseload energy is going to come from. Another significant factor was the hurricane Ida last year. And so we saw disruption around about that. We've seen bottlenecks over in Russia.”
2021-11-08 · Intelligence Squared · Business Weekly: Energy, Inflation and the Markets with Joshua Mahony · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I think that it's one of the most important issues to be addressing at the moment. Frankly, everyone wants to move towards green, but what we're seeing is this huge jump in terms of fossil fuel-based energy sources. Like you alluded to, the likes of natural gas has been rocketing of late 15 months leading into October saw a 330% rise in natural gas. And we have seen that quilt somewhat from Russian promises to be able to export more to Europe. But I think that this isn't necessarily over quite yet. Certainly if we look at what might be the kind of driving factors behind that, one thing was that we did have a relatively cold winter last year. And so it really does put question marks around about what's happening for this coming winter. We also have seen different regional effects. So say in around about the UK, we've seen somewhat of a lack of wind around North Sea.”
2021-11-08 · Intelligence Squared · Business Weekly: Energy, Inflation and the Markets with Joshua Mahony · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Bet against, but it certainly seems to be treading water for the best part of six months now. Whereas Netflix really does seem to manage to continue to push onwards and upwards, despite the fact that people are leaving the home, it does feel like the company has become a mainstay within everyone's household at the moment. And they do, for my mind, have the possibility to be able to increase margins as we go forward. And so they've continued to push onwards and upwards. So really, it is a relatively varied experience when you're looking at some of those major winners throughout 2020.”
2021-11-08 · Intelligence Squared · Business Weekly: Energy, Inflation and the Markets with Joshua Mahony · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, I mean, look, understandably so, we've seen some of the heat taken out of those so-called stay-at-home companies. It's different across the board, really. I would say as a whole, technology has been a little bit under pressure. That really comes as we see inflation rising. We see a shift in terms of monetary policy expectations. And question marks around about those sky-high valuations that we do see across those tech names and whether they're justified in a world where we might see the central banks actually start to pull away some of that support. Certainly the rise in yields has been something that points towards the potential for outperformance, for value stocks over so-called tech names. But nonetheless, it's something that's going to come in a company by company basis. For example, we've seen the likes of Zoom come off over 50% since its high. The likes of Amazon, it's such a mainstay in terms of an investment that is the kind of company and you're not really going to.”
2021-11-08 · Intelligence Squared · Business Weekly: Energy, Inflation and the Markets with Joshua Mahony · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source