YouSaid · the spoken record

Juliette Declercq

lines on the record: 59
first: 2022-03-06
most recent: 2022-03-06
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

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“I mean, there's no question that the risk is obviously stagflation. And what you can see here is basically all the shocks, you know, the supply shocks that have happened. So you've got the OPEC embargo in 1973. You've got the second oil crisis in 1979, Kuwait invasion. What's really started so far, my thesis has really been that commodities have been really strong, but it's not been a supply shock. It's been much more of a demand shock in other words. We've exited the COVID crisis with a lot stronger demand than demand was basically like a deficient for the past three decades.”
2022-03-06 · Forward Guidance · The "Money Illusion" Keeps the Economy Hot | Juliette Declercq · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And that's not really been the case at all. So yeah, we're basically adding to a macro paradigm shift a geopolitical paradigm shift. It's a move in both cases, which is obviously towards like a very unstable equilibrium, but that's the one we're going to have to get used to.”
2022-03-06 · Forward Guidance · The "Money Illusion" Keeps the Economy Hot | Juliette Declercq · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So that's basically the whole world as used a nuclear option on that and we will see what happens. But what is clear is like basically a European nation has been has emerged out of COVID first but the second thing is obviously geopolitical and I don't think we will ever go back to sort of like I've spreads blow up to sort of like levels we've seen before because there is now like a union which has shown that it's got very strong results. I mean I think EU was a mind mind blowing over the weekend is how fast and how far EU has moved even much faster than the UK which was obviously claiming that being out of the EU would allow them to be a lot more nimble.”
2022-03-06 · Forward Guidance · The "Money Illusion" Keeps the Economy Hot | Juliette Declercq · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Has gone out of its neutral position to actually support the EU, UK and US in basically freezing central bank, the Russian central bank's assets, which is really in terms of monetary process basically it's like the nuclear option. We should really bear in mind that since the invasion of Crimea, it's been Russia's main concern to basically bunkerize the economy and part of that was obviously to en masse enough reserves to be able to live potentially without exporting without exporting energy and basically potentially deprive Europe of those obviously key”
2022-03-06 · Forward Guidance · The "Money Illusion" Keeps the Economy Hot | Juliette Declercq · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“That, but I think many geopolitical actors were probably looking for Russia to be a lot stronger than they've been, and that's basically waking up the whole Europe, NATO and putting everything back into complete revamp of geopolitics. In fact, we're basically creating a European geopolitical power. I mean, Germany is no longer pacifist. Sweden is no longer neutral. Europe, you know, you're looking at like seven years ago, we were talking about whether we're going to be bailing out EU member and we're basically now delivering jet fighters to a neighbor that's been attacked. And we shouldn't even, you know, don't forget as well, even basically Switzerland.”
2022-03-06 · Forward Guidance · The "Money Illusion" Keeps the Economy Hot | Juliette Declercq · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And that's really what's at stake here. I think what's at stake is really trying to undermine NATO and push as far as basically trying to see whether there is such thing as an Article 5, which is basically saying that if you attack a NATO member, you attack all members. And I think what really Russia is trying to show that basically NATO is potentially like brain dead, which obviously does not appear to be the case when you're actually looking at what happened this weekend. I think what happened this weekend on the back of the very strong Ukrainian resolve to fight back and not that I had any doubt about”
2022-03-06 · Forward Guidance · The "Money Illusion" Keeps the Economy Hot | Juliette Declercq · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I mean, that's a great question because we're basically adding to a macro backdrop that I find has undergone a complete paradigm shift over the crisis and especially in Europe. We're adding to that geopolitical backdrop which is undergoing a complete paradigm shift as well and especially in Europe. I think it's not noise because there won't be like going back to where we were before I think it appears pretty clearly to me that Russia wants to basically undermine the post-World War II peace order.”
2022-03-06 · Forward Guidance · The "Money Illusion" Keeps the Economy Hot | Juliette Declercq · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“By going to look for the information that they would want to be getting and look for themselves to basically add to their conviction. And what I'm really doing for clients is trying to decipher what is nice and what is the trend that we basically want to trade and how we want to use the noise to actually benefit and make the noise an opportunity, a trading opportunity.”
2022-03-06 · Forward Guidance · The "Money Illusion" Keeps the Economy Hot | Juliette Declercq · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So, my background is pretty much always in strategy, but starting at JPMorgan in 1999, I was basically strategist for emergency markets, then was given a macro book by the head of trading in New York, which I did for three, four years, had great fun, but really my passion is going to find the information, going to find the underlying trends. And I found lots of clients and friends over the years that are trading my views a lot better than I can do it myself, which basically has allowed me to keep going with my passion, which is basically sort of like leveraging traders' brain.”
2022-03-06 · Forward Guidance · The "Money Illusion" Keeps the Economy Hot | Juliette Declercq · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT