YouSaid · the spoken record

Justin Wolfers

lines on the record: 10
first: 2025-09-25
most recent: 2025-09-25
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

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“I think the US is starting from a better position. The statistical agency has still a lot of highly qualified statisticians. And you would hope there are more checks and balances institutionally for the DLS to resist some of the pressures that I've seen happening in Argentina in the past. So I'm more optimistic of the US about that. But it's clearly very concerning to me and other people who work on measurement and on trying to help institutions like the BLS improve their methods over time.”
2025-09-25 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · How Reliable is Economic Data? · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“When people saw the official index rising, they tended to believe it and they said things that are really bad. When that number actually came down, they assumed it was a complete lie. So they didn't react in terms of inflation expectations and other behaviors. So that's a big cost. People tend to assume the worst and you end up with this asymmetric type of situation. So there are lots of problems. And what's important to remember is that this trust is so fundamental to statistics is something you can easily lose and it takes a very long time to recover. Argentina went through that cycle. It took many years. for people to start thinking that the official data was creatable again. So I hope this doesn't get worse in the US, but I am concerned and there are many costs down the road if this doesn't get fixed. I'm still hopeful for the US compared to Argentina.”
2025-09-25 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · How Reliable is Economic Data? · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“started my career Because I'm from Argentina and my country had. Through a similar type of situation, inflation had risen and Pressing didn't like it, so they put some pressure on the statistical agency and they eventually fired. At the agency, and then we started seeing things like Some statistics that were no longer being reported, numbers that did not seem to coincide. with what Perception was, and I started my work on using online data to measure inflation as a response to that. It was a very period that completely destroyed the trust in official statistics in Argentina. It lasted a very long time and it brought a lot of cost to the government. Well, because people didn't want to lend to Argentina anymore. There was this feeling that Argentina could not be trusted. I find it very troubling. One story I like to tell is that”
2025-09-25 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · How Reliable is Economic Data? · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“To shake the tub and reevaluate all the processes we're doing to get the best numbers we possibly can to make the best decisions we possibly can. And that's needed from time to time. There's nothing wrong with a shakeout. So I think you get in there a good director of the BLS and get them to really try to seek out new ways of looking at things. And I'm not saying EJ Antony is the only one who would be a good director, but I think he would be. I think he'd be a fine one. I know him. I know him well. I know his work. And I tried to hire him for use of data, for accuracy, for my work. I think he's quite qualified to be able to handle this job.”
2025-09-25 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · How Reliable is Economic Data? · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Donald Trump is a very action taking person. And when he finds what he believes to be a flaw in a system, he operates on it. And he goes after it very quickly, very hard, maybe causing a little collateral damage in the process, but often and very often shaking the can hard and getting the things mixed up so that they settle in a better way in the future. And while it is not my style of doing business, his way of doing business is quite effective on enabling the system to correct mistakes. And I got to tell you, I laud him for doing it. It's not comfortable the time he does it, but I do laud him for doing that. And I don't mean to say that I thought that the commissioner or the BLS was doing anything wrong. And for sure, I am not accusing her of having done something politically wrong. But when you get these numbers and you get a post-COVID-19, it's time.”
2025-09-25 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · How Reliable is Economic Data? · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I don't know what purpose someone would fudge a number to go down a little bit and to go up a little bit what would be the motivation of someone to do that there's no election in sight what is the old phrase don't attribute to conspiracy that which can easily be explained by incompetence i just have a hard time believing that someone would fudge these data for political purposes on a monthly basis people aren't trained to be deceitful deceptive to hide things”
2025-09-25 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · How Reliable is Economic Data? · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Don't believe that's true at all. If you look at the budgets back in the olden days and stuff, I mean, come on, they have plenty of money. And they really do have plenty of money in how they distribute that money may make a difference, but budget cuts in this kind of outrageously expensive world of a government spending is not a good start for blaming that as being why the data aren't good.”
2025-09-25 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · How Reliable is Economic Data? · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Always had problems with the responses. I mean, especially when you move from communication methods like phone calls or like people going to the census, you know, knocking on doors and all that sort of stuff, you always have those problems. They're overcomable.”
2025-09-25 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · How Reliable is Economic Data? · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I am concerned about data. Whenever you get something like COVID-19, you're going to get an explosion of data. It's especially going to be serious when you use seasonal adjustments that are such like the ratio of moving average. When you use those types of seasonal adjustments, especially if you aggregate micro seasonally adjusted to macro data, you're going to get huge problems with data during those types of periods. And it's exactly what we're having right now. What is the correct seasonal for March? Now, when you look at what happened to the economy in 2020, in March, you can see how the collapse when you use a ratio to moving average system there, you're going to just get these numbers way out of sight, way out of whack. And that's where we are.”
2025-09-25 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · How Reliable is Economic Data? · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Today, I'm coming to you with a topic I've thought a lot about recently, which is economic data and how much we can trust that it's really painting a true picture of what's going on in the economy. This is particularly on my mind right now because of a few things that have happened. We've seen major revisions in some important economic indicators, and President Trump recently fired the Bureau of Labor Statistics Commissioner who oversees a production of several important economic indicators. So our concerns about the quality of economic data, as well as its vulnerability to political influences, really warranted. I'm Allison Nathan, and this is Goldman Sachs exchanges. Each month I speak with investors, policy,”
2025-09-25 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · How Reliable is Economic Data? · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT