YouSaid · the spoken record

Keith Terry

lines on the record: 24
first: 2018-05-21
most recent: 2018-05-21
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

Every line below is reproduced as it was said and linked to the record it came from. Nothing here is summarised or generated. Directory · Search · Corrections

“The mixed reality augmented virtual reality, mixed reality market that we were talking about, that's not evolutionary, that's revolutionary in terms of how we interact with technology. That will ultimately be the bigger market, and that's the one we think will be very transformative over the course of the next 10, 20 years. If you had to say in the next three years or five years, it's a little bit harder, I would say voice is easier, more and more apps are going to be voice-enabled over that time period. But is that the transformative market? Probably not. It's an evolutionary process in terms of how we're interacting with these devices, but it's not wholesale changing how people communicate and do things.”
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“But there's going to be cases where you're going to want to use a screen. For example, if you use these for a recipe, you probably want to see the recipe versus asking it to read you the recipe every time you forget what's next in the list of steps like I always do.”
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“And some of them have, and depending on how big your house is, you're going to have a bunch of these in your home. There might be a few places where you're going to want to have that screen. So if you say, I want to look at Beachfront hotels in Miami, you're probably not going to want to just take the written review, what's spoken to you. You're probably going to want to see pictures of what the rooms look like. That's very different than if you always stay at the same hotel in Miami and you know exactly where you want to stay and then they could say do you want to stay at the place you stayed at the last three times you went to Miami that's fine and then they could kind of cut out some of the middlemen the hoteliers could”
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“It's on your phone And that's also where it becomes interesting because you start to think about for voice-enabled digital assistants to gather or share for those items that you might want to look at, the question is, are you going to need a screen? Are these digital assistants going to need screens over time?”
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“Search today serves back a lot of results, and you can sort through them a little bit visually, whether it's on your phone or your computer. Voice is trickier. The first product that's offered up is going to be the dominant one, and people aren't going to sit around waiting to hear three results.”
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“And just being able to speak into your Alexa and say, add AAA batteries to my shopping list this week, or order me AAA batteries if they capture that sale and they fulfill it with an Amazon branded product, or even if they've used a third party brand versus me going physically to the store to go buy those batteries, that's helping Amazon capture more share of the e-commerce market.”
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“And my colleague Keith Terry has written about this recently, how you go about buying goods and services. So if you're using an Amazon Alexa and you say, I need AAA batteries, it's going to fulfill that order using an Amazon branded battery. So that's great for Amazon. If you want a different brand, you would actually have to ask for that brand. And so it will make it easier for Amazon to help steer people more towards Amazon goods and services. Also, it reduces the friction of e-commerce in a way. So that's another positive. It helps drive more and more share of e-commerce, which obviously Amazon's already the leader in. They're getting roughly half of.”
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“Paramedic that's riding in the back of the ambulance connect real time with a trauma surgeon back at the hospital so they could actually view through the glasses that they're wearing what's really the gravity of the situation that they're going to deal with when the ambulance might pull up to the hospital. We're kind of excited about the entire market in terms of where we think it's going to go. People think of this whole market and they think of video games. While that will be very important at some point and will be a big market, I think it's going to change the way we engage with everything.”
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“I guess the ones that I think are the most exciting today, and again, there's consumer ones and there's enterprise ones, but certainly on the e-commerce side, being able to try on an outfit without having to go to the store and knowing that you're going to like it on your body. That would be great versus having everything shipped to your house and then going back to UPS the next day and shipping 80% of it back. So that would be a benefit for everybody. There's really interesting use cases there, but the education side, I think, is one that we're also really focused on and passionate about, and I think that's very interesting. The revolution that you could have in healthcare and being able to deliver healthcare services from maybe doctors here in the States that want to volunteer their time to places outside of the United States where maybe doctors aren't as readily available, or it could be helping that”
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“It's not a question of whether this ever happens. It's more just a question of when it happens, and don't envision a scenario where five, ten years from now, we're going to look back and say, wow, I can't believe we ever thought that was going to be a market. The biggest question that people have now is what are those key applications that help solve this chicken and the egg problem? You could look at what Tim Cook has been saying at Apple and public speaking engagements where he's mentioned at some point Apple will probably launch a phone that will be a headset. So you look back, I mean, Google Glass had that. It was just way too early. And maybe that'll end up being a flop, but certainly people are spending a lot of money and time trying to figure out how to change the computing interface that we're all used to today.”
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“You will see price declines. I mean, we've already seen hardware pricing come down about 25, 30 percent over the last few years since we first started writing about this in early 2016. And hardware markets, that's what happens. You get price compression. So if you kind of compare this back to the PC market in the early days, PCs were very expensive and now you could buy a PC for $300. Typically what you see is anywhere from 5% to 10% a year price degradation. And the hardware manufacturers benefit even though prices are coming down because they just get better and better at producing at large volume and then they get economies of scale.”
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“And this is pretty typical of any hardware market where price points are high, and you're trying to nourish this ecosystem and you really need the early adopters to carry the weight to the market on their backs. And you're slowly starting to see that, and I think the VC funding that we mentioned before is a great example of how you're seeing that start to change. You've got the recent release of ready Player One, for example, which is a movie that Steven Spielberg made, which is about living in this type of a world where there's just more awareness being drawn into this. And so we think it'll happen, but typically what you see is it always takes a little bit longer for the market penetration of these devices to get to a big enough point, then you start to see the flywheel happen of the application ecosystem.”
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“One of the challenges, as I mentioned before, is always the chicken and the egg. You need content to attract users, but to attract more and more users, you also need lower hardware price points. The developers will pay attention to this when there's a huge market for them to sell into.”
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“It's training for doctors or training for students. You could be at a public school in New York City but walk the great wall of China, which not many kids in the United States are going to get the opportunity to go do that, but you could really immerse yourself in this type of technology. So I think it's going to touch all aspects of people's lives. But again, enterprise and consumer are going to be big beneficiaries, but the one that we raised the forecast for the most in the most recent part of the research was related to e-commerce.”
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“$107 It's across the board. The one that we There is a way, as I mentioned before, the furniture example, seeing the sofa or the dining room table in your dining room before you buy it, seeing what it might look like with the type of decor that you already have there maybe saves the retailer a lot of money in terms of shipping things and then having to restock that item that maybe is no longer new. There are a multitude of reasons why e-commerce should really benefit and continue to accelerate the share it's taking from the online world as a result of this type of technology. So that's one in particular that we raised our forecast for quite a bit. But I want to make sure we're clear. This is going to be equally transformative in the enterprise space as well. We had been modeling those by different industry verticals for quite some time, how healthcare gets delivered will be changed and is being changed by this type of technology, how education is done, whether”
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“Yeah, we think ultimately this AR, VR, mixed reality movement will change the way we interact with technology forever. And it'll be the next big computing platform. So if you look back when mobile became big, there was a desktop revolution and then mobile came out of nowhere. And there were times when Apple launched the first iPhone where there were some executives that mocked it. Like, who's going to want to carry a phone that's this big? So people were a little bit taken off guard by how quickly mobile and the smartphone revolution, which really helped drive mobile, became so dominant and it changed business models. The computing power in our pocket today is what a supercomputer would have had, say, 20 or 30 years ago. So the answer to your question is more that people have seen the type of disruption that occurred from desktop to mobile, and I think they want to make sure that they're not”
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“Total funding last year for ARNVR was about 1.8 billion dollars. And you mentioned VC before. We're seeing obviously traditional VC investors, but we're also seeing some large companies put money into the space. I can imagine why VC investors, but why are different investors looking at this differently?”
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“It kind of depends how you want to look at it. If you're looking at it from a hardware perspective, clearly Facebook's Oculus would come to mind. You'd have HTC. You would have PlayStation. There's also people like Samsung. There are people like Apple that while they're not big players today, could be big players. Over time, it really would depend which layer of the stack. If you wanted to just look at raw dollars today and who has the most market share, the hardware players that I mentioned, the Facebooks, the HTCs, the Sony PlayStations would be the biggest market share because hardware is such a big price point. Typically, in these types of markets, you would see the software and the hardware piece of the equation be roughly the same size. So each represent 50% of the market, and then it would just go from there.”
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“There's a lot of different ways you could monetize this. So, you've got players that are actually making the consoles, people like Facebook make Oculus, and Oculus is a platform for which you can see these. They've got game studios. You've got people trying to go after the gaming aspect of it. You have people trying to do enterprise applications. You have the engines to write software applications. So you need development environments for people to write applications to take advantage of this. So there is going to be an entire ecosystem. You're going to need hardware for this to happen. You're going to need an infrastructure stack of software for this to happen. And then you're going to have applications on top of it. And by the way, there's also massive bandwidth usage that's going to happen when you get to things like 5G, for example, that will make consumption of this technology much easier.”
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“And so I think this is helping to start eliminate that. The more developers you have developing applications that can take advantage of this technology, the more people are going to want to use it and the more people that use it means more units get sold and then ultimately the price points start to come down.”
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“In the last two years, you've seen accessibility increase, you've seen some price points drop, and that's important. But iOS 11 was very important because now roughly 70% of every Apple phone that's out there, because they're not all necessarily upgraded to iOS 11 at this point. But you've seen that become a developer platform, what they call AR kit, and you've seen with the latest iPhones, they've got the dual cameras for you to be able to do this, where it's really created a lot of interest in the developer community. So we've seen VC investment start to uptick as a result. I would say iOS 11 and what you've seen from Samsung's new release from their phone as well is going to help drive the ecosystem. There's a little bit of a chicken in the egg conundrum when you launch these new technologies. And this is no exception, what we've seen with augmented in virtual reality.”
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“This market has been evolving for a long time, so well before we even started writing about it and it's had its fits and starts and we started paying increasing attention to it in 2016. And what we've seen over the last few years is an even bigger focus and commitment from almost every major technology company. Everyone's looking to claim their stake in the ecosystem and investment has been increasing as a result.”
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“Exactly. So you are completely immersed in the world around you is completely virtual. There's also experiences in the middle. And what some people refer to as mixed reality. And these blend features of AR and they blend features of VR. What I mean by that is a perfect example would be, let's just say you're shopping for furniture in your house and you have an empty room and you want to see what a sofa might look like in your living room with a table and maybe some lamps. You could do that where you'd be able to look through and see what from maybe it's Wayfair or pick your favorite retailer's website where you would be able to see and envision what their products would look like in your actual living room. So again, it's blending the worlds that you can see with images that are virtual”
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“Yeah, great place to level set everybody. So when we talk about it, extended reality refers to the entire category of immersive experiences that someone could have. The world around you becomes your computing interface. An AR experience can be simply an overlay of information on top of the world we live in. So, for example, it could be as easy as a Snapchat mask if you've ever taken a picture and put a Snapchat mask on top of it. VR experiences are completely immersive. So think about it. If you're wearing a VR headset, you're wearing something where your field of view is entirely blocked. That's not the case in AR. typically it might be you walking through the pyramids in Egypt or the Great Wall of China or it could be you playing a video game”
2018-05-21 · Goldman Sachs Exchanges · Beyond VR and AR: Extended Reality to Transform Our Lives as Consumers · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT