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Julian Brigden

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101
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2023-07-26
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2023-07-26
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podcast

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  1. So I think the big issue that I've got it with Jack is an inconsistency between what equities are pricing and what the bond market is pricing. And the only way that that is... Something has to crack. So essentially, either the bond market has to be proved wrong and we're not going to get hundreds of basis points at the rate hikes. So we do the, you know, we have a nursery rhyme in the UK, the grand old Duke of York. He kind of marched his men up to the top of the hill and he marched them straight back down again. So we don't get that. And in which case bonds are mispriced, so yields are going higher. Or alternatively, and maybe we're seeing nascent signs of that. The equity market is wrong. The equity market is going to come materially lower. And that's going to help tighten financial conditions. And we're going to see a correction in stocks, in which case, fine, you can get rate cuts in that environment, but there's just a total inconsistency between these two markets. It is not possible for you to have resilient rising equities.

    2023-07-26 · Forward Guidance · Julian Brigden: Markets "On A Knife's Edge" After July Fed Meeting · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT