YouSaid · the spoken record

Keith Dicker

lines on the record: 87
first: 2024-05-14
most recent: 2024-05-14
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

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“We've been doing live events twice a year. Yeah, typical one is probably 250 300 people. Like they sell out, right? This standing room only, so to speak. You know, of course, there's a bar involved. So that helps people feel, you know, very comfortable with what's happening. But we've been alternating between Toronto and Vancouver. And then we've had social events, sort of in between other places as well throughout the year. And we have some interesting sort of a docu series that we're planning to put on this year. So that will cover specific industries. So we're going down that path. But we're just thrilled with what we put together. We have fun with it. And, you know, we've created a community, which we're getting tens of thousands a week. They're tuning in to follow us.”
2024-05-14 · Forward Guidance · Why The Dollar Will Be The “Last Man Standing” Of Fiat Currencies | Keith Dicker · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Independent, objective, conversations on stuff. So we decided, hey, let's put this together and we'll see what happens. That was the name that was suggested. So for the loony, by the way, that's the name of the Canadian dollar coin. So that's what we came up with. Yep. Yeah, the dollar coin is called the loony because there's a loon, you know, the bird on it. And that's what we've been doing. We have a lot of success with it. We have live events. We have social events up here. We travel the country putting the show on. And we have a lot of fun with this. So yeah, if you have a chance, you know, check out the Looney Hour. And you'll get a different perspective for what's happening up here in Canada.”
2024-05-14 · Forward Guidance · Why The Dollar Will Be The “Last Man Standing” Of Fiat Currencies | Keith Dicker · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So it's myself and two other Canadian base is a fellow, Steve Seretsky. He's a real estate professional out in Vancouver. And then our other partner is Richard Diaz. So he's a global strategist. With global macro conversations, have some fun with it, but make it Canadian centric. Always relate everything back to say, hey, this is how it's going to affect Canada. Because it was our experience that this wasn't happening in Canada. There's nowhere to get news about this stuff. Because the news in memory, everyone's not familiar. In Canada, we have five banks. That's it. You know, and a couple of big fun companies, you know, we have two TV channels, really. So it's hard to get.”
2024-05-14 · Forward Guidance · Why The Dollar Will Be The “Last Man Standing” Of Fiat Currencies | Keith Dicker · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Very interesting, and so your point about the lack of union. It's like in the US failures in Alabama, as well as Montana. And to fund the shortfall and fill the gap, the state of Alabama or even the city of whatever mobile had to issue bonds instead of having an FDIC, which is funded by basically taxing the banks, not taxes, but receipts from the banks or the Federal Reserve, which can print money. a national government which funds itself by one bond market, which everyone in the world knows, yeah, it's totally separate markets. It's very interesting. Well, Keith, it's been a pleasure catching up with you on Twitter, people can find you on IceCap Global. Tell us more about your podcast. The Looney Hour. First of all, where's that name from and what's the format? And what do you guys talk about?”
2024-05-14 · Forward Guidance · Why The Dollar Will Be The “Last Man Standing” Of Fiat Currencies | Keith Dicker · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“The reasons why people are, you know, curious about what will happen once things go a bit wacky out there. So the short answer, I would take a euro short over a yen short at this point.”
2024-05-14 · Forward Guidance · Why The Dollar Will Be The “Last Man Standing” Of Fiat Currencies | Keith Dicker · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, but you can't buy equity, for example, because that has too much volatility. You know, you know, our fiduciaries, you know, we have this money. And so there's no euro bond issuance. The Germans issue something, the French issue one, there's a credit spread between each one, you know, it's like the only way for them to really sort of reset. And it's way too late for them to do this now, but they would really have to combine all sovereign debt for the Eurozone members, truly create one centralized fiscal house. And, you know, no way would the Italians let the Germans, you know, run them financially. The Germans will no way take responsibility for Italian debt, you know, stuff like that. So from a cultural perspective, it didn't work. And then from, you know, this economic approach hasn't worked. Some people would say, hey, Europe is still alive and fine. It's moving. Nothing bad has happened. And that is true. However, they have not resolved.”
2024-05-14 · Forward Guidance · Why The Dollar Will Be The “Last Man Standing” Of Fiat Currencies | Keith Dicker · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“That's what his name was a technocract to run the country. But they did everything that could to try to keep the union together, the Eurozone together. And they've never been able to do what they really need to do to create a market where people will say, yeah, yeah, let's park money here. So, for example, let's just say you and I want to park 50 billion this afternoon.”
2024-05-14 · Forward Guidance · Why The Dollar Will Be The “Last Man Standing” Of Fiat Currencies | Keith Dicker · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Announce and try to run and manage over the decade, your jaw would drop. And it's kind of funny to watch it because, you know, if you're able to interview anyone from the ECB in a very open conversation, you know, like what we're having here, you would say, wow, I had no idea it was that bad. So there's lots of things that happen over there. Like to give you an example, you know, they made, I think it was Berlusconi when he was the prime minister of Italy in, was it 12 or 14? I think it was 2011 or 2012. They basically, you know, that was the height of their crisis, really, because the Italians were under a lot of stress. And I think he basically said, I said we're leaving the Eurozone. We're out of here. And in the middle of May, they actually got him to resign. You know, then they brought in Mario Monti, I think.”
2024-05-14 · Forward Guidance · Why The Dollar Will Be The “Last Man Standing” Of Fiat Currencies | Keith Dicker · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Because of their response to the 0809 American housing crisis. The Americans, you guys wrote off the losses, you know, for better or worse. That's what happened. The Europeans couldn't do that because the way that they were structured, there's no national sovereign debt issuance for Europe. It's a sovereign bond issuance for each individual member. How many people in the Eurozone now? How many countries? I don't remember the number now. But you had a whole bunch of people unable to come together to really bail out their banking system. So for that reason, not only were they using QE and, you know, keeping rates low and they're negative for a long time, but if you go back and you look at Jack, you go back and you look at the number of rescue programs that they had to.”
2024-05-14 · Forward Guidance · Why The Dollar Will Be The “Last Man Standing” Of Fiat Currencies | Keith Dicker · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I think that, you know, with the hindset, people say, oh, it's definitely the yen. I think the euro has the most potential to really go, go down hard. I'm a bit of a pet name for Europe. I call it the economic fantasy land called Europe. So we'll see if that name sticks at some point soon.”
2024-05-14 · Forward Guidance · Why The Dollar Will Be The “Last Man Standing” Of Fiat Currencies | Keith Dicker · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“As for right now, the remainder of this year, I mean, we're not really in the world of giving targets, but I think best case scenario is that we stay sort of flattish from here for a while, hopefully rest. And then if we get some strong capital flows into the US either this summer or the fall, you can see equities going higher again, but not necessarily for the reason that one normally drives them higher. Like not because of a strong economy or something like that, and just simply being people saying, hey, I don't want a whole Canadian equities or I don't want to hold the German market or something to that effect.”
2024-05-14 · Forward Guidance · Why The Dollar Will Be The “Last Man Standing” Of Fiat Currencies | Keith Dicker · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, I mean, I can't speak for all Canadians, but for us, about 75, 80% of our equity portfolio is U.S. focused. So we are participating in the strong U.S. rally, and we've been correct to have that focus there. Again, right now, the downside risk for the Canadian market, it looks to be potentially significant because where we are in our economic cycle coming up. But think about equities any year if you're investing in the equity world, you should automatically every year and say, hey, I am prepared for a 20% down year because it's going to happen, right? That's just normal volatility in the equity world. We had in, was it 22? 22, 2022, we were minus 20, minus 25, I think, something like that for the US market. So that's always going to potentially exist.”
2024-05-14 · Forward Guidance · Why The Dollar Will Be The “Last Man Standing” Of Fiat Currencies | Keith Dicker · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Confuse our view with thinking that hey, we're completely out of markets because we are not We just have a very sharp eye towards what could potentially happen and then appreciate how that will affect other markets. Because again, there's a way to make money here in this world. And there's a way to make a lot of money if things do progress in the way that we think we're going to.”
2024-05-14 · Forward Guidance · Why The Dollar Will Be The “Last Man Standing” Of Fiat Currencies | Keith Dicker · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, and it doesn't have to implode, right? You can have, maybe you can have the European experience. So back when the US housing crisis settled in the Americans, they try to write off as much of this bad stuff as they could, as quickly as they could. It's sort of irrelevant how they did it and that's the approach the Americans took. The Europeans couldn't do it that way. Instead, they had to keep all the bad debt on the balance sheets of the commercial banks and slowly, slowly, slowly try to grow their banks' balance sheets out of that bad situation. So, you know, maybe the best case scenario for China is that, you know, they don't have that debt reckoning. Somehow they can grow just fast enough. I don't know. I think they're in trouble. But again, we'll see how it looks when we get this hindsight lever to use. But until then, again, don't.”
2024-05-14 · Forward Guidance · Why The Dollar Will Be The “Last Man Standing” Of Fiat Currencies | Keith Dicker · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“That's a good way to And then also, I just want to clarify for the audience when you said people think the US debt situation in China is way worse. The US debt situation on the government sector, that is where we are very levered. In China, obviously, the government debt is way, way smaller. Interestingly, they're actually announcing a $150 billion around there government bond in 10 areas as long as 2030 and even 50 years longer than the US bond market is the longest tenor. But the debt market there is small because they have such a huge trade surplus. But what you're referring to is the incredibly indebted and levered Chinese banking sector, which has a lot of bad loans on it. So those are different things. But if you add them together, yeah.”
2024-05-14 · Forward Guidance · Why The Dollar Will Be The “Last Man Standing” Of Fiat Currencies | Keith Dicker · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“It just gripped away, right? It was pretty painful if you're realm back then. But that's what's happening with the yen right now. So until we get a dramatic move, maybe we don't see anything happening. But again, I keep going back to, you had to be mindful of how all this is patched together. So don't get distracted with all these other financial stories. They're fun to watch, but there are some big themes taking place underneath the hood.”
2024-05-14 · Forward Guidance · Why The Dollar Will Be The “Last Man Standing” Of Fiat Currencies | Keith Dicker · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“With the opposite view. But everyone who's involved, I don't think this is something people need to realize and understand. From a very high end level Policy makers without a monetary policy, fiscal policy, and anything else touching the banking world, it's in no one's self-interest for another large economy to fail because then the whole system fails, you know, to just by default. So they will try to help each other. I don't think they're very proactive at doing it. I think they're always just trying to hold the shit together. But it is something to appreciate and what could potentially happen here. But again, with the yen experiencing their moment right now, it's not a moment right now for the yen. It's just a gradual trend. People may not remember back in 2002, equity markets this or global equities, MSA World Index, they finished the year probably down, I think it was 21, 24%. I think the biggest monthly move was probably one of the half or two percent.”
2024-05-14 · Forward Guidance · Why The Dollar Will Be The “Last Man Standing” Of Fiat Currencies | Keith Dicker · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I mean, it's a couple of things where you have the Hong Kong daughter, which is pegged, and then you have CNY, which is also pegged. You know, maybe they, you know, convert HKD into CNY, or maybe they peg Hong Kong dollar to CNY, or they peg it to each other. That's something funny. But they're clearly in the world where they're very concerned. And again, Yellen going there twice within a month, that should be front page discussion everywhere to say, hey, something is potentially happening here. And maybe there's some kind of a cord struck. You know, they are able to devalue the dollar relative to CNY, but it's something that they are worried about. Because remember, the Americans don't want China to fail economically. I think they want them to fail politically and for a few other reasons, maybe. I'm sure China agrees.”
2024-05-14 · Forward Guidance · Why The Dollar Will Be The “Last Man Standing” Of Fiat Currencies | Keith Dicker · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“You're not going to have everyone thinking the same way. I mean, that would make the world a very. Interesting or uninteresting place. But really, you're just looking at that incremental, like that next investor who decides that they want to leave. It's like any economy everywhere in the world. Like there are a lot of very informed people. I see capital flows coming out of China. You know, Hong Kong and HSBC is really the conduit to get out of China. I'm sure the crypto world is used as well. They're buying gold locally. It's another way to do it. Again, the Chinese people who are defending China and say, oh, yeah, US dollar, that's going to get crushed. Not the Chinese one. If that's the case, there wouldn't be this, you know, domestic crisis taking place in China. Instead, everyone would be selling their dollars or euro or anything else to go into China. Instead, you have the opposite flow taking place. As for the mechanics on what they do, Jack, maybe they...”
2024-05-14 · Forward Guidance · Why The Dollar Will Be The “Last Man Standing” Of Fiat Currencies | Keith Dicker · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yes, and Chinese interest rates are low. So I think you do get carry, unless I don't know how hard it is to borrow Chinese yuan. But you don't think the average Chinese citizen is, you know, I'm sure they're very wealthy Chinese people who said, oh my gosh, I really should have bought that extra palace in Vancouver. Instead, I had it in Chinese yuan bank account. But don't you think most Chinese people own Chinese yuan? And if they have assets, it's in Chinese real estate, which is denominated yuan. And they like I live a US dollar nominated life. And well, you obviously think about currency, so you don't live a purely Canadian dollar, but a lot of Canadians live a purely Canadian dollar denominated life that they purely think Chinese yuan and that the economy would be stronger if the yuan was weaker and that's what they would care about.”
2024-05-14 · Forward Guidance · Why The Dollar Will Be The “Last Man Standing” Of Fiat Currencies | Keith Dicker · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Their currency. And if they were to devalue, and it's likely that they need to, they do need. If they devalue, in theory, it should create more exports for them and so forth, which will increase the dollar supply coming in. But it also creates a lot of unhappy locals in that all of a sudden, the currency they're holding, their wealth just got devalued. So they're in a tough spot. And again, it's something that we look at. The probability of it, you know, something significant happening. I can't put a number on it, but it is material. It's one of these significant events that we think about all the time.”
2024-05-14 · Forward Guidance · Why The Dollar Will Be The “Last Man Standing” Of Fiat Currencies | Keith Dicker · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Conversations are happening every single day and week. I'm also not naive to think that they're having it in isolation or on their own. I think Yellen has gone to China twice in the last month, I believe. And I think the only statements that she said or announced was really related to trade. That's not her portfolio. That's not what's going across her desk. She's there for the dollar. That's what's happening. So I think just that on its own signals to the world that, hey, the Chinese are in trouble here. And of course, see what's happening with the yen. So again, it's a perfect example. So with the Bank of Japan, they're protecting the JGB market. So then by default, they have to let the yen market weaken. In China, they have to, it's the opposite. They have two main.”
2024-05-14 · Forward Guidance · Why The Dollar Will Be The “Last Man Standing” Of Fiat Currencies | Keith Dicker · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“In theory, what happens we go to a commercial bank and we say, hey, here's X1. We want the US dollar equivalent back. The commercial bank goes to the Chinese Central Bank and they say, hey, here we go, give us US dollars. The Chinese central banks, okay, here's US dollars. And they're starting to run out of US dollars. So they are experiencing, again, it's this classic situation where it's not a US domestic economy. It's outside the US, but they need US dollars not only to run their economy, but also though to control capital flows. So if they want to keep their pegged FX rate where it is within a certain band, by default, they're selling dollars to try to maintain it. As to whether they would devalue or not, I'm sure these”
2024-05-14 · Forward Guidance · Why The Dollar Will Be The “Last Man Standing” Of Fiat Currencies | Keith Dicker · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“The challenge with China is that if you think the Americans and Canadians have this excessive debt problem, it's even bigger in China domestically. Their banks are even more over-levered if that's the correct word to use than banks in Canada, the US, and elsewhere. The regulatory capital, I don't know what you would call it in China, but they have a ton of bad loans that are not being recognized and realized. So the result of that, not only you have a slowing domestic economy, but if you're in China, you're saying, oh, I'm getting the hell out of here. Like, why, well, again, like, why would you keep your money in a market if all you can see is, you know, bad news coming. And so, you know, if you and I are in China and we figure out how to get our money out, you know, through legitimate channels.”
2024-05-14 · Forward Guidance · Why The Dollar Will Be The “Last Man Standing” Of Fiat Currencies | Keith Dicker · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, I think China screwed. I mean, to use a very popular economic financial adjective. I mean, again, if people are not, China has a closed capital account. It's like the hotel California. You can put money in, but you're probably not going to get it out.”
2024-05-14 · Forward Guidance · Why The Dollar Will Be The “Last Man Standing” Of Fiat Currencies | Keith Dicker · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“To impact portfolios for elderly couple or someone younger who's saving for this or that. Because having one of these risk-off moments, it can be really unsettling for people.”
2024-05-14 · Forward Guidance · Why The Dollar Will Be The “Last Man Standing” Of Fiat Currencies | Keith Dicker · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Very strong budgets prior to the current one. So it's not a political statement at all. But again, if you're able to see it that way, Jack, then you know the only way to sustain this is that you need economic growth and tax revenues to grow faster than debt growth. And if our deficits are always getting wider and wider, especially what you mentioned there in the US and the economies are slowing because it's taking either more people to produce the same dollar output or excessively more debt to produce the same dollar output. Again, it's setting up the world for this, I don't know what it's going to look sound like or feel like or where it comes. But again, for us, managing family money. But by that, I mean client money, you know, across the country, we think about it and we really need to appreciate how is that going to be?”
2024-05-14 · Forward Guidance · Why The Dollar Will Be The “Last Man Standing” Of Fiat Currencies | Keith Dicker · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I don't have a view that something would not happen again. Anything could happen in this world we're in. I think we have to look at each situation going to be always a little bit different than one before. You know, history rhymes, but it's not, you know, identical. Again, though, we just have to appreciate that the world has spent perfectly aligned for a sovereign debt crisis to occur again. And again, it's not just one country or one region or economy. Everyone has completely binged on a continuously lower and lower rates to run their economies, run increasingly larger deficits in Canada. Again, we're running 40 billion a year now, right? From the fourth year in a row. We had a balanced budget here back in 2016, I think, 2015, 16. And both parties ran very.”
2024-05-14 · Forward Guidance · Why The Dollar Will Be The “Last Man Standing” Of Fiat Currencies | Keith Dicker · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Bullish global economy kind of market again. Again, it doesn't always have to be in constants, right? You always have to be prepared to slightly adjust what is acceptable risk and what isn't.”
2024-05-14 · Forward Guidance · Why The Dollar Will Be The “Last Man Standing” Of Fiat Currencies | Keith Dicker · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, I mean, clearly back then. Know central banks just flooded the world with Unorthodox policy they could to stabilize everything. And as a risk on market. So in a risk on market, again, capital leaves the US and goes elsewhere. Are we in a risk on market right now? We could be. Yeah, I mean, I mean, equities seem to be doing really well. I think a lot of people would be hard pressed to say why they're doing well. I mean, my answer would be people are buying, right? Capital is flowing in. Don't worry about valuations and all that stuff. But again, we are increasingly getting closer and closer to a probability event. And maybe it's not even financial or economic market. Like maybe it's geopolitical, but something would happen that would spark everything that sort of, you know, come off kilter again. And then when that is happening, then central banks will rush in and then try to fix everything again. And then you go back to that bullish or bearish US dollar.”
2024-05-14 · Forward Guidance · Why The Dollar Will Be The “Last Man Standing” Of Fiat Currencies | Keith Dicker · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“In all that, and probably the single biggest negative looking event in isolation is the US, you know, their fiscal monetary position. But remember, though, the US is really, you know, it provides dollars for the world. It is the central bank for the world and so forth. So I think that's our view is a bit different, where there I'm sure on Twitter, there might be one or two dollar bearers out there.”
2024-05-14 · Forward Guidance · Why The Dollar Will Be The “Last Man Standing” Of Fiat Currencies | Keith Dicker · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“It's better to look at actions that's supposed to words, what people are saying. So, yes, on its own, the US situation, it's clearly unstable, unsustainable. Like that will not exist forever. But sort of goes back to, you know, what is the logical path or process that we're going to take as bad as the US is, again, because the world, you know, it needs to eat US dollars all the time to survive, the crisis will begin outside the US. And at the very end, it will be the dollar, which will be the last one standing. And that's when all of a sudden, you know, the debt does matter, you know, the deficit matters. The trade deficit matters and so forth. But until that time where they figure out another new system that they can use, you know, again, that's our view. Because again, it's pretty, we talked earlier about, hey, it's easy to talk about, you know, pessimism or negative events.”
2024-05-14 · Forward Guidance · Why The Dollar Will Be The “Last Man Standing” Of Fiat Currencies | Keith Dicker · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, I mean, my God, the US situation in isolation, it's pretty frightening when you look at it. How is this possible? And it was kind of interesting. Like in the investment world, we're all aware of it. But yet I'm not sensing anyone in Washington or at the political level. It seems to be, if they are worried about it, you know, it's.”
2024-05-14 · Forward Guidance · Why The Dollar Will Be The “Last Man Standing” Of Fiat Currencies | Keith Dicker · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Makes sense, and then how are you thinking about the US production of dollars, both in terms of the fiscal deficit, how much the US government is borrowing, which has to be absorbed by US savers and central banks, although not now. And then the rest of the world, as well as the trade deficit, if we're running a $70 billion trade deficit. Every month in the US, theoretically, that means that other countries have to buy $70 billion worth of treasuries or buy $70 billion worth of dollars. I know that has not been a great, definitely not a timing tool, for example. We actually ran a surplus for the first time in 2000 and then the dollar depreciated right after that for close to a decade. Are you getting a little bit worried by the volumes of debt?”
2024-05-14 · Forward Guidance · Why The Dollar Will Be The “Last Man Standing” Of Fiat Currencies | Keith Dicker · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, for the majority of our clients, Jack, we're managing family wealth. And so I wouldn't call a lot of exotic kind of positions the more plain vanilla that we're able to use versus using different products that are available to everyone”
2024-05-14 · Forward Guidance · Why The Dollar Will Be The “Last Man Standing” Of Fiat Currencies | Keith Dicker · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“That's the cost of your hedge though, right? Yeah, like there's no free lunch in the world And if there is one, you know, it doesn't stay free for very long.”
2024-05-14 · Forward Guidance · Why The Dollar Will Be The “Last Man Standing” Of Fiat Currencies | Keith Dicker · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“But again, that's what everyone's been backed into right now. So I kind of love it. You know, I think the world has been lulled to sleep with what's happening in the US right now, you know, markets, equities are strong and the economy is okay, you know, we're getting distracted with a lot of other non-financial market factors that are taking place. Elections are coming up everywhere around the world. You know, again, it's a pretty interesting time. To assess risk and to figure out what you're comfortable with.”
2024-05-14 · Forward Guidance · Why The Dollar Will Be The “Last Man Standing” Of Fiat Currencies | Keith Dicker · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“A normal cycle, that is the world, that is the FX market will come down first. Again, because you have to understand how global capital moves around the world. In great times, it's going to try to seek higher return with a lower amount of risk. And that's out the EM world. And then when liquidity begins to dry up, remember earlier we talked about US dollar supply availability outside the US, you're looking at the EM world. So money, you know, money capital should leave that world and flow into the US. So that's the logical process. But if we get a crisis taking place in the currency world, I mean, like it's probably not going to be one or two or three-year experience. This could be a one, three, five month experience. That's it. And, you know, I'm pretty confident central banks will be reacting very aggressively to try to control everything.”
2024-05-14 · Forward Guidance · Why The Dollar Will Be The “Last Man Standing” Of Fiat Currencies | Keith Dicker · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Still be doing well. You could have the Fed still talking hockeys with inflation and things like that. But it is set up for potentially, and again, people watching or listening, don't say, yeah, ice caps at Canadian is going to hit a hard recession. Again, what we're saying is the probability of it happening is a lot higher than once expected. And more importantly, people are not ready for it, even if it did happen. And these are the things that we think about all the time. I just think it's a wonderful world. Like in our world, Jack, like if you wake up in the morning, you're not excited. We're probably in the wrong business because it's so many interesting things.”
2024-05-14 · Forward Guidance · Why The Dollar Will Be The “Last Man Standing” Of Fiat Currencies | Keith Dicker · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Canadian pestestrian being experienced in Alberta, the energy centric province in Canada, it happens in Toronto or the Greater Toronto Authority, the GTA out in Vancouver and so forth. And if that happens, that's going to rip the soul right out of Canada. And that's because we haven't experienced it before. People will not be ready for it. And you want to hope it doesn't happen. And hope's not a good strategy, of course, with anything. So instead, you have to prepare in case it does happen. Because in that environment, the Bank of Canada will rush in and bail out the bond market, but it'll leave the currency market wide open. It'll be sort of like the Japanese experience that we're seeing today. So you can see Canadian dollar come down pretty aggressively. At the same time, you know, while the American economy, you know, they're not aligned.”
2024-05-14 · Forward Guidance · Why The Dollar Will Be The “Last Man Standing” Of Fiat Currencies | Keith Dicker · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So, back in 2015, when all went from 100 bucks down to 20 pretty quickly, Alberta got hit pretty hard. And the way if you want to understand Canadiana, for anyone who's not here, people in Toronto and elsewhere, they don't care about Alberta. They say, yeah, screw you, Alberta, you deserve it. We don't care about you. Because Canadians have never experienced a broad aggregate economic recession, they don't have any experience with it. It's not in the recent memory. And the Canadian economy over the last decade especially, because remember, rates are low. It's cheap to borrow money. People are coming in. Housing is going higher. Banks are lending out to everyone. And we have a very concentrated banking sector here in Canada. If we get a recession and it does hit a slippery slope and rolls off, and it doesn't matter why, but it does, instead of...”
2024-05-14 · Forward Guidance · Why The Dollar Will Be The “Last Man Standing” Of Fiat Currencies | Keith Dicker · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“In our normal moving world it would be the EM universe with the emerging market universe and So that's what should. So, we have limited to no exposures to the EM world. Because if we do get a sudden slowdown in the global economy or a crisis does begin to escalate somewhere, you could see that world come off pretty quickly. But even up here in Canada, though, I mentioned earlier, Jack, that In Canada, it's the only recessions that anyone can remember right now. It's always involved the oil market. And if you know you're Canadian geography and economy, when we have a crisis in the oil world, the energy world, the province of Alberta gets hit pretty hard.”
2024-05-14 · Forward Guidance · Why The Dollar Will Be The “Last Man Standing” Of Fiat Currencies | Keith Dicker · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“That again, the likelihood for financial stress re escalating again outside the US, that builds the case for the dollar, screaming higher. Again, you always have to think that this is not a normal cycle we're in. Because a normal cycle, it wouldn't have from 2010 to call it 21, again, over a decade where there's been no price discovery in the bond market or the world collectively had zero and negative rates in QE. You know, I bumped into a young gentleman the other day and he's in the business and he said, yeah, Keith, I've been doing this now for 10 years. And he had it figured out. And I said, how can you have it figured out? Your whole career has been a period with zero rates and QE. Like we are moving to something different. And that's all people have to understand and appreciate. And I think that's the best way to survive.”
2024-05-14 · Forward Guidance · Why The Dollar Will Be The “Last Man Standing” Of Fiat Currencies | Keith Dicker · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I think with the dollar, it won't be a long term. Strengthening or weakening trend in any either direction, you're rather going to get like an enormous surge higher. So DXY, where we are like 105 now this morning. No, maybe we go 105 to 10, 20, 25. Something like that extremely quickly. Or maybe they try to go in the other direction with it. But again, the world doesn't exist very well, you know, with a strengthening US dollar. So, I mean, like we don't have this definitive view. This is absolutely going to happen. You know, it's definitely a strong dollar world in that set. Instead, you know, as fiduciaries, we need to really understand and appreciate that the world is moving with the dollar. And because we are aligned with the at the end of this secular movement with rates and the death that's been accumulated on top of it.”
2024-05-14 · Forward Guidance · Why The Dollar Will Be The “Last Man Standing” Of Fiat Currencies | Keith Dicker · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“How seriously do you take that as a threat to your bullish dollar view that central banks are coordinating to keep the dollar down? I mean, I'm not saying that they did that intentionally. I mean, well, the federal reserves are definitely extended swap lines in the spring of 2020, but just keeping rates low and doing a bunch of quantitative easing is probably net net bearish for the dollar. In other words, is the Federal Reserve your worst enemy. In the same way that it was your best friend in 2022?”
2024-05-14 · Forward Guidance · Why The Dollar Will Be The “Last Man Standing” Of Fiat Currencies | Keith Dicker · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Be happening, but we could be in this sort of this 2018 situation again, where maybe the Fed has to act sooner than they want because of crisis or financial stress outside of the U.S.”
2024-05-14 · Forward Guidance · Why The Dollar Will Be The “Last Man Standing” Of Fiat Currencies | Keith Dicker · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, I mean, the Americans then were raising. Were they going to a quarter point every second meeting? I think that's what was happening when they first started going higher. And they telegraphed that way out to the future. You know, they were so slow trying not to disrupt America because they had to raise rates higher. But eventually they got to the point where they started, you know, sucking capital out of the emerging market world, you know, out of the other major currencies and into the US. So eventually, you know, the Fed had to stop hiking. So, you know, I think that's the same path that will be happening now this year. And so for that reason, you know, when does the Fed cut or by how much? I think they are, you know, they're getting phone calls every day from other central banks, of course. And they should talk to each other. I mean, that's what you should.”
2024-05-14 · Forward Guidance · Why The Dollar Will Be The “Last Man Standing” Of Fiat Currencies | Keith Dicker · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“You know, the Europeans, the ECB, they're being asked would you cut rates before Powell? In Japan, we're saying, would you cut rates? And they're saying, hey, we always cut rates. It's something they're very mindful of. And the proper response from all central banks is, hey, we don't manage the currency. We let it develop as it should. We don't talk about it. We're independent. follow global economics, but we're not super focused on what the Americans are going to do. We're going to do what's best for Canada here first. That's all BS. I mean, they're absolutely watching what the Americans are doing because it really matters. So if here in Canada, if the Bank of Canada, if we cut rates now in the June meeting and say the Fed doesn't cut rates, they'll get reflected in the currency right away. And same with the Europeans. Remember back in 20.”
2024-05-14 · Forward Guidance · Why The Dollar Will Be The “Last Man Standing” Of Fiat Currencies | Keith Dicker · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“That's a good point, Jack. Don't confuse the view of a strong dollar view with the US economy is so much stronger and everyone else, it will stay strong. It's likely that the cycle is delayed. That's all. So if Canada rolls over into recession and same with the Europeans and elsewhere, then it comes down to, hey, where the Americans pull everyone else up or do the Americans get dragged lower? You know, we're in a global world and it's likely American growth will begin to roll over as well. So the view for a strong dollar is not necessarily, hey, the American economy is taking off at all times. It's going to be awesome. You do have that relative play in place. But of course, then when you go back to the central bank, you look at interest rate differentials. I know up here in Canada, the Bank of Canada is asked on every meeting. They're specifically asked, would you cut rates before the...”
2024-05-14 · Forward Guidance · Why The Dollar Will Be The “Last Man Standing” Of Fiat Currencies | Keith Dicker · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And now back to the And so you're much more bullish on the Is another part because you think other countries won't because their economy is weaker won't be able to have interest rates as high as the Federal Reserve at 5.3. And Japanese interest rates are still at zero. Basically, it's part of the reason why you like the dollar is just because it's positive carry relative to the euro and in particular the yen.”
2024-05-14 · Forward Guidance · Why The Dollar Will Be The “Last Man Standing” Of Fiat Currencies | Keith Dicker · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT